Fed raises, mortgage rates flat

From Mortgage News Daily:

Mortgage Rates Remain Near Recent Lows Despite Fed’s Rate Hike

It’s often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further consequence to financial market movement.  There are exceptions for times when the hike is bigger or smaller than expected, but in today’s case, everyone knew it would be 0.50%.

Does this mean mortgage rates are 0.50% higher today?  Not even remotely.  In fact, many lenders unchanged compared to yesterday.  A few are even slightly better.  

Simply avoiding any major upward pressure in rates is a victory today.  But why?  If the Fed rate hike wasn’t the threat, then what was there to be concerned about?  

In a word: dots.  

No, not the perennial bottom barrel choice of trick-or-treaters, but rather, the dot plot that the Fed uses to convey its summary of interest rate forecasts from each member.  On days like today when the Fed has very little new to say in a policy announcement, the market prefers to focus on the dots for guidance.

We knew today’s dots would show a few more rate hikes than the last set of dots from September.  The Fed said as much on several occasions in recent speeches.  But reality was perhaps slightly more aggressive than the market’s imagination.  In other words, bonds (which dictate rates) initially weakened after the dots (weaker bonds imply higher rates).  

Fortunately, Fed Chair Powell pushed back against the rising rate sentiment by acknowledging that the dots capture the current moment in time, but that the rate path would shift as soon as inflation was clearly under control.  Making that determination will be a gradual process reserved for a later date, but Powell said the Fed expects inflation to begin falling more convincingly in 2023.

All in all, the market movement was small compared to yesterday’s reaction to the CPI inflation data.  Lenders who had priced more conservatively earlier in the day ended up offering improvements after Powell’s press conference in many cases.  The net effect is a rate landscape that remains right in line with its best levels in several months.

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95 Responses to Fed raises, mortgage rates flat

  1. detss dunnigan says:

    first

  2. Hold my beer says:

    I disagree with this article. I like dots. Not as good as juicy fruit but a decent alternative.

  3. grim says:

    Only when they are fresh, otherwise they are like tar.

  4. grim says:

    Read Sam Bankfraud’s statement, listened to a bunch of the testimony. He needs to go to jail, but at the same time, it’s clear that every last piece of flesh will be torn off the corpse by vultures. This will be stretched, prolonged, dirt will come out one grain at a time for the next 5 years. Fees baby, fees.

    This is the way.

  5. Chicago says:

    The writer responsible for the lead article is a hack. Completely ignorant of market dynamics.

    Especially this
    “ It’s often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further consequence to financial market movement. There are exceptions for times when the hike is bigger or smaller than expected, but in today’s case, everyone knew it would be 0.50%.”

  6. grim says:

    Matt Graham was a bubble blogger that parlayed that into the company that’s Mortgage News Daily. I remember him being a regular poster over at Calculated Risk as well.

    Not that having been a bubble blogger bestows the kind of credibility I’d hope it would…

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    It’s often said here, but bears repeating: by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further consequence to financial market movement.

    So, it’s not already priced in at that point? I’ve heard it time and time again; just the anticipation of any economic event has already been felt by the market. What part of it isn’t true and why is this statement above not accurate?

  8. grim says:

    CD rates down, let’s see if that sticks through the day, should have locked those ladders pre-meeting. Looks like down .1 to .15 from Monday/Tuesday.

  9. grim says:

    From Vox:

    Americans are draining the money they saved during the pandemic

    Keith Miller, a technician at an air compressor plant in Connersville, Indiana, was able to build his savings for the first time during the pandemic — he had about $16,000 stored away at one point last year.

    Miller, 48, said he was working extra hours since orders at the plant had increased early in the pandemic. Stimulus checks and extra child tax credit payments from the federal government also helped Miller cover necessary expenses for himself and his 8-year-old son, allowing him to save.

    But the plant cut back his hours more than a year ago, and the federal government stopped sending out expanded child tax credit payments at the end of last year. At the same time, many necessities have become more expensive, including Miller’s monthly rent and milk at the grocery store. Miller said he went from having extra money in his account to being worried about making ends meet, and he’s now about $700 behind on paying his electricity bills.

    “I honestly don’t have any savings. It’s gone,” Miller said. “If things keep getting worse, I don’t know what we’re going to do.”

    Miller isn’t alone. Many Americans piled up their savings during the pandemic after lawmakers passed rounds of stimulus measures to prop up the economy, and as households spent less on travel and other in-person events. But with many stimulus programs over, excess savings are quickly dwindling as inflation has spiked and stretched people’s budgets. And even though a strong labor market has led to fast wage growth, inflation has outpaced those gains.

  10. grim says:

    New sighting of Ellison in NYC, becoming more clear she’s the mastermind behind the indictment – https://tinyurl.com/dzrufpcd

  11. Chicago says:

    Bill Dudley……. Potential terminal rate between 6-8%

    Booya

  12. Juice Box says:

    It wasn’t just Ellison that sang. It was also Singh!

    Did you see my post about the FTX/Alameda source code? Someone gave the Feds the source code and to the press as well. Programmer aka FTX executive Nishad Singh

    From Bloomberg today..

    “A GitHub account bearing the name of former FTX executive Nishad Singh authored code that hid Alameda Research’s ballooning liabilities on the now-collapsed cryptocurrency exchange, according to internal documentation reviewed by Bloomberg News.

    The documentation, in the form of comments associated with specific lines of code, offers clues to the origins of a mysterious account on FTX that a regulator alleges helped mask mounting debts of its sister trading firm Alameda Research. The relationship between the two firms, and alleged misuse of FTX customer funds, led to criminal charges against founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

  13. grim says:

    If Wayne’s recycling fiasco is indicative of broader trends in NJ municipal government, lube up.

    Canceled contract w/ recycler due to new contract rate having a 120% increase year over year.

    Sign new contract with recycler at 50% increase year over year.

    That’s more than a million a year unbudgeted expense due to inflation.

  14. grim says:

    Yeah was reading that yesterday. For sure Singh and Ellison were the cooperators. She’d be in handcuffs just the same otherwise.

    Were they screwing too? Cooperation or Conspiracy?

  15. Juice Box says:

    re: recycler – Got my quarterly sewer bill, separate town utility from the regular property taxes. It’s up too, my taxes are going up allot do to the annual assessment. No way I can get what they assessed me for, they tacked on $124,000 so I am doing the appeal.

    Anecdotal our Garbage Man left a nice envelope with a letter taped to the can this week, almost did not open it as it was on the can lid and I thought it was garbage until I saw the tape. I gather he is looking for a holiday tip… Even if he gets 20% homes to tip $20 he is in for a nice cash payday.

  16. 3b says:

    Chgo: Dudley has had that view since the summer in spite of all the talk about a Fed pivot/pause. He is a really bright guy,not that in and of itself means anything, but he was highly regarded when he was our FI economist back in the day.

  17. 3b says:

    Even after yesterday s Fed decision there is still chatter out there about a pivot/ pause. Such comments as he is bluffing, he is just jaw boning markets, he will be forced to cut rates, he won’t want to cause a recession, and on it goes. I believe he is serious, and with some fits and starts has been since the Jackson Hole meeting in August. Powell is far more concerned about inflation and his legacy then a recession.

  18. Old realtor says:

    More news on garbage costs…Check out this story from North Jersey: Paterson faces 100% increase in garbage disposal costs. This is why

    With a looming budget deficit that could grow to $18 million, city officials are scrambling to avoid a massive increase in Paterson’s garbage collections costs.

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2022/12/15/paterson-nj-faces-100-increase-in-garbage-disposal-costs/69728994007/

  19. Juice Box says:

    One thing I always questioned about FTX (real or scam) when I first saw it in 2019 was their exchange’s trade matching engine, it was printing a flurry of complex trades across the screen, my belief was they had that much volume and complexity of coin futures basically out of the gate.

    We are talking pretty complex software if they were truly an exchange and had market makers etc. It’s not like you can whip up code to do Allocation, FIFO, FIFO with market makers and all the other complexities including currencies and mini futures etc….

  20. crushednjmillenial says:

    Do towns in NJ drop their recycling programs? Limit them to aluminum only?

    Since China stopped importing the “recyclable” refuse, the recycling industry has bleaker and bleaker prospects. On the other hand, so many people believe that recycling is actually effective or useful in its current manifestation, when it is mostly not.

  21. Old realtor says:

    In my town it was just announced that your water bill will increase by 26% over the next 2 years. What could be more basic than food, water and garbage? Related costs to these items exploding.

  22. Libturd says:

    sounds like a whole lotta recession talk.

  23. Libturd says:

    Fear not. If you run outta money, just follow Essex’ advice.

    “Why don’t you eat a dick?”

  24. Juice Box says:

    Claw it all back, seems this FTX exec went to his home town in Massachusetts and bought a bunch of businesses. He dropped a dime on SBF and seems to be cooperating.

    “FTX Digital Markets co-CEO Ryan Salame, shown here in 2021 outside one of the restaurants he has purchased in Lenox”

    https://www.berkshireeagle.com/breaking/ryan-salame-ftx-told-bahamian-regulators-of-asset-transfers/article_333649f4-7c0b-11ed-9953-fba323df259f.html

  25. grim says:

    The ships bringing the recycling to china just dump halfway and come back for more. We pay them to take it now.

    The real hoax is the concept of recycling at all. We need to eliminate disposable containers, let’s start with banning bottled water in anything under a 1 gallon container size.

  26. Bystander says:

    “And even though a strong labor market has led to fast wage growth, inflation has outpaced those gains.”

    To me, one of the biggest lies of the times. It is very easy to get $15 hour..great but still hard to move up into higher paying roles. Easy to move down ladder as lot companies still trying to get old , out of date salaries from 3 years ago. Most people are not switching jobs and seeing big gains in white collar. It is still very hard to get in the door for interview and the expectations are off the charts. I had one last week with compliance tech. They have $120m series B and trying to expand in US. They really wanted me to interview but said that it is pre-sales role and they need expert to pitch to clients. I asked about equity or commission and said they are not offering either. I declined. They call back and say that they will consider equity now. I get job description and it is a page long about being regulatory SME, technical demo lead with execs but also running Agile dev team, client on-boarding, custom quote estimation and being responsible for overall product strategy. I talked to head of talent and was frank that this seems like alot of roles combined and it would be hard to find someone with specific regulatory knowledge on FINRA,SEC rules etc, honed sales skills and ability to lead dev team. He agreed but still trying to find unicorn. The money was good but not earth shattering for a start-up.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Yes good old greenwashing only 8-9% of plastics are actually recycled.

    https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/chemical-recycling-greenwashing-incineration-ib.pdf

    There is a movement to open more plants to melt it all down and actually recycle but the NIMBY Environmental don’t actually want it in our back yard, they would rather do head in the sand and bury or ship it somewhere else to be dumped.

  28. Ex says:

    8:49 also works for insurrection loving bastawds.

  29. Ex says:

    And if history is any guide….
    The world’s oldest narrative scene, depicting humans and animals in a two-panel carving, has been discovered by archaeologists in Turkey.

    The research, published in the peer-reviewed journal Antiquity, describes an 11,000-year-old complex at Sayburç, with several residential buildings and a large communal structure. The engraving was found on benches that line the walls in a communal area.

    Both panels portray a person facing dangerous animals—the flat relief on the left shows a squatting male figure holding a rattle or a snake against a bull, while the right shows a male figure in high relief holding its phallus (dick) as leopards approach from both sides.

  30. Hold my bear says:

    Our water, sewage, garbage, recycling, and runoff are lumped into one monthly bill. When I got the latest bill it was $170, which is what it costs us to have the sprinklers running in the summer. I checked the water usage thinking maybe we have a leaking sprinkler, nope, about the same usage as last year. Monthly bill without sprinklers was usually around $120-$130. Our gas bill went way up to. Was $110. Rarely goes over that even in January and February. The months we don’t have the heat on it’s $25 or less. And our 2 year fixed electric rate comes up for renewal in feb or March. Wonder how much of an increase that will be.

  31. Grim says:

    I get job description and it is a page long about being regulatory SME, technical demo lead with execs but also running Agile dev team, client on-boarding, custom quote estimation and being responsible for overall product strategy.

    So what exactly do the founders do? Vacation?

  32. 1987 Condo says:

    There is a you tube out there where a a guy in Britain drops a tracker into his plastic recyclable. He follows it across europe to a final destination in Poland. How much did it cost in $$ and Co2 to transport it there.

    Grim is 100%, limits on plastic containers or direct surcharges to the manufacturers for using plastics, etc.

    May be cheaper/cleaner to send to Newark incinerator.

  33. Libturd says:

    Chi Latte,

    Was looking back and saw this prescient post. Excellent call, when I was doubting the willingness of Powell.

    “chicagofinance says:
    April 6, 2022 at 12:44 pm
    It is different this time (shut up peanut gallery). I really do believe they are finally going to let ‘er rip. If they don’t, society will literally disintegrate. Start looking around the world on the impact of food inflation. Look at Peru. We are talking about bourgeoise shit on these threads. We in store for another Arab spring, Africa on fire. Possibly the only upside is that Xi could get weakened.”

  34. Phoenix says:

    Too bad he is not from the Ukraine. Not only does he have to pay more in taxes to fund them, but the assistance this fellow American needs is being spent elsewhere.
    All of the years he spent paying taxes, trying to save.

    Remember that, Mr. Miller, when the time comes to salute your flag. Your president is spending what should be for you, and your “Fellow Americans.”

    From Vox:

    Americans are draining the money they saved during the pandemic

    Keith Miller, a technician at an air compressor plant in Connersville, Indiana, was able to build his savings for the first time during the pandemic — he had about $16,000 stored away at one point last year.

    Miller, 48, said he was working extra hours since orders at the plant had increased early in the pandemic. Stimulus checks and extra child tax credit payments from the federal government also helped Miller cover necessary expenses for himself and his 8-year-old son, allowing him to save.

    But the plant cut back his hours more than a year ago, and the federal government stopped sending out expanded child tax credit payments at the end of last year. At the same time, many necessities have become more expensive, including Miller’s monthly rent and milk at the grocery store. Miller said he went from having extra money in his account to being worried about making ends meet, and he’s now about $700 behind on paying his electricity bills.

    “I honestly don’t have any savings. It’s gone,” Miller said. “If things keep getting worse, I don’t know what we’re going to do.”

    Miller isn’t alone. Many Americans piled up their savings during the pandemic after lawmakers passed rounds of stimulus measures to prop up the economy, and as households spent less on travel and other in-person events. But with many stimulus programs over, excess savings are quickly dwindling as inflation has spiked and stretched people’s budgets. And even though a strong labor market has led to fast wage growth, inflation has outpaced those gains.

  35. Chicago says:

    Chatter in what circles? Everything I am uncovering is thinking the market has it wrong. That said, money talks, bullshit runs a marathon.

    https://m.youtube.com/shorts/NcjmVLDzxao

    3b says:
    December 15, 2022 at 8:16 am
    Even after yesterday s Fed decision there is still chatter out there about a pivot/ pause. Such comments as he is bluffing, he is just jaw boning markets, he will be forced to cut rates, he won’t want to cause a recession, and on it goes. I believe he is serious, and with some fits and starts has been since the Jackson Hole meeting in August. Powell is far more concerned about inflation and his legacy then a recession.

  36. Chicago says:

    I don’t have to question the authenticity of the post, because it contains a spelling, syntax and/or grammatical error.

    Libturd says:
    December 15, 2022 at 10:25 am
    Chi Latte,

    Was looking back and saw this prescient post. Excellent call, when I was doubting the willingness of Powell.

  37. leftwing says:

    “…by the time the Fed officially announces a rate hike, that rate hike is old news and of no further consequence to financial market movement…”

    My p/l over most of the eight meetings this year begs to differ…. :)

    “What part of it isn’t true and why is this statement above not accurate?”

    Yesterday there was rare unanimity on what the Fed would do, over 90% probability of just 50bps. That is the actual amount, and post-announcement the market moved 1.25%, which daily move only occurs less than 10% of the time…

    In other words really dumb to post that especially today, since everyone yesterday agreed the rate move was set in stone yet the market response was still one of surprise…

  38. JCer says:

    Phoenix, we NEED to end the war in Ukraine. At this point it is a d!ck measuring contest between Putin and Biden, there are no “winners” only losers. The Ukrainians lost 100,000 soldiers and have only been able to beat back the Russians with billions in aid.

    The costs in soldiers and money are not sustainable, the Russians will not give up, they will not give Crimea back and will want to guarantee it’s fresh water access(that is likely what this war is about, Crimea and it’s stability……it is a significant part of Russia’s defenses) and at this point Donbas is probably non-negotiable.

    At the end of the day hundreds of thousands of kids will have died on both sides for no good reason, the Germans and Poles will freeze this winter and their economies will suffer. Inflation is crushing people globally….

  39. Phoenix says:

    Water bill woes- your govt doesn’t care, it spent your money on Ukraine.
    Electric bill woes- your govt doesn’t care, it spent your money on Ukraine.
    Medical costs- your govt doesn’t care, it spent your money on Ukraine.

    Americans love blowing things up for trillions of dollars-and giving your tax dollars out by the pallet- remember- once that money leaves the USA, you don’t know where it went.

    Our contractors love it so much they even built showers that electrocuted our servicemen for a profit.

  40. 3b says:

    Chgo: Just tooling around Market Watch, Market or Business Insider, forget which one. Various “experts “ quoted etc. One went so far as to say, the Feds comments at the press conference may have left the door open for rate cuts in 2023. Must be that new English, I think the guy is delusional.

  41. Phoenix says:

    Jcer,
    America wanted this war. It always has to have a boogeyman.

    Tom Cruise vs the Russian air force. You know, the same Russian air force that would be decimated in an hour vs NATO. The same Russia that was going to “never stop at Ukraine but take over all of Europe” and probably the Atlantic Ocean in their pea brains.

    Now the Chinese are the next enemy. The same place that was so much our friends that Greatest and Boomer suggested we use their children to assemble Iphones.
    Yes, we created the “enemy” and now we need to destroy them.

    If it doesn’t exist, although I have read rumblings, there is a movement around the world against the USA for starting all of this- and, as is the usual fashion, it won’t be those that initiated it, as those old goats will be six feet under. It will be the youth of today paying for the sins of their parents and grandparents.

    Don’t resist, stop resisting. The word of the Popo. Patriot missiles on your doorstep- sanction your country with a knee on the neck. NYC might wake up one day to something it thinks is a sunrise but it is 3am…

    And no, God isn’t going to do a damn thing about it. No matter how much you pray.

  42. BRT says:

    The real hoax is the concept of recycling at all. We need to eliminate disposable containers, let’s start with banning bottled water in anything under a 1 gallon container size.

    Glass, Aluminum, Paper. We did it better last century.

  43. Phoenix says:

    Many in America believe that if Russia gets 10 nuke hits here but is wiped off the map with 50 then that is a win.

    EEjits don’t realize that even King Murphy can’t spread enough salt to combat a nuclear winter.

  44. Phoenix says:

    You know who did it the best? Edward Bernays.
    He nailed it-and he is smiling about the bottled water thing.
    F-N sheep.

    The real hoax is the concept of recycling at all. We need to eliminate disposable containers, let’s start with banning bottled water in anything under a 1 gallon container size.

    Glass, Aluminum, Paper. We did it better last century.

  45. BRT says:

    The cult leader is selling shares, half of the cult now is told the cult leader is evil from their other cult. Things aren’t looking good for TSLA’s share price.

  46. BRT says:

    In 250 years, the USA will be looked upon the same way we look upon the British Empire.

  47. leftwing says:

    Pulled some of my Jan 23 SPY hedges off chi…we have a messy few days potentially through even Tues next week as tomorrow’s option expiry is I think the largest ever…going to have a lot of big guys with sharp elbows all jostling for bar space at the same time…

    I need to look at my hedging over this year but pretty strong feeling it was a net contributor, happily especially given the market is at or possibly higher than where I put many on I believe…

    I’ll get hard numbers as part of the EOY writeup guys in my trading group do but notwithstanding all the academic studies I think it worked for me for a few reasons…

    Study strategies are rote, and given the market and where one stands in it at any particular time the desire/need to hedge varies (ie, one shouldn’t just do it mechanically)…also given the strength of my underlying position (at expiry I’m exposed to literally no delta risk down to around 310) I have the luxury of taking a ton of singles since I don’t have the need to hold the hedge, eg. yesterday I was able to cash out of a five wide spread at 1.50 profit (about half of max profit) and the Jan 23s I just dumped were six wide and likewise exited at 1.50 (just shy of half max).

    I also sense that the actual hedge positions I take help, slightly OTM with tighter spread widths means higher probability of positive occurrence and less loss if the market continues to run up (ie, easier management).

    I’ll separate them from the rest of my trade log for my own benefit to try to understand and refine better but by all accounts (so far lol) seems to have worked well, in a way quite different than I originally expected.

  48. BRT says:

    What I am amazed by was 15 years ago, Chipotle came up with the idea to nuke the customer on bottled water for $2 a bottle. I mean, now it’s standard practice and up to $3 in some places. When people started asking for cups because by law, water must be provided for free, they started to hand you the most insulting shot glass sized plastic cup for you to fill your water up at the fountain. That was amusing.

  49. Ex says:

    Having the greatest army in the world means nothing if you let scum like Putin push around sovereign nations. Arming Ukraine is a great way to flip that middle finger at Putin. POP POP

  50. Ex says:

    Ol Dood Pt 1.
    Sturgill Simpson

    One and all had heard the stories and our witness had been sworn
    ‘Bout a man born in Hardburly back in June of ’29
    Must have got that Martin Meylin muzzle day he was born
    Things he could do with that rifle
    Blow the balls off a bat, reload, and shoot it one more time
    Had a monster of a mule, was a mighty fine steed
    Sham and Sam, a tomahawk and that flintlock’s all he need
    Finding food and finding trouble and always taking heed
    Any man that crossed him was surely gonna bleed
    And he’d stretch you up and burn you for callin’ him half-breed
    Left the varnish off his words, feared no beast nor man
    Didn’t want to end up in his debt ’cause it’d damn sure get paid
    He was harder than the nails hammerеd Jesus’ hands
    He was the onе they called Dood
    Son of a mountain miner and a Shawnee maiden
    Wore a size 17 ring, had hands like a bear
    And if he got ’em on ya, he’s takin’ that top hair
    His grandfather taught him how to hunt, how to live off the land
    Taught him how to take a scalp when you kill a man
    He was a deadly warrin’ daddy with a gun gleam in his eyes
    ‘Til he found him a good woman, calm down the rage
    He built a home from the land with the hands the Good Lord gave him
    Then old Dood got his own food
    Had no need for the scrip that old coal company paid
    Left the varnish off his words, feared no beast nor man
    And if either came upon him they’d damn sure get slain
    He was harder than the nails hammered Jesus’ hands
    He was the one they called Dood
    Son of a mountain miner and a Shawnee maiden
    Son of a mountain miner and a Shawnee maiden

  51. Libturd says:

    3b,

    No rate cuts, IMO, unless the Spring recession causes a massive 2007/8 market decline (which I’m not seeing). Nice to see spending falling off finally. How will economy handle this large drop in personal spending when Americans typically spend hand over foot? Still expect this Spring to be the bottom as I have said since late last year. Keep your powder dry.

  52. Libturd says:

    Market’s pretty ugly today. What gives? Tax loss harvesting?

  53. leftwing says:

    “CD rates down, let’s see if that sticks through the day, should have locked those ladders pre-meeting. Looks like down .1 to .15 from Monday/Tuesday.”

    Can’t believe I’m offering this up, but since down 10bps is only a 100 buck differential on even a $100k CD let’s see if an alternative would interest you…

    If so, throw me a hypothetical amount for a ladder step, the expiry and rate on that CD, a high quality larger cap stock you would like to own but not right now given where the market is, and a price decline at which you would start to buy that stock (or even the SPY).

    I’ll see what I can do.

  54. 1987 Condo says:

    Ban plastic water bottles. Put it in aluminum if necessary. I believe aluminum is far more “recyclable” than plastic.

  55. Bystander says:

    “So what exactly do the founders do? Vacation?”

    Exactly grim. I do not have pre-sales experience but I do alot of demos in front of execs. He said “Oh Brian really someone who can get in front of a bunch of executives and discuss all aspects of their regulatory needs and really sell them on our software”

    My thought was “Then what the f*ck is Brian doing? Talking about the kids and family to his WS buddies, signing the contract and reaping the commission while pre-sales does all the work?”

    Company was completely lost. Looking for a cheap resource to do it all for the execs

  56. Libturd says:

    It’s early, but we could be looking at a white Xmas. Well, if that term has not been banned.

    There’s a nice coastal hugger on the Euro, but it’s quite early.

  57. chicagofinance says:

    left: seeing some odd high quality corporate paper trading at T+100 for July23’s….. do you have any indication that people are barfing stuff up? I am staring at it thinking WTF? I can’t disclose here…..

    leftwing says:
    December 15, 2022 at 11:20 am
    “CD rates down, let’s see if that sticks through the day, should have locked those ladders pre-meeting. Looks like down .1 to .15 from Monday/Tuesday.”

    Can’t believe I’m offering this up, but since down 10bps is only a 100 buck differential on even a $100k CD let’s see if an alternative would interest you…

    If so, throw me a hypothetical amount for a ladder step, the expiry and rate on that CD, a high quality larger cap stock you would like to own but not right now given where the market is, and a price decline at which you would start to buy that stock (or even the SPY).

    I’ll see what I can do.

  58. chicagofinance says:

    Fuck….. it’s gone….. queue the South Park thing……

  59. leftwing says:

    “Even after yesterday s Fed decision there is still chatter out there about a pivot/ pause. Such comments as he is bluffing…”

    No debate, no opinion, just fact. The market does not believe him.

    ByS, on the startup yeah you were right to ask for equity. In any type of scenario like that though one is going to wear multiple hats, not get paid relatively well in cash, and look for LT comp through the equity…IIRC not what you are looking for…asking a venture backed startup for a single lane of responsibility and market rate comp for it, eh…..

  60. leftwing says:

    OR, re: the Paterson garbage contract…not sure what their point is….the article seems to me to be a case study in municipal incompetence.

    Five years ago they signed a five year contract for 4.5m annually. They are looking at a new contract that with escalators that ends up at 11.2m five years hence.

    That’s an annual rate of cost increase of 9.5% annually over ten years…high, but not off the charts, especially with recent unskilled labor wage escalation and presumably rapidly escalating tipping fees…the clickbait ‘doubling’ of the contract in the headline is misleading…

    Re: the municipality, they apparently have painted themselves into a corner…seems they went to a half year extension earlier this year at 8.4m, and now they are two weeks before expiration on an activity that is not optional and the provider is looking at a baseline of 9.1m…

    Hey, city council people, welcome to the real world…you dicked around for a year against hard deadlines on a mandatory service in June 30, are still doing it into year end, and doing it over an 8.6m/9.1m bid/ask spread…

    Who the fuck do you think is going to come in now, hell even pick up the phone in the next two weeks let alone pull together an actual proposal and why the hell would you even try for a 500k delta? Idiots. Wish I could short NJ municipalities.

  61. Fabius Maximus says:

    Just when you think you have seen everything from Donnie.

    Hottest Holiday gift for the Wingnut in your life. I assume Gary will be first in line to buy the greatness.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1603419684329619458

  62. Ex says:

    11:07 250 years from now only Thunderdome will exist.

  63. No One says:

    For those interested in learning how to eat a dick, here’s an instructive video from an asian chick.
    https://g.co/kgs/8vjhNC

  64. 3b says:

    Left: The market does not believe him, and that is bad in my view, and may prolong the whole process. As for the chatter, just read another article where the author called Powells comments very yesterday “ a tad more hawkish”.

  65. No One says:

    On Russia/Ukraine, the US has to help, otherwise it encourages more land grabs of allies. Also shows how alliances with weapons are far more useful than the UN in maintaining some sort of rules. But I’m not emotionally invested in Ukraine like the libs who think they are finally punishing the Russians for stealing queen Hillary’s crown.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Spreads are widening….. there is a spanner in the works…..

  67. chicagofinance says:

    Colts Neck recycle program is changing as of 1/1/23

    Every house was issued a standard sized dumpster. No more variation. Everything goes into the dumpster or forget it. Once every 2 weeks a truck will run its route with a driver only, and the rest is automated. Identical to the trash haul. Prior was a three person team and guidelines about 2 containers, but there was a large amount of leeway, and certainly erred on the side of taking everything, especially after major holidays. As long as it was the approved type of stuff, they really didn’t care how much you put out. No more. Based on the above posts, I can understand why….

  68. chicagofinance says:

    looks like someone is dumping out so they can ski in Aspen and return 1/3/23….

    Damn I wish the market was about 10-15% lower from here, because I would be backing up the truck….

  69. leftwing says:

    Chi, rest of hedges off…SPY down 16 over two days since before the Fed announcement…I covered over 5 of those points. With the delta of my long positions at 0.38 my basic SPY setup is now down less than a buck with the SPY off 16.

    Still have my META 120 hedge and I have that AAPL 145 covered short as part of the oil/AAPL pairs trade put on we discussed a couple weeks ago or so…BRT, that pairs trade working nicely, both sides up, long oil and short AAPL…you have any short porn to share?

    Total portfolio off less than 0.5% today with SPY off 2.8% and major holdings including GOOG (-4.8%) and META (-5.7%).

    GL boys (and any girls).

  70. leftwing says:

    “Left: The market does not believe him, and that is bad in my view, and may prolong the whole process.”

    I stopped having a view of whether these things were ‘good’ or ‘bad’ a long time ago, around the time all three branches of government at many levels showed me they didn’t give a shit…if they don’t why should I?

    My only interest in what the market believes and what the ‘experts’ think is whether I can trade profitably the variance between my outlook and their views when they get off-base. So far, so good.

  71. leftwing says:

    “Market’s pretty ugly today. What gives? Tax loss harvesting?”

    Overnight digestion of Fed day yesterday amplified by shitty retail numbers this morning with a major impending opex tomorrow while the index flirts with a key support level after convincingly breaking its 200 day SMA…basically in the ring with a young Tyson rn….nowhere to hide.

    Plus, as we all have been discussing here for better than a month, WS strategists are just now picking up their 2023 estimates are heavy and taking them down one by one.

    Other than that, shit’s great. Keep that powder dry…

  72. leftwing says:

    If we do get a good blowoff by Monday/Tues all else being equal I would hop in for what I would expect to be a major Santa rally after that.

  73. leftwing says:

    Last post, too many in a row, but shout out to Grim on the seasonal releases…some nice looking items in there, like them all especially the BIB, single malt.

    but hey, the shipping link kind of sends you to a table reservation dead end?

  74. Mike S says:

    Why go for a CD instead of a treasury (26 month, 2, year, 3 year, etc) – don’t have to pay NJ state tax… i’ve been taking all my normal stock market investment money over the last few months and getting my guaranteed 4%+ return and lower taxes than a CD..

    Still have a ton of dry powder waiting for a real sell off, or a nice cheap house to come on the market…

  75. JCer says:

    No one, Russia-Ukraine is our fault, policy wonks like John Mearsheimer warned us about this in 2014. The orange revolution happened and we backed the pro EU faction, a pro-EU faction that wanted the Russians out of Sevastapol….the Russians were never going to let that happen as effectively that is required to defend Russia’s underbelly and the Volgograd gap.

    Then instead of trying to have good relations with the Russians, Zelensky cuts off the water to Crimea and makes it clear he intends to get it “back”, he also violated the terms of the Minsk agreements and was discriminating against Russian speakers. The concessions the Ukrainians could have averted war by making a few concessions, heck I think that was Putin’s plan originally which would explain the piss poor invasion attempt in the beginning, it was a show of force to get concessions. If the Russians could have gotten Ukraine to renounce her claims on Crimea, restore water, declare neutrality(no NATO presence in Ukraine), protections for Russian speakers, and a Semi-Autonomous status for the break away regions(Donbas and Luhansk) there wouldn’t have been a war.

    Now because of the cost in men politically Putin needs to keep the territory he captured, if he gives it back it looks like a defeat and for the US we have invested a hundred billion so we cannot let Putin take the territory. Basically this will drag on unless someone escalates(hopefully not because nuclear war is a bad thing).

    In my mind the Ukrainians will eventually lose because they will not be able to sustain battle as long as the Russians, who have shifted strategy yet again and will retreat and fight limited engagements while shelling and cutting off all utilities… basically they are going to attempt to misery the Ukrainians to surrender. Ukraine attacking Russia is dangerous idea as it significant increases the risk of Nuclear war, Ukrainians fighting a NATO led battle with NATO equipment on Russian soil sure as heck looks like a NATO invasion of Russia which certainly could have some unpleasant consequences.

    Now as for America, we are really dumb because China is the threat, the Russians were just happy to access to western fast food and to not be living in the Soviet Union anymore, besides the Nukes they couldn’t muster a conventional force to stop a US led invasion and furthermore their natural enemy is China and we have made them into allies. The Russians were happy to sell us commodities and buy western goods, China has the territorial goals and a stated desire to crush the US hegemony in Asia, Russia and the west aren’t competing but rather had a somewhat symbiotic economic relationship. Where the Chinese want to compete directly and eventually put our companies out of business.

  76. Ex says:

    When it comes to international relations, 2022 has been an exceptionally dangerous year. During the first two months, Russia massed thousands of troops along Ukraine’s borders. At the end of the second one, Moscow sent them marching into Ukraine. China, meanwhile, has grown increasingly belligerent toward Washington, particularly over Taiwan. After U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August, Beijing carried out a furious set of military exercises designed to show how it would blockade and attack the island. Washington, in turn, has explored how it can more quickly arm and support the Taiwanese government.

    The United States

  77. chicagofinance says:

    Depends on location of money (tax may be exempt or secondary)….

    Mike S says:
    December 15, 2022 at 3:18 pm
    Why go for a CD instead of a treasury (26 month, 2, year, 3 year, etc) – don’t have to pay NJ state tax… i’ve been taking all my normal stock market investment money over the last few months and getting my guaranteed 4%+ return and lower taxes than a CD..

    Still have a ton of dry powder waiting for a real sell off, or a nice cheap house to come on the market…

  78. chicagofinance says:

    The last thing I can afford to do to my family is be glued to screens between next Thursday and year-end.

    leftwing says:
    December 15, 2022 at 2:19 pm
    If we do get a good blowoff by Monday/Tues all else being equal I would hop in for what I would expect to be a major Santa rally after that.

  79. chicagofinance says:

    Roll them? You think were stay here or further breach?

    Also, the move in NFLX was kind of shocking to me….. opened at 330 on Tuesday and touched 287 today….. that is some ride on nothing…. easy come / easy go….

    leftwing says:
    December 15, 2022 at 1:50 pm
    Chi, rest of hedges off…SPY down 16 over two days since before the Fed announcement…I covered over 5 of those points. With the delta of my long positions at 0.38 my basic SPY setup is now down less than a buck with the SPY off 16.

  80. No One says:

    Did nobody mention the opportunity to invest in Donald Trump action hero NFTs?
    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/12/7-great-things-about-donald-trumps-dumb-nft-announcement.html
    Even Cathie might perform better than these will.
    This may be the dumbest thing I saw today.

  81. No One says:

    What a fool Trump is
    “… in a video hawking NFTs. It starts, “Hello, everyone, this is Donald Trump, hopefully your favorite president of all time. Better than Lincoln, better than Washington.”

    George Washington is a top tier figure in human history, compared to which Donald Trump is a vain little shitstain nonentity. Dunning-Kreuger effect in action.

  82. Ex says:

    FabMax posted that one earlier.
    Lame. As. Fuuuuuuck.
    But then what did anyone expect?

  83. Ex says:

    Trump will be lucky if history doesn’t savage the motherf-cker

  84. Hughesrep says:

    Brokemon Cards.

  85. Juice Box says:

    Jcer -re ” In my mind the Ukrainians will eventually lose because they will not be able to sustain battle as long as the Russians.”

    As long as we keep suppling they will fight. As I have mentioned the tens of billions we have passed in legislation is a decade out in spending for assistance.

    Right now the Ukrainians are driving to the battle every day in mostly civilian cars and trucks. Andriana Arekhta a woman solider fighting on the front lines since 2014 has been campaigning for more armored vehicles. She was recently here in the US meeting with our Congress to ask for more armored transport. Well she was just blow up by a land mine in a civilian vehicle headed to the front, she survived but is badly injured.

    https://nypost.com/2022/12/05/ukrainian-mom-turned-soldier-who-asked-us-for-help-critical-after-landmine-blast/

    Just think back to what our boys faced in Iraq and Afghanistan, landmines everywhere. We developed the MRAP to survive. Mines are the biggest issue preventing pushing forward and regain any lost ground as the Russians mined everything.

    Ukrainian force projection is just over 50 miles using our HIMARS but most activity is happening within in the range of artillery 25 miles range but less distance to be effective. The Ukrainian military commander recently said he needs 300 western tanks, 1,000 armored vehicles and a 500 additional howitzer artillery pieces + ammo to kick the Russians out of Ukraine. The Russians are dug in they have had a long time to dig in, almost 9 years now, there is supposedly 100,000 square miles of land mined by the Russians now, so it will be slow going to gain more ground even with more tanks and artillery.

    It’s too bad we left allot of equipment like MRAPs in Afghanistan. There were supposedly 70 MRAPs left in Kabul alone along with lots of armored up trucks and Humvees. Does not sound like allot but every bit would help…

  86. Juice Box says:

    One thing to mention, air war….Ukraine can only accomplish about 40 sorties a day to support ground troops. It needs to be in the hundreds, nothing like dropping 500 lb laser guided bombs on an enemy position.

    I suspect our smart folks are coming up a way to counter the Russian R-77-1 long-range anti-aircraft missile, and the R-37 very long-range anti-aircraft missile. The Russians fighter jets don’t have to cross the war zone or border to fire those missiles. If we can defeat those (jamming) then well who knows what can happen to support with JDAM smart bombs any ground troop push.

    There is talk of JDAM now. I am sure our smart engineers can come up with a way to add some jamming and better radar to the Ukrainian jets.

    https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/what-jdam-smart-bombs-could-do-for-ukraine

  87. leftwing says:

    “The last thing I can afford to do to my family is be glued to screens between next Thursday and year-end.”

    Haha, sat out the holidays in 2018 as I was at my sister’s with the rest of the family…not again, way too much opportunity cost lol.

    On rolling, not now, at 405 they made a ton of sense, last few weeks I hit them and the VIX. Don’t want to turn trade winning trades into losers. Plus tomorrow is a total tossup – although most of opex is futes so they should be morning settlement. Let’s wait for some clarity off this 390ish level. Do feel if we pass another tougher day everyone will bid this up into year end. We slump to 350 I’ll be off 10 points, and then starting to back up the truck.

  88. Juice Box says:

    Same as it always. But still funny.

    Elon’s people now suspending loads of folks…

    Why you might ask? It’s not the rules it has always been well personal preference.

    I applaud Zuck he is doing an awesome job of steering clear. He must have been meeting with Bill Gates…

  89. Fabius Maximus says:

    File this under #word, #micdrop, #thereareafewinherethatownthis

    Heather Cox Richardson December 15, 2022 (Thursday)
    Yesterday, former president Trump took to his Truth Social media platform to announce that he would be making “a MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT” today. Since he recently threw his hat in the ring for president in 2024, there was a great deal of speculation about what political move this would be.
    When it came today, it turned out that his announcement was for digital trading cards with images of him as a superhero…available for $99 apiece. Radio personality John Melendez promptly called them “Broke’mon cards.”
    Ron Filipkowski, a former federal prosecutor and Republican who now monitors right-wing extremism, tweeted: “All I can say is that those of us who have lost friends, fought with relatives, resigned positions, been called traitor, left our party, all because we saw very clearly what a con-man, huckster and fraud this man is, have never felt more vindicated.”
    The reduction of the former president to a cartoon grifter seems likely to have political repercussions. Right-wing media personality Baked Alaska, who is facing six months in jail after pleading guilty to parading, demonstrating or picketing inside a Capitol building for his participation in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, tweeted: “i can’t believe i’m going to jail for an nft salesman,” with a sad face emoji.
    Meanwhile, three members of the “Wolverine Watchmen” who hatched a plot to kill police and elected officials and to kidnap Governor of Michigan Gretchen Whitmer in summer 2020 as Trump urged his supporters to “LIBERATE” the state from her coronavirus restrictions were sentenced today to a minimum of 7 to 12 years in prison. Kara Berg of The Detroit News recorded their reactions: “I had a lapse in judgment,” said one; “I sincerely regret ever allowing myself to have any affiliation with people who had those kinds of ideas,” said another; “I was caught up highly in the moment,” said a third. Michigan attorney general Dana Nessel noted that, “appropriate consequences for illegal acts are necessary to deter criminal behavior.”
    Trump’s political star is fading, leaving the Republican Party without plan or policy: recall that in 2020, for the first time in its history, the party didn’t write a political platform. Instead, it said that if it had written a platform, it “would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration.” Going forward, they simply resolved “[t]hat the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.”
    Now the former president is increasingly toxic. As the party tries to find someone to blame for its poor 2022 showing, some seem to have concluded the party hasn’t been extremist enough. Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel, who remade the party to serve Trump, is now in a fight to keep her position, challenged by a woman who has backed election challenges and worked directly as Trump’s lawyer, rather than coming up from within the party.
    The lawmakers Trump helped to usher into Congress are also doubling down on their extremism. In 2022 the Republicans just barely won control of the House—and that with the help of gerrymandered districts—leaving them very little room to argue with each other.
    But while leadership in the Senate is determined by the party in power alone, the speakership of the House is voted on by the whole House. This means that with such a small majority, current House minority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who intends to become House speaker, can lose only a few votes and yet win.
    The far-right wing of his conference, some of whom were prominent in the newly released texts to and from Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows as they tried to keep Trump in power despite the will of the voters, have said they will not back McCarthy. He appears to have promised them plum committee assignments, investigations, and even impeachments, but so far, they aren’t budging.
    Today, McCarthy put off the choosing of committee leadership slots until after the January 3 election for speaker, which also means the Republican membership of the committees is unclear (in contrast, the Democrats will have made their decisions by next week). This enables McCarthy to use seats as leverage—Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who was stripped of her committee assignments in this Congress, has already said she expects a prime spot on the Committee on Oversight and Reform—but it also means that the House cannot organize to start the upcoming session. It can’t even hire staff.
    Republicans who style themselves the “governing wing” of the party are quietly talking about stripping their more extreme members from committees. “From a governing perspective, it’s important that Republicans don’t start January 3 by going face down and not having some clarity as to what we’re going to be able to accomplish,” Representative Steve Womack (R-AR) told Annie Grayer and Melanie Zanona of CNN. “We need to be able to hit the ground running and demonstrate to the American people that the trust and confidence they’ve given to us by giving us a majority, albeit slim, was a good decision.”
    Indeed. And first on that list is keeping the government funded. Yesterday, the House approved a stopgap funding measure to keep the government operating another week while Congress prepares an omnibus bill to fund — until the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2023. The omnibus bill must be bipartisan to get through the Senate, but House Republican leaders urged Republican members to vote against the short-term measure, saying it was an “attempt to buy additional time for a massive lame-duck spending bill in which House Republicans have had no seat at the negotiating table.” Nine Republicans voted for it nonetheless, but at the very least, it seems that negotiations next year will be difficult.
    Meanwhile, over at the White House, President Joe Biden has spent the last three days hosting the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. Both Russia and China have invested heavily in Africa in the past, and Biden, who is trying to weaken Chinese and Russian power around the globe, announced that the U.S. is committed “to expanding and deepening our partnership with African countries, institutions, and people.” This week he announced not only that he backs the African Union’s membership in the G-20, the intergovernmental forum of leading economies, but that the U.S. will invest at least $55 billion in the continent over the next three years. The U.S. hopes to work with African nations on issues of security, health, food security—Somalia is facing drought conditions that will affect food supplies, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine has cut down fertilizer shipments to Africa more generally—climate change, corruption, and so on.
    Biden announced that he and Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as Dr. Jill Biden, Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff, and several members of the Cabinet, will travel to the African continent in 2023 to demonstrate the U.S. commitment to African countries and citizens.
    But while the White House this week was all about geopolitics and representation, the person who handles the president’s personal Twitter account apparently couldn’t resist poking a little fun at Trump’s news. “I had some MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENTS the last couple of weeks, too…” the account read:
    “Inflation’s easing
    I just signed the Respect for Marriage Act
    We brought Brittney Griner home
    Gas prices are lower than a year ago
    10,000 new high-paying jobs in Arizona”
    If the Democrats are trying to portray themselves as the competent party, the Republicans seem to be trying to give them a leg up.

  90. Fabius Maximus says:

    Elon’s people now suspending loads of folks…

    Why the Jet Guy?
    https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1603273937000898560

  91. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Someone gave the Feds the source code and to the press as well.”

    Word is that Elon fired the Twitter staff with admin access to the Git Repositories.
    That’s going to be fun to watch them try to reverse that bus!

  92. Ex says:

    Social Distortion fans out there? SoCal Punk legend,
    Plays LA over break.

  93. Boomer Remover says:

    As someone who tries to balance short term liquidity with returns on my cash, I’m just about done with the t-bill ladders. The spread between hi yield savings rates and short term t-bill rates is narrowing.

    ~3% Marcus vs 3.7% 4-week at this juncture.

    The market doesn’t believe the fed.

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