More inventory? Nah.

From Fox Business:

Housing turnover will drop to lowest rate since the 80s, economist projects

Home sale activity next year may reach the lowest point since the early 1980s as households buying or selling real estate retreat from the market, predicts Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr. 

Marr projected that only 32 out of 1,000 households will sell their home in 2023. 

Affordability in the housing market is likely to “remain a pretty strong constraint” next year even if mortgage rates ease, Marr said.

Mortgage interest rates have risen rapidly this year … raising the monthly payment by about 50%,” Marr said. “We do expect some moderation in rates to go into next year. But even after accounting for that and the elevated prices overall, affordability is likely to remain a pretty strong constraint.”

People who either thought about or were selling their homes “decided they’re going to wait a couple of years until rates are much lower and economic environment is better,” he said. 

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16 Responses to More inventory? Nah.

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    People who either thought about or were selling their homes “decided they’re going to wait a couple of years until rates are much lower and economic environment is better…

    Why do people assume rates are going down to ~ 3%? Waiting until rates are much lower? Says who? We had 0% everything across the board for far too long. If anything, they may rise a bit more and stay there for years. Lower the price of your house. That’s what it’s going to take. You’re not special. Your dump is not worth 600K. And what does a better economic environment mean? Your president said he created 10 million jobs so what needs to improve? And when do we think we’ll see the 1st 5%, one year CD rate?

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    A million dollar price tag, 20K in taxes, $470 in monthly maintenance. Good Lord. This is by Wegman’s in Montvale. If muppets are paying up for these prices, you’ll never see riff raff in the area:

  4. 3b says:

    Fast: This is another result of the damage the Fed has done to the markets/ economy with their decade long zero interest environment. They conditioned people to believe that 3 percent or lower rates were normal, and this is just a current blip and rates will go back down to 3 or lower, and inflate prices again and they will continue to inflate from there. The Fed knows I believe they created a monster with their artificial rates, and I agree I don’t see them going back down to those low rates again unless it’s some major upheaval; if that’s the case sellers will have more to worry about then reinflating their house prices. People will have to understand 7 percent interest rates are cheap. Fed needs to get FFR to at least 6 and keep it there for a few years.

  5. leftwing says:

    “Juice, To your comments about grooming, read this…grooming-truth-behind-dangerous-bigoted-lie-targeting-lgbtq-community…Being a member of this small community is educational. Keeps me aware that hate and fear still override rational thought in otherwise intelligent people.”

    OR, no judgment zone here. No ‘bias’ or ‘bigotry’ either as those terms are understood by most mainstream people. Which leads to my point…

    The Left continually conflates extreme positions with mainstream views, using the extreme to argue against the mainstream.

    We see this regarding all the kerfuffle about Twitter, how ‘hate speech and misinformation’ will return…they are two very different topics…Most people except the extremes – on both sides – would ‘ban hate speech’ as commonly understood. By grouping ‘hate’ with ‘misinformation’ – a much different concept – the Left tries to tie ‘hate’ to honest debate and viewpoints with which they disagree. That is the definition of tyranny.

    Let’s not sugar coat it…my reality is your misinformation; your reality is my misinformation. Has been, will be.

    Your ADL article on ‘bigotry’ is the same…It conflates violence and bigotry towards lesbian and gay lifestyles (which most reasonable people oppose) with teaching transgender identity to six year old children (a new far reaching concept of the Left and legitimate topic of debate).

    Like the Left’s ‘hate and misinformation’ conflation, the ADL (a once reliable institution) equates violence against gays to strangers lecturing our youngest children on sexual issues in an attempt to silence debate about the latter.

    I’m not sure if it is intentional or if many on the left simply do not have the intellectual bandwidth to understand these rather obvious differences.

    But, yeah, it won’t stand. And the Left will continue to get pushback as these farcical positions and agendas continue to be exposed. If that’s ‘hate’ to you, tough shit.

  6. leftwing says:

    and OR, sounds like I was making it personal which is not my intention…the ‘you’ in my last sentence is not you personally, but the Left generally….I have people important to me who also reside in your community and bring no ill will here against them…unless they try to indoctrinate my kids…

  7. leftwing says:

    “Rumor has it that O’Biden is reading Trump’s book, “The Art of the Deal” after getting duped in the Griner trade.”

    Screw DJT, keep it in the family. Joe (very obviously) needs help to execute a winning trade?

    Just call Nancy and Paul….

  8. JUice Box says:

    re: “assume rates are going down to ~ 3%”

    They don’t even understand how it got that low in the first place.

    As I have mentioned the Fed Funds Rate is only half the 3% equation. The bonds from the various GSE, Fannie, Freddie, etc are the other half.

    The GSEs provide an implicit subsidy to banks by taking the mortgage debt off their books and a subsidy to housing by keeping the monthly payment lower.

    What began as an emergency action by the Federal Reserve in November of 2008 to stabilize the housing market (keep it from crashing further), it became the norm for over a decade, people got used to low rates because the Fed cornered the market on the bonds, and the banks happily wrote mortgages and sold them off as quickly as possible to the GSEs.

    Right now there is about 7.4 trillion in GSE debt. The Fed still fully owns 1/3 of that amount and are now trying to wind it down to near zero. How long will it take for them to slowly roll over $2.3 trillion in bonds? A decade or more perhaps.

    Unless the Fed restarts that program again printing money and purchasing $100 billion a month in GSE bonds we won’t see 3% mortgage rates. I would think the next crisis could give them cover to begin the money printing again, there could be a short window a year or perhaps a bit more, but another decade? I don’t think it’s gonna happen soon or even in our lifetimes. For those holding out for low 3% rates again, it will probably be feet first out the door for them.

  9. leftwing says:

    And having just finished yesterday’s posts…the actual definition of conflating honest discussion with ‘hate’ speech to try to silence debate…

    “Jim says…I am curious if Griner will turn her back on the American flag when our national anthem is played? That is her normal MO.”

    “Old realtor says…And on the subject of hate and fear of those who are different…”

    How is questioning the highly public views the repatriated captive herself put forth regarding the nation bringing her back ‘hate’?

    Answer, IT’S NOT.

    Really? Do you honestly believe that or are you just shilling for the Left?

    No different than the dustup over the returned Marine who wandered off base and was captured (why should we bring him back, he brought it on himself). Was that ‘hate’?

    Or the discussion that will likely occur around Whelan if and when he is returned (kind of sketchy background, not honorable discharge). Will that be ‘hate’?

    Just because the Left doesn’t like what it hears doesn’t make it ‘hate’.

  10. phoenix says:

    Griner is an American-and no matter which direction her back is facing to the flag it is the duty of America to bring back one of their own.

    A life is a life. The exchange of one Russian for one American is an equal exchange.

  11. Phoenix says:

    “unless they try to indoctrinate my kids”

    I’m not worried about this at all. My child knows whose side I’m on.

    I will raise her to think for herself-to see the tactics others use. And expose their hypocrisy.

    She will then be sent off into the world to fight her own battles with the armor and skills she has.

    And to keep her fear at a minimum. And to never let anyone control her as best she can. The concept of leverage.

  12. Juice Box says:

    Griner cut the line.. That is the real complaint here…it was a political judgment to go for her over teacher Marc Fogel who was stopped for marijuana at the airport and arrested many months before Griner. His family was told to keep quiet and hope for a short sentence by our state dept and even to this date our government does not even classify him as “”wrongfully detained”. They never even tried to get him, it was months of negotiations for Griner and Paul Whelan, seems they did not try and get Fogel, as well the were no high profile people calling the white house about him.

    I don’t think Biden even mentioned him the other day, he only mentioned the other guy the ex Marine Paul Whelan who was arrested for spying.

    Are we sure there aren’t a few more Russians in our jails? There has to be a few dozen if not more, clear out the jails and send them home. Oh wait they don’t want to go back to Mother Russia, and would rather sit in our jails.

  13. leftwing says:

    “A life is a life. The exchange of one Russian for one American is an equal exchange.”

    It is commendable that in your chosen profession ‘a life is a life’ is a truism…your treatment of one entering your ER should not be differentiated by whether that patient is wearing a cross, crescent, or star of David.

    In the case of diplomacy, you could not be more wrong…one-for-one is not de facto an equal exchange….Bout is an extremely high value asset, an international arms dealer caught in a plot to sell missiles to terrorists to take down American commercial planes with strong ties to the Kremlin and Putin personally. Griner is pedestrian, a nobody (diplomatically speaking).

    So the first issue on this ‘trade’ is that Biden exchanged a lightly used, recent vintage Bentley convertible with low miles straight up for a Toyota Yaris.

    The second issue…

    “Griner is an American-and no matter which direction her back is facing to the flag it is the duty of America to bring back one of their own.”

    No. America has no obligation to compensate for your own personal stupidity and lawlessness internationally. She voluntarily broke the laws of another country, a country which everyone knows is hostile to America and Americans. And, to show this isn’t about politics (for me) I would say the same about the Marine that wandered off compound in a conflict alone and unauthorized. There is no obligation on America – the country or our citizens – deriving from his voluntary and insubordinate activities.

    Lastly, I would agree with JB’s ‘cutting the line’ issue, but only in the context again of the diplomatic efforts…meaning I would have no issue moving up a high value asset of ours (say, an imprisoned actual US CIA operative/spy) in exchange for Bout.

    For some petulant little girl not willing to leave her hold at home and risk it? Not a chance.

    Her ‘hate America’ politics is just emotional icing on the cake for partisan bickering.

  14. 3b says:

    Phoenix: All children should be raised to think for themselves. The problem is today there are some on the left who have a problem with people thinking for themselves and feel the need to tell people how they should think, and if they don’t agree then they are suspect and labeled. For instance, I will never believe that trans women are women period. It’s not hatred on my part. I have no problem respecting their right to identify as trans women, as trans women, but they are not women, all the surgery in the world won’t change that. I also don’t believe trans women should be allowed to compete as women in women s college sports, it’s simply not fair, as trans women are biologically male and will always have an unfair advantage. Is that hate on my part? I don’t believe so.

  15. Ex says:

    One could say obviously it’s the peer groups kids are in.
    The little micro – cultures that the kids affiliate with. They have a lot of influence.

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