From Yahoo Finance:
Goldman Sachs no longer expects US home prices to decline in 2023
Goldman Sachs housing analysts no longer think home prices will fall this year. Instead, they are forecasting a slight increase.
“We are revising our home price forecasts higher, to 1.8% for full-year 2023 vs. -2.2% prior, and 3.5% in 2024 vs. 2.8% prior,” Vinay Viswanathan, a fixed income strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note for the firm’s housing team. “These forecasts imply home prices will remain roughly unchanged through [the] year-end and then return to trend growth levels in 2024.”
This comes as home prices have resumed an upward trend and mortgage rates remain elevated, creating a bleak homeownership situation for many Americans. Goldman Sachs analysts previously thought that higher mortgage rates would put more downward pressure on home prices.
After declining month over month for seven straight months late last year and into 2023, home prices reversed course in February have stayed that way through May, the latest month for which there is data from Case-Shiller’s national price index.
Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said the data backs the case that the final month of monthly declines was in January.
…
Based on the firm’s housing affordability index hitting record lows, the Goldman Sachs analysts expected that home prices would need to decline nationwide before buyers would bite. But that conclusion has changed.
“We trace most of this demand to non-economic sources: household formation and seasonal turnover,” Viswanathan wrote. “While high frequency data suggests housing turnover may moderate, household formation is well above its long-term trend.”
…
Housing affordability has worsened over the past year due to high mortgage rates, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage climbing north of 7% in the past week, Freddie Mac reported.
While so far many homebuyers have swallowed these increased costs, they “demonstrated behavior that, in our view, reflects unsustainable adaptations to elevated mortgage rates,” Goldman Sachs noted.
For instance, the average debt-to-income ratio on conforming purchase mortgages is over 38%, “a significant aberration from post-Global Financial Crisis averages,” Viswanathan wrote.
“In addition, smaller and lower price homes have seen stronger price growth than larger, higher-quality properties. That said, we expect mortgage rates fall by 100 basis point through the end of next year, somewhat stabilizing affordability,” Viswanathan wrote.
FIRST.. YEA!!
My neighbor’s daughter just sold her condo with multiple offers. one bedroom one bath and they are knocking her door down. She bought it about 15 years before and couldn’t dump it when she got married and bought a new house so she rented it,just made decision to sell it last month. Cleaned it up, new carpet etc.
Now she is going to make a profit, rates need to be in 9-10% range to slow down the people from losing their shirts, because they will.
Is it wrong for someone to send their elderly mom a poop knife as a joke? Asking for a friend.
For instance, the average debt-to-income ratio on conforming purchase mortgages is over 38%…
If this is true, then I’m seriously underpaid. Everybody must be making “UPS driver type” money.
As for Goldman, what a wishy washy response from a firm that is supposed to be the champs when predicting which way the wind will blow. “Oh wait, we change our mind now.” Anyone can be a Monday morning quarterback.
Read Jim’s missive above. Anything with four walls and a roof is gone in a flash. Set any price, the more outlandish the better and watch the dog fights erupt in the open house lines. The Northeast is untouchable. If you really want a house, try the fringes of Paterson, Newark and Passaic and even then it’s a stretch. Maybe you’ll luck out with Prospect Park, Belleville or Haledon.
“We trace most of this demand to non-economic sources: household formation and seasonal turnover,” Viswanathan wrote. “While high frequency data suggests housing turnover may moderate, household formation is well above its long-term trend.”
Translation: “I have no idea what the fuck I’m talking about but since I work for Goldman, I’ll fake it with language that nobody cares about nor understands.”
This will all end well…always does.
Stock market sucking these fools in one last time before the rug gets pulled.
It’s amazing how the stock market just doesn’t give a f’k about the bond market or anything going on in the world. Risk on, mofos!
2 year going over 5%…buy tech and high risk! Party on!!
Insanity.
Awaiting the Fed’s next liquidity cycle.
Credit event is coming. More banks going down. Could it be any more obvious?!
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-21/keycorp-comerica-among-5-banks-cut-by-s-p-in-widening-review
Sold in “as is” condition. HIGHEST AND BEST DUE WEDNESDAY 8-16-2023 4 P.M.!!
I wonder what the hammer price is/was on this one? Garret Heights, Paterson/West Paterson border. Tempting at 299K though it probably was closer to 400K when all said and done. I wonder why it has the “as is” tag, the pics don’t look like it has any major issues. “Highest and Best” is a standard phrase for everything listed. It’s implied, no reason to even state it any longer.
https://www.trulia.com/p/nj/paterson/17-amethyst-ln-paterson-nj-07501–2006583058
The 30-year mortgage has opened up a gap of 3.14 percentage points over the 10-year Treasury. It just keeps going up and up. Higher now than even the widest part of the Global Financial Crisis. Ruthless.
I am about to move a ~ 250K from two third tier banks to add to my treasuries, and there’s a part of me that feels guilty for contributing/driving to/the sucking sound that are the US banks’ balance sheets right now.
Boomer,
I have no idea how the Fed is keeping this together. They plug one hole, and another one immediately opens up.
Investment companies fleeing NY area and California for better locations
https://nypost.com/2023/08/21/new-york-loses-1-trillion-in-wall-street-business-as-firms-flee-report/
Heard the reporter from Bloomberg last night saying investment firms responsible for 1 trillion in assets under management left the NYC region for Florida alone since 2019.
Miami seems the most popular destination in FL for investment firms. Though Cathie picked St. Pete.
No one,
That’s a win for NY and Cali. Let the snakes like citadel go concentrate in miami and get sucked out to sea.
Hold my beer says:
August 22, 2023 at 8:14 am
Is it wrong for someone to send their elderly mom a poop knife as a joke? Asking for a friend.
Does she have any money they expect to inherit?
What you wrote is emotional nonsense. When it becomes unbearable they’ll simply move to their second or third homes being built elsewhere.
It is unfortunate that the no state tax states available to us are meh.
No one doubted him then, Murphy wasn’t kidding when he said he wants nj to be the next California.
Him and platkin are enabling child predators in schools, which makes them child predators. Rutgers is extending the covid shot mandate. Totally baffling save the fact the school is run by political appointees.
I know someone who was doing the covid shots, decided to do some other booster, and now has permanent hearing loss and a hearing aid. What an about face she has taken on the shots. Can’t sue either apparently.
I knew reality would upset Pumpkin. I wonder if he also hopes Cathie’s new office in St Pete will get washed away?
I hope to meet some of her analyst kids at the Tampa Bay CFA society meetings in the future. Only one of them (their Tesla analyst) has passed the tests so far! In all that time Cathie never did.
HMB
Saw the video. It’s good.
My kid showed me another vid recently. Also in a laundromat. I guess it’s some sort of theme there?
Going to see IVE this week at UBS. Don’t know the place but it looks pretty nice. Don’t have to worry about the weather, I guess I will drive there.
You know life has become a sh i t show when you have a 20 something sign a consent for a DNR. I have had 15/16th’s dead old people who would request lifesaving measures.
One of the saddest things I can ever remember in my career.
It’s okay for people to steal from Nordstroms, since America steals from others.
You have set an example, others will follow, including your children.
An oil tanker long suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian crude oil offloaded its cargo near Texas on Sunday, tracking data showed, even as Tehran has threatened to target shipping in the Persian Gulf over it.
U.S. and its allies have been seizing cargoes since 2019 after the country’s nuclear deal allowing the trade collapsed.
Phoenix
We saw Aespa last week. Fun show. Ive looks good too.
PoPo coming after granny: Wonder if she will salute the American flag after she has been violated like a porn star:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/15xmqqn/police_raid_98_year_old_joan_meyers_house_she_was/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
Really all you need to know about mortgage rates and housing. It appears to me, people will buy homes at any interest rate. Both now and back in the 80s.
https://res.cloudinary.com/moneygeek/image/upload/c_scale,q_auto:eco,f_auto,fl_lossy,w_780/v1659961833/fig9_historical_mortgage_rate_vs_median_sale_prices_a078d15393.png
Lib,
You marry her, she demands a home.
It’s the price of marriage, but don’t expect logic.
If she likes it, and it’s built on top of a mine shaft next to an interstate highway, a man will purchase it for her.
So how about the ten-year treasury vs. the S&P? Looks like 6% or below causes bull market mania. But anything above it, really doesn’t impact long-term stock returns.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/3919/sp500-10y-yield
should have bought this book on Amazon, would have done better than the stock market:
https://www.ebay.com/itm/266382041960?hash=item3e059b6368:g:BeAAAOSwDbRk47Yp&amdata=enc%3AAQAIAAAA8JQIu23YPnKfyF0amsRmoBHkzRoEK2fNeeV4G27mlt1YiHxYFRV9aX2Gy285rm4pNHvzbgbE2s%2BaOEPMCq1FNkXSsdb2Bm8ynWc2mmKeTAhWQ03xk%2BgVY12pWJX1Lg%2BVNjGCMn8mk3lExKCS00hipKm0BCwQJ8BGw5BpQ3kPuUnavgPEnRCBN4nDny0IxDb9w5IFSSRK5xxpF%2BZX9kqn%2BvktjirKF%2B4Z8obuHWHGEvZhEsM0iQPGTUUDMUh569Mpj2ZCZm9lvuWWyK%2BtNEem9bgo17NCmpF2NsdvTfU9svQzjNBt4vG3a9rMRUTXZGoAUQ%3D%3D%7Ctkp%3ABk9SR5bT6NvDYg
Lots and lots of noise that village idiots like Pumps and some others are swallowing. I’m fully loaded in a diverse set of investments for for the first time since 2020 and have been scaling in since April. I think we are on the precipice of a long and consistent bull rally that a lot of people, sadly, are going to miss due to the noise. The resiliency of the consumer amid these interest rates increases tells it all. Again, the FED has more bullets in the gun than they’ve had in a long time. Heck the tech bubble occurred in a decade when the lending rate was higher than it is now. Do I expect a rapid market increase? Nope. Just a measly 8 to 12% a year that should spin off about 100K a year per mill invested. It’s not that hard to save two or three million by the time you turn 50. If you can’t live off 150/200K with a paid off mortgage, there is something wrong with you.
Each morning on my walk from the PAuthority to the office, I pass a large group of Biden-approved illegal aliens lined up on 40th street next to the library, waiting for a charity/thrift shop to open across the street. One thing I’ve noticed is that all of them have smart phones — all the way down to the pre-teen kids. So either Joe has taxpayers paying for phones and service for every member of every family over ~12 years of age, or these ‘refugees’ and ‘asylum seekers’ somehow have the wherewithal to ensure everyone in the family, including the kiddies, can watch tiktok while they wait for their taxpayer-funded hotel room to be cleaned, and their taxpayer-funded room service meal to be delivered. What a disaster!
On another noted, good to see Joe finally visiting Maui, given that up to 1000 people may have died as a result of woke Dem incompetence. And nice to see him connecting with the plight of the locals by recounting the 2004 kitchen fire that threatened his corvette. What a moron!
FYI Zoom users…the robots are coming for you.
Privacy and intellectual property rights what is that? They want to train and tune their AI algorithms on our meetings and conversation.
Terms from the latest update on Aug 7th.
“You consent to Zoom’s access, use, collection, creation, modification, distribution, processing, sharing, maintenance, storage of [ the content you share in meetings ] [for any purpose, including training AI models]”.
“… you hereby unconditionally and irrevocably assign to Zoom … and your end users to unconditionally and irrevocably assign to Zoom all right, title, and interest in and to [ the content you share in meetings ], including all Proprietary rights… “
Smart phones can be dirt cheap, even free.
You can tap off public wifi. Unless it’s a very expensive phone it doesn’t mean anything.
You can have a phone without service for a child with games on it.
Just like that dopey argument about large televisions, I can buy a 50 inch tv for less than 300 bucks.
But half dead granny gets a free medication from Medicare that costs 6000 dollars a month and she is as old as Diane Feinstein and Mitch McConnell combined.
Phoenix
That granny dropped dead the next day from the stress
Of that raid.
But FEAR THE CHINESE. THEY ARE AFTER YOU with TIK TOK.
Zoom, nothing to see here, we are your friends. Move along now, nothing to see here.
The average Joe American’s enemy is not 7,137 miles away. It’s right next to you.
Juice Box says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:14 am
FYI Zoom users…the robots are coming for you.
Privacy and intellectual property rights what is that? They want to train and tune their AI algorithms on our meetings and conversation.
Terms from the latest update on Aug 7th.
“You consent to Zoom’s access, use, collection, creation, modification, distribution, processing, sharing, maintenance, storage of [ the content you share in meetings ] [for any purpose, including training AI models]”.
“… you hereby unconditionally and irrevocably assign to Zoom … and your end users to unconditionally and irrevocably assign to Zoom all right, title, and interest in and to [ the content you share in meetings ], including all Proprietary rights… “
Qualified Immunity
Hold my beer says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:20 am
Phoenix
That granny dropped dead the next day from the stress
Of that raid.
Mel needs to redo this scene, but change the wording:
https://youtu.be/rDIF3XhXTT8?t=175
Lib: They will buy the houses, and then when the crap hits the fan, they will cry and the government will bail them out. That was not the case in the 80s.
And nice to see him connecting with the plight of the locals by recounting the 2004 kitchen fire that threatened his corvette.
He did say, “But seriously” afterward because he was just joking. You know, that’s just Joe. So, all is good. This is how he connects to the people. Rest assured, Hawaii will vote blue once again in November of 2024.
Phoenix
Dis you catch the name of that eBay seller? Buttmachine. Lol
I imagine Trump would have thrown paper towels at the Lanai survivors.
All tabloid crap, all the time. I hate the far left and right. They all ought to look in the mirror some time.
No, they will mail the keys back, and the banks will cry so the government bails them out.
3b says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:25 am
Lib: They will buy the houses, and then when the crap hits the fan, they will cry and the government will bail them out. That was not the case in the 80s.
Article above. Valley National Bank downgraded and US bank balance sheets and deposis right now.
Many local governments bank with Valley in NJ. They won’t be bailed out by the FDIC if they don’t have the money to do it. No idea if they have replenished the FDIC fund, it’s not empty but it could happen 100 Billion ain’t all that much these days.
No worries the banking lobby has probably already worked out a cash-for-trash program with the Fed for their long-dated Treasury bonds so the banks don’t have to sell them to raise cash if there is another bank run or two. After all what is a few trillion between friends?
That’s funny, but there is a story behind that book, look up Koury Richens, the author.
Nothing funny about it. Amazon pulled that book, she is a husband killer. Left 3 orphans. It’s a rare book.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12429571/Kouri-Richins-Utah-mom-grief-book-author-killing-husband-NOT-face-death-penalty.html
Hold my beer says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:25 am
Phoenix
Dis you catch the name of that eBay seller? Buttmachine. Lol
Juice,
The banks and the treasury are all dirty like the butcher with his thumb on the scale.
Was kind of weird to seeing Biden wearing that Hawaiian Lei garland around his neck during a period of mourning for the dead. I know you are not supposed to refuse them etc but they planted it on him when he got off the plane and helicopter and he was walking around wearing giving his speech etc. Hey take it off once you leave the tarmac and get in the limo.
At least it wasn’t a tan suit.
Phoenix
I was wondering why that book was priced so high and why I couldn’t find it on Amazon.
Fast
Time to dust off your face diaper
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12432869/Now-Hollywood-brings-mask-mandates-Lionsgate-studios-asks-office-staff-don-face-coverings-test-Covid-hospital-rates-rise-fifth-week.html#
Going to get that rug pulled between now or end of year.
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:00 am
Lots and lots of noise that village idiots like Pumps and some others are swallowing. I’m fully loaded in a diverse set of investments for for the first time since 2020 and have been scaling in since April. I think we are on the precipice of a long and consistent bull rally that a lot of people, sadly, are going to miss due to the noise. The resiliency of the consumer amid these interest rates increases tells it all. Again, the FED has more bullets in the gun than they’ve had in a long time. Heck the tech bubble occurred in a decade when the lending rate was higher than it is now. Do I expect a rapid market increase? Nope. Just a measly 8 to 12% a year that should spin off about 100K a year per mill invested. It’s not that hard to save two or three million by the time you turn 50. If you can’t live off 150/200K with a paid off mortgage, there is something wrong with you.
Credit event is coming.
Lib,
Just hard to agree on market. We are dealing with severe imbalances and money went to rich yet again. The numbers show that people are trying to stay afloat via credit card debt but job market is alot of hubris. I fully believe that house equity makes people feel like winning lottery ticket. They spend what they don’t have bc several hundred K in equity makes them feel good Take that away and make it harder to find solid job and you have bad stuff brewing. A few flints and you will see that consumers not so strong. The wildfire will light fast. Honestly, this economy can’t sustain 5% unemployment. Without wage growth or leverage, people are screwed. It is waning. Look at people on this blog. Several more unemployed than in the past and not finding something quickly. It is months. Most Americans could not sustain multiple months of no (or light) income. The Fed is trying to do this purposely to strangle employment demand and therefore housing demand. It is pretty clear that markets had generous run and now taking it down for awhile to fight bigger demand/inflation issues.
Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran, Man U, et all, sold out Giant Stadium several times over at $500 per tix.
I can’t get F1 $1k tix at Miami, Austin or Vegas. All sold out
Record number of Americans vacationing in Europe
Unemployment very low, Economy is booming!
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 11:00 am
Lots and lots of noise that village idiots like Pumps and some others are swallowing. I’m fully loaded in a diverse set of investments for for the first time since 2020 and have been scaling in since April. I think we are on the precipice of a long and consistent bull rally that a lot of people, sadly, are going to miss due to the noise. The resiliency of the consumer amid these interest rates increases tells it all.
Lib: You seen unusually optimistic.
Investors can’t stop piling up cash, with assets in money market funds ballooning to a record $5.3 trillion.
The surge in cash comes amid a combo of high interest rates and depressed investor sentiment towards the stock market.
But that massive pile of cash could be the fuel needed to drive the next bull market rally.
3b,
I know 6 couples around me who are expanding their homes. There is simple belief in millennial crowd that they will sell home for $1m if put in $300k into it now. In reality, they live in humble homes and now want not-so humble homes. They are house rich. It is pervasive. They were 20 – 22 when bubble burst in 2007. College kids were not watching the world. Lesson has been forgotten already. Seems like recent memory to me.
Ronan Farrow does his best to take a shot at Elon over his support for peace talks and the initially free communication systems he provided to Ukraine that the Russians could not jam.
He makes zero mention of the systems NATO and the USA has for battlefield communications that we will not give to Ukraine no matter what because it would mean war with NATO.
One has to wonder whether general dynamics or the United launch alliance sponsored this hit piece, the rest if the military industrial complex can’t make money when Elon does space cheaper and better than they ever could.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule
Unemployment very low, Economy is booming!
How’s that credit card debt looking? A democrat strategist yesterday was telling dems not to say the economy is great. It angers people. People are struggling from paycheck to paycheck; food is ridiculous, gas is approaching $4 per gallon again and goods and services are in the stratosphere. People don’t want to hear about the chips act, it does nothing for them. Don’t tell people how they should feel.
If housing prices drop 10%, the rush to purchase from all of the pant-up demand will be fierce. People will just put more down.
My only real worry is that people will become satisfied with fixed income like returns for a while. What am I saying? People need their Crypto, NFTs and other valueless crap to get rich tomorrow.
It’s all really right here.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/BQHHupWmSRLk6DAK8
And what the fuck is a credit event? Is that like a blue-light special?
UPS and American Airlines are rebuilding the middle class destroyed by the right wingers.
They forecast an economic boom. President Biden making America great again.
American Airlines pilots approve new contract that boosts compensation by more than 46%
Reuters
August 21, 20236:11 PM EDTUpdated 20 hours ago
And yes, there is definitely some deterioration in the credit market. But people can always consolidate/HELOC/etc.
It’s also an election year coming up and September to Xmas is the best time of the year for the market.
Maybe a few bumps in September when Wall Street returns, but can’t see the nasty under 12,500 anytime soon.
I was forty two when I bought a house for second time in late 2014. Most millennials were probably 30-34. Why was I not competing with them? Where was all the demand? I got 16% less than 2005 price, 3.5% mortgage and got for 5% under ask even with their 40k in updates. Not one person competed with me. I remember old man in 2014 near Ridgefield who literally had tears in eyes bc no one was buying his home. He practically begged me to take it. Probably saddest experience as he could not move and wife died in house. Demand is a lie. Employment and income drive housing not investments. Take out employment and whole thing collapses.
“People need their Crypto, NFTs and other valueless crap to get rich tomorrow.”
Bystander – Did not see you post it, did you land a new gig? I had an interview this week for a new one myself. Some crusty software I managed for a decade was purchased by OpenText recently and there is a new surge in demand to implement it. It Cyber Security stuff no need to bore you with the details other than 100% remote and a good rate. Hopefully, they will look past the aging nerd on the other side of the webcam.
Juice,
Not I – two phone screens on Friday though. I don’t hold my breadth as 90% chance of ghosting. I won’t even consider contract as I need benefits. At this point, I would rather await layoff and get a package. My boss sounded negative on his own plight. He then followed it up with email to his directs asking if we had input all our vacation time..hmmm
re: deterioration in the credit market?
No Way dude…. corporate defaults first…..
S&P etc will mark down a few more coming soon enough as corporate debt stress will hit its highest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis. It will be Europe first, cannot restructure debt then file for bankruptcy.
UPS and American Airlines are rebuilding the middle class destroyed by the right wingers.
So, am I loading trucks or becoming a baggage handler?
Which one do you recommend?
Bystander – Soccer mom by me works at your shop too. She is extremely worried as she is the main breadwinner too.
I hear you on the ghosting, but in my opinion, it is mainly NY-area companies. Try branching further out.
Eddie – CDL at UPS will get you 170,000 a year with benefits etc but that means you have to drive 2,000 miles a week! Well that is until the Robot Trucks come along, and Robot baggage handlers too..
Stay of the roads in Texas.
“Tyson Foods to use self-driving trucks from Dallas to San Antonio”
“Kodiak Robotics would like to remove the human safety operator in about a year.”
https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/robot-trucks-san-antonio-tyson-17910724.php
Delta’s pilots set a baseline for negotiations in March, when they voted to approve a contract that would raise wages 34 percent by 2026. United’s pilots last month reached a tentative agreement that would increase pay 40 percent in the coming years.
American,
Delta,
United
and Southwest Airlines
each reported record quarterly revenues in the three months that ended in June, reflecting the strong and continuing recovery from the depths of the pandemic, boosted most recently by international travel.
Pilots?
We have a Robot for those jobs too, the commercial version of the Robot “PIBOT” which can sit in the pilot seat should be flying planes in about 3 years.
It runs on ChatGPT too gotta jam in the latest algos.
https://newatlas.com/robotics/pibot-worlds-first-humanoid-robot-pilot/
…each reported record quarterly revenues…
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_credit_card_debt
Tick… tick… tick… tick…
Juice,
Not surprised. I know at least 3 people who are hanging on, 20 plus years, waiting on a package. The hammer is coming. Hiring freeze all year and lost tons of people. We can’t continue like this. I have one dev left on app that had 3 previously.
Good luck on interview. I have a gray beard wash recommendation…hah.
Fab? How goes it?
VSG,
In other news, United has increased their flight costs 75%.
I think Rutgers just did this. Union gets big raise then consumer pays. No one tightens belt
Include MTA, bridges, toll roads which all increase yearly now as opposed to once every five years or so. As long as there’s room on the credit card, life is beautiful!
Bystander : That is completely reckless and foolish, I don’t mean to sound like an old fogie, but these younger people are out of control. I don’t understand their thinking.
Lib: You are assuming they can come up with the extra money, where is that coming from?
Who needs extra money. Just do what every local government in America has been doing for decades. Reduce your debt by extending it. Why pay off that last ten million you owe when you can pay 1 million every year for the next fifteen. Just think of what you can buy with that extra nine million this year. In Montclair, it will be new municipal offices.
Women can’t organize against anything but men so nursing pay will always suck.
They have had the best leverage in history and the only prize they got is free cold pizza and a larger paycheck if they whore themselves out by traveling for minimum stability.
My new neighbor who closed on the house next door last Friday is really going to town. Already has new wood laminate flooring installed throughout many of the rooms, workers Painter arrives this week to start, was quoted 2 weeks to paint, he asked them to finish in 10 days so he can get the movers here. He was busy power-washing all weekend too, a bit of a noise complaint from me as I had people over but he did stop at 6 PM so I introduced myself and offered a beer.
Fast, got another one for you. Purchased in 2012 for $450, just listed for $700
Bystander
the wealthy can afford the fare.
just like they could in 1940
No one,
There is a reason cathie wood chose tb over miami. She’s a smart woman. Miami is right there with vegas when it comes to dirty business world.
Lib,
My track record with calling these things has been phenomenal on this blog. I pulled 401k almost at the right time. Rode the bull entire last decade while everyone was crying the sky is falling. Called the end of the bear market rally when it was on record tear based on BOJ trouble. Maybe I wrong this time, you never know, but I am telling you the signs of a rug pull are there. Only a matter of time, imho. I still believe in roaring 20s 2.0, but they need to take a bat to the head of assets in order to grow this economy again. If they don’t have the balls to do it, it will lead to stagflation. Hope they choose growth over stagflation.
Just think of it like this. We are at the point where the Fed plugs a hole which is immediately replaced by another hole. Think about that. That’s why bonds are trading like penny stocks. Chit is pretty bad out there and no one knows what happens next. There is no certainty, and with no certainty, you don’t have stability. That’s where we are at.
And I don’t know how I know all this stuff. It just comes natural to me. My mind is just good at it. I am able to take all these ideas and opinions and put it together. I don’t always have a position. I said earlier this year where I said I have zero clue what’s happening with this market in the short term. I couldn’t make sense of it, and was just going with the flow. Now, it’s becoming clear to me. It’s in big trouble. Rug pull is highly likely, but you know we can’t say it definitively…you don’t know if the Fed has something up their sleeve that we can’t see. I just don’t see how they can save it. Let’s see what happens.
In 2008, it was the easy move. Pump the monetary system to subsidize weak demand or outright deflation. Right now, they can’t do that. Not the same conditions. Complicated puzzle now. Crash seems likely.
Like how do you make up for deflationary bust in China? How?! Second largest economy, and the major tool in 2008 that created demand for the world. Massive growth that helped the rest of the world. Where do you get that right now? AI economy needs cheep loans to create the kind of growth to make up for China bust…not happening.
So you get anomalies in the stock market now because of this..all piling into nividia…it’s the only chance for growth they see and now created a bubble. A lot of problems right now that we can’t even see.
1. U.S. homes are shrinking.
Faced with high mortgage rates, cost-constrained Americans (🔐 read for free) are letting loft spaces and dining rooms go the way of coal chutes and milk boxes so they can afford new homes. Since 2018, the average unit size for new housing starts has decreased 10% nationally to 2,420 square feet, according to listing platform Livabl by Zonda. Most builders and architects are now into more efficient living spaces, increasing the size of multiuse areas like kitchens and great rooms and promoting shared spaces such as jack-and-jill bathrooms.
U.S. Home Sales Fell in July, Extending Prolonged Slump (Read)
2. Fed officials face a challenge: deciding how aggressive they should be to reach their 2% inflation target.
Ending the fight against inflation will likely be the hot topic at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyo., annual retreat, which starts Thursday. The central bank’s most aggressive interest-rate increases in four decades helped lower inflation from 9.1% to 3.2%. If officials continue to raise rates and reduce them only as the economy weakens, inflation could fall to 2% by the end of next year, with the risk of a sharper downturn and no soft landing. The slower approach? The central bank keeps rates where they are and considers cuts later in 2024; that could mean inflation takes around three years to drop to 2%.
Dick’s Sporting Goods and Macy’s Flash Warning Signs on U.S. Consumer Spending (Read)
U.S. Stocks Slip on Worries About Consumer Strength (Read)
3. Starting a new job? Your paycheck is likely smaller than it would have been just months ago.
Businesses are reducing starting salaries for recruits after years of increases when companies competed for workers to fill pandemic-induced labor shortages. The job market has cooled and companies have grown more cautious in their hiring. Some of the steepest drops have been in technology, transportation and other sectors that experienced frenzied hiring sprees in 2021 and early 2022.
4. Traders are ramping up bets on Nvidia ahead of the chipmaker’s earnings report today.
They have dished out more than $100 billion on options this year, according to Cboe Global Markets data through mid-August. About 60% is tied to call options. No stock besides Tesla has garnered that level of investor interest. Shares of Nvidia, which makes the graphics chips used to power generative AI technology, have more than tripled this year, making them by far the best performers in the S&P 500. In June, the company became the seventh in the U.S. to reach $1 trillion market capitalization.
Microsoft Submits Revised Activision Blizzard Deal to U.K. Regulator (Read)
New U.S. Buyback Tax Hits Companies With $3.5 Billion Burden (Read)
Look at no. 3. That’s strong evidence of demand being cut back in the economy.
“And I don’t know how I know all this stuff. It just comes natural to me”
You’re a very stable genius…
The S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse given extreme valuations and “unfavourable market internals,” per John Hussman quoted in BI.
I have been on point, bystander. You don’t call a real estate market 10 years out without being pretty good. Esp when people are yelling and want to attack you for saying it. I never backed down. I saw what I saw.
Lib – You mentioned NFTs?
Good luck for anyone getting money back on that investment. That Fat Boy “Vegan” Bankman-Fried inflated the values with stolen money.
“The Sotheby’s auction house has been named as a defendant in a lawsuit filed by investors who regret buying Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs that sold for highly inflated prices during the NFT craze in 2021. A Sotheby’s auction duped investors by giving the Bored Ape NFTs “an air of legitimacy… to generate investors’ interest and hype around the Bored Ape brand,” the class-action lawsuit claims.
The boost to Bored Ape NFT prices provided by the auction “was rooted in deception,” said the lawsuit filed in US District Court for the Central District of California. It wasn’t revealed at the time of the auction that the buyer was the now-disgraced FTX, the lawsuit said.”
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/buyers-of-bored-ape-nfts-sue-after-digital-apes-turn-out-to-be-bad-investment/
I thought you said it was going to 7,000?
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 2:01 pm
Maybe a few bumps in September when Wall Street returns, but can’t see the nasty under 12,500 anytime soon.
Pufff….look what I am now seeing on Twitter today. All these f’ers were full on bulls going into today. Starting to see the light. That means get out in front of them.
I have been shorting my beloved stock. Let that sink in. You know how much I love DNA long-term.
$QQQ Forming the right side of a head & shoulder topping pattern. 9 distribution days over last few weeks as market internals continue to weaken. Volume on last leg of rally decreased which showed divergence.
I was all bulled 🐂 up a few weeks ago but back to CASH.
This is something everyone should be paying attention too.
Me buy overpriced home bc of wood radiator covers. Me buy stock. Me watch Fed print 25T in 15 year. Home worth more now. Stocks worth more now. Me copy paste twitter. Me genius.
Bystander,
Me cry that houses overpirced all last decade. How that work out?
4 patients called today and cancelled their September appointments because they were let go from their jobs.
Maybe a lot more job losses are happening or maybe this is a coincidence.
https://x.com/chutneylife/status/1694095520585715918?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg
Seriously, the Chutney dentist? WTF? Where do you find this stuff?
I don’t care, By. What matters is the message. You don’t see chit like this in a bullish cycle.
First, I am not going to answer someone who says he’s holding Ginko for life and at the first sign the stock drops from a double, he claims he’s shorting it. You may be related to Grim, but you lack his honesty. But we new that since you claimed you were a financial advisor.
Second, Chi says,
“I thought you said it was going to 7,000?”
Good mammory man. I did say that, but I also never expected the FED to do the right thing when it came to raising interest rates. Not after nearly a decade of ZIRP. I also said that time plays a key role in the reversal and it’s been a heck of a long time since that original call was made back in late 2019 was it? I also more recently said the bottom would fall out by the end of the Summer or early Fall at the latest. But it didn’t because the consumer is much more resilient than I ever expected. I honestly think it’s simply not going to happen. UNLESS, Powell (the man of the year), significantly overshoots and keeps raising rates much higher than it is today. I think the major downside protection comes from him (or whomever replaces him) cutting the rates the moment the market starts showing signs of REAL pain.
That’s what I’m going with.
BTW, I love using the Nasdaq chart, when everyone else uses the S&P since it’s movements are exaggerated and it’s really where all the risky investments are.
Lib: I have to say I am surprised that you don’t find consumer debt to be an issue. I would not define resilient as being based on borrowing/ debt.
Lib – He engages in is what psychiatrists call external self-talk on this blog and all of it is self-appreciation.
We have our very own Stewart Smalley here on this blog.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMRX-Wj2WOk
3B – consumer debt is a banking write-down which is a No No according to the Fed especially if it’s systemic TBTF.
No worries Fed will vacuum it all up, just like they did with all the residential mortgages that were bundled and sliced into neat little tranches and sold off to anyone looking for yield like AIG.
Consumer debt fluctuates. All of this productivity is not a result of credit card debt. It’s just a hot economy. I can’t wait to see the profits at the credit card agencies and the banks that profit from them.
What has me completely miffed is how many idiots have large amounts of money in bank accounts still paying .1 or .2 percent interest.
3B – Credit Card ABS seems ok for now, it’s not 2008 people are making their payments. They expect a 2% rise in the next year still better than pre-pandemic.
Some charts to peruse..
https://www.fitchratings.com/structured-finance/abs/credit-card-indices#abs-credit-card-indices
Why would I lie? I have nothing to hide. I have learned the best investors are the ones that can suck it up and change position on a dime.
Gingko has a future if they survive. They will be a brand name. Short-term, everything is fucked.
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 8:27 pm
First, I am not going to answer someone who says he’s holding Ginko for life and at the first sign the stock drops from a double, he claims he’s shorting it. You may be related to Grim, but you lack his honesty. But we new that since you claimed you were a financial advisor.
3b,
Understand that lib is corrupted by personal bias now. He might be right, but my money is on his money pile, aligned with easy money, have blinded him.
You guys can talk all the chit you want about me, I am just a straight shooter and call chit how i see it.
I lied once on this blog about my occupation because I knew no one would take me seriously when they found out I was a teacher. Was I right, or was I f’ing right?!!!
Made the sickest call ever on real estate. 10 years out, which is simply amazing. Do i get respect. No. Comes with being a teacher. I get it.
I was in 2018/19 screaming as I watched the “it” towns go up in value that Wayne and Fairfield were the greatest real estate values in north jersey. How f’ing more amazing do you want? i was f’ing unbelievably on point. Truly unbelievable. Yet, I add no value to this blog. Suck it. I know my worth. I don’t need people to validate it anymore.
Lib Credit card debt is at a trillion that is a record, I would not call it fluctuation. And at 20 percent or more rates.
I lied once on this blog about my occupation because I knew no one would take me seriously when they found out I was a teacher.
Is that why no one takes me seriously?
Juice: Ok for now, but for how long? 2 percent seems very low. Sub prime car loans starting to crack. So we shall see.
Lib: I don’t know, some might say you have gone rogue with all this cheery optimism that all is well.
“I lied once on this blog about my occupation”
..oh, and that time you used a different handle, claiming you were not Blumpy. How long did that charade last? Months..
Funny thing is NVIDIA is not the only game in town, and it’s a very expensive game if you want to rent time to run AI workloads or build your own.
AMD is what the commercial clouds run these days for standard computing. There is no reason to believe that will change for existing gravy computing needs. How they got there is a great story of performance for a lower price.
The new AMD MI250 and MI300 AI chips are ramping up production, it might end up being a better alternative to what NVIDIA has in the long run, and will definitely put pressure on NVIDIA margins to close future deals, they have 70% of the market now but that can change, the money always flows to the cheaper hardware alternatives in the long run.
By, many of my well to do cousins in Bergen County did the same. They all panic bought in 2008 and were stuck. They sunk another 200k into their homes to expand them.
3B – The next crisis is always around the corner, last one Covid kept defaults and write downs low because of all the money Congress shot at regular people with a firehose. Banks got FED treatment as we know we were back at ZIRP again for a while.
Next crisis will come and pass and as usual the debt hangover will be even larger and longer especially for anyone buying homes at these inflated prices with these interest rates.
BRT – yup mine too 2007 my brother bought his in Bergen County and sunk in a fortune later to remodel the starter home and many of his neighbors did too, they will never move unless one gets into the C-Suite or hits it big in a will and testament.
Because…you want the truth? You threw your profession and union under the bus, while I defended the hard work we do. You think these people do as much work as you? Wake up. They love WFH, while any teacher worth their pay, knew it was garbage. Kids have zero attention span. You think that changes much as they become a full time worker…wfh. Lmfao.
BRT says:
August 22, 2023 at 9:19 pm
I lied once on this blog about my occupation because I knew no one would take me seriously when they found out I was a teacher.
Is that why no one takes me seriously?
I dare you to pay the avg worker (homer simpson) to work from home for your business. i f’ing dare all of you defending WFH. I’ll short the chit out of your companies.
Wow 12 years since Fukushima and they will finally start dumping the radioactive water into the oceans, water was used to cool the slag pile to keep it from melting all the way through the containment.
Funny they have made absolutely no progress dismantling the three reactors that blew up. The challenge of removing melted fuel from the reactors is so daunting that some experts now say that setting a completion date even as soon as 30 years from now is not possible, any no idea about where to store the nuclear waste about 880 tons of highly radioactive melted nuclear fuel.
When is the next tsunami wave due?
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/102193676
hey love WFH, while any teacher worth their pay, knew it was garbage. Kids have zero attention span. You think that changes much as they become a full time worker
You do remember I went to work in Sept 2020 teaching in person while you were busy arguing in 2021 why you didn’t want the kids back in school? Don’t you?
In more serious news, The family ate at M & T in Fairfield/Parsippany last night at the advice of a Chinese family we know. They said it was the closest thing you will find to real Chinese outside of China. I used to joke that you could tell the authenticity of a restaurant by the number of spelling errors on their menu. This place had so many errors, it was a puzzle sometimes what each dish was. Lots of frogs, tongues, seafood I never heard of and penis fish all over the place. We went the safe route and had smoked lamb ribs, Szechuan Eggplant, Tofu and broccoli, Chicken and broccoli (for the D) and sweet and sour pork. Everything was absolutely wonderful. Besides the pork, all of the sauces had amazing layers of flavors, none of which were sweet. By far, the best Chinese food I have ever had. This was levels above Chengdu 23 which I always felt was best in NJ. The restaurant is very ordinary. Lots of large round tables, all with lazy Susans.
I could very well be wrong. And willing to admit it if I am. Keep in mind, if you listen to the pundits on Wall Street, you’d be broke.
And Pumps is right. I am biased. I can afford to be wrong as I am in such a strong position from my market timing in getting out. But one thing I do really well, that the so-called experts never do, is make moves ahead of time. They are constantly caught looking in the rear-view mirror. Of course, they need to wait for confirmation. When you nail your exit, it allows you a lot of leeway on the reentry. And if I am wrong, I can still bail with minimal damage. But again, I don’t see it happening. Much like when you all suspected back in March/April when I said this rally would have legs, most here claimed I was suffering from FOMO. We’ll see, my stock picks lately have mostly sucked.
And debt to GDP?
We are in decent shape, China is estimated to be up to 300%. Lots of developed nations in way worse shape than us.
This is a major factor in my decision process. China is too big to ignore. They are basically in a generational depression. Soft landing…just can’t see it .
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 10:38 pm
And debt to GDP?
We are in decent shape, China is estimated to be up to 300%. Lots of developed nations in way worse shape than us.
And no, I am not saying i know it all and am correct. Please convince me otherwise. i just want to make money. Gut says, it’s fucked.
And becauseI disagree with your bullish position, doesn’t mean I don’t respect you. No one is correct a 100% of the time. We are all mortals. Allowed to make mistakes and learn from them. Pancake in a bottle was blessing for me long-term.
Money well spent, because it taught me more about market psychology and manipulation than any college course ever could. Got my ass kicked, learned, and came back stronger.
You were a deciding indicator for me to pull the 401k. Always remember that. That’s the respect I have for you. Pulled almost half a million from 401k.
Libturd,
What was the restaurant? Sounds good except for the “penis fish”.
It’s called M & T. The waitress was very sweet and spoke just enough English for us to make it work.
No most. Only me.
Libturd says:
August 22, 2023 at 10:26 pm
Much like when you all suspected back in March/April when I said this rally would have legs, most here claimed I was suffering from FOMO.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50779461.amp
We need to stop Stu from tickling his prostate.
If reincarnation exists, I want to be reborn as a penis fish.
“You’re a very stable genius…”
It’s the meds. This stuff happens same time every night. He needs an extended release version.
“I think the major downside protection comes from him (or whomever replaces him) cutting the rates the moment the market starts showing signs of REAL pain.”
Sad to say my friend the Fed put has gone the way of liar loans.