Flipper profits falling fast

From CNBC:

Home flipping profits drop at the fastest pace in over a decade

As the housing market cools quickly, house flippers are finding it harder to make fast profits.

In the third quarter, gross flipping profit, which is the difference between the median purchase price paid by investors and the median resale price, dropped to $62,000, according to ATTOM, a real estate data provider. That’s down 18.4% from the second quarter and down 11.4% year-over-year. It represents the smallest profit since the end of 2019 and the fastest quarterly drop since 2009.

With that drop in gross profits, the return on investment fell to 25% from 30% in the previous quarter. Not bad, but not as good. Still ATTOM notes it’s not the size of the profits, but how quickly they’re falling. 

With profits shrinking and higher mortgage rates hurting affordability for potential buyers, the share of home sales that were flips fell as well. Roughly 7.5% were flips in the third quarter, still historically high, but down from 8.2% in the second quarter. Flips, defined as homes bought and sold in a 12-month period, made up a 5.9% share of all home sales in the third quarter of 2021.

Home prices are weakening quickly, while renovation costs remain high. 

“It’s apparent that fix-and-flip investors aren’t immune to the shifting conditions in the housing market,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM, in a release. “With demand from buyers weakening, prices trending down over the past few months, and financing rates significantly higher than they were at the beginning of the year, flippers face a much more difficult environment today, and probably will in 2023 as well.”

This entry was posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

130 Responses to Flipper profits falling fast

  1. dentss dunnigan says:

    northeaster rolling in fastt

  2. grim says:

    If so, throw me a hypothetical amount for a ladder step, the expiry and rate on that CD, a high quality larger cap stock you would like to own but not right now given where the market is, and a price decline at which you would start to buy that stock (or even the SPY).

    Low risk yield, the kids’ money. Decent enough chunk that tenths matter in the long run. SPY – 350ish Goal is to pay the kids college, grad school, and let ’em buy a house cash, so like a 25y horizon. Hard work to get it where it is, so now I’m just far too conservative. 7%ish gets me to where I want to be. I know given all that, I should just park it in an index and let ‘er ride.

  3. grim says:

    Binance should do themselves a favor and not let that guy talk in public anymore.

  4. 1987 Condo says:

    CZ: everything is done perfectly correct, except that one question he really doesn’t answer…

  5. Hold my beer says:

    Anyone adding 45s NFTs to their portfolio?

  6. grim says:

    Totally not going to backfire.

    When’s the Atlantic City Casino collection coming out?

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Are there any brick and mortar banks in Northern Jersey area offering 1 yr. CDs worth considering?

  8. grim says:

    I can’t imagine any brick and mortar bank offering anything worth considering, for anything.

  9. Hughesrep says:


    Just the Saudi’s

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Haven Savings Bank is offering a 1 yr., 3.92% CD. I prefer to sit and talk to a rep other than doing everything online, a bit old school. It’s the way things used to be. You can ask questions, get responses at least. Some of my accounts are online, some I’d rather handle in person.

  11. Hold my beer says:


    I think TD has brick in mortar in your area. Also the big brokerages places like vanguard and fiesleity have reps you can talk to over the phone.

  12. Fast Eddie says:


    TD is everywhere but is not offering any CDs to consider. I’ll check out Vanguard and Fidelity and see what they have.

  13. Hold my beer says:


    I wonder how many people put their life savings or borrowed against their house or retirement fund to buy NFTs. I’ve seen some cringey YouTube videos over a year ago of NFT buyers valuing potential purchases and putting values on their holdings.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    NFTs: It’s the same as people buying precious metals and then wondering why they actually lost money 10 years later. Coin and “rare” currency holdings are like buying a new car. The moment you purchase, you’ve already lost 30%. And that’s if you’re lucky.

  15. Jim says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 16, 2022 at 7:50 am
    Are there any brick and mortar banks in Northern Jersey area offering 1 yr. CDs worth considering?

    Valley National Bank in NJ is offering a 4.5 percent for 13 months. Rates have dropped, just a temporary glitch.


  16. Fast Eddie says:

    Thank you, Jim.

  17. 1987 Condo says:

    I did just sign up for the Valley 4.5% CD. That is my checking account so it was pretty easy.

    I use Fidelity for brokered CDs but I avoid callable CDs.

  18. Juice Box says:

    Crypto edgelords all in an uproar on Social Media.

    Auditor Mazars Group dropped Binance and all other crypto audits this morning.

    Had to be a cash cow for them in billing, to do this their lawyers must have smelled something, like I dunno the DOJ and SDNY?


  19. Walking says:

    I opened a valley account online this weekend at 4.5. They linked directly to my small Bergen county bank to withdraw the funds. Both banks must use the same verify system as it asked for my password and login info . I opened it on a Saturday night

  20. grim says:

    Not surprising, who really wants to be Arthur Anderson 2.0?

    I’m sure there was enough internal doubt on the reliability, accuracy, and use of their data that called into question whether or not the revenue was worth not only the reputational risk, but potential downstream liability. I wouldn’t read any kind of malfeasance into this, but I bet they marched the sales guy in to the c suite and questioned him on this project, then looked over to the risk team, who just shrugged their shoulders.

  21. Walking says:

    Bogota bank had some nice 2 year rates for walk in. Closest bank to us fast is down in Hackensack area. Bogota bank did not require a checking account be open to get the rate.

  22. FridayDryingOut says:



    Binance’s accounting firm – Mazaar just stopped vouching for its assets. Enjoy the rollercoaster. https://www.npr.org/2022/12/16/1143086648/binance-cz-ftx-crypto-bankruptcy-fallout-alameda-bitcoin

    Got to see Netflix’s – Harry & Meghan. Rupert Murdoch owns 3 out of the 7 papers that got front page real estate that needs to be filled everyday and they go after the royals; which in turn they sell each other out, because if they are after you they are not after me, plus add the pecking birth and power order.

    Harry & Meghan did not want to play the game so they got beaten until submission, but they fled instead, made it to Vancouver Island, but no moeny and covid closing in….. they get saved …. by Madea….

    In short, the british royals threw them out. But the Black American entertaintment aristocracy -(Oprah, Beyonce, etc) made them their own. Now they need to make lots of money to live that expensive Cali beachfront lifestyle… Except if something happens to Charles, William and kids.. and….The king is Dead…Long live the King…

    The whole Ukraine thing is just this (NSFW) https://youtu.be/32iCWzpDpKs

  23. Juice Box says:

    BTW folks all this talk about a Fed Pivot next year. The Fed will be forced to pivot by year three. They will try to keep rates high next year but after that?

    It’s not just the housing market that has been addicted to low rates for the last 14 years. Congress has been borrowing immense sums at low rates for all these years too.
    The Net Interest Expense on the 31 Trillion in US debt this year was $475 billion in interest payments. As that debt rolls over the interest payments increase with higher rates. The maturity structure of debt matters. Almost $7 trillion worth of debt will need to be refinanced next year at higher rates so approximate $100 Billion increase in interest payments next year, and that will only increase as the interest rates remain high. Most of the current debt will mature within the next three years. It’s won’t be possible to keep rates high long term as we cannot afford the interest payments. If the Fed keeps rates high for the next 3 years or more, we could be spending perhaps close to 1 trillion a year in net interest payments.

  24. 1987 Condo says:

    Politically, Powell has 2023 to do what he needs to do to crush inflation. If he needs to motivate the economy he can start easing rates in 2024 as we enter the election year.

  25. Juice Box says:

    Binance CEO was asked about a potential claw back on the 2 Billion recently transferred from FTX to buy out their position. That I assume was real cash stolen from customers, a fraudulent conveyance.

    CZ the CEO answered that their lawyers will handle it. Lol they are screwed.. The entire crypto market is red this morning.

    All I want for Christmas may be coming true.

  26. grim says:

    Mr Moneypants or whatever the f*ck his name is railed FTX for buying back that $2b stake that Binance held.

    So really, if SBF used customer funds to buy that stake- which at this point is nearly certain, why the hell wouldn’t that be subject to the clawback?

    That Binance idiot started mumbling about marking coins to current market and got a wicked backhand smackdown for even remotely insinuating that a markdown would be acceptable if a clawback actually happened. This dialog specifically was what prompted my 6:46am comment above.

  27. Juice Box says:

    lol – Kevin O’Leary and the CZ battle continues..

    From CNBC this morning.


  28. leftwing says:

    Grim, 529s?

    If so, what investment latitude do you have?

  29. 1987 Condo says:

    I liked when CZ said that the reason they cant get auditors was because the big 4 only understood banking’s fractional reserve policy and not the fact that crypto reserves are held 1:1 or some baloney like that, lol.

  30. Juice Box says:

    S&P Global Manufacturing PMI drops to 46.2 in December vs. 47.7 expected
    “Manufacturers registered one of the sharpest declines in new orders since the 2008-9 financial crisis during December, as customer spending waned,”

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc is planning to cut thousands of employees to navigate a difficult economic environment, a source familiar with the matter said.


  32. leftwing says:

    “…called into question whether or not the revenue was worth not only the reputational risk, but potential downstream liability. I wouldn’t read any kind of malfeasance into this…”

    Re: accounting firm dropping crypto. exactly. Unless there was actual malfeasance at the accountants they performed according to standards, but that doesn’t necessarily matter…comes down to reputation, you can’t be one of four firms pitching new business and having the other three reminding clients that you were the ‘crypto blowup’ firm and ‘do you really want to be associated with that’ especially in frontof any regulatory agency. New business death knell by association….

  33. leftwing says:

    “If the Fed keeps rates high for the next 3 years or more, [US Treasury] could be spending perhaps close to 1 trillion a year in net interest payments.”

    Chickens, meet roost.

    Not like this likelihood wasn’t forecast by most economists for a couple decades as the Federal deficit was exploding…

  34. Ex says:

    Hatred for Russia has nothing to do with Hillary btw (dumbest comment noOne has uttered yet)

  35. Ex says:

    Long viewed as healthier than other sweet treats, some kinds of dark chocolate contain potentially dangerous amounts of heavy metals, according to research released on Thursday by Consumer Reports.

    Scientists at the nonprofit advocacy organization recently measured the amount of heavy metals in 28 popular brands of dark chocolate bars and found cadmium and lead in all of them. For 23 of the bars, consuming just an ounce a day would put an adult over a level for at least one of the metals that could be harmful, CR said. Five of the bars were above those levels for both cadmium and lead.

    Long-term exposure to even small amounts of heavy metals can lead to a slew of health issues, including developmental problems and brain development in young children, experts say.

  36. Juice Box says:

    I once was a content mod on a bulletin board, never again after that experience as I quickly learned you cannot moderate crazy.

    Elon has taken on the role of content mod, it is going to make him crazy for sure.

    His exchange yesterday on an audio call with journalists on Twitter Spaces, sounds like his is losing it..


  37. Ex says:

    Conservative donors poured tens of millions of dollars of anonymous “dark money” into groups supporting Republican lawmakers in a supreme court case that could upend American election law.

    The donors backed several groups that have filed supreme court amicus briefs in support of North Carolina legislators in Moore v Harper, according to a recent analysis. They are pushing for a ruling that would take ultimate decisions about voting rights and congressional gerrymandering away from state courts and hand those powers to state legislatures, of which Republicans now control the majority.

  38. Ex says:

    Eight conservative groups that submitted amicus briefs in the supreme court case have received close to $90m from dark money donors since 2016, according to Accountable.US, a liberal leaning watchdog group that tracks government corruption.

  39. leftwing says:

    Re: O’Leary vs. CZ…

    O’Leary is full of shit and thrashing around for a life preserver, piece of wood, anything in the middle of the Atlantic as the Titanic dips beneath the surface.

    If he weren’t a major CNBC contributor no network would let this garbage pass through producers nearly unquestioned.

    Total case of deflection…almost laughable for the balls it takes to make…so the problem is not that you handed an incompetent, inexperienced 20-something your money with no diligence (while you were a paid spokesman for him btw) and he demonstrably stole it…the ‘problem’ is that some competitor received a payment from said incompetent as he thrashed about trying to keep that fraud scheme afloat…right. Nice attempt at sleight of hand.

    O’Leary is in total self preservation mode…he saw what happened to the pony tails (Najarians) on CNBC in nearly the exact same circumstance last year in an earlier exchange collapse…CNBC profiles and appearances provides the veneer of credibility and a megaphone for all these guests asset management and advisory businesses where their real money is made…Otherwise they are just one of tens of thousands of RIAs barking for money…Najarians were banned from the network and are (unsuccessful) bloggers now, sending revenue scraping emails to any DL they have in their possession…

    O’Leary has even more at risk…his asset management business is bigger, he’s part of not just one successful show on CNBC (Shark Tank) but has his own now (Money Court), and he has well advertised political ambitions…he gets yanked from CNBC by being exposed as taking spokesman’s comp while irresponsibly investing in a total fraud and hawking crypto on CNBC’s megaphone, he’s dead financially. He’ll be lucky to be a blogger….


    From a purely sociological perspective it is fascinating to watch how people’s behaviors unfold, and how far they deviate from their own stated norms, when faced with an existential risk.

  40. grim says:

    Mexican standoff of epic proportion

  41. grim says:

    Grim, 529s?

    If so, what investment latitude do you have?

    Yep, those are in balanced time-horizon funds today.

  42. Nomad says:


    Do you have knowledge in the SPAC space? This deal is Thunderbridge Capital with Coincheck. Supposed to happen this year, pushed back to ’23. Given current state of Crypto, suspect it wont ever happen. Thoughts?


  43. 1987 Condo says:

    O’Leary was also on his boat when it somehow killed to people.

  44. Boomer Remover says:

    Dumb Q of the day re: time horizon funds such as the 529 grim referenced

    Given the hits across asset classes, is it reasonable to expect target date funds which utilize a mix of stocks/bonds, to outperform their estimates going forward on account of a reversion to mean in the bond market?

    Also, please refresh my memory, as I barely remember this discussion from a few years ago, why did we arrive at Nevada being better than NJ?

  45. Chicago says:

    Boomer. NJ 529 worthless

  46. Chicago says:

    Ask Lib about laundering tuition payments when your kid matriculates

  47. Juice Box says:

    The Economist does not paint a rosy picture for commercial real estate.

    “A record number of leases are now set to expire, offering a chance to trim unwanted space. In 2022, 243m square feet will have hit the market in America, equivalent to more than one in ten leased offices, according to jll, a property firm. By 2025 another 650m—more than all the office space in Manhattan—is up for renewal. Unless the economy rebounds spectacularly, and businesses sour on working from home, landlords will be stuck with too much room for comfort. ”


  48. Juice Box says:

    Jeezus.. Some fools just actually gave Trump $4.5 million for his 45,000 NFT collection and are now pumping and dumping them on opensea.

    Donald Trump NFT Collection Sells Out, Price Surges
    According to data from OpenSea, the collection’s floor price is about 0.19 ETH, or $230, more than double the original mint price.

  49. grim says:

    May need to launder tuition payments depending on how smart these kids actually turn out to be.

  50. Phoenix says:

    No wonder he loves spending American tax dollars there

    Abella Danger (born November 19, 1995) is an American pornographic actress and model.[1][2] She was born in Miami, Florida. She is related to a daughter of the cousin to the 46th US president, president Joseph Robinette Biden Jr.

    Abella belongs to a Jewish-Ukrainian family. She started as a ballet dancer when she was only three years old. [7]


  51. Boomer Remover says:

    I am setup with Vanguard/Nevada. Looking to fund that 529 over the next few months.

    Also, re: high yield savings discussed here. Just got this email about a 4% online savings from BMO Harris, which apparently is a legitimate institution. Sorry Eddie, online only.

    I hope Marcus updates its rates shortly. By the way, I noticed that money wired to Marcus – GS’ consumer facing online arm – accrues interest as of the date the transfer is made and not when it posts, which is nice. One can instantly park say, treasury proceeds elsewhere w/o losing days of interest.

  52. Ex says:

    2:19 “…sigh…” thanks Dr. incel

  53. FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:


    NJ is worthless. I had it when it first open up around ~2000+. At that time they guaranteed your contribution and it was cheap and handled by the State Treasurer. Later they gave it to Templeton and took away the guarantee.

    NV is what Vanguard uses. NY uses Vanguard indirectly and allows 5k yearly deduction out of your NY taxes.

    Remember is just not investment strategy but whether the kid will be college material. Everyone has high hopes for their kin. But reality has a way of bitch slapping you.Up to 6th grade is concrete thinking, so if there are problem, college is not in the works so rollover into another kid with a brighter future, as owner you can always roll it back.

    Go aggressive from birth to 7th or 8th grade, definitely if you use the option to make a larger tax-free 529 plan contribution, if the contribution is treated as if it were spread evenly over a 5-year period. For example, a $80,000 lump sum contribution to a 529 plan can be applied as though it were $16,000 per year, as long as no other gifts are made to the same beneficiary over the next 5 years. After that go totally safe in spurt mainly in the time of years that tend to have rallies. You want to be ultra safe by the 11th grade if college is imminent.

    If college is not imminent then leave some risk because odds of being used right away are minimal and likelyhood of being transferred to another family member before 18 is big as you cannot contribute anymore to it after 18. So rolling over to beneficiary that is going to use it matters a lot.

    Finally, using it. The fact is over 50% of kids fail within 2 yrs. There are some school of thoughts were they recommend using loans the first 3 years to maximize financial aid. Again know your kid. I believe there is no reason to saddle the kid with debt and do more paperwork to make banks richer. So just use the money form the start. If it looks like a failure past first year, cut the losses early and re-assess and find a new path. Rollover the money to a new worthy beneficiary.

    Also another option is an Educational Savings Account, is a brokerage account with the same benefits but lower limits and you can do either ESA or 529 in any year but not both.

  54. Phoenix says:

    Alzheimer Joe probably got his fetish by sniffing her hair.

  55. Phoenix says:

    Joey took the dirty money.

    $46.5 million in Sam Bankman-Fried donations to political groups: Where are they now for 10 candidates
    $27 million – Protect Our Future – Sam Bankman-Fried’s personal PAC that worked to elect congressional Democrats

    $5.2 million – 2020 Biden campaign

  56. leftwing says:

    “Given current state of Crypto, suspect it wont ever happen. Thoughts?”

    Nomad, probably a high probability guess that it won’t occur.. Assuming you are currently long? If so, as you know you are backstopped by the Trust which should be (approximately) 10.00. Funny, I have FPAC warrants hanging around, which is supposed to merge with a different exchange run by Tom Farley, former NYSE Pres. I dumped all actual shares in these things early this year, trade IMO was dead. Probably going to dump the warrants for FPAC and another three situations as they are also most likely going to be worthless, plus the accounting for them gave them a high cost basis so my screen is showing deep losses on these which not reality so it really fucks up my ability to look at my screen now and know where I am quickly…pretty sad statement on the underlyings, that I’ll sell a free option with years left for pennies just for a better look on the UI….

  57. Ex says:

    Perry has previously been implicated in Trump’s efforts overturn his election defeat to Joe Biden. Earlier this week, some of his texts sent to Mark Meadows, former White House chief of staff, came to light, showing increasingly desperate efforts to try to keep Trump in power around the time of the 6 January insurrection.

    Those efforts included seizing voting machines, and a suggestion the US government should investigate an outlandish conspiracy theory in which Italian satellites were used to zap the machines from space and flip votes for Trump to Biden.

    Eastman and his allies had claimed the emails were protected by presidential privilege but Washington DC judge Howell, in her order, rejected it.

    The development comes as the bipartisan panel investigating the 6 January Capitol attack and Trump’s subversion prepares to release on Monday its final report, and make civil and criminal referrals.

    Trump, Eastman and Clark, who sought to become acting attorney general in the waning days of the Trump presidency, are all thought to be among those who could be referred for charges.

    Politico reports that Howell unsealed a second opinion, issued in September, in which she determined that 331 documents from Clark were also not protected by attorney-client privilege.

    The contents of the emails and documents are not known, but the revelation they were in the hands of the criminal inquiry provides a clue to investigators’ thinking over Trump’s plotting.

    Federal agents seized Eastman’s phone in June, the same time as Howell made her order. Perry’s phone was seized in August. Both lost legal challenges to reclaim them, Politico says.

  58. leftwing says:

    Boomer, not sure who 529Ex is above, there’s good advice in there but I would supplement with don’t over-engineer it and make it more difficult than it needs to be.

    I don’t see any need for ongoing, prospective assessments of your kid’s college ability or all these roll-in, rollouts based on it…seems like a lot of pointless busy work that can still leave you with no value added pathway…factor in that the limitations on when you can effect a rollover to a relative (not just a sibling) are pretty generous…use a rollover if/when you need it, only when you need it.

    Worst case, no one of your kids or your relatives uses the funds (including yourself/spouse or grandchildren) and you yank it out when you retire at that current tax rate with 10% penalty on the gains after a couple decades of tax free compounding…if that’s my downside, I’ll take it…

    Also, given the magic of compounding would recommend funding as much upfront as possible…I did my kids in total when the last was born, distinctly remember one point where I thought about moving it out of equities and didn’t…long story short rode it fully in equity from birth through 08-09 and up to right before they started school and still came out on top…even if one had opened a new 529 at the market ATH right before covid in late 2019 you’d still be above water now…

    If you want to ‘time’ the market with a 529(!), and given you haven’t even funded it yet that’s a long way off, you may hit a point in the future where you look at balances and feel both that the fund will cover four years and that the market is toppy…shift it to a risk free option then….I came so close in 2008 to doing exactly that, I distinctly remember where I was, seeing CNBC in the background, and thinking both that the funds were more than adequate for four years and the market rich…I didn’t shift funds, had I actually switched to some FI option I would have been able to put a roomful of kids through rather than just mine…

    Bottom line, more money in sooner to get that compounding going and after that everything else is flexible, with ultimate flexibility when you cross the estimated four year college cost barrier.

  59. Ex says:

    Tick Tick Tick

    The House January 6 select committee is considering a criminal referral to the justice department against Donald Trump for obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress and conspiracy to defraud the United States on the recommendation of a special subcommittee, according to sources familiar with the matter.

    The recommendations on the former president – made by the subcommittee examining referrals – were based on renewed examinations of the evidence that indicated Trump’s attempts to impede the certification of the 2020 election results amounted to potential crimes.

    The select committee could pursue additional criminal referrals for Trump and others, given the subcommittee raised the obstruction of an official proceeding and conspiracy to defraud statutes among a range of options, including insurrection, and discussions about referrals continued on Thursday, said the sources.

  60. leftwing says:

    And another 529 upfront funding consideration (not legal advice, just my personal experience)….It’s great divorce planning.

    No one is going to get divorced until you end up in the 50+% of the population that does…

    If you are the breadwinner of your family, no matter how much you and your spouse are in love, get that 529 funded upfront immediately.

    As breadwinner in the divorce you will be mostly if not entirely responsible for the children’s college costs while your combined assets get split even in half.

    Major lose/lose for you.

    Fund a 529 upfront at birth even (especially) if it means draining joint assets? Win/win. You move assets out of the ‘split’ pot (good) in order to reduce the liability that is your sole responsibility thereafter (even better).

    I would even go so far to advise someone to do something like a cash out refi on a joint residence to get it funded. Not if causes financial stress obviously, but joint assets earmarked specifically for your children’s education have incredible value to you in a divorce. They are outside the property split, and they reduce what will likely be your sole future liability.

    My personal experience…the judge in my case when my lawyer was in chambers one of countless times negotiating the terms remarked to my attorney that I was “lucky” in the division of assets in that the 529s were there and full…my attorney made the mistake of telling me that, I was ripshit. Basically, without the 529s, it was presumed the kids’ colleges was coming out my end….

    Fund those things up front. Someone you know is going to use the funds and even if they don’t your downside relative to the money sitting in your brokerage account is that you keep 90% of the after tax gains rather than 100%, with massive divorce downside principal protection. Hard to find a hedge that good, anywhere, any market.

  61. Juice Box says:

    So latest drop from Taibbi the twitter police were actually the FBI.


  62. FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:


    You are correct regarding minimizing changes to beneficiaries or rollover to another beneficiary’s account. But you will have to plan and do them if you don’t use the funds.

    Contributions allowed from birth to part of year they turn 18, but still 17, once 18 – is not allowed. The next 12 years it can just be a growing asset, but it has to be cashed and paid out by the beneficiary’s 30th birthday and it is a taxable event + 10% when not used for educational purposes, which were expanded to all educational levels, not just college level.

    So to hold the account till retirement like you stated will requires several beneficiary changes along the way as it keeps growing along with juvenile contributions, which mean very good trusting relations with kids, grandkids and all the participants extended family. If played right along with other contributing family members is a family educational trust. One hiccup and someone with a drug issue gets a load of money and tax bill to pay.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    WTF are you talking about?

    FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:
    December 16, 2022 at 5:35 pm
    Contributions allowed from birth to part of year they turn 18, but still 17, once 18 – is not allowed. The next 12 years it can just be a growing asset, but it has to be cashed and paid out by the beneficiary’s 30th birthday and it is a taxable event + 10% when not used for educational purposes, which were expanded to all educational levels, not just college level.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    FYI – gift tax exemption rises to $17,000 in 2023 so it jumps to $85,000.

    FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:
    December 16, 2022 at 2:33 pm
    Go aggressive from birth to 7th or 8th grade, definitely if you use the option to make a larger tax-free 529 plan contribution, if the contribution is treated as if it were spread evenly over a 5-year period. For example, a $80,000 lump sum contribution to a 529 plan can be applied as though it were $16,000 per year, as long as no other gifts are made to the same beneficiary over the next 5 years. After that go totally safe in spurt mainly in the time of years that tend to have rallies. You want to be ultra safe by the 11th grade if college is imminent.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    NJ instituted a state tax exemption for 529 with income limits.

    If you qualify, then open an account and wash $10,000 through it to pay annual tuition. Don’t use the plan otherwise. It is not a big deal, but it is $500 bucks if that means something to you.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Sorry, I think I misconstrued what you are intending. Is this supposed to be estate planning?

    chicagofinance says:
    December 16, 2022 at 5:45 pm
    WTF are you talking about?

    FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:
    December 16, 2022 at 5:35 pm
    Contributions allowed from birth to part of year they turn 18, but still 17, once 18 – is not allowed. The next 12 years it can just be a growing asset, but it has to be cashed and paid out by the beneficiary’s 30th birthday and it is a taxable event + 10% when not used for educational purposes, which were expanded to all educational levels, not just college level.

  67. chicagofinance says:

    FiveTwentyNineExperienced: if you are interested in estate planning, another overlooked thing is the inheritance tax for non-linear decendants.

    Basically it is 15%, 16% etc….. so on a $1M estate from your uncle, you pay a cool $150,000+ right off the top. If you slam some of the money into a 529, it gets it out of the estate and you are saving $0.15 on the dollar. GO TO A LAWYER. just food for thought

  68. leftwing says:

    Don’t disagree and won’t debate what age a contributor to a 529 is when his kid hits 30 years old…retirement or not, it’s 30 years later than when the account was funded if done at birth…

    My point is if you need to break the 529 for any reason the downside is you get 30 years of tax free compounding and realize ‘only’ 90% of those gains rather than 100% if you break it…as I said if that’s the downside, I’ll take it given the strong benefits on the other side of the ledger.

    I did a rollover from an overfunded child’s 529 to the youngest one’s two years ago…it was as simple as picking up the phone and asking Morgan Stanley to transfer money from account 001 to account 002. Probably could have done it online but I had a question for a human. Don’t overcomplicate it.

    Main difference in our views is I’m saying get it funded fully upfront ASAP and let compounding do it’s trick…totally asymmetric tradeoff in your favor…don’t let the unknowns, which are minor and not predictable, get in the way of that good financial decision.

  69. leftwing says:

    “FYI – gift tax exemption rises to $17,000 in 2023 so it jumps to $85,000.”

    And that is just one parent, right?

    Each parent can contribute so a married couple can jam away $170,000 on day one…

    What other tax deferred benefit lets you wrap five years worth of contribution, from both spouses for one beneficiary, and allows gains to ride tax free for up to 30 years with only a 10% penalty on a non-authorized withdrawal?

    The difference between upfront funding and trickling it in over years is huge, run the numbers.

    Hell, if I could fund some prospectively for “to-be-born” grandkids I do half a dozen right now.

    529 upfront funding is a good deal, guys. Better than anything else Uncle Sam is offering our caste these days.

  70. Juice Box says:

    re: 529 upfront funding

    Yeah we did that. Utah plan..my kids will be fine as long as they don’t choose gender studies. I’ll take beer pong and stage diving over it as a reason to fail.

  71. joyce says:

    “Hell, if I could fund some prospectively for “to-be-born” grandkids I do half a dozen right now.”

    What’s to stop you or anyone from opening a 529 account for a friend’s kid and then just withdrawing the funds in the future, paying the penalty, etc.? Is it that flexible?

  72. FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:


    You need the kid’s SS# and he’ll be getting a 1099 and the IRS will make sure that he pays what he owes or else. So it will come back to you one way or another as either the adult kid knocking on the door or the IRS Criminal Investigation Division knocking on the door.


    Contribution to 529 beneficiary are only allowed as juvenile – birth year to 17 year, once 18 they are not allowed. From 18 to 30 is available to be used preferably for the tax free educational needs. By 30 it has to be paid out to the beneficiary or beneficiary has to be change by then.

    Again to pull this off, you need planning, discipline, trust, and lots of luck that the beneficiaries and owners do the right thing when it comes to their part. Which of course is the part the usually fails.

  73. joyce says:

    It’s my understanding that one can name themselves as beneficiary of a 529 account (i.e. a current student; someone considering going back to school for their degree; others)

    FiveTwentyNineExperienced says:
    December 16, 2022 at 7:43 pm

    You need the kid’s SS# and he’ll be getting a 1099 and the IRS will make sure that he pays what he owes or else. So it will come back to you one way or another as either the adult kid knocking on the door or the IRS Criminal Investigation Division knocking on the door.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lefty is filled with words of wisdom….marriage is a flip of the coin. Always protect yourself. You never know if your number will be called.

    “No one is going to get divorced until you end up in the 50+% of the population that does…”

  75. joyce says:

    Is this website incorrect?

    529 Plan Withdrawal Deadlines
    529 plans do not have specific withdrawal deadlines. A 529 plan account owner is not required to take a distribution when the beneficiary reaches a certain age or within a specified number of years after high school graduation, and funds can remain in the 529 plan account indefinitely. This is a huge benefit over other tax-deferred accounts.

    The 529 plan account owner, not necessarily the beneficiary, retains control of the assets throughout the life of the account. If the beneficiary decides not to go to college, or there are leftover funds in the account, the 529 plan account owner may:

    Change the beneficiary to a qualifying family member
    Use the funds to further their own education
    Save the funds for a future grandchild
    Take a non-qualified distribution and pay ordinary income tax and a 10% penalty on the earnings portion of the distribution
    Do nothing and let the funds grow
    However, the rules are different with Coverdell Education Savings Accounts (ESAs) and prepaid tuition plans.

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending.

    I’m now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.

    Here’s what I discovered (and what no one knows):


  77. leftwing says:

    “Again to pull this off, you need planning, discipline, trust, and lots of luck that the beneficiaries and owners do the right thing when it comes to their part. Which of course is the part the usually fails.”

    Is this Lib? C’mon man….

    You make a 529 sound like an Ocean’s Eleven caper…it’s a deferred tax account, like an IRA or HSA…and as simple…

    When you pop your first kid fund as much as you can, ideally the max. When you pop your second kid, same, adjusted for the balance of the first account, ie, if that one has grown substantially maybe you don’t need/want to fund fully the second one. Wash and repeat.

    We’re not splitting atoms here.

    And Boomer, to your original question of allocation, someone posted yesterday snippets of a study on equity/bond allocations and some historical stats. It was a zerohedge link (yeah, I know) but the underlying materials were by Goldman. I found them interesting, may be a good starting point. They specifically looked at 60/40 historically and prospectively IIRC.

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t disrespect Ark like most. I respect their mastery of bull markets through innovative bets. From 2014-2020…they killed it. Anyone that didn’t sell should learn their lesson for being greedy and stop blaming cathie wood. She can’t adjust for risk, that’s up to the individual to know that liquidity was changing and that the FED was coming with a hammer to the head. Blaming Cathie is hilarious if you lost on ark. She can’t change strategy or stay on side lines, but the individual can. Own it.

    I took my position in ark, which was a loss, and turned it into a win. How? First, I learned my most valuable lesson to date: liquidity and don’t fight the FED. Second: Ark was the canary in the coal mine for me. It gave me the conviction to liquidate entire position in the market to start the year. Sold it all off and put into 2% guaranteed insurance positions. Always learn, always adjust. Always acknowledge that you know nothing and stay on the grind.

    Just remember I took a loss that you guys mock me for and turned it into a total win. Cheers.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Scary to think about. Are we entering the Twighlight zone where hands on workers like plumbers make way more than white collar? Plumbers only have to deal with local market. White collar has to deal with massive market competition.

    Still can’t believe the white collar group got so cocky that they gave it all away…

    “Work from home was an experiment to see if white collar jobs could be outsourced. It proved highly successful. White collar jobs are EASIER to outsource than blue collar. That’s your labor arbitrage for the 2020s.”

  80. Chicago says:

    529ex: Joyce is correct. What you are quoting are the Coverdell rules not 529’s.

  81. Ex says:

    Despite being widely mocked online, former US president Donald Trump’s collection of digital trading cards have sold out in less than a day, netting US$4.5m in sales.

    On Wednesday, Trump alerted fans to a “major announcement” on his Truth social media platform. A day later, the 45th president of the United States revealed he was offering “limited edition cards featur[ing] amazing ART of my Life & Career”, which he promised would prove “very much like a baseball card but hopefully much more exciting”.

    The cards include the 76-year-old former commander-in-chief in a boxing ring, preparing to wrestle, as a race-car driver, an astronaut, and on a football field. Each card has his presidential number, 45, stamped on it.

  82. Ex says:

    The report, published Thursday by the US Department of Health and Human Services’ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, reviewed nearly 300 studies published between January 2000 and September 2021. The researchers estimate that 7.4 million misdiagnosis errors are made every year, 2.6 million people receive a harm that could have been prevented, and another 370,000 are permanently disabled or die because of the misdiagnosis. This equates to about 1,400 diagnostic errors every year per emergency room across the country.

    The researchers noted that these rates are on par with what is also seen in primary care and hospital inpatient settings.

  83. Ex says:

    The top five conditions that were misdiagnosed were:

    myocardial infarction
    aortic aneurysm/dissection
    spinal cord compression/injury
    venous thromboembolism
    These five conditions accounted for 39% of all serious misdiagnosis-related harms.

    Stroke was missed 17% of the time, often because people reported symptoms of dizziness and vertigo. When they entered the ER, 40% of patients who had those two symptoms had their stroke missed initially.

    Nonspecific or atypical symptoms were the strongest factor resulting in misdiagnosis, the study found. Women and people of color had a 20% to 30% increase in risk of being misdiagnosed.

    Ten of the country’s leading emergency physician groups, including the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Board of Emergency Medicine, issued a letter to counter the report, which they described as “misleading” and “incomplete.”

    The groups say that they recognize there is always room for improvement but that characterizing the diagnoses as errors is incorrect and a misunderstanding of the aim of emergency medicine, which is to focus on the acute and immediate situation.

    The letter says that emergency medicine “is rightfully less concerned with diagnosis and more concerned with appropriate stabilization and referral for future evaluation of a symptom complex. … The role of the emergency physician is ensuring that the patient is started on the appropriate pathway for the ultimate diagnosis and treatment.”

  84. Fast Eddie says:

    Ahh… the first real message aimed at Agenda 21, equality, diversity, hope and change, woke-ism, equity, common core, common values and the destruction of fundamental America. I think this should be the National Anthem of the up and coming United Soc1alist States of America:


  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    🧵The greatest sign I see in this #biotech market is the deafening quiet. All those rock stars of the 2021 biotech bubble are now gone. Their podcasts are gone, their Youtube channels are gone, and their $400 subscription services are gone.

    1/ The only people left talking about biotech are few and far between assuming they can even endure the myriads of scoffers and skeptics. See, real investors are not fair weather investors.

    2/ They aren’t pounding the table at the peaks and disappearing back to their day jobs in the crash. The real investors are hear every day. They are the ones picking up the pieces left behind.

    3/ I have no doubt that the generational bottom created by this crash in the biotech bubble will be one for the ages. The momo traders are long gone. I don’t see any of them around anymore. The real deals are getting made by investors.

    4/ If you are still here, I am still here with you as that is when I offer the best support. Anyone can sit around pumping stocks into record highs. The real value comes with helping people try to find the bargains that could change their investing life over the next 10 years.

    5/ Its a tough market and many companies will probably fail. The few that don’t could define the next decade in key areas of science that will change the sector. I have key themes like #AI, #CRISPR, #SnyBio, and #iPSC.

    6/ I am still a huge believer that the average investor would do best to contribute to a tax free account every payday and buy a low cost index fund that mimics the overall market. This market has shown too few investors will ever outperform the index.

    7/ If you have the risk appetite to stick around and pick out the diamonds left behind in the disastrous collapse of the pandemic bubble, I am here to help try to identify companies with promising science. These are just ideas, because no science is certain.

    8/ All those big get rich quick dreams died with the popping of the bubble. All that is left is real investing and picking through the rubble to find the bargains that are being thrown out with the trash.

    9/ My top ideas are:
    1. $BEAM
    2. $DNA
    3. $RLAY
    4. $KYMR
    5. $NTLA
    6. $RXRX
    7. $IPSC
    8. $TWST
    9. $SANA
    10. $NVTA

    10/ Disclaimer: All these companies are very speculative. You should always do your own due diligence and make sure they fit your risk appetite. I am not like the pumpers of 2021. There is risk and its a lot of risk, but there is also some great opportunities.

  86. Phoenix says:

    I have an Indian girlfriend right now. If fundamental America is psycho white women hey I’ll pass.

    “Heaven is an American salary, a British house, a Chinese cook and a Japanese wife. Hell is a Chinese salary, a Japanese house, a British cook and an American wife.”

  87. Bystander says:

    Classic Phoenix..sage words, along with ‘never marry a girl from the islands…Manhattan island, Staten Island, Long Island”

  88. 3b says:

    Bystander : Or a girl you met in a bar on St Patrick’s Day.

  89. Juice Box says:

    Interesting tweet on new cars and financing.


  90. Bystander says:

    Oh no..3b. I learned that long ago. Used to date girls who could hang with the guys in terms of drinking. Never marry them. Life gets tough and they will be uncorking wine every night. My poor buddy in Ridgewood married a hard drinking Irish girl from LI. He is f-ed. High lifestyle expectations and polishes 2 bottles herself.

  91. 3b says:

    Bystander: Sorry for your friend. They don’t have to be Irish specifically, just can’t many any girl you meet on St. Patrick’s Day in a bar; it never works out. I have to say, though I am still amazed how many women are out thee , that still want a man to take care of them, don’t want to work, really don’t want to do anything, and then bitch they are not happy.

    Also know a couple of family members who unfortunately married two psychos ,one they met in a bar in St. Patrick’s Day and married, turned out to be a psycho. I knew at the beginning it would not work out. She divorced him and took him for everything, He more than recovered, and she still spiraled down. She is still back shit crazy. The other one is from the west coast, she is just bad. I feel sorry for him; hopefully he sees the light before he complicates his life further.

  92. Ex says:

    1:11 so not everyone should be a car.
    I think the only difference is the amount some borrowers
    have decided to pay. Just another bad investment really.
    Quick way to lose your ass if you aren’t liquid.

  93. Ex says:

    Met my wife on a blind date in an Irish pub in Tampa.
    Little group outing at the time. I was I computer products
    distribution and cane straight from work. 5’9 1/2″, natural blonde,
    Blue eyes, bombshell figure. We just celebrated our 25th anniversary.

  94. Hold my beer says:


    How’s her eyesight and hearing?

  95. Juice Box says:

    Beer – there is a line when you are a comedian, as long as it’s funny…it’s game..
    Perhaps I will refer you to the Bible for inspiration.

    Ezekiel 23:20

  96. 3b says:

    Juice: Is lusting out now??

  97. Ex says:

    4:36 it grows a bit weary at times I’d imagine.
    The concession one makes to time & tides are acutely
    personal. They ebb and flow with the hours and days like
    wind swept dreams across the endless plains.

  98. Juice Box says:

    3B – Lust is a theme in the Bible fore sure. I however was just thinking of just a better joke, like a Hung donkey etc one of the classic. Ex by all description seems to be a short NJ Guy from the tribe. He scored in life, good for him, he shares stories of his luck all the time. No hate from me just sympathy as I know what it’s like to be the donkey….

  99. Bystander says:


    Sure it was not the Mons Venus in Tampa? Nice.

    Another quote (I don’t remember where from, maybe a friend years ago in our 20a)

    “Just remember, no matter how hot she is..someone is tired of her shit”


  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Happy Anniversary, Ex!! Quite the run!

  101. Ex says:

    6:54 she was/is way out of my league.

  102. 3b says:

    Juice: I have not heard that teen hung like a donkey/ horse in ages. He seems like he is devoted to his wide,nice to see after 25 years. I am as well, married a few years longer myself, but still the one. In a perfect world you do it once and then forget about it, does not always work that way. I know some good guys that has some bad marriages, and never again. And the women that divorced them are still looking for love. They have not moved on like the men have.

  103. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Drop the mic.

    “I’ve been a shareholder of $TSLA for 10 years.

    It’s kinda nutty that its biggest drawdown ever came AFTER the business started throwing off tons of cash.

    Just shows how much stock prices are driven by narrative.”

  104. Libturd says:

    Couple of things.

    I’m in the Nevada Upromise 529. I put in about 10K at my son’s birth and it’s now worth 50K through compounding and those stupid Upromise rebates. For about the first ten years, I purchased everything I could through their portal earning 1% to about 10% back. The rebates really added up with the compounding. I also did extremely well as I had the account in a split of 75% large cap growth and 25% S&P until last year when I switched to the target fund (2023) to maintain the gains. There had never been a better time to invest then from Obama in 2009 through the middle of last year.
    Chi is correct. They are a no brainer. Though, there is no reason not to invest them smartly if you know what you are doing. Since NJ offers nothing except the $500 that Chi mentioned (and this is relatively new) since it’s the worst run state in the country. Just look for any plan that has the lowest fees and the best investment options. That 10% penalty will matter little after decades of compounding.

    There is something a little funky about that carsalesguy. It’s definitely some kind of marketing attempt on his part, so he is intentionally sensationalizing. I don’t doubt the trends in auto sales are swinging in the buyer’s favor. But the latest number I read about the number of people jingle mailing in the car are at something around 4%.

    The Devils suck again.

    My incredible dad passed a few nights ago. It was not surprise and he was 88. We were fortunate to all see him when he appeared to be in surprisingly good shape about five weeks ago. I think he was ready as he had been in unbearable pain for the past 6 months in his legs. He has had bone cancer for around ten years. It finally caught up to him. No need to wish condolences. I know you all would anyway and I’m not sharing for sympathy. On the bright side, this will be the first time all of my brothers and sisters will be together in a very long time. I’m very much looking forward to seeing them all.

  105. 3b says:

    Libturb: Condolences any how to you and your family.

  106. grim says:

    Condolences Stu, even if not desired. Never easy, especially around the holidays. Sounds like your father was quite a fighter.

  107. Fast Eddie says:

    Original ask was 797K, just reduced to 794K. Are these people truly that stupid? Like you’re going to get action on a 5K drop for a house that’s still 200K overpriced? I can see it now, house tour guide says to seller, you’re too high on price; chubby muppet insists that they deserve top dollar, we installed blah, blah, blah five years ago and so on. How many years will it take for this one to sell?


  108. Jim says:

    Stu, condolences on the loss of your Dad, its never easy. At least you will be able to get together with family. I am sure he was a great guy!

  109. Fast Eddie says:

    Original ask was 749k, now at 699k… don’t even know how to describe this architectural gem:


  110. Fast Eddie says:

    I guarantee you can fill a notebook with the costly things wrong with this house. The inground pool alone makes me shudder because the amount of upkeep, maintenance, cost and diligence required to keep it functional and pretty is infinitely more than people realize. Muppets can’t even keep a clean house let alone do the difficult and costly things required to keep a house desirable. This one will linger until it finds a “5” handle:


  111. Fast Eddie says:

    Another gem at 700K and another one that will linger and drop as the issues are uncovered:


  112. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My condolences. Stay strong. Never easy.

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:


    “All you need is a few big winners during your lifetime to beat the market. Everyone will say you got lucky, but everyone else didn’t have the skill to find them, the courage to buy them, or the conviction to hold them. In the end luck has very little to do with it. Get after it.”

  114. 3b says:

    Fast: I guess they did not get the message, the party is over

  115. 3b says:

    Almost half of young adults from 18 to 29 are living at home. It’s the largest percentage since WW II.

  116. Juice Box says:

    Happy Hanukkah

  117. 3b says:

    Happy Hanukkah!

  118. Ex says:

    Engaging in social or sexual contact with your romantic partner may increase your oxytocin levels, creating a behavior loop. The more time you spend with your partner, the more oxytocin you produce; the more oxytocin you produce, the more you may desire your partner.

  119. Hold my beer says:

    Stu, my condolences to you and your family.

  120. Ex says:

    Stu – best to you & the fam!

  121. NJCoast says:

    Sorry for your loss Stu.

  122. Phoenix says:

    Stu- so sorry.

  123. Libturd says:

    It’s all good. Was a great funeral. Thanks for the condolences

  124. Grim says:

    Happy Hanukkah!

  125. Ex says:

    Happy Festivus!!!

  126. BRT says:

    Sorry for you loss Lib.

Comments are closed.