Shrinkflation hits housing

From the Week:

The answer to rising home prices: smaller homes

With the prices of homes remaining stubbornly unaffordable, the number of available home listings shrinking, and record high mortgage rates, potential homebuyers are increasingly looking to newly constructed homes to fill the gap. Builders are expected to meet the rising demand for new homes while also dealing with soaring construction costs. The solution? New homes are being built smaller and much closer together than before. 

The housing market seems locked in a cycle that is driving the affordability of homeownership down. The average mortgage rates are at the highest they’ve been in over a decade, driven by the Federal Reserve‘s efforts to avoid a recession, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this summer. The rates keep potential buyers out of the market while simultaneously “discouraging homeowners from selling, limiting the supply of homes for sale,” the outlet added. At the same time, the high demand and low supply are keeping house prices high. 

With the market shrinking, home builders are trying to find ways to make housing affordable in order to entice more customers to buy new homes, and shrinking the size of newly built single-family homes has become a popular way to do that. Reducing the size of new homes helps “cost-constrained buyers” and can “boost the bottom line for builders who are contending with spiraling labor and construction costs,” per a more recent report from the Journal. Data from Livabl by Zonda, a listing platform for new construction homes, showed the average unit size for newly constructed homes decreased by 10 percent nationally, the Journal summarized.

During the pandemic, the number of detached single-family homes increased, but a “succession of economic shocks” has “caused builders to change course,” Zillowreported. Construction starts for typical single-family homes declined 10.1 percent between 2021 and 2022, but starts for houses with less than three bedrooms increased 9.5 percent in that time. Zillow found that “the homes that builders opted to begin work on became smaller, more likely to be attached and more likely to be built offsite.” Attached properties such as condos or townhouses also saw a 2.9 percent increase, compared to detached homes, which fell by 12 percent over the same period. 

The trend toward smaller homes is becoming “pretty consistent nationally,” Mikaela Arroyo, director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, told Market Watch. “We’re seeing a lot of deletion of separate, defined spaces,” Arroyo said. Builders are eschewing the kitchen, dining, and living room setup for one kitchen and one “great room.” The kitchens are larger than they used to be “because we’re taking away the dining room,” she added.  And while smaller homes are “not solving the affordability crisis,” they are “creating opportunities for people to be able to afford an entry-level home in an area,” Arroyo said.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

144 Responses to Shrinkflation hits housing

  1. Phoenix says:

    First to show a taste of America. Happy Sunday!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiT80rViJSg

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    With 6 laps to go at Daytona last night, Ryan Preece in the #41 takes a wild ride. He walked away and stayed overnight in the hospital for observation. This is a 3,500 lb. vehicle:

    https://twitter.com/NASCARonNBC/status/1695623954939985973

  3. Juice Box says:

    $183,000 over ask..in Bloomfield!

    “A newer construction home in Bloomfield recently ignited a bidding war that brought its sale price up 27% over the asking price.”

    “The home was listed in April 2015 for $499,000 and sold for $495,000 in June 2015. It was also listed in October 2019 for $549,000 and sold in January 2020 for $579,000.”

    “The home got 11 offers and went into a bidding war between two prospective buyers,”

    “The four bedroom, four bathroom Colonial was listed June 16 for $689,000 and closed August 16 for $875,050.”

    https://www.nj.com/realestate-news/2023/08/after-bitter-bidding-war-nj-home-sold-for-186k-above-asking-price.html

  4. Juice Box says:

    Robert F Kennedy is pitching 3% mortgages on the campaign trail.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    $183,000 over ask..in Bloomfield!

    Let it ride! Party on! This train ain’t stopping!

  6. 3b says:

    Juice: From Livingston to Bloomfield, that’s like going from Allendale to Hackensack. I hope these people are happy. It’s absolute madness.

  7. Hold my beer says:

    Fast

    I give that an 9.1 Didn’t stick the landing

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    Beer,

    Ha. Preece walked from it. From 190 MPH to chaos in a second. Kudos to NASCAR for finding better and better ways to protect drivers.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    that’s like going from Allendale to Hackensack…

    No area is exempt. They’re fighting on the fringes of Paterson now and even in sections like Hillcrest. This train ain’t slowing down.

  10. Hold my beer says:

    Weight update

    Yesterday was 195. Dropped a major deuce in the afternoon. Today am 192. My wife is right. I’m full of cr@p.

  11. Phoenix says:

    Nikki Haley Life Expectancy Math:

    In five years the young people will live to 120. Raise Social Security retirement age to 100.

    Reality:

    Nearly double the number of young adults under 55 are being diagnosed with colorectal cancer than a decade ago, and more are dying from the disease each year, as reported recently by the American Cancer Society.

  12. Phoenix says:

    I guess they did keep RBG alive for a long time.

    Probably IV infusions of formalin.

  13. Phoenix says:

    Nikki Haley should get together with Mike Rowe and see how many septic tanks an 80 year old geezer can clean in one day.

    Dirty jobs forever!!

  14. Juice Box says:

    More Housing coming to Monmouth County.

    Old Orchard Country Club Golf Course in Eatontown was rezoned for senior housing. 175 age-restricted townhomes.

    Kushner gets a tax break on the Monmouth Mall redevelopment project. 30-year tax payment-in-lieu-of-taxes (PILOT). He will add 1,000 apartments to the Mall property and knock down the old closed JC Penny etc. Mall is 1/2 occupied now. The new development will make it a walkable community etc.

    https://www.app.com/story/news/local/redevelopment/2023/08/25/eatontown-monmouth-mall-tax-break-kushner-old-orchard-golf-homes/70658707007/

  15. Chicago says:

    Juice: once Ft Monmouth/Netflix gets chugging and Kushner’s project gets off the ground, I eventually think 36 from the GSP to the ocean really starts to ramp up.

    There are all the upscale auto dealerships by the DMV, but then it is pure schlock until Long Branch, where it becomes raw sewage until Ocean Blvd. The racetrack just seems begging for some gaudy mega project.

  16. BRT says:

    The life expectancy dipped in the US the past few years. Moreover, I’m sure the drastic changes to our food supply that have gone on the past 20 years will have more negative effects on that (bad oils, sugars, hormone infused livestock) The people dying at age 75 now had 50 years of eating normal prior to the new American diet. Seeing how heavy people are in their 20s now, I would never bet money on an increase in nationwide life expectancy given our current situation. Could turn out different from other factors but I doubt it.

    Just about every grain, flour, or cooking oil, I buy is imported from another country (Italy, Greece, Morocco, Lebanon, Japan, Korea). I lose 20 pounds every year in the summer just by eating right every single day. I slowly gain it back every year as I have to grab meals on the fast.

  17. Phoenix says:

    65 is way too low. Die old man, how dare you expect to have 8 whole years of your effin life not working. Go do your dirty job and die already.

    A dramatic fall in life expectancy
    With rare exceptions, life expectancy has been on the rise in the US: it was 47 years in 1900, 68 years in 1950, and by 2019 it had risen to nearly 79 years. But it fell to 77 in 2020 and dropped further, to just over 76, in 2021. That’s the largest decrease over a two-year span since the 1920s.

    For women and men, life expectancy of 79.1 years and 73.2 years reflects a long-apparent, significant gap.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Make sure you return your library books on time, they mean business now:

    https://youtu.be/mgBmYoVPaS0?t=54

  19. SundayAfternoon JustInCase says:

    I wanted to post this for a while, gut forgot the link.

    Sometimes the conversations here gets dark, therefore it is good for you all to learn like the pros.

    https://players.brightcove.net/2851863979001/default_default/index.html?videoId=5830637257001

  20. BRT says:

    I also think the big shift in Pharma’s business model that went from medicine for sick people to medicine for healthy people is going to negatively affect us as well.

  21. ExEx says:

    Preach Dreamtheater

  22. Hold my beer says:

    BRT

    Sick, overweight tired serfs living paycheck to paycheck who need meds to stay alive are easier to control and manipulate than a healthy fit population.

  23. Chicago says:

    Lib: just reviewing some data and to your questions regarding mortgage rates.

    Yes, spreads on mortgage backed have definitely blown out into the 300 bps range. The spread above the Ten is usually 175-200. So 725-area off a 425 Ten suggests how weak demand is even considering the chunky yield.

    Extrapolating using blunt force supply/demand, as I really know nothing about MBS fixed income, it suggests that implied risk right now is higher, or else there is The thought that rates need to go even higher to stoke demand. I will say that there so little refi going on, so MBS holders are not getting their bond principal called away from them. Could be one explanation among many about limited demand?

  24. 3b says:

    Zillow says housing prices will increase by 6.5 percent by July, 2024.

  25. Hughesrep says:

    Juice / Chi

    Old Orchard is a Tillinghast course. Famous old times designer, too bad it was never kept up, classic layout. It’s been a goat track for years, always called it “Old torture”. Only memorable round there was a State Police outing that had strippers on all the par threes. Crazy day.

    The track is pretty much done. Have a golf buddy who has thoroughbreds and races them at Monmouth sometimes. The racing association cut the number of active days at the track way back, and basically told the horse guys they cant make it anymore. It’s over without them saying it’s over. Even slots and gambling wont bring them out of the black hole.

    Traffic through that stretch of 36 is bad enough, I cant imagine a few thousand more housing units.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Most aren’t going to agree.

    The human body is a f’ing machine. What really matters, is moderation. Don’t over consume calories to the point you are getting overweight. Nothing else matters. Come on, these drug addicts and alcoholics live how long off that chit diet? Get sleep, exercise, and don’t over-consume.

    You think climate change is a hoax, while eating up extremism when it comes to your food. You have evidence of an individual earing a big mac every single day and living how long? Come on…

    BRT says:
    August 27, 2023 at 3:10 pm
    The life expectancy dipped in the US the past few years. Moreover, I’m sure the drastic changes to our food supply that have gone on the past 20 years will have more negative effects on that (bad oils, sugars, hormone infused livestock) The people dying at age 75 now had 50 years of eating normal prior to the new American diet. Seeing how heavy people are in their 20s now, I would never bet money on an increase in nationwide life expectancy given our current situation. Could turn out different from other factors but I doubt it.

    Just about every grain, flour, or cooking oil, I buy is imported from another country (Italy, Greece, Morocco, Lebanon, Japan, Korea). I lose 20 pounds every year in the summer just by eating right every single day. I slowly gain it back every year as I have to grab meals on the fast.

  27. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I love monmouth, but understand it is passaic county 40 years ago. It’s becoming another NYC borough .

  28. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, China cuts stock trading tax by 50%. Writing on the wall. Credit event coming. Liquidity drying up.

  29. BRT says:

    You think climate change is a hoax, while eating up extremism when it comes to your food. You have evidence of an individual earing a big mac every single day and living how long? Come on…

    I’m not going to engage. You don’t have the scientific knowledge to argue with me on any topic in any field.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I am simply saying that being overweight matters more than what you eat. Love the people that eat all wholefoods, but are still overweight. Meanwhile, I eat pizza and burgers and I am toned because I don’t overeat and work out hard.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I have a metabolic age between 37 and 38. How can it be? I have a heart rate that I have brought down from 120/90 to 104/70 still eating a pie of thin curst pizza to the face. Eating fast food once or twice a week. Eat ice cream and brownies before I got to bed? How can it be.

    Maybe intermittent fasting works. Maybe getting 10k steps and working out, matters more than what you eat. Again, in moderation. If i eat hard and good today, I take it easy tomorrow to “revert to the mean.”

    Prove me wrong. I see my own data. Eating only grilled ckn and salmon is overdrive.

  32. The Great Pumpkin says:

    At the end of the day, know your body. Is it saying I need to sleep? Is it saying too much fatty foods? Listen to it.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I am 43 and almost have a six pack. Just choose not to go to that extreme. Make no doubt about it, I am pretty ripped. Not muscle head extreme, but ripped for my age and height.

  34. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If I eat too much sugar, or food, my body lets me know. Feel it. The rest is noise.

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Otherwise, how do alcholics/coke heads live so long on a diet of pure coke and alcohol. How?!!

    Eating all the right foods might add 2 years to your life. Eating in moderation(don’t get fat) and exercising will add years to your life.

  36. Hold my beer says:

    How is someone ripped for their height?

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Do your legs and arms show muscle definition? Does your stomach have the outline of a six pack minus the individual lines going across which requires someone like myself to go to an extreme diet? Are your shoulders and neck defined? That’s ripped.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you have rolls covering up whatever muscles you have…not ripped. I don’t care how much you bench. Overweight.

  39. BRT says:

    How is someone ripped for their height?

    Rofl

  40. BRT says:

    Eating all the right foods might add two years to your life, that’s why I’m on a Statin at age 40.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Brt,

    Laugh all you want. It’s honestly how I feel based off my data. I didn’t change my diet, yet brought my heart rate to “perfect” levels through fasting strategies while mixing in one meal a day that is fruit and salad for nutritional whole foods. My other meals don’t matter, because I don’t over consume and poison myself.

    And nothing against you, personally. I just hate these con-artists in the health industry selling bs. They are right, but they are overselling the bs.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Make it sound like if i eat brown rice with salmon every single day, I have found the fountain of youth. Live forever! Sure.

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    And “non gmo” movement…get real. For your ancestors sake, if you are still making babies, get them used to GMO. It’s the f’ing future.

  44. OC1 says:

    “I have a heart rate that I have brought down from 120/90 to 104/70”

    I think you mean blood pressure.

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    For once, zero hedge gets it right.

    The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Scarcity is an illusion created by excess liquidity”

  47. Phoenix says:

    Hope this homeowner sleeps well tonight. Oopsy, wrong address. BANG!

    Ain’t showing the “property” owner yet. Nothing, nothing gives an American a bigger hard on than their “property.’

    It’s okay, the Lord will make it all better, the “LOrd” needed one of it’s angels, bhlah blah, blah, religion consonants and vowels, blah blah blah, tears, lower the dude in the hole, it’s Game ovEr AmerRica.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12451337/South-Carolina-college-student-20-shot-dead-tried-wrong-home-early-morning.html

  48. Phoenix says:

    Dear ConnIcTicut pee pole.

    Be carefuL sending Your Northern Boys and Girls Down SOuth

    Dare they step foot on our porches, our property, and we don’t want them there we will ventilate them liberally vs conservatively.

    Don’t step on my porch Yankee. I have PRopErty rights.

  49. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    In Dallas a few years ago an off duty cop went home to her apartment. But she was on the wrong floor and shot a black guy dead in his own apartment. She actually got convicted and is in prison.

  50. Phoenix says:

    More ProPerty news:

    Old Asian Goat accuses boy of stealing water bottle, chases kid and shoots him in the back, hmm, in defense of his “PRoperty” that the kid never stole. What is a water bottle worth anyway Geezer?

    Then, Geezer, through his lawyer, fears the “American GOvernment” is going to do something he thinks is “illegal” and go through the “personal devices” like computers and cell phones and doesn’t want no one to see what is in them.

    Does this dolt think he has more rights here than he does in his native country? Well, maybe, but I’d guess by now they have seen everything on his hard drive.

    Good luck, RIck. THis is AmeriCa, where only when you are the PoPo can you shoot someone over a water bottle and have Qualified Immunity.

    COLUMBIA, S.C. — A court appearance today for the 58-year-old gas station owner is charged with murder in the death of a Richland County teenager.

    Rick Chow is accused of chasing 14-year-old Cyrus Carmack-Belton out of his Parklane Road business and shooting the teen in the back. Investigators say Chow thought Carmack-Belton had stolen a water bottle, although investigators say the teen had not.

    In court, the defense argued an investigation into electronic devices taken from the Chow’s home, due to a search warrant, should be stopped.

    “You’re asking me to stop it before it’s even started,” Judge Robert Hood said in court.

    Chow’s attorneys say there is information on the devices that are not relevant to the case.

    “They just have no business having access to that information,” defense attorney Jack Swerling said. “There’s documents and information that they got about time and plans, bank accounts, checks, different types of information related to the operation of a business. They have no business looking at that stuff so what other remedy would there be besides to come to court and ask them to not even look at that stuff?”

  51. Phoenix says:

    Hold my beer says:
    August 27, 2023 at 11:55 pm
    Phoenix

    In Dallas a few years ago an off duty cop went home to her apartment. But she was on the wrong floor and shot a black guy dead in his own apartment. She actually got convicted and is in prison.

    Yup, remember the case. Black guy eating a bowl of ice cream in his own apartment, drunk female cop paranoid thinking black guy wanted her when all he was interested in was Butter Pecan.

    Her going to jail doesn’t bring him back. It’s not an “even” trade.

    It’s law and order, not justice. Because sometimes you can’t have real justice, or you choose not to administer it properly. A good quote on this from Justified City Primeval by the head of the Albanian Mob, who’s member had his leg crushed by a pair trying to steal from him as the PoPo tries to get him to give up his assailant’s name:

    Albanian Mob Boss: I know you have come here to get me to compel Skender to tell you who has done this so police can arrest and serve justice as you see fit.
    Cop: He catches on fast.
    Albanian Mob Boss: Course that justice is really no justice at all. It is only satisfaction of a mandate for the appearance of order. But order and justice, they’re not the same thing. If I wanted to restore order, I could, of course, instruct Skender to cooperate. But I am not interested in order. Justice, however. Justice is meted out in accordance with the action it remedies. And in this case, justice requires more than the law is willing or able to provide.

  52. Juice Box says:

    Hughes – Monmouth race track . It is what it is. The State bought it via the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority so who knows what will happen. BTW the guy who runs the NJSEA now with his $280,000 per year annual salary is Former Secaucus plumber/construction code official turned politician Vincent Prieto.

    When the Cherry Hill’s track closed down 20 years ago. It became a Costco, Wegmans, Home Depot etc. There is no need for that here, just more housing if it were to be redeveloped. Since the state owns it perhaps the American Dream 3 mall. They will give the developer the land on a 100-year lease and hand them a Billion dollars they raise via bonds too…. That is the way the last mall was done…

  53. Juice Box says:

    Speaking of Malls.. Downtown San Fran… Right on famous Market street all the retailers are closing stores and malls etc.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/28/business/nordstrom-san-francisco-closure/index.html

  54. Juice Box says:

    Down here in Monmouth the car thieves have been at it all weekend including this morning. Lots of Alerts on Ring and Social Media.

  55. Very Stable Genius says:

    Yes, but that was only a few years ago.

    Before 1990’s the law didn’t protect Blacks. In 1992 all Rodney King defendants were acquitted in 4 hrs.

    Phoenix says:
    August 28, 2023 at 12:16 am
    Hold my beer says:
    August 27, 2023 at 11:55 pm
    Phoenix

    In Dallas a few years ago an off duty cop went home to her apartment. But she was on the wrong floor and shot a black guy dead in his own apartment. She actually got convicted and is in prison.

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You’ve Heard of Quiet Quitting. Now Companies Are Quiet Cutting.
    Workers are waking up to emails and team-meeting requests with a jarring message: They aren’t fired but their jobs are gone. Adidas, Adobe, IBM and Salesforce, among others, have reassigned employees as part of corporate restructurings. Reassigning workers can be a way to fill jobs vital to future plans. It can also be a waiting game. Employees to whom it would be costly to pay severance or months of unemployment benefits might decide to leave on their own if they feel stuck in a job they don’t want, Ray A. Smith writes.

  57. BRT says:

    Juice, when I lived in Wall, my friend from Newark stayed over my house after we went out the night before. We went to Wawa to grab coffee before we headed to work. He couldn’t believe that there were 10 running cars in the parking lot left unattended. He said, “if this were Newark, the cashier would come out and steal the car”. Same goes for Princeton. These people leave thousands of dollars and their key in their 150k car.

  58. Juice Box says:

    BRT – Back in the day I went into the 7-Eleven in Bergenfield, by the time I got back to my car the stereo was gone. Car was locked too! I locked the replacement in place with several straps and bolts to slow down anyone. This was around the time they came out with the detachable face plates when theft was rampant.

  59. Bystander says:

    Nikki’s thin veil of racism is also apparent. Black men live 6-7 years less on average. She is looking at life expectancy for average white person.

  60. Phoenix says:

    Well,

    That TS that is considering turning into a hurricane should help out the Florida insurance rates a bit.

    Man made, natural, at the end doesn’t matter. The earth is heating up and this is a result.

    Time to evacuate.

  61. Phoenix says:

    Juice Box says:
    August 28, 2023 at 8:37 am
    Down here in Monmouth the car thieves have been at it all weekend including this morning. Lots of Alerts on Ring and Social Media.

    American society is devolving.

    Call it whatever you want, I choose to use the word entropy.

  62. SmallGovConservative says:

    Bystander says:
    August 28, 2023 at 10:06 am
    “Nikki’s thin veil of racism is also apparent.”

    The rantings of a Dem stooge! When you repeatedly vote for the incompetent, corrupt and useless crumbs offered by the modern Dem party, I suppose it’s inevitable that you looks for reasons to rationalize your stupidity.

  63. Phoenix says:

    35’s cannot connect with 25’s anymore.

    Someone has to make a “Citrix” for humans.

    LA Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, 35, is struggling to connect with his younger teammates because ‘they go straight to their phones

  64. Phoenix says:

    Boomer talk:

    Such an incredibly sad situation on every single level. As a parent of 2 college age kids this is so heartbreaking. As a woman and wife who will protect myself, whatever family is home and my property…You have to do what is necessary. Prayers for all.

    Tragic – There’s a lesson to be learned here, don’t get so wasted- you can’t find your own way home. Waking at 2am by someone attempting to break into your home is NOT GOING TO END WELL.

    Why do they say accident, wrong house? Maybe he was burglarized! Still nothing good happens after midnight. You should have been in bed buddy after studying. Was that all worth it to get inebriated with substance to not even know your at the wrong house?!

  65. Bystander says:

    SGC, how’s Rutgers looking this year in Lord Schiano’s year 4? They were a power before obviously bc they went to a bowl game or something. I think that was after every other winning FBS team turned it down due to COVID. Your political analysis is about as sharp as your football analysis. Facts don’t matter – Rutgers is a football power and the R party has great plans for cutting “entitlements” fairly for all.

  66. Boomer Remover says:

    Ah, I see there is a furious c*ck measuring contest in progress today. Will check in tomorrow.

  67. Phoenix says:

    I love my Repub neighbors.

    They hate NJ, but have a disabled child, and won’t leave NJ because, they say, the benefits they get here from the school system are the best in the nation for their child. They explained to me how much NJ spends on their child, and children in general with similar conditions.

    Then they tell me how they are going to Florida, or possibly, slightly over the border into Georgia (to avoid the insurance issue) once the kid turns 18.

    So they want the democratic benefits of NJ, and tax dollars I pay, to support their child, but they don’t plan to stick around once they get what they need.
    They remind me of retired NJ teachers in that respect.

    They almost choked on their food when I asked them “don’t the children in Florida deserve the same chances as your kid.”

    I despise hypocrites.

  68. Phoenix says:

    For those of you who still like football out there, who enjoy the sport and don’t let silly politics get in the way.

    https://slickdeals.net/f/16878782-youtube-tv-s-student-nfl-sunday-ticket-is-just-109-for-a-full-season

  69. Bystander says:

    Phoenix,

    From my perspective, anyone boasting about the schools taking care of their special needs child is probably not looking too hard at reality. The Northeast offers alot of top notch specialists if you pay out of pocket. That is true and a reason to stay in area. School systems? Most schools won’t hire BCBAs as too expensive. Our district has one for multiple elementary schools and she fought us tooth and nail to actually put program, with real data tracking for my son. Even after you get the IEP agreement, you have no say on training or qualifications for people implementing program. Our speech and language therapy is handled by 62 year old woman, who is about to retire. She is incompetent and has no training on autism. It is a joke when she tries to show progress while contradicting her own data. My son is starting school year with no case manager, coordinating his IEP. Two quit last year. The third who came on board in March, informed us that she won’t be coming back to our school. Special ed “greatness” in schools is 90% hubris, not unlike the NJ school rankings and blue ribbon marketing BS. There are lots of great resources. Not a slam on therapists and teachers but the mayors, school councils, state, and bulldog schools admins all create red tape environment to block alot of progress on ground.

  70. Fast Eddie says:

    Zillow says housing prices will increase by 6.5 percent by July, 2024.

    A no-brainer in the NJ/NY/CT area. This is Newark and Paterson’s chance to finally raze the land, scurry the riff-raff and bring in productive money. Silk city becomes a series of cafes, craft breweries, eateries, specialty shops and green locales as sections of dilapidated streets are leveled and replaced with sod, trees and shrubbery.

  71. Phoenix says:

    Bystander,

    After your thoughtful and thorough post, of which I will not argue one word about, I would still think it’s better than Florida.

  72. Bystander says:

    The young women who are trained in the Northeast are tops. They get paid nothing but intelligent and dedicated (for most part) – truly life savers for people with special needs children. I would never leave for tanned, tattooed young FL dingbats at FGSU who can’t wait to hit the beach. A anti-woman a$shat like SGC will never get it.

  73. Phoenix says:

    Sodosopa

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 28, 2023 at 11:01 am
    Zillow says housing prices will increase by 6.5 percent by July, 2024.

    A no-brainer in the NJ/NY/CT area. This is Newark and Paterson’s chance to finally raze the land, scurry the riff-raff and bring in productive money. Silk city becomes a series of cafes, craft breweries, eateries, specialty shops and green locales as sections of dilapidated streets are leveled and replaced with sod, trees and shrubbery.

  74. Phoenix says:

    Pick me. I’ll be impartial. I don’t prefer any political affiliation over the other.

    I’m the guy for the job.

    Nearly 60 percent of Americans say they have at least a fair amount of trust in juries, according to a new survey — higher than for any other group in the judicial system.

    But that trust may soon be put to the test, as former President Donald J. Trump appears to be headed for multiple trials in the coming year.

    When asked specifically about Mr. Trump’s upcoming trials, a majority of Americans — Democrats, Republicans and independents — said they did not think the courts would be able to seat impartial jurors.

  75. No One says:

    I suspect the ideal diet for health is lots of fish/seafood, purple Japanese sweet potatoes, and green vegetables, supplemented by berries. And doing all the manual labor required to secure this food. But that would be boring, unless you grew up not knowing other food existed.

    FL probably isn’t the best place in the world to raise kids, but it’s a lot better than Patterson or Camden too. The poorest areas of FL have better educational outcomes than the poorest kids in NJ get, but the high end of education isn’t as good either. However, with school vouchers, I suspect the market will evolve to improve the higher performing school options as well. I’ll bet the bigger cities have some quality private schools established, especially as the investment industry has moved into Miami and that area.

    Here’s an example of a little school that’s growing, catering to folks like Fast Eddie who would like their kids to learn about “Classical America”, and providing a “classical education” in Sarasota, FL. A couple of school moms gave a presentation about the school to a local club a couple years ago.
    https://tcasarasota.com/about/the-classical-education/
    Eddie can check out their summer reading list to see what books he needs to catch up on. Watership Down is a pretty long novel for rising 5th graders. And then The Wind in the Willows for rising 7th graders? I’d reverse the order.

  76. No One says:

    Sodosopa with views of Historic Kenny’s house.

  77. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    When we lived in Livingston there was a family on our block I particularly despised, which is an impressive achievement if you’re familiar with Livingston.

    They had a special needs kid, moved to Livingston and popped out 2 more kids, and then constantly complained about their property taxes. Taxes on a 1940s colonial won’t cover the cost of one kid in school. They had 2 in school plus a special needs kid going to a special school.

  78. No One says:

    HMB,
    Sounds like the sort of people who will complain that the rich aren’t paying their fair share of taking care of their children for them.

  79. BRT says:

    Juice, that 7-11 was chaotic. I remember riding my bike there when I was 14, I was joy riding at midnight with my cousin, some drunk guys in a pickup (one riding in the back of the cab) screamed at me on the street that they were going to kill me, pulled a quick U-turn, and then randomly chucked a bottle of beer at a girl walking out. I squeezed through the pylons at the adjacent bank and they couldn’t get me. Also, that one way. Cops used hang out there and pull over anyone that came out of the lot and made the right onto Washington from that.

  80. SmallGovConservative says:

    Bystander says:
    August 28, 2023 at 11:31 am
    “I would never leave for tanned, tattooed young FL dingbats at FGSU who can’t wait to hit the beach. A anti-woman a$shat like SGC…”

    Oh the irony…

    In any case, the idea that a blue state education is better than a red state education is just another timeworn cliche that blue state Dems use to make themselves feel better about their exorbitant taxes, inferior infrastructure, and dismissive, union-led public work force. Once again, the flow of human and financial capital from blue to red is so massive that any gaps that existed in red state education systems have long since been closed. Look no further than Lib’s glowing review of the Univ of Florida, and more generally to the number of kids from the northeast who are dying to go there, UTex, etc…

  81. Bystander says:

    The irony is that FL only improved when blue state money moved there. No dummy..my three first cousins with jail time plus numerous drug addicts and alcoholics cousins tells me about FL education I count none from families that stayed in LI, NY and NJ. Well, jail time anyway. Can’t speak if they are druggies or alkies but family reunion makes that line very clear. I did not say UF, I said Florida gulf or other party center. Get real. Northeast has plenty of party schools but FL can’t come close to mimicking competition and achievement pressure in numerous NE schools. My cousins son dropped out of UF and unemployed until 30s. Talking to my older cousins, their kids live boat, weed, ocean yolo life even if parents are educated and productive. The sun and drugs element is still too strong.

  82. Very Stable Genius says:

    NJ right wingers won’t move to GOP run states. No Oklahoma, Mississippi or Kentucky for them.

  83. Bystander says:

    Just a reminder, Obama won FL twice. It is purple and once your savior gov crashes and burns , old fogies in villages die off, then you will see what younger gen believes. It ain’t abortion restrictions and bible

  84. ExEx says:

    12:44 meanwhile USF has evolved into a major research institution.
    FL is very desirable place for academics to reside. Colleges there often have very
    good professors. Students come from all over the world to study there.
    College is all about attrition. Not everyone makes it through.

  85. Fast Eddie says:

    No Oklahoma, Mississippi or Kentucky for them.

    They’re next. SC, NC, FL, TX and TN started the ball rolling, the states you mentioned above will follow shortly. Not only are right wingers aching to get away from the dem shit shows and tax extortions but independents are packing up as well. Retail in San Fran and NYC is drying up faster than a bowl of water on a Phoenix sidewalk. And if Fast Eddie is even mulling the idea of getting out of NJ, then you know it’s serious.

  86. BananaJoe says:

    You can add the electric car mandates to the rest of the blue state bullshlt. They don’t work for most people and we don’t have the infrastructure. It’s not going to stop king Murphy and his vision of grandeur.

    People will continue to separate themselves between the free states and the dogmatic states. Paradise for nj progressives is a bunch of mask wearing trans lining up for covid shots all day in their Tesla’s.

  87. SmallGovConservative says:

    Bystander says:
    August 28, 2023 at 12:44 pm
    “…my three first cousins with jail time plus numerous drug addicts and alcoholics cousins tells me about FL education… I did not say UF, I said Florida gulf or other party center…FL can’t come close to mimicking competition and achievement pressure in numerous NE schools.”

    More barely coherent ramblings. Using the AAU as a reasonable benchmark of the top research universities, note that FL already has two members (UofF, USF) — and of course UConn is nowhere to be found. I guarantee that UCF will be added to the list before UConn or any of the other bloated, mediocre, overpriced northeast schools including Syracuse, UMass, UDel, Temple, etc…As for FGCU, my place is just 15 minutes west of it and I can tell you that the resources being funneled to it dwarf anything that the dying blue states are able to devote to their state schools — especially the non-AAU schools. So even FGCU has a better chance of eventually making that list than do any of the has-been/never-were northeast schools.

    https://www.aau.edu/who-we-are/our-members

  88. Bystander says:

    Thats great SGC. Trade in Sir Henry for Azul. They have already surpassed them in Bball success ,given last tourney. Not UConn though. Speaking of dying areas, semi-serious question…are you getting sandbags and plywood ready?

  89. Hold my beer says:

    No One

    They were awful. They had a special needs kid, moved to a town with a highly rated program, had 2 more kids, and then cry about property taxes. They were using at least 66k in school resources alone and paying around 8k a year

  90. 3b says:

    Hold: What is snatched?

  91. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    I have no Idea what that means. That’s how the nurse claims you will look with her hack.

  92. Hold my beer says:

    3b

    Had to ask my teens. Snatched means to look good/attractive.

  93. 3b says:

    Hold: Thanks. I will tell my wife she looks snatched tonight; I will probably get a look!

  94. Old realtor says:

    Hearing the type of stories from different people that make me believe the real estate frenzy in our area has peaked. Multiple stories of high bidders in multi offer situations backing out in attorney review. Hearing it from agents and mortgage brokers.

  95. phoenix says:

    You have a better future looking snatched and landing a physician than doing this career for thirty years. The hot ones know this and act accordingly.

    Hmb ive was very good.

  96. BRT says:

    As far as a North East education goes, 10 years ago, it was solidly way ahead of the rest of the nation. That gap is closing, and not in a good way. We threw our lead in the trash with our school shutdowns and we are more likely to focus on social issues before the kids ever learn read/write and learn math. As a result, most just aren’t doing it that well without outside help.

  97. BRT says:

    My sister moved out of Portland Oregon (after 8 years) back to NJ this past week fleeing the decline of the standard of living there. She initially tried to move to a suburb but the nonsense from the city was bleeding into it. Homeless people squatting in everyone’s backyards. Increases in crime. She moved in with my Uncle who has a 60k crap shack in Manchester, Ocean County. She’s a hardcore left winger who is now surrounded by Trump signs. She must have been desperate.

  98. ExEx says:

    Anyone that still has Trump signs out has bigger problems.

  99. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    Good to know. But did they look snatched? Hopefully they’ll tour the country soon.

  100. 3b says:

    Old: Is it people getting cold feet, coming to their senses?

  101. Juice Box says:

    re: “Multiple stories of high bidders in multi-offer situations backing out in attorney review”

    Perhaps they realized that a mortgage payment of 50% of NET income is madness?

  102. Fast Eddie says:

    Multiple stories of high bidders in multi offer situations backing out in attorney review.

    The brokers and agents are colluding to frighten the “winning” buyers because a higher bid came in. This freight train is motoring!

  103. Fast Eddie says:

    3b,

    We’re Palo Alto now. 800K is the going rate for a 3bd/1.5 bth.

  104. Fabius Maximus says:

    “I don’t overeat and work out hard.”

    My father summed that mantra up as “I’ve been to more thin peoples funerals than fat peoples.”

    He started that cynicism in his 40’s. He shared an office with a guy for 10 years. Guy had a heart attack and died in his 40’s and left the wife with small kids. Guy was a gym regular and training for a marathon.

    My father, did not exercise, smoked heavily into his 50’s and gave up. Didn’t touch sprits, but drank beer. He died at 75 and I think it was a box of strawberries that got him. He didn’t wash them and I think the pesticide put him in the hospital and into a three week quarantine with something they couldn’t find. Two years later Soft Cell Sarcoma got him.

  105. Fast Eddie says:

    …we are more likely to focus on social issues before the kids ever learn read/write and learn math.

    Non-binary bathroom etiquette is more important than the binomial theorem!!

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Have you been listening to me on here since the record green day rally…that I called peak on to the day on here. Lib laugbed at my BOJ assessment…it’s real, lib. CRACKS forming…

    3b says:
    August 28, 2023 at 7:11 pm
    Old: Is it people getting cold feet, coming to their senses?

  107. Hold my beer says:

    Boomers who oppose socialism are kept alive by Medicare and will want us to subsidize their homeowners insurance policies. What will rates go up to if this is the worst hurricane in 100 years to hit that section of Florida.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12454981/Hurricane-Idalia-strongest-storm-hit-Florida-bend-century-hit-Category-3-strength-gusts-150-mph.html

  108. Hold my beer says:

    Sell a loose cigarette on the street or pass a fake $20 at a bodega the cops will kill you.

    A company that knowingly overcharges the government for hundreds of millions and you get fined. Internally the company didn’t call it fraud, it was risk compliance. Did anyone even get fired or lost their bonuses for this?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12455355/Marine-veteran-Sarah-Feinberg-tried-stop-Booz-Allen-defense-contractor-defrauding-taxpayers-awarded-69-MILLION-377-million-restitution-firm-ordered-pay-little-known-law.html

  109. Very Stable Genius says:

    The Sackler Family and Purdue pharma made billions in profit by creating the biggest drug crisis in America and nobody went to jail.

    3M sold fraudulent products to the army and only has to pay a fine. No real repercussions.

    Hold my beer says:
    August 29, 2023 at 7:54 am

    Sell a loose cigarette on the street or pass a fake $20 at a bodega the cops will kill you.

    A company that knowingly overcharges the government for hundreds of millions and you get fined. Internally the company didn’t call it fraud, it was risk compliance. Did anyone even get fired or lost their bonuses for this?

  110. Chicago says:

    The End Is Nigh (Fast Eddie Edition):

    Note#3
    Young, rich workers are flocking to these 10 states, says new research
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/27/young-rich-workers-flee-new-york-and-californiawhere-theyre-going.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.Message

  111. Chicago says:

    The Ten. Market just loves this 424 area. Like back when we sat at 380.

  112. Chicago says:

    What about Vidalia Onions?

    No One says:
    August 28, 2023 at 11:50 am
    I suspect the ideal diet for health is lots of fish/seafood, purple Japanese sweet potatoes, and green vegetables, supplemented by berries. And doing all the manual labor required to secure this food. But that would be boring, unless you grew up not knowing other food existed

  113. Fast Eddie says:

    Young, rich workers are flocking to these 10 states, says new research…

    Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama are next in line. Affordability, remote work and newer environs are more desirable. I think the cities are decaying. When I went to the NASCAR race at the Atlanta track a few months ago, I stayed in Peach Tree City. My friends moved to Fayetteville so they ushered me around. The hotel was immaculate, Peach Tree City and surrounding area was newer, clean, very tidy in the strip mall areas, Publix food stores were immaculate and huge, all positives that I could see. There were even new, larger health facilities dotted around the towns.

    I was surprised, I didn’t know what to expect. My friend and his wife and kids have been there for eight years now and said the area is building up. These are the places people are moving to… more areas that reflect traditional America.

    We went to some pub/bar place with craft beer, great burger style menu and a three place blues band that was awesome. The place looked like a bar straight out of Hoboken; a refinished, old brick industrial type place. There were two African American couples at separate tables and a confederate flag on the wall but nobody seemed to mind or question it. I thought that was interesting.

    All in all, a great experience, really impressed with the cleanliness and newness of numerous roads, state highways, medical facilities and plazas.

  114. Juice Box says:

    FDIC news anyone?

    Regions Financial, M&T Bank, Citizens Financial, Northern Trust, Fifth Third Bancorp need to raise 12 Billion.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/29/regional-banks-to-be-forced-to-raise-debt-in-case-of-failure.html

  115. Boomer Remover says:

    Came across this in my local FB community group, the only reason I keep an account.

    “Just prior to the Revolutionary War Bergen County consisted of seven townships. Today Bergen County has 70 incorporated municipalities, some of which are only one square mile, or less. This sad state of affairs occurred as a result of ‘Boroughitis’ a political disease that afflicted the state of NJ in the 1890s but hit Bergen especially hard. As a result New Jersey has more incorporated municipalities than California, a state that has 20 times the land area and 5 times as many residents. A very good book on this topic was written by the late Alan Karcher, who was a member of the NJ State Assembly. ”

    h**ps://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Jersey_s_Multiple_Municipal_Madness/o0BmBWloogcC?hl=en&gbpv=0

  116. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    Been there myself. It is nice. But not inexpensive.

    Stranger things was filmed in that area. My kid visited most of the filming sights there.

  117. Fast Eddie says:

    Stranger things was filmed in that area.

    So was “The Walking Dead.” They brought me to the areas of the filming. I watched neither series but the family is into the “Stranger Things” saga.

    The surrounding area is not dirt cheap but way less than what we deal with in the People’s Republic of NJ.

  118. Juice Box says:

    Boomer – A relative of mine was in charge of a plan to share services between towns. It was a state and county initiative under Corzine. They could not even get one town to share a Snow Blower in July. The only way it is going to happen is if the State passes a law, that won’t happen and probably won’t pass legal challenges. Just look at the school funding changes Governor Murphy put in back in 2018. These small towns were supposed to merge etc, it never happened and the 25 or so non-operating school districts I believe are still around.

  119. Very Stable Genius says:

    But you are firmly staying in NJ. So, whatever

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 29, 2023 at 10:05 am
    Young, rich workers are flocking to these 10 states, says new research…

    Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama are next in line.

  120. Fast Eddie says:

    Today Bergen County has 70 incorporated municipalities, some of which are only one square mile, or less.

    Thus, your taxes need to pay for the $240,000 per year School Superintendent and the $185,000 per year Police Chief in every one mile town. Because, you know, a place like River Vale has rampant crime! /sarcasm off

  121. Fast Eddie says:

    But you are firmly staying in NJ.

    I’ll keep you updated to feed your failing attempts at schadenfreude and to take your mind off your premature ejaculation issues.

  122. No One says:

    Pasting this to upset the pumpkin:

    “The Myth of the Magical Office
    Many CEOs are clinging to the false belief that the office is the secret sauce to productivity. It’s as if they think the office is a productivity vending machine: insert employee, receive increased output. But the data tells a different story.

    Instead of being a productivity wonderland, the office is more like a productivity black hole, where collaboration, socializing, mentoring, and on-the-job training thrive, but focused work gets sucked into oblivion. In fact, research shows that the office is detrimental to productivity.

    For instance, a recent study by scholars at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Harvard University, and the University of Iowa found that software engineers located in different buildings on the same campus wrote more computer programs than those who were sitting close to colleagues. However, the engineers who worked in different buildings commented less on others’ code. In other words, they were more productive but that meant that less experienced coders got weaker mentorship.

    To put it simply, expecting the office to boost productivity is like expecting a fish to ride a bicycle: the office serves a different, and very important purpose. The EY-Parthenon research shows a direct correlation between the forced return to the office and plummeting productivity. The numbers don’t lie: people are working longer hours and barely putting out more products. It’s high time we stop trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.”

  123. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I can’t stand the people that promote WFH as productive. They know better than all the CEO’s. Got it.

  124. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Stonks only go up! Lmao.

    Wanted to get Bitcoin cheaper, guess I have to wait a little longer.

  125. The Great Pumpkin says:

    WALMART $WMT IS REPORTEDLY ASKING PHARMACISTS TO VOLUNTARILY TAKE WAGE CUTS AND REDUCE HOURS WORKED TO SAVE COSTS – Bloomberg

  126. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I don’t see how a recession doesn’t happen.

  127. Juice Box says:

    Sigh my new neighbor has the tree guy here ripping out some beautiful trees and shrubs along our fence line, all because the wife thinks the berries will poison their dogs. Did not happen with the last owners dogs or mine either.

    I can now see clearly into their backyard as the fence is the open metal railing design,which he owns, but it does look a little short I think it needs to be 4 ft. Anyhow tree guys managed to take out the wood stockade fence out back, so I gather a new fence will be coming, as you cannot have an exposed unfenced pool for long.

    Either way in the spring I will be filling in the openings in the shrubbery on my side as I enjoy my oasis privacy immensely, and I don’t need his thee dogs constantly barking at me as I am in my yard or pool relaxing.

  128. Hold my beer says:

    Juice

    Get dogwoods or crepe myrtles. The flowers can rain down on their pool

  129. 3b says:

    No One: That is absolutely no surprise on the decline in productivity, office vs WFH.

  130. ExEx says:

    3:34 workers > ceos

  131. The Great Pumpkin says:

    He nails it. The housing market is no longer functioning and completely broken. This winter there will be barely any activity. The trauma of this housing crisis hasn’t been prices. It’s been the complete breakdown of the system.

  132. Bystander says:

    “Get dogwood”

    They are obsessed with dogwoods in my town. Idiot who installed pool 20 years, proudly planted dogwoods around in-ground perimeter. They are the devils tree. It never stops..hard green seeds in spring, flowers that blow petals and pollen at start of summer, flowers again late summer and now the big squishy red berries that stain outdoor furniture. F* dogwoods.

  133. OC1 says:

    “The trauma of this housing crisis hasn’t been prices. It’s been the complete breakdown of the system.”

    Think mortgage rates today are too high? Well, they were higher from 1972 all the way to about 2001.

    You know, during the time that all those lucky boomers were buying their houses.

    The problem with the housing market today is lack of supply.

    And the lack of supply is caused by all the NIMBY zoning rules that most existing homeowners absolutely love.

    You want a functioning housing market? Build more houses where people want to live!

  134. 3b says:

    Lack of supply and affordability due to over inflated housing market caused by reckless Fed monetary policy.

  135. BRT says:

    Juice, grow some grapes on the fence, those actually will poison the dogs

  136. Juice Box says:

    Tucker has on Orban

    Gird your loins for this one liberals..

    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1696643892253466712

  137. Juice Box says:

    BRT – I would never do that I like dogs better than allot of people. I am going to plant some nice shrubs in the spring. I have about 50% of the fence line already covered with some great flowering bushes and plants, the former neighbor had laurel trees, some can be poisonous to animals etc, I get what they took them out…

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The yield curve is steepening by 10bps today

    That is happening as bond prices are rising (bull steepening)

    This is typically the behavior you see heading into recessions

    https://x.com/petermassaut/status/1696537477266436591?s=46&t=0eaRjeKWHSIY8WCyPT4KMg

  139. OC1 says:

    “Lack of supply and affordability due to over inflated housing market caused by reckless Fed monetary policy.”

    Normally supply rises to meet demand, except when supply is artificially constrained (in the case of housing, by NIMBYs and zoning.)

    You would expect that “reckless Fed monetary policy” to cause a building boom… but it didn’t.

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