From NJ.com:
Companies are flocking back to the U.S. Let’s get them to move here.
It’s the time of year when many people make New Year’s resolutions. Some people might go on a diet, or start working out. New Jersey needs to do both for the sake of our economy before it is too late.
New Jersey’s high taxes are taking away from people, and, as a result, taking resources away from economic growth. The Garden State’s most consistent economic rating is ‘nation’s worst business environment’ and ‘dead last for fiscal health.’
We are at a critical stage in the global economy where many businesses will want to move back to the U.S. to avoid supply chain problems that occurred during and after the pandemic. New Jersey isn’t a destination for them, but it can be if we make simple changes.
First and foremost is gradually lowering our nation-high tax rate – and globally high if you consider the national tax on top of it – on businesses to 2.5%, which would be among the lowest in the nation. Pennsylvania is lowering its corporate tax rate to 5%. They are gearing up to take our businesses and the businesses that want to increase their domestic presence.
If you have doubts that lowering the corporate business tax to 2.5% will work, I have evidence that it does.
In 2013, North Carolina started gradually cutting its corporate business tax to that low rate. Every time revenue went up, the tax would lower a proportionate amount. That’s right, they cut their tax and revenue increased — which allowed North Carolina to cut its tax more and get more revenue out of it.
The state received more revenue because after cutting its business tax, it led the nation in economic growth for three years. More jobs, better pay, lower unemployment, and all-around economic growth.
Despite the efforts of the New Jersey Economic Development Authority, our state continues to be the worst state in the nation for business. I support the EDA, tax credits are a useful tool; but we need to help every business, not just those the government thinks are worthy. That should be New Jersey’s New Year’s resolution.
first
2
Will never happen. Jersey is run for the wealthy and government employees.
It will never happen.
NJ Business income Tax receipts for 2022.
Corporation Business Tax (CBT) $5.2 Billion
Business Alternative Income Tax $3.4 Billion
NJ Budget FY 2022 is $44.8 billion, 19% funded by Business income taxes.
North Carolina’s Budget for a Sate with a bigger population is only 28 Billion.
Someone mentioned Bitcoin yesterday. price is back up again to $21,000
Yes it’s priced in US Dollars but the vast majority of the trades are on Binance. We have no idea what kind of pump and dump schemes the Asians traders are up to. Well yes we do, it’s pump and dump rinse and repeat all over again. How high will it go this time? Well not much NEW USD coming in, very few US companies left to hold your money/coin without some kind of rehypothecation scam or crap coin swapping loaning washing scam. US retail Coinbase is only about 2.56% of the Bitcoin trades these days good ole USD for Bitcoin. Watch out for the tide will go out quicker this time….
“Do you really think that ex-VPs (or ex-presidents, for that matter) personally go through all the boxes of documents they take with them when they leave office?”
So the threshold for the Chief Executive of the United States with regard to national secrets is lower than the standard applied to your run-of-the-mill investment banking Managing Director with regard to confidential corporate information? That’s your argument?
“DOJ doesn’t prosecute people who accidentally mishandle classified docs (that happens all the time) only people who intentionally mishandle classified docs.”
The two situations differ but not in Biden’s favor…Trump had the documents, FBI knew he had the documents, with a recommendation from the FBI he secured them in his residence, and provided camera security. He was fighting over who had legal right to documents everyone knew existed with the location known.
Biden on the other hand claims, and incredulously continues to claim as defense, that he had no idea these documents existed and he had no idea where they were (as we all know now in fact sitting next to paint cans in a garage for seven years).
Which is worse? dear Lord, Biden by far…
It is analogous to a custody fight over Thanksgiving…in Trump’s case one parent takes the kids when he may not be the one who is supposed to have them but everyone knows where they are and are fighting about it….In Biden’s case, well, he just lost the fucking kids in late November and wasn’t even aware he had them….
10Y 343. WTF?!
Man, I f/ed up not buying DNA last week at 1.50. Lower this goes, the higher DNA goes.
Chicago says:
January 18, 2023 at 8:40 am
10Y 343. WTF?!
Quick market commentary from yesterday’s postings prompted by a comment to me from someone I respect…
The comment to me, basically, is there can be a fatal flaw anytime you say that a [dramatic] event ought to/will occur ‘but I can’t time it’. Pick a couple events, let’s say market down 20% or Fed getting inflation in the 2s. The thought is this…while the event may very well occur and by definition some time in the future [as we “can not predict the timing”] the fact is that there can be so many intervening events as to render the original prediction void.
The point being by extending the timeframe for an uncertain event to occur further into the future we may think we are removing risk and increasing probability while instead the fact of other intervening events occurring in our selected timeframe actually increases the risk and reduces the probability of our prediction.
I found that very interesting and my thought coming from it is that the market, today, may be exactly where it needs to be…I know that may be heresy (and I still do expect some pullback) but humor me here….last Spring it made perfect sense to predict a huge downdraft…why? Because *at that time* the facts on the ground were highly uncertain and unknowable…inflation increasing with no visible moderation, Fed hiking outside of expectations and with uncertain duration, corporate earnings uncertainty….
What have we done since then? We are through peak inflation, honestly, no serious investor is even discussing rising inflation as a major investment criterion. We have as high a level of certainty with the Fed as we’ve had in the last two years…both amplitude (50 vs 25 and not 75 or 100) and duration….and we are further through earnings with the above backdrops at this time….
Since we’ve removed or at the very least seriously mitigated two of three major uncertainties why shouldn’t the market be up? Yes, earnings ‘uncertainty’ [more on that in a bit]
Look at the recent timeline of those ‘intervening’ events that had not occurred yet last year….the ‘base line’ flight path of CPI, the return of $18T of sovereign debt to positive rates, etc…the market runs up as certainty becomes re-introduced…looking ahead we all know at some point soon that inflation will drop beneath FFR…what do we believe markets will do then? Even if everyone ‘knows’ that the Fed 18 months out wants to be at 2% inflation and that the market ‘would be’ overvalued based on earnings?
The point is this…use caution investing today by projecting pain in the future without factoring in intervening events that create more certainty…only question is today, with what we know now right now [and maybe more importantly what we don’t know], are we fairly priced at a 20 VIX and 4000 SPX?
Even if, no, especially if we ‘know’ the Fed wants 2% and earnings are overvalued use extreme caution forecasting medium term downdrafts without accounting for intervening events…..you may very likely be ‘correct’ on the longer term event [Fed to 2, earnings overvalued] but it may not matter at all to the market *at that future time*….
Please appreciate I am not saying ‘the market will remain overvalued, deal with it’. I am saying that *by the time* your future event occurs it may very well not matter to an honest valuation of the market at that future time….
Let’s get through this earnings season but unless it is bust I’m resetting my expectations…2800, my downside, is all but off the table for me.
FWIW. Today’s random electrical impulses from the base of the brainstem….
Lots of EV talk yesterday. Just wanted to add that in NJ we have the Charge Up NJ cash rebate, which until the end of last year applied to PHEV’s and BEV’s, but prospectively will apply to BEV’s with MSRP < $55K only. Get up to a $2,500 check.
Correcting: This used to be a check sent to your house ost sale, I got $5K in 2020, but is now a point of sale program… woooomp, woooomp. Which means it's subject to dealer bs three card monty game.
left-
That’s an interesting legal theory you got there! It bears no resemblance to the facts or the law, but it’s interesting.
To use your “custody battle” analogy, when the judge has to send the sheriff to your house to forcibly remove the kid and take him back to his mom, it ain’t a good sign.
But without all the facts, we’re all just speculating, so I’m just going to let the special counsels do their jobs.
*CITIGROUP CUTS 2023 GLOBAL RECESSION ODDS TO 30% FROM 50%
10Y 339
No joking…… re-fi’s on the table for some.
You are a base head…..
“the ‘base line’ flight path of CPI”
What if Fed goes 50 in two weeks? I am really thinking they should, but won’t….. I think headline inflation may be at risk of re-igniting with the simulation of rates, and reopening of China on energy. That said, if we go through next week clean, then we are clear until May……
Never thought my cheap ass bond buying in November would prove to be juicy rates as opposed to my thought at the time as just an appetizer…..
“FWIW. Today’s random electrical impulses from the base of the brainstem….”
stimulation from
What if Fed goes 50 in two weeks? I am really thinking they should, but won’t….
If they did and called it out as a one-and-done, wonder if we’d see a face-ripping rally.
We are at cruising altitude for now, as the M2 money supply just went to zero…It’s a new phenomenon too as it has never really gone to zero.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
What happens when you pump the brakes too much?
M2 now begins to decline….and with it the velocity of money aka fewer transactions and a real pullback occurs in GDP.
There is quite a bit of dollar deposits. Fed’s reverse repo facility hit a record $2.5 trillion last month. Fed says it is supposed to fall but when they are paying banks interest rate on reserve balances at 4.4.% for parking your money why would the banks begin to take risks of actually loaning money? Fed is losing billion on this and well they don’t care either, they need to tame inflation. I don’t think we are there yet small pullbacks like today in the PPI only mean we are still a long way from 2% inflation.
“That’s an interesting legal theory you got there! It bears no resemblance to the facts or the law, but it’s interesting.”
No my friend, your legal theory is the flawed one. Possession of classified materials is not permissible when not authorized. Period…The Biden response of “oh I wasn’t aware but I stopped once I knew” is a joke…try that next time you’re pulled over at 85mph…’sorry officer, I wasn’t aware but I have stopped and won’t do it again’. You were still speeding….
Re: Trump the legal case may stumble around whether the ‘classified’ documents were still classified. Legal analysis I’ve read is that a prosecution there is complicated by the the ability under US Code for a President to declassify but no stated methodology under which that occurs…for Biden it’s pretty clear…you have that box, you have an issue….
“To use your “custody battle” analogy, when the judge has to send the sheriff to your house to forcibly remove the kid and take him back to his mom, it ain’t a good sign.”
On this comment you are reinforcing my point….no one [Court] would send that sheriff in that instance…Courts would say the kid is safe and location known, sort it out through a filing. That is what was occurring in DJT case which is exactly what I was saying…fight custody [of the documents in this case] out in Court which is exactly what they are doing now…
My only point, which still stands, is that Biden’s ‘defense’ and situation on a relative basis is so much worse than DJT’s….
DJT took the kids when maybe he shouldn’t have had them, still TBD; Joe just flat out lost the kids…..
The O’Biden administration did the right thing… revealing the documents… two months after they were found… because they got caught. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have done the right thing. How can they be so irresponsible!!
Because let’s be honest, the existence of these docs stacked next to the lawn mower in a garage is a scandal in itself. I guess the 10% for the big guy was the pipeline of laundry coming from China and disguised as $50,000 per month of rent from Hunter as he took another hit from the pipe. Who makes 50K per month while taking selfies with hookers? And who charges their kid 50K per month to live in a house that his family owns? Hmmm…
And what about that Chinese spy, JiaQi “Jackie” Bao? The person that is linked to the family while both the president’s brother, James, and Hunter accrued $4.8 million from a Chinese government-linked energy company? Hmmm….
She was born in America, went to China to a university, the same university that has a reputation for developing spies.
She graduated, went to work for the CCP, moved back to the United States and then started working for… (drum roll)… Hunter O’Biden!!
Oh, by the way, when does Mueller release those Trump/Russian collusion findings?
Last thing the Fed wants is a rip roaring rally.
3b,
They only care about bank profits and consumer sentiment. “Look at how great everything is but don’t peek behind curtain” Soft landing front page on yahoo. Inflation is secondary concern and mostly lip service. The market says 6% inflation in now ok and Fed should lower rates. That is all that matters. They will bend to Oz Powell to their will. He is a lapdog.
Fed actually has cover for an even larger increase. Unemployment is at 3.5%.Powell’s folks want between 1-2 million layoffs this year. That should suck enough demand from the economy to tame inflation.
CPI for all items fell only 0.1% in December mostly due to a gasoline price decrease. Everything else is still going up and up too much. A big increase is simply not out of the question.
I agree with everything Chi/Juice/Left and 3B just said on the FED. Even TA is getting close to calling this the bottom. But a market rally here would cause a problem with wage growth which would cause inflationary pressure, which is why Chi (and I) agree that another 50 pointer would be the correct medicine for this sick economy. We’ll see what kind of balls Powell has soon enough.
Now about earnings. The next two days reveal A LOT about what to expect from earnings (outside of the banks which should do well in a rising rate cycle). From today’s CWS:
Tomorrow, for example, we’ll get the retail sales report for December. This is obviously the biggie as it covers the all-important holiday shopping season.
I’m also curious to see the retail sales report because the last few reports haven’t been very strong. Consumers are clearly feeling stretched. The report for November showed a drop of 0.6%, and Wall Street expects to see a drop of 1% for December. This is connected to the weak wage growth we’ve seen in the recent jobs reports.
Also tomorrow, we’ll get the report on industrial production. Much like retail sales, industrial production hasn’t been so great lately. The last report showed a drop of 0.2%. For tomorrow, Wall Street expects a drop of 0.1%. These aren’t awful numbers, but they underscore that the economy is not in top shape.
We’ll also get the key housing reports. That sector has been struggling lately. On Thursday, the report on housing starts is due out. Then on Friday we’ll get the report on existing-home sales. I’m not expecting good news here.
The non-bank earnings will also start to come in. On Thursday, we’re going to get earnings reports from Procter & Gamble, Fastenal and Netflix.
One year ago, Netflix made $1.33 per share for Q4 of 2021. This time, Wall Street expects earnings of 44 cents per share. Three months ago, Wall Street had been expecting $1.12 per share for Q4. Slash, slash, beat.
Investing wise, I wouldn’t do a damn thing new until at least Friday. Otherwise, you are just gambling.
Bystander: We shall see. If that’s the case then we start all over again.
You have to remember Powell may feel the need to prove he is right this time, he is bound to face hostile congressional hearings again this year as he got it so wrong when he called inflation transitory. He is only in year one of his second term, he has promised congress and well everyone else to tame inflation. It has not happened yet. I have a feeling he wants to finish out his term and to do that he will need to tame inflation.
Juice,
It is a show. Fake outrage. How could Yellen and Powell get it wrong? Our constituents are really hurting. This is unacceptable. Behind the scenes – “good job keeping banks and wealthy constituents happy and the stock market up. We are all making a killing on our insider info deals and asset inflation. Just remember – when it explodes, print trillions more and set rates to zero”
MSFT –> 10,000 layoffs
Powell COVID+
“Possession of classified materials is not permissible when not authorized. ”
But it is only a crime when it’s done “willfully and knowingly”- that’s the way the relevant laws read. No evidence of that (right now) in Biden’s case.
“On this comment you are reinforcing my point….no one [Court] would send that sheriff in that instance…”
And yet, in Trumps case, the court thought that there was sufficient evidence of a crime to issue a search warrant on an ex-president (first time in US history). I am guessing that that search warrant application had to pass a pretty high bar to get a judge to sign off on it.
So as it stands right now, there is only one legal ruling that supports the idea that one of these guys may have commited a crime- and that’s against Trump.
That may change in the future, but that’s where we stand now.
And if either one does eventually get charged with a crime, it won’t be for simply possessing those docs- it’s going to be for what they did after they learned they had them (ie, obstruction).
Buckle Up!!
Personally,
This classified document mess is yesterday’s, too much time spent golfing mess. It’s really a nothingburger.
And Biden looks the complete fool for calling Trump out on it and then getting caught doing the same thing.
If it is proven that these materials were intentionally used in an illegal manner, then you might have a story worth paying attention to.
https://patch.com/new-jersey/wayne/wayne-mayor-pulls-pay-raise-request-after-public-backlash-report?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alert
“U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in December, pulled down by declines in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a weaker growth path heading into 2023.”
As predicted.
As I have mentioned previously about the mishandled government top secret ark of the covenant documents, everyone else will get thrown under the bus first.
The Feds have already begun interviewing Biden’s aides when he was VP to narrow down who did it and removed the documents. Remember caught lying is a federal offence too as the coverup is always worse than the crime.
My understanding is the US Attorney handling it up and quit and Garland had to hire a new Special Prosecutor. Very telling that is, those interviews may have uncovered something about why the documents were found next to the lawn mower and the corvette. Something like “Joe told me to take this box to his house put them in his garage”. I have my doubts as to whether anyone will fall on the sword here and lie for Sleepy Joe. False Statement Charges under 18 USC Section 1001 means up to 5 years in prison.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/multiple-biden-aides-interviewed-federal-law-enforcement-classified-do-rcna65526
The producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% last month, the most since April 2020, and was up 6.2% from a year earlier, Labor Department data showed Wednesday. The median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the index to fall 0.1% from a month earlier and rise 6.8% from December 2021.
The monthly decline was driven by a plunge in goods prices, notably energy and food. Excluding those components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.1% in December and 5.5% from a year earlier.
—————————
Core PPI is positive two months in a row. If you haven’t noticed, with China getting back online, fuel costs are moving up again. Boom. Another major headwind for January’s report in February. This inflation is far from under control. Housing and cars will make the number look better than it is.
High bar?
Guess you haven’t encountered many judges.
A judge is a lazy lawyer that sucked at litigation so instead sucksthe government teet.
“And yet, in Trumps case, the court thought that there was sufficient evidence of a crime to issue a search warrant on an ex-president (first time in US history). I am guessing that that search warrant application had to pass a pretty high bar to get a judge to sign off on it.”
Good cop, bad cop.
Neither brain dead Biden or Orange head is going to spend one minute in prison.
It’s all just a show, and you are the audience.
Ticketmaster is laughing at you, all the way to the bank.
You guys remember when we learned Trump got Covid? Good times! What a collective breath holding moment, eh? It’s a non event now. Paxlovid and you’re jogging in a few days.
OC1, not going to go deep into debate as you occupy the same political orbit as Fab but let’s stipulate that lying to the Feds [Biden] or obstruction [DJT] don’t really count…those are like ‘resisting arrest’, the crime you’re charged with when the the government loses on the underlying. For either one of these assholes let’s limit it to the actual crime on the docs.
Neither one is going to get hit…DJT will avoid based on lack of declassification process clarity. Biden on willful or someone else will step up.
My main point is that Biden’s defense (and defenders) look like total fools not because he got caught doing essentially the same thing as DJT but because he and their defense boils down to “I am so fucking stupid I didn’t look in that box lying in the garage for seven years so please let me off.”
Biden isn’t going to prison
Trump isn’t going to prison.
A teenager eating a hamburger will be shot 4 times by a trigger happy cop.
All of these are facts.
The teen had four bullets removed from his body in the hospital and one remains lodged near his heart for now, his mother said. The teen’s mother, Victoria Casarez, said Cantu was wounded in his stomach, diaphragm, lungs, liver and arm. His father said he had to be cut from the middle of his chest to his stomach at the hospital.
chi, regarding base line, I just follow the numbers…I’ve been pretty hardcore on vol for about maybe five years now, wish longer….it was amazing to literally watch vol drain from the market – speed and amount – around these relatively ‘minor’ events. VIX at 20 and indices kissing the 200 day around 3960? Doesn’t feel right….
lib, I am specifically not saying we bottomed…I’m convinced we go lower. But, not nearly to the degree I have previously stated. Earnings would absolutely have to blow up to get us to 2800. We’ve moved beyond that….
On the Fed, discussion here demonstrates the point…last Spring the ‘spread’ on Fed hikes by serious people over a 32 day period starting at the beginning of the summer was anywhere from 125 total (75+50) to 250 total (125+125)…look now….we’re talking about 50 v 25 being a big deal and basically everyone expects 75 bps whether 3×25 or 50+25 over three months…much narrower range, uncertainty removed from market….
“Investing wise, I wouldn’t do a damn thing new until at least Friday. Otherwise, you are just gambling.”
Posted here I shorted UAL last week at 51.47, added in the first ten minutes or so, going to pull the trigger on closing half right now at 49.21…hold my seat at the table ;)
This is the way….seems like it to me. Things can change quickly though…
“lib, I am specifically not saying we bottomed…I’m convinced we go lower. But, not nearly to the degree I have previously stated. Earnings would absolutely have to blow up to get us to 2800. We’ve moved beyond that…”
Best Santos story yet…
https://washingtonpress.com/2023/01/18/questioning-did-a-drag-queen-just-reveal-a-george-santos-newest-alias1/
https://www.nj.com/business/2023/01/netflix-private-jet-flight-attendant-job-heres-how-to-land-the-role-that-pays-up-to-385k.html
We’ll see. This does feel like a slow moving collapse. For whatever reason. Still watching the data like a hawk. Core PPI at 5.5% is not going to do it, no matter how much the financial news pundits continue to wishcast better days. I suppose we’ll have to settle to for seeing the current economy differently.
I think inflation combined with the increases in interest rates is really going to curtail spending. It’s just going to take some time. Could it move sideways from here for a long while? I guess. But until the analysts stop lowering EPS estimates quarter after quarter after quarter so they can say fidgetco met analysts estimates every quarter, I think we go quite lower. Earnings leads stock price. We got our P/E compression. Now we’ll see stock prices lower on valuation alone.
Keep a close eye on individual debt stress. It takes a while to happen. Same with the housing price drops.
Old realtor,
Blatantly lying does not get a Republican into trouble. But, dress like a woman and they’ll hang you. There goes his appointment to the armed service committee. Or is that her appointment? God forbid he’s ever read to kids.
HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q3 2022)
DOWNLOADS
Household Debt Rises to $16.51 Trillion on Higher Mortgage, Credit Card Balances
Total household debt rose by $351 billion, or 2.2 percent, to reach $16.51 trillion in the third quarter of 2022, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—climbed by $282 billion and stood at $11.67 trillion at the end of September. The 15 percent year-over-year increase in credit card balances marked the largest in more than twenty years. The share of current debt transitioning into delinquency increased for nearly all debt types, following two years of historically low delinquency transitions.
Interesting, anecdote.
Had a supplier call to inquire if I was interested in some available inventory.
Told him that at current prices, we just weren’t in a position to stockpile. In fact, I’d made a few purchases from a competitor more recently, who had a better price.
Immediately came back with a 15% discount, completely negating the price increase over the last year.
Still declined, he groaned.
Well, I bought bread and seltzer on sale at SR yesterday and it was first time actually as low as pre-pandemic price. $1.77 soft wheat loaf and $.60 per Polar bottle. For almost two years ‘a sale’ was $2.50 loaf and $1 a bottle. Regular price – they are still 60% higher than pre-pandemic.
Pro-tip at SR. If you go to CS desk, they can load every digital coupon on your card rather than logging in manually.
Nice anecdata grim. Appreciated.
“Core PPI at 5.5% is not going to do it…I suppose we’ll have to settle to for seeing the current economy differently.” See my much chi maligned base line. It is certain YoY is declining, you can actually plot future reports out. No One is looking at yesterday’s report.
“I think inflation combined with the increases in interest rates is really going to curtail spending. It’s just going to take some time.”
I’m confused…one post it’s TA says the market is bottoming, above sounds all gloom and doom again. Where you at brother?
On Santos, I love the gays…so totally uninhibited…not the underlying state of being gay, but how it seems to color and flow through many aspects of otherwise normal life…Armchair, internet psychology here but I’m guessing since so many had to live a lie their grounding in what ‘truths’ are socially acceptable is totally re-centered…when you’re closeted for so long openly running off with other peoples’ luggage knowing you’re being filmed or creating out of whole fabric an entirely different persona knowing it will ultimately be discovered is just no big deal…me, I get nervous if leaving the ShopRite I realize something I scanned didn’t go through…wish I had their level of nonchalance toward certain social mores….must be refreshing.
Fuck the PCH
https://www.superchargede.com/edison/indoor-karting/
Next GTG?
Left,
Just wait for earnings. It happens now or next quarter or not at all. But don’t write it off just yet. My sentiment only changed slightly based on TA. And amazingly, as we came within 200 points of me needing to make a move I didn’t want to, the market turned and has begun to head downward again.
Now I’m 450 points away from getting back in 50/50. Keep in mind, the upper bound is sloping downwards, but the long-term downtrend keeps on holding. For now.
Left – they/them decided to be a “he” during the court arraignment in Vegas and wore a man’s suit, so no clowning around uninhibited that day and risking contempt.
We just ping-pong’ed from the 200 to the 50 in 1/2 a trading day. This flag is getting tighter and tighter. It is setting up to go north, but maybe a big news item will knock it out of this formation. We are right there converging on a point.
Libturd says:
January 18, 2023 at 3:49 pm
Now I’m 450 points away from getting back in 50/50. Keep in mind, the upper bound is sloping downwards, but the long-term downtrend keeps on holding. For now.
Left-
“let’s stipulate that lying to the Feds [Biden] or obstruction [DJT] don’t really count…”
Obstruction (which includes lying) is serious crime (as it should be).
Here’s the best I can do to explain why I feel we are still headed significantly lower. Though, admittedly, I am somewhat less optimistic (or pessimistic depending on how you’re positioned) than I was a month ago simply because inflation is showing signs of slowing. Where I differ with the majority of market pundits is in the pace of the slowing. We’ve only pricked the inflation bubble so far and we have raised the lending rate as well as removed a significant amount of assets off of the treasury’s books. Core inflation (the one that matters) has increased two months in a row now. Fuel prices are moving up yet again and idiots are buying Bitcoin again. If we barely put a dent in inflation with all of this economy killing stimuli, how the heck are we going to get down to 2 or 3% inflation by either shrinking the size and number of future cuts. Inflation is incredibly sticky. Prices rarely reverse. Want to know what is transitory? People using credit cards and HELOCs to make ends meet. We have not seen blood in the streets either (only in the subways mostly). Our collective animal spirits want a rally. Like in the casino, I’m one of the very few playing the don’t. Yet, the don’t has better odds than the pass line. And everyone’s mad because I’m the only one winning. Remember, every article you read wants to soften the blow. When I read the PPI numbers this morning, I knew the number would be good based on the Chinese shutdown alone and impact that had on fuel prices. But the same gas station that had regular for $2.97 in Little Egg Harbor two weeks ago was selling gas for $3.23 a mere two weeks later. That’s a big jump. Yet all of this was mostly ignored in every report I read. And clearly, it took half a day for the truth to set in. So though, I’ll admit the FED is making a meaningful impact, it’s still far from enough. This isn’t the “Pain,” Powell projected. That pain is still to come. Most likely, when he continues to make larger than expected moves to the lending rate among the backdrop of record credit card debt, auto loan delinquencies and a collapsing housing market. That’s pain! A 10% drop in your 401K when it went up 70% in the prior three years is more like removing a splinter.
Wow left, you are really riding that False Equivency argument hard. The sherriff was sent in as Donnie said the kids weren’t there. All the docs had been sent back. One of his dumb lawyers signed off on that and she is in deep sh1t.
You want a nice read on the legal side? https://murraywaas.substack.com/p/exclusive-special-counsel-has-questioned
Wake me up if Biden’s Special counsel has to offer Qualified Immunity to get co-operation.
Lib Good analysis as always. Seeing stuff out there saying inflation is done, and we won’t have a recession. I have not seen this type of behavior/ rationalization in the past. Maybe, it’s because so many market pundits are too young to remember past recessions, or the inherent belief that the Fed exists only to prevent recessions and jack up housing prices, I don’t know, but it appears there are many out there who are of the belief recessions can’t or won’t happen.
Discover Credit just reported. Top and bottom beat, but increased its provisions for bad debt. Just for the record, it is a crap card for scrubs, only worse is Capital One.
re: Qualified Immunity
We will never find out, all the aides by now have lawyered up. Maybe some kid packed them in Joe’s garage at his direction will take the fall because he/she cannot afford a competent defense attorney.
You have to remember they had time to orchestrate the cover before the story was broken..and now the DNC foot soldiers have been weaving stories in the press that Biden’s exit from the administration was chaotic just like Trump’s exit. The DOJ is also leaking live a sieve to the press as well all the usual friendly publications CNN and NY Times etc.
“According to people familiar with the matter, it was lower-level staffers who carried out most of the actual packing of Biden’s belongings and documents, including his executive assistant Kathy Chung, who now works at the Pentagon, as well as other personal aides.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/12/politics/biden-documents-final-days-vice-president-aides-scramble/index.html
Referencing Powell, he specifically said he is focused on wage inflation and labor force participation.
Libturd says:
January 18, 2023 at 4:59 pm
Core inflation (the one that matters) has increased two months in a row now.
Santos just keeps getting worse. Here he is with his Stars and Bars buddy, standing up for free speech.
https://twitter.com/sandibachom/status/1615396948198191104
Left maybe you can get some screenshots here to frame for your Patriot Wall.
Juice: That was my point yesterday, who decided which documents went where, if in fact Biden had no knowledge the documents were in his garage and at his office. It just does not make any sense.
“Referencing Powell, he specifically said he is focused on wage inflation and labor force participation.”
I know, I know. But I’m not sure I believe it. Plus, a market rally will cause wage inflation.
Of course, the truth is, who knows what to believe?
3B – To move documents from the White House into Biden’s locked garage and home office in his house you needed perhaps a key and the ability to get past the Secret Service. The Press smartly asked for Biden’s Delaware home visitor logs and the Secret Service said they did not maintain them. You can bet those agents on duty around January 2017 know, as former VP 0they provided protection six months after the date he left office. Those agents checked IDs on people coming and going and know who was in or out. BTW the opening date of the Biden Penn Center in Washington was a year later in Feb 2018. The classified documents found there did not arrive until a year after he left office. Lets assume everything was moved to Biden’s garage first and then a year later to the Biden Penn Center. Did sleepy Joe have anything to do with it, while he was retired and tooling around in his Corvette?
Key her is catching someone in a lie to investigators. That is all they need one liar. The president and his people won’t be answering any questions between now and forever. I for one doubt they will be asking the right questions as we know DOJ has already prevented to FBI from being involved. Like Hillary’s secret server and classified information it’s a “matter” not an “investigation” we don’t want seasoned FBI agents around asking the right questions.
https://nypost.com/2023/01/12/wh-admits-more-classified-docs-found-in-bidens-delaware-garage/
What makes sense is that neither Trump nor Biden was concerned about it enough to care. Neither did Hillary with her unsecured bathroom email server. The truth is, they deal with thousands and thousands of confidential documents every day due to over regulation and a disgustingly litigious society. Chances are none of those documents even mattered or were particularly sensitive. Maybe both of them wanted to read them on the toilet at home. Certainly that was Hillary’s intent.
Lib – Our government needs to sell allot of bonds, bills and notes and refinance the rest….and the Fed no longer wants to buy them. That is the only truth.
Lib – Hillary had her own outlook server that fed it all to her Blackberry. She did not print emails and read them on the toilet. No worries anyway Comey said he took a criminal referral from another lawyer the Inspector General and turned it into they did a laborious review of 30,000 e-mails nearly overnight and found nothing to worry about. Oh by the way the lawyers from the DOJ assigned did not individually read the content of all of her e-mails they looked at headers only…. Lol….What a joke that was… It was the classic case of we will see no evil if we do not look.
I give ole Comey credit, he had big balls to make that statement in July of 2016 but did so only because he knew the the press had his back. Too bad he had to come back in October of that year and sell it again after Weiner could not keep it in his pants.
What a year that was…Donny barely had to lie to win…
Lib/ Chgo Very hawkish statements from Bullard and Meister today regarding higher interest rates.
Juice: I agree and again I ask why the garage and not the pantry , or the basement, was there any particular reason some documents went to the house and some to the office, or was it all up to the discretion of the aides?
3b – Documents magically made it to several locations from the White House to Biden’s home in Delaware, his garage and his home office and well as the Biden Penn center a year later..
Are you saying you don’t believe in magic? Poof it’s there….and declassifed by Obama! Haha…
Feckers them all write in someone else next year…
Grim. please approve. In Mod
Just throwing this out there…what if the Fed doesn’t want 2 or 3% inflation? Maybe they want to run it a little higher to erase some of this debt (since most of the debt is based on low interest). New debt is not cheap, so they will lower in the long-term, but they very well maybe want the higher inflation for now.
“ how the heck are we going to get down to 2 or 3% inflation by either shrinking the size and number of future cuts.”
FAB – re: Santos
Are you fuking kidding me.. Santos just keeps getting better.. A democrat impersonating a republican and winning office because he changed his name to one his district would pull the lever for.
This has all the makings of a great movie. He should get and agent and sign a deal ASAP before he gets sent to club Fed for his slap on the wrist. This is even better than winning the Mega Millions jackpot for any telemarketer…
regarding inflation:
Maximum taxable earnings for SS in 2023:
wait for it……
$160,200
“Obstruction (which includes lying) is serious crime (as it should be).”
Ehhh…difference of opinion there….for me, not without the underlying charge holding. Charging someone with a dozen different crimes, spending man-years investigating, and then coming up with zero except some misstatement from all that investigation or resistance to it is not kosher. As I said, it’s the equivalent in the ‘blue collar’ world of five charges of different types of assault and weapons charges and then the only charge they can make stick is resisting arrest. Bullshit in all three instances.
Fabs, you should crack a really good 16 year old scotch, throw back a few, and ask yourself why my support of people to vocally and prominently protest in one of their legislative houses so infatuates you…I haven’t brought it up since it happened nearly three years ago but seems to be a favorite topic of yours….
Juice: They are all feckers and they all blow!!
Obstruction is a tired old argument from the media. It is painfully obvious once lawyers are involved there will never be any obstruction charges.
I ‘ll use Jan 6th as an example… “One lawyer told a witness that the witness could in certain circumstances tell the committee that she didn’t recall facts when she actually did recall them”
Who gets charged here? Trump or the lawyer? Answer is nobody…
Last time I clarify my position because I NEVER speak out of both sides of my mouth . All strong Bear arguments I agree with. A crash I agree with. But I have a different view of the journey. I see a cyclical bull within a secular bear that will NOT be a bear market rally
It will appreciate too much and last to long to be a bear market rally . The bet I’m most convicted about is long Treasures. For equities i unequivocally do not think a severe recession and earnings implosion has been priced in and it is too early in this recession for me to get long equities. If I’m wrong I think it’s more likely I get to cute masterminding this bet than I get long and the market crashes now. At the moment the market is precisely confirming my narrative obviously that can change. So I’m loaded long bonds and watching for swings. where I can identify some positive EV .
Vornado Realty Trust VNO, -0.99% said late Wednesday its board has trimmed the company’s dividend to 37.5 cents a share, from 53 cents a share, thanks to “the current state of the economy and capital markets.” The reduced dividend is also a reflection of Vornado’s reduced projected 2023 taxable income, mostly thanks to higher interest expenses, the company said. Vornado is expected to report quarterly results in mid-February. The company owns properties in New York City, San Francisco, and Chicago. The stock ended the regular trading day Wednesday down 0.9% and traded 2.9% lower in the extended session.
Pro-tip at SR. If you go to CS desk, they can load every digital coupon on your card rather than logging in manually.
Bystander, thanks, good to know.
“According to people familiar with the matter, it was lower-level staffers who carried out most of the actual packing of Biden’s belongings and documents, including his executive assistant Kathy Chung, who now works at the Pentagon, as well as other personal aides.”
Of course! Why in the world would anybody be surprised at this?????
I’ll also bet you that when Biden left the VP’s residence he didn’t wrestle his dining room table down the stairs with one of his buddies and load it into a rented U-Haul trailer hitched to the back of his Corvette!
One of my rules to live by (a version of Hanlon’s Razor)- “Never attribute to malfeasance that which is adequately explained by incompetence”.
I did that GoKart place in Edison over Christmas break with the kid and one of his buddies.
It’s fun, but expensive. $28 per trip, lasts less than 10 minutes. The karts are quick, but not fast. Lots of turns.
They were pretty lax on people running into each other. Had one race full of morons who were oblivious to anyone else, just running into people in the corners, passing on the inside in bad spots, etc. Got Tboned twice by people that just ran straight through a curve at full throttle.
It was also a zoo getting going. 90 minutes in line to sign up, then they cram all of your races into a short time frame. Games and other rides pretty much sucked. Didn’t do the ax throwing.
All in I probably had $300 into it, without food, for 25 minutes or so of race time for each of us.