Least affordable … ever?

From Black Knight:

From the NAHB:

Rising Mortgage Rates Push Housing Affordability to Lowest Level in Index History

Rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited existing inventory helped push housing affordability in the third quarter of 2023 to its lowest level in more than a decade.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), just 37.4% of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $96,300. This is down from 40.5% posted in the second quarter of this year, and the lowest reading since NAHB began tracking affordability on a consistent basis in 2012.

“Steadily rising interest rates since the beginning of the year are taking a toll on housing affordability by raising housing costs for buyers and increasing the cost of development and construction loans for builders,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “And with mortgage rates currently near 8%, our builder surveys indicate that market conditions will remain challenging through the end of the year, even as the Federal Reserve appears to be done raising interest rates.”

“Rising mortgage rates have clearly been the key cause of declining housing affordability conditions and shelter costs have been the main driver of inflation,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And with shelter cost increases driven by a lack of affordable supply and increasing development costs, the best way to tackle America’s growing housing affordability challenges is to enact policies that will allow builders to increase the housing supply.”

The HOI shows that the national median home price held steady at $388,000 in the third quarter, unchanged from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, average mortgage rates jumped from 6.59% in the second quarter up to 7.13% in the third quarter—the highest rate in the HOI series history.

This entry was posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

73 Responses to Least affordable … ever?

  1. Hold my beer says:

    First

  2. Chicago says:

    “The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

    Albert Einstein

  3. Phoenix says:

    Leave it to Americans, their lawyers, their legal systems, and their dopey politicians to create a system like this. F’n place is chock full of grifters and theives.

    They roam Florida parking lots and carwashes in search of cars with damaged windshields, often bearing gifts; gift cards, steak dinners and discounted hot tubs are the common ones.

    Insurance companies call them “harvesters,” and their sales pitch to car owners is simple: Auto glass shops can offer free windshield replacements because it’s covered by comprehensive insurance. All they need is a signature.

    But after the signature is collected and the repair is made, the glass shops send exorbitant bills to insurers, who often deny or pay out a lesser amount for the claim. Lawyers then sue the insurance company for payment and the cost of legal fees, often settling hundreds of lawsuits at a time for a hefty sum.

    It’s all part of a network of out-of-state companies and lawyers that have carved out an entire industry based on these glass replacements — so costly to insurance companies that it has caused rates to skyrocket across the state, consumer advocates say.

    The tactic is common only in Florida, where more than 46,000 auto glass lawsuits have been filed so far in 2023, according to data from the state’s Department of Financial Services.

  4. Hold my beer says:

    Phoenix

    I think manospheres explanations are more valid.

  5. LAX says:

    Despite losing the 2020 election, former President Donald Trump came to believe a fringe conspiracy theory that he could be reinstated long after leaving office and before the next election, a new book by ABC’s “This Week” co-anchor Jonathan Karl reveals.

    Trump has long publicly aired his grievances over the last presidential election, frequently repeating false claims that it was “stolen.” But as Karl reports in his new book, “Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party,” Trump became fixated on a far-right theory that he could actually replace President Joe Biden.

    The idea was not based in law and was clearly unconstitutional, but it was supported by some of Trump’s most devout followers, MyPillow CEO Michael Lindell chief among them.

  6. Fabius Maximus says:

    While the GOP are waiting for the Rapture, Peggy Noonan is waiting for the resurrection of Saint Ronnie.

    I do wish she would just hang it up and retire.

  7. Phoenix says:

    Pennsylvania School guidance counselor, Kelly Schutte, is charged with repeatedly raping boy, 14, in car outside SUPERMARKET and in ‘victim’s’ bed
    Kelly Ann Schutte was slapped with several charges pertaining to an alleged sexual relationship she had with a student
    The relationship is believed to have begun in the fall of 2022 following a field trip
    The minor’s mother informed authorities about the relationship when she found our her son had been kissed and touched inappropriately by the counselor

  8. Fast Eddie says:

    The payment to income ratios are amusing. Credit Card debt is rising exponentially now as the masses try to maintain the façade. But alas, weed dispensaries have joined discount alcohol warehouses to forget the misery. Muffin Muppet needs that house with that address and nothing will stop her! Pottersville has arrived!

  9. Hold my beer says:

    Fast
    Just wait until the left in the north bans fossil fuels for heating homes. People will be freezing and debt serfs.

  10. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix from yesterday the NY Times article on dating.

    Yes natural selection at work, with no predators to thin the herd those who reproduce the most are rewarded, the educated and intelligent the delay reproduction and freezes their eggs become well an endangered species.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA&t=36s

  11. 3b says:

    There are still articles out there about people still having Covid money, while other articles say it is long gone. So which is it, do they have it, or is it gone, or is it just being used to support a position. I would say for most people who got Covid money, it’s long gone.

  12. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    On Main Street, it’s time to prepare for the new state minimum wage hikes in 2024

    More wage hikes are coming across U.S. states in 2024 and many Main Street businesses may feel the pinch.

    Not only are wages generally up from year-ago figures given the hot labor market, but minimum wage rates are rising in many states as a result of new laws. These can be a double-whammy to small businesses already dealing with inflationary pressures. At the same time, businesses know they need to pay more to attract top talent.

    “It’s a very precarious situation that small businesses find themselves in,” said Steve Hall, vice president of economic development lending at the Local Initiatives Support Corporation, a community development financial institution.

    Beginning on April 1, 2024, California’s minimum wage for the state’s 500,000 fast-food workers will increase to $20 per hour. By comparison, the average hourly wage for fast-food workers in 2022 was $16.21, according to a state release announcing the change, which cites a 2022 research brief from The Shift Project think tank.

    Some states have set the bar significantly higher than the federal rate, and in many cases, levels are slated to rise in 2024 and beyond. Hawaii, for example, is set to raise its minimum wage to $14 in January, up 16.7% from the current $12 rate. Last year, the state set a plan for its minimum wage through 2028 when it will be $18 per hour. The state hiked its rate in 2022 for the first time since 2018 when the minimum wage rate was set at $10.10 per hour.

    Nebraska’s rate is also going up in 2024 to $12 from $10.50, a 14.3% jump.

    Maryland’s rate, for companies with 15 or more employees, will increase to $15 from $13.25, a 13% jump.

    Delaware’s minimum wage is rising to $13.25 in 2024, up from its current level of $11.75, a 12.8% jump.

  13. grim says:

    NJ goes to $15.13 on Jan 1, 2024, a 7.1% increase.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    NJ goes to $15.13 on Jan 1, 2024, a 7.1% increase.

    Who needs a house out in Hackensack
    Is that what you get for your money?

  15. BRT says:

    I’d like to see what a lot of people’s monthly budget looks like now that they have to resume loan payments. I’m sure life was a lot different for them when they aren’t paying $1k a month.

  16. Very Stable Genius says:

    GOP controlled south is affordable but NJ rightwingers will never move there. Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, etc, lack the comfort and high quality of life that the progressive, liberal Northeast offers to NJ rightwingers.

  17. leftwing says:

    “NJ rightwingers”

    Please show me the dodo bird you’ve found.

  18. Phoenix says:

    Just called to check on one of my policies I have with TIAA.

    Their computers are down. I asked “when will they be up?” Answer ” I don’t know, we just can’t access them.”

    Then I asked ” Is it a hacking/ransom thing.” Answer ” We were not told anything.”

    Then I asked ” How long have they been down.” Answer ” about a week.”

    Seems like a long time to me.

  19. Phoenix says:

    grim says:
    November 13, 2023 at 8:19 am
    NJ goes to $15.13 on Jan 1, 2024, a 7.1% increase.

    Doesn’t even keep up with inflation.

  20. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,

    Houses in Hackensack can be quite valuable.

    If you bought one at Boomer prices that is.

  21. BRT says:

    lol, so is it only NJ left wingers moving out?

  22. Hold my beer says:

    Chipotle is testing robots to fry chips and make bowls.

  23. BRT says:

    I can’t understand how Starbucks isn’t testing robots, at least for a large part of it. 15 years ago, my friend programmed a bar at his house to make any drink you want. It took him 2 weeks of his spare time. Every single one of those drinks are filled to lines on a cup.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    I can’t understand how Starbucks isn’t testing robots…

    They already have robots. It’s the button-pushing, s0cialist, progressive, liberal, neutered muppets serving the successful, hard-working rightwingers.

  25. grim says:

    I can’t understand how Starbucks isn’t testing robots, at least for a large part of it.

    They already do… They use automatic espresso machines, including the grind. They’ve already automated the core part of being a ‘barista’. Load beans up top and press the button. Steaming milk just the same. Food warming ovens? Same, you press the button with the food item name on it, that’s all.

    Automating the drinks – A bunch of peristaltic pumps and hoses are all you need to pump the right flavors and amounts into any single cup. Vitamix and others are already doing this with blenders in smoothy shops, they dispense the flavors in almost the same way as the paint color machine does at Home Depot.

    Even more substantial, something like 60% of Starbucks customers order and pay using the mobile app. While not automation, they’ve certainly outsourced a huge portion of the work that would have been done at the retail location. One less register, one less person sitting at the register. Outsourcing at zero cost beats automation, every time….

  26. 1987 Condo says:

    Cruise ships have robotic bartenders:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaRPrL88o34

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    One less register, one less person sitting at the register.

    Damn, capitalist pigs! Mankind should be their business! Their welfare should be their business! How dare the banish the meager muppets to the workhouses!

  28. BRT says:

    Grim, good to know. Probably didn’t realize it because it’s been a while since I’ve been inside one.

  29. leftwing says:

    “lol, so is it only NJ left wingers moving out…”

    Of course, same with CA, WA, NY, MA and other liberal bastions…once they’ve destroyed the quality of life in their home States with inept government edicts for unattainable progressive idealisms like ‘fairness’ in housing, education, and criminal justice that turned their once appealing States into liberal hellholes for the middle class, like the swarm of mindless locusts they are they take flight from the devastation they caused to new fertile areas yet unaffected by their scourge.

    Saw a window sticker recently that made me smile…”Don’t NY my Florida”

  30. LAX says:

    10:09 rubbish

  31. grim says:

    That’s because it’s different here daaahhhhling.

    From CNBC:

    Northern Cities Where Americans Fled During the Pandemic Are Now Hot for Home Seekers

    Chilly and expensive northern cities—the same ones that homeowners were fleeing in droves during the pandemic—are seeing interest in their luxury real estate markets grow more than anywhere else across the U.S., according to data supplied to Mansion Global from Realtor.com.

    Connecticut’s Bridgeport metropolitan area; greater New York City; and the wider Chicago region, were the only three luxury markets in the country where page views for online luxury property listings increased year over year during the third quarter, the data showed.

    Over the same time, high-end house housing supply in each of these areas fell by more than 10% and prices jumped by double digits.

    “You know, it’s like everyone’s peeking behind the curtain to see what the big cities are up to. But it’s not just window shopping; there is also real demand,” said New York City-based Tate Kelly of Coldwell Banker Warburg.

    “There is enduring value of real estate in established markets for preserving and growing wealth,” Kelly said. “In times of economic uncertainty, these cities act as stable financial anchors, making them attractive for those looking to safeguard their wealth.”

  32. grim says:

    Oozing exclusivity:

    The appeal of living in New York City and the tri-state area, “is truly timeless and enduring across all kinds of markets and global events,” said Kate Wollman-Mahan, also of Coldwell Banker Warburg. “Even when given the choice to work remotely, many people still choose to live in New York City.”

  33. No One says:

    I watched a Veteran’s Day parade in downtown Sarasota FL Saturday. Nice to see many marching bands, students from charter schools formed around ROTC marching together, a number of WW2 and Vietnam vets in cars and trucks. American flags. Shriners on Harleys. Lots of clapping and cheering for the vets. No floats with “LGBTQ+ for Palestine” in sight.

  34. leftwing says:

    Don’t DUMBO my Sarasota….

  35. Fast Eddie says:

    Don’t BEFOUL my Bergen County!

  36. No One says:

    left,
    Sarasota has been falling down the rankings of “best place to live” or retire over the past couple of years because the housing prices have been rising.
    In general, the young and middle aged people and workers are locals, the people in the fancy waterfront condos and houses are wealthy retiree transplants.
    I hear that a lot of the construction people doing the work are droving from North Port or further south.

  37. Phoenix says:

    Takes more than 5 years for America to replace a crumbling bridge in NJ.

    The News Network reported that the Chinese government outlined its intention to install 100 gigawatts of renewable energy — particularly solar and wind in the desert regions — by 2026 in its recent Five-Year Plan.

    This project is the first phase, which reportedly has an installed capacity of 1 million kilowatts and is expected to generate 1.8 billion kilowatt-hours annually. For reference, that equals the power needed to run 1.5 million households.
    The project is also China’s first ultrahigh-voltage power transmission channel and is transmitting clean power to the Hunan province, an area that is home to over 66 million people.

  38. Libturd says:

    Build a bridge? How about replace the median?

  39. leftwing says:

    “…once [liberals] destroyed the quality of life in their home States with inept government edicts for unattainable progressive idealisms like ‘fairness’ in housing, education, and criminal justice….LAX says: rubbish”

    COAH/Mt Laurel
    Abbott Districts
    No bail felony release

    Just another day in Paradise lol.

    Maybe the new educational palace in Jersey City will give, rather than rent, your suburban kids some court time.

  40. Phoenix says:

    Well, they do have a point……

    “A Chinese state newspaper has mocked American media and politicians’ talk of the U.S. helping China with favorable trade deals, saying that Washington has played no role in the economic rise of the country. If anything, American workers should learn from their Chinese counterparts to work harder.”

  41. LAX says:

    I like how they launch a big cleanup in SF not for the folks that’s living there….but for a visiting communist leader.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    I like how they launch a big cleanup in SF not for the folks that’s living there….but for a visiting communist leader.

    San Francisco is run by Marxist sympathizers so it’s only fitting they honor their own.

  43. LAX says:

    I dunno bro. It’s just too damn stupid for words.
    BTW you know Ivanka has beaucoup parents in China.

  44. LAX says:

    “Patents”…,in China kinda would make her sympathetic ?

  45. LAX says:

    Btw 3rd week off and I’m not hating it.

  46. Boomer Remover says:

    Reddit drew my attention to Lancaster, PA (the city of). Does anyone know who powers the local economy? Seems like a very walk-able downtown, food markets, whole paycheck, nicely finished brick colonials and mix of new condos.

  47. 3b says:

    Boomer: We drove through city of Lancaster late 90’s on the way to Amish country, and at that time it looked like it was in major decline. There were bars on every corner, and it looked like a little ghetto in places. It was not what one might have suspected. Once through the city, then it opened up into the countryside, and into Amish country.

  48. 3b says:

    Some say soft landing next year, others say hard landing, the new buzz taking hold is no landing, as in the economy continues on the same as now.

    UBS on the other hand sees Fed’s slashing rates 275 bp’s next year.

  49. LAX says:

    1:30 went there to meet some fellas re: bidness once. Gorgeous old bank.
    It’s Amish money. Agriculture. Old families.

  50. Very Stable Genius says:

    Of course. Most people here are rightwingers and they will never, ever move to Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma!

    Lol

    grim says:
    November 13, 2023 at 10:32 am
    Oozing exclusivity:

    The appeal of living in New York City and the tri-state area, “is truly timeless and enduring across all kinds of markets and global events,” said Kate Wollman-Mahan, also of Coldwell Banker Warburg. “Even when given the choice to work remotely, many people still choose to live in New York City.”

  51. BRT says:

    Phoenix, one of my coworkers is from China. He said, to repair a bridge in China, even a major one, takes 1 day. They do things in a week that we would take 2 years to do. NJ is the worst. When I started working as a teacher, everyone was like “oh that 206 bypass should help you out when it’s done”. That was 15 years ago…and the project was something like 30 years old at the time. The current contractor walked off the job and it’s just sitting around crumbling for the umpteenth time. This isn’t even a complex project. It’s 2-3 miles of road….that’s it. I’ll be retired before this thing ever finishes.

  52. BRT says:

    I’d go closer to King of Prussia. Much nicer.

  53. LAX says:

    This: https://youtu.be/MuiLuYyjZz4?si=oZmKb4JOqRyRasuf

    Absolutely gorgeous Chris Robinson song

  54. Phoenix says:

    BRT,

    This has nothing to do with the actual workers as much as it does with the government, the nepotism, and the grift.

    I watched an incredible video on China. It’s like they have no red tape. America is full of overpaid useless managers and leaders who are totally detached from the projects they are in control of. It’s a crumbling empire like a rusted Chevy that someone keeps putting bondo on and dropping it off to Earl Shieb for a 99 dollar paint job (now a 2000 dollar paint job w/inflation)

    BRT says:
    November 13, 2023 at 1:53 pm
    Phoenix, one of my coworkers is from China. He said, to repair a bridge in China, even a major one, takes 1 day. They do things in a week that we would take 2 years to do. NJ is the worst. When I started working as a teacher, everyone was like “oh that 206 bypass should help you out when it’s done”. That was 15 years ago…and the project was something like 30 years old at the time. The current contractor walked off the job and it’s just sitting around crumbling for the umpteenth time. This isn’t even a complex project. It’s 2-3 miles of road….that’s it. I’ll be retired before this thing ever finishes.

  55. BRT says:

    This I know…but in NJ, we take it to an entirely new level. That’s why our roadways cost 10x relative to elsewhere. I drove through Arizona, construction everywhere increasing the lanes to major highways. Tons of infrastructure work actually occurring. These construction firms are run by guys who’s main job is to drag it out to try squeeze all kinds of extra money out of the project.

  56. Very Stable Genius says:

    Y’all created corruption with their incessant call for privatization.

    Eisenhower’s National Highway System was done by the federal government successfully without rightwingers crying for privatization.

    BRT says:
    November 13, 2023 at 1:53 pm
    Phoenix, one of my coworkers is from China. He said, to repair a bridge in China, even a major one, takes 1 day. They do things in a week that we would take 2 years to do. NJ is the worst. When I started working as a teacher, everyone was like “oh that 206 bypass should help you out when it’s done”. That was 15 years ago…and the project was something like 30 years old at the time. The current contractor walked off the job and it’s just sitting around crumbling for the umpteenth time. This isn’t even a complex project. It’s 2-3 miles of road….that’s it. I’ll be retired before this thing ever finishes.

  57. Phoenix says:

    Very Stable Genius says:
    November 13, 2023 at 2:34 pm
    Y’all created corruption with their incessant call for privatization.

    Eisenhower’s National Highway System was done by the federal government successfully without rightwingers crying for privatization.

    Well, I don’t know about the “rightwinger” thing so much, but China seems to get things done from a nationalist position.

    America just gives its middle class tax dollars to anyone who cries enough, begs enough, or lobbies enough.

    Funny how we have so many friends that need money. I have plenty of friends, they don’t ask me all day for money. I don’t ask my friends for money either. I paid for my own f’n divorce with my own cash.

    Everyone is a grifter today. Nope, it’s not the panhandler on the side of the road that is the problem…..

  58. 3b says:

    Phoenix: Yes, there are grifters among us, l have learned that recently. And they are proud grifters. They sleep well at night too.

  59. Boomer Remover says:

    BRT — KoP is a wasteland of suburban sprawl. Though I understand it is closer to well paying jobs. Lancaster downtown looked like a carbon copy of Philly, without the nine circles of hell surrounding it.

  60. No One says:

    China has more publicly traded stocks that operate toll roads than the US. Same for airport operators. And marine terminal operators.
    China used to understand the importance of market incentives in infrastructure investment and operation. Probably less so now than 30 years ago.
    Jiangsu Expressway a publicly listed tollroad operator connecting Shanghai with Nanjing, back around 2003 shut down most of its key expressway for about 18 months during which time they doubled their lanes (I think 4 to 8) on a stretch about 200 miles long. Profits dropped for those couple of years, but came back strong. Paid out a big dividend for a couple of decades since.

  61. BRT says:

    I’m personally a fan of Buck’s Co, Newtown is really nice.

  62. leftwing says:

    Threw on a little hedge through VIX for tomorrow CPI…low cost, high payout as I’m in a good place….I do believe that CPI may favorably surprise….lubricants….cost tumbling, lead indicator.

    Anyway, hedged.

  63. Fast Eddie says:

    Y’all created corruption with their incessant call for privatization.

    Y’all? Where are you from? Brandon, Mississippi?

  64. Libturd says:

    I like Guanacaste.

  65. Libturd says:

    Last,

  66. Phoenix says:

    No, not last.

    You work banker’s hours.

  67. leftwing says:

    Haha, last or first. You pick. Or Both.

  68. Hold my beer says:

    Last last slackers

  69. R3ntL0rd says:

    libturd,

    There is an element of anti-semitism, but you will probably admit that it’s not what the whole issue is about – as Bibi’s government would make you believe. Most of my jewish friends believe the blame is 50/50.

    If you could, take a moment to listen to this smart man:

    https://www.tiktok.com/@newstatesman/video/7291596199805603105

    There is also an element of Islamaphobia going around – but then with almost no moderate muslims standing up, there may just be some validity in it.

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