Jobs Day!

From Morningstar:

July Jobs Report Forecast: Few Signs of a Slowing Economy

Forecasts for the July U.S. jobs report call for yet another month of healthy gains in the labor market, with no signs of a recession. Still, if the report comes in on target, economists see little reason for the Federal Reserve to respond with yet another increase in interest rates from their already-high levels. While job growth is solid, it is down from peak levels, and as long as inflation continues its moderating trend, that should keep the Fed on the sidelines.

“The reality is that the labor market is strong, and that’s a big part of the reason the economy has been so resilient,” says AllianceBernstein chief economist Eric Winograd.

After the June jobs report showed solid increases, economists expect another round of similar gains. Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 200,000, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. This follows an increase of 209,000 in June, and it would be down substantially from the 339,000 increase seen in May.

“While the labor market has been strong, there is some evidence that it is gradually starting to decelerate,” Winograd says. “I don’t want to say ‘weakened’ because it isn’t weakening. It is getting strong at a slower pace.”

The monthly jobs report is also notoriously volatile, and consensus forecasts are often off by a wide margin. Winograd notes that going back to early 2022, economists have tended to underestimate the pace of job growth: “Forecasters have been too low in14 out of the last 15 months.”

Economists predict the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%, in line with levels seen since early 2022. Kevin Nicholson, a chief investment officer at RiverFront Investment Group, points to the rate at which employers are filling in vacancies as a factor keeping the unemployment rate steady. “We’re replacing workers at the same level as we are adding more groups, in the sense that you have retirees that roll off payrolls and you have new workers that are added to the payrolls,” he says.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

116 Responses to Jobs Day!

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    $AMZN Incredible case study of how to (a) make the Street to dramatically lower their EPS estimates, then (b) “beating” these. EPS for this quarter fell -19% to 0.34 EPS since January. Meanwhile, stock rose +53%.

    Then, a 0.65 EPS beat!

    CFO will get a huge bonus. 👏 👏 👏

  3. grim says:

    At first glance, that jobs report is looking a bit ugly.

  4. Very Stable Genius says:

    aren’t we trying to cool it down? Economy is running sizzling hot

    grim says:
    August 4, 2023 at 8:38 am
    At first glance, that jobs report is looking a bit ugly.

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Am I an idiot or did the markets just set up the ultimate spread play?

    $SPX Up 103.9% in the same time frame that $TLT is down 43.7%

    If now isn’t the time, I have to believe we’re getting close.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is wild to witness.

    “We’re one hot jobs print away from an absolute Ice Age hitting the RE sector if yields advance towards 5% we’re looking at 9+% mortgage rates and deteriorating margins for the big builders that have kept a bit of activity afloat.”

  7. Bystander says:

    Drama queen. People are morons buying at these prices and mortgage levels. Nothing is saving this 3 year bubble from collapsing. One more hike ain’t changing it. The only sizzle in this economy has been burger flippers getting 25/hr while rest of get zilch wage increases.

  8. ExEx says:

    Amgen FTW!!

  9. trick says:

    Last few recent comps from our area
    List $709 closed $762
    List $830 closed $880
    List $679 closed $770
    2 under
    List $579 closed $550
    List $1.1 closed $999

  10. 3b says:

    Bystander: This madness can’t continue forever, I know I have been saying it, and I have been “wrong”, but I just can’t see how this continues.

  11. Libturd says:

    It won’t.

  12. The Great Pumpkin says:

    A big reason home prices ran up was because of a tech bull run + wfh that allowed very well paid people to move to anywhere and outbid locals

    That trend is reversing HARD.

    Lots of layoffs in tech. Very few are hiring remote anymore. Hybrid by default.

    There is nobody who wants to buy your zoomtown home at 2021 prices anymore.

    It’s over. With low transaction volume it might take awhile though.

  13. Bystander says:

    “Lots of layoffs in tech. Very few are hiring remote anymore. Hybrid by default.”

    Clueless as usual. I live and breathe this stuff. There are plenty of remote options. I had one with Zillow but won’t continue with it as lower base than ask and want offer more in RSUs. The problem is that they don’t adjust for high cost locations very well. I ain’t taking a job with same pay and less benefits or less pay and better benefits. It has to be a big step-up. 150k seems like a king’s ransom to other areas of country, yet living in NYC/SF/Seattle/LA, it is average now. You also have idiotic Citi-group which can’t hire b/c forcing 3 days a week downtown. They keep moving roles to contract bc easier to hire. The problem is that recruiters are morons who live in other areas of country. I had one tell me “huge rate” SVP level and it was 100/hr with no benefits. SVPs at Citi make 230K base or more easy. I had to explain to the idiot that 100/hr is not same 208k as perm rate. The wage battle around NYC is real.

  14. Bystander says:

    This market amazes me. Want a perm job? HR intake, workday submission, assessments, 4 rounds of interviews and probably no offer or ghosting after two month process. Wamt a contract job? Immediate hire, one interview. That is the tech job market now.

  15. Bystander says:

    Back to the mines but here you go Blumpy. This pretty much confirms that NYC is never going back to way it was. Streets and sidewalks have been narrowed, driving around these structures has been a shit show and it looks horrendous overall. The city has made in permanent. Foot traffic and driving traffic could never go back to pre-pandemic with this law.

    The New York City Council on Thursday approved a bill making the city’s pandemic-era outdoor dining scheme permanent. The program was first instituted in 2020 to aid the restaurant industry, which had been devastated by the pandemic. Many restaurants built sheds in the street and added tables on sidewalks to allow diners to eat outside, avoiding indoor capacity limits and air quality concerns. Under the new bill, the roadway sheds will have to be taken down in winter. Restaurants will also need to obtain licenses for the structures, and pay a fee based on location and square footage.

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Remote is dead. The only people doing it are the ones that were doing it pre-pandemic.

  17. No One says:

    Supply and demand. For a remote job, why would they adjust pay for the employees’ cost of living decisions?
    Seems like you keep beating your head against this same wall.
    Maybe they want to fill the jobs with 28 year-old immigrants squeezing living with 4 guys in a 2br apartment in a lower rent district. Still a lifestyle upgrade for them.
    It sounds like IT jobs are treated as a commodity, where there’s lots of lower cost supply, unless one distinguishes oneself strongly within a firm’s management, and then for whatever reason, they don’t want to replace you. I guess in investment banks they hire for projects, and are wary of accumulating permanent employees.

  18. ExEx says:

    12:09 staaaawp

  19. ExEx says:

    Indeed, Salesforce, Airbnb, Meta, Dropbox and Uber are the companies with the largest amount of sublease space on the market in San Francisco. Data from Cresa shows that some of that space has been listed since 2019, but a big chunk was just listed: More than 1 million square feet of subleased offices hit the market in the last quarter.

  20. Bystander says:

    No one,

    Not beating my head. This is the truth. Supply and demand but don’t underestimate how many IT workers are needed. Blumpy thinks they just layoff IT staff with no impact. It is quick juice for a few qrts then it impacts growth and delivery. You lose a few key people bc burn them out and it becomes crash and burn. Right now, the need is tremendous for contract roles but they are not being filled. Same ones get recycled over and over. I get 20 contacts a day but why would I consider it if perm? There is no easy solution for businesses. They are trying to find talent to fill holes left by last year’s layoffs. They don’t want to grow perm but losing knowledgeable staff is detrimental. It is always a problem to find balance ITO vs. perm.

    “IT jobs are treated as a commodity”

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    Back from Wildwood… talked to a few vendors on the Boardwalk, said it was a so-so summer with regards to sales in tee-shirts, hats, beach novelties, etc. The boardwalk was packed, lots of families, very little riff raff. It’s for the kids, of course. Everything is costly, too tired to go on a rant. It’s a losing battle trying to compromise in purchases. I seriously don’t know if people are making money or up to their eyeballs in debt. The amount of credit card debt at historic levels tells me it’s the latter.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    From yesterday’s thread:

    Universal Basic Income

    LOLOLOLOL!!! God, that’s funny.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    Re: San Francisco

    I got a sense of the charm that city once held when I was there in May. I have a feeling it’s a shell of its former self. I would have liked to see the city in its prime. Perhaps if the residents become weary enough, they’ll start electing right-leaning candidates and restore the city to its former glory. Duping the voters to vote democrat and fleecing the masses is becoming tiresome… or one would believe. But hardcore democrats will forever be mired in a state of denial by believing leftist ideology is the path to utopia.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 4, 2023 at 1:36 pm
    From yesterday’s thread:

    Universal Basic Income.

    Sign me up.

  25. ExEx says:

    Don’t count the Bay Area out just yet.
    Maybe some good ol’ repurposing of those office
    units into affordable housing will prevail.

  26. Phoenix says:

    IT workers?

    I wish I could get one who could eliminate the delayed keystrokes issue I have when charting. Really fking annoying when you have an emergency. Those guys from Mumbai aren’t up to the task.

  27. Phoenix says:

    ExEx says:
    August 4, 2023 at 2:20 pm
    Don’t count the Bay Area out just yet.
    Maybe some good ol’ repurposing of those office
    units into affordable housing will prevail.

    Affordable housing. 😂😂😂😂😂😂

    In California. 😂😂😂😂😂

  28. Phoenix says:

    Only affordable housing in America is in West Virginia

  29. ExEx says:

    The price you pay to live in WVA is far too expensive.

  30. ExEx says:

    Come on baby take a ride with me:

  31. trick says:

    We vacationed on Lake Champlain last week, took a day trip up to montreal since it was just around the corner. It was packed and very expensive, one cool thing was the botanical gardens. Also drove over to look at schools for my younger son in Burlington, Surprised at the number of homeless there were in Bernie country. Trip did not start out well when we realized we forgot the passports 1:30hr into the trip. 5 1/2 hrs turned into 9.

  32. Fabius Maximus says:

    Trick, what did you think of the schools. Heading up there in 2 weeks as the kid wants to look at Champlain and UVT.

  33. Libturd says:

    Burlington in the Winter is very different than in the Summer.

    UVT is the college of partying skiers. Excellent for resort management and similar disciplines.

    Champlain is a monster lake. Really beautiful and peaceful. Used to go there frequently as a kid. I spent most of my high school and college breaks in Vermont skiing. Probably the toughest trail I ever skied was the liftline at the top of Devil’s Fiddle on Bear in Killy. A close second was attempting Nosedive at Stowe when the mountain was an ice rink. A friend I was skiing with fell. He wiped early and ended up in the woods about a mile down the mountain. There was no stopping. How he didn’t get killed, I have no clue. His equipment shattered. He was very lucky.

  34. Libturd says:

    Looks like the lift is no longer.

  35. Libturd says:

    Nosedive with beautiful conditions. Just a gorgeous run.

  36. trick says:

    Went to look at Champlain, son wants to do game programming. It is directly across the street from UVM and a 2 minute walk to downtown. So small school feel with a big school town. Older son laughed at the size compared to virginia tech but it would fit the younger one perfectly. Want to visit is again once the kids are in class to get more of the vibe.

    I have a 17ft side console and it took a beating, wind was blowing north up the lake all week. Fishing was tough but we were in a cove so kids had a blast tubing.

  37. trick says:

    As kids we used to ski Stowe every year with the family, probably 30+ cousins would take over the B and B

  38. Fabius Maximus says:

    I love taking the ferry across the lake.

    I met Mrs Fab at Mt Snow. I started skiing in my 30s so I never made it past blues. I never found boots that were comfortable. They would always cut down the circulation in my feet so after a few hours I was done and in the lodge.

  39. trick says:

    Fab, My father started in is 4o’s and until the day he passed it is all he wanted to do(and golf). He couldn’t wait until he was old enough to get free skiing at Hunter. In HS and college I was on the ski team and wore 1/2 size smaller boots, talk about lack of circulation.

  40. Fast Eddie says:

    Americans owe a record $1 trillion in credit card debt

    Any questions?

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I never skied, only snowboarded. I used to be obsessed in high school. Before we had licenses, took our snowboards to the little hill by the recycling center in clifton. Boizzard of 96, we lived there. We built a huge jump, and would pull people for speed with rope system or good ol fashioned running push if we wanted to make it quick. Where I learned to do 540s, flips, and all sorts of fun tricks.

    Then my senior year. CHS ski club night. This was when vernon first put up that giant park at the bottom of the mtn. The enormous double almost killed me. First of all, you needed to bomb the hill to get enough speed to clear it. Second, night skiing…aka ice skiing. Done the jump many times before. Bombed the hill running up the jump and an ice rut was created at the lip of the double. It caused me to lose control of the jump, unable to rotate out of the flip it put me in, and landed on my head (no helmets those days). My friends said that I literally hit the ground and slid on my head for a couple of feet. This is like a 40 ft double, most people would never even be able to go off this kind of jump. I woke up the next day and had no recollection that I went snowboarding or the hospital. Bad concussion. Lucky I didn’t break my neck.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    SF will be fine long-term. It was in a bubble. Such an enormous concentration of money produced in that area due to internet. It’s slowly unwinding.

    It will always be a top spot to live. Why? The weather. It’s perfect. Never too cold and never too hot. Just like SD…it will always be expensive because the weather makes it an ideal place to live.

  43. 3b says:

    Lots of good memories from sling Hunter Mountain back in the day, and the HVI afterwards. Happy Hour, 5 beers for a dollar.

  44. leftwing says:

    Mad River Glen, ski it if you can. Lots of good VT memories, as a kid and with mine…

    Phoenix, which software you guys use. Really only two vendors…

  45. 3b says:

    Fast : We were close to a trillion after the first quarter, we have now broken through!!

  46. 3b says:

    Burlington nice little town, and Lake Champlain is beautiful. Also like the ferry, some fun times.

  47. Fast Eddie says:


    O’Biden says the economy is great! Charge it! 30% interest means nothing! We’re prestigious!

  48. Juice Box says:

    My kid had his iPhone lifted from his pocket today while in the candy store at the American dream mall. He was there on a camp trip to the amusement park, one of the other kids in the group saw it happen, the guy bumped into my son intentionally to distract him and then ran away. It’s an older discontinued iPhone not worth much and I did not have insurance on it so I am not filing a police report. I did speak to the mall management people, they did not care to even take a report. I insisted that they at least take my contact info. Why is an adult male hanging around at a candy store in a mall anyway?

    When I told my son when he is in crowds he should always guard his stuff as it can happen anywhere. He accused me of being a wacist. I told him I never asked the race of the person who took the phone. He told me what the persons race was and I said it does not matter, anyone can commit a crime don’t let your guard down in crowds end of story etc. Hopefully he will take this lesson to heart. New Amazon refurbished same model iPhone will be delivered tomorrow, too bad I still have to take it to the AT&T store to get the SIM card for it.

  49. Juice Box says:

    How does a snowboarder introduce himself?

    “Ohhhh, sorry dude!”

    I love me some freshies, perhaps a fall trip? Too bad Park City does not open until Thanksgiving…

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    O’Biden is campaigning on eliminating credit card debt as soon as all the student loans are eliminated. He cares.

  51. Fast Eddie says:

    In 1981, mortgage rates peaked at a jaw-dropping 18.53%. Still, the average home price in the second quarter of 1981 was $84,300 — even adjusted for inflation, that’s about $287,020, which is far less than the average price of $495,100 in the second quarter of 2023.

  52. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Nailed it!

    Juice Box says:
    August 4, 2023 at 9:45 pm
    How does a snowboarder introduce himself?

    “Ohhhh, sorry dude!”

    I love me some freshies, perhaps a fall trip? Too bad Park City does not open until Thanksgiving…

  53. The Great Pumpkin says:


    How the hell is this economy still growing with real estate at a standstill? Most of the sales are made up with new home sales that help lower the mortage rates. Housing drives the economy, right now it is frozen, so when does this economy crash? Because I don’t see how it doesn’t under these conditions. This economy defies logic.

  54. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Ughh….this is killing me with my rental. Do I really want to go through another cycle that might be really hard on renters during the bust? Stressing me the f out right now, not an easy decision.

  55. BRT says:

    When I told my son when he is in crowds he should always guard his stuff as it can happen anywhere. He accused me of being a wacist. I told him I never asked the race of the person who took the phone.

    The same goes for not letting anyone close the distance on you in shady areas. I see so many people ignore that rule out of fear of being labeled a bigot these days. I’ll be in Atlantic City next week, that rule applies to everyone there. I’ll be in Ocean City as well, there that’s not the case. I think the late 90s/early 2000s really made people forget about the importance of street smarts.

  56. leftwing says:

    “When I told my son when he is in crowds he should always guard his stuff as it can happen anywhere. He accused me of being a wacist”

    Ballpark, how old?

    “Hopefully he will take this lesson to heart. New Amazon refurbished same model iPhone will be delivered tomorrow, too bad I still have to take it to the AT&T store to get the SIM card for it.”

    Have him purchase, pay for, and deal with the telecoms. May make the lesson more pointed…

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He has a point.

    “Its a funny world we live in when investors start to believe that 30x earnings or 15x to 20x sales is a good deal. Back before the easy money bubble, I remember when 20x earnings and 10x sales what talked about as getting expensive. That is what 12 years of non stop easy money does to the market. It still hasn’t broken yet. The pull back last year didn’t even put a dent into the animal spirits of this market. Makes me super bearish. Apple at 30x earnings with 7% growth? I remember when it was 15x earnings and had 2x that growth. This market is broken as reality has long been abandoned on valuation.”

  58. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s a market where you don’t chase fundamentals because you will lose. It’s a market where you ride the emotional wave from stock to stock to sector to sector. That’s the only money being made for a couple years now. Follow the animal spirits. Ride them up and then short them down. Pure greed, but it is what it is.

  59. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Fascinating chart showing % of residents paying over $1,000/month for their cars.

    Fun fact: More than 1 in 5 shoppers in Texas and Wyoming committed to a monthly payment over $1,000/mth in Q2 (driven by purchases of large trucks)

  60. Old realtor says:

    It isn’t about left or right. The problem is believing politicians have a solution.

  61. Juice Box says:

    Leftwing – He will be 14 soon they grow up so quick. The wacist remark came from the bus ride home for an hour as talked about the iphone robbery amongst the other camp kids the remark was made by someone. These kids are practically country bumpkins with money, they don’t have any inkling of what city life can be like. I really have nothing to complain about with him, by the time I was his age we had left the Bronx but the bad habits followed. We formed a gang and rode our BMX bikes around causing mayhem wherever we went.

    A little bit more about him. He is a high honor roll student, plays the saxophone in the regular band and jazz band in school and also is a tremendous soccer player. This year we joined a new travel league “EDP” as they have a remarkable 75% college placement rate for players. It a very very competitive, and my son does not want to be the next Messi he just loves to play defense and smash other players who think they are the next Messi. He has been at practice nearly every weeknight all summer as well as goes to camp all day where he is a counselor in training and has been taking care of younger kids etc, learning CPR and how to be a lifeguard. I still pay for it but it could turn into a summer job when he turns 15.

    As I said nothing to complain about now. He even has a GF and seems happy enough. It was not always that way, we had to have him go see a child counselor ever other week when he was younger. He is smart and when he did not get his way he was destructive and could not control his anger, so we gave him someone he could talk to that was not his parents for a few years. He was a challenge for sure he even called the cops on me one time late at night when I made him turn off his computer and go to bed. He was 9 years old at the time, cops did come too….Fun Times!!!!

  62. BRT says:

    Juice, my students last year they live in an isolated bubble. There have been zero fights in the school for a decade….ZERO! They don’t understand kids from other places, especially the city. One of the kids mouthed off to some Philly kids at Seaside post prom and they beat his a$$. They showed me the video and they couldn’t understand why they would do that. They couldn’t fathom that it was even a possibility.

  63. Jim says:

    Juice Box says:
    August 5, 2023 at 10:33 am
    He will be 14 soon they grow up so quick.

    Juice, It sounds like you are doing a great job bringing up your son. Stick to your convictions…. because it looks like you are doing all the right things.
    Being a parent is not easy task, and really a thankless job.

    Short story, when I was in second grade (1958) we walked to school about 1 mile (Lincoln Park). There was a kid in my class that was about a football field behind us who was running across main street back and forth… showing off. I was with 3 other kids and we all agreed he was a jerk. Next thing we knew, brakes squealed , a thud, and we all turned around and kid was laid out on road… dead. I can still see his lifeless body, how could a parent not teach their son to stay out of the road? I still remember this now and am glad I taught my kids to be fearful and aware of all your surroundings. It was a life lesson I learned @ 7 that has stuck with me.

  64. Phoenix says:

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 5, 2023 at 7:58 am
    O’Biden is campaigning on eliminating credit card debt as soon as all the student loans are eliminated. He cares.

    Well, maybe that will help the old boomer lady where I live. Her car has been sitting for the longest time needing a repair she cannot afford.

    Now she can have it fixed by one of the rip off auto repair shops in my area. One actually claimed to do my alignment, but my dashcam showed me the car was just moved from one side of the parking lot to the other.

    Gotcha. But don’t expect the PoPo to help you with this, or an Iphone theft. They just want to pull over 20 something girls and hook up with them, or beat a black dude to death over a “possible” crime they committed.

  65. Phoenix says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    August 5, 2023 at 9:08 am
    Ughh….this is killing me with my rental. Do I really want to go through another cycle that might be really hard on renters during the bust? Stressing me the f out right now, not an easy decision.

    Take some Midol. It’s over the counter, no prescription necessary.

  66. Phoenix says:

    Have him purchase, pay for, and deal with the telecoms. May make the lesson more pointed…

    Bingo. When my daughter wanted her clothes and her mother refused to provide them, I had her talk to the police officer and beg him to help her.

    She got a life lesson on how they aren’t there to help you when someone steals from you.

  67. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I’m starting to not see the point in buying a house anymore.

    – Most houses I’ve looked at are over valued.
    – Property taxes (in Texas) are wild.
    – I have to maintain everything.
    – Mortgage would be more than my rent.
    – No guarantee value would increase.
    – Less amenities than a luxury apartment.

    Am I crazy for feeling this way? I feel crazy for feeling this way.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How many others are starting to think the same thing? I’m guessing many. Once the opportunity of serious appreciation is gone housing loses its luster. Game is almost over. New cycle will come after the market takes a bat to the head.

    Today it’s just a place to live with a massive monthly mortgage payment.

  69. Bystander says:

    JFC..the roaring 20s / pat on the back has gone to dark shite..

  70. Juice Box says:

    Those Ukrainian sea drones are something else, streaming video? Are they using Elon’s satellites?

  71. BRT says:


    I have had a standard lecture to my kids every time we are in the parking lot or crossing the street. I must have said 2000 times in my life already, “the goal here is to not die”. It’s tiring and as smart as my kids are, they just didn’t seem to get it. Until, we came home in a traffic jam, saw sneakers on the ground with a tarp laid over a guy. They gotta see it to believe it. Now I just show them youtube highlights of people flying out of cars for not wearing seatbelts.

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:


    It’s all part of the cycle. It has to go down in order to start this cycle over and reach new highs next cycle. If this isn’t roaring 20s for you, I don’t know what to say…it’s been one hell of a bubble run. So big, it has to deflate now in order to grow again.

    No investor that is sane is looking at any investment right now as a good buy. Nothing. It’s all been squeezed. Nothing left, but down.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    When apple is starting to show weakness. It’s over. They are the king of the market. Amazon….might just be people more people forced to buy their cheap chit out of necessity, not because they want to.

  74. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This dude is from Australia. Nails it.

    “Why would anyone care about their personal debt when the govt of the day DGAF!!!

    Maybe people are using their CC to send food to Ukraine?

    Why not wrack up $100k in debt if the goverment will inflate it to near worthless value in a few years.

    I didn’t buy an overpriced house here 3 years ago .. they all near doubled and everyone who overleveraged won

    I lost .. now I have to get back in as we’ve created a dual class system in Oz (home owners or not)

    The discipline needs to come from the top and there isn’t any

    Median house here $1m most Gen Z have zero chance of ever even saving a deposit without wealthy (home owning) parents

    At least we own outright a reasonable apartment we can hand down and the kids have a nice share portfolio (they are 4 and 6)

    But the system is broken as shit
    @rationalaussie and others would

  75. Very Stable Genius says:


    “They just want to pull over 20 something girls and hook up with them, or beat a black dude to death over a “possible” crime they committed.”

  76. Bystander says:

    They market started collapsed one year ago and then went on a tear since March. You now claim another cycle needs to start? Huh..seems like we have a problem if these cycles are now only 5-6mos apart.

  77. Chi in SD says:

    About to sit through David Kelly from JPM. Anyone have a snarky question to ask? Maybe I will invoke The Great Pumpkin?

  78. The Great Pumpkin says:


    I am in the position that this is a furious bear market rally. It was a false bottom. There are too many animal spirits out there still. They need to be crushed. Charts like Microsoft looking like a double top. It’s getting ready to get the rug pulled. Might blow up even more, but it is extremely dangerous now to be holding, imho.

    Am I correct? Time will tell, but I have to go with this position based on what I see combined with my gut.

    Bystander says:
    August 5, 2023 at 3:17 pm
    They market started collapsed one year ago and then went on a tear since March. You now claim another cycle needs to start? Huh..seems like we have a problem if these cycles are now only 5-6mos apart.

  79. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Why bear market rally? When you account for inflation, we aren’t close to all time highs. So, it’s deceiving.

  80. Libturd says:

    “When apple is starting to show weakness.”

    Weakness? Noone purchased the iPhone 14 because it had absolutely no compelling features not available on the iPhone 13. Just wait until after this Christmas when all of the iPhone 13 owners have no choice but to upgrade since their batteries are shot.

  81. Libturd says:

    Oh, fuel prices have increased due to the high temps at the refineries in the Southwest. Not due to the economy or the Japanese lending rate.

  82. Phoenix says:

    Iphone battery replacement on a 13 is not expensive, plus if you have it done at Apple it’s genuine and will last you another two years.

    I have a 13 and it has been very good. Except for Siri, I have had waitresses I like better.

    Battery life is excellent. Camera is good. Happy with it, my first Iphone, got rid of Google because even if Apple cares little about my security, Google opens the door for criminals and corporations.

    Google maps wins. Google assistant wins. Google phone hold/ screening wins.

    Iphone screen dims when it it in the sun, right when you need it the brightest.

    But at least you can take it to an Apple store and get a new Apple (real) battery put in.

    Plus 5 years of updates.

  83. The Great Pumpkin says:


    When Powell said no recession 10 days ago I started to worry…

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:


    We are actually on other ends now. Wow. You are bullish, while i am bearish. We both have been pretty on point over the years.

    Just remember, I was bullish entire last decade. I went bearish when i pulled everything in jan 2022z.

  85. RentL0rd says:

    Is nobody gonna talk about how the GOP tried to fake elect tDump? Or about the protective order – and what that could mean to him?

    Fat Eddy – I’m talking to you

  86. Fast Eddie says:

    Is nobody gonna talk about how the GOP tried to fake elect tDump?

    The GOP needs to take lessons from the democrats on how to steal elections. The dems are masters at theft, coercion and slight of hand.

    And it’s Fat Fuck Fast Eddie, get the name straight!!

  87. Very Stable Genius says:

    Trump gave $700 million of our taxes to his corporate buddies at Yellow who are going to set the record for the largest bankruptcy ever for a trucking firm. He did this while Yellow was under investigation for overcharging the DOD for freight services from 2005 to 2013.

  88. Fast Eddie says:

    Trump O’Biden gave $90 Billion of our taxes in the form of bailouts to his Union buddies to pad their retirement funds in exchange for votes.

    The bailout will direct funds to more than 200 nearly insolvent multiemployer pension plans due to corruption and mismanagement.

  89. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Smell that? Gotta love the smell of good ol corruption in the morning. It guarantees that there will always be a major economic bust. People can’t do the right thing. It’s sad.

  90. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Are there any real elections left in this world? All corrupted.

  91. Phoenix says:

    Tough old bird:

    “Of course, the money is nice, but it’s not the main reason for going again,” said Mr. Vasilyev, a vigorous man who makes regular use of the weights on the floor of his Soviet-era apartment.

    “I fight out of duty to the motherland,” he said. “Our grandfathers went all the way to Berlin in 1945 to ensure we not have an enemy country next door. We won’t allow America to install that.”

    “The body has a tumor — it is in Ukraine, and we have to cure it,” he told me. “The tumor comes from Americans who go places they have no need to go. Our task is clear and will be accomplished, justice restored, fascism defeated.”

    I asked him about Mr. Putin. “He was sent to Russia by God,” he said.

  92. 3b says:

    Feds Bowman says more rate hikes needed on Saturday. She used the plural as in more then one hike. Not that it will matter, nothing will stop this economy. Party on!

  93. NoStudamus says:

    Someone called out runaway inflation long before the FED got their act together.

  94. Nice SundayAM says:


    Tough old russkie, is just tough in vodka soaked talk, is Putin’s MAGA guy. Putin’s MAGA do Vodka, our OrangeHole MAGA do meth.

    Read up on Russia. It was created by pure force, requires pure force to keep it together. Problem is what happens when people fight back, that is the end of the Spanish, French, and English Empire. Russia was an empire that does not have the ability to continue to be so, no matter what Putin or anyone else does.

    For an in depth look at why see this ~1hr, video is from the ’92 and is dense because is a DOE, DOD, CIA Phd to Phd lecture, which means you got to sit down and shut up and turn off the Tik Tok 10 seconds attention span.

    BTW – That post of your about the oncologist that off herself and kid is a gigantic warning to what happens to people in the human services field that face continual amount of steady stress and constant frustation, everything is going good until the least expected stressor pushes 1 mm more over the trigger line.

  95. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Party is over. Cycle coming to an end. Deflation will be here soon enough.

    Raising rates now is completely pointless. Higher rates will do nothing now, but absolutely destroy anything left of the housing market.

    3b, if i can teach you one valuable lesson that you miss over and over…reversion to the mean. It never fails. You did it with suburbs/city last decade. You did it with wfh (zoom ordering employees in by the way). Now doing it with rates. Understand that this wasn’t the biggest fastest rate hike in history. What do you think happens next? Keep going up? Yea, right, at some point it’s going to crash to the mean.

  96. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Don’t usually correct typos, but will on this one.

    *Was the biggest

  97. Nice SundayAM says:


    This is for you. Pay attention a bit long and dense but has a nice british accent.

    It has a corollary about a corrupt (China) economy and what to expect if the next POTUS is a GOP/MAGA and they do damage DOJ and kill rule of law in the USA, and what to expect of the economy vis-a-vis China like environment. In short it is not pretty – your deflation will be the leat of the problems.

  98. The Great Pumpkin says:


    Thanks for the share. This reaffirmed my feelings on China and the economy already. China is dead. India is the new china. There is no doubt about it. India is not ready yet, though. So, don’t a good economy over the next few years as the investment world and business world adjust to the new reality that China is not going to drive growth anymore…that has been sucked dry with nothing but debt left behind. Cathie Wood sees it, she totally abandoned China investment. Writing on the wall.

    If you people want growth in your investments this decade, you need to go where there will be growth…biotech (hated like f’k right now, but it’s the growth machine for next 10-20 years thanks to AI and supercomputers). Buy bitcoin and eth…have 5% to 10% in it. Be stupid not to.

    Think of right bow as the 1849 gold rush into AI. They are all chasing wrong chit. Think deeper and harder, where will this ai technology change the game and create chit people can’t even comprehend of now??? That’s right!! The intersection of biology and technology. BOOOOOm! Going to explode!

  99. Bystander says:

    “Raising rates now is completely pointless”

    Keep on raising. As a homeowner, I love it. Restrict the inventory, force those rich millennials to buy my home for 1.5m. A dumb bird told me that they are all getting paid huge sums of money at their jobs. My parents sold their 32K 1973 Morris County purchase for 157K in 1987. I deserve the same. The job market is super strong. Companies will just pay more in salary since they raised prices 100% instead of 25%. They are rolling in consumer dough as we never stop spending. Their stock prices will climb with all the revenue. Roaring 20s and beyond. Oh, and if the above does not happen then print 15T, bailout all businesses and to force it to grow. It is the way in America.

  100. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And you are going to have to have balls and invest in smaller companies embracing this intersection of technology. DNA is only one I have played. Look at RXRX. Now don’t go buying now, wait for the market to get hit, or better yet, just DCA every month into these companies…they will grow your money better than most. Another growth story outside of biotech…VLD. Produces for space x. This has a future.

  101. Fast Eddie says:

    Bystander 12:52,

    It’s party time! Bailouts for everyone! CC debt paid by tax dollars! Where’s my pony? I deserve a pony, too! And yes, my house is currently worth seven digits, because I say so! Pay up millennials, chubby Eddie needs more donuts.

  102. leftwing says:

    Americans are coddled pussies.

  103. Very Stable Genius says:

    Never bet against America

    “ It is the way in America.”

  104. ExEx says:

    But her eMails.

    Hunnnna Biden’s lap dance

    Tranny Book readings

  105. Nice SundayPM says:

    Ex Ex,

    My Hudson County roots tell me that a lot of OrangeHole’s flunkies including the 6 unindicted co-conspirators care nothing about any ideology but it was about money, money they would have made as gate keepers in a gigantic corruption machine.

    Look at SCOTUS Thomas. Talks a good “conservative” talk, but there is no difference between him and Sharp James in the way he behaves relative to selling his position. Only difference is one likes fat white women, the other fat black women.

    Same thing with DeSantis. Talks the talk, but the walk says “show me the money”. Just think about all the new books that Florida’s public school systems are going to buy to follow his new ideologically pure version of history. Look up who is going to provide them and you will see a connection. Again, no different that when some inner cities school systems force student to wear a school uniform that can only be found in certain shops at outrageous prices.

    With W Bush, the corruption was centered on anything to do with invasion, reconstruction, and post elected government rent seeking and outright theft in Iraq.

    With OrangeHole it was going to be the USA. Fortunately for this great country, at the end of the day they are all greedy corrupt jerks, that could not get out of each others way. If any of them had the talent of North Bergen mayor Nicholas Sacco, the country would have been screwed.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Actually worth buy a pick 6 and mega millions right now. Won’t miss the money, and a chance to change your life.

  107. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
    — Jesse Lauriston Livermore

  108. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You want to know how much money is out there and stupid people are? Look at the success of self storage…drop the mic .

  109. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you can’t make money off idiots, you are the IDIOT.

  110. The Great Pumpkin says:

    No bad karma either, giving the idiots exactly what they want

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