Does the sales dip precede the price decline?

Posted on October 16, 2023 by grim

From the WSJ:

Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust

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26 Responses to Does the sales dip precede the price decline?

  1. Very Stable Genius says:
    October 16, 2023 at 7:06 am

    Yes

  2. grim says:
    October 16, 2023 at 7:30 am

    I’d I imagine we’d end the year somewhere close to that 4m mark.

  3. Juice Box says:
    October 16, 2023 at 7:41 am

    The pool of home buyers willing to overpay has shrunk.

    1,504,689 Homes for Sale in the USA as of September. Yes, inventory is down 15.8%, but plenty is still available.

    Lower the asking price and it will sell, every Realtor should be given a new pitch book and reprogrammed all the NAR advertising should be a SOLD skit of a happy story where the homeowner was able to sell and walk away with a nice chuck of change by lowering their price.

  4. JUice Box says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:06 am

    Reading up on what Workday is now pitching for their AI.

    Their training data for their AI is the 60 million workers enrolled across customers pretty much every vertical.

    Their AI tool is called “Skills Cloud”. It is pitched as it will be able to accurately pick out who to cull and promote when the annual or semiannual workforce realignment occurs.

    For example, it will pick a 20-something ex-military veteran who on his resume listed his leadership skills of managing large teams of troops as well as millions of dollars of military equipment, a person who normally would not be considered for a management position in a corporation because they simply did not have the requisite amount of time aka 20 years experience etc.

    In this case HR Dept will be given way more power over promotions and hires. The AI does not think you Eddie good fit for the job, yes you have decades of experience and gray hair from working your butt off, but Steve that new hire from Accounting well he can manage two platoons and can easily take on two dozen reports over in the Audit Dept.

    Interesting times dead ahead.

  5. Fast Eddie says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:21 am

    For example, it will pick a 20-something ex-military veteran who on his resume listed his leadership skills of managing large teams of troops as well as millions of dollars of military equipment, a person who normally would not be considered for a management position in a corporation because they simply did not have the requisite amount of time aka 20 years experience etc.

    Who would argue with these skills? What’s iffy about it? If someone in HR needs AI to determine if this person has the skills to succeed, then THEY need to be replaced.

  6. Fast Eddie says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:23 am

    Lower the asking price and it will sell…

    No need to in this area. I don’t even see the “For Sale” signs anymore. They just list it and place the “Under Contract” sign on the lawn a few days later.

  7. Very Stable Genius says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:38 am

    AI will pick cheapest worker.
    Yet more grievances for entitled Ed and his friends.

  8. Very Stable Genius says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:47 am

    I bet there’s plenty of students at southern Christian colleges looking for jobs. But Ken and Bill will never hire them.

    Ken Griffin joined calls to telling The Times that they were “unforgivable.” The billionaire financier, who has donated over $300 million to Harvard, said he had pressed a senior university official to denounce students.
    He added that his Citadel hedge fund would never hire such students, echoing remarks by his rival, Bill Ackman.

  9. grim says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:48 am

    Cue the discrimination lawsuits, there is enough bias in AI to make this really easy, especially when the company using the AI, had nothing to do with creating the AI. Given current public perception about job loss, this will be a slam dunk.

  10. Juice Box says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:52 am

    re: “THEY need to be replaced.”

    I am sure every single person in the HR field thinks that AI will be used by them as a tool only as they think it cannot completely replace human judgment, intuition, and interpersonal skills. Always reminds me of the scene with the two Bobs from Office Space… “What would you say you do here?” “I’m a people person dammit!”

    As I have said interesting times dead ahead. Some CFO has been practicing his talking points on using AI for the next realignment aka reorganization. Which company fails first? Again we are talking about Humans making decisions here using what they think is a better algorithm. It is bound to fail, not to say it won’t eventually be successful. Failure and invention are inseparable wins. We shall see some spectacular blowups.

  11. Juice Box says:
    October 16, 2023 at 8:58 am

    As far as human judgment and skills go. Gladwell might need to update his book Outliers.

    10,000 hour rule of intensive practice to achieve mastery? AI can do it for you, so no really no need to practice. AI can already create artwork, write songs, etc. So why not decision-making?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRsycWRQrc8

  12. grim says:
    October 16, 2023 at 9:11 am

    Regarding Workday.

    Learn how to game the AI, it’s that easy.

    I remember at my last gig, the sales leader was obsessed with Gong (if you don’t know it, it’s a sales-focused AI that joins meetings and provides insight into how well salespeople do. They do offer a few things like meeting notes and summaries, that make it seem like it’s beneficial for the salespeople, but really, it’s just listening in to make sure you are doing your job.

    I wasn’t a seller but was frequently on sales calls. Within a week I was at the top of the scorecard, by a long shot. Right behind me was our head of analytics, who had spent the few years prior developing and deploying NLU/speech analytics for call centers.

    Snicker, all it took was understanding what the AI was listening for, and to be sure to always use the right words and phrases in discussion. It didn’t even matter how you used the words, or whether the phrases were even in the right context. The last 5 minutes of the call, act like Alec Baldwin (Blake) was listening in ready to jump in with the always be closing speech. Reiterate the problem statement, get the “buyer” to agree. Set a follow up, even if a follow up is not required. Confirm things, budget, need, are they decisionmaker, etc. Confirm a close date. Throw in a few other “closing” phrases.

    Same will go for AI in HR. Power words in your goals, feedback, stored resume/profile, and experience is key. Likewise checking the right boxes on learning activities, etc. Start treating it like a college application, really though, you’ll be re-applying for your job every year under this new regime anyway.

    I’ll give it a month before there is an entire community of reddit that has figured out how to hack their way to being considered the top performer.

  13. Boomer Remover says:
    October 16, 2023 at 9:44 am

    How did you know you were atop the rankings? Were real time rankings shared with employees?

  14. Juice Box says:
    October 16, 2023 at 9:45 am

    That is a statement!

    “Industry experts compare Llama’s positioning in generative AI to that of Linux”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/16/metas-open-source-approach-to-ai-puzzles-wall-street-techies-love-it.html

    As if they need to out do Jensen Huang who compares his NVIDIA products to the invention of the System 360. “We have reinvented computing for the first time since IBM system 360.”

  15. ExLax says:
    October 16, 2023 at 10:29 am

    9:11 good luck with that. Coffee is for closers.

  16. Phoenix says:
    October 16, 2023 at 10:34 am

    “I’ll give it a month before there is an entire community of reddit that has figured out how to hack their way to being considered the top performer.”

    Sounds interesting. Until only the slackers are left and the company can’t figure out why nothing is getting done.

    My guess is that it’s going to be very adept at gaslighting customers as well.

  17. Phoenix says:
    October 16, 2023 at 10:35 am

    Hate comes home….

    ‘I’m fine’: Father reveals final words of boy, six, who was ‘murdered for being Muslim’ – as Illinois landlord is charged with stabbing him 26 times with 12-inch knife – ‘because of Israel terror attacks’

  18. Phoenix says:
    October 16, 2023 at 10:39 am

    Give it ten or twenty seconds…

    https://youtu.be/0rzTLsYJjqM?t=44

  19. Phoenix says:
    October 16, 2023 at 10:54 am

    The camera snagged you. This one you are never going to live down.
    Doesn’t get less skanky than this :

    https://x.com/WomenPostingLs/status/1713579176026947665?s=20

  20. Fast Eddie says:
    October 16, 2023 at 11:06 am

    In further news, it occurred to me that WWIII began under the O’Biden administration. Not that this is exclusive info, it’s just that the news organizations are trying not to say it out loud. Regardless of political affiliation, no muppet wants to suffer or face the fact that things are dire and unpredictable.

    Russia invades Ukraine; Hamas and Hezbollah terrorize Israel, drawing them into full scale war; Iran is backing and funding both through endorsements and encouragement from China and Russia; China now has its sights on Taiwan and/or South Korea.

    Weaken the resolve of the west little by little and a global reset is achieved. The despots of the world know the west and primarily the U.S. is preoccupied with fast food, becoming fat and dumb, 30 second videos of nonsense and Taylor Swift-like entertainment. Any questions?

  21. ExLax says:
    October 16, 2023 at 11:29 am

    One question. When will you die?

  22. leftwing says:
    October 16, 2023 at 5:11 pm

    Quiet in here today….

    “leftwing says:
    September 26, 2023 at 1:13 pm
    So, Lib…Want to juggle knives? DG. Ugly…If you wanted to try to harvest some yield, there are 11/17 95P bid at 1.65…”

    You hop in, think you looked at it?

    Shares up 8% since, the option position returned 75%

  23. chicagofinance says:
    October 16, 2023 at 6:17 pm

    The End Is Nigh (leftwing Edition):
    https://x.com/samaberman/status/1713687680280641596?s=20

  24. ExLax says:
    October 16, 2023 at 7:22 pm

    Defund the Ivies. Bunch of cockloads.

  25. The Great Pumpkin says:
    October 16, 2023 at 9:24 pm

    We’ve reached the end of an era for the Chinese economy.

    For the past three decades, China has been on the upswing of a supercycle that saw an almost uninterrupted expansion of the country’s capacity to manufacture, appetite to consume, and ability to project power across the world economy. The Chinese Communist Party relentlessly pursued economic development over all else, even when that single-mindedness pushed the party to make debilitating policy mistakes — creating a massive bubble in the property market, saddling provinces with loads of debt, and failing to transition away from an overreliance on investment. There was no time to stop for corrections while China’s mind was on money alone.

    This era of expansion was not only a boon for Beijing, it also helped fuel global demand. Countries relied on China’s hunger for speedy modernization and industrial might to supercharge their own development. Even American companies saw China as the next great global market — and made bets accordingly.

    They lost those bets.

    China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has shifted the CCP’s raison d’être to national security over the economy. Getting rich isn’t China’s big project anymore; the project is power. As a result, both the government’s priorities and its behavior have changed. In the past, whenever it seemed that a recession was on the horizon, the CCP came to the rescue. There’s no hefty stimulus coming this time. Nor will the explosive growth that experts once expected from China return. Beijing’s relationship with the outside world is no longer guided by the principles of economic rationality, but rather by its yearning for political power.

    “This isn’t about the economy anymore, it’s all about advanced technology and weaponry,” Lee Miller, the founder of the Chinese economic surveyor China Beige Book, told me.

    In response, American businesses need to consider how else Beijing’s decision-making may now be flipped on its axis. For everyone from American farmers to pharmaceutical companies, this means shrinking demand and unstable supply chains. For policymakers, it means a China that is harder to mollify when conflicts arise. For the rest of us, it’s a more precarious world.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:
    October 16, 2023 at 9:27 pm

    Victor Shih, an associate professor and the director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego, told me that when people ask him if there will be a financial crisis in China, he tells them that China “is constantly in a financial crisis.” It’s like the authorities are playing a game of whack-a-mole, trying to contain any shocks to the financial system because they fear social instability. That means there can be no correction, but if there’s no correction, there’s no deleveraging, and if there’s no deleveraging, the moles will only multiply.

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