Slowdown in NJ?

From the Star Ledger:

Here are the N.J. towns where the housing market may be cooling the most

Here are the New Jersey towns that have the largest supply of houses and how many months supply they have, according to data from the Otteau Group:

1. Alpine – 11.8

2. Loveladies – 6.8

3. Saddle River – 5.4

4. Far Hills – 5.1

5. Atlantic City – 4.9

6. Guttenberg – 4.8

7. Delaware Township – 4.8

8. Millstone – 4.7

9. Rocky Hill Borough – 4.3

10. Long Beach Township – 4.1

11. Fort Lee – 4.1

12. Long Branch City – 4

13. Harvey Cedars – 4

14. Surf City – 4

15. Lambertville – 3.9

16. West Long Branch – 4

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60 Responses to Slowdown in NJ?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. grim says:

    If a list of the worst 16(?) still has a 4 handle, that’s not really so bad.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Alpine, Far Hills and Saddle River… no matter the market, these towns are in a league of their own. Remove them from the list because they move to a different beat. Other than those towns, we can honestly say that practically any town above I-195 is a dog fight to get a house. List it and it’s gone. List it in a town with a walkable center of town and a train and you’re in for a full out, bar room brawl. 28% rise in two years? Doesn’t matter… it’ll be sticky sideways at most. Chubby Mary will get her price or damn close to it. Interest rates be damned.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Real Estate and stocks are the only investments that will make you money. Only if you have patience. Precious metals are just collectibles, just something to look at and make you feel good. They’re a hobby, not an investment. They’re not even a hedge against inflation. Condos and townhouse purchases are like rolling the dice. I shudder when I think about those as a purchase. Free standing houses or nothing, in the northeast. If you’re in Dubuque, Iowa or Fort Wayne, Indiana or Springfield, Missouri… good luck.

  5. 3b says:

    Fast: It’s a 43 percent (approximately) rise in 2 years, rates form 3 percent to 7 in about a year, that will most certainly have an affect. It’s just getting started in our area.

  6. Fast Eddie says:


    Let Grim, ChiFi and others weigh in on the prices forward in the NYC metro area. Unless I can walk into a house for sale thinking there’s something wrong with it at a curiously lower price, then nothing will change. 20 plus years of house buying, selling and searching has convinced me that roaches and house prices are the only things that will survive a nuclear blast in our area.

  7. crushednjmillenial says:

    Part of the Fort Lee inventory is houses that try to price as if they are in Alpine, Far Hills, or Saddle River.

    For example, the new construction house linked below has been for sale for 14 months, through the highs of 2021 without being sold. The ask has been reduced by $800k, but I suppose it might still be way overpriced?

    116 Bluff Rd.
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Asking $3.5M
    Taxes: $80k/year (according to public tax records, not the listing)
    6 Bed/ 6 Ba.
    New Construction

  8. crushednjmillenial says:

    Lots of beach towns on the high inventory list . . . people dumping summer homes due to job/income precarity or trying to catch the high price before the party is over?

  9. grim says:

    Expensive properties sitting seems like the biggest part of the story.

    Loveladies, Far Hills, Harvey Cedars.

    Seems more like expensive discretionary purchases – and yes, sorry, paying $3m for a primary residence is a discretionary purchase. I know real estate isn’t typically considered in the category of discretionary spending, but in this case, it’s just simply a luxury good.

  10. 3b says:

    Fast: It’s interest rate driven. 3 percent to 7 percent or more in less than 1 year. Where is the additional 1500 to 2000 a month coming from to pay the monthly mortgage. Of course, many won’t sell and give up those low rates, there are many others who will sell for various reasons.

  11. grim says:

    On the interest rates, you are already seeing talking heads stating that the fed is going to be cutting rates significantly by the end of 2023, and you are going to see mortgage rates fall.

    There are plenty of folks that would buy today, even with the rate, believing they will be able to refinance later. We talked about this strategy here years back. Better to take the low price with a high rate, compared to the opposite. You can always refi, you can’t ever renegotiate the closing price.

  12. Fast Eddie says:


    This one decided to go from 2.8 mil to 3.5 mil on Bluff Road:–2005922442

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Better to take the low price with a high rate, compared to the opposite. You can always refi, you can’t ever renegotiate the closing price.

    We’ve talked about this here many times.

  14. grim says:

    Wow, that style just isn’t aging well at all. 10 years in and it all seems dated, gaudy, way too busy. Far too many textures, colors, and finishes. That kitchen is absolutely awful, they are probably losing 3/4 of their addressable market with just those kitchen photos. They are better off gutting the kitchen and dumping in another $200k to put in something that doesn’t look like Trump Tower circa 1992.

  15. grim says:

    By the way, all the Jersey shore vultures are down in FL trying to pick the easy meat and try for a Sandy 2.0 replay.

  16. 3b says:

    Grim: I saw that article, whether it’s right or not is something else. The talking heads were talking about a Fed pivot in July and the Fed cutting rates by year end. I didn’t believe that for a minute. Now is the end of 2023, and mortgage rates cut to 5 percent. As for plenty of folks ready to buy now, then why aren’t they? There are houses out there I see them in my town and surrounding towns. Additionally, we will have some sort of recession, and the soft landing talk has ended, so that will impact as well. If the Fed wants to tame inflation then you have to deflate asset prices as well. We are seeing that in the equity market. I simply can’t see how we can have a 43 percent rise in house prices in two years, which is unprecedented, without a correction as well. Time will tell.

  17. grim says:

    We are seeing that in the equity market. I simply can’t see how we can have a 43 percent rise in house prices in two years, which is unprecedented, without a correction as well. Time will tell.

    I don’t buy this number, it’s not the case. Even looking across my own neighborhood, looking at comps, some historical sales, if I use my own purchase date as a benchmark, you are talking about 3.5% per year since 2011ish. Any comps showing bigger jumps had significant remodels.

    Not saying there isn’t room for a correction though.

  18. crushednjmillenial says:

    115 Bluff and gaudy . . .

    Yes, this house was built in 2012 and they put in the Versailles-looking ironwork. Looks tacky and dated to my eyes today in 2022.

    I think the outside of the house still looks good, though.

  19. 3b says:

    Crushed: In my eyes it was just as ugly in 2012; time did not make it uglier.

  20. grim says:

    All of that “tuscany” style stone and tile, the “glazed” cabinetry (that just looks dirty), is all the kiss of death now.

  21. crushednjmillenial says:

    Anyone want to toss out a timeline of what was “most-desired” exterior house looks in North Jersey over the years:

    Present: starting to reject the white and black look – more dissimilar materials, as influenced by apartment building exteriors and breweries
    2015-present: all white exterior cladding with black windows; over-sized floor-to-ceiling windows
    1995-2010: Tony Soprano house beige brick in the center-hall colonial style; also pink brick or dark red brick; maybe beige stucco rather than brick
    ??? – Bi-Level houses
    ??? – Split Level houses
    ??? – the age of the Cape Cod

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    Bi-Level houses: That aging cedar shake today that was installed in the 60s and 70s. It’s mostly bi-levels and some split-levels.

  23. RC NJ says:

    Is that Paulie Walnuts’ house?

  24. grim says:

    And what makes it worse, is that current trend and style is all about lighter colors, solids, minimal use of texture and accents (clean marbles with minimal but distinct veining, etc). Solid faces and colors on the cabinetry, very clean lines, two tones are huge. Whites, Grays, Blues. Brushed brass is the new satin nickel or oil bronze.
    Minimalistic/accent usage of lighter colored woods.

    Hate to say it, but that crazy “tuscan” that everyone thought was “timeless”, was anything but.

  25. grim says:

    2015-present: all white exterior cladding with black windows; over-sized floor-to-ceiling windows

    Aka Modern Farmhouse – this is far more recent, probably 2019ish forward.

  26. grim says:

    In case anyone is wondering:

    Build this in NJ right now, and you’ll sell it at asking, zero zero problems.

  27. Ex says:


    $45k a year. Taxes.

  28. Jim says:

    There should be an enormous concern for inflation in SS, which has not really been addressed here or in the media.
    Obamas 4 year increase 3.23%.
    Trumps 4 year increase 7.7 %.
    Bidens 2 year increase 14.6% X 2 more years 29.2%. ( estimated but probably higher)

    This is insane, and SS will be bankrupt much earlier than originally predicted. Jay Powell can NOT let up on the gas pedal and PIVOT. We need smarter people in government instead of the ones that are only trying to profit for themselves.

    I am not sure anyone realizes how dire this actually is, when you vote do it wisely.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Rough out there. Terrible time to be taking girls out to date at overpriced restaurants.

    “22% of millennials are going into debt from dating due to inflation, per CNBC.”

  30. Ex says:

    Kanye – new hero of the Reich Wing.

  31. Phoenix says:

    “We need smarter people in government instead of the ones that are only trying to profit for themselves.”

    I can sum that up for you in three words.

    That ain’t happenin’

  32. Fast Eddie says:

    Fuel oil and diesel levels are at lows not seen since 1951. That Boar’s Head turkey breast at a ridiculous $12.99 per pound is about to go to an absurd level of $14.99 per pound or better.

  33. Phoenix says:

    Rough out there. Terrible time to be taking girls out to date at overpriced restaurants.

    Plenty of women go on dates just for the free food now. It’s called a foodie call.

    According to a study by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, some ladies are willing to wine and dine with a man they do not like just to get a chance to eat a free meal. Mostly, ladies perch on unsuspecting men when they are strapped for cash and badly crave a well cooked meal without having to pay for it.
    Researchers first focused on 820 women who were asked whether they have such habits and 23% attested to being “leaches,” who prey on men. A second focus group of 327 women also proved 33% of the group had a tendency of dating in exchange for free meals. Brian Collisson, Jennifer Howell, and Trista Harig then revealed most women who had this behavior presented markers for psychopathy, Machiavellianism and narcissism also referred to as dark triads. The three traits are connected to dark behaviour including exploitation and deception

  34. Phoenix says:

    Home heating oil is 5.50 per gal without service contract, over 6 with service contract.

    FReEdoM isn’t free.

    Pay up or freeze like the Europeans.

  35. Phoenix says:

    Make sure you rinse ALL of the bleach out. Oh, and be wealthy if you don’t want to get arrested.

  36. crushednjmillenial says:

    Krueger-Scott Mansion in Newark (601 MLK Blvd.):

    1888: built by brewery baron for $250,000
    1926: sold to freemason group for $100,000
    1958: sold to beauty school for $85,000
    future: will be artisan housing and workplaces

    Crazy that this was common for these 1800’s victorian mansions – 38 years after being built it was sold for much less than construction cost because they are such white elephants to maintain. Also, crazy that the price haircut happened in a sale BEFORE the Great Depression.

    Same story all over the rust belt with urban millionaires’ rows:
    1880’s= equivalent to Saddle River, NJ today;
    50 years later = maybe a boarding house;
    30 years later = half-falling down and probably not occupied

  37. grim says:

    There are plenty of examples of haughty NJ suburbs completely going to hell, especially ones filled with mansions and upscale homes.

  38. Very Stable Genius says:

    Donald Trump appeared to react angrily on his Truth Social app to Ron DeSantis endorsing Colorado Republican Senate candidate Joe O’Dea.

    It’s the first public shot taken between the two men in recent months
    The former allies are now both speculated to run for president in 2024.

    O’Dea previously held DeSantis up as a potential 2024 contender while pledging to ‘actively campaign’ against a re-election effort by Trump.

  39. grim says:

    Plainfields, Oranges, etc. Newark around Branch Brook Park, Paterson around East Side Park.

  40. Bystander says:

    “I don’t buy this number, it’s not the case”

    Sorry, disagree. Everyone around here in CT is listing for 40% more and there seems to be no rhyme or reason. My house fell in value for 5 straight years prior to 2020 . I would guess continued down about 5% from my late 2014 purchase price until Q2 2020. People who bought in 2009 bubble are listing for 40% more and two guy who bought flips in 2021 is trying for 38% more. These are not major remodels at all. It is garbage bottom barrell home depot final sale stuff..and on busy roads

  41. leftwing says:

    BRT…so CW shit-co TDOC reports Wednesday…’innovative’ specialized call center founded over 20 years ago that went public in 2015 and still has not turned a profit…

    More juice to short?

    Down over 90%, but still can drop another 20% easily, no?

    Crazy bitch already owns 12% or so, not sure how much more room she has to support this pig if it pukes earnings…..

  42. grim says:

    Legislators seem hell bent of dialing back all of the ‘temporary’ rules that allowed for telemedicine to explode over the last year.

    They outsource call center operations to third parties, btw.

    Nothing they do can’t be replicated by others. Evidence the explosion of telemedicine platforms focused on single condition services.

  43. Fast Eddie says:


    Everyone around here in CT is listing for 40% more…

    If you’re able to reveal, which area/towns are you’re seeing this? I look around that West Hartford area and surrounding towns and I sort of like that area. I think you’re referring to closer to NYC?

  44. Old realtor says:

    Luxury homes not worth what they would cost to build? Try Llewellyn Park in West Orange.

  45. libturd says:

    St. Cloud section too.

    Plainfield mansions, I always marveled at. Always hoped an Asbury Park gentrification might happen there.

  46. Bystander says:


    Fairfield County…the one and only. I am in Fairfield which exploded during 2020/21. West Hartford is a nice place but 70m further north. You are tied to big health insurers up there and newer Infosys center pretty much caps any chance at living wage.

  47. 3b says:

    Lib: Asbury gentrification is limited right by the beach and nearby. Once you get close to the railroad tracks coming up from the beach you can see it change, and once you cross the tracks you are back in the hood. A lot of crazy last minute condo building there this summer. It will be interesting to see what they sell for.

  48. Ex says:

    1:53 gorgeous home. Probably no air conditioning.
    Tax History “unavailable”….

    “2” rated High School.

  49. Bystander says:


    Your post over the weekend on wage compression and how it is impacts long term employees was spot on. It is much easier to ask for higher wages when it is on the front door. Obviously the lower income, customer facing people have upper hand now. You can’t sell product then you got no business. For white collar middle income, they are getting destroyed by low increases due to lack of transparency within their companies. Job boards and recruiters are extremely secretive about salary until candidate has spent much time invested with interview. With all the market turmoil, I many, many companies are about to b&tch-slapped next week. This applies to internal job roles AND remote work that could be performed in NYC. It will make for interesting job market in Q4 and into Q1. Of course, not much mention in terms of escalation or compliance but I do expect chaos when next week hits and candidates and employees start pointing at the law. I look forward to it. I am so tired of chasing this information and idiot recruiters looking for candidates to sit in Plano TX/St Louis or NYC when the salary is for Plano TX exclusively.

    As we previously wrote here and here, New York City recently passed a law requiring employers to include the minimum and maximum salary, or wage range, in job postings. The law goes into effect on November 1.

    As a reminder, NYC employers with 4 or more employees must include salary information in advertisements and job postings. The law applies to any work that is performed or could be performed (including remote work!) within City limits. The salary disclosure requirement applies to job postings, promotions, and internal transfer opportunities.

    As the effective date looms, employers should do the following:

    Review the salary ranges of current employees in order to determine an accurate compensation range for all positions before publishing job advertisements.
    Review exiting job posting templates or create new templates for postings, including internal postings for promotion or transfer opportunities.
    Evaluate salary ranges, with a thorough documentation of the evaluation process, in order to meet the “good-faith” requirement of the law to prepare for possible complaints and investigations.
    Conduct a pay equity audit to find and address any pay disparities that may violate the Equal Pay Act, Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, or the New York State Equal Pay Law, among others.
    Train Human Resources personnel, talent acquisition specialists, and hiring managers on the salary disclosure requirements. The training should focus on setting salaries in a non-discriminatory manner – for example, by using quantitative and qualitative metrics.
    If the employer works with job recruitment agencies, confirm that the agencies are in compliance with the law, as salary ranges must be included in any job postings or related communications to candidates. As a reminder, temporary help agencies are not covered under the law.

  50. Grim says:

    The bigger issue with the wage disclosure is that it will make everyone paying the stayer tax or in the compressed wage bracket keenly aware of this fact.

    Suspect it will drive quit rates even higher in NY.

  51. BRT says:

    left, I shorted TDOC from 150 to 100 at the beginning of Nov 21. At that point, I was shorting a whole basket of stocks but I took TDOC off the list because it had fallen so much relative to the others already. ROKU, SQ, SHOP were the easier targets. I haven’t thought about doing it to TDOC since but it’s clear I left another 75% drop on the table on that one. Jeez.

    I’d be careful though. She has the gunpowder to turn something like that down into a 20% face ripping rally. Of course, it always fades once she’s done. She does it periodically with $PACB, the 1 billion market cap bio sh1tco that makes up 5% of ARKG, which she owns 12% of. She’s the only buyer ever….and jacks up the price with huge 20% swings over 2 days.

    I have a hard time shorting something down over 75%. I actually went long a bunch of that garbage in May in pair trades and caught some big bounces before I shorted again in Aug. I’ve been hands off the market the past 2 weeks. I want big tech to report before I choose how to play it further out.

  52. BRT says:

    also, to put things in perspective about how crazy this whole ARK thing was, the fed sprayed the money hose on the public, and 100 billion went right into her fund. It’s like 1/8th of TARP going to a gambler who put it all on double zero.

  53. Jim says:

    Libturd says:
    October 24, 2022 at 1:53 pm
    Absolutely perfectly restored, Beautiful carpentry and masonary . A real show of craftsman.
    Also noted: During the restoration, the pair added all new systems, including new electrical, plumbing and central air conditioning.

    Ex says:
    October 24, 2022 at 3:15 pm
    1:53 gorgeous home. Probably no air conditioning.

  54. Jim says:

    BRT says:
    October 24, 2022 at 7:25 pm

    I wish I had your balls. It sounds like you are hitting it out of the park, congrats.

  55. BRT says:

    Jim, unfortunately, I only risked about 25% of my portfolio on those plays. As a result my portfolio is up about 20%. The rest has been sitting in cash. I’m happy with the results but I coulda done a hell of a lot better.

  56. BRT says:

    And yes, with 12.5% ownership in a lot of these small caps, if outflows actually happen, she’s toast, no way to exit without crashing the price.

  57. Ex says:

    Harvey Weinstein’s defense told the jury that there is absolutely no evidence against their client and that every woman who will testify in his trial is an actress who will be playing a role on the stand — all to fit the narrative of #MeToo, which they characterized as an “asteroid” of a movement that “burst forth like a supernova” with Weinstein as the poster child.

    Weinstein’s attorney Mark Werksman told jurors that they should prepare to hear a “firehose of false and unprovable allegations” from women who agreed to have consensual sexual interactions with Weinstein, but years later, are now embarrassed and lying about what really happened.

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