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First
Damn
Late start Grim?
Hah!
Waiting for the outcome of another highest and best on a house in Westwood. When this house closes it will represent the highest price ever paid in Westwood for a 1.5 bath home. Previous high was $703,000 in November. This house is priced at 725 and is about 1400 GLA. That is over $500 a square foot for Westwood. Crazy!
Old realtor,
When was the house listed? How long ago?
Eddie,
Listed Friday
Damn! Is there any way of telling how many offers were made?
Put in an offer. They’ll tell you.
Any good, cheap, vinyl replacement window guys in the area that you know? Preparing house for sale next year and need to replace 5 of the old wooden windows.
Matt C, the guy I use regularly has a full voicemail box. Never a good sign.
Lib,
I’ll give you 450K for the house. 475K is my best and final.
Fast: That house will be worth double what it sells for in a year. Recession over, or not happening. Party on. Who cares if David Rosenberg says that’s nonsense.
Old Realtor – I have family in Westwood. I will let them know the good news as they paid about $200 sq ft during the last bubble, they have since remodeled and the house it is much bigger now although the small lot and high taxes leaves much to be desired in my opinion.
Is anyone else making home location decisions with consideration of the blast radius from Manhattan of a Dong Feng-5?
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
On the opposite side, this is from WolfStreet.
A bizarre twist in the market.
The median price of used houses has dropped from a year ago, but just a hair. The median price of new houses has dropped more sharply, as homebuilders got the memo, and now the median price of used houses is the same as the median price of new houses. This is a historic pricing disconnect that will correct.
The median price of used single-family houses, at $416,000 in June, was down 1.2% from June last year. The month of June is normally the seasonal price peak for the year. Prices normally decline in the second half. This comes amid rising supply and rising days on the market.
The median price of new single-family houses, at $416,000 in May (last data available), was down by 16% from the peak in October, and by 7.6% year-over-year.
Potential home sellers are going to figure this out eventually. But they haven’t yet. And so you get this crazy-looking chart (historic data via YCharts):
This is a reality check. Homebuilders are the pros; they have figured out what it takes in this market amid the 7% mortgage rates. They cut prices and they’re building at lower price points, and they’re buying down mortgage rates and throwing incentives at buyers to make deals. And they can because some of their costs have gone down. And they’re selling homes to buyers that would have bought a used home.
Year-over-year, the median price of existing single-family houses fell by 1.2%, the fifth month in a row of year-over-year declines (historic data via YCharts):
Regarding number of offers…when I submitted my offer Sunday night, it was after an open house and offers were still coming in. Didn’t bother to get an updated count because it really doesn’t matter.
Lib,
Haven’t done business with these guys in many years but they were always well priced and reliable.
https://dor-winmfg.com/
Insanity. Truly insane. Where is the money coming from? The price of everything is off the charts, when do we hit the ceiling?
When I was recently in NJ I thought the price of most things were way too high. Restaurant tipping seems to have found a new normal of at least 20%. I tend to go with 15% myself. One thing I’m very happy with now that I’ve sold my house is not having to pay NJ property taxes. I really don’t understand have anyone can make money on a rental property when you have such high property taxes and homeowners insurance. Things are just going to get much worse with the current administration’s war on home appliances.
No One – re: Dong Feng..
Ah a favorite topic of mine TEOTWAWKI
Dong Feng seems to be a standard ICBM, it would be detected long before it reaches our shores. We would be sure to destroy anyone who launched one several minutes before their missile were to hit NYC, they would feel the heat first.
A single one of our first strike missiles boats can destroy as much as 192 cities. We have 14 active Ohio class submarines that run deep with 24 Trident II missiles each.
Each Trident II missile is a MIRV (Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle), 8 MIRV per Trident with a 100 ktTNT W76 nuclear warhead. The MIRV warhead is tiny, about 3 ft tall, cannot be shot down as they travel 18,000 mph upon re-entry.
Then the follow-up land based and other missiles would arrive, a double tap for sure with plenty left over.
Here is an older fear mongering article from the NY Times editorial board from 2017. Substitute “Trump” with “Biden” as The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has said Biden has take us closer to Nuclear annihilation than any president since Kennedy. But the NY Times won’t really report on it.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/10/26/opinion/trump-nuclear-arsenal.html
CNN did a piece earlier this year.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/24/opinions/doomsday-clock-90-seconds-to-midnight-brown/index.html
Thanks old. I’ll check them out.
Lib, I used these guys to just replace the class in several windows.
https://www.ableglassmirrorcompany.com/
Lib,
I used Essex Door & Window several years ago. Service and workmanship was great and I thought pricing was fair.
https://essexdoorandwindow.com/
https://www.axios.com/2023/07/25/ups-deal-teamsters-strike-averted?stream=top&utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=alerts_allStrike Averted!
Joes Inflation to continue full throttle. Whats next bankrupt SS, complete emptying of our strategic oil? How about the killing of 10,000 Americans monthly with fentanyl laced drugs from our dear friends in China. Joe says they are good people. Oh don’t forget paying off all college loans, and bill all the suckers who paid there own bills.
Anyway my son is getting a big raise along with Martin Luther King day off. I am proud of the hard work he does and his ability to support his family without any of my help. Ten hour days are the norm, 12 hour days the norm in November and December.
Wage increases for full-timers will bring their average top rate to $49 per hour — making them the highest-paid delivery drivers in the U.S., the union said.
WTF am I doing wrong? Holy f**k!
Man Who Swindled Donors to Trump-Inspired Border Wall Faces Sentencing
Prosecutors say Timothy Shea and his group stole over a million dollars, spending some on jewelry, boat payments and a Trump-themed energy drink.
Timothy Shea had started several businesses before seizing on Donald Trump’s border wall as an opportunity.
By Colin Moynihan
July 25, 2023, 10:00 a.m. ET
A Colorado man convicted last year of conspiring to defraud people who donated money to build the kind of border wall championed by Donald J. Trump is scheduled to be sentenced Tuesday
Lib, next year? That’s a pull forward, no?
https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/white-house-blames-first-dog-commanders-bite-spree-on-stressful-environment/
Ok, can we just make a good decision and get a Lab instead?
Some people would call Victoria Bilodeau’s decision to work as a freelance digital marketer a move to gain work-life balance. She calls it a “lazy-girl job.”
Bilodeau, 23 years old, says she used to work 10-hour days as an environmental technician, helping clean up low-level radioactive dirt for $26 an hour. Now, she logs about three hours a day promoting makeup and skin-care products online. She earns less than she used to, but in her newly abundant free time, she exercises, meditates and plays with her cats, Jinx and Fang. Living with her boyfriend in Belleville, Ontario, helps defray expenses.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-career-goal-of-the-moment-is-a-lazy-girl-job-f5075c4e
All the low skilled jobs are going up. It’s wild. Good luck getting teachers at current pay scale.
Slightly Fast Eddie says:
July 25, 2023 at 12:51 pm
Wage increases for full-timers will bring their average top rate to $49 per hour — making them the highest-paid delivery drivers in the U.S., the union said.
WTF am I doing wrong? Holy f**k!
Yea, let me go to college, and then work a job that is mentally stressful, and extremely challenging, all to get paid like chit. Sure. Sign me up! Teaching is dead.
Slightly Fast Eddie says:
July 25, 2023 at 12:51 pm
Wage increases for full-timers will bring their average top rate to $49 per hour — making them the highest-paid delivery drivers in the U.S., the union said.
WTF am I doing wrong? Holy f**k!
Eddie, he put his time in, he started on night shift working 12AM to 8AM , would come home and then work for me in the contracting business 6 days a week, never made it easy for him… Adam was never a snowflake. Even now he goes to work 20 minutes early and helps the loader ,load his truck. He is extremely dedicated to his job, unlike somebody like Pumpkin who thinks everybody owes him something. Adam is more on BRTs level. Dedicated who is trying to make a difference. The job is not a cakewalk…deliveries in snow, 100 degree days, 25 below days, drivers who are always cutting the UPS drivers off, and women always flirting with him. He is a big strong guy over 6 foot, great shape does over 20,000 steps a day, but happily married with two kids. I am extremely proud of the kid who lost his Mom @ 5 and never quit on life and used that for an excuse. Sorry thats my 2 cents worth. And yes he graduated college.
Left Wing,
Hoping by the end of next Summer. Got an exterior painting estimate and 5 vinyl double hungs. Slowly turning this home turn key. Right now I’d say it would go for nearly a million. Looking to spend around 75K to get 1.2M. Working on all aesthetics. Going to restain all of the Maple/Oak trim. Wainscoat down to the basement from the kitchen. Doing front door next.
DeSantis Cuts Campaign Staff by Over a Third, Aiming to Rein In Costs
His presidential campaign, facing questions from allies and donors about the strength of his candidacy, has now eliminated the jobs of 38 aides this month.
One DeSantis donor, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid, said that he expected the next quarter of fund-raising to be an extremely tough slog and that donor interest in Mr. DeSantis has dried up considerably.
Old,
Got a decent quote from Dor-Win. Will let you know how it goes. Price was so reasonable, I threw in two more on the third floor. There is no cash discount, which means they are legit.
Raining hard here in Monmouth but North Jersey looks crazy. How many drown in their cars today?
Lightning looks crazy too.
https://www.lightningmaps.org/
Jim,
Touching story, for real. Your son sounds like a great guy! :)
Very Stable,
Said it before is a Genius in Florida relative to Florida Man/Woman. Outside of the cokehead sharknado sweaty waste land he’s out of his league.
Just look at his resume/financial disclosure. Could not parlay his Ivy League Law Degree and Dept of Defense career into serious income. Earning that serious income and respect is the blessing that the establishment understand you are a serious reliable person to play with others.
Once serious income and respect earned you move into politics. If you move into politics before making money, you have an inferiority complex vis a vis the power brokers that you’ll deal with and you’ll do stupid and illegal things to impress them.
https://youtu.be/C-TSvxZ40RQ?t=193
Juice Box says:
July 25, 2023 at 3:54 pm
Raining hard here in Monmouth but North Jersey looks crazy. How many drown in their cars today?
Lightning looks crazy too.
I’ve never seen as much lightning as I did out here between Phoenix and Flagstaff out on the open plains. Some really impressive lightning shows, almost nightly! There’s something about the Prescott area that draws this activity.
115F yesterday evening on the way to the botanical garden (recommend btw!) and 118F at noon today. Temps are so sticky, they start at noon and just persist through midnight.
Jim,
Meant no disrespect. I know UPS is a tough job. I am only talking about how pathetic a teaching salary has become. It did not keep up with inflation.
Fast Eddie says:
July 25, 2023 at 3:57 pm
Eddie, Keep up the good work showing overpriced real estate. I enjoy reading the listings and wondering where all the BS ends.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 25, 2023 at 5:33 pm
Jim,
Meant no disrespect.
Pumpkin, Its all about lemons and what you make out of life. I have always been a blue collar worker, yet I have a lot to show for my years of labor…including 4 grandkids that I adore. No real offense taken.
Wonder if after Disney and Bud Lite, he will try to sue Barbie next?
DeSantisNeeds CorzinesStatePoliceDriver says:
July 25, 2023 at 4:11 pm
Very Stable,
Said it before is a Genius in Florida relative to Florida Man/Woman. Outside of the cokehead sharknado sweaty waste land he’s out of his league.
Just look at his resume/financial disclosure. Could not parlay his Ivy League Law Degree and Dept of Defense career into serious income. Earning that serious income and respect is the blessing that the establishment understand you are a serious reliable person to play with others.
Once serious income and respect earned you move into politics. If you move into politics before making money, you have an inferiority complex vis a vis the power brokers that you’ll deal with and you’ll do stupid and illegal things to impress them.
That’s a nice story ” Jim” even if by telling it you have to attack someone else.
Jim,
Worked two years in the post office. How I built up the down payment for my lottery ticket. I’m def white collar, but not afraid of blue collar work and respect it. You know you can’t be a landlord if you don’t get your hands dirty…that’s the real profit. At least when you are small..
That’s what’s funny. Real estate can beat the chit out of the stock market. Why I can’t sell it. No income producing asset is comparable to the income percentage my rental brings in…and that’s with way below market rates. My one tenant…gave them their first rental increase and they will keep coming now. They are only paying $1050 for a 2 bedroom. Getting f’ing robbed and could be a d’k about it, but won’t. Of course you don’t hear about landlords like this in the newspapers who subsidize below market rates. You just hear about how they are greedy and evil. Meanwhile, I am doing more for this family by giving them below market cost than all the “look at me” assholes.
If this rental market keeps up…i will soon make more money from a single rental than I do at my job. That’s f’ing crazy.
Single rental…meaning one property.
And honestly….clifton has improved since i bought it. The neighborhood is super nice with now maturing tree lined streets. This lottery ticket is going to keep paying. Unbelievable.
ExEx says:
July 25, 2023 at 6:16 pm
That’s a nice story ” Jim” even if by telling it you have to attack someone else.
Stoned much EX? The attack from Pumpkin came first, Your brain has to be so jumbled that you have a hard time figuring things out. Go back and read step by step, see where Pumpkin made his statement The Great Pumpkin says:
July 25, 2023 at 2:37 pm
Then look where I made my statement
over a half hour later.
Jim says:
July 25, 2023 at 3:14 pm
Then look where I made my statement .
Can you figure that out???????Are you ever sober???
Here is a quick pot story for you. My wifes ex brother in law has been smoking pot since high school, he is now 70 years old, and has come down with mouth and throat cancer. He has told doctor he has never smoked a day in his life. You stoners dont think smoking pot is smoking. He has the audacity to argue with the doctor that smoking pot is not smoking because it is all natural. He has a 50/50 chance of survival. I guess he will do gummies from here on out, pretty sure he has lost some brain cells. I am amazed by you.
7:22 you seem tense.
Jim,
I honestly wasn’t attacking, but that’s just comes with the disrespect for the teaching “profession.” It’s a truly “professional” job, but gets zero respect. It really is amazing. I don’t get it. People claim teaching is easy, meanwhile, they couldn’t even handle teaching their own kids with guided activities with step by step instructions. Jokers.
Was referencing the “pandemic” teaching experiment that failed miserably because most parents suck at being parents. Oops…did I say that?!!!
ExEx says:
July 25, 2023 at 7:28 pm
7:22 you seem tense.
Your stoned! No surprise there.
It’s typical really Jim. That a low life like you finds something they can bully someone about and they use that to try & humiliate another person.
Don’t like weed? Don’t smoke it. It’s that simple.
The Great Pumpkin says:
July 25, 2023 at 7:01 pm
Pumpkin, be very careful when you sell that multi, government will recapture all your write offs and tax the total value that you sell it for. Capital gains can be nasty on a building over $600,000.
I have one 4 unit building left that I am going to try to hold until I am 80, I have updated all 4 kitchens with new cabinets and granite tops, I plan on putting in all new windows(Anderson or equal) even though I put new windows in 30 years ago(showing there age). Driveways paved etc. The building is within a short walk to the new Thorolabs building.
It seems government is always your partner.
The market seems to be over its preoccupation with the Fed, no longer pricing itself off the Fed cycle. Instead, it’s pricing in an anticipated earnings recovery. If earnings growth reverts to its historical trend of 6%, at an equity risk premium of 4.2% the market is fairly valued at 20x. But with the gap between the rate cycle and the anticipated soft landing getting wider by the day, a lot needs to go right here for the rally to be justified.
At 20.2x, much of the early cycle playbook has been priced in. There is more room for gains based on the typical 40-50% expansion in multiples during the early phase of recoveries (which would take the S&P 500 to 21-22x), but the Fed might throw some cold water on the bulls if it stays higher for longer. A recession, if and when it hits, could hurt too.
ExEx says:
July 25, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Simple question for a real simpleton, can you read and comprehend?
I’m telling you guys: There is something deeply unwell in our society right now.
You’re not going to see it if you’re a member of the select, far right-hand side of the bell curve. If you and your peer group are educated, financially successful, and healthy, our society probably feels better than ever.
But, travel outside that bubble that most of us here—myself included—inhabit, and you’ll notice a pervasive sense that something just isn’t right.
I don’t know what it is. It’s more than economic. It’s more than physical health, or anything material (though it certainly creates ripple effects across all those domains).
It’s nothing less than metaphysical. For lack of a better term, it’s a vibe shift.
It’s a sense of apathy that you feel emanating from far too many people—especially from the young, who should have all the hope in the world. It’s a lack of aspiration, of seeking a better life and better conditions for oneself.
It’s dead eyes. Pop music and cinema that just feel lifeless. Teenagers not caring enough to get their drivers licenses anymore (or even to sneak a couple beers with friends). A world where too few of us feel like we have a purpose, and too many of us are finding nothing but despair on 6” phone screens.
I don’t know what the causes are. I’m sure social media, economic malaise, Covid lockdowns, fentanyl, and every other reason we hear about factor into it.
All of those reasons, though, in aggregate, still feel insufficient. They might be symptoms that compound the underlying disease, but they are not, in and of themselves, the root cause.
I also don’t know what the solution is. I wish I did. I’m one small person just trying to spread positive vibes on social media and trying to raise my kids right.
But I am 100% certain that something is wrong. And I hate seeing it, and I wish there were anything I could do about it.
https://twitter.com/robertmsterling/status/1682876865772503045?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Def weird that a lot of kids don’t even care about getting a license, but maybe a generational shift we don’t understand yet.
ofA’s points out that longer dated $SPX puts haven’t been this cheap in “modern times”:
“Since our data began in 2008, it has never cost less to protect against an S&P drawdown in the next 12 months.” H/t @themarketear