At least you can enjoy the weather

On behalf of the snow, from the LA Times:

As home prices decline, Southern Californians who bought at the peak are nervous 

Surging mortgage interest rates threatened to squash Michael and Christine Hawkins’ dream of home ownership. But this fall when the couple saw a Canoga Park condo languish on the market, they devised a plan. 

They’d submit a “low ball” offer they could stomach if they cut back on vacations, shopping and eating out. In a year — when interest rates hopefully had dropped — they could refinance and free up their budget. 

Last month, amid a decline in overall home values, the Hawkinses, both in their 30s, closed on the two-bedroom condo for 7% less than asking. But they may be stuck with a high payment for the foreseeable future, because if home prices keep falling, they might not have enough equity to refinance.

“There is not a lot of wiggle room right now [in our budget],” said Michael Hawkins, 37. “I’m happy we did it, but I’m super nervous what is going to happen.” 

For the first time in a decade, Southern California homeowners, and those across the country, are seeing their equity fall en-masse, the result of higher mortgage interest rates that have sapped purchasing power and sent home values down.

Real estate analysts said the loss in equity — which is expected to deepen — could curtail economic growth as people have less to spend on home renovations, pay for emergencies or invest in a business.

The shift in the market is unnerving some recent buyers who told The Times they worry falling prices will trap them in their mortgages and have personal consequences such as tight budgets and delayed retirement.

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100 Responses to At least you can enjoy the weather

  1. Hold my beer says:


  2. grim says:

    Wanted to lock in some more mid-term CDs, wait until Thursday?

    Seeing 4.85 on 3-5yr this morning.

  3. Hold my beer says:

    7% if ask is a lowball?

    Hope they love their condo. Cutting back on vacations, eating out, and shopping they will be spending a lot of time in it.

  4. 3b says:

    Hold: Worried their budgets will be constrained? What damage the Fed has done, now people will have to be schooled that rates are not going back to 3 percent. How many out there are going to employ this strategy, buy now at 6.5/ 7 percent, and then refinance when they go back to 3; it’s genius. We struggle a little now then refinance get a nice 3 percent what our equity grow every month, and then back to nice vacations and out to dinner. It’s magical.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Wanted to lock in some more mid-term CDs, wait until Thursday?

    Seeing 4.85 on 3-5yr this morning.

    Nice. It’s about time.

  6. Juice Box says:

    All clear here no more Covid positive in my house as this morning. Whatever variant it was symptoms were mild.

    Variant of concern for New Jersey last for weeks ending Nov 19th. We should seen BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 top the charts when the next report drops. Science says these variants evade the latest bivalent booster.

    Sequenced in last 4 weeks (%)

    BQ.1 (Omicron) 0.7% 31.7%
    BA.5 (Omicron) # 13.9% 25.4%
    BQ.1.1 (Omicron) 0.4% 20.3%
    BF.7 (Omicron) 0.3% 6.7%
    BA.4.6 (Omicron) 1.4% 5.4%
    BA.5.2.6 (Omicron) 0.1% 2.3%
    XBB (Omicron) 0.0% 2.2%
    BA.2.75 (Omicron) 0.1% 1.6%
    BN.1 (Omicron) 0.0% 1.4%
    BF.11 (Omicron) 0.0% 0.7%
    BA.2 (Omicron) 12.7% 0.6%
    BA.4 (Omicron) 1.5% 0.4%
    BA.2.75.2 (Omicron) 0.0% 0.2%
    BA.2.12.1 (Omicron) 11.2% 0.1%
    BA.1.1 (Omicron) 3.8% 0.1%
    BA.1.1.529 (Omicron) 6.2% 0.0%

  7. leftwing says:

    Throwing in the towel is happening as well for those speculative stocks taken public at peak valuation times….

    Weber, the grill company, was taken public in August 2021 at $14 a share (by Goldman Sachs no less). Traded up to about $17.50. Closed Friday at $6.50.

    Agreed to be taken private again over the weekend at $8.05 a share.

    That price is 54% off the high and 42% off the IPO price of just over a year ago.

    Said it before….if your ‘diligence’ and ‘analysis’ is determining a stock is cheap because it is XX% off the historical high of 2020/21 you are in for some pain.

    These take unders are not the anomaly, they are norm…and the more speculative the company the lower the take under price…your spec tech and biotech are customarily picked up by larger players for share prices in the low single digits…

    Same as it ever was…

  8. JUice Box says:

    3b – re” nice vacations and out to dinner. It’s magical.”

    Average mortgage peaked at $460,000 in March of this year when rates were much lower, higher interest rates means an additional $1,000 a month payment now on the same loan. Sure eating out and vacations will take a hit, some will run up the credit cards.

    BTW the Average mortgage size is now dropping. Mortgage Bankers say it dropped to about $390,000 with the increased interest rates.

    What will we see when spring selling season begins?

  9. Phoenix says:

    Ukraine spending of American tax dollars. Money that could have went to American schools, roads, transportation, infrastructure, healthcare, Social Security, bridges, high speed rail, building reservoirs…..

    U.S. already sent $67.3 billion in aid and Biden requested another $37.7 billion

  10. grim says:

    Curious how China’s zero covid policy shift will change things. Clearly the shifts in global manufacturing were significant enough for them to eat crow. Probably worse than that, looking at the news flow, they appear to be doing a complete 180. Travel tracking stopped, mobile apps turned off, transport worker restrictions removed, checkpoints, air crew, etc etc etc. Next up is the ‘vax or die’ mandate from the politburo.

  11. grim says:

    …and I firmly believe it’s the single biggest anti-inflation policy action that’s taken place so far, far more than the fed rate hikes.

  12. Libturd says:


    Keep on laddering. at 5% apy.

    See mymoneyblog for details on joining.

  13. Juice Box says:

    re: WFH anecdotal.

    Friend just quit work in Manhattan after decades. Again quit work in Manhattan, did not quit the banking industry. The company would not budge on WFH, so they left for a more flexible bank with offices closer to their home, and a hybrid work policy. Old company is forcing workers back in the Manhattan etc but their clients may not want to want to traipse into Manhattan to meet anyway..Seems a win win for the other banks, it is after all a competitive landscape, the clients will follow the talent. It is not always the marquee.

  14. Juice Box says:

    re: China complete 180.

    Huge wave coming for them it seems…it is winter in China too after all. Even with all their testing they are still underreporting, 8,000 cases a day in the whole country? Social Media has lots of posts of hours-long lines at a clinics and hospitals, and shortages of ibuprofen etc and other fever reducing drugs. People are hoarding too…

    re: ‘vax or die’ Even if they could vax everyone quickly this wave will peak long before they even get close. Even our boosters do not work on the new variants say the scientists, and there are reports of shortages of medical supplies there now as well.

    from the FT. “The majority of the Chinese population has been vaccinated with the inactivated Sinovac and Sinopharm jabs, which were designed to target the original virus strain identified in Wuhan in 2020.

    “We can’t rely on old vaccines which are currently being used nationwide going forward,” said a Beijing-based adviser to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

    The individual, who did not want to be named given the subject’s sensitivity, added that CDC warehouses “are filled with Wuhan virus-based vaccines that aren’t of much use”.

    If they are lucky it will be the milder strains and they won’t have to shoot protestors en mass.

  15. 3b says:

    Juice: Not surprised on your WFH story; I am sure there is a lot of that going on. The battle will continue between WFH/ hybrid and the office, but there is no going back to the old days, recession or no recession. As leadership transitions from the old to the young, it won’t be much of an issue anymore.

  16. 3b says:

    Juice: People have no idea why rates were at 3 percent, some just seem to have the view that they will go back to those levels, but they are mistaken. I am sure realtors are out there now pushing that same line of BS. As I said the Fed really screwed up.

  17. leftwing says:

    “Ukraine spending of American tax dollars…U.S. already sent $67.3 billion in aid and Biden requested another $37.7 billion.”

    So at $105B total we’ll have sent Ukraine more than 10% of our defense budget and nearly TWICE what the Russians spend annually on defense?

    Brilliant. But keep waving those blue and yellow flags and wearing the lapel pins…and don’t forget to support the Ghost of Kiev!

  18. leftwing says:

    “…and I firmly believe it’s [China zero covid policy] the single biggest anti-inflation policy action that’s taken place so far, far more than the fed rate hikes.”

    Nice insight, seriously.

  19. Phoenix says:

    You can’t make this up:

    Ex-Navy SEAL who transitioned from male to female says he’s now transitioning BACK: Blasts VA for giving him hormones after an hour-long consultation, and calls sex change ‘the worst mistake of my life’

  20. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Not to be ignorant, but how would a male who transitioned to female transition back? Do they rebuild the parts they removed, and do they still do what the real ones did?

  21. Libturd says:

    I would just leave everything in place and would play with myself most of the day.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    Do they rebuild the parts they removed…

    I think they just remove the duct tape and unfold everything like a rolled up carpet. ;)

  23. Juice Box says:

    re: Ukraine aid….Have to look at the breakdown, and it is not all spent allot of the money is planned for a decade out. For example $2 billion for support US based energy companies?

    $17 billion for backfill of equipment sent to Ukraine. For every bullet sent a new one is ordered by the US Army. This is donated OLD stocplies of arms we have given them. You can bet our factories making bombs right now are running several shifts. We gave them over 1 million 155 mm howitzer shells. Those shells are from American Ordnance LLC made in good old IOWA.

    $10.4 billion for new arms ordered long term for the Ukrainian Army. US/EU arms manufacturer shopping list…for the future purchases. They have switched from the Soviet/Russian arms standards to NATO standards long term. Example 5.56 mm bullets and they are now our exclusive customer. All supplies going forward are from EU and US based arms manufacturers.

    $9.6 billion – All those US Troops we sent to Poland and Romania, care and feeding of their deployments they are still there as far as I know. Another permanent foothold, will require permanent quarters and bases.

    I have been saying this war will drag on. Our military and congress are spending like it will never end. List goes on the already approved spending is something like over 10 years so far.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Honestly, never seen this procedure personally, don’t even remember any time hearing of one being done in any of the facilities I have worked at, nor ever remember any co-worker mentioning any either.

    Have taken toes and made thumbs out of them. Bowel into bladder. Mucosal grafts.

    Never seen anyone make a hooha or a pecker. Can tell you this much, it won’t be easy.

    Personally not a big fan of any kind of body enhancements with a few exceptions.

    Tummy tuck and boob lift, seen some absolutely amazing transformations there.

    Panniculectomy-yeah, needs to be done, but how the hell did it get so far? Must have had a hormone issue or messed up parents-bullied, psych issues.

    Best ones are maxillofacial. Putting someone’s jaws or chin in alignment-making their teeth straight, eliminating an overbite or underbite- these guys do amazing work as your face and your smile is what makes you- the before and after are incredible. I love doing this work as it’s usually young people and you are changing their lives for the better forever.

  25. Phoenix says:

    This is not a true statement:

    I think they just remove the duct tape and unfold everything like a rolled up carpet. ;)

    We use Medipore tape.

  26. Juice Box says:

    Lib – re: “play with myself most of the day.”

    You would need to actually the new orifice needs to be dilated several times a day or it will close up on it’s own. Undoing the work of God is a full time job you know, perhaps an Only Fans channel to pay for the lifestyle.

    Now I need to go throw up my breakfast.

  27. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Interesting. I would guess if they remove something they can rebuild it back, but I also guess it would be just for show. Whatever they do, it sounds incredibly painful. And it must have a severe negative physiological impact. It’s critical that people don’t take this decision lightly; especially the young people.

  28. Phoenix says:

    Now I need to go throw up my breakfast.

    Why do that? You are only going to have to eat it again.

    And if this bothers you so much I don’t think you could make it as a housekeeper where I work cleaning up brain matter from the floor, then eating a can of sardines for lunch.

    And they do.

    Kudos to our housekeepers. Even the truly warped ones.

  29. Phoenix says:

    It’s critical that people don’t take this decision lightly; especially the young people.

    Yes sir.
    Nerves in particular don’t like to be severed. It’s a pet peeve of theirs.

    No feeling? Not sure what makes it fun then. I really didn’t like psychology all of that much, not pragmatic enough for me. However, I believe much of it is in the noggin.

    Only way to explain it. So much is psychological and social.

  30. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – my brain was throwing up….My point is people will actually go though the procedure(s) just so they can make a living off of it. The old carnival freak show, the old 42nd st peep show, here in the modern era except it costs $19.99 a month subscription to view the modern internet freak show.

  31. Phoenix says:

    When you’re born you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.

    George Carlin

  32. grim says:

    Someone needs to protect NJ from it’s politicians…

    State backs off plan to require expensive gas-to-electric boiler conversions

    The regulation was set to go into effect on December 6.

    A coalition of nearly three dozen business and labor groups joined together to oppose the plan, arguing that in addition to a cost of around $2 million per school, the regulation would result in higher property taxes and electric bills that would cost about 4-5 times more than gas.

    “We were heartened to see NJDEP remove from recent regulations the costly boiler electrification requirement,” said Eric DeGesero, the executive vice president of the Fuel Merchants Association of New Jersey. “Our concerns still remain that the Governor’s Energy Master Plan ultimately mandates all commercial buildings and residential homes be converted to electric, despite the astronomical price tag and the strain on our already fragile electric grid.”

    The regulation would have also affected nearly 1,500 apartment buildings, 1,2000 commercial, industrial and manufacturing facilities in the state, and roughly 200 government buildings.

    A group of legislators, including State Sen. Vin Gopal (D-Long Branch), introduced legislation that would stop the regulation from going into effect until the legislature had time to thoroughly review it.

    “With the removal of the boiler mandate from NJDEP rules, we just dodged a multi-billion-dollar bullet that business owners, renters, school districts, and local governments couldn’t afford,” said State Sen. Anthony M. Bucco (R-Boonton). “This is a victory for now, but we need to make sure this proposal isn’t resurrected in the future. We’ll keep fighting to ensure that the other provisions of Governor Murphy’s Energy Master Plan, which would result in tens of thousands of dollars of unnecessary costs for families and homeowners are removed as well.”

    Gov. Phil Murphy had no comment on the boiler issue in September, but said he was sympathetic to financial burden it would place in local schools and businesses.

    “Obviously, we’re going to make sure we do it responsibly, in a way where, if there’s a fiscal burden, we do it the right way,” Murphy said at the time.

  33. grim says:

    Would have sucked for us, a comparable electric boiler for us would require 434 amps @ 240v 3-phase, or 217 amps with heavy 480v 3 phase (which isn’t even available). PSEG would probably require us to drop in an 800 amp service.

    I’d wager a bet at the cost for my business being approximately $75,000 to comply, maybe even $100k.

    Not only that, there would be absolutely zero benefit to me, negative ROI, given the cost of commercial electric in NJ.

  34. grim says:

    You’d see breweries and distilleries converting to natural gas direct fired tanks, literally, giant flame-fired kettles.

  35. grim says:

    Just did the math, we’d double the operating cost per hour compared at current electric rates.

  36. Libturd says:

    I couldn’t believe it when it was originally proposed.

  37. crushednjmillenial says:

    NYC already did this sick policy with respect to new construction or substantial renovation. You cannot have gas lines, need to be electric. Absolutely ridiculous to outright ban.

  38. Ex says:

    Re: Article, our little manse is well positioned in terms of staying or leaving soCal.
    It is about supply and demand here. If you are willing to spend a Million here, you can get some amazing things in Ventura Co. If you have $500k to spend, you are out of luck.
    Amazing really. I don’t see streets paved with gold or an economy that can support these prices. I do see people who are house poor and struggling to make ends meet. Rentals are very few here as are “bargains”. People’s willingness to toss logic to the wind to live the California dream are plentiful. Rising interest rates are a killer though. If we do sell, it’ll be really interesting to see how it all plays out. We have a prime spot and an amazing view of the Topa Topa Mountains at sunset. My place borders a 50 acre farm so it’s nothing behind us but open fields. There are a nice backyard and big pool. Yet, if you compare it to what we were paying in NJ it is still less per month! Low interest rates and lower property taxes make that possible.

  39. BRT says:

    The small minded “electric good…gas bad” mindset needs to die a quick death. These people are idiots.

  40. BRT says:

    Phoenix: Not to be ignorant, but how would a male who transitioned to female transition back? Do they rebuild the parts they removed, and do they still do what the real ones did?

    There is no blueprint. All of this stuff is experimental…which is why it’s insane to do it on kids.

  41. 3b says:

    BRT: I agree , unless someone is an adult, and absolutely sure this is what they want, and have gone through rigorous psychological evaluation by more than one professional, I don’t think it should be done. As for children, absolutely not, they are not truly capable of understanding the ramifications of what they are doing to themselves. Many adults may not either, but they are adults

  42. Juice Box says:

    re: 800 amp service…We used to run a data center on that for years…

    King Murphy still out after a procedure last week. Press says he was supposed to do something today with the New Jersey Bike and Walk Coalition.

    Not sure what for but they are trying to make bike helmets mandatory for adults now. That will cut into Phoenix’s facial reconstruction business, might want to get out there down in Trenton to protest.

  43. Juice Box says:

    Elon said he was purging over a billion accounts spam bot and unused etc, but I would not be surprised if he did ban him. Kid has a website anyway, no need to follow twitter.

  44. BRT says:

    I recall the kid asking for a small buyout. Musk offered him $5k, and he countered with $50k or something and that was the end.

  45. Juice Box says:

    Elon is running Twitter like Death Row records for now, people are bound to get hit with the crossfire or taken out intentionally. I would gather anyone blocked from contacting him via DM would get added to whatever blacklists they may use. There are perhaps thousands of unhinged hating on him right now, perhaps even some real and present danger too…

  46. Juice Box says:

    Elon got booed last night at the Chapelle gig in San Francisco too, just what he wanted more attention….

  47. Ex says:

    They were saying Booooo -uuurrrrns

  48. SmallGovConservative says:

    Interesting account of the indirect impact of Bidenflation…On my lunchtime trip to Home Depot, the self-checkout lanes were closed and only three staffed lanes were open, with long lines of unhappy customers. As I was checking out, I asked the cashier why and she said it was for “loss prevention”; that self-checkout theft had skyrocketed as prices have gone up, and the store was just starting the process of re-staffing the manned checkout lanes — hence only three open currently. Thanks Joe!

  49. Ex says:

    ThAnKs JoE…. you f-cking turd burglar.

    SHoPlIftIng NeVeR hAPpened WhEn DrUmpF wAs pOtUs


  50. Ex says:

    2:42 you are truly truly stupid.

  51. BRT says:

    lol, we are going after Binance but not FTX? I guess the Dems are mad because Binance screwed them out of further FTX “donations”.

  52. BRT says:


    I’d say it was a mixed reaction

  53. Fast Eddie says:


    Agree on the theft. It seems to be out of control the last few years. The war on law enforcement and thieves viewed as victims has proliferated. Turning a blind eye to the smash and grab society has become another progressive feather in their cap.

  54. Hughesrep says:


    The ban was on new gas lines in Westchester County. It wasn’t anything green related, it’s because they are running out of capacity in the gas infrastructure.

    My company explored an electric boiler line when that was going on, it was was a joke. They can get away with it in Europe, but they still live in mud huts.

  55. Jim says:


    Wait a week to get a CD , they should go up another quarter or more. Current offering from TD America. Actually have dropped a little from last month.


    Maturity [^] APY*
    3 months 4.4% View 3-month CDs
    6 months 4.65% View 6-month CDs
    9 months 4.75% View 9-month CDs
    1 year 5.011% View 1-year CDs
    2 years 4.858% View 2-year CDs
    5+ years 5.273% View 5+year CDs
    We also offer access to secondary market CDs and step-up CDs

    Like a bond you can actually sell them at a profit.

  56. Hughesrep says:

    Re theft in stores. When I ran Lowes stores only 10% of all losses were straight theft. The rest were operations errors and employee screwups. Probably true today as well, no matter what Blanche the cashier says.

    The “Loss Preventions” specialists spent the bulk of their time figuring out screwups from paperwork in shipping and receiving. The rest of their time was spent in the camera room checking out hot women in the stores with the zoom in cameras. They never caught anyone stealing.

  57. Fast Eddie says:

    12/07/2022 — WASHINGTON (TND) — Shoplifting causing big problems for one of the nation’s largest retailers.

    Shoplifting causing big problems for one of the nation’s largest retailers.

    “Theft is an issue. It’s higher than what it’s historically been,” said Walmart CEO Doug McMillon on CNBC.

    McMillion went on to say they will have to change the way they do business if crime trends continue.

    “If that’s not corrected over time, prices will be higher and/or stores will close,” McMillon said.

    Walmart is not alone. During an earnings call last month, the CEO of Target blamed organized retail crime for $400 million of losses.

    Over the summer, San Francisco Police arrested a man and seized $200,000 of stolen retail goods. CEOs and business leaders place blame on the decriminalizing of lower-level theft, a policy promoted by progressive prosecutors and a move they say emboldens would-be criminals.

    “There are places like San Francisco or New York where they have basically said if you’re stealing under $1,000 worth of merchandise, it’s no longer a felony,” said Joel Griffith, a research fellow for financial regulations at the Heritage Foundation.

    With few options, companies are increasingly choosing to place shelf items behind lock and key. One gas station in Philadelphia even hired armed guards.

    The bill for these increased security measures and the lost revenue from stolen goods is often passed onto the consumer if businesses want to survive.

    “The costs incurred by retail centers from stolen merchandise, that’s passed along to consumers,” Griffith said. “These stores are having to put in place additional security personnel, security cameras, plexiglass. Anytime that a retail center — whether it’s 7/11 or Target or Walmart — when they see additional costs incurred because of theft, those costs have to be passed along either to consumers or they come out of the profits.”

  58. Hughesrep says:

    Walmart lost $400 million due to theft? They did $600 billion in sales.

    $400 million isn’t even a rounding error.

    They could tighten up their ship by .1 % and cover that up.

    Is that this weeks talking point? I prefer the classics, can’t we just play Migrant Caravan?

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Finally they are talking about it. I’ve been complaining about this for years. It’s wasteful, obnoxious, and does more harm than good on the environment. Good job, Time.

    “The U.S.’ Addiction to Road Salt is Out of Control. These Cities are Trying to Cut Back”

  60. BRT says:

    Actually, you were defending it when salt was being deployed on 40 degree days for an entire season in which we had almost no freezing days. You don’t remember?

  61. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nah, I don’t. I remember mocking all the complainers. They bitched and bitched about murphy’s handling of the snowstorm…that he didn’t salt early enough. Well, he then painted the streets white on any chance there might be snow to appease the cry babies. F’ing losers. Hence, why govt is impossible to run efficiently…you can’t make everyone happy.

  62. Libturd says:

    I was the anti-salter.

    Salt would not have mattered on the missed Murphy storm. He just chose not to even plow that early storm. People were trapped in their cars overnight on 280.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    Hughes: 2 things – (1) retail is an extremely small margin business; don’t look at % of sales, but rather operating margins; (2) theft is probably highly variable based on location – I think shutting down locations that are high-crime/soft-on-prosecuting is a strong business case, but it creates bad publicity.

    Hughesrep says:
    December 12, 2022 at 4:42 pm
    Walmart lost $400 million due to theft? They did $600 billion in sales.

    $400 million isn’t even a rounding error.

    They could tighten up their ship by .1 % and cover that up.

    Is that this weeks talking point? I prefer the classics, can’t we just play Migrant Caravan?

  64. crushednjmillenial says:

    Hughes rep at 3:45 . . .

    “In 2021, New York City became the largest city in the United States to ban gas connections for new buildings. Starting in 2023, newly constructed buildings under seven stories will not be allowed to use gas for cooking or space heating, and beginning in 2027 this will also apply to taller buildings. The Rocky Mountain Institute estimated that this would save a cumulative 2.1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2040, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 450,000 cars.

    The success of New York City’s law led to a similar proposal in 2021 for New York State: the All-Electric Building Act. In 2022, Governor Kathy Hochul proposed a version of the bill in her January budget. However, the budget requires agreement between the governor, the Assembly, and the Senate. Assembly speaker Carl Heastie objected to the inclusion of the gas ban in the budget.”

  65. chicagofinance says:

    JPMorgan Chase Institute: 13% of Americans Have Bought Into Crypto

    By David Benoit

    Regulators and lawmakers debating how or whether to weigh in on cryptocurrency have struggled with some basic questions: How widespread is cryptocurrency ownership and how much could it impact the economy?

    The JPMorgan Chase Institute on Monday released fresh data culled from the actions of the customers of the biggest bank in the country that could help determine its reach into household wealth. In sum: A lot more people have moved some money into crypto, and probably lost a lot of it, but few have large amounts at risk.

    The Institute, the bank’s inhouse think tank, looked at transfers from Chase bank accounts to and from crypto accounts.

    They found ownership rising sharply: As of June, about 13% of all households had transferred funds into or out of a crypto account at least one time, up from 3% before the pandemic.

    But most people are dabbling. The median amount transferred totaled just $620 and the vast majority of people moved less than one month of their income into crypto.
    That’s probably good because the transfers surged as crypto prices soared last year. The typical transfer happened when bitcoin was around $43,900, the Institute determined. Bitcoin is now around $17,000.

    Who is doing it? Asian millennial men are by far the most likely to have invested in crypto, the data shows. Overall, men are more likely to have jumped in than women, and by age group it’s millennials. By income, ownership generally increases as income increases.

    Chris Wheat, the president of the JPMorgan Chase Institute, said the group wanted to get some data on how the crypto phenomenon could impact the broader economy. That’s a question on the minds of Congress as they hold hearings this week on the collapse of FTX.

  66. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The trial, which may see residents have to drive a few blocks over snowy roads to reach major arteries, is Davenport’s attempt to “find a balance” between road safety and a growing list of problems associated with road salt, says public works director Nicole Gleason.
    Ice-free roads may be good for drivers, but scientists warn that salt is seeping into lakes and rivers, including the Mississippi, killing wildlife and posing health risks to humans. Salt also corrodes asphalt and metal, causing some $5 billion in damage each year to roads and cars. And it lures deer and moose onto highways to lick it up, triggering accidents.
    And yet, North Americans are addicted to road salt. Road crews have been pouring the stuff in ever greater quantities since the 1950’s, when cars and highways began to proliferate across the region. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the amount of salt used on U.S. roads ballooned from 1 million tons in 1954, to 10 million tons in 1985, to around 24 million tons a year by 2019, as drivers demanded increasing levels of safety and convenience. “Fifteen years ago, it wasn’t common practice to expect dry pavement after snow,” Gleason says. “But somehow this idea has taken over that everyone should be driving like it’s summer in the winter.””

  67. Juice Box says:

    War Drone Porn.

    Grenade down the stove pipe…

  68. leftwing says:

    Will your suburban insecurities allow you all to stop spraying Midwestern poop all over lawns next, please…just as bad as salt for the environment…

    So SBF is arrested…on the eve of his testimony to Congress…

  69. Juice Box says:

    Saw that SBF in the Bahamian clink. Rumors are Caroline dropped a dime to the SDNY..

  70. Ex says:

    Arrest goblin girl too that for looking like a f-cking nightmare.

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    $400 million isn’t even a rounding error.

    Dear stock holders, investors and board members, it’s a rounding error. Pay no attention to it, nothing to see here. We’ll umm… pretend it never happens. After all, mankind is our business, their welfare and well-being is our business.

  72. Juice Box says:

    Shrink rate average is 1.6 % or about 8 billion a year for Walmart. Hardly a rounding error. The retail sector has reported that shoplifting has increased 26% annually. It becomes cost justifiable to remove self checkout in some stores, all depends on the store, some of the jersey ones I have been too are like the Wild West at checkout, one person covering all the lanes. Many times people will walk out without paying due to frustration for lack of help. Loss prevention in most retail focuses on the gangs these days, they respond to a man agent call of activity and warn stores up the highway or next mall for example before the gang can get there to raid the place, as well as the local PD. The surveillance is on the gangs not grandma sneaking a streak in her purse.

  73. Juice Box says:

    Steak you get it…

  74. Chicago says:

    Just reading posts online relating to the SBF arrest.

    Not to worry, they’ll rat one another out in same as all thugs & commies.

    She looks like a typical leftist broad, lumpy, dumpy, frumpy, grumpy, stumpy.

    He looks as if he just blew out of a tornado.

  75. Ex says:

    Sex tape to follow.

  76. Hughesrep says:


    Shrink is all encompassing. Typically customer theft is a small percentage of that. Operational issues are a much larger part of shrink. Employee theft or complicit theft is historically a larger part than straight shoplifting.

    I’d agree that the self checkout is self defeating in some places, and its a PIMA. Inevitably something won’t scan, or the weight is to light to register, or its a big heavy box/bag of something I just want to keep in the cart, so I need a cashier to override it anyway. Defeating the purpose.

    I always hired young, hot cashiers and front end personnel. A guy could have a terrible store experience, but would forget about it if a pretty girl smiled at them at the end. Kept the complaints low and people off my back.

  77. leftwing says:

    Chi, from our conversation at the beginning of this month:

    “Backdrop….given where we (SPX) are right now by most measures…volatility is wildly underpriced…VIX is below 20…For anyone long and with how cheap downside move/protection is with the low VIX it’s nearly a free trade…”

    Chi, from our conversation at the beginning of the month…I took advantage of the VIX hitting 25 yesterday and I’m out of that trade. Funny anomaly there I’ll touch on in a second.

    I did put a new vol trade on…for this morning an ATM spread that settles tomorrow before market open and pays 4:1 if VIX is 25 or higher. Lower but not horrible probability but very positively skewed returns…marking this as gaming as I would not do it absent my gains from above and the trade I note below by someone else…as I type this though I am regretting not throwing more at this trade.

    Anyway, the anomaly…people are incredibly edgy about this market…some of the prints OMG…I’m more than happy with my returns on my trade but VIX was at 20 when I put it on and the SPX not far off from where it is now…there is no reason that with a flattish SPX and the known events that VIX expanded from 20 to 25 through yesterday…I mean I’ll take it lol but…everyone is buying insurance these last two weeks…someone came in yesterday and bought over 42,000 contracts in a 26/30 VIX spread for 12/21 for 0.40 each…that’s almost $2m in a trade where the setup is overwhelmingly that vol contracts post Fed (ie, the trade loses) and a very unusual trade for those instruments…also look at the put/call ratio activity broadly…meanwhile lunchtime yesterday you could have bought the VIX 23 call expiring tomorrow AM (before the Fed releases and presser) for 1.00 while spot was was 24.45…read that line again and think about it…bottom line, there is that very rare combination in the market of both fear and greed which to me sets up for potentially some face ripping moves. Either direction. Even against all fundamentals (I’m still looking at 200 in SPX earnings for 2023) you could see a screamer rally just based on where everyone is positioned. Anyway, practice rounds are in, drivers are lining up for the qualifier, and those lights go out at 8:30 this morning….GL brother.

  78. Juice Box says:

    Hughes shoplifting is not a small part of shrink, it’s half or even more. The $400 million dollars number quoted is from Target not Walmart. The latest real number from Walmart is in the billions, but they won’t say exactly, but we can extrapolate as Walmart does what 7x more in sales that would mean around 3 billion.

    National Retail Federation reported shoplifting is up about 26% that could make Walmarts shoplifting losses in the neighborhood of 4-5 billion or more, it’s significant and when other chains like pharmacies close stores in the middle of a city it is not because of lack of foot traffic. 38 states have changed the law to raise shoplifting felony to $1000 or more in merchandise to effect a felony arrest. The gangs know this and so does grandma, loss prevention focuses on the bigger issue which is the gangs. Little known out there is that across retail brands they share info on the gangs in real time to warn each other including competitors, as when they hit a Best Buy like they did in Jersey City this month they will walked out with $20,000 or more in merchandise in one swarm of shoplifting.

  79. Fabius Maximus says:

    Wow, lots to digest over the past few days posts. With all the gaslighting, you would think Leftwing was trading Nat Gas futures!
    Twitter, private firm, so they get to do what they want. If they want to fight misinformation from the election (Hunters Laptop) that’s their prerogative. Boths sides where appealing to the Ref (what a football reference), Kevin McCarthey audio has surfaced of him looking to suppress the accounts of those involved with Jan 6th.
    When you finish with Twitter, do you want to comment on Fox “Fair and Balanced?”
    Grimer/Whelan, yes exchanges are diplomatic. Donnie had the chance to make the same trade for Whelan and choose not to, his choice, I cant criticize it. But it does remind me of 1980. I thought then that if Carter got the Iranian hostages back, he would have won the election. St Ronnie got them back a few months after he won and then we had Iran Contra, go figure?

    Here’s a nice piece on Donnies response to covid.

    This article examines the Trump Administration’s inability to mount a timely and effective response to the COVID‐19 outbreak, despite ample warning. Through an empirical exploration guided by three explanatory perspectives—psychological, bureau‐organizational, and agenda‐political—developed from the strategic surprise, public administration, and crisis management literature, the authors seek to shed light on the mechanisms that contributed to the underestimation of the coronavirus threat by the Trump Administration and the slow and mismanaged federal response. The analysis highlights the extent to which the factors identified by previous studies of policy surprise and failure in other security domains are relevant for health security. The paper concludes by addressing the crucial role of executive leadership as an underlying factor in all three perspectives and discussing why the US president is ultimately responsible for ensuring a healthy policy process to guard against the pathologies implicated in the federal government’s sub‐optimal response to the COVID‐19 crisis.”

  80. Juice Box says:

    Fab – More People died of Covid under Joe Biden presidency than than under Trump. Who’s administration failed and continues to fail over Covid, or perhaps it’s both? I just spent a week in lockdown because the bivalent booster I got in Sept did zero for Covid. It did not prevent infection or the spread of infection, it’s now wiping out our school system here as we speak huge amount of people out sick.

    but as to your article link…

    quoted —> “Like other infamous examples of alleged “surprises” in American history—for example, Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the 2001 9/11 attacks, Hurricane Katrina, and the 2008 financial crisis—the pandemic was anticipated.”

    Look that is some “surprise” strawman from your link. So now we could have stopped Perl Harbor and or 9/11 and all future acts of war and future terrorists attacks stoppable now because we anticipate it will eventually happen?

    BTW the Hunter Laptop was not misinformation or Russian as you continue to claim, and there was election interference from many folks over that, but look the October surprise is what it is everyone tries to swing the election, even all those ex CIA, NSA, FBI retired folks that signed onto that memo tried to swing the election, you know the 51 intelligence agents that gave Joe Biden a talking point to lie during the 2nd debate, and lie he did, it was all real and you can bet he and his people in the campaign knew it too.

    Get the popcorn the hearings are going to be fun to watch for the next two years. I cannot wait until they trot out the banking records…

    Look I neither want Trump around or Sleepy Joe in 2024. How about the Dems and Repubs at least start with getting someone to run who is not a geriatric and does not lie all the damm time.

  81. leftwing says:

    “…the authors seek to shed light on the mechanisms that contributed to the underestimation of the coronavirus threat…”

    With that abstract I didn’t even open the article. my perspective, again, we wildly panicked for no reason regarding C19 and over reacted….great grandma, the immuno-compromised, and lifestyle co-morbidities were at risk. Instead of advising those at-risk populations to lockdown we instead – for the first time and against all logic – locked down the healthy population causing all the hugely negative ancillary effects we continue to suffer through today.

    We over reacted, we did not under estimate….

    Regarding Greiner/Whelan/the other detained cannabis bagholder…to be clear Bout should not be exchanged for any of them…he is too high value an asset for these (diplomatically) meaningless individuals…you hold Bout until Putin (or his satellites) has an equal value asset of yours you really need back….that’s the trade you make.

  82. leftwing says:

    And we’re off…wow, that green bar….

  83. Juice Box says:

    CPI – print shows a tick down.


    The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally
    adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
    today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

    The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, more than
    offsetting decreases in energy indexes. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the
    food at home index also rising 0.5 percent. The energy index decreased 1.6 percent over the month as
    the gasoline index, the natural gas index, and the electricity index all declined.

    The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent
    in October. The indexes for shelter, communication, recreation, motor vehicle insurance, education,
    and apparel were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in November include
    the used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares indexes.

    The all items index increased 7.1 percent for the 12 months ending November; this was the smallest
    12-month increase since the period ending December 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose
    6.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 13.1 percent for the 12 months ending
    November, and the food index increased 10.6 percent over the last year; all of these increases were
    smaller than for the period ending October.

  84. Juice Box says:

    Tick down from consensus estimates of 7.3% the print is 7.1%.. Some were hoping for a 6 handle…DOW and S&P futures slightly up 2-3%..

  85. leftwing says:

    Slightly up misstates it a bit, no, lol….SPX futures making Dow-like triple digit moves…that’s A LOT….

  86. Juice Box says:

    Yeah they might pickup the rest of the crew from FTX too soon.

    Wire Fraud Conspiracy charge alone….

    Conspiracy – “a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful.”

    Rumor from an Australian financial website is that they had a secret chat channel on the Signal platform. They named that chat channel “wirefraud”. SBF was asked about it on one of his twitter sessions where he was busy digging his criminal case from just 6 ft under to all the way to the center of the earth. He denied it, but it seems Caroline dropped the dime.

    SBF seems to have admitted during one of these twitter chat sessions that all the money received and assets were funneled to Alameda accounts, and a ledger entry was only added on the FTX side. Again you cannot wire fraud crypto. It is not real money. That is why the media reports 1.8 billion (real money), so they bank the used in the USA is Silvergate, the crypto bank. If they have the chats “conspiracy” and the actual bank records, he is going away for quite a long time. Not sure but I believe he is now on his 3rd set of lawyers in only a month.

  87. leftwing says:

    Reports on CNBC this morning had documentation of SBF moving funds around to avoid detection that he had misappropriated them…cited was him moving some from an interest bearing account to a non-interest bearing account as the amount of interest generated would have raised questions, ie. what are the underlying funds/where did they originate….couldn’t have an interest line item of that size as it would as it would have exposed him so he moved the funds somewhere they wouldn’t generate interest.

    This guy is fucked lol.

  88. Juice Box says:

    Just so everyone understands FTX was using the Signal Platform to build a social media planform for crypto. Not only with his own employees but with other Crypto firms, allot of investigation going on now. Even some real reporters too like the WSJ.

    Here is a story WSJ broke..

    “Tether executives and Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao worried that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), former FTX CEO, was attempting to destabilize the crypto market aiming to save the now-bankrupt exchange, according to reports on Dec. 9.

    Messages seen by The Wall Street Journal of a Signal group chat named “Exchange coordination” reveals an argument between CZ and SBF on Nov. 10 about Tether’s stablecoin Tether.

    According to the report, CZ and others in the group worried that trades made by Alameda Research were focusing on depeg the stablecoin, which would have a ripple effect in crypto prices. Binance CEO reportedly confronted SBF (on Signal).

    “Stop trying to depeg stablecoins. And stop doing anything. Stop now, don’t cause more damage.”

    SBF denied the claims in a statement to the WSJ. Members in the Signal group include Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell, Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer of Tether, among others.

    The alleged argument happened a day after Binance announced that it wouldn’t bail out its troubled competitor FTX, citing “reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations.” On Nov. 10, Tether’s Ardoino also said the company has no “plans to invest or lend money to FTX/Alameda.”

    More to come, if the Feds now have the encrypted communications between the Crypto traders and crypto exchanges we will be seeing perhaps more collusions charges….for all kinds of schemes and frauds.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The irony of all this SBF bs…..this is exactly why bitcoin was started. Human corruption is a f/ing bitch. The irony….

  90. leftwing says:

    Oh, and BTW, these ‘kids’ at FTX are the exact same profile of the ‘analysts’ hired by CW at ARKK….remember, she specifically wanted ‘storytellers’…her words, not mine

  91. Juice Box says:

    One thing about these stable coins. They are used as collateral for crypto trades across the platforms, as in some cases are backed by real cash or US treasuries. The reason being they can trade these stable coins as cash without actually having to move real cash in the banking systems, which would generate all kinds of SAR reports etc, like trying to move money from a sanctioned country to a US bank would. Move it in stable coin from say a US crypto exchange to Binance (they claim no real home), and then use the banking system they have available in Asia (sinagpore comes to mind) to convert the stable coin to cash.

    We will hear more about it as Binance has been saying they want to own banks……but now our DOJ is looking to possibly prosecute them so says the media this week anyway.

    If the Feds do have the Signal Platform chats we will be hearing more, as well if someone gave the WSJ access you can bet the Feds have flipped a few more for access too.

  92. Juice Box says:

    I am not sure is the new NBA Trophy non-binary?

    “The Michael Jordan Trophy – Awarded to the Kia NBA Most Valuable Player

    The league’s MVP will now be awarded The Michael Jordan Trophy, bearing the name of the NBA legend widely regarded as one of the greatest players of all time. During his career, Jordan was MVP five times.”

    Image below. (yes it’s real)

  93. Juice Box says:

    Whoops spoke too soon, about stable coins…People are heading for the exists….

    “Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, said Tuesday it is pausing withdrawals of the stablecoin USDC while it carries out a “token swap.””

    Changpeng Zhao, CEO of Binance, tweeted on Tuesday that the exchange is seeing an increase in withdrawals of USDC, a cryptocurrency known as a stablecoin because it is pegged one-to-one with the U.S. dollar

    USDC is used by investors to trade in and out of different cryptocurrencies without the need to move money back into U.S. dollars. If traders are withdrawing USDC from Binance, it could be to move it onto another platform.

    Zhao said that any transfers into USDC from the stablecoin known as PAX, as well as Binance’s own token BUSD, require routing through a bank based in New York which is not yet open. The suggestion from Zhao is that users are looking to convert their PAX and BUSD into USDC in order to withdraw their funds from Binance.

    A token swap could be a way for Binance to get more USDC quickly while the banks are closed in order to resume withdrawals for customers.

  94. Juice Box says:

    John Ray the new CEO of FTX is now now testifying before the house financial services committee since SBF dance calendar is booked solid at the Fox Hill Jail in the Bahamas.

    1)John Ray said there was no segregation between FTX and Alameda, at all.

    2) Talking about the billion dollar loans now..not much paperwork on the loans such as a repayment agreement in writing. SBF signed as both issuer and recipient of the loans…lol….

    link to the testimony live..

  95. leftwing says:

    “SBF signed as both issuer and recipient of the loans…lol….”

    Well that’s a neat trick…that alone, relatively minor among everything alleged, is enough…can’t do that, lol.

    chi, been helping Schwab’s bottom line with some commissions the last hour…VIX position dead obviously, cleaned out some swing plays like TRIP that I put on last week, using this pop to put on some cheap hedges for my META (up 5% this morning) and my SPY positions out to January…

    Not a bad idea as volatility has come in if you have some nice gains today and feel the market is headed down to toss on some hedges…not sure what JPow can say tomorrow that would further boost the market, if anything i would imagine he’d want to talk it down….

  96. leftwing says:

    Damn, listening to this guy Ray answer the Committee’s questions I would have paid for the entertainment of having SBF come on after him…too bad…

  97. Juice Box says:

    Leftwing you are out in left field, there is a new thread since this morning…

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