Why recession fears are back: Americans are losing faith
From the executive suite to the grocery aisles to the halls of the Federal Reserve, the big question is: Can red-hot inflation be vanquished without tipping the economy into a recession?
Ironically, all this talking about a recession can actually help cause one. How people feel is a huge driver of consumer behavior and business planning. The famous British economist John Maynard Keynes coined the phrase “animal spirits” to describe what drives investors, consumers and business leaders. Fear, hope, uncertainty, and confidence are all hard to measure — and hugely important to how the economy fares.
Essentially, worrying about a recession and planning for one can be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
“At the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. Consumers worry about losing a job and so pull back on spending, and business leaders worry their sales will decline and start laying off workers.
“You get into this kind of self-reinforcing negative cycle,” he told CNN’s Early Start. “So when sentiment is this bad and starting to feed on itself, we run the risk of talking ourselves into one.”
The US economy grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter, and the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. That’s not going to last. The Federal Reserve this week lowered its forecast for growth in the United States next year to just 0.5% and a jobless rate rising to 4.6% by the end of 2023.
“Look, we’re planning as if there’s going to be a mild recession next year,” United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby told CNN This Morning. “And a lot of people in the business world are trying to talk ourselves into one is what it sometimes feels like to me.”
But he added, “If I didn’t watch business shows or read the Wall Street Journal, the word recession wouldn’t be in my vocabulary because we just don’t see it in our data.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and plenty of economists — including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen — still see a path to a so-called soft landing, where the economy slows enough to lower inflation but not cause a recession. Yellen explained this week that recession risks permanently exist.
“There are always risks of a recession,” Yellen told CBS’s “60 Minutes” in an interview that aired on Sunday. “The economy remains prone to shocks.”
But Zandi said there can be a bright side to the dark worries.
“It may just, in an odd kind of way, help things out because if everyone’s so nervous about recession, they are cautious,” he said. “They don’t take big risks. They don’t take on a lot of debt. They don’t go out and make big expansion moves (and) that may cool things off sufficiently to bring inflation down so that (the Fed) doesn’t have to raise rates as much and we actually — weirdly enough — avoid a recession.”
Yellen out in the new year?
The job market is about to go ice cold. Hold on to that tall spar mateys!
lol Gotta love Hoboken..
12-foot wide bike lane on Sinatra drive. cost 4.4 million..
What about the joggers?
Criminal referrals coming for the orange imbecile.
Has anyone been actually charged with insurrection??? I don’t believe so.
They also have a huge problem. Destruction of evidence. Secret Service, DHS and Pentagon messages were deleted, and some of them have not testified. I would say Trump can mount a defense, not saying he isn’t guilty of something but you still have to make it stick, the attempted end around 14th amendment is an interesting one, probably will result in a Supreme Court challenge. Might all be for nothing if he does not get the nomination. Same for Sleepy Joe too… “Don’t run Joe” TV ads running these days…
Both should retire from elections and public office.
At least ARKK didn’t hit its 52-week low.
First Covid hit to our house. 13 year old. Three days of a mild cold, mostly an irritating cough. Wouldn’t have thought anything of it or even tested if he hadn’t had an appointment with a specialist today. Another three month wait now.
Crazy that we made it this long with two teenagers and a wife teaching elementary.
I’m going to hold on to his positive tests long enough to get at least he and I out of Christmas Eve with the in-laws.
Russian Collusion: Nothing
Impeachment 1: Nothing
Bounty Gate: Nothing
Impeachment 2: Nothing
Jan. 6th Erection: Nothing
6 years, $100 million dollars invested in circus theater and the only ones that care are laced panty-wearing males in runny eye shadow and sticky mouths.
Stu: regret reading the news
9:53 you are woefully uninformed.
9:53 also you are f-cking weird.
New York Times slammed over ‘swastika’ crossword on first day
Isn’t Bountygate the New Orleans Saints?
One look at the weather map makes me wonder if we’ll ever really leave CA.
50 years ago, liberals had this utopian vision of growing apple trees and honey bees. They were a peace-loving bunch of muppets. Fast forward 50 years and their crushed dreams of fairyland Shangri-la has been replaced by genderless, teary-eyes bots wearing smeared lipstick, running amok, clawing a meat clever screaming for acceptance. What a spectacle. Lmao!
As long as there is a never ending flow of dupes to buy into the hoaxes, they will continue. 5-10 times, they have no qualms about playing the fool.
Both parties Banana Butt. Both parties.
I’m not sure if Gary even took a history class.
The media and their partners such as Schiff have spent six + years stringing along a bunch of dupes with the hopes of imminent convictions. It was borderline hysteria for much of that time. Bombshells, game changer, etc. many many failed hoaxes in between. You got played for fools.
Anyone still supporting the ex-potus baffoooooon simply likes losing.
There is a difference between supporting him further as a politician, and defending the record.
The way he is able to unhinge people is something I’ve never seen before, and can’t quite comprehend. Very problematic for his candidacy.
His rights have also been abused in totally unprecedented ways. From the spying, and bogus charges, frame jobs etc.
Those things would happen with the willing fools who buy into and parrot the hoaxes. 6+ years and you are still doing it.
Watch the Jan 6 committee it’s on right now.
A reasoned, concise, and damning timeline for the record.
What happens next? Is up to the DOJ.
January 6 Committee was the worst Show Trial since anything Lenin and Stalin and Mao put together. What better way to “Defend Democratcy” than to stomp out any pretenses of legitimacy and “just get Trump”.
Sorry Stu…best to your family at this time.
BananaJoe, Benghazi much? Birther movement, Tea Party racists..this shite has been going on a long time. If anything, Dumpy got more cover from McConnell and the Rs than any party should ever give. He was/is a childish imbecile. I guess the GA was a hoax too. You simply bury your head between his fat orange cheeks. I look forward to day when you Rs look back at the clown and say he was horrible and we never supported his party, just like your 20 years late with Bush/Cheney.
Trump Derangement Syndrome: A mental disorder characterized by a clinically significant disturbance in an individual’s cognition, emotion regulation or behavior usually associated with substantial distress in social, occupational or other important activities.
He acted in an unprecedented manner that should bar him from EVER holding a public office.
Trump Fellatio Syndrome/TFS: A mental disorder where a TV prez with narcissistic rage gets lionized by low IQ cultists, rich tax cheats, bigots and religious zealots for pushing conspiracies, racism, sexism and even a coup attempt in his quest for vengeance. Their calling card is posting ‘but his mean tweets’ while claiming others have TDS.
Had Phish (XM) on in the car yesterday while cruising some back roads in upstate NY. That guitarist can jam! I don’t believe I’ve heard the same song twice and something always catches my ear with this guy.
Wow, way to pack that with straw men. The institutional overreach that has gone on has been unprecedented. Congress became a kangaroo court, the fbi destroyed itself, the doj is doing it now. No we haven’t seen anything like this.
Nice Ed. Not in car enough to listen to Phish Radio. I know they used to skew towards newer shows which is great. I love replays and hearing 3.0 jams (3.0 = Phish after 5 year break-up or 2009-present). For you, I really think that 1990 – 1997 period would have blown your socks off. It was all rock out energy, 4 guys moving is synergy. Weird, experimental, ambitious compositions. Some of these songs Trey just can’t play anymore, like this tune from 1993. It was one of my favorites by them, top 5. I cringe when I hear it now bc they slow it down and drift off into another jam. Like many Phish songs, the casual listener will bail at 4m as too strange and bad singing. Those that stay get rewarded with great soloing that turns into masterpiece of avant-garde/prog rock psychedelia. Whole show is fantastic.
Still thinking about the 4 shows next week. We’ll see.
I’ll check out the link in a bit. The one jam was from a song called the Moma Dance(?) in 1994 (I think). Live from Glen Falls?? Can’t totally remember but the jam was off the charts.
Condolences to you and your family Stu.
Moma Dance..that is a good funky tune. Think that came out in late 90s. I have a few shows from 98 or so where it was all instrumental, no words. It was called something else then they put some lyrics to it later.
Can’t warm to Phish. Tried. Cannot.
I told Althea I was feeling low:
1998 perhaps. Glen Falls? Glen something? They jammed to Moma Dance… Trey was going off. His guitar sound is thick, soaked in tube it sounds. I have to check out his rig setup.
You are not alone. Phish and Dead are nothing alike, except the crowds. Right now, it is Phish vs. Goose with the millennials and younger crowd. Having a hard time with older Phish heads getting into Goose as they are too polished and lack personality (to some) but I think they are very good.
This puts the J6 discussions in perspective.
I only know of 10/31/94 at Glenns Falls bc I passed on a ticket/ride as broke up with college gf and too bummed to go. Kick myself now. Entire White Album performed. Trey’s solo on WMGGW is one of the best that you will ever hear. Reba on that show is unreal. Could be another but they started playing Saratoga SPAC more in late 90s.
“Congress became a kangaroo court”
Like our Supreme Court of liars?
Florida real estate is eventually going to get killed. It was driven up by a massive wave of boomers, and will absolutely get wrecked when those boomers start dying and there is no replacement in line for their supply.
Be very very careful where you buy real estate. You want to own only in high density locations. Small towns will get absolutely destroyed if population growth continues to fall.
“Aging of US Population is a big problem.
Right now Seniors occupy 36 Million Housing Units in America. Huge increase in last decade.
But there’s only 16 Million Housing Units occupied by Young Adults Under 30. Same number as in early 1980s.”
“Florida Housing Market will get hit hardest by this Demographic Decline.
For instance, in North Port/Sarasota, over 50% of Homeowners are Seniors (aged 65+).
Cape Coral, Palm Bay, Deltona, Miami, and Tampa all in the Top 10 Oldest Owner Metros.”
Just think of Florida as the biggest real estate bubble in America. Just like the boomers created a national bubble in 2000-2008 with their move up and second home purchases, they now created a high concentrated boomer induced super bubble in Florida. They all moved there and competed with themselves in driving up the market to absurd levels because they were the richest demographic population.
You have been warned by pumpkin.
*they were the richest demographic group in our population
Again, this is only if they don’t open up immigration…and good chance they will try to. No choice. So see what happens.
“IF the US opens the border, especially to LEGAL immigrants, they could “backfill” the lost housing demand from our aging population.
But the higher housing demand from immigration will go to specific metros. NY, Miami, DC, Houston.”
Gist of the lesson.
Unless population growth returns, current generations have zero chance of seeing the real estate appreciation of previous generations. No chance. Previous generations experienced enormous population growth, hence, the huge run up in real estate in specific high density locations. Places like NYC will still appreciate, but other locations will continue downward into nothing unless population growth changes.
Lib: Armageddon Perhaps? But don’t worry, I read an article today that said housing won’t go down next year: everything else, but not housing.
Ex: for you….. backing tracks on Exotic Tour 1994. I am sending you to the most unique unheard track.
that’s the wrong one….. this one…
Actually, here is a slapped together full version that someone created…. to be clear, there is no official version or recordings….. none exist.
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 19, 2022 at 6:00 pm
“Florida real estate is eventually going to get killed. It was driven up by a massive wave of boomers…”
The history of Florida real estate is one of boom and bust, so it would be naive to think that a bust can’t happen again. Having said that, there are multiple trends that lead me to think that what’s happening now is more fundamentally sound and sustainable. First, I think the splintering of the US between red and blue is real, and large numbers of people really are migrating from blue states to red states for cultural, political and economic reasons. Likely even more important, the migration of major financial (and other) firms in whole (Citadel) or part (Goldman), has the potential to significantly diversify Florida’s traditionally tourism-dependent economy. In short, I think that Florida’s trajectory is likely to be more like Texas going-forward, even ‘redder’ than in the past, and a haven for human and financial capital that’s fed up with the increasingly radical, leftist Dems that govern the stale, sclerotic and broken blue states.
7:54 yessss suh
Rest in Peace:
Lib, from your Bloomberg article…
“Morgan Stanley’s team is now leaning toward its bear case forecast for earnings of $180 per share in 2023 compared with analysts’ expectations of $231.”
Yen holdings exploded upward
Ex, that one hurts. I was watching this over the weekend.
Summary: A new study links same-sex attraction to parents’ socioeconomic status during pregnancy. Researchers report the highest frequency of same-sex attraction was found in children in the lowest income group and elevated levels of same-sex attraction in children who came from the most affluent backgrounds. They speculate higher levels of fetal estrogen are a factor in both male and female same-sex attraction in the lowest-income group, while elevated levels of fetal testosterone are a factor in the higher-income group. Higher fetal estrogen was related to more submissive roles in same-sex relationships, while higher fetal testosterone was associated with more assertive characteristics.
Now on, I’m dressing as teacher before I have sex.