Thorough, in-depth, housing forecast from smart Harvard guy.

From the NY Post:

Why US home prices will fall another 10 percent, according to Harvard economist

Pain across the US housing market that began last year is likely just getting started if interest rates remain high, star economist Ken Rogoff warned on Tuesday.

Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former top economist at the International Monetary Fund, said home prices in both the US market aboard will fall “certainly another 10%” over the “couple of years.”

The economist cited the restrictive policy stances taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which have caused a spike in mortgage rates and cooled demand among buyers.

“If, as I think, interest rates are going to stay high for some time to come, I think there’s still a lot of downward adjustments in the housing markets globally, not just in the United States,” Rogoff told Bloomberg Television during an appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The Federal Reserve is expected to implement more interest rate hikes early this year after a string of seven straight supercharged interests in 2022. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that rates will rise and then hover in restrictive territory until policymakers have clear evidence that inflation has cooled.

Rogoff noted that the housing and stock markets each tend to struggle whenever central banks hike interest rates – though downticks in home prices tends to occur a longer period of time.

“Equities and housing move in sync with interest rates, but equities move much faster. Housing famously, prices, especially down, move much more slowly. People sit on their house, they don’t want to sell their house,” Rogoff said.

Rogoff’s estimate for home prices is conservative compared to some other experts. Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson has predicted that prices will sink 20% by later this year.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

134 Responses to Thorough, in-depth, housing forecast from smart Harvard guy.

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. dentss dunniagn says:


  3. dentss dunnigan says:


  4. grim says:

    I meant face ripping crash … not rally, whoops. Simple slip.

  5. Juice Box says:

    “People sit on their house, they don’t want to sell their house”

    Yes it is a slow process to crack the ice before the glacier calves…

    I can see it now, you list your 3BR Cape Cod with Suzy from Coldstone & Slotz Realtors. Suzy signs your to a six month contract 5%. You think you got one over because it is not 6% like you heard most people paying. Suzy lists the home you check online and see it on Zillow with an open house in two weeks! Suzy has the showing…but only a few families show up including some neighbors.

    Suzy the realtor calls every week, says no offers yet. She then calmly says perhaps it’s time to lower the asking price. You say you won’t lower your price, she reminds you of the feedback from the open house when only one interested buyer and three neighbors showed up they all said it was too expensive for this neighborhood. Suzy suggests a 5% cut from $649,000 to 617,999. You scream back that is $32,000 dollars that I have to pay you when you sell this place. No way no how you say, if you can’t sell my home for what I think it’s worth, it’s your fault. Conversation ends.

    Another three weeks go by and no offers and Suzy calls back. Suzy tells you the reasons the home isn’t selling (price is too high and conditions like replace roof, windows, and the old furnace) you say I am not spending $50,000 dollars to sell my home at a loss!! Conversation ends..

    Another month goes by and Suzy calls back, it is now Summer. You finally agree to lower the price from $649,000 to $644,900, but Suzy says it won’t make any difference as you are still competing with the homes priced at $599,000 which are probably nicer and updated etc and more likely to sell but still are not moving. Conversation ends.

    It is now August, several homes nearby have sold with further price reductions, one around the corner and two a few blocks away. Suzy mails you a new Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) and it shows those three homes sold for between $549,000 and $569,000. You justify the price difference of $80,000 to $100,000 dollars by saying your home is in a better neighborhood and all even though it is really the same one.

    Six months have gone by Suzy has stopped calling every few weeks, the listing has expired and now your are staying in your home as winter approaches and your dreams of living in Florida in a beach front condo are dashed like a ship on rocks. Homes all around you are not selling you are contemplating when housing prices will turn around perhaps next spring, you will wait and see.

    Seven years go by, several men show up at your home and put you on a gurney, you finally leave your home for good feet first! You Home is finally sold at $509,000 well because it needed $50,000 in updates, and no way your children were going to put money into that old place…You children greedily divide up their share of the sale and spend it immediately on credit card bills and leasing new Cadillac SUVs. The End….

  6. 3b says:

    Ron Insana pleading for the Fed to stop raising rates, “ pleas stop, it’s enough , real estate is “”collapsing”.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    real estate is “”collapsing”.

    Is he looking at prices in Mississippi? It isn’t collapsing here.

  8. Fast Eddie says:


    That’s the scenario, perfectly summed up. I love when sellers drop the price $5,000 thinking that will make a difference. I just looked at a few random houses in the Kinnelon area and at least one has raised the price.

  9. Bystander says:


    It is going to collapse here. People listing for 40% more and now price cutting (aka crying and whining about rates) to make it 35% more than two years ago. We are not special. People just have more bank and “dream equity” to make ride down slower. Job losses, foreclosures come and suddenly it will vanish fast.

  10. Fast Eddie says:


    I’m not sure what collapse really means but if it does happen here, it’s going to take a loooong time. I think sticky sideways is a probability, meaning no appreciation for a few years and current prices staying where they are right now. Nominal drops, I don’t know; inflation eating away at current pricing, perhaps.

    By the way, is it possible to get your email or number through Grim? I wanted to ask you a few industry questions.

  11. Juice Box says:

    This is what I was alluding too yesterday when I was talking about Binance and Bitcoin price increase. They have been driving the price up with trading alt-coins to Bitcoin vs actually dollars, FTX, Binance etc all of them have done wash trade type of trading activity. Same for OpenSea with their NFT market.

    “Billionaire Mark Cuban believes an age-old market manipulation tactic could be the next thing to rock the cryptocurrency industry.

    “I think the next possible implosion is the discovery and removal of wash trades on central exchanges,” the longtime crypto investor tells TheStreet.

    A wash trade is when a trader buys and sells the same financial asset multiple times in order to generate fake volume and make it appear as if there is a high demand for the asset. This artificially inflated demand can mislead other traders into investing real money into the asset.

    Since higher demand typically leads to higher prices, traders can use this process as a type of “pump-and-dump” scheme: When the price is as high as the trader thinks it can go, they can cash out and leave other investors with the asset that’s declining in value.

    Although wash trading has been illegal within traditional U.S. financial markets for decades, it’s likely difficult to crack down on the activity within the crypto space.”

  12. Ex says:

    “I for one will not sign a clean bill raising the debt limit,” Greene insisted during a Fox News interview.
    House members do not “sign” bills, as MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle pointed out on Wednesday night, causing Steele to erupt.
    “She doesn’t know what the hell she’s talking about,” he said in disbelief as Ruhle did a face-palm. “This woman has no clue.”
    Steele took Greene to school:
    “If you understand how this works, Marjorie, then you know that this is about bills that have already been created, not new spending. So this is not a spending question. This is just paying the damn credit card of the country for the $8 trillion your president ran up between 2016 and 2020. So stop with the stupid.”

  13. grim says:

    It’s all pump and dump..

    Peter Thiel reportedly made $1.8 billion cashing out an 8-year bet on crypto – when he was still touting a massive bitcoin price surge

    Peter Thiel’s fund closed almost all of its crypto positions shortly before prices crashed last year, according to the Financial Times.

    Founders Fund made $1.8 billion cashing out its bet on digital assets, the publication said.

    Thiel predicted bitcoin’s price would surge 100 times around the same time his fund was reportedly selling its crypto holdings.

    The fund held around two-thirds of its portfolio in the token at one time but now has no significant exposure to crypto, according to the FT’s sources.

  14. grim says:

    To what extent did Thiel’s dump cause crypto to collapse?

  15. grim says:

    Russian founder of a Chinese cryptocurrrency firm? What possibly could be fishy about that?

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “The level of over-staffing in Tech is bizarre – almost like QE/ZIRP were, in part, a socialized employment scheme

    A decade of “how to employ millennials” w/ quiet rooms and trigger-free leadership led to the most bloated, unproductive employee base in half a century”

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What isn’t? Entire economy is a Ponzi scheme based on high population growth.

    grim says:
    January 19, 2023 at 9:18 am
    It’s all pump and dump..

  18. 3b says:

    Bystander/ Fast; I don’t know what he means by collapse, but the price declines have barely started, especially in this area. I don’t think a 20 percent decline is unreasonable to expect in our area, perhaps more. I know you have all these people with super low rates who won’t sell, but there are some who will have to sell for various reasons, and there are many who have lived in their house who will sell at some point, including old people. Plus a decline in family formation and the birth rate adds to the mix.

  19. No One says:

    “One of my rules to live by (a version of Hanlon’s Razor)- “Never attribute to malfeasance that which is adequately explained by incompetence”.”

    Is this how the left and the media dealt with Trump?

    Of course Trump deserved a taste of his own medicine, a politician who took ad-hominem attacks to a new level in politics, attacking the person of Republicans as much as he attacked Dems.

    I think it’s a result of the intellectual bankruptcy of both the right and left. If you cannot make a logical argument for your case through reason, you turn to emotion, arbitrary assertions, and personal attacks. I recently heard a story about a former Dem saying she became Republican after witnessing Biden’s using such tactics on Clarence Thomas. But in my head I was wondering, if that bothered that much, how could you tolerate Trump pushing the story that Ted Cruz’ dad killed JFK, or trashing Carly Fiorina’s face?

    I miss the long-ago days when at least to some degree, politicians attempted to debate ideas. Crossfire in the late 80s, early 90s was an example of that sort of thing. Or McGloughlin Group. Had multiple sides of the political spectrum debating each other. Now, both sides are trying to rile up their bases with personal attacks, fantasies and conspiracy theories about the other side. And both sides do have ridiculous, terrible people worth making fun of. But in the meantime, actual political policies are being based on ideas, which barely get any attention.

  20. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I pray houses come down 20% in our area. Please Lord give me a gift.

  21. Juice Box says:

    re: “To what extent”

    Seems Peter Thiel and his partners got out by April last year. Founders Fund is the original PayPal mafia….with many other rich founders from Silicon valley like Sean Parker from Napster and Facebook.

    They had Elon pumping for the last few years until around April last year when Dogecoin saw a more than 500% price surge due to Elon’s tweets. Elon has since soured on all crypto.

  22. Ex says:

    9:29 having stupid people in charge never works out well.

  23. leftwing says:

    Closed some more UAL shorts….have a third of the total position I put on last week/yesterday. $4 gain on this batch….about 8% in a week…

    Out of the SPY hedge business for sure chi….too much other lower hanging fruit to express some negative delta.

  24. Ex says:

    It is this intoxicating allure of performative influence that lends Davos its underlying absurdity. There is nothing very remarkable about officials who control the world getting together in private to make self-serving decisions; they do that all the time. That’s the job. The fatal flaw of the Davos crowd is that they are not satisfied simply with being in control of everything. They also want to be good, or at least to give the public impression of being good. Thus the typical CEO and presidential interviews and panels of economic and geopolitical predictions – the real things – are leavened with piles of other cultural and do-gooder content meant to convey the idea that at the center this crowd of the world’s most cut-throat plutocrats and cold-blooded status-seekers lies a heart of gold.

  25. Juice Box says:

    re: Russian founder arrested in Miami. Why would be land on our shores? Had to know they were after him? Perhaps an American country club prison is more favorable than holding a rusty rifle in a trench in Ukraine.

    Hydra Market? What is this a Captain America movie?

    Changpeng Zhao is probably hiding out in Nouriel Roubini is at the WEF in Davos and has been calling him a criminal.

  26. leftwing says:

    Juice, 8:07a, post of the week….

    “I can see it now, you list your 3BR Cape Cod with Suzy…Seven years go by, several men show up at your home and put you on a gurney, you finally leave your home for good feet first!…You children greedily divide up their share of the sale and spend it immediately on credit card bills and leasing new Cadillac SUVs. The End….”

    Thanks for the laugh this morning.

  27. grim says:

    If you look at the historical ratio of high-end supercar prices to NJ real estate, home prices have already crashed.

  28. grim says:

    Porsche 911 Turbo S is now a $200k+ car.

    Non-collectible 10+ year old Ferraris are commanding absurd prices.

  29. Juice Box says:

    Ex – It is not all performative influence.

    It is better than the leaders of industry and government get together face to face in Public on a stage to discuss things. There has to be order, like the one that was hashed out in Breton Woods after the ruins left behind from WWII. It was the foundation of the rules for commercial and financial relations worldwide today.

    For example at Davos China’s vice premier Liu was there. People have condemned them for not speaking out against Russia. But also realize they are not supporting Russia either by shipping them weapons for example.

    Here are some excerpts from his speech.

    China’s Vice Premier Liu He said Tuesday that the world needs to abandon its Cold War mentality and seek to strengthen international cooperation.

    In a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Liu repeatedly called on countries to improve diplomatic ties, “to “firmly safeguard world peace.”

    “We have to abandon the Cold War mentality, try to understand the essence of things from the perspective of material duality, endeavor to build a community with a shared future for mankind, and join hands to respond to global challenges,” Liu said, according to a translation. “We believe that an equitable international economic order must be preserved by all of us.”

    Referencing the WEF “Cooperation in a Fragmented World” theme of this year,Liu said it was imperative for China to open up to the world. He added that Beijing opposed unilateralism and protectionism.

    Treasury Secretary Yellen is meeting with Liu today outside of Davos in Zurich to discuss our relations there won’t be a stage there it’s closed door meetings.

  30. Ex says:

    10:04 strange bedfellows! Moving beyond dogma?

  31. Bystander says:


    This says it best:

    The Japanese say you have three faces. The first face, you show to the world. The second face, you show to your close friends, and your family. The third face, you never show anyone

  32. leftwing says:

    Please don’t listen to Ron Insana…he’s a total idiot…was a cue card reader at CNBC, left in the midst of one of the prior free-money markets to start his own hedge fund (lol), and promptly blew it up. No one has let him near anyone else’s money since.

    Re: Davos, yeah I’ll pass. Talk about self awareness….[apologies for the source but it was the most succinct one I found].

    I mean if this kind of attitude doesn’t make you want to vomit…

  33. Bystander says:


    NP. Just send to burnerNJR at I will respond. Music or Cannabis industries? :>)

  34. 3b says:

    Left: I remember that with Insana, back in the early 2000 s.

  35. Fast Eddie says:


    Work related. Lol. I’m not familiar with burner addresses. New to me or I’m just too set in my ways.

  36. Bystander says:

    Unable to read labor market now. I had a flurry of contacts for first two weeks, even phone screen for Nomura role and I am ideal candidate. No word back in 10 days. It has been absolutely silent on LinkedIn for last week. That is strange for nearing end of Jan. Certainly expect lots of resignations by early Feb after bonus catastrophe. We’ll see.

  37. Juice Box says:

    Way better outtakes from Davos than tired old John Kerry. Remember there is a Russian Davos too in our polarized world today sides have been already chosen for you.

    Here is Palantir CEO Alex Karp speaking to Sorkin at Davos on on one no stage involved..about 11 minutes long well worth the watch.

    If you did not know about Palantir’s MetaConstellation, Ukraine and allies are using it too see what commercial data satellite data is currently available about a given given battle space. The available data includes a surprisingly wide array, from traditional optical pictures to synthetic aperture radar and thermal images.

  38. Bystander says:

    Hey Ed,

    just send it to that address. BurnerNJR at mail com. No need to bother grim. I will reply to you.

  39. Mike S says:

    fwiw I went to a 1m+ listing in madison last weekend… they said thursday they had 40+ brokers, saturday they had 60+ groups, and sunday was equally as busy…
    There is such low inventory of quality properties. This one was not on a busy road, next to a school, next to a table tennis club, apartment complex, next to the watertower or powerlines, etc

    I mostly see undesirable lots for sale, regardless of how nice the house is..

  40. Juice Box says:

    As it is a new year Yellen is pressing the flesh with the Chinese in Switzerland for a reason. It’s to let them know what’s next in Ukraine.

    Our Secretary of Defense just touched down in Germany. He is there to tell the Germans something they may not want to hear. Those thousands of tanks that are now being unloaded in the Netherlands? They will be going to the front whether Germany supports it or not.

    We just shipped 1270 armored vehicles to Europe M1 tanks and Bradleys plus support vehicles. They are going to be sitting dockside in the Netherlands until we decide when the next move in the war.

  41. Libturd says:

    Locally, I think we are currently in the, I’m not willing to sell because I am going to have to pay so much more in interest in my next home. Eventually, the desire to move will trump the increase in cost you will be forced to pay to do so. We are always last. Last to drop and last to comeback.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is what I am trying to explain to people, but they don’t get it.

    During the last housing bust, it was impossible to find a desirable property for a deal. Simply impossible. I laughed at individuals that claimed I overpaid…I was like well, find me the turn key house for a deal. Searched for 3 f/ing years and was about to give up. Never want to go through that hell again.

    When a market goes bust….it’s only undesirable houses that sell and bring down the price in north jersey. I’m not talking about the rest of the country, I am simply talking about the competitive north jersey market.

    Mike S says:
    January 19, 2023 at 10:41 am
    fwiw I went to a 1m+ listing in madison last weekend… they said thursday they had 40+ brokers, saturday they had 60+ groups, and sunday was equally as busy…
    There is such low inventory of quality properties. This one was not on a busy road, next to a school, next to a table tennis club, apartment complex, next to the watertower or powerlines, etc

    I mostly see undesirable lots for sale, regardless of how nice the house is..

  43. Bystander says:

    I just had a vendor resource in Poland requesting a move to Canada. This is due to Ukraine conflict. No details yet. Vendor came to me and said he wants to do it in next three months.

  44. leftwing says:

    3b, yeah, I hate to come down on Insana so hard as he seems like an entirely non-offensive, pleasant human being but if you are going to put yourself in the position of handling people’s well being you have to know what you are doing…

    Looking forward to that Karp listen, I like him.

    Re: Kerry, the unbridled arrogance is just mind numbing…”we are the chosen few appointed to save the planet”. I mean who the fuck even thinks that way? And then actually says it out loud?

    Just when I start to age out into complacency something like this comes along to remind me how viscerally I hate liberals.

  45. Bystander says:

    Sustainable in Madison, Mike? 52% higher than 10 months ago with ugly low end remodel. Sorry not buying that is the norm. Certainly the very wealthy 1-2m shopper took vast cut of Fed’s wealth printing so high end will probably be more competitive..for awhile until this economy catches up to them.

  46. leftwing says:

    Also, funny watching Gore. That is one old angry white dude.

  47. Phoenix says:

    Re: Kerry, the unbridled arrogance is just mind numbing…”we are the chosen few appointed to save the planet”. I mean who the fuck even thinks that way?

    Rich people. People with power.

    You will never hear those words pass the lips of the poor or middle class.

  48. leftwing says:

    Re: that Madison listing 103 saves in a week on the market….flipper, taking a haircut…bought at 525k in March 2022, listed at 799k in May, 695k now…assume it sells at that he loses at least 30k in realtor/attorney fees, 40k-ish in carry costs…that leaves 100k for renos and profit….dude is working for minimum wage.

  49. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Absolutely.. i always say that a form of UBI has been around for years already in the corporate world..

    Paying staff who, quite literally don’t do anything.. or illusion “make work” projects to project the image of productivity”

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    January 19, 2023 at 9:27 am
    “The level of over-staffing in Tech is bizarre – almost like QE/ZIRP were, in part, a socialized employment scheme

    A decade of “how to employ millennials” w/ quiet rooms and trigger-free leadership led to the most bloated, unproductive employee base in half a century”

  50. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And we wonder why these workers embrace WFH?!

    And we question why productivity is at all time lows?! Lmao

  51. Phoenix says:

    America is set to hit $31 TRILLION debt ceiling TODAY.

    No problem.
    Just pay the minimum amount due- and leave the rest for the millennials and Gen Z.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lol sounds about right.

    “Fake crash, sell tons of useless puts, afternoon rip to 3940 then a gapup to 3970 tmw to kill your spx options cause you can’t sell them but they can kill them

    Just need a BS headline like “debt ceiling negotiations going well””

  53. Bystander says:


    He probably overpaid by 30% in 2022 so I would think it should sell for below his purchase price at some point…significantly, probably 475K. It makes no sense.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Price cuts will bring the sidelined buyers back into the market which I discuss in my recent HW article:

  55. leftwing says:

    Reno ByS…I think I know the area it’s located and I can only imagine what that 1920s Tudor looked like when he closed….

    Market today is the market…very busy mostly non-residential road and unattractive style to most buyers but…it’s move-in ready, it’s on-the-market inventory, and it has 103 saves. Will sell this weekend. The flipper, although he’s taking it on the chin, isn’t stupid…take the hit and move on, exposure right now is to the downside unless he wants to make a leveraged bet that demand for shitty old facelifted houses on main roads is going to pop before the summer lull…..

    If it’s the location I’m thinking of I believe the Jets training facility is basically down the road….

  56. Bystander says:

    Grim, in mod please

  57. leftwing says:

    Yup. Nice find Lib…used that road as a pass through to Twin Oaks long ago…used to be trees and fields as shown in ’08…totally built up now, Jets, housing developments, private clubs, big medical center…similarly the intersection by Mennen, forget the two roads but even at the time they were two heavily travelled four lane roads but one side of the intersection was all green…shopping centers now….same for the fields next Mennen, condos…

  58. Boomer Remover says:

    IT employment anecdote: My BIL is late twenties. Eight years ago he was failing out of community college while working in the diamond industry. He made it through college and pivoted towards IT. Out of school he landed a position in a large consulting firm, sat around played video games for much of the past two years. He then enrolled in an IT related remote masters program in Georgetown. Just this past week he accepted an offer in Morristown with a government contractor for twice as much as he was making.

    Kid done well.

  59. Libturd says:

    The road Mennen Sports Arena is on went from forest and farm to completely developed in the last 10 years. Besides the Mennen Condos with the strip mall in front, they built that huge strip mall housing Shoprite and a stand-alone Lowes as well as a few others. I didn’t even think that many people lived out that way, but they are all always packed. The Mennen Condo complex is pretty impressive too.

  60. Juice Box says:

    Alec Baldwin is lucky he did not commit the manslaughter crime in NJ. He would be facing 5-10 years in prison, in New Mexico it’s up to 18 months in prison.

    He of course already tried to act his way out of this one….but the Assistant director David Halls pled out already to the lesser charge of negligent use of a deadly weapon and will get a suspended sentence and only six months of probation for presumably his testimony against Baldwin and the armorer Gutierrez-Reed.

  61. Juice Box says:

    Debt ceiling dance will go like it always has for the last 100 years. The politicians will waltz around Washington in meetings and pressers with photo ops for a few months and then pass a bill “Budget Reduction Act of 2023” that claims to imposes some fiscal sanity, but then the next crisis will come along and it will be all out the window as they kick the can down the road again..

  62. Libturd says:

    You are nice to blame it on a crisis. I attribute it to bipartisan spending.

  63. Libturd says:

    Though, this time around, the two parties are not playing nice anymore. Just look at the Senate Majority Leader mess. This could be a mess too and another economic headwind.

  64. Mike S says:

    I was talking about this one:

    Overall I was surprised how small it was for the price, but the foot traffic was there… I won’t be surprised if it sells for this much or close to it.

  65. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s insane how much they developed that area.

  66. Mike S says:

    I won’t even set foot in a flipped house to even casually browse – they are all done so poorly

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Mike S gets it. Quality properties are hard to find. Using avg sale price to justify that desirable homes should be cheaper during a bust is comical. Desirable homes are not avg….they are above avg. Understand this. You are never ever getting a deal on a desirable property in north jersey. NEVER.

  68. Bystander says:


    It is well maintained but there is nothing impressive about it for 1.15m. Everyday I am more thankful to be out of housing market for last 8 years. I just don’t understand how people could make that decision. Madison is nice but not that nice so you literally mortgage your future.

  69. Mike S says:


    I agree – I bought my house in 2011 for way below what you would pay today – and I have been in a casual search for many years to upgrade to a nicer home… there is no way I am paying that kind of price for that house, I mainly went to just see the foot traffic…

  70. Bystander says:

    Lots of people did you freaking dingus. Certainly sounds like Lib got a great find in Glen Ridge. It will happen again..I thought you were an expert on cycles? Apparently you think a cycle is now a straight line up.

  71. Libturd says:

    In all fairness, my house wasn’t turnkey. It had digital locks.

  72. Bystander says:


    Here is my neck of woods with asking prices 70-90% higher than a few years ago. Got put in mod. I think anyone buying now in the 2009 sucker buyer who thought worst was over. This will be much, much worse than 2009. First up, I have seen coffins at funeral home with less boxy design. Won’t get into location and I believe flood area. I present Evidence A for photoshop fraud, your honor.

  73. Bystander says:

    Speaking of funerals, I would say breaking your neck on these steps is very likely.

  74. Bystander says:

    Finally – speechless. There is no possible way to describe this home but Coloni-rancho-split-asaurus.

  75. leftwing says:

    Lib, out of my VNT shares. 24% actual return since 11/3 (bottom ticked it basically on an earnings miss). Share price has rolled, I’ll keep watching, if I can reload, I will. Earnings 2/16. If she keeps running I’m fine with the return I got. Unlike below, the skew for me is more 50/50 now, which is not a place I want to be right now…

    leftwing says:
    November 3, 2022 at 1:58 pm
    Lib, keep an eye on VNT also….stagnant core growth but just bought a better division, great capital structure (most debt years out, fixed at stupid low rates)….mind numbingly low valuation with results just reported (ie, no near term surprises). Even if you cut future earnings in half you’re still at an 11 or so multiple….Think I’ll violate the three day rule and start to scoop up some…

    leftwing says:
    November 3, 2022 at 3:01 pm
    Don’t know…did violate the three day rule which I don’t like doing. Still more room to buy until I hit final hold target though. M&A is a risk…grandchild of Danaher with similar buy/build strategy…they wouldn’t be dumb enough to do a share deal at these prices though, and they have bought back shares aggressively in past.

    Gotta step in somewhere/sometime…mostly institutionally held spinout through earnings at a less than 6x multiple with solid cap structure seems not too aggressive…think the skew longer term of the next five points in my favor, ie. she’ll hit 22 before 12….

  76. Boomer Remover says:

    Yeah, same, my wife and I can’t bring ourselves to buy any of these decrepit wooden shacks. We do enjoy living in more dense/urban environment like the one here in Edgewater, and aren’t opposed to an apartment. High ceilings and concrete construction narrow the candidate list quite a bit, and then come the HOA fees.

    I am happiest when I put less than 15 miles on my car, per week.

  77. leftwing says:

    Re: Coloni-rancho-split-asaurus.

    LOL, and for good measure not only did they plaster the electric on the front of the house but somehow found a way to do it 2x.

    What’s the car in the driveway. More interested in that….

  78. Bystander says:

    Cmon people, we can’t really believe a huge day of reckoning is not coming. Lot is tighter than a nun’s..err, habit. A 1/2 duplex condo for over 1m?

  79. Bystander says:

    Did not even see it Left. So much going on that it looks like one of those ‘find the hidden cat’ in the picture books.

  80. leftwing says:

    Winding Way…perfectly respectable home, but not for $1.15m, although to point on here given lack of inventory may get near it…just can’t see paying seven figures for something with fake plastic bolted on shutters, unfinished concrete, and original contractors’ pavers…don’t most higher end Madison residents send their kids to Peck or M-B anyway? Does the school district support that premium?

  81. leftwing says:

    And, Lib, last stock post today I’m guessing…bought back in the final tranche of META options I wrote…still a little juice left (were around 76% of maxprofit when I closed) but not worth the return right now….free up some buying power for the next few weeks of earnings…my long option spread there is still one of my more significant holdings although I did slide a small hedge right underneath that covers earnings…anyway, I’m still in my ATH bandwidth and now 83% cash…yeah, not a typo…reviewing last year I fucked around too much, booking gains then getting mentally lazy or letting things run since I had ‘room’. No more, turned into a greedy muthafucka, taking gains aggressively, and deploying new money aggressively but not overstaying my welcome…

    These humps actually take us down around 3200 this quarter or next you’ll never hear from me again on stocks as I’ll fill up all LT holds…..

  82. Mike S says:

    agree it is honestly not a bad home, but the fact that 1.15m gets you that is what is crazy… will be interesting to see in the spring market how things stand, but with the lack of solid inventory – prices wont go too much lower

  83. Ex says:

    Wages haven’t kept pace with homes prices.
    $1m is a lot of cabbage. Taxes in NJ are obscene.

  84. Ex says:

    1:44 HOA fees can be huuuuge.

  85. leftwing says:

    On your 1/2 one million dollar condo that picture is cropped hard to the right as if I’m not mistaken it is not only a commercial street but right next to an auto body shop…jfc…

  86. leftwing says:

    bad link. This one….

  87. Hold my beer says:


    Look what 540k gets you in a nice neighborhood in Grand Prairie Texas.

    I get so depressed looking at listings in NJ and Connecticut

  88. Libturd says:

    By 79 Thorpe in Fairfield. They cleverly hide the sprawling autobody shop that is 1 yard from the right property line and runs about 100 yards to the corner. You’ve never heard loud noises until you worked next to one of them. Lot’s of sledgehammering, metal sawing, etc. Plus, the entire place looks like the contractor found an excellent 2 for 1 sale.

  89. Bystander says:

    That’s exactly correct left. I love my town. Downtown area is awesome but mention ‘beach area’ and people think caviar dreams. There are some great streets around the beach but this is zone with the 1/8 acre properties, old shacks and commercial zoning towards end of town. Way overrated. Gets real nice again when you get to Southport..the very old money village with zero commercial zoning. It is small picturesque harbor town if anyone drives past this way on 95.

  90. Libturd says:


    Check out some of the flyover country in Wyoming if you want to see a lot for a little.

  91. Libturd says:

    Left VNT was a textbook lesson in short-term value investing. Throw in the ESG and it was a home run. Good for you on it. I can’t stand the current market (sideways), but at least I have some serious zero risk, 4-5% interest bearing accounts doing their thing. It’s been so long since I had seven figures sitting in the bank that I forgot how much interest they bear. I haven’t looked forward to opening my bank statements in ages. My net worth is at it’s highest ever and my powder pile continues to grow. Best of all, everything seems to be synching together with ideal timing. Even new car costs and future home costs. I swear to you all, I’m going to be done working the daily grind in about 18 months. Then it’s Henderson and Playa Grande the rest of the way.

  92. Ex says:

    Funny thing. Once you’ve been somewhere really nice…it’s hard to settle for “Bumf-ck” now isn’t it?

  93. Bystander says:


    Wages are not a factor…apparently, everyone is making $250k/hr to afford 800K starter homes.


    Nice place but I would be sooner scratch my corneas out then live in a TX development hell like that. My neighbor across street was a sanitation worker who cleared snow from my driveway the first we moved in. My next door neighbor was my son’s pre-school science teacher. Guy on hill above me listens to Phish and smokes weed on his patio. Humble people, very humble houses. We are all separated enough grass and trees to breathe. This is home. Also, pretty sure you could head over border into Easton/Bethlehem as got a home like that for 600K.

  94. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Saudi Arabian diplomat Ahmed Al Jubeir talks about his vision of the future: “There will be no cars”

  95. Bystander says:


    Excuse my language..but what utter f-in bullshite. Now Fed bailing out bankrupt crypto banks? There is no capitalism anymore. F-up and get a seat at Fed’s money printing Smorgasbord

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:


    That’s the truth. Fed runs the show. Now invest accordingly.

    Don’t fight Fed liquidity on the way up or down. Simple as that. Took me a long long time to understand this and I am laying it out as simple as I can. That’s all that matters when it comes to investing or running a business.

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bitcoin back over 21k…

    Looks like market will run up tomorrow.

  98. Juice Box says:

    Every federal and state regulator should be on site at Silvergate Bank demanding documents, interviewing bank employees, examining records of transfers out of the bank to review risk issues and determine if there is money laundering or any other crime occurring related to crypto or otherwise as this bank has now failed and will need a full FDIC bailout probably, there is no way they can every pay back that FHLB short term loan of $4 billion with interest.

    There are other small banks in the crypto game too..Signature Bank in NYC….SBNY
    and others here and abroad we have yet to hear about.

  99. Juice Box says:

    Bitcoin is a massive wash trade aka fake trading volume in unregulated offshore crypto exchanges. Just ask Marc Cuban about it.

    Recent research. below..(not that people did not see this already for year and years now).–research-shows/?sh=4320293918da

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Whatever it is, juice….it leads the market every single time. Maybe tomorrow will be different.

  101. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Think this development exemplifies the demand out there for north jersey real estate. Absolutely insane that they sold all these townhouses at those prices. This is the reality of the north jersey market.

  102. Phoenix says:

    Geez Boomer. 🙄

    American debt is now at an eye-watering $31.38 trillion – that’s 120 percent of GDP, up from 39.2 percent in 2008 and 77.6 percent in 2018.

  103. Phoenix says:

    Funny thing. Once you’ve been somewhere really nice…it’s hard to settle for “Bumf-ck” now isn’t it?

    That is what booze is for. Makes everything look nice. 😊

  104. Phoenix says:

    Drinking is what got them pregnant in the first place.

    CDC tells doctors to buck up their ideas as study shows just one in SIX pregnant women who admit drinking alcohol were advised to quit

  105. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Chamath gets this. Guy gets a lot of hate, but he gets it.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He’s saying in different words what I was saying to you bystanders. Investing carries zero risk if you follow the Fed liquidity cycle.

  107. Bystander says:

    Liquidity cycle…OMG. Too much. Tell me all the Feds liquidity cycles from 1920 to 2007?

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why 2023 Could Finally Be the Year of the 4-Day Workweek
    Both employers and employees have declared global trials of a four-day workweek an overwhelming success.

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:


    You cry about the Fed liquidity driving up the price. This means you know it. So why not act on it through investing? Like taking candy from a baby. Just follow the cycle.

  110. Fast Eddie says:

    American debt is now at an eye-watering $31.38 trillion – that’s 120 percent of GDP, up from 39.2 percent in 2008 and 77.6 percent in 2018.

    Thanks, Joe.

  111. The Great Pumpkin says:

    A young Fed got their ass handed to them in the early 1930s. They pulled too much when they should have been feeding the bank’s liquidity. Entire Great Depression could have been avoided. They learned…

    Bystander says:
    January 19, 2023 at 8:23 pm
    Liquidity cycle…OMG. Too much. Tell me all the Feds liquidity cycles from 1920 to 2007?

  112. Fast Eddie says:

    “She is arguably the least effective White House press secretary of the television era,” said one unnamed reporter…

    Referring to Cringe Jean-Pierre. True dat. Chocolate Shirley Temple sucks!

  113. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Think we can all agree…this is the greatest period in American history to be a worker. I think this goldilocks period might kill unions. Why do you need them in this environment?

    That’s what cracks me up with all this overkill “micro management” in teaching thanks to chris christie. You dumb f’k…you created legions of administrators. Nice job, brah!

  114. The Great Pumpkin says:

    They can’t fire anyone, because they can’t replace them. ROTFLMAO. So why have all this bs? Thanks, you selfish fat f’k.

  115. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No one is america is scared of losing their job. No one. Until they are, I do not see a recession.

  116. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And you can’t have low 2% inflation with this labor market. Invest accordingly.

  117. leftwing says:

    David Crosby passes….feee-uck.

  118. The Great Pumpkin says:


  119. Fast Eddie says:

    I saw CSN&Y at MSG in the mid 2000s. Not many can say that. Damn. I have the ticket stub, will show at the next get together.

  120. The Great Pumpkin says:

    JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said today work from home

    “doesn’t work for young kids or spontaneity or management”

  121. Bystander says:

    You see nothing bc you are a fool. The US never had a liquidity crisis. It has had a excessive risk taking crisis for decades, now rewarded by govt and Fed. We have the moral hazard crisis that Bernanke mentioned then shat all over. Powell has followed same strategy. When I look back, I was a newbie entering the working world as dot-com bubble was forming. I now see that it was exactly medicine needed. It collapsed..hard. No bailouts. This was followed by the scum exposure at Enron and MCI/WC. The stench of corruption and greed was right in your nose and middle class America got played. 2008 and 2020 bailouts are embarrassments bc it created lazy, entitled risk takers with zero shame about long run damage to society. Every crypto firm, fly by night garbage fintech IPO wannabes, BNPL redundant software firms should go under..period. Liquidity has saturated capitalism with streaming piles everywhere. Cheer on the “liquidity cycle”, dufus. Also, all these job seekers making a killing? Have you changed jobs? Has your wife changed jobs? Has anyone in my 6 sibling family changed jobs in last two years? Only my bro who was fired from a billionaire’s vanity venture in late 2021 and now works a small hedge fund in city. Look around dingus. Wages went up for lowest manual sector, the highest tech talent and wall street deal-makers. In between will continue getting squeezed and take on more debt…JFC.

  122. Bystander says:


    I think I saw that same tour for CSNY at Arts center. Encore was Neil Rocking in the Free World if I recall. Might have been same year Steely Dan played with Michael McDonald . That was a treat though he could not hit Peg high notes.

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Great read.

    The inflation threat is mainly over.

    Disinflation is the concern now which is what we saw in the early ‘80’s. This will lead to lower corporate profits and stock prices.

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:


    But you know the rhythm of this Fed song… act on it.

  125. Ex says:

    One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt.

    The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.

  126. Fast Eddie says:

    National debt as of 12/02/2022. It appears the drunken vegetable parading as a president plans to best any past president:

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