Return to normal in the spring?

From HousingWire:

What will lower mortgage rates do to spring housing inventory?

Lower mortgage rates tend to take housing supply off the market and demand has been picking up lately as rates have fallen. However, the recent drop in housing inventory has more to do with seasonality factors than lower mortgage rates

Higher mortgage rates did push inventory higher during the seasonal period when it would normally be declining. However, seasonality tends to rule the day eventually. The question now is what will inventory look like in the spring if mortgage rates keep falling?

Now that mortgage rates have fallen from a bit over 8% toward 7.32%, we can see the immediate impact as purchase application data was positive for the third straight week. Last week, it was up 4%, making the year-to-date count 21 positive prints versus 23 negative prints and one flat week.

The rule of thumb is that it’s a material difference if we get 12-14 weeks of a positive trend. Last year, we had three months of a positive data run as rates fell from 7.37% to 5.99%. So for now, three weeks of positive purchase applications is a small but important step in the right direction.

The 10-year yield ended the week roughly flat. Mortgage rates started the week at 7.38% and ended at 7.32%; it was a light holiday trading week, so we shouldn’t make too much of it. Instead, let’s look at the future: If the 10-year yield can break under 4.34% with some kick from bond buyers, we have an excellent shot at getting under 7%. 

As we head toward the end of the year and start the countdown to Christmas, it looks certain that I will not have even one week of the kind of inventory growth I was hoping for when mortgage rates got above 7.25%. I was looking for at least a few weeks of inventory growth between 11,000-17,000, and it has yet to happen — even when mortgage rates got to 8%. 

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10 Responses to Return to normal in the spring?

  1. grim says:

    The size of the gap between the reflectors was changed by twisting the screwdriver…

    Hold my beer…

  2. Hold my beer says:

    First non Grim

  3. Hold my beer says:

    Spent the last 3 days at Sea World and Universal Studios in Orlando.

    Looking at the masses I’m amazed we are a super power
    Also kept wondering if inflation is so high and so many are living paycheck to paycheck how so many people can afford admission to the park and pay $5.49 for a soda. At universal so many people bought the express pass the regular line moved almost the same pace as the fast pass for some of the rides.

    Phoenix would be amazed at the gift shop prices. $13 for a Simpsons key chain. $82 for a hello kitty bag. $25 for a Simpson donut plushie.

  4. Juice Box says:

    Sea World was a good deal. Universal with the massive lines not so much, express passes are almost worthless as you mentioned Beer……I won’t be back last trip was supposed to be 3 years ago but we cancelled due to Covid. My kids have outgrown the place and now want to go to Turks and Caicos.. I have no desire to go there, so we shall see what happens this Spring.

  5. 3b says:

    So mortgage rates have fallen slightly from 8 to 7.32 percent and it’s already a positive. That’s how little it takes? If rates go to 6.32 percent then I guess we will have a frenzy of activity. Party on!

  6. 3b says:

    Hold: Putting it on the credit cards, and living paycheck to paycheck to makes the minimum payments for on the credit cards along with their regular monthly bills.

  7. Phoenix says:

    With mortgage rates soaring and fewer homes for sale, Baby Boomers are dominating the housing market like a real-life game of Monopoly.

  8. SupplyIsIssue SoTryToPinpointDelugeDay says:

    Grim or anyone with a lot of spare time, unstrained eyes and no carpal tunnel. Use your AI or old fashioned tech skills to figure out the following.

    1- Look up in northern NJ zip code of interest around here and rank those towns in age for average/mean age of your locust boomer.
    2-Look up in actuarial life table the point at which death of locust boomers accelerate markedly overall and for those zip codes if available.
    3-Create a 1yr+ out in trimester forecast of available old locust housing coming into market after said zip code hits that threshold turning point as Mr.Grim Reaper moves into an Extended Stay Suite in town.

  9. SupplyIsIssue SoTryToPinpointDelugeDay says:

    Also look for Mode. Mode being the massive supply payday for a specific town.

  10. Chicago says:

    Left: Just saw that the Red pulled an upset on BU. and it was a 3rd period comeback. Cant figure this out, unless it was a slump that they shook. We can hope. Really erratic so far. They were in every game except QPac to some extent.

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