From CNBC:
Consumer confidence in the housing market hits a new low, according to Fannie Mae
Rising mortgage rates, high home prices and uncertainty in the overall economy have Americans feeling more pessimistic about the state of the housing market.
In October, just 16% of consumers said they thought now is a good time to buy a home, according to a monthly survey by Fannie Mae. That is the lowest share since the survey began in 2011. The share of respondents who thought now is a good time to sell a home also dropped from 59% to 51%.
Fannie Mae’s survey looks not just at buying and selling but tests sentiment about home prices, mortgage rates and the job market. It combines them all into one number, which also fell for the eighth straight month and now sits at a new low.
A higher share of consumers, 37%, said they expect home prices to drop in the next 12 months. That compares with 35% in September. More also believe mortgage rates will rise.
I did the max range on this data – from 1955 to present. Take a look and you interpret it:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=6TK
https://www.wisn.com/article/paul-ryan-calls-former-president-donald-trump-drag-on-our-ticket/41917724#
Wall Street’s growing expectation is that the Fed will trigger an economic downturn as it raises interest rates at the fastest pace in three decades to catch up with runaway inflation.
“The chances of a soft landing are likely to diminish to the extent that policy needs to be more restrictive or restrictive for longer,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month. “Nonetheless, we’re committed to getting inflation back down to 2%. We think a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain.”
If the October inflation data comes in hotter than expected, it could raise the odds of an even steeper rate hike when the Fed meets in December and a more aggressive central bank in the coming months.
“Despite a half-dozen interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, any broad-based, significant and sustained easing of inflation pressures remains elusive,” McBride said. “As a result, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says there is ‘a ways to go’ in hiking interest rates to a level that dampens demand enough to corral inflation.”
Oh, and current 30-yr. mortgage rates are at 7.25%. So, if you’re thinking of selling or buying, let us know how that experience goes. Any predictions on the CPI report at 8:30 AM? Uh! Look at that! Diesel is up 11 cents from a week ago! Rock n’ Roll folks!
Does anyone else here also think Cathy Wood is on a suicide mission? I shudder to think what would have happened if I did not cut my losses at 5% on ARKK a while back.
Rent: to quote Elwood Blues “we’re on a mission from God”.
Fuel prices directly impact the price of all delivered raw materials and finished goods. At current diesel prices, a trucker delivering goods round trip from Richmond, VA to NYC will cost her/him approximately $675. In January of 2020, it would have been about $272.
Wtf? The futures
Eddie, just wait until Congestion Pricing hits. Add another $100 to that trailer load.
Why only bust high growth’s balls? I don’t get it.
What about when oil went below zero? When they couldn’t give it away? Did not hear one word from anyone on here bashing all the value investors in energy.
How about the bonds implosion? Why not one word? It’s only high risk growth that is the problem…got it.
Facebook had its face ripped off, but it’s zuck’s fault, not the cycle. Got it.
You guys love to hate high growth on the way up on the cycle, then bash on the way down in the cycle with “i told you so’s.” The cycle never ends, run your victory laps when the cycle is favorable to your perspectives.
No One says:
November 9, 2022 at 11:15 pm
Of course Cathie has been bullish on crypto. Wonder how much she will lose on that.
LOL. Hurry up and get to 930 so the options markets open….below 4 again chi on the ten. who knows if it holds. Gonna be an interesting morning.
Fast: One commentator called today’s mortgage rates grueling! Rates with a 7 handle grueling? Well now that’s funny, where are all these young wealthy buyers with all this money and demand?
Election over Ed. Real gridlock for next two years, not the Manchin coddling gridlock either. Biden contained the damage to the Ds. Now, hands are off wheel…prepare for interesting times.
You just don’t get it…do you understand they raised the rates too fast and it broke its relationship with market price? They artificially killed it.
3b says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:45 am
Fast: One commentator called today’s mortgage rates grueling! Rates with a 7 handle grueling? Well now that’s funny, where are all these young wealthy buyers with all this money and demand?
“Does anyone else here also think Cathy Wood is on a suicide mission?”
She’s an inveterate gambler with other people’s money. Nothing more, nothing less.
Like everyone of that ilk she will blow through her bankroll eventually, but will always have a ‘story’ of how things will change and that with enough time (“one more roll is all I need!”) those losses will turn around.
Needless to say, they never do.
Lots of quality places to invest to capture outsized returns offered by developing, high growth technologies and companies.
She, quite obviously, is not one.
Brutal bear market. These traders are going to get killed.
Chicago says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:32 am
Wtf? The futures
Hey Blumpy, please explain how moving to zero immediately does not have same effect? You are talking about distorting market price..geez. Blatantly obtuse.
That’s why you adjust to the new leaders in the next cycle. Give me a break with this bs that high growth investors are dead. They will lead next bull market like they always do, wiping out the old value traps.
“Needless to say, they never do.”
This perverse optimism for an immediate pivot back to the punch bowl is just nauseating. A crack in the CPI, which initially happened in the 70s as well, and futures are up 3%?
It just feels like all markets are just waiting for a cessation of fed activities so they can resume their parabolic trend upwards.
Third largest crypto exchange embroiled in fraud and +3% because gimme that cheap money.
Bs. They did not drop the rates quickly. They sure did raise them quickly. Big big difference. Why do you think mortgages are down 90% for some businesses? That’s insane. Market is broken.
Bystander says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:55 am
Hey Blumpy, please explain how moving to zero immediately does not have same effect? You are talking about distorting market price..geez. Blatantly obtuse.
Artificially low rates destroyed the economy, now the cleaning.
Bystander: The old quantitative easing thing, by the Fed, driving rates effectively to zero, but you know that.
People are a lot smarter than they used to be. They understand the game a lot more than in the past and have access to a wealth of information they previously did not. Market should be down more, but it’s not.
Boomer Remover says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:57 am
This perverse optimism for an immediate pivot back to the punch bowl is just nauseating. A crack in the CPI, which initially happened in the 70s as well, and futures are up 3%?
It just feels like all markets are just waiting for a cessation of fed activities so they can resume their parabolic trend upwards.
Third largest crypto exchange embroiled in fraud and +3% because gimme that cheap money.
Bystander: I will take gridlock, if that’s all we can have. It will keep the extremes on both sides contained.
Uh, yes they did. In March 2020. Do you have short term memory loss?
The cycle did…you think the cycle can go on forever? The black swan called the pandemic put an end to one of the longest bull runs.
3b says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:58 am
Artificially low rates destroyed the economy, now the cleaning.
Bruiser,
Ah yes, congestion pricing, how did I miss that? And don’t forget toll hikes coming January 1st which I believe will now be incrementally increased on a regular schedule. Oh wait, now I need to run the reefer on the rig as well? Lol. Hey folks, don’t let your eyeballs pop out of the socket when you see the price of those pint of blueberries.
Boomer: I agree, this silliness with a pivot talk and bring back the punch bowl, it’s nonsense. Where are all these rock ribbed capitalists now?? They are crying about the Fed breaking something, the Fed already broke something with their zero rates , now they are trying to fix it.
They shut down the economy for god’s sake. Wake up, bystander. They tried to save it, but failed.
Bystander says:
November 10, 2022 at 9:03 am
Uh, yes they did. In March 2020. Do you have short term memory loss?
I’ll reiterate my call on the tech sector layoffs. It will spur the formation of new, even more innovative startups. Recruiters are like sharks in the water trying to scoop up talent that were simply caught up in the churn. I know someone at Meta that was laid off yesterday, and accepted a new position yesterday. I am actively recruiting for 2 positions specifically targeting both ex-Meta and Twitter content moderation staff, and have candidates lined up.
Ha, I’m actually a growth investor. But I have this requirement of expected positive real returns that I use as one of my filters. I don’t get it right all the time, but at least I’m making the effort, unlike some growth stock investors I’ve observed over the decades.
Rates were already much lower than they should have been in early 2020. You had PPP, MBS purchases, unemployment payments and all kinds of other floors put under the economy. You are too stupid to see that it completely distorted market prices by keeping zero for way too long. It should have been slow cuts, if needed at all. Instead, it became a frenzy free for all for which the middle class and poor are suffering as usual.
And in 36 House races that the Cook Political Report rated as tossups, Mr. Trump endorsed just five Republicans. Each one lost on Tuesday.
Bystander,
I’m all in now, baby! Step into the booth with me on 11/5/2024 and watch me pull the lever for the blue. I want mine. Let the blue toil with their s0cial experiments; children’s story time with Roxxi, fully funded ‘women’s health care’, gender neutral blah, blah, green hair, purple hair, whatever else they want to invent. In fact, I want universal health care now… and the end of the electoral college. Give the muppets what they want, the most votes wins. I’m seeing the retirement light at the end of that tunnel, still a few years away but waaaay closer than than the millennial/Z crowd. Keep working my little muppets. Banking, monetary and pecuniary policy are not the blue’s thing, they can’t be bothered. You need some money? Either print it, pimp it or tax it. Either way, I could care less as long as there’s a check deposited or delivered and I never see a bill from a doctor.
Disruptive innovation high growth can’t be invested on fundamentals. It’s more about getting the idea to scale, imho. Can you envision the future and pick which company in this sector will win the race to dominate said market.
Again, ETH and DNA are clear as day for me. Now I am looking for others. Might think about getting into coin. Have a feeling Meta will have its day one day, it’s run by a proven dominant business owners of our time period. These kind of guys don’t usually lose long-term. Unicorns. I love how he doesn’t give a f’k about the naysayers, and is laser eyed on investing in what he thinks is the future. When it bottoms, I will be throwing some money there. If i lose, I lose; it’s always a smart bet to bet on a guy like zuck.
Zuck is not old, in fact, in his prime. Love it.
“11/5/2024”
Consider it a date. Perhaps Phish will be playing a Fall tour at the time. We’ll click blue and you can happily dance in the light, full of edibles. You can talk to the unshaved, dreaded hippie girl and tell her how you love all these ladies right of today.
Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser
He has now flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
By WSJ Editorial Board
Nov 9, 2022
By, distorting market prices upwards with artificially low interest rates doesn’t count. The only price that’s not allowed to rise is the price of oil, even though, the primary complainers about that one are the ones claiming we won’t be using it in 20 years.
Bystander: You have covered it all. Fed kept rates artificially low for a decade, then doubled down during the pandemic. Lots of knowledgeable people were warning for years that this was going to be a huge problem; of course they were ridiculed and dismissed, and told it’s a new economy, and asset inflation is a good thing, and a bunch of other crap. Now these rock ribbed capitalists are crying.
Debt doesn’t matter. Isn’t that what Pumps said?
All of this is correct, but the pandemic changed the game. It royally f’ed up a well oiled machine known as the global supply chain. A hyper efficient machine that was used to hold down prices. Say Bye…it’s gone. We hit peak globalization. That’s what this inflation is really about.
3b says:
November 10, 2022 at 9:37 am
Bystander: You have covered it all. Fed kept rates artificially low for a decade, then doubled down during the pandemic. Lots of knowledgeable people were warning for years that this was going to be a huge problem; of course they were ridiculed and dismissed, and told it’s a new economy, and asset inflation is a good thing, and a bunch of other crap. Now these rock ribbed capitalists are crying.
Meaning the Fed was correct, but the game changed. Not their fault. Pandemic brought about major changes.
I do love dancing hippie girls…
It doesn’t, if growth outpaces its cost.
Libturd says:
November 10, 2022 at 9:46 am
Debt doesn’t matter. Isn’t that what Pumps said?
Leave it to the Democrats to copy Trump and declare victory where there was none. They have as of now most likely lost control of the House and it’s still a possibility the Senate too. It’s going to take another week to count the remaining ballots in Alaska, Arizona and Nevada and in Georgia the runoff will be held on Dec. 6.
Lib: Debt always matters; those who know, know that.
Fast: Looks like you have gone all in! You will feel better now!
Day traders are def getting wiped out. Brutal movement.
How about that market?
Get ready for the greatest face ripper so far. It’s about inflation. BUT it’s also about the market overheating. I expect the FED to come out with the same scary language in a week or so. Until then, enjoy the Santa Rally. It will be over soon enough.
Killed it? They artificially created it.
Why don’t you go down to AC and spend some taxpayer money
The Great Pumpkin says:
November 10, 2022 at 8:53 am
You just don’t get it…do you understand they raised the rates too fast and it broke its relationship with market price? They artificially killed it.
Lib, crazy….best single day this year so far for me….last week I bought in some profitable call writes, just re-wrote many of them, getting the double bang of realized profit and a better basis in the established position. For META for example my screen is showing me up 150+% right now on the combined positions (lol) comprised of two individual positions each up 20% or so, ie. my basis is now stupid low.
On the straight long equities was going to note for you yesterday VNT was up 8%, it’s 16% now in a week which pales with some of the moves just this morning among more than a few equities…
Market always want to believe, and does, when uncertainty is removed…all the talking heads are focusing on this morning’s outsized gains relative to the actual CPI print and scratching their heads…IMO that analysis is missing that we removed the third of three huge overhangs on the market…Fed, elections, and today CPI all moderately favorable. This morning’s move is reflective of the package, not just the CPI…
leftwing, here you go:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj2Xald7NYQ
The dancing sucks though.
Why are you guys even engaging the Fool, especially on financial matters?
Every pathology he possesses is on display here, as well as his total cluelessness on the topic.
Do something useful rather than engage him, go have a discussion about markets and rates with your dog. The dog learn more and you will take away at least some value.
Dude, don’t do that to me…lol.
Nice rack though, I guess.
Tiffany Trump is ‘flipping out’ ahead of her lavish wedding to billionaire heir Michael Boulous this weekend as her father’s plush Mar-A-Lago resort was forced to send staff home.
Wonder if the groom is having second thoughts from the midterm elections.
Just be careful Left. It was hardly a good tag on the CPI. It could have been noise. The FED might come back and sink the pent-up optimism.
Personally, I’m 50-50 in and out. Bought 100K small cap value ETF last week so call me slightly more in than out. But content not to gamble in this market that I think will still be headed much lower with the recession. What happened in tech will be coming to the industrials and others soon enough. Maybe not as extreme, but it will come.
Lib: I agree, just a hair line crack, and as you said, it could be noise. The Fed ain’t done yet, markets off to the races again, exactly what the Fed don’t want.
3b,
What are the throngs going to do when the 30 year rate touches 8% or better? I also wonder how the 2020/2021 house buyers are feeling right now? Yeah, they got a nice low rate but they better intend to stay there for the next decade or come to the table with a check. Omg. It’s all about price.
“MUSK’S FIRST EMAIL TO TWITTER STAFF ENDS REMOTE WORK”
“Basically throw your values out the window, throw your morals out the window, throw your religion out the window”
Left that whole post was a complete crock, but the religion one is the pinnacle. Explain to be how 88% of Georgia Evangelicals can vote for Walker, with the wife beating, kids and abortions coming out of the woodwork, over a Warnock who studied Theology in College and has devoted his life to God.
Hypocrisy, thine name is Republican.
I was thinking about going to Wildwood Crest/Cape May for 5 days/4 nights this summer as I haven’t had a legit vacation in a long time. It was mostly overnight and weekend stuff for a long time. I found this beautiful condo complex where the rates were $410 per night in the summer of 2022. I inquired and the price is now $550 per night and you can only do a week at a time. Good luck, I’m out. I can’t imagine what people’s credit card bills look like. Inflation be damned.
Imagine thinking over 7% inflation is bullish. Now Powell can cut again! They are still 5% short of their “target”.
Fast: 8 percent? Some are saying rates may hit 10 percent next year!! I agree if people bought with a low rate and their jobs are secure, then they stay; whether they want to or not is another story. It’s not like this has not been the case in the past. I feel bad for the people that bought in really bad locations, like off of exit ramps on 17, or backing up to GSP or 208, or on those busy streets like Kinderkamack Rd. I have seen houses sell in the last few years in horrible locations. They got them at a discount over houses without location issues, but still wildly overinflated. They will be hit hard, and will have no choice but to stay. And yes, price does matter. It’s always the underlying real value of the asset, not the financing mechanism. You can refinance your rate, but not your purchase price.
Juice,
You are correct. Some interesting dynamics still at play with AZ and NV. It is big city vote that remains but apparently same day voting mail in drop offs. So, R voters show up day of vote and Ds lean early mail vote. This will decide it. I think Kelly still wins AZ but Kari Lake may pull off governor. NV Senate is the big one. If those votes lead D then could sway outcome but if not then R wins. At that point, GA run-off becomes massive. Stay tuned.
11:23 it’s like talking to a 2 year/old isn’t it?!??
Thanks for looking out for me Lib, and as always I remain nimble…for me it’s all about establishing long term positions through options where I get better returns for less and defined risk, and the ability (as above) to trade around the positions when markets break to extremes to further lower the cost basis by much more than I could with actual shares…
Bottom line, think of it this way, in terms of actual dollars I’m ‘playing’ with what my stop loss would be had I owned actual shares…yet I get dollar for dollar upside at multiples of that amount at expiry, a cushion to the downside (less than a dollar for dollar decline when the markets move down), and an fixed loss (ie, no gap down risk).
Difficult to put specific numbers around it as the relationships are multivariate and not linear but in the most straightforward account I have about 16% of NLV in options trades that back of the envelope will deliver returns as if 60% of my portfolio were invested.
The SPY trades I put on from 9/27-10/14? The index averaged 365, it’s at 390 now, or up 6.4%. My screen shows my positions up 17.1%. And my loss profile if/when she reverses is more favorable as well…I will breakeven – no loss, no gain – all the way down to about 320…the guy who bought shares at 365 instead? Down 12%….
I may lighten up a couple of those trades by day end.
Musk is an idiot – he should have made the “Return to Office” mandate before laying people off, he would have saved millions by letting people just quit.
Now we get all the GOP fingerpointing and blamestorming. That is just the warm up for the next stage, when Donnie tears the party apart when they stop paying his bills and go after his funding.
https://twitter.com/BettyBowers/status/1590566543619858433
Odd, now people who think you should be forced to have a baby at 12 think you are not mature enough to be able to vote at 20 . . .
Btstander re: “GA run-off becomes massive”
Seems voter turnout was only 54% in Georgia, nobody gives 2 chits…
Here is what left would like. Perhaps greatest show they ever performed. They don’t make ’em like woman at 5:20 anymore. This is very NSFW.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXLP7SDksaohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXLP7SDksao
If you care about Tiffany trumps wedding then your life Sucks.
I don’t feel sorry for anyone anymore. My empathy button broke.
20 years in the classroom…and ten years in corporate America will do that too you.
My goal is to live my life as I wish to live it meaning as little drama as possible and without the usual hand wringing that goes with the liberal agenda. In the words of the Poet Sturgill “Life ain’t fair and the world is mean”: https://youtu.be/rUpH0muyR-I
I totally get your strategies Left. It’s very similar to how seasoned Craps players roll. They use short and long hedges to ensure their established positions (profits when they have overcome the odds). You need not explain and I agree with your strategy. I hate to always compare things with gambling, but if you are to beat the house, who usually has an advantage, you must find strategies that allow you to exploit the comp returns. Gambling alone in a casino is a loser in the long-term. When they rate a new game at 90% return and you can play it at a rate above 97%, though there are games which pay up to 99.6%, that 90% rated game you play at 98% will yield you a 101.33% return because they comp you back 1/3rd of your expected losses. In this case, that’s 1/3rd of 10% which is 3.33 giving you the 101.33%. This game is available at over half of the casinos in AC and nearly all in Las Vegas. Though it’s the best opportunity you will find to leave ahead, there is usually at most one or two tables maximum and they are usually empty. And the strategy is easier to learn than blackjack.
I am slowly learning options strategies. I understand how they can be advantageous when the options price differently than the true odds they should represent. Though it’s more of an arbitrage against rational pricing than an exploitation of a house mistake, which is how I profit at casinos.
People can be redeemed. Herschel Walker isn’t a bad candidate because of past transactions if he’s choosing to live right in the present. Voting for him didn’t make you a hypocrite.
What makes him a bad candidate is that he seems to be a bumbling fool. Not someone I would want to control the levers of power. The left is power hungry and will elect the mentally incapacitated but we can all do better.
LOL, ByS, good video. She’s not my type, but the chick at around 4:09 looks like she’d be a ball of fun…early 70s, can you imagine anything like that these days…
Lib, exited some of that SPY from last month…largest gain (27%), highest breakeven, lowest position value, nearest expiry. Caution better part of valor…
“Left that whole post was a complete crock…” You have no idea how that period and the succeeding divorce reset my perspective and the subsequent shit I’ve pulled…
Lib, good to hear you’re exploring some strategies.
One point jumps out, not sure if I read it correctly, but would caution against a strategy that looks for mispricing. Rarely exists, and you won’t be the one getting filled.
Best use I’ve found is as in the SPY example above. For the normal investment process you would use – timeframe, stop loss, exit on the upside – you can structure more than a few options trades to reflect those views. With that setup you should be risking less and making more than a similar trade in the shares.
Stay away from illiquid options…huge spreads and no volume. It will hurt you.
And make sure you understand volatility. Nearly everyone starting out learns the hard way, you can have everything move your direction but if you set your trade up not aware you are exposed to large vol moves you can actually end up down despite the shares moving in your direction. And lastly please don’t just go long calls or puts.
I’ve suggested this to you more than once…your analytical approach, strong focus on diligence, discipline, and yes I hate to admit it gaming background can make you successful here…GL
Paul Ryan joined the rising chorus blaming the GOP’s weaker-than-expected midterm election returns on former President Trump.
“I think Trump’s kind of a drag on our ticket. I think Donald Trump gives us problems politically.”
Thought this was good Grim
https://ibb.co/mJHgSNB
Boebert on top currently. Republicans are a blight.
Any wait for the R’s to beg Liz Cheney to come back.
“This is not a misprint: mortgage rates are starting the day 0.50% lower than yesterday. This matches the biggest drop we’ve ever recorded in day-over-day terms (from March 2020, when it was arguably less “real” for a variety of reasons).”
Murphy says the bear hunt is back on. It’s not like we didn’t know more bear encounters would occur almost immediately. Must have been the 1 bear that went through Princeton that put him on notice. Can’t have the rich people disturbed.
This FTX situation is fascinating.
Unless he wanted to cut even more people…….. he got rid of the deadweight, and now he will get rid of those not committed….. give him more credit. He is on the spectrum (self-disclosed), but he is no fool.
grim says:
November 10, 2022 at 11:49 am
Musk is an idiot – he should have made the “Return to Office” mandate before laying people off, he would have saved millions by letting people just quit.
The finger you need to care about is the one that directs you to the exit.
Fabius Maximus says:
November 10, 2022 at 12:00 pm
Now we get all the GOP fingerpointing and blamestorming. That is just the warm up for the next stage, when Donnie tears the party apart when they stop paying his bills and go after his funding.
“latest odds of 75bps hike in Dec: 0%”
You also need to learn the behavior of dynamic pricing. I would assume that you can buy trading software, and set up a bunch of parameters to trigger when spot and future conditions materialize. The worst thing is to have an ex-ante plan, and realize that your expectation is wrong.
Libturd says:
November 10, 2022 at 1:04 pm
I am slowly learning options strategies. I understand how they can be advantageous when the options price differently than the true odds they should represent. Though it’s more of an arbitrage against rational pricing than an exploitation of a house mistake, which is how I profit at casinos.
Strongly advise against trying to pick up pennies in front of theoretical mispricing. No way retail has the same data flow, timeliness, knowledge, or liquidity as institutions you would be competing against…Keep your options strategy a reflection of your fundamental investment decisions.
I mentioned last week TREX again as a fundamental investment in the 30s (as she touched it) and writing Dec 35Ps for 1.10 if you liked the stock there rather just waiting around for it to get there, if ever.
Analysis was best/worst case I own the shares at a level I liked (33.90) or if they never get there I keep the premium of 1.10 for 40 days on 33.90 of max loss…a return of 3.2% (29% annualized).
Stock has run, probably won’t see 35, the option at the ask is 0.35. You could close after a week for a profit of 0.75 per contract. Even if you wrote just 10 that’s $750. Not making you rich but for renting out insurance for a week can’t beat it….
Latest odds of a 75bp hike in December is actually 15%
Fed Funds futures top out at 4.88% in May 2023.
leftwing 3:00 pm
I went through your whole post twice and felt like I was reading a calculus equation. Holy f&*%. I think I’ll stick to passive investing. lol.
I quit dealing with options after I lost money on Enron options one quarter before it blew up. Options are as much about time as they are about direction, and I’ve never thought I had a big edge on short term timing decisions.
Working in the biz, PA is just too much of a hassle, pre-trade clearance, the fact that decisions for my own account would be distracting me from my responsibilities. I get paid enough that my clients deserve almost all of my attention.
But sometimes I look over here and see some very intelligent investment-related ideas, and also some very stupid investment ideas. Both are worth being aware of.
“give him more credit. […], but he is no fool.”
Are you kidding. He is going to be talked about for ever on how to Fcuk it all up. One of the best takes I read, pointed out the Sunk Cost Fallacy he found himself in. He could have paid the billion dollar fine to walk away from the deal, but instead lit the fire in the dumpster and is now on track to crater both Twitter and Tesla. He sold 4 Billion of Tesla stock this week I assume to service debt, or pay margin calls.
Now he has the heads of Compliance and Legal walking out and the FTC knocking on the door. Their fines will probably drain the last of the liquidity.
I heard about that issue you had with your finger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10MveRzK8zI
Bobert is up now..
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-3.html
Left: Fed stated after their last increase last week that December would likely 50 rather than 75, but with more smaller hikes into 23, which of course the market did not like. The no 75 in December is not new news; some might have missed that. I believe we top out at 5.25 and then the Fed sits tight for an extended period.
Just correcting earlier misinformation from our mutual ‘friend’ that stated Dec 75bps was at zero….
How many days are we?
Twitter hasn’t made money in years. Elon is doing the best thing he can by tossing out everyone there and rebuilding it with the 200 million active daily users, before they all leave for the next big thing. This could be Elon’s Steve Case moment, it really is now or never, and the previous crew running the place including Dorsey wrecked it over the last few years. Yes he overpaid, yes he could lose allot of money but it does not matter the richest man in this country could lose $10 billion more on operating Twitter in the red for the next few years or go big and bold and turn it around. It’s a sideshow anyway the real bread and butter will be when Space X and or Starlink have IPOs. He w0n’t be illiquid anytime soon that is for sure.
Left: Oh that was uncertainly understood! 6 Months and 3 days.
FTX looking like the Job Corzine of crypto.
People acting like it matters. He sold such TSLA at an insane valuation. Literally, the bubble of bubbles. At no point should have even come close to being the world’s richest man. If you buy Twitter for 4x the true value, does it matter? He sold TSLA at 50x what it should be. Now he controls the public square. People are acting like Dorsey and Parag we’re running the company well. They weren’t.
“Inflation is basically over.”
Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel just now on @HalftimeReport
BRT – SBF the CEO of FTX will go into hiding, all of the El Salvadoran Bitcoin was on FTX, we are talking MS-13…
“Inflation is basically over.”
Somebody forget to tell Wakefern, PSE&G and Paul Miller Chevrolet.
Goota love this, the crypto clowns are now blaming US Lawmakers and Regulators like the SEC for “forcing” their crypto trades and assets to be held in an unregulated offshore environment.
Here is the CEO of Kraken another exchange.
https://twitter.com/jespow/status/1590635242087657473?cxt=HHwWgsDRveeUiZMsAAAA
Yeah the Fed is bluffing. They will announce at the next meeting they are buying a few hundred billion a month in mortgage securities again for the next decade or so..
juice: Fed starting coming out today to yammer about their resolute focus on the stated plan….. we will see…..
Classic, Ed..truth.
“Fed starting coming out today to yammer about their resolute focus on the stated plan….. we will see…..”
I think the Fed will stick to their guns- they don’t want to repeat the mistakes of the 70’s, when they raised rates and then chickened out.
“Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel just now on @HalftimeReport”
Isn’t he the guy who predicted back in 1999 that the DOW would hit 36,000 by 2004 or so?
Only off by a couple of decades…
Pumps here is your chance.. Crypto and Pharma!!
Make sure you tell Cathy!!
https://www.wired.com/story/martin-shkreli-druglike-crypto-web3-drug-discovery-platform/
Juice/ Chgo: It’s just too funny, inflation expected 7.9 comes in at 7.7 and it’s euphoria and the Fed will pivot. What a crock!
Just to give a frame of reference…… we are experiencing serious unexpected events from Crypto. The FTX thing is a big deal. The important observation is the overall stability of the market. Not relative to the Fed/inflation/economy action we have seen, but due to these implosions.
It means that money center banks, the financial system, and leverage are all functioning within a rational framework. The idiots were given their proper sandbox, but no more. I am not making a forecast, I am only describing what has happened to date. It is a good thing to see. I hope for more.
Great news, Biden says he fixed inflation.
relative to my 7:42PM post
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/10/crypto-confidence-is-shattered-with-ftxs-future-in-question-says-castle-island-ventures-nic-carter.html
Generational wealth made from these capitulations.
chicagofinance says:
November 10, 2022 at 7:48 pm
relative to my 7:42PM post
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/10/crypto-confidence-is-shattered-with-ftxs-future-in-question-says-castle-island-ventures-nic-carter.html
To call you a stupid asshole is an insult to assholes everywhere (including Flab).
The Great Pumpkin says:
November 10, 2022 at 7:51 pm
Generational wealth made from these capitulations.
“Somebody forget to tell […] Paul Miller Chevrolet.”
When Carvana go belly up PMC will get the message. Carvana will dump so many used cars on the market that the inflation issue will be resolved. Joe could step in with Cash for Clunkers 2.0, but the impact on inflation will be so positive, that we can let the dream unfold and let the market sort it out.”
To call you a stupid asshole is an insult to assholes everywhere
And Chi is a man with his finger on the pulse. He has his finger shoved so far up, he is the perfect person to opine on this
Chi – re: “we are experiencing serious unexpected events from Crypto”
Unexpected? Did you cave and give your clients exposure to this utter crap?
I heard it from a hedgie years ago the synthetics in the CME created were to short this crap to oblivion, they wish there were more ways to do it.
BTW – I have a wealthy family member invested in a crypto hedge fund, his kid who is his unregistered financial leech turned him onto. I told him this time last year to cut his luck at the casino and go home…..
I don’t really believe any of us would have made it this far if we weren’t assholes, registered or not. Nobody here registers on the stupid scale anyway even by the broadest measure, we just are luckily above average by a long shot a few might even be savants like me…
The easiest way to short crypto has been through crypto miners, microstrategy, or coinbase. There were people doing it on FTX, but I’m sure…they regret it now. Even if you won, you may have lost.
Twitter bankruptcy?
Pretty sure that means Trump is consulting Musk on this deal.
Twitter bankruptcy? Sounds just like allot of other bankruptcy talk Elon and really silicon valley has spoke of in the past. Look Jack Dorsey is still in for a Billion and others kept their stake after taking twitter private, so folks so enjoy the show before it come back again with a massive IPO….
This one went well with the voters –
Fast Eddie says:
September 2, 2022 at 11:21 am
Abortion is just a convenient way to commit murder to remove the burden of having to be held accountable and responsible.
LOL
And you’re fucking laughing about? Laughing about it?? Fucking disgusting… truly fucking despicable.
Nobody’s laughing, but this isn’t “the governments” business.
That’s what I find so ridiculous. The party of “freedom” and personal responsibility saying: I want the gubmint to tell me & mine what to do with our families.
The very same people squealing about Obama’s Death Panels.
Bruce’s new soul album kicks asssss.
FASTeee, the laughing point is that you thought women will forgive your party.