From the Philly Inquirer:
How the ‘lock-in effect’ is helping shape today’s housing market
Why? the supply of homes, as measured by homes for sale, is way down. It looks like we will end 2023 with inventory shrinking between 10% and 15% over the year.
And that raises the question, why are people not putting their homes on the market when prices have risen so much over the past few years? It’s largely due to the surge in prices and mortgage rates, but not for the normal reasons.
Over the past 10 years, home prices have basically doubled. During that time, interest rates were at historic lows. If you bought a home or refinanced, your mortgage was likely 4.5% or less. Unfortunately, those low-rate mortgages have created a major quandary for homeowners.
If the homeowners sell their house, they can realize the price gains and put the funds toward a new home. But then they have to give up their low mortgage rate and take out a new loan at a significantly higher rate. Going from a 4% mortgage to an 8% one, for a different home whose price has also doubled, creates more financial strain than many people would likely want.
The unwillingness to trade in a low-rate mortgage for a high-rate one, a threat that economists warned about years ago, has been nicknamed the “lock-in effect.” Goldman-Sachs estimated that “nearly all mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market rates, and that almost 90% have rates more than 2pp below and over 60% have rates more than 4pp below.”
In other words, if you own a home and are thinking of selling and moving to another house, you are almost certainly facing mortgage rates a lot higher than you currently have. That is making most homeowners think twice about entering the market. The soaring mortgage rates have created a financial barrier to selling and moving. Think of it as “Golden Handcuffs.”
Quite the conundrum. Until mortgage rates drop a few percentage points, the stalemate will remain. I think about the same; I can sell and make a profit but I’m not buying a lesser house in the same area with the same monthly payment or more. What’s the point? So, like many others, we stay put. The only other option is to move out of state.
First to say first
“Abortion-Rights Supporters Rack Up Victories, Putting GOP in Bind for 2024. From red Ohio and Kentucky to purple Virginia and Pennsylvania, Tuesday’s results show issue’s continued potency…”
Insightful.
“Last night results show that the Supreme Court is radicalized and out of step with rest of the country.”
Obtuse
Fast: Define a few ? There are people out there assuming rates will get back to 3 percent, and soon, and then all will be well. As for right now, does a drop from 8 to 7 percent do it? I would think not. 8 to 6, or 8 to 5.
Seems to me like the Supreme Court got it right as far as turning abortion over to the states, if people are concerned about abortion rights in their state, then they can vote for the party who will protect abortion rights in that state. I think the Supreme Court should have left it alone, but they did not, and now its being addressed at the state level, so in that sense it is working.
3b,
8% down to 6% is psychological move (as well as physical). The muppets will think this is a window of opportunity. More houses get listed, prices MAY get tempered a due to increasing inventory and a 6% mortgage on top of a 50K price drop in the house feels like a win for the buyer. Sellers may think they better make the move now or perhaps lose steam on pricing. The 200 basis points drop will be the oil for the gears. It needs to be substantial enough to get the wheels turning. The question: Will it drop 200 basis points and stay there? Drop further? Or move in the opposite direction and go to 9% or better? What’s your prediction?
As for the elections… my body, my choice rules the day. Except for vaccines and taxes, then you have no choice. Compromise, you know? Oh, and lotsa a legal weed so you can continue to screw and bludgeon the ‘thing’ when you don’t want it… even when it’s a viable human. Do it quick though, we don’t to hear the ‘thing’ screaming too loudly for too long. Funny isn’t it… some had the privilege of being born to have the freedom to choose those humans that have no choice. Hey! Maybe some of those Hamas dudes can show us how to lop off a baby’s head to end the suffering quickly! You know, it’s a shame to see ‘it’ suffer.
Fast: What if the rates drop, to 6 percent, but no 50k price drop? Or, go further, and a decline to 6 percent increases asking price?
3b,
It depends on inventory numbers, yes? Do we have more selection or are we limited?
Fast:Twilight Zone, great job by the Fed!
3b, I agree. The supreme court ruled on its own limitations, and that’s a good thing.
Nepotism Barbie takes the stand.
Trump finds her very attractive
LAX says:
November 8, 2023 at 10:15 am
Nepotism Barbie takes the stand.
The homebuilders will build a lot more if mortgage rates are lower. Keep in mind, the golden handcuffs the writer in today’s article describes will eventually wear off. Especially for those moving from a more expensive to a cheaper place to live.
Consider my family, for example. We would have moved already if we weren’t locked into a sub 2% ten-year mortgage rate. We plan to move from an expensive neighborhood in an expensive state to a reasonable neighborhood in a dirt cheap state. Right now, our house is probably worth 1 million. The house we plan to buy will probably be around 500K. If you do the math on what we will save in taxes, tolls, income tax, etc, we would save 30K a year without lifting a finger. This is each and every year. And as time wears on, since the base of taxes is starting at such a high number here versus there (20K a year vs. 2K), the savings grow exponentially over time as increases will most likely be at a similar percentage. The second phenomenon we look forward to is the delay in housing prices to fall in the haughty taughty areas versus the less prestigious. Though a million dollar home will lose twice as much dollar value versus a 500K home, prices will most likely decrease at a quicker pace in Las Vegas for they accelerated at a quicker pace and increased in value at a much greater percentage. I think this phenomenon is due to the fact that people out that way simply have less in savings and are much more likely to stretch into homes than they are here. So on the way down, there are lots of defaults and so much more inventory that prices drop rapidly. Already, they are down over 10% from peak last year. My current home, according to Zillow is down about 5% in the same time span.
Getting back to those golden handcuffs. As you pay a mortgage, the interest is front loaded. So the longer you stay in your home, the amount of principle you pay increases and the amount of interest decreases. So if you move now, with the insane mortgage rates, you are throwing a lot of money to the bank in interest with almost no principle to speak of. You are building zero equity. Heck, if I was to move tomorrow, I probably wouldn’t even get a mortgage. I would just pay cash.
3B/Eddie, stop looking at Wall Streets bets on interest rates. They are constantly wrong. I full well expect interest rates to go up another one to two percent within a year’s time. Find someone on Wall Street who believes the same thing. The consumer is incredibly resilient and even moreso when the stock market is making them feel richer, which is coming soon. People are house rich, stock market rich and most are locked into cheap mortgages. The job market remains strong enough for the soft landing. It’s gonna take higher interest rates to slow the consumer down. Either that or a lot more time.
Is a tax rebate really a rebate?
Never forget: https://imgur.com/gallery/UhQrsJj
They voted the radical boe in last night, they were running on book banning in schools and outing transgender students. Someone put a lot of money that campaign
The grassroots are strong among the Trumpies. I’ve noticed this phenomenon since the Tea Party days. The problem is, and I know I am coming off elitist, is that being politically active does not mean you are right. It does not matter how many people show up at Trump Rallies or how many people march in front of the abortion clinic. What does matter is voting because that’s how we count public opinion. I think the populists lose track of that sometimes.
Lib: Insane mortgage rates at 8 percent? Soft landing? How we do know when we have achieved it? One of the rare times, was 94/95, and I don’t recall it Aa all that soft, but it was not a full blown recession. If we achieve the soft landing, do we ever have a recession again? What will trigger that recession if it comes. As for rising stock market coming, we shall see. I am skeptical, I may very well be wrong, but what do I know!
Our school board was a pretty nasty fight. In the end we didn’t want a former drug dealer, a woman who is transitioning her child, a few other raging liberals including a bar owner. The incumbents got about 40% more votes. We are one of the towns being sued by the Attorney General and the Governor over the school trans policy.
Policy is simply. Teachers are now required to notify parents if their child seeks to officially go by a different name or gender pronoun, or use a different bathroom in school. The state argues it must be kept from the parents.
Would they keep underage drinking or smoking or doing drugs from the parents? How about pregnancy? How about a suicide attempt? They are overreaching here the well being of the child is the parents responsibility 24 x 7 for medical and/or psychiatric issues, the school systems only responsibility is to notify parents as they really do not provide insurance or medical care beyond the school nurse and calling an ambulance.
We are at risk losing state aid or even a partial or full state takeover, Governor Murphy and Attorney General Platkin will be gone from office in another year or so, case won’t be settled before then.
3b,
We had a very short recession after the tech bubble if you recall. The reason it was so short was due to ZIRP and the explosion of the housing market. And now you know why so many Wall Street guys are calling for a recession and interest rate cuts (my number 3 yesterday). Though I don’t see either happening. I think we will continue to slog along right through a very minor recession. Heck, we are probably in it right now. See fuel prices? Freight demand is dropping, etc. There is no reason it always has to be hard. And if it was hard, FED would just cut the rates. Especially with the election in question.
Juice, teachers shouldn’t have to report to parents what bathroom there kid uses.
Trick – We are being told that people who seek to use different bathrooms are at a higher risk of suicide. How is this not an issue the parents should be informed about? If the child is at risk of suicide the parents should be notified END of STORY. The school systems cannot and will not provide what ever care that person a minor child may need, they are not equipped for it and not legally obliged to provide it.
My wife’s is supposed to report if a kids is showing signs of suicide or any other harmful issues. To out a kid that is afraid to tell there parents is worse.
Trick says:
November 8, 2023 at 12:42 pm
“teachers shouldn’t have to report to parents what bathroom there kid uses.”
I know that I shouldn’t be shocked anymore, but the stupidity and utter detachment from reason exhibited by libs/leftists/progressives still surprises me at times. Your reasoning (I use the term very loosely) is precisely why this happened…
How a Virginia District ‘Failed at Every Juncture’ to Prevent Sexual Assault – https://www.edweek.org/leadership/how-a-virginia-district-failed-at-every-juncture-to-prevent-sexual-assault/2022/12
Trick – There is no legal basis for it. Congress enacted FERPA to enhance parents’ right to receive information about their children at school, not to have it withheld. By definition a minor’s right to privacy is traditionally held by the parents until the reach age 18. Troxel v. Tommie Granville Supreme Court ruling have upheld it too.
The need to change the laws before they can win this one. The idea that an entire school system students, teachers and faculty can all address a child by a different name, use a different pronoun which at that point becomes PUBLIC knowledge yet the parents are not allowed to know? Parents right to disagree or guide their children, the is effectively forfeited by the fact that the child attends a public school?
So if I were to ask my child’s teacher what name they use in class they are going to lie to me?
I for one think it’s overreach as the care, custody, and control of my children is my legal responsibility and not the state…it simply not legal to lie to me or withhold information about my child.
Libturd says:
November 8, 2023 at 11:42 am
“What does matter is voting…”
You’re showing your age; voting is so twentieth century…What actually matters, as the Dems have shown, is ballot harvesting. Though the Dems may very well have found 80+ million mailed ballots for Joe, you don’t really think he got 80+ million ‘votes’, do you? And a guy like Futterman, do you really think he would be a senator were it not for mailed ballots harvested in Philly?
Small, not even going to waste my time. I’m far from what you describe, have voted rep most of my life. Problem is everybody is an extremist and nobody is centered.
1:25 nobody’s buying that bullshit. Find another story.
Me too trick. The party has been hijacked by cuckoos.
As for the parent notification…if you don’t know your kid thinks he’s batting for the other team, then you are simply a terrible parent.
And most of the time, the bad governing is not a liberal mandate thing. It’s simply a stupid politician thing. Where completely unqualified losers, who probably couldn’t make it without union protection in the the government, wouldn’t last a single month in the private sector. Think Fauci or the morons who are requiring parental notification for a child who wants to terminate their pregnancy. How is this any different than using the other bathroom. Are you for freedom or not? You can’t take a different position on every position. I swear, half of the crap politicians come up with is detrimental to quality of life. They make this shit up because they have absolutely nothing to do. Like the plastic bag law. How many canvas bags do you all have at home now? I’ve got 100s more than the number of plastic bags I had and I reused the plastic bags.
“I’m not an accountant,” Ivanka Trump told a New York court on Wednesday as she took the witness stand at her father’s $250m fraud trial and was quizzed about deals prosecutors claim prove the Trump Organization knowingly misled lenders.
Trump’s eldest daughter gave an orderly, calm performance after the often chaotic testimony of her father and brothers. She pointed out that she had not worked for the family firm since 2017 and said she did not recall many specific conversations but added: “I have no reason to doubt it.”
But like her father and brothers, she consistently said she did not recall details about specific transactions or conversations. “There were many emails, many conversations,” she said.
Both parties were hijacked, hence the reason for a third party, too bad the deep pockets that fund the PACs won’t have it. Without money and truckloads of it there is no chance for any kind of centrist 3rd party. You are either full on left or right or you are on the sidelines. Less than a year to go now too..
“My wife’s is supposed to report if a kids is showing signs of suicide or any other harmful issues. To out a kid that is afraid to tell there parents is worse.”
Uhhhmm…No.
Until and unless your wife births my kid, raises him through every illness and injury, feeds them, clothes them, entertains them, enrolls and supports them in every out-of-school endeavor, supports them emotionally 24/7, vacations them, pays for all the above, and then commits to pay for their post-secondary education she can…fuck off.
Good teachers, when they align with my community and family standards, can be so much more than simple educators. I’ve had many, personally and with my children. And I am very thankful for them.
When they don’t align with those standards they are subcontractors for the teaching of basic educational skills. No more.
So tell your wife to leave her incredibly self centered savior complex at home because the decision about MY kid is mine, not hers.
Mind bending arrogance.
I hear ya Juice. The best thing we can hope for is split as evenly down the middle as there can be. Our government always does the best when it does the least. Remember, the electoral college also makes it impossible for an independent to go anywhere.
I know it blows the minds of many of you here, but I am a registered Republican.
“I know it blows the minds of many of you here, but I am a registered Republican.”
NJ Republican, which is center-left in the rest of the country….
On the new housing front I listened to a publicly traded building quarterly conference call. They said the number of people paying cash has doubled since rates went up. Didn’t mention if that meant it went from 1 buyer to 2, or if was a meaningful percentage like going 5% to 10%. I suspect the cash buyers are relocating from the West Coast and northeast. They also said they’re getting calls from land developers and other builders looking to sell as rates went up and think the higher rates will lead to some great land deals for them
That’s exactly how the homebuilders do it HMB. In housing slowdowns, they buy land. When demand, or ability to profit increases, they build. They never sell land.
Was the stockwatcher for MDC for a decade and read every 10Q.
Close with a Trump. Last witness in an already decided case!
https://youtube.com/shorts/XiNogXsJ_Ps?si=RMTgme5X0O3EvAFj
Sorry left, those were my words. Very disappointed in you statement about my wife,
Teachers don’t contact the kids parents about these issues. This more so seems like an administrative/counselor/psychologist responsibility. At the very least, teachers refer kids to the proper people in the building who then relay that info. What teachers shouldn’t do is conspire to keep secrets. Neither should anyone in the building.
Lib
This was GRBK. It’s one of the small caps I bought this year lower than it’s currently at.
I asked bard who would win a 100 meter dash between Charlie munger and Warren buffet. It picked buffet due to his height and being younger. lol.
Btw, keeping a secret on this one issue opens up the floodgates to a number of other issues that the schools to withhold info on. Substance abuse, assaults, mental illness? Where you we draw the line. Kids belong to their parents until they are age 18.
From apathy to dependence – Increasing numbers of people lack the virtues and zeal necessary to work and contribute. The suffering and the sacrifices that built the culture are now a distant memory. As discipline and work increasingly seem “too hard,” dependence grows. The collective culture now tips in the direction of dependence. Suffering of any sort seems intolerable. But virtue is not seen as the solution. Having lived on the sacrifices of others for years, the civilization now insists that “others” must solve their woes. This ushers in growing demands for governmental, collective solutions. This in turns deepens dependence, as solutions move from personal virtue and local, family-based sacrifices to centralized ones.
“What is, the modern democrat party?”
“Correct! Pick again.”
Back when I was in high school, you got in trouble for peeking into the wrong bathroom, let alone going inside. The principal’s office would definitely give parents a call. Same for smoking in the bathroom.
Can students also block report cards from being sent to parents now? After all, repercussions of bad grades are also stressful to “mental health”.
Has the increased number of mental health counselors in US schools been followed by a decrease in mental health disorders and suicides? Or the opposite?
There used to be a saying popular in the 80s- “get a grip”. Is that now considered hate speech?
What percentage of kids these days are going to school on brain medication? Are they better off?
Major conservative politicians come across as dumb and religious, or dumb and mean.
Ayn Rand pointed out that it was conservatives who have no long term intellectual future..
https://courses.aynrand.org/works/conservatism-an-obituary/
(Wow, imagine that the essay above was originally delivered at Princeton University in 1960. When people listened to intellectual debate on campus. Hard to imagine now)
By now, most have explicitly disavowed capitalism and individual liberty. The WSJ Republicans are the best remnants, maybe because they are focused more on economic rather than social issues, but will likely fade away in the coming decade.
Teachers do this. This one is a hottie.
Female Maryland middle school teacher Melissa Curtis, 31, is accused of ‘engaging in sex acts’ with underage student nearly a decade ago – and cops warn she could have more victims
Melissa Curtis allegedly had sex with a boy at her Montgomery County school more than 20 times when she was 22 and he was 14
The children are products of years and years of adult behavior.
You created this, it’s what you get.
Gotta love your credit cards.
Walmart had a good sale today. I ordered something that later went out of stock, a gift for someone else.
My credit card flagged it as potential fraud, so Walmart cancelled the order.
Each one blames each other for the problem.
What does my government do to protect my rights from either of these pathologic corporations? Nothing of course. They are in bed with all of them.
Europe has somewhat decent consumer protection laws. US has nothing. Reminds me of this:
https://youtu.be/4BtzaYpivFM?t=207
Look at UHAL, Lib
Kids belong to their parents until they are age 18.
Oh no. They can easily be taken from you.
You are not in a free country. Maybe one day you will figure that out.
There was a guy who dispatched a judge because his kids were taken from him with the stroke of a pen.
A teacher called the PoPo on one of my co-workers because of a joke her kid said.
Watch videos on this, plenty on You Tube.
Freedom is a fallacy.
Daryl knows: https://youtu.be/MJsloJmMbis?si=4h8kkqj2DKnpWzDE
“Very disappointed in you statement about my wife…”
Sorry you feel that way. Nothing personal.
Typical teacher will spend maybe 120 hours a year with my child, in a group setting of 25 or so other children. An Administrator, to BRT’s point, will have maximum of maybe four hours, if that.
The vast majority of my child’s remaining *8,640 hours of the year* is spent with his family.
The concept that some third party entirely unfamiliar to me and my family who spends that little time with my child is qualified to render an opinion on his family or family life is beyond comprehension.
I have run the logic from many angles and can find no other explanation for that feeling of entitlement than a level of arrogance and self-centeredness to defy description.
The blind spot of a person to come to that conclusion is not only beyond comprehension, but is morally and ethically repugnant and should be punishable, severely, by law.
Who the fuck does she think she is to judge the propriety of my family for my child having absolutely zero first person familiarity with my family and such a low level of interaction with the child?
Disgusting.
U-Haul.
They are just an awful, awful company that has excellent margins when people actually move. That’s the whole story. Right now, people ain’t moving, nor will the stock price go up again until people do. As a long-term hold, yes it’s cheap. But it could go cheaper. Oh what a ripoff that company is. Go into one of them and look at the prices. You should see what they charge for boxes!!!
Speaking of academics gone wild:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12726733/College-professor-Loay-Alnaji-Palestinian-killed-Jewish-protestor-Paul-Kessler.html
“Typical teacher will spend maybe 120 hours a year with my child, in a group setting of 25 or so other children. An Administrator, to BRT’s point, will have maximum of maybe four hours, if that.”
A judge has even less.
“The blind spot of a person to come to that conclusion is not only beyond comprehension, but is morally and ethically repugnant and should be punishable, severely, by law.
Who the fuck does she think she is to judge the propriety of my family for my child having absolutely zero first person familiarity with my family and such a low level of interaction with the child?
Disgusting.”
Family court decisions are made with way less time. Add to that a lying spouse you have almost no accurate data to decide with. Yet every single day life altering decisions are being made at the courtroom level by those unqualified to do so.
The crazy NRA party, who is ok with 3600 children killed by guns, does not get to tell us that transgender kid policy is the biggest issue we face.
LOL…Lib, the reasons you list as negatives is why I like them…
No one moving so it’s cheap from a valuation perspective and essentially a play on the inevitable housing rebound from the bottom, as opposed to builders, suppliers, and others that are more fully valued.
Yup, crazy margins on common stuff…sucks if you’re using them but great for the company. You just hook the trailer up and realize you don’t have moving blankets and boxes, whatcha going to do? Take the time, gas, and effort to go to HD or bang the $12 for each item on the credit card? Captive, needy audience for overpriced shit.
I like that they are the cheapest alternative for moving (some recession protection)…plus they are market leaders with established competition and few new threats. Haven’t heard from any of Musk, Bezos, or Brin about researching fleets of autonomous moving vehicles…
Don’t have my screen open but IIRC support around 50, one thing I don’t like there is if she breaches is after that there is air until around 38 which is also an unfilled gap…but from long ago.
Part of my effort to find reasonably valued, established midcaps at or near established support.
As with yesterday, still need to pull up forecasts, filings, etc.
“Family court decisions are made with way less time…Yet every single day life altering decisions are being made at the courtroom level by those unqualified to do so.”
Been there, done that.
Which aside from my usual core beliefs is why I feel particularly strong about yet another housewife with minimal qualification under the guise of the State stepping into MY household.
ByS, has nothing to do with ‘transgender child policy’, whatever the hell that means…has everything to do with who believes they can step into my living room between my child and his family.
Someone like a teacher or Administrator thinks they’re doing that, they better be thankful and not critical of the NRA because unless they are armed they are not getting out of that situation with me in one piece.
[Rhetorically speaking of course, nothing in this or any post should be construed as condoning or promoting violence in any manner]
By, I would suggest you take notice, because liberal parents seem to be just as concerned about this stuff. I’ve had 4 or 5 left leaning friends inquire to me about these things.
Left again, you have no idea how much time my wife puts into teaching her kids, starting new programs, working with parent’s, and is not into politics. She doe not teach in our district. Problem with our BOE election was it was only about 2 topics and not the actual education. Blocking books and gender in schools, not a top priority for my kids education. I really hoped it was going to be a split so neither side had complete control.
Trick,
on one hand it is overblown in many ways. But that being said, all of this social justice, activism, “anti-racist” nonsense being pushed on the kids at the elementary and middle school levels is coming at a price. That price is instructional time and substandard performance on reading/writing/math. Schools are there to lay an educational foundation. They need to stop with all the nonsense. These kids are too young to understand these ideas and issues in the first place.
Phoenix
Do you ever watch this guys channel?
https://youtu.be/DJBykvzNoME?si=aJH_eqMJgmbdOg0q
BRT, agree. If you know my town our middle school had it come on NY news.
Trick, hope your wife enjoys the short break. I’m going to sleep for 2 days straight
I just read the Ginko report. Same old bullshit. Burning through cash, mostly due to stock based compensation. Not only is there no improvement in cash burn, but there is no discussion of break-even. Not a single mention of it. It’s all AI, bio security, potential this and that. Whatever the flavor of the month is. Nothing with any substance and nearly all completely devoid of material content. Pumps, you better not have more than 5% of your net worth in them. They look like they exist to pay themselves and nothing else. I hate Tesla. They are no Tesla. They are way, way, way worse.
Schools teach you about Mesopotamia. And Pyramids.
What they don’t teach you is do you have to let a police officer into your house.
You know, something that is actually useful. You go through life without even understanding your basic rights of a system that you are surrounded by.
I’d classify that as social justice. But that isn’t the social justice they teach.
And right now you have a “racist” war going on. Guess you think that isn’t important either.
The current system is just designed to make the next group of children beholden to the capitalistic slaughterhouse you are preparing to send them to.
BRT says:
November 8, 2023 at 8:10 pm
Trick,
on one hand it is overblown in many ways. But that being said, all of this social justice, activism, “anti-racist” nonsense being pushed on the kids at the elementary and middle school levels is coming at a price. That price is instructional time and substandard performance on reading/writing/math. Schools are there to lay an educational foundation. They need to stop with all the nonsense. These kids are too young to understand these ideas and issues in the first place.
HMB,
Nope, never saw that guy. But he sure has those women pegged.
I see them crying where I work about how hard it is. I am over twice the age of some of them. They don’t even have a bad knee or arthritis yet. Feminism sold them a bill of goods- they all want to marry for money. I hear it. Every. Single. Day.
They need to find someone to say I do. Or have Chewy deliver cat food for the next 30 years.
We do have some women that are real troopers. The whole package. Thrive on the work.
But they are the exception. They really stand out. I am impressed by those. But even they are becoming disillusioned by the system and the fact it’s near impossible to climb thanks to Boomer’s Greed.
BTW have you seen Netflix Bill Burr movie Old Dads? It’s a hoot.
Hear, Hear.
Which aside from my usual core beliefs is why I feel particularly strong about yet another housewife with minimal qualification under the guise of the State stepping into MY household.
ByS, has nothing to do with ‘transgender child policy’, whatever the hell that means…has everything to do with who believes they can step into my living room between my child and his family.
Someone like a teacher or Administrator thinks they’re doing that, they better be thankful and not critical of the NRA because unless they are armed they are not getting out of that situation with me in one piece.
[Rhetorically speaking of course, nothing in this or any post should be construed as condoning or promoting violence in any manner]
Beer – “Do you ever watch this guys channel?”. That’s nothing just watch an episode of real housewives.
I know of several older men who are now going thru divorce now. Their kids are about to enter college etc and wife wants out. These are good men as far as I know, good providers, never cheated, not a drunk or druggie etc, and good earners etc. The dirty tricks Phoenix talks about starts during this process too.
I would say young women are going to be very very sadly disappointed, marriage may even disappear altogether.
Juice and Phoenix
His videos remind me of those Russian car crash videos. I know I shouldn’t watch and laugh but I can’t stop.
Left,
Of course, I think you should have as little intervention from govt and admins as possible. You are an analytics guy. Tell me the chances that you will be put in the situation where school admin will come your house, supporting your trans kid? There are much bigger issues. I don’t think this is a reason that kids are not getting educated in schools. As someone with special needs child, it is amazing to see the amount of kids that require IEP. It is not just autism, Downs, ADHD etc..if they have dyslexia then get IEP. Once you have IEP then schools are obligated to hire staff to maintain it – documentation, communication, provide training and therapy resources. I think this has grown exponentially within society over last 20 years and schools have been slow to respond. They don’t budget for overwhelming need and no idea how many could enter district. Ours is considered good so people move into it. I count 2 this year with special needs kids in my 9 year olds class. The principal has to be on parent PPT meetings. You need BCBA overseeing the goals/objectives. Multiple para-teachers in rooms. I can assure you that it takes most of the school resources to keep up with this demand and they still do horrible job. Our school can’t keep paras and therapists bc they get paid shite. Teachers taking 23 kids with no help, 4-5 special needs. Good luck getting alot for kids out of that system. Our neighbor is teacher in another apparently upper class district and she complains that no paras and no BCBA as can’t hire them. That is a major issue for most school districts. It sounds ridiculous given property taxes already but this is huge expense. I am amazed at number of people who have IEPs. It is basically everyone now. It is one of those quiet issues because of the legalities. They will never say that can’t support population. It is papered over, move along..pretend, until a parent gets fed-up with bullshit and sues.
By, I’d say in my experience, 50 to 75% of the kids with IEPs have no need for them, and lot of them don’t even use them. Many parents go through the hoops because they want to get their kids 50% extended time on tests thinking it gives them an advantage, and it does. A lot of them game the system, wait until the next day or two to use their extra time. I had one kid who would leave the test blank, go home, get a tutor because he memorized all the questions, and come back and magically have all the right answers in the next 30 minutes. Technically it’s illegal to give them the test in parts and they know it. Other kids, even though they are afforded it, choose not to use it because they know they don’t need it.
Now, obviously, there are some kids that legitimately need it. One of my best students was nearly completely blind but her vision was restricted to a penny sized hole. I’d print the tests out on large paper and she would hold it up to her face to read. But here, our VP actually took a huge stand and fought a lot of this because it does waste the resources of the school. As a result, we are currently in a position where just about every kid that has one is warranted. In every single school, the special ed department is the largest department. When I was at Basking Ridge, those special ed teachers worked their butts off in the classroom and they could dump 24 in the class without affecting the learning. Elsewhere, not so much. Their classes are 10 kids with 3 adults in the room. They view more people in the classroom as a way to split up while doing the minimal amount of work. The kids won’t complain.
btw, I can’t remember if it’s IEP or 504 but if your kid qualifies for one, the town has to bus your kid to school, even in preschool. Our rich neighbors did it just so they didn’t have to drive them to preschool in the morning. Although, that being said, watching the guy burn pressure treated wood in his firepit and watching the kids roast smores over it, it might be warranted.
BRT,
You hit the nail on the head and it is one my points. Honestly, I know several parents who could handle their child’s “learning disabilities” by simply being more on top of it and doing some private sessions. It is become a ‘feel good’ parenting alternative. The school will handle it and they tell me ‘doing fine’. The bar is too low. It takes away from precious resources and makes it harder for teachers to do work with typical kids. I know my sons’s teacher has multiple kids, multiple IEPs to support, multiple PPTs and we request alot of data. We don’t get it of course but they placate. I think the teachers want to help but too many masters and too many parents to please at once.
“I’d say in my experience, 50 to 75% of the kids with IEPs have no need for them”
He added: “They are doctors, they are lawyers, they are accountants, they are elected officials, they are executives of high tech companies and pharmaceutical companies, they are military officers, government contractors, professors, scientists. They are the men who fuel this commercial sex ring.”
So the addicts are the problem (fuel), not the dope dealers (the women).