Confidence improves … a little

From CNBC:

Consumer confidence in housing finally rises, thanks to falling home prices

Mortgage rates are still twice what they were a year ago, but home prices have been falling since June, and that’s finally making consumers feel better about what had been an overheated, highly competitive housing market.

A monthly housing sentiment index from Fannie Mae showed sentiment improving from November to December. The index is still lower than it was a year ago and just slightly off its record low set in October and November.

The share of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home was still low, at just 21%, but it was up from 16% in October. The share saying now is a bad time decreased.

On selling, however, sentiment continued to drop. The share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell dropped to 51% from 54%, while the share saying now is a bad time to sell increased.

More consumers now believe home prices will fall in the next 12 months, and more also said they believe mortgage rates will come down.

Prices in November, the most recent measurement, were 2.5% lower than the spring 2022 peak, according to CoreLogic. They were still over 8% higher year over year, but that annual comparison is now half of what it was in June.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit a recent high of 7.37% in October but then fell back into the mid-6% range throughout November and into December. As of last Friday it had dropped to 6.2%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“As we enter 2023, we expect affordability to remain the top challenge for potential homebuyers, as even small declines in rates and home prices — from the perspective of the buyer — may not produce sufficient purchasing power,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, in a release. “At the same time, existing homeowners may continue to wait to list their properties, since many have already locked in lower mortgage rates, creating minimal incentive to sell and buy again until rates are more favorable.”

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99 Responses to Confidence improves … a little

  1. Libturd says:

    Somehow Frist

  2. leftwing says:

    ha, Second. Got nuthin’ else, lol

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The amount of people expecting a big drop in housing and stocks is at insane levels. When your uber driver thinks housing and stocks will get slammed, prob not going to happen. Works on the way up and it works on the way down. No difference. Prob push this crash out another year or two, or maybe it never even comes with this goldilocks labor market anomaly. Such weird economic times. Really are in uncharted territory.

    Still on the same page as LIB, but the majority are almost never ever correct when it comes to the economy.

  4. Libturd says:

    Mar 7, 2022,07:30am EST


    Economic Forecast 2022 And Beyond: Good Now, Scary Later

    The economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 in the United States is good, though inflation will remain high and storm clouds grow in later years.

    The war in Ukraine raged with uncertain outcomes while this forecast was prepared. The war will play only a small role in the American economy—unless it really turns into World War III, which doesn’t seem likely.

    A reporter recently asked, “What’s the most important economic statistic for business leaders to follow in 2022?” It is not an economic statistic; it’s Covid. The best working assumption for an economic forecast is that Covid has less impact, thanks to vaccinations and past infections. Assume no more lockdowns and people will dine out, travel and go to concerts. But keep your fingers crossed, as new variants are quite possible.

    Economic growth will be pushed up by past stimulus, both fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus. No additional major stimulus will come this year, but stimulus always works with time lags. So this year’s economy is mostly driven by past stimulus.

    Supply constraints limit our growth no matter how much stimulus is pushed into the economy. Look for inflation-adjusted GDP to increase by 4% this year, then a little faster 2023.

    The current supply constraints will ease gradually but not go away. More workers will return to the labor force as schools re-open reliably and as stimulus payments and unemployment insurance benefits are farther in the past. Most of our supply chain problems have been labor problems, and the shipping and production issues will be slowly resolved. Optimistic is justified, but gradually, not immediately.

    Inflation will remain high this year and next as our past stimulus keeps pushing prices up. Although supply problems will ease, that’s only a small portion of our inflation. Mostly, we have had way too much stimulus relative to our productive capacity. The Consumer Price Index will likely rise by 6.5% this year and 6% in 2023.

    What will the Federal Reserve do? They are certainly going to tighten. Right now they only partially agree that we’ve had too much stimulus already. They continue to believe that supply chains are the major issue. But as the year goes by, they are likely to change to a belief that stimulus has been excessive.

    Short-term interest rates will move up from about zero now to just under 2% by the end of 2022, with another two and a half percentage points of increase over the course of 2023. This is a much larger gain than most economists are forecasting, and much higher than the Fed’s policy-making officials expect they will have to do. But continuing high inflation will lead to changes opinions.

    The Fed will also shift from keeping long-term interest rates down through their purchases of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. They will start shrinking their assets, which will have a contractionary effect on economic growth. At the same time, most foreign long-term interest rates will rise slowly, as the global demand for credit increases faster than the global supply of savings. So 10-year treasury bonds will yield about 4% by the end of 2023, with home mortgage rates up to 5.5%.

    That sounds scary to some, but leaves interest rates well below historical averages.

    What happens beyond 2023? This is the scary part of the forecast. The Federal Reserve has a huge challenge in that their policies work with time lags. The time lag from Fed action to employment is about one year, and the time lag from action to inflation is about two years. This is a simplification, of course, with some effect coming in a quarter or two, then rising to a peak and then diminishing. But think of a short time lag to employment effects and a longer time lag to inflation.

    When the Fed starts tightening, at first . . . nothing happens. There will probably be articles in newspapers saying that monetary policy no longer works—there always are. But then employment growth will slow down—but not inflation. We’ll call that stagflation. What will the Fed do then, when they have tapped the brakes but inflation is still going too fast? Will they press down harder on the brakes, or will they worry about job losses and hit the gas?

    In the 1970s the Fed made repeated mistakes. They learned some lessons, but their goals are not just two percent inflation, but also good job opportunities. They like having a job market where jobs were available even to high school dropouts with prison records.

    If the Fed persists with fighting inflation, we’ll be at risk of a mild recession, but inflation will be tamed. But if they fail to fight inflation now, then they will be postponing the pain, and they will have to tighten even harder when they eventually deal with inflation, likely resulting in a more severe recession.

    Which course they will choose is difficult to say, but the economy is already set up for a more cyclical path. It’s like driving on an icy road. Keep the car going straight, and everything is good. But once you start swerving, it’s very hard to get back under control.

    One of the things economists know from history is that economies with low inflation tend to have stable growth. But high inflation economies tend to be very cyclical.

    For example, economic growth in the decade before the pandemic varied only a little, with no recession over an entire whole decade. What would this look like in a high-inflation economy? Well, we ran that experiment in the 1970s and early 1980s, as the chart shows.

    Business leaders should expect that in 2024 and beyond, the economy will be more cyclical than they have experienced over most of their careers. The booms will be boomier, and the busts will be bustier.

    The near-term outlook is solid because of past stimulus, but the later years bring great risk of recessions.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Meaning you don’t have planned boom and bust cycles by the masses. They are always blindsided.

    No one saw that blowoff top rally coming in 2020-21 to end the bull…no one.

    What’s also funny? How investors romanticize in hindsight. Now all of a sudden, 2009-2020 was an easy investment period. Right, maybe looking at charts in hindsight, but not if you lived it. That was a dark investment period with calls of the new norm of stagflation low growth. Cries of deflation. No wage growth. Housing is dead forever. It was a horrible period for investment outlook, but because we look at charts in hindsight it was EASY. Lmao. Human nature is hilarious.

  6. Bystander says:

    It was only EASY, dufus because of the rate cutting in 2019. Q4 2018 was the worst market drop since the global crisis, 17% tumble. Dumpy was beside himself, crying over a few increases. It was then followed by major repo QE to soothe markets in Q3 2019 then obvious mega-printing / rate cutting fiasco of COVID in Q1 2020. My CT home dropped in value (10%) between Q1 2015-Q1 2020. My neighbors lost a 1ook selling in Q4 2019 after buying new in 2014. Do you think at all about causation, rather than retro-actively saying ” obviously, it was a great time to invest”?

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Housing inventory continues to be very low. If you’re in this area and looking to sell, you’ll benefit but then give it right back if you buy in the same area. The only alternative: move out of state. Townhouses and condos don’t seem to be much of a bargain either and those are a crapshoot when looking to sell, regardless of market conditions. I can’t see myself downsizing to a townhouse. You never know but I always ask myself; how easy is it to sell the house if I buy the house.

  8. Juice Box says:

    Space politics in play…..Not being talked much yet in the MSM.

    So there are three stranded on the ISS as their Soyuz return spaceship sprung a leak last month and they don’t know if it will burn up on reentry as the cooling system is damaged. Two Russian cosmonauts and one American astronauts went up on the Soyuz together in September.

    Next Space X Crew-6 dragon launch is scheduled February to the ISS and now is a rescue mission, but as it turns out only for the American astronaut. They are kicking a cosmonaut off the Crew-6 dragon launch and sending up an empty chair and empty Space X custom fit suit for the American Astronaut Francisco Rubio so he can get a ride home, his stay will be extended three months or so as he was supposed to come back in March on the now damaged Soyuz MS-22.

    Cosmonauts Sergey Prokopiev and Dmitry Petelin will have to wait for mother Russia to rescue them. Russia may send another Soyuz up with empty seats in the late Feb or March timeframe if they can get it together. No idea if they can with sanctions and all.

    NASA has said they asked Space X to look into launching the ship with 7 seats instead of 4 but there is no confirmation that will be the case on this next launch.

    We probably will never see another American astronaut fly up on a Soyuz ever again, and chances are Russia will stop flying to the ISS all together in a year or two as the war drags on and what remains of our cooperation in space and the ISS ends.

  9. Chicago says:

    Juice: here is some footage from space regarding recent developments.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, in hindsight. This is what they all say now. It was easy. No it wasn’t. You had to have strong convictions to make money last decade….you had to take HUGE RISKS like I did going all in on FAANG to make money. You had to buy housing when it looked like a red flag (how many of you claimed north jersey housing was dead due to property taxes?). How quick we forget.

    Bystander says:
    January 10, 2023 at 9:01 am
    It was only EASY, dufus because of the rate cutting in 2019.

  11. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I think every single year last decade, you had bears calling that this was the year of the housing crash. Stocks will crash this year. Every single year.

  12. BRT says:

    No one saw that blowoff top rally coming in 2020-21 to end the bull…no one.

    other than the people that shorted it at the peak

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Problem is…most bears were dead by 2021 from shorting wrong for a decade.

    You were fortunate to be a bear (you invest in silver) not taken out by how many times you were wrong during that run from 2009-2021

  14. 3b says:

    A decade of low interest rates, massive bubbles, massive spending, and then massive inflation. And now we have those who say we can’t have a recession, simply because we don’t want one. Then the blah, blah, no one saw this coming, which is not true of course, and it’s different this time, we are special here and all the rest. The fundamentals don’t change.

  15. leftwing says:

    He’s a total and complete fool BRT, why even engage?

    You’re up what, 40% from that *unpredictable* top? I’m at ATH in my portfolio….The entire forum here screamed at him to get out starting late 2021…I mean JFC Powell came out in November 2021 saying he was raising rates…that is when everything turned TO THE DAY…

    It was only *unpredictable* to an idiotic 40 year old penny stock buying man-child who at the time did not know even the most basic relationship between rates and equities, something taught to every 18 year old student with a passing interest in finance….

  16. 3b says:

    Fast: The key is the first time home buyers, if they can’t afford to buy and with two incomes, then there is no housing market. Massive increase in housing prices, and low rates, now rates have doubled, and there are those including some people I know who are pissed they missed peak pricing, and won’t give their house away, while at the same time wondering how their children will afford to buy here. The people with low rates won’t want to sell, but the long time owners, and the old folks eventually will sell. I see some houses now that sold in awful locations in the last couple of years now back on the market asking 75 to 100k more than they paid. They are delusional.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Yawn, give it a rest. No one knew where the market was going. You made a bet and won, stfu. I pulled my 401k and saved more than the both of you made combined shorting the market.

  18. BRT says:

    lol, I haven’t bought Gold/Silver in 13 years buddy.

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How long were you wrong on housing? How about your nonsense that the suburbs were dead. How that bet work out?

    Yet, you guys bust my balls for losing 8k in ark in one year. Meanwhile, I was the only one yelling and screaming to take advantage of the free money (low rates-that you guys said would never go away zirp anyone) and maximize loan to buy cheap real esate. i was mocked over and over. Beat to chit by clubs on this blog over and over for my calls. Who was correct?!!!!! Now claim that I was “lucky.” Lmfao

    3b says:
    January 10, 2023 at 9:50 am
    A decade of low interest rates, massive bubbles, massive spending, and then massive inflation. And now we have those who say we can’t have a recession, simply because we don’t want one. Then the blah, blah, no one saw this coming, which is not true of course, and it’s different this time, we are special here and all the rest. The fundamentals don’t change.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s the fact that you did…

    BRT says:
    January 10, 2023 at 9:57 am
    lol, I haven’t bought Gold/Silver in 13 years buddy.

  21. BRT says:

    lol, what price did I buy at?

  22. Libturd says:

    Stop engaging. You couldn’t frack through his skull, due his thickness. He so full of sh1t, the Passaic Sewage Authority is jealous of him. And trust me, when housing drops the 20%-30% around here, he’ll say it doesn’t matter if you DCA into it.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lib, you are telling me real estate is going to be cheaper here in 10-20 years?

  24. leftwing says:

    3b and I are at nine months….we welcome any members to our club.

    Just shut this fool down already. Even the breadwinner in his household doesn’t want to hear his foolish ‘investment theses’, she doesn’t let him near her hard earned money.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Every week or so, news hits that an old-economy venue — a Lord & Taylor department store or a hotel near Boston’s historic baseball stadium, Fenway Park — is being turned into laboratory space. Biotech is so much in the air that “literally every other person is talking about some molecule or some cell,” said Noubar Afeyan, founder and Chief Executive Officer of Flagship Pioneering Inc., the venture capital firm that created Moderna and holds a position in it worth more than $1.7 billion. “I go to a Red Sox game and two or three seats away people are talking about biotechnology — seriously.”

    At Ginkgo, erstwhile billionaire Kelly is forging ahead with plans to expand into more than 200,000 square feet in a new seaside Boston building. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. is also putting up a new structure with 344,000 square feet of labs and offices that it plans to be in for at least 20 years after it opens in 2025. Kelly likens the recent drop in biotech stocks to the 2000 tech crash that weeded out the weak, leaving more durable enterprises to soak up capital and buttress the overall industry.

    The death of companies such as “didn’t mean the internet was wrong,” he said.

    References to the dot-com bubble are somewhat rueful: Boston was at one time the cradle of the tech industry, where early computer makers like Wang flourished. It’s been so long since that industry took most of its talent and dollars to Silicon Valley that almost no one remembers it.

    What keeps these biotech titans so bullish? Biotech is accustomed to long timelines and frequent disappointments, said Vertex Pharmaceuticals CEO Reshma Kewalramani. Further, Boston’s vast research and health-care resources remain fertile ground for the industry. “What we do takes time,” she said, “and failure is commonplace.”

  26. Bystander says:


    Blumpy is that just a digital representation of the prefrontal cortex of selfish Fed brain. He exists because they exist. The problem is that in the short term, they have done everything to validate his needy inner child to be considered ‘smart’. A decade is short term in grand scheme of things. Experience on this blog knows that long game is at play. Realistically it could be 5 years, 10 years or even 20 before a collapse comes. He will consider himself smart until such time that our country looks like Brazil and barbarians will be at his gate. It is crumbling – infrastructure is becoming horrid. Tolls and grifting continue to be absurd, rising again this week. The money gets sucked up in payouts and corruption. That is first step in the end game.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Biotech is the future. A dynamic ecosystem is being developed in Boston as we speak. Still early to this game, but that won’t last forever.

  28. Chicago says:

    Did you see the 6 month hit 494? Sitting at 489.

  29. 3b says:

    Bystander: Agreed. Where I was wrong, was assuming the Fed was going to be responsible, and not keep rates so low for so long, and engaging in massive quantitative easing. The housing correction did not play out as it should have, as the Fed stepped in, and put a floor under it, when it should have let it play out. Of course, it would have been painful, and I don’t make light of that, but it would have reset the market, so one could determine real value of the asset, not just looking at the finance mechanism. We have had all these so called free market capitalists crowing about how smart they are, and this is the market, and you have to be in it and blah, blah, blah, Now these same people are screaming for a Fed pivot, and rates need to be cut , and we can’t have a 5 percent FFR. If it all collapses with a 5 percent FFR then we are truly screwed. A generation of investors and home owners and Wall Street people have known nothing but low rates , now that we may be going back to some type of real market with real risk, they are crying and voicing fake concern for people. The fact is they want it all as you note, and want to brag about how smart and savvy they are, when in the end it all stemmed from reckless Fed policies.

  30. 3b says:

    Left: Yes, new members are always welcome! And there are no membership fees or hidden charges. Act now!!

  31. Bystander says:


    There was that quiet time a few years back when blog was offline for 4-5 months. Looking back itwas a good break, probably needed break for Grim. We had a solid month before dufus checked in. He did so under false handle. Denied it but too obvious. That was a good month. Truth has bearing in his life

  32. Bystander says:

    no bearing

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Understand and learn from your mistakes as I have with the Fed.

    Dream on if you think they will ever willingly let it all crash without trying to save it.

    You guy bash me over and over, and when I bite back? It’s ignore him. Grow up people.

  34. leftwing says:

    We could run a cumulative number of days with new members…kind of like those OSHA postings you see….if we are each at +/- 270 days that’s 540 days Pumpkin-free….everyone who comes on we’ll keep adding to the total, in addition to our new days…set a goal of how quickly we as a forum can get to 1000 days….

    I mean, how anyone can engage with someone who reasons that he’s ‘saved’ more in potential losses than monetary gains we actually booked…smh….me, personally, I’ll take actual additional cash in my account versus sitting at par booking fictional gains….not to mention most people’s gains here are more than his entire portfolio, lol. I recall Lib a couple of years ago shutting him down by noting that the investment amounts the idiot was talking about making was not even equal to the daily move in Lib’s account balance…always seems to be the most inconsequential and dumbest that are the loudest….

  35. 3b says:

    Bystander: I remember that. I am sure Grim needed that break, and here we are all these years later, and well you know!

  36. Fast Eddie says:


    …some people I know who are pissed they missed peak pricing, and won’t give their house away…

    Indeed. They’ll stick to the price no matter what. Wear a mask to deaden the smell and sun glasses to mute the Crayola-colored walls as you view chubby Mary’s house. The monthly nut between 3.5% interest and 6.5% interest is astronomical. And yes, who wants to give up that sweet 2.85% fixed rate? Interesting times. But alas, if Muffin gets that Upper Bergen address, her world is complete.

  37. 3b says:

    And of course reading comprehension, and critical thinking is key!!

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was going to fire back and smoke your ass, but I am taking the higher ground.

    I refuse to be talked down to. 🖕🏻✌🏻🎃

  39. 3b says:

    Fast: I told one friend of mine to stop bitching and if he is ready to sell, then do it. He is retiring in a couple of years, and his parents left him a house on the shore. He basically said, sellers should lower their prices so his son and daughters in law can afford to live in Bergen Co, and in the same breath said but he should not have to take less for his house.

    As for Muffin, there are houses on Kinderkamack Rd all the way up to the NYS line that are available, and also houses backing up to 17 and 208.

  40. Ex says:

    I don’t mind downsizing at this point, pocketing a couple of hundred K and feelin’ no pain. Thinking that might happen. The only thing that will stop us…? Math. Interest rates of a higher nature making a downsize move “not worthwhile” on a monthly basis.

  41. Phoenix says:

    One would think you would have to be wealthy in China to order a Tesla anyway.

    Hundreds of recent Tesla buyers stormed the automaker’s stores and showrooms across China after surprise price cuts were announced over the weekend.

    Footage shows crowds of angry car owners swarming Tesla distribution centres in several Chinese cities, including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Xi’an, as they demanded a refund.

    The demonstrators slammed the sudden discounts of the Tesla Model Y and Model 3, claiming they had missed out on the price reductions, ranging from between 13 percent and 24 percent of the original cost.

  42. Libturd says:

    For the record, Zillow has my primary home valued at 836 down from 915. That’s already a 9% decline from June 2022 to January 2023. There have been no recent home sales in the surrounding ten-house radius or so which could negative or more likely positively impact Zestimates. This is Glen Ridge across from the country club.

    You won’t hear about the declines for another few months for many reasons. First, real estate value reporting is three months behind. Second, no one wants to hear it or read it. It’s happening. Trust me. 9% in 7 months. What’s it going to be when the layoffs start and houses are forced onto the market.

    Did you all see how poorly Bed Bath and Beyond did this holiday season. Remember. Their bankruptcy has nothing to do with consumers not shopping there. How much did sales drop off this year compared to last? 33%! That’s a huge number.

    So when the shit hits the fan in our economy a month from now, don’t say, “How were we supposed to know?”

  43. Libturd says:


    Sell and rent a small place until owning/renting costs drop in a year or so. It’ll be the easiest money you’ll ever make. Plus that kind of gain is not taxed. :P

  44. chicagofinance says:

    Just a couple hundred K? I would mess up your living situation for that little return. I am not trying to be caustic. Moving is a pain, and losing control of your living situation is worse. Unless CA has renter rights, where once you go in there, they can’t get you out.

    My brother has a 2 year old, and their landlord in Palo Alto gave them 45 days notice to be out on 12/31. Hard a%%ed Israeli’s daughter screamed to daddy that she wanted to be back in NoCal, so the landlord cleared the decks.

    Ex says:
    January 10, 2023 at 11:17 am
    I don’t mind downsizing at this point, pocketing a couple of hundred K and feelin’ no pain. Thinking that might happen. The only thing that will stop us…? Math. Interest rates of a higher nature making a downsize move “not worthwhile” on a monthly basis.

  45. Fast Eddie says:


    The “Glen” is a “to die for” town.

    Put a 7 handle on your house just for kicks and see what happens.

  46. Ex says:

    11:27 !! yeah …only thing. We have 3 dogs. It’s tough to get people to rent to you with pets. But I totally get the Non-Taxable piece. That’ll be great if we ever pull the trigger! Maybe this spring. If we sell though, we’ll probably try to buy, but smaller without a pool & less overhead. With an eye toward a one story.

  47. Ex says:

    11:33 Agreed! I meant a couple hundred K after a purchase of another place. :)

  48. chicagofinance says:

    BBBY is a directionally correct, but noisy example. Too much idiosyncratic stuff in there. Secular decline along with a poor (lethal) strategy design. That thing was an old house with problems that was accidently set on fire and burned to the ground.

    Libturd says:
    January 10, 2023 at 11:25 am
    Did you all see how poorly Bed Bath and Beyond did this holiday season. Remember. Their bankruptcy has nothing to do with consumers not shopping there. How much did sales drop off this year compared to last? 33%! That’s a huge number.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    I saw a CCR cover band in NJ sing their local version of Chubby Mary. Gives new meaning to the phrase “rolling on the river.”

    Fast Eddie says:
    January 10, 2023 at 10:54 am
    Wear a mask to deaden the smell and sun glasses to mute the Crayola-colored walls as you view chubby Mary’s house.

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    Gives new meaning to the phrase “rolling on the river.”

    LOL. And how!

  51. leftwing says:

    Also, on BBBY don’t forget they were in trouble going into the buying season for the holidays…no supplier would extend them credit, they were basically cash-only to get inventory which is not a good position to be in when you are cash strapped, lol.

  52. Libturd says:

    Yes, there is some noise on the BBBY sales number. But I think it’s the first of many. Seeing more and more vacancies along 46 and more and more blank billboards. Look for them. Kid had party at trampoline park on Sunday morning. We left at 1pm. Costco was packed. Everything else in that complex was dead. It’s almost all restaurants now too. What a strange transition.

  53. chicagofinance says:

    The Marlboro Costco was a former multiplex. Now it is Costco, Chick-FilA, Aldi and sundry other minor stuff.

    Libturd says:
    January 10, 2023 at 11:59 am
    Yes, there is some noise on the BBBY sales number. But I think it’s the first of many. Seeing more and more vacancies along 46 and more and more blank billboards. Look for them. Kid had party at trampoline park on Sunday morning. We left at 1pm. Costco was packed. Everything else in that complex was dead. It’s almost all restaurants now too. What a strange transition.

  54. chicagofinance says:

    This strip mall was completely dead…..,-74.1195143,17z?hl=en
    First add a Jersey Mike’s, then Liquor Store, and finally a high end restaurant on the frontage building. Fresh coat of paint and the locusts descend.

  55. No One says:

    Zillow tells me that the island home I bought 2 years ago in Florida for $2m is now worth $3.4m. The Zestimate has done nothing but go up since I bought. I hear that this fall, demand has been going up because of people who lost homes in the Ft. Myers area are buying/renting where we are. So far no slowdown detectable in my area, other than that bad locations at bad prices are sitting longer. However, I think Zestimate is exaggerating and my house would be hard to sell for over $2.7m.
    NJ House I bought 13 years ago for $900k, now Zestimate is falling off the top to $1.35.
    No mortgages and no plans to sell either one, so it’s pretty irrelevant to me. For net worth estimates we mark them at purchase cost, could be back there if/when we ever sell.

  56. Juice Box says:

    Chi – re: finally a high end restaurant

    I have not been yet to Charlie’s Restaurant….Sounds like the old Charlie Brown’s but it’s not that chain it’s owned by some family…should have kept it Lincroft Inn…Anyway anything worth it there? $32 for Linguini? That cost more than eating at Il Mulino in the city.

  57. chicagofinance says:

    Same as Charlie’s Bay Head. If you are there to be seen, then you overpay for the priviledge. If you are there to dine, then waste of time. It is intentionally garbage, the point being a statement “I am wealthy enough to set money on fire”. That said, it is beautiful and a very nice version of a classic, yet modern building.

    If you want to go to a new place, try the Polo Club. Also a bit defective, but better and really enjoyable place to be. Kind of the new neighborhood place for the Casola crowd.

    Juice Box says:
    January 10, 2023 at 1:28 pm
    Chi – re: finally a high end restaurant

    I have not been yet to Charlie’s Restaurant….Sounds like the old Charlie Brown’s but it’s not that chain it’s owned by some family…should have kept it Lincroft Inn…Anyway anything worth it there? $32 for Linguini? That cost more than eating at Il Mulino in the city.

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    $32 for Linguini?

    I went with a few people to the Sear House Grill on New Year’s eve. I had the linguine with clams – $28. Four or five twisted forks later, pasta was gone. What? An eighth of a pound of pasta and a few steamed clams? I didn’t want to go, did it to make others happy. There were four of us, two couples, bill came to just under $400 with one drink apiece with the two couples splitting the dessert. Nope.

  59. Fast Eddie says:

    Hmmm… I see that O’Biden had top secret docs with info on Iran and Ukraine at a private establishment for over five years. A “staffer” just happened to “find” them on November 2nd, a few days before the election. Five years. When does the FBI raid his house to see what other gems are stashed away?

  60. Fast Eddie says:

    Met’s lose Correa to Twins.


  61. Ex says:

    Life without the IRS….discuss….

  62. No One says:

    Lose Correa?
    Surely the SAC Mets use material nonpublic information to inform their investment decisions. I guess they heard his leg might snap.
    Just when I thought the Mets franchise couldn’t get more detestable, Steve Cohen takes over and proves me wrong.
    He will make their future non-world series ring bejeweled fingers even grubbier, and the taste of their fans’ voluminous tears even sweeter.

  63. Juice Box says:

    Taxes like death are inescapable unless you are very rich then you can at least delay the
    inevitable by buying yourself a new heart or liver or keeping more of your money by offshoring your bank account and registering assets in shell companies. The IRS was never hiring 87,000 new agents, at most they could have doubled enforcement over 10 years, today it is comprised of about 21,866 employees. That would be 8,321 Revenue Agents, 8,758 Tax Examiners, 2,783 Revenue Officers and their armed cops of about 2,004 Special Agents who generally go after the real baddies like drug dealers etc. The rest of the IRS’s massive staff are paper pushers, customer service or heck janitors that don’t look at taxes or do audits.

    What should be done is change the tax laws to make it tougher to hide income, but it would need to happen everywhere not just the USA, as shell companies with hidden owners are registered anywhere and everywhere and banks onshore and offshore are happy to take their business. For 2021 there were 850 criminal tax evasion prosecutions recommended from the IRS to the DOJ..So that is less than one criminal caught per IRS examiner etc per year. Best they can do by doubling staff is what a few hundred more?

    Nobody in Congress has been able to rethink the tax system and get laws passed to be fair and equitable because it was never meant to be and never will be as long as there are other jurisdictions and bank secrecy laws.

  64. No One says:

    Anyone know how much NJ has bulked up their tax team? I heard from my accountant that they have in the past been fairly lazy, but with wealthy people fleeing the state, or pretending to, they may be hiring to try to claw back more taxes.

  65. Juice Box says:

    The Giants balked first after Correa’s physical with their Docs. What are the odds are on that metal plate on his fibula coming lose while sliding into home? Metal implants apparently can and do break due to repetitive cycles of stress, like working out running all the time will cause metal fatigue or loosening etc a scan the Docs did might even show it.

    Steve Cohen may be a greedy grubber but Scott Boras wanted a 12 year deal with no concessions on a guy who’s leg may go flippity flop in a few years down the road?

  66. Fabius Maximus says:

    I have finally found the GOPs logic for their new rules package.

    Cut the nuts off their leader to make him speaker in name only.

    Chip Roy: So it’s time right now for the house majority to do our job and we’re going to have stop funding a DHS that refuses to secure the border

    CBO score : GOP IRS funding bill would reduce spending by $71.5B and reduce revenue by $185.8B. Net deficit increase of $114B.

  67. Libturd says:

    Any deal over 5 year is bad for a club. In nearly all of these long-term contracts, the player ends up losing his mojo and then you get stuck having to pay (and play) an aging mediocre-at-best player instead of paying some rookie, with the same skills 1/100th of what you would be paying your former uberplayer. Worse yet, the player becomes too shitty to play, and you still have to pay him. Or you trade him to the A’s or Royals for their lousy player at that position and you still have to pay 90% of his contract. I’m actually glad Correa didn’t end up a Met. And yes NoOne, it’s no fun being a fan of any team that tries to buy a championship. I think I liked it better when the Yankees choked in the post-season every year by themselves.

  68. leftwing says:

    “Nobody in Congress has been able to rethink the tax system and get laws passed to be fair and equitable because it was never meant to be and never will be as long as there are other jurisdictions and bank secrecy laws.”

    I think it’s less about other jurisdictions’ secrecy and more that people don’t want their money forcibly taken, especially for wasteful projects or funding with which they don’t agree.

    Just go to a flat tax. Never happen.

  69. joyce says:

    Sure, but even if we went to a flat tax, people would still avoid it if the tax system had the giant workarounds it currently has.

  70. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is this Cathie’s fault too? People are lemmings. That’s how the wolves make money over and over off these people. I’m so smart. I’m running to safety. (Nerd voice).

    “Think about how fucking ridiculous it is that $cat is at ALL TIME HIGH. +60% in 12 weeks”

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m tempted to start DCA back into DNA starting tomorrow. Don’t know how much insider selling is left, but I am smart enough to know that’s the only reason these cheap shares are available. Most people will not be selling at these levels. The supply is from insiders. Now do you have the balls to buy when insiders are selling at the low? Think hold my nose and jump in tomorrow. Pray for me.

  72. Ex says:

    Fourteen years ago, Michael Bordenaro moved to South Florida and never looked back.

    But the Miami Beach real-estate agent told Insider that between 40% and 50% of his buyers turn around and move out of Florida a few years after relocating there. More transplants grow disillusioned with the local lifestyle than you’d expect, added Bordenaro, a 35-year-old from Illinois.

    “So many people come for a week or two on vacation, and they think their life is going to be like that every day,” he said.

    But it’s not all Disney and the beach, Bordenaro cautioned. He added that newcomers often don’t consider important factors before making the jump — from oppressive heat to abysmal salaries.

    His words of warning, which he also captures alongside other real-estate analyses almost daily in video for 57,700 YouTube subscribers, come as Florida — which saw a large jump in population during the pandemic — shows no signs of slowing in growth. Florida’s population grew to over 22 million people from July 2021 to July 2022, according to Census Bureau data.

    Bordenaro told Insider the biggest red flags people should know about before they load their U-Hauls.

    Severe weather
    Florida transplants don’t often anticipate just how severe the hurricanes — and their damage to property — can be. The state’s oppressive, almost year-round heat and humidity are another issue.

    “People don’t expect this heat for this long,” Bordenaro said. “There’s no relief. It’s hot 24/7, seven months a year.”

    Especially after the devastation caused by Hurricane Ian in September 2022, Bordenaro expects more movers to second-guess their move to Florida.

    “When people see that, that should be an eye opener,” he said. “That can happen where you live.”

    Low-paying jobs
    Wages in Florida are significantly lower than in other states, which rankles locals and newcomers alike.

    “Jobs in Florida pay less than they do in other places for the same job,” Bordenaro said.

    Because Florida imposes no state income tax, he said, employers may feel like they can pay staff less since workers take home more of their paycheck.

    In May 2022, CBS News named Florida the “least affordable” place to live in the county. Also, WTXL, the ABC affiliate in Tallahassee, named Florida one of America’s least affordable states based on a 2019 study by that found that the cost of living was more expensive than wages.

    “Even though the pay has gone up a little bit, it’s definitely not keeping up with what it costs to live in Miami, which is the biggest problem,” Bordenaro said.

    Exorbitant home prices and rents
    The cost of real estate in the state is another tough pill to swallow, Bordenaro said. Florida housing is so expensive at the moment that “it’s concerning,” he added. “It’s an alarm sign.”

    “The appreciation rates that we’ve seen in South Florida have been much higher than the national average,” Bordenaro said. “In some areas, it went up 20% per year over the past couple of years.”

    Take the median sale prices for homes in Miami-Dade County in November 2022, the most recent month for which data is available. They jumped nearly 16% year-over-year to $475,000, according to The price growth is fueled by millennial snowbirds, remote workers, and retirees, who are moving south and breaking area real-estate records.

    Newcomers moving to Florida have also been shocked at property tax bills that are higher than they expected, Insider’s Kelsey Neubauer reported.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good luck with inflation. And I promise teachers unions will be coming soon.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lemmings to the slaughter…grass is always greener, huh?

    I tried to help people from making these dumb moves, but hey, they think jersey is chit like 3b. You are right, jersey sucks, please move….is the right approach.

    Ex says:
    January 10, 2023 at 7:28 pm
    Fourteen years ago, Michael Bordenaro moved to South Florida and never looked back.

    But the Miami Beach real-estate agent told Insider that between 40% and 50% of his buyers turn around and move out of Florida a few years after relocating there. More transplants grow disillusioned with the local lifestyle than you’d expect, added Bordenaro, a 35-year-old from Illinois.

  75. The Great Punishment says:

    When you live in an economy like north jersey and you complain about how much it sucks? Cry about affordability? Well, realize quickly that you belong with pre-k in some affordable location in the south. In the land of opportunities, you are crying about affordability? You deserve what you get.

    Now go move to a cheaper location that you think will make your life easier instead of busting your ass. Jersey…land of the strong!

  76. 3b says:

    Ex: You would think people would do their homework before moving. So, according to this article some people move to Florida, and don’t understand it’s hot and humid most of the year, they don’t know what the property taxes are , and don’t realize salaries are low. Are we to believe they know none of this until they move there??

  77. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You guys cry about murphy…all he has done is grown and develop this state’s economy. True story. Keep hating. What exactly did fat ass do with our economy for 8 years? Flush it down the drain.

    “It’s also time to remove outdated licensing and operating restrictions on our craft breweries, distilleries, and wineries, as people across our country flock to New Jersey to enjoy one of the best and most diverse restaurant scenes of any state.


  78. Grim says:

    Bam, thank you Murph.

  79. PumpkinFace says:

    What did you do to help?

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 10, 2023 at 7:34 pm

    I tried to help people from making these dumb moves

  80. Ex says:

    7:40 when i was there it was just as described, but it was cheap!
    The limited job opportunities were the biggest drawback.
    If you were a working stiff and stuck in an office it was a far cry from
    being a student or tourist! Not to mention a retiree. Imagine dragging
    your sorry ass into the office while everyone else is going to the beach.

  81. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This makes writing skill irrelevant. Moving closer to a world where the only thing valuable are ideas. Everything else can be done cheaper and more effectively by AI.

    “From @Breakingviews: Microsoft is mulling a $10 billion investment in the maker of the popular AI program ChatGPT. @rob_cyran and @KarenKKwok explain that even if the odds are stacked against the startup, Microsoft will do well $MSFT”

  82. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chatai response for 3b

    Why is north jersey special?

    North Jersey, also known as North New Jersey, is an area in the northern region of the state of New Jersey in the United States. There are several reasons why living in North Jersey can be considered special. Some of these include:

    Proximity to New York City: North Jersey is located just across the Hudson River from New York City, which means that residents have easy access to all that the city has to offer, including world-class dining, shopping, entertainment, and cultural events.
    Natural Beauty: North Jersey is home to many parks and recreational areas, such as the Great Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, the Passaic River, and the Ramapo Mountains, which offer opportunities for hiking, camping, and other outdoor activities.
    Diversity: North Jersey is a melting pot of different cultures and backgrounds, with a diverse population that includes people from all over the world. This diversity brings a rich tapestry of cultures and customs to the area.
    History: North Jersey has a rich history and is home to many historical sites and landmarks such as Thomas Edison’s laboratory and the George Washington Bridge.
    Economic opportunities: There are many jobs and business opportunities available in North Jersey, particularly in the healthcare, finance, and technology sectors.
    Good school district and higher education opportunity with Rutgers University and others.
    These are just a few examples of why living in North Jersey can be special. Many people appreciate the area for its unique combination of urban and suburban living, as well as its proximity to New York City.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Again, writing papers is dead. This will kill it.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Moving to a new state or region can be a big decision and it’s important to consider the pros and cons before making a move. While Florida has many appealing aspects, such as its warm weather, beautiful beaches, and vibrant culture, there are also some potential drawbacks to consider. Some of the reasons why moving to Florida may be a bad move for some people include:

    High humidity: Florida can be quite humid in the summer months, which can make it feel very hot and uncomfortable.
    Storms: Florida is prone to storms and hurricanes, which can cause damage to property and disrupt daily life. This may be a concern for people who live in coastal areas or who are worried about property damage.
    Crowds: Florida is a popular tourist destination, which means that some areas of the state can be quite crowded, particularly during the peak tourist season.
    Cost of living: While Florida has a lower state income tax than some other states, the cost of living can be higher than other regions. Property taxes and insurance are usually higher.
    Traffic: Some cities in Florida, such as Miami and Orlando, have heavy traffic and congestion, which can make commuting difficult.
    Limited work opportunity: There are fewer job opportunities in Florida when compared to states such as California or New York, especially in certain industries.
    Risk of natural disasters: Floridas geographical location and climatological conditions are a risk to the residents, especially with threat of hurricanes, flooding, and wildfires.
    Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to move to Florida will depend on a person’s individual circumstances and priorities. It’s important to weigh the pros and cons carefully and conduct your own research before making a decision.

  85. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Is wayne, nj nice?

    Wayne is a town located in Passaic County, New Jersey, United States. From my knowledge cut off, it has a population of about 55,000. It’s considered a suburb of New York City and is located about 20 miles northwest of Manhattan.

    Overall, Wayne is a nice community that offers a variety of amenities and opportunities to residents. Some of the things that people appreciate about living in Wayne include:

    Good schools: Wayne has a strong public school system, with several highly rated schools and a variety of educational programs available to students.
    Shopping: Wayne is home to the Willowbrook Mall, which is a large shopping center that features a variety of retailers, dining options, and entertainment options.
    Parks and recreation: Wayne has several parks and recreational areas, such as High Mountain Park, that provide opportunities for outdoor activities such as hiking, picnicking, and sports.
    Transportation: Wayne has a well-connected transportation system, including commuter trains and buses that provide easy access to New York City and other nearby towns.
    Diverse Community: Wayne have a diverse population, which can bring a wide variety of culture, and great food options.
    While Wayne has many positive aspects, like any other places, it also has some drawbacks that can vary by person. Some people may find the area to be crowded or expensive to live. Keep in mind that my knowledge cut off is 2021 and any information related to it should be updated and researched by yourself.

  86. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Best investment strategy?

    There are many different investment strategies, and what is considered the “best” will depend on an individual’s goals, risk tolerance, and investment time horizon. However, some popular and effective investment strategies include:

    Diversification: Diversifying your investments across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, can help reduce your overall risk and increase the likelihood of achieving your investment goals.
    Long-term investing: Investing for the long-term, usually at least five to ten years, has been historically proven to yield better returns than short-term trading.
    Index funds and ETFs: Investing in low-cost, passively managed index funds and ETFs can be a cost-effective way to gain exposure to the market and achieve diversification.
    Rebalancing: Rebalancing your portfolio periodically ensures that you maintain your desired asset allocation, and can help keep risk in check, buying low and selling high.
    Dollar-cost averaging: Investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the price of the investment, can help reduce the impact of volatility on your portfolio.
    Tax-loss harvesting: Selling losing investments to offset capital gains and reduce the taxes on your investment income.
    It’s important to remember that there are no guarantees in investing and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s also important to consult with a professional such as a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    It’s crucial to have a thorough understanding of your financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, as well as a basic knowledge about the different types of investments available, in order to determine the best investment strategy for you.

  87. Fabius Maximus says:

    writing papers is dead. This will kill it.

    NY Schools just banned ChatGPT.
    There are now services that can check if the text is AI generated. I assume it is AI based so there is some great irony there.

  88. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Murphy is just awful…

    “There’s no other way to put it – our liquor licensing regime is antiquated and confusing, dating back to Prohibition.

    Today, I propose that we expand the number of available licenses and provide a targeted tax credit to support existing license holders.


  89. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Wayne has a strong public school system, with several highly rated schools ”

    My kid had a sports match at Wayne Hills last week. We kicked their a$$ Nice school. It reminds me of my part of Bergen Co. You can only get to it by miles of 2 lane local roads.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Damn, that was quick. Too bad no stopping it now. Idiocracy is coming. Future humans will have ai and robots doing all the basic tasks for them. Unless they strive to think at a higher level, they will turn into nothing more than a consumption machine sitting on the couch swiping a screen until they die. #WFHRULES

  91. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Bam, thank you Murph.”

    I was walking past the manager in the Supermarket tonight. I only needed a few things and asked him where all the hand baskets went. He said that when the bag ban came in, customers who forgot their bags would take the basket to their car and just drive home with it. He lost so many it was not worth it to replace them

  92. The Great Pumpkin says:


    How lazy can you be that you can’t use reusable bags…you have to steal the hand basket. Total losers. Aka lemmings. I don’t feel bad whatsoever profiting off these losers.

  93. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The 20’s is the decade of AI and Biology innovation 🤖🧬

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Anyone realize $META is up 50% from November?

    Lefty, should have listened to your gut and just went hard. 50% in this environment is like 200%.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Now how many other beat to chit stocks are out there? I am buying DNA. Give me what no one wants in the short-term. Easy money.

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