Dark clouds ahead, or too much pessimism?

From ROI-NJ:

Survey: Will N.J.’s economy remain as is or worsen by end of 2023?

How about that economy?

The answer may not be that good: 44% of 434 certified public accountants surveyed by the New Jersey Society of Certified Public Accountants believed New Jersey’s economy is expected to stay about the same during the second half of the year compared to the first half … but an equal number (44%) believed it will worsen, and only 12% think it will improve.

Inflation and the ability to find skilled personnel are two of the biggest challenges facing survey participants this year, at 66% and 53%, respectively, followed by state and federal policies that are unfriendly to businesses (40%) and rising interest rates (39%).

Going forward, respondents said the most helpful steps government could take to improve business conditions include implementing measures to ease inflation (73%) and reducing burdensome regulations (66%). Respondents recommended addressing the needs of small business, lessening the tax burdens of individuals, cutting government spending, reducing the pension burden and incentivizing people to work.

“As strategic advisers to their clients and organizations, CPAs are good sounding boards about the business environment. Our members always have a great read on what’s important for growth and sustaining business operations,” Aiysha Johnson, executive director and CEO of the NJCPA, said.

This year’s survey, conducted in June and sponsored by Bernstein Private Wealth Management, was conducted to gauge CPAs’ outlook on the national and New Jersey economies midway through the year.

The moderate stance is more positive than the same economic survey initiated by the NJCPA in 2022, which showed nearly 65% of CPAs believed New Jersey’s economy would worsen during the second half of the year and 28% of CPAs believed economic conditions in the state would stay the same. Only 7% thought it would improve.

Last year, the survey showed similar top concerns, but inflation at that time was a heavier worry at 73%, followed by the availability of skilled personnel at 57%.

“Surveys like this one are a good way to gauge sentiment in all facets of society. It’s not surprising that inflation was more of a concern last year,” Roosevelt Bowman, a senior investment strategist with Bernstein Private Wealth Management, said.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

63 Responses to Dark clouds ahead, or too much pessimism?

  1. dentss dunnigan says:


  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Respondents recommended addressing the needs of small business, lessening the tax burdens of individuals, cutting government spending, reducing the pension burden and incentivizing people to work.

    “I’ll take ‘Things Democrats Oppose’ for $1000, Alex.

  3. grim says:

    Not sure if sarcasm or idiocy – none of that will ever happen in NJ.

  4. leftwing says:

    “I’ll take ‘Things Democrats Oppose’ for $1000, Alex.”

    LOL, can I Daily Double that?

  5. someone says:

    cutting government spending
    how about reducing corporate subsidies, reducing defense spending, reigning in predatory health care pricing

    lessening the tax burdens of individuals
    steeper progressive taxation should help the actually small businesses

    reducing the pension burden
    what percentage of small businesses are still paying pensions? even the ones that do seem to have a defined contribution.

    incentivizing people to work
    better salaries (vs being tied to a job due to needing benefits)? good businesses will retain employees and bad ones won’t

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Here’s your chance to open a pot shop and go to Punk Bagel for munchies!!


  7. Phoenix says:

    Haha. Accountabiity pay.

    and some unions called once again for “accountability pay.”

    Think the Police Should Wear Body Cameras? That Will Cost Taxpayers Extra.
    The public increasingly expects that police interactions will be recorded. And police unions increasingly expect a raise for doing the recording.

    body camera stipends

    “and they’re shutting them off.”

    And more recently the police departments for Nassau County, N.Y., and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey agreed to $3,000 annual body camera bonuses.

    Worcester officers were regularly sexually assaulting or coercing sex from women whom they were investigating for prostitution.

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Cops…those guys crack me up.

  9. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Benefits wouldn’t even be needed if lived in a free market based system. Get insurance out of healthcare.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    $100,000 down and $4,000 per month in PITI will net you a snapshot from 1968… affordable for the 1st time buyer. 🙄


  11. Phoenix says:

    The internet is moving past ‘quiet quitting’ – when someone does only the bare minimum at work, putting in only the effort required to get the job done.

    Gallup’s latest worker poll found nearly six in 10 adults in America are quiet quitting after the pandemic caused people to prioritize their ‘me time’.

    But a new trend that piggybacks on this premise has emerged – the ‘lazy girl’ job. The term went viral thanks to a TikTok video with millions of views.

  12. Phoenix says:

    ‘Girl math,’ the TikTok trend where young women justify their spending, isn’t a lifestyle or a delusion—it’s proof that Gen Z is starting to believe ‘money isn’t real’

    If it’s less than $5 it’s basically free. If you return an item for a refund, you’ve made money. If you paid for a vacation months ago, it’s free by the time you go on it. And if you buy something using cash you found in your pocket, it’s also free.

  13. 3b says:

    Fast: But, you do get a canvas to craft your dream living space.

  14. Chicago says:

    Ten 431.8

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    30 yr. fixed, 7.3%, house prices in NY/NJ/CT metro jump another 5%, house tour guides say we’re bleeding wealth and insulated. Buy now, flip tomorrow.

  16. No One says:

    Is now a decent time to buy 5yr to 10 year TIPS? Able to lock in some positive real yield for the first time in a long time, just in case the Fed sends us back into financial repression again once the feel the need to “stimulate” a weak economy?

  17. 1987 Condo says:

    I guess we can then charge the police say $2,000 a year to allow them to carry a gun and another $1,000 to issue them a bullet proof vest each year.

  18. 3b says:

    Fast : 8 percent mortgages here we come, not that it matters, maybe 18 percent might have an impact.

  19. Phoenix says:

    More inflation. Pump pump pump pump:

    Huge backlog of 200 ships are stuck trying to enter the Panama Canal as they wait WEEKS amid slowed traffic due to drought: Delays set to wipe $200M off profits and cause spike in US grocery and parcel prices
    The large vessels, thought to be carrying millions of dollars worth of goods, are locked in a traffic jam with some waiting for weeks to cross the Panama Canal
    Vessel-tracking data shows hundreds of ships, mainly bulk cargo or gas carriers, waiting near entrances on the Pacific and Atlantic oceans
    The number of daily transits through the canal has been capped at 32 by water authorities in a bid to conserve water.

  20. Phoenix says:

    1987 Condo says:
    August 21, 2023 at 9:52 am
    I guess we can then charge the police say $2,000 a year to allow them to carry a gun and another $1,000 to issue them a bullet proof vest each year.



  21. Phoenix says:

    1,144 banks closed branches across the U.S. in the between January and July

    While California had the most closures in absolute terms, New Jersey suffered the greatest losses per capita with a total of 83.

    I would think a bank could make a nice house with it’s open floor plan and built in escape room for the children.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    8 percent mortgages here we come, not that it matters, maybe 18 percent might have an impact.

    The difference between eating out 3 days per week instead of 4. What a sacrifice for us haughty muppets!

  23. BRT says:

    Casual observation on youth sports. The town rec leagues of our youth have been destroyed. If you want your kids to develop the skills, they are forced to play for a travel team. The rec leagues barely practice enough for them to learn the game and the people that have their kids on travel use the rec leagues for their kids to squash the nontravel kids who never get the appropriate level of practice in.

  24. Phoenix says:

    Criminals really love their BMW’s

    They say it drives like no other car. It’s to die for:

    However, an alert broadcast by police borough Thursday night described the car the robbers showed up in as a BMW M4 and the vehicle they carjacked as a BMW M5.

  25. Phoenix says:


    Bad News Bears.

    Money talks.

  26. No One says:

    I just heard these complaints from a colleague about travel teams. Kids sports/dance/hobbies are an industry in the wealthy areas like NJ. They want your money and all of your kids’ time. So recreational sports get weakened. On the other hand, this is how so many kids get manufactured into being good enough to play in university in sports that selective schools like.

    Alternatively, if you want kids to find some decent recreational leagues, move to a city and state where very few parents can afford to pay for coaching. Perhaps their recreational sports are bigger there due to necessity.

  27. Hold my beer says:


    That 1968 decor house needs to be staged with a few lava lamps. Would easily bump it up to 525k

  28. Libturd says:

    No One,

    There is some truth to that. Many towns have great rec leagues where only the elite child athletes get to play travel. Think Ocean County. Toms River, Bayville, etc. So it is no surprise that the travel teams from these towns occasionally win national championships. It takes a great rec program to feed successful travel teams. Many of the Latino cities like Elizabeth, Harrison, etc. have strong rec soccer programs, too feeding into elite travel teams.

    Where there is money, club sports have replaced recreational activities. Looking at my closest sphere of friends from my college days:

  29. Libturd says:

    Wall Township – Strong rec football, kid went to Nationals.
    Little Falls – LAX and Field Hockey in HS and got scholarships
    Pequannock – Son was a karate nerd, daughter an elite dancer (spends more on dance than we did for our kid to play ice hockey) who can use her skills to shine a brass pole one day. Kid will need loans to pay for college. Going to dancing college. Oy.
    Lincoln Park, then Franklin Lakes – Son is nerd, daughter Field Hockey, nothing came of it.

  30. Libturd says:

    Have a close friend in town whose daughter did Cheer. Actually got a full ride to Penn State. I’m thinking best investment is male cheerleader.

  31. Libturd says:

    Strange one Grim. When I tried posting those three prior posts at once, the filter denied it.

  32. Hughesrep says:

    The travel tournaments and showcases are a pretty big business too.

    I play golf with a guy who is involved in the travel sports tournaments and showcases all over the Northeast. They organize them and get a cut of every dollar that goes through. Team / player entry fees, concessions, programs, ads, etc. They squeeze every dime out of it.

    Those discounted rooms and meals that the people get through being involved in the tourney? They get a cut of that too.

    Good money for a washed up dumb ex jock that couldn’t get through college.

  33. Libturd says:

    Hughes. I know how they work. As soon as the tournament says Stay-To-Play, I cringe. What it means is that you are not allowed to book anything yourself. You really get creamed with the hotel cost. In many cases, I would look up the cost of the hotel and I could get it for half. Airfare, half.

    The absolute greatest moneymaker of similar ilk for ice hockey was the Can-Am tournaments up at Lake Placid. The two rinks from the 1932/1980 Olympics have been turned into tournament central. They run one every weekend. It costs more to play and have your folks watch you play in an arena built 90 years ago than it does to take the family to Disney. And that’s without transportation. I think the four of us paid $3,000 for the weekend. Biggest racket ever. It included food, which was about the same quality as my sleep-away camp food.

  34. Libturd says:


    Just a sense check on the 10 year. Doesn’t it always go way up when the lending rate goes up? Not sure why we should be so scared.


  35. No One says:

    Anyone hear about this English nurse Lucy Letby? She sounds like a real jerk.

    “The prosecutor told the jury that Letby attacked and killed the babies in her care to gain the sympathy of a doctor who she had become infatuated with.”

  36. BRT says:

    We stuck my daughter in Hamilton’s Softball league. Wife was all state (.24 ERA) and my girl seems to have all the skills with ridiculous speed and lefty to boot. She’s already being roped into travel at 9 years old, which I think is too young, but I don’t want her to get the short end of the stick down the road. Had to send a message to the moms already because they keep tacking on costs left and right. Under Armor sweatshirts, socks, special belts. Custom made headbands. It’s almost as if they are more concerned about how they look than how they are going to play.

    My son is in Lawrence. I can’t stand the league. The travel kids think they are hot sh1t when they play in the rec league. The thing is, I’m just not seeing them actually playing good ball. They all make stupid mistakes at age 12 I would expect to not be made once you turn 10. They travel around and get their buts kicked everywhere they go. But they love to stand out in a rec league where the rest of the kids have no idea what’s going on.

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Ten 434; touched 435.4.
    Highest since 11/7/2007

  38. Juice Box says:

    We just joined an elite soccer team. My son did anyway did great in the tryouts. Last year’s team won the NJ Cup and placed 7th in the region and 18th in the country.

    That means high expectations for the next crop of kids mostly from Monmouth County, a few others come all the way down here for practice from further north like Chatham.

    Should be a fun season, they have been practicing all summer up to 5 days a week. My son does not want to be Messi, he wants to be the one that crushes all the future Messi wannabes.

  39. chicagofinance says:

    The Treasury market and mortgage market are related in that mortgages are priced as a spread to the Ten year, but they are separate markets. The structures are different too, because mortgages have an embedded put that can be exercised at will by the borrower. Treasuries are bullets or zeroes. As a result, the spread can wobble all over the place, but generally stays within a range depending on supply/demand etc. Also remember that the Ten can be two different quotes. Most of the time, the pricing bond is something short of ten years. The current pricing bond is
    3.875%, Matures 08/15/33…… but it is constantly wasting. The next time the Treasury issues a Ten year, that will become the new benchmark. They used to issue 4 times a year, 2/15, 5/15, 8/15 & 11/15. I don’t know whether they are sticting with this convention. To correct for this inefficiency, there exists something called a Constant Maturity Treasury, but that is a theorectical construct, and no one will use it to price, because it does not represent the market, just an estimate.

    Libturd says:
    August 21, 2023 at 12:52 pm
    Chi, Just a sense check on the 10 year. Doesn’t it always go way up when the lending rate goes up? Not sure why we should be so scared.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    Lib: stepping back from the finance-crapspeak; the Treasury is the most liquid market and the largest market, meaning that there is the least amount of quirks and manipulation possible. As a result, regardless of what mortgages brokers are quoting you, Treasuries will always be the objective, cleanest, and most strightforward view of fixed income conditions. That is why I quote it. Even with mortgages, there are a half-dozen questions….. wholesale rate? points? jumbo? which state? credit impared? what kind of real estate? ARM? endless………

  41. No One says:

    “Think Interest Rates are High? Think Again!” with professor Richard Sylla
    I can’t believe how healthy my old professor Richard Sylla still sounds. 83 years old, I had an MBA class with him at NYU about 21 years ago and thought he’d be retiring soon. Nope, he’s still going strong, and remembers all sorts of details about the history of interest rates and banking. Probably one of my most enjoyable classes at NYU, he and I had a few mini-debates in class, he’s more in favor of central banks than I, but at least recognized that there is some merit to arguments against.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    Fair question. Are you looking to buy into a managed pool of TIPS or individual ones. At this point, the information is ancient history, but I have a vague recollection of buying TIPS with the inflation premium built into them. Is it possible that the mechanism that accretes the principal can also cause losses when inflation softens below the level reflected in the premium? Let me look that up?

    Ultimately, I am more in the camp of using Treasuries for their traditional use, and other inflation hedges through equities. Give me some time.

    No One says:
    August 21, 2023 at 9:42 am
    Chi, Is now a decent time to buy 5yr to 10 year TIPS? Able to lock in some positive real yield for the first time in a long time, just in case the Fed sends us back into financial repression again once the feel the need to “stimulate” a weak economy?

  43. Juice Box says:

    re: Ten yr

    I don’t wonder why withdrawal from cheap money is painful and could get worse.

    We are feeding the hungry bond investors now as there was $561 billion on debt interest so far this year and that is more than the budget line items for on education and transportation alone.

    Perhaps they could cut the spending? NAH.. COLA on Social Security is 8.7 percent for 2023 alone.

  44. Juice Box says:

    This year so far Feds 6.3 Trillion spent deficit of 1.8 Trillion

    Always a sight to see.. interest so far this year is actually 661 Billion…


  45. chicagofinance says:

    Yeah No One….. it didn’t take me long…… there is defintiely three issues (beyond taxation).

    #1 TIPS principal is only protected to the original par face, if it has accreted due to inflation during the life of the bond, that accretion can reverse, but has a floor at par. You need to buy new bonds in this environment so you receive principal protection, but as we know, you cannot get blood from a stone, so you will pay for it through a lower interest rate.

    #2 CPI is rife with problems. You really want govt bureaucrats creating the information exhause that determines the financial terms of your contract?

    #3 Treasuries are there to be safe and liquid in time of duress. TIPS are not the same market. Due to the quirks, they are more thinly traded.

  46. chicagofinance says:

    exhause = exhaust

  47. Libturd says:


    Appreciate the explanation greatly. I know the relationship to the mortgage market well. I’ve always used the TNX to time my mortgage refinance locks. The last two times with absolutely incredible timing. Those buying today will be able to play the same games.

  48. Fast Eddie says:

    Those buying today will be able to play the same games.

    You’re assuming the muppet masses have 1% of the financial acumen displayed on this blog.

  49. Bystander says:

    “You’re assuming the muppet masses have 1% of the financial acumen displayed on this blog.”

    Over 1 trillion in CC debt at 30% interest, student loans nearing 2T, HELOCS on rise..you can be damn sure that this is not the case.

  50. No One says:

    Chi, the most annoying feature of TIPS is that you have to pay taxes annually on the inflation adjustment (upward) even though you cannot realize it until you sell the bond. So the cash flow generation of TIPS is even lower.
    I think people buying TIPS aren’t too worried about negative CPI adjustments. Possible during short periods of time but seems unlikely longer term. Even with CPI under-reflecting genuine inflation.
    As for stocks, sure, one hopes to get positive real returns longer term, but Japanese investors are sitting on roughly zero nominal returns from stocks over the past 33 years. TIPS could help out in hopefully unlikely but bad scenarios, and might reduce volatility in an asset mix.
    One thing for sure, I wasn’t even going to consider TIPS when they had a negative real yield, ensuring guaranteed real losses. What was the efficient market hypothesis advocates explanation for why people were willing to own bonds with negative YTM, and TIPS with guaranteed negative real YTM?

  51. Bystander says:

    TIPS to the dumb masses

    Suburban Karens – gel or acrylic
    Overfed fatties – sirloin..2 pounds please with fettucine alfredo, garlic bread..skip salad
    Dumpy voters – Your family reunion is not a dating opportunity.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Same as Europe….. mostly likely a contractual mandate, either to be explicitly buying TIPS, or else, the domain of possible securities was limited, and asset diversification forced at least some funds directed to TIPS……. actuarial stuff, right? and matched maturity assets/liabilities…..

    No One says:
    August 21, 2023 at 3:50 pm
    What was the efficient market hypothesis advocates explanation for why people were willing to own bonds with negative YTM, and TIPS with guaranteed negative real YTM?

  53. Very Stable Genius says:


    Former President Donald J. Trump’s bail was set at $200,000 on Monday in a sprawling racketeering case charging Mr. Trump and 18 associates with election interference in Georgia.

  54. Hughesrep says:

    Will any bail bondsman take a check?

    Can Rudy come up with the 10%?

  55. Hughesrep says:

    Eddie get the email for the fund raiser grift yet?

  56. leftwing says:

    Rec hockey leagues started losing talented kids 15 years ago or so in favor of travel.

    Top of my head I can think of a number of kids of that vintage from just one area covered by a large rec league who never touched rec ice other than maybe as a young first year Mite (6 years old)….of that rather large group of travel kids at least three have been on NHL ice, another two drafted, and probably two dozen played D1 if you take four birth years or so combined.

  57. Hold my beer says:


    Your bias has her own single


  58. Fast Eddie says:

    Dumpy voters – Your family reunion is not a dating opportunity.

    2nd cousins are perfectly acceptable provided that they’re really hot.

  59. Bystander says:


    Still one of funniest skits from SNL over last decade.


  60. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Lmao…funny, but true.

    1. You’re fucked
    2. Were all fucked
    3. China is fucked
    4. Japan is fucked
    5. The granddaddy of them all NVDA is royally fucked

  61. Juice Box says:

    Interesting Tucker interview, with an ex-army colonel about the current situation in Ukraine. We are much much worse off situation than the two decades war on terror we fought in Afghanistan and Iraq if we keep this war going.

    Worth the long watch..

    I’d say if this gets traction the media talking heads will be on red alert, seek and destroy.


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