Ohhhhh, Millennials… From the Messenger:
Millennials Say Over $500K Would Buy Them Happiness: Report
Each generation has a different idea of the cost of happiness. For millennials, more than $500,000 annually would be the key.
In a survey conducted by The Harris Poll, 2,034 Americans ages 18 and older were asked about the secrets to financial happiness. Financial services company Empower released the results Monday, which determined the average person believes having $1.2 million is needed to attain financial happiness.
The average person would need a salary of about $284,164 every year to be happy, according to the survey, but the results did vary by generation.
Boomers said they needed the least amount of money, asking for an annual salary of $124,000 and a net worth of $999,945. They were followed by Gen Z, who sought a $128,000 salary and a net worth of $487,711.
Gen X respondents said they wanted a $130,000 salary and a net worth of $1,213,759, per the survey. Millennials said they needed the most, asking for $525,000 annually and a net worth of $1,699,571.
Women reported needing less than half of what men said they would need, asking for an annual salary of $183,000 compared to $381,000 for men.
Some researchers say millennials are not wrong. Nobel Prize recipient Daniel Kahneman co-authored a 2023 study that found that earning up to $500,000 a year can improve a person’s happiness.
But others disagree. Nobel Prize recipient Angus Deaton found in a 2010 studythat happiness can only be improved by money up to a $75,000 salary. After that point, he said that money had little impact on happiness.
This is one crazy ass graph:
https://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/negative.png
Another crazy ass graph:
https://www.dailyrecord.com/story/news/new-jersey/2023/11/28/us-2020-census-nj-population-keeps-shifting-see-where/71598313007/
Keep an eye on Ocean County when you watch it, insane.
Ocean- Retirees, people who moved into their second homes, and the exploding Hasidic population of Lakewood, Brick, Toms River and Jackson.
Can’t wait for prices to fall now that Biden has given corporate America a stern, finger-wagging, talking-to.
Toms River
Our family had a tiny bungalow in Tom’s River in Snug Harbor. Most homes were for summer only and it was a ghost town in the winter. Not so anymore, the tiny homes were all expanded, even before Hurricane Sandy, and those streets are now full of year round families now not just retirees. Western part of town was all undeveloped, but in the late 80s lots of new roads and developments into those woods. I even had a friend who moved down there from up North. The dad was a real estate speculator who had been flipping homes down there. Did quite well until housing crashed. Who knows if and when it will crash again.
Election is around the corner so Biden’s people know he is polling badly on housing.
Biden website states.
Joe Biden will invest $640 billion over 10 years so every American has access to housing that is affordable, stable, safe and healthy..Section 8 vouchers for anyone spending more than 30 % of their income on housing…
Had to stop reading there….. so the cost of housing is too high and we are going to promise the sun moon and stars to get your vote. How about a new mortgage product. No Money down and introducing 3% interest for 10 years….No income verification and no credit checks, all backed by Fannie Mae….
It could happen folks it’s an election year…
Ocean County: I dare you to drive down route 9 from Lakewood to Lacey without blowing your brains out. Do it in under 60 minutes and you either got lucky or drove through a few buildings.
Section 8 vouchers for anyone spending more than 30 % of their income on housing…
I can finagle a few numbers! I’m in! The next ploy is to offer vouchers for s.ex for anyone who vows to vote for joe. That, and the 3,000 mules should secure him a 2nd term.
re: lead story, yeah but not too much more more money……..
” found that earning up to $500,000 a year can improve a person’s happiness.”
I don’t know what they want from me
It’s like the more money we come across
The more problems we see
I don’t know what they want from me
It’s like the more money we come across (yeah, yeah, a-ha)
The more problems we see
Boomers said they needed the least amount of money, asking for an annual salary of $124,000…
Millennials want more than $500,000… greedy little, glass-touching bastards!
Juice; No housing bust , and no recessions ever. That’s all a thing of the past. It’s a new Dawn.
On the incomes needed to attain happiness I was going to comment that it kind of makes sense relative to where each segment is in their respective lives, eg. Boomers ending with most major life expenses behind them, GenZ just starting not even really understanding yet what is ahead of them…until I got to this gem…
“Women reported needing less than half of what men said they would need, asking for an annual salary of $183,000 compared to $381,000 for men.”
Nice charts grim. I’m going back and overlaying SPX on the Ritholtz.
On the NJ migration interactive watch Middlesex too.
” Fast Eddie says:
November 28, 2023 at 7:37 am
Boomers said they needed the least amount of money, asking for an annual salary of $124,000…
Millennials want more than $500,000… greedy little, glass-touching bastards!
”
Avocado toast and fair trade lattes prepared by undocumented travelers aint cheap.
Nice charts grim. I’m going back and overlaying SPX on the Ritholtz.
The negative earnings chart really calls into question whether companies shifting to negative earnings is even a recessionary indicator anymore. Partially explains some of my own cognitive dissonance around being in recession already.
Or are we firmly in gamblers paradise when it comes to equities?
Back in Texas.
I am going to buy a lottery ticket today. Had an empty seat next to me on the flight back. Flight to Florida had a teenager under 200 pounds sitting next to me with a born in Texas dad on the other side of the teen. Rest of the family was sitting behind me and the kids were well behaved. Miracle.
We stayed at a resort at last second but had to sit through a time share pitch. For only 38k with fees and 10% down and $2,100 a year in maintenance fees I had the right to 14 mid season nights. It was $720 a month plus the maintenance fees for 10 years. They claimed the room has a $600 value per night. I checked the web site and even with taxes and fees the room under $250 a night over christmas and spring break. Bonus the interest rate was 21.89%. LOL. We could book 12 mid season nights or 8 high season nights at same resort for the maintenance fee alone. And yet people were pulling out their credit cards and signing up.
Also had good airport food. Had a pork cuban bowl at the Orlando airport.
Phoenix
I thought of you on the flight back. There was a painfully dumb woman sitting a few rows behind me yacking away. She was a nurse. Scary.
I put on my airpods and watched videos to tune her out.
“I dare you to drive down route 9 from Lakewood to Lacey without blowing your brains out. Do it in under 60 minutes and you either got lucky or drove through a few buildings.”
I dated a girl in college for three years, who was from Bayville. Used to drive from Lakehurst (her grandmother’s home in Leisure Village) down to Waretown (her best friend’s home) regularly. It took 45 minutes to make that trip back in 1989-1992. I can only imagine how many more lights they have put in along that route. During rush hour, I remember route 9 was bumper to bumper from Tom’s River until past the ShopRite in Bayville. Must be a solid five miles. Needless to say, I know the area from Seaside Heights down to Lacey (including the backwoods) too well. We did a lot of four-wheeling back there for fun. There were huge swaths of undeveloped land in the Pine Barrens. I imagine that is no longer the case.
Large Ransomware gang arrested in surprise surprise Ukraine.
Europol, Secret Service, FBI etc involved.
Their internet was cut. I assume they acquired some donated starlink terminals our DoD is paying for? They managed to hack into quite a few companies, and were paid ransom in bitcoin etc.
Send them to the front lines.
And they want that $500k working at Starbucks 3 days a week.
Lib, looking today at putting together soon my own “dogs of…” for next year especially with some potential tax loss selling that may be upcoming in the market…mostly the YTD underperformers…not GLP1 pharma (JNJ, BMY), a regional bank or two, maybe some one-offs that got punished (CVS, CVX)…
Not particularly familiar with the nuances of tax loss selling…I get the facts, wash sale rule, last day 12/29 due to settlement, etc. But missing strategic timing and decision parameters especially for institutions.
So, anyone with an informed opinion here on:
1. When do institutions start tax loss harvesting
2. What stocks may be more/less vulnerable (specific or profile)
TYIA
“1. When do institutions start tax loss harvesting”
Only institutions which have investments, no?
BREAKING NEWS!
Billionaire-backed Koch network endorses Nikki Haley for president
PUBLISHED TUE, NOV 28 20239:42 AM EST
UPDATED MOMENTS AGO
Would wager a bet that the $500k number is largely being ‘influenced’ by social media influencers on TikTok, YouTube, Meta, etc.
Would also take the side action on many of those influencers not having $500k to their name, let alone an income anywhere near that.
Another good example of the psychological problems being caused by socials and the media more broadly.
Go long antidepressants and mind-altering drugs.
Wait, I thought the current generation was the smartest generation?
On the topic of how much money it takes to be happy, I’d suggest it’s a psychological, moral issue. Which relates to whether one adopts a mindset of greed or of envy. Greed is healthy and productive, envy is not. Greed is focused on one’s own needs and accomplishments, envy is focused on others’.
Here’s an interesting essay written by an economist about greed vs envy, which he ties to asset pricing models, but he writes enough of general interest for it to be worth reading. A snip:
Economists generally think of self-interest as maximizing the present value of one’s consumption, or wealth, independent of others. Wealth can be generalized to include not just their financial assets, but the present value of their labor income and even public goods. Adam Smith emphasized a self-interest that also recognized social position and regard for society as a whole, but this was well before anyone thought of writing down a utility function, which is a mathematically precise formulation of how people define their self-interest.
But what if economists have it all wrong, that self-interest is primarily about status, and only incidentally correlated with wealth? A lot, it turns out.
In a book titled Human Universals, professor of anthropology Donald Brown listed hundreds of human universals in an effort to emphasize the fundamental cognitive commonality between members of the human species. Some of these human universals include incest avoidance, child care, pretend play and many more. A concern for relative status is a human universal, and relative status is a nice way of saying people have envy and desire power [status seeking, benchmarking, all fall under this more sensational description, envy].
The idea that ‘incentives matter’, and that people generally act in their material self-interest, is a powerful assumption. Alternative conceptions of human action, such as that people care mainly about their community, country, or God, are considerably more convoluted in explaining, say, why stock prices are uncorrelated from one day to the next.
However, there are many anomalies to this assumption, and my big idea in this article is the standard conception of self-interest is not cynical enough: envy can explain most of what greed can, plus more. For example, a nonobvious implication of a standard formulation of self-interest–that our happiness increases in wealth, but at a decreasing rate–is a necessary and sufficient condition that a ‘risk premium’ must accompany risky assets. This was developed in the 1950s and 1960s into Modern Portfolio Theory and is a mainstay of business school curricula. Yet the data supporting this seemingly intuitive theory (‘higher risk–correctly defined–implies higher expected return’), is lacking for every asset class you can imagine (stocks, bonds, lotteries, currencies, futures), with only a few conspicuous consistent anecdotes (ie, short-term US Treasuries and AAA bonds have low risk and low returns).
https://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/03/why-envy-dominates-greed.html
“Only institutions which have investments, no?”
?
Unstable,
Who do the leftist billionaires endorse for president?
Who would you prefer for next president: Biden, Harris, Trump, or Haley?
I bet she would win a ranked-choice poll among those four among njrereport posters.
Here’s how I’d rank them from least objectionable to most.
1)Haley (a fairly normal politician with a typical politician’s flaws. Moderate and moderately competent.)
2) Harris (too weak & incompetent to actually do as much damage as she would like)
3) Biden (weak and incompetent, but also almost dead, so an even more inefficient way of getting Harris eventually, and even more embarrassing for the US overall)
4) Trump (divorced from reality, solipsist, inveterate and gleeful liar, with many bad policies pretending to be better ones, routinely turns allies into enemies)
Individuals tax loss harvest as do certain funds/ETFS. Institutions? Only the few that have significant investments (which are few and far between). Never really heard of looking at institutions that tax-loss harvest. Unless I am missing something entirely.
HMB,
Has anyone ever been happy with time shares? I once knew one person who loved being in the Disney Vacation Club thing, which I take is kind of like a time share and looks similarly expensive, but at least seemed to offer some variety, and maybe the Disney properties were quality.
Mostly I hear radio ads about companies promoting their “time share cancellation”.
South Park did an episode on time shares way back:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs_AELflslg
(divorced from reality, solipsist, inveterate and gleeful liar, with many bad policies pretending to be better ones, routinely turns allies into enemies)
This is actually pretty good. When the government tries for a perfect appearance with perfect plans, it means they’re f***ing you without knowing it. When there’s chaos, turmoil, shit hitting the fan, etc., anger turns into action and action produces tangible results. Fake shit like the Flatulence Reduction Act, erasing tuition debt, saving the globe with windmills and unicorns is a con man’s dream. Go with the slightly unhinged guy, he’ll lead the crowd with pitchforks held high. And he certainly won’t let terrorists dictate the narrative.
Leftwing,
Best of the top of my head.
https://www.wealthfront.com/blog/tax-loss-harvesting-101
Mutual funds tax loss harvest in Oct as that is their usual fiscal year end.
ETFs mostly don’t tax loss harvest as they are benchmarked, ie. the SPY ETF is the simply the SPX, there is no active management. Just buy or sell the defined basket of stocks as daily money flows dictate.
The rest of the institutional universe – banks, pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, endowments, family offices, etc – are mostly calendar year end and active managers. May even throw RIAs in there as although the funds are not their money they manage the decisions especially for the class of individuals most likely to harvest and with the greatest amount of assets, ie. can move like institutions.
No One
I know one person who has a Disney vacation club or time share and loves it. They go to Disney a few times a year.
Time shares seem too expensive to me and I don’t want that kind of commitment.
Exactly. The only tax play to take advantage of is to purchase some of the losers Wall Street sold and ride them for an average 10% gain through end of December. It is a simple value play based on the stock moving down too much from large sales of stock by the big guys. One study found 70% of S&P 500 stocks sold averaged a 10% gain. So you still have to find the right one’s.
Everything else you shared is pretty common knowledge so I figured you knew it.
HMB,
My brother owned a Disney Timeshare when his three kids were young enough to still want to go. This was up until about ten years ago. He said it was the ONLY timeshare that made sense as it was truly cheaper than paying a la carte and since Disney properties are in such demand, it was easy to swap weeks with others to go to other places. He said to run from every other timeshare besides Disney. Not sure if this is still the case, but it truly was when he owned his. There was simply a shortage of Disney lodging which keeps them in demand. If that shortage still exists, do the math and see if it makes sense. Make sure you read the fine print about how many holiday weeks you get a year. Kids can’t go unless you are willing to pull them from school otherwise. If you can trade your holiday weeks, the plans are golden.
“Exactly. The only tax play to take advantage of is to purchase some of the losers Wall Street sold and ride them for an average 10% gain through end of December.”
That’s the mutual fund play. I’m looking for the year end play with the other institutions.
Let me know if you find one. Maybe sell off all electric car stocks you might own and buy them back a month later. I’ll be dumping my 2K in FSR shares for sure. Have plenty of gains to pay taxes on this year. Will not be buying back those shares. Ocean is a great looking and well designed car, but not gonna make it to the finish line unfortunately.
Every time we’ve gone to Disney, we just rent a DVC timeshare from one of the many people that treat it as a business. One woman we rent from owns dozens of them.
We get a room for 50% off Disney rates, usually in nicer properties, and almost always with a kitchen (that you don’t get in a normal room). With DVC, there are plenty of third-parties that will deliver grocery orders for your arrival. Usually they are separate buildings on property, and almost always are much quieter, peaceful, less chaos at the pool, etc.
DVC is a unique animal, Disney price controls the resale market excessively. They will exercise their right of first refusal on any deal that is below their price floor (which is not low). You can’t even sell your DVC to a family member for a cheap price, they’ll buy it out from under them. This keeps the market relatively stable, and you do not see DVC prices fall much, even during recessions.
Tax loss harvesting is really only effective if you have already booked gains that the losses can offset. Once your losses exceed your gains, you can only use 3k of the remaining loss to offset other income. After that, any additional remaining losses are carried forward to future years. That is only for federal, NJ doesn’t want to hear about your excess losses.
Sounds like communism.
DVC is a unique animal, Disney price controls the resale market excessively. They will exercise their right of first refusal on any deal that is below their price floor (which is not low). You can’t even sell your DVC to a family member for a cheap price, they’ll buy it out from under them. This keeps the market relatively stable, and you do not see DVC prices fall much, even during recessions.
Running screens for new buys on institutional dumps….looks like a painfully simple setup in a couple areas….
I can’t go through the day without three charts in front of my face on the discrepancy between the Magnificient7 and the rest of the SPX…META has near tripled over the year.
Ditto GLP1s…LLY is a double from earlier in the year.
Throw AI in there, why not….NVDA (up over 3x).
If I’m a discretionary manager why am I not lightening up somewhat on these stocks that the entire market seems to believe have run too much? Especially since I don’t have to window dress.
If so, what am I dumping for taxes that I may be cool on?
With both of those trades they now have a bunch of cash. Where’s it going? Are they sitting on it through the New Year? Are they rolling from NVDA to more traditional semis. Will they dump some LLY and grab some BMY (down 32% and at a 7 P/E). Drop META, grab some ETSY?
Drop CVS (disappointment, down 25%) for WBA (broken but getting fixed, down 50%), or vice-versa on this one? Or neither?
I’m ultimately looking for stocks they may be dumping and deflating even if it’s a permanent exit so long as the company is sound and valuation attractive. Or, I’m looking for the stocks they may be redeploying into before year end, as above.
So, in addition to screening for the bigger share price losers I’m crossing fundamentals (reasonable balance sheet and P/L) and valuation (not afraid and actually looking to dumpster dive).
Throw in volume, still playing with that parameter…top of mind says I want volume YTD to be at or above the total float…on the idea that holders of those stocks are more recent (and therefore have a higher basis and losses to actually harvest) and that the stocks are liquid enough where they will use them for the tax harvest…
IDK, I think I need to pick the brain of someone on an equity sales desk….I’ll let you know if anything pops up.
Some names do seem to be moving up already with a fair amount chatter ETSY is one, as is FCX. Started toeing into the latter…..
Am I foolish for being just a passive investor? Should I be exploring other options, dabbling a bit, beyond Index holdings and some blue chips? And, of course, beyond CDs?
Speaking with special counsel Jack Smith’s team earlier this year, former Vice President Mike Pence offered harrowing details about how, in the wake of the 2020 presidential election, then-President Donald Trump surrounded himself with “crank” attorneys, espoused “un-American” legal theories, and almost pushed the country toward a “constitutional crisis,” according to sources familiar with what Pence told investigators.
The sources said Pence also told investigators he’s “sure” that — in the days before Jan. 6, 2021, when a violent mob tried to stop Congress from certifying the election — he informed Trump he still hadn’t seen evidence of significant election fraud, but Trump was unmoved, continuing to claim the election was “stolen” and acting “recklessly” on that “tragic day.”
Pence is the highest-ranking current or former government official known to have spoken with the special counsel team investigating efforts to overturn the 2020 election. What he allegedly told investigators, described exclusively to ABC News, sheds further light on the evidence Smith’s team has amassed as it prosecutes Trump for allegedly trying to unlawfully “remain in power” and “erode public faith” in democratic institutions.
ABC News
“Am I foolish for being just a passive investor?”
FE, in a word, no…
Without knowing anything about your personal financial situation and goals (probably the single most important criterion to intelligently answering the question…)…
Study after study has shown over the long term that buy-and-hold beats active management, even by professionals, and especially in taxable accounts.
I made a dashboard that is always up…my return vs. SPY. The day that narrows to a point that doesn’t well compensate my excess time I’m moving straight to indices…and I want that day to come.
I get away with some serious outsize returns now for two reasons…I use option strategies (risking less for better returns relative to straight shares) and I was in the business for decades so know how some of the sausage is made….and, given both of the above I have an OCD/ADHD focus on trying to stay specifically and only in those lanes.
Some of my best trades come from crossing the two above criteria…BMY/CELG, TSLA (‘funding secured’), TSLA (no SEC settlement), META, DG, earnings…trades like these more than offset the (lower) losses from those that don’t work out and provide the outsize returns.
Earnings season is usually always good for me…volatility (option prices) is high and it is down the middle of the fairway of my career knowledge.
None of these trades would have worked had I not had the benefit of both the capital markets knowledge and the ability to position with options. I would not have done these trades with only straight shares.
I’ve mentioned on here previously most people if they think about it have some ‘edge’.
Grim, if he wanted to spend the time, could likely ring the register around names in a couple sectors. Not because of any ‘insider’ knowledge of a particular event, but because I’m sure if he sat down with an exec in one of several companies it would take him all of ten minutes to figure out if the company and management team are real or if they are Pumpkin-esque in their operations and outlook relative to market expectations and set up to disappoint.
Is there a sector or space you know well from being in it directly for years…if you want to dabble, what do you know? Do you have the on-the-ground knowledge to see when some similar public company share prices in that sector move too far in one direction or don’t respond as they should to an industry/company event? Good place to start if you want try with some play money….
“Pence is the highest-ranking current or former government official known to have spoken with the special counsel team…[w]hat he allegedly told investigators, described exclusively to ABC News, sheds further light on the evidence Smith’s team has amassed…”
So basically everything ABC News puts in quotes about Pence’s testimony in its alleged reporting is nothing but his personal viewpoint and opinion and contains zero hard evidence…..
Brilliant.
Gary,
Probably not. Unless you have an enormous amount of time to allot to research and tracking, then you are well ahead of most already. Very few can beat the indexes. I find market timing to be the easiest way for me. But it requires patience and discipline like a mofo. I’m talking waiting a decade frequently.
Lefty,
“I can’t go through the day without three charts in front of my face on the discrepancy between the Magnificient7 and the rest of the SPX” Which is why I traded in all of my QQQ for QQQE. It’ll pay when the non-magnificent Seven return to mean, probably at the next pullback. If they don’t, I still come out ahead. Nonetheless, it’s nice to see the impact of compounding and a bull market send my net worth to highs I never dreamed of in my twenties and thirties. Even with the small fortune we spent on fighting D’s cancer.
I stay off properties and rent a house. We get Disney’s VIP package, $800-per-hr for 8 hrs and skip all lines. Quite enjoyable experience. Need to book in advance because it sells out fast. VIP doesn’t include tickets.
grim says:
November 28, 2023 at 11:23 am
Every time we’ve gone to Disney, we just rent a DVC timeshare from one of the many people that treat it as a business. One woman we rent from owns dozens of them.
While I have lost on costly bets, VIIIX on 401-k and VTI on taxable made me millionaire.
Libturd says:
November 28, 2023 at 12:47 pm
“I can’t go through the day without three charts in front of my face on the discrepancy between the Magnificient7 and the rest of the SPX” Which is why I traded in all of my QQQ for QQQE. It’ll pay when the non-magnificent Seven return to mean, probably at the next pullback. If they don’t, I still come out ahead. Nonetheless, it’s nice to see the impact of compounding and a bull market send my net worth to highs I never dreamed of in my twenties and thirties.
VUG was my major moneymaker so far. Both in and out of my 401K.
Hear you on the equal weight Lib. RSP for me, in actual shares on that one. Wrote some nearer term covered calls against it (Decs) for a quick little return boost, hopefully doesn’t get called away as I would keep the shares longer term…
Mrs Fab is a Disney Guru.
We bought a 50pt Poly contract from one of the third party sellers, its cheaper than buying from Disney direct, but does not come with Lounge access. We added a 25pt minimum contract from Disney to get that card. There is a DVC lounge in every park where you can stop in for free soda, coffee and snacks.
You can roll unused points into the next year and you can borrow from the upcoming year. So if we need to we can do a single 225pt trip.
If we are not going to use the points, she will book a trip on a popular weekend and sell the trip, or just sell the points to Davids who is the biggest points broker. Selling a trip is a lot more work, but people will pay a lot for studio at Poly on a Race weekend.
She also worked part-time at one of the Disney stores so she got a lot of benefits. The biggest was that she was a blue card employee. She had unlimited access to the parks, and me and the kids got 16 days a year. She also got 50% discount on resort bookings so she would take the kids camping at Ft Wilderness for a few weeks in the summer. I would drive the trailer down get them set up, fly back for work and then back down to pick them up and drive the trailer back. The blue card also got her access to Cast Connections. It is a factory store for the staff where they send all the merch they didn’t sell in the stores. Once an event like the Princess marathon is over, or a new marvel movie is coming out all the older TShirts, Running Jackets etc are pulled from the shelves and sent to store. I would buy Tshirts from events I went to on previous trips and there is always new stock coming in.
So we have stayed in almost every property at a deep discount. We will probably add an Old Key West contract in a few years. Its a nice base and cheap points. You can use early booking to your home resorts, but you can use points anywhere.
If you don’t want to do the legwork, there is a great Disney Travel agency up here in Bergen County. https://magic2gotravel.com/ They will book you a great trip and help you plan an itinerary that works for you and your budget. They will also help you get dinner reservations for places you want to eat at. Trying to get a reservation for certain Disney restaurants is an art in itself.
Stay classy, Trump Campaign
“Trump’s campaign and an aligned super PAC quickly slammed the Koch endorsement.
“Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the China First, America Last movement — has chosen to endorse a pro-China, open borders, and globalist candidate in Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley,” campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said. He added that “no amount of shady money” will stop Trump from winning the GOP nomination and the White House.”
U.S. homes are worth a lot of money on paper. In a functioning market they would be worth less.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-price-is-wrong-for-housing-dff9d8bc?mod=hp_lead_pos4
Study after study has shown over the long term that buy-and-hold beats active management, even by professionals, and especially in taxable accounts.
This, I knew. But thanks all for the input. Just double-checking to see if I’m missing the latest and greatest like wall paper that glows in the dark or no cal pizza or a uranium field in Asbury Park.
Speaking with special counsel Jack Smith’s team earlier this year, former Vice President Mike Pence offered harrowing details…
It was harrowing, kids… people were gasping, fainting, clutching their chests in horror; children were crying, sirens were blaring, dogs were running amok, the news cameras were everywhere! The erect1on saga lives!
BREAKING NEWS!
Charlie Munger, investing genius and Warren Buffett’s right-hand man, dies at age 99
He had a good run!
3:38 insurrection usually results in hanging.
At least in classic America
Charlie Munger > Vigoda
I think you need to have a level you think is value, and then I think you need to simply look at the technicals. Don’t try to game the system. Just look for those dogs, and see the ones that continue to get beaten, even through resistence. If you are thinking institutional, then you have until 12/15, but plenty of retail type names probably give you the following week too. I assume it started in earnest already.
One of the things that I have found with all the quant trading is that everything seems to hit weeks early in the past, because there is so much front running. Positioning for Jackson Hole in early August. Fall selloffs in late August and early September. I feel sometimes the January effect happens in late December, even though that seems illogocal for tax reasons.
leftwing says:
November 28, 2023 at 9:04 am
Lib, looking today at putting together soon my own “dogs of…” for next year especially with some potential tax loss selling that may be upcoming in the market…mostly the YTD underperformers…not GLP1 pharma (JNJ, BMY), a regional bank or two, maybe some one-offs that got punished (CVS, CVX)…
Not particularly familiar with the nuances of tax loss selling…I get the facts, wash sale rule, last day 12/29 due to settlement, etc. But missing strategic timing and decision parameters especially for institutions.
So, anyone with an informed opinion here on:
1. When do institutions start tax loss harvesting
2. What stocks may be more/less vulnerable (specific or profile)
TYIA
One of the things that I have found with all the quant trading is that everything seems to hit weeks EARLIER THAN in the past
CRIME
•
2 hours ago
The peace of Jersey City, New Jersey, shattered on Tuesday when a series of gun battles claimed the lives of six individuals, among them a dedicated police officer, Detective Joseph Seals, aged 40, a revered veteran within the Jersey City Police Department.
The devastating events unfolded with three casualties within a kosher market and the demise of two suspected shooters, authorities confirmed. Chief Mike Kelly detailed the tragic loss of Detective Seals, indicating the officer was investigating a homicide when he was fatally shot at a nearby cemetery.
The scene quickly escalated as the assailants fled in a truck, eventually targeting the kosher market, unleashing gunfire upon officers and civilians. Witnesses described an hour of chaos and terror as the sound of rapid gunfire echoed through the neighborhood, unsettling residents and creating an atmosphere akin to a war zone.
LAX,
You are to far from NJ to make news.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Jersey_City_shooting
Others, lets retire Vigoda, lets replace with a Pentaverate. I propose the founding members of McConnell, Murdoch, Trump, Biden, Koch. As they died they are replaced.
2 mcChickens for $3.99
Thanks Joe!!
Chicago,
Take a look at Vanguard Tax-Managed Capital App Adm VTCLX. They have a Small Cap plus a Balanced?? one. Somewhere in there they will hint at what and how they are doing it. I think you are going to have a tough time finding specific info as is all propietary and double and triple checked by tax lawyers.
VTCLX- The investment seeks to provide a tax-efficient investment return consisting of long-term capital appreciation. The fund purchases stocks that pay lower dividends and are included in the Russell 1000 Index-an index that is made up of the stocks of large- and mid-capitalization U.S. companies. The adviser uses statistical methods to “sample” the index, aiming to minimize taxable dividends while approximating the other characteristics of the index. The expected result is a portfolio that will loosely track the total return performance of the index, but with lower taxable income distributions.
For me it is not about passive versus active. It is about allocation. So unless you are holding SPY straight since March 2009, the rest of the discussion is convoluted, because people talk past each other and argue different things in the same conversation.
All that said, I have one client who bought $44,000 of QQQ on 6/7/2004 and just lets it sit there. Cuurent value is $479,162.41.
Fast Eddie says:
November 28, 2023 at 12:01 pm
Am I foolish for being just a passive investor? Should I be exploring other options, dabbling a bit, beyond Index holdings and some blue chips? And, of course, beyond CDs?
Mark Cuban gonna make a run for the GOP nomination?
Enough with these rich television celebrities that can buy their way out of trouble and have a vested interest in greed more than caring for the spectrum of Americans they are supposed to be helping.
So for those with their Hunter Hard Ons.
Hunter says he is happy to come in front on Congress in a public hearing. The GOP want it behind closed doors! Guess they know it will not go well for them.
https://twitter.com/OversightDems/status/1729536412335153349/photo/1
Also this little nugget!
Alex Cole @acnewsitics
Have you noticed Giuliani and Bannon haven’t spoken about Hunter Biden’s laptop since they lawyered up when the FBI asked them why the laptop’s hard drive’s manufacture date was after the date Hunter Biden dropped it off and the blind guy who called him about it went into hiding?
Fab – That is not in his civil lawsuits, in fact the laptop is in FBI evidence as exhibit A.
IRS supervisory agent Gary Shapley testified to Congress that Hunter Biden’s laptop was “verified” in November 2019 and an expert assessed it was not manipulated in any way.
It was used as evidence for his tax crimes and perhaps the gun charge too, if it were tampered with there would have been a motion to surpress in his criminal cases that never happened. Instead Hunter’s lawyers filed motions to ask the Judge to subpoena Trump and Barr. He is going to jail the clock might even run out on a pardon but his dad can pull a president Ford and pardon him before he is convicted. Heck he might have to do it sooner if his health starts to fail. It’s going to be a long election cycle.
Cuban’s talent is, he sells tops.
That silly little Nasdaq Chart of mine. Pretty soon, Covid and the stupid stimulus will be just another small bump on the long way up the mountain road.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/JPszJqHw5UXHpWDX9
“…Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley…”
You know, I think I can understand the plethora of pathologies this idiot possesses except this one…but what is so seriously wrong with this guy that consistently produces third grade playground insults?
Forget the sons. they’re in for the ride. But the daughters, even the ditzy one? Or Ivanka?
I mean, how cringe-worthy must this be for a 40 year old professional woman to wake up to? From her father? FFS…
The same people who think the laptop is fake are the same people who still think the dossier is real. Low iq types.
“One of the things that I have found with all the quant trading is that everything seems to hit weeks [earlier than] in the past, because there is so much front running. ”
Agree. Seeing that even on some shorter term charts with frequently used technicals.
“I think you need to have a level you think is value, and then I think you need to simply look at the technicals. Don’t try to game the system. Just look for those dogs, and see the ones that continue to get beaten, even through resistence. If you are thinking institutional, then you have until 12/15…”
TY on the thoughts.
I try to stay in my lane…I have a very good affinity for picking over reactions, up and down, longer and shorter term…comes from crossing fundamentals with those technicals and share price reactions.
Two of the last three earnings cycles were gifts on the shorter term trades…bunch of solid companies beat prior period revenue and earnings, confirm FY guidance, trade at reasonable multiples, but miss by a penny or two on expectations and are down 10-15% or more….hit that offer all day long…
Kind of what I’m trying to look for on the tax selling…less a shotgun ‘dogs of the Dow’ approach and more if I can refine it down to finding the babies being tossed out with the bathwater…
May just need to be guided by price action.
Not that I have any opinion on the laptop, cause I don’t, but I just watched a long documentary on Watergate that was very well done.
Whole thing unraveled because of a piece of tape placed on a door. Twice.
Those people weren’t that bright. But even the best overlook some details.
Hunter may be a shady character. But that alone makes him easier to set up for something he didn’t do. Never underestimate someone’s intent to go after you if they want you eliminated, just look how much America is willing to spend to have people dispatched.
Just sayin’
Damn,
We got a new resident where I work. Nice guy, talented, gets along with everyone. Not aggressive at all.
I’ve never seen a group of women get moist so fast in my life. They practically have to change their scrubs every hour. I’m waiting for them to poison each other’s food during the competition.
Hall is suing Oates
Pope kicks out Cardinal.
12 players in penalty box at same time
This world is going bonkers.
Uh, not following. He’s suing the repairman for “invading his privacy”. What does that tell you?
Left: I am not sure that everyone on the board appreciates that you are running a low risk or managed risk strategy. Everyone always thinks about launch angle and home runs. You are more Tony Gwynn, smack a double the other way. Just hit the ball where it is pitched.
😂😂😂
A Catholic priest is paying for his sins after he allowed singer Sabrina Carpenter to film a ‘sacrilegious’ pop video on the altar of his New York church.
Monsignor Jamie J Gigantiello issued a groveling apology and was sacked as church administrator after the former Disney star turned sex siren cavorted in the apse of the Annunciation of the Blessed Virgin Mary Church in Brooklyn.
“Everyone always thinks about launch angle and home runs. You are more Tony Gwynn, smack a double the other way. Just hit the ball where it is pitched.”
I’m more, wait for the left-handed pitcher to be behind in the count 3 to 2 and then bunt to third. But, only when Vince Coleman is on first.
NYC. Free entertainment on the subway.
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/186i6zc/average_nyc_subway_encounter/
With that said, my mom, in her mid 80’s, is going through all of her finances now that my step-father passed. She’s asked me to look at them to make sure they are okay.
The big one, is still managed by the family broker who I dumped in 1993 after I easily outperformed him in a yearly investment picking bet to keep my measly 90K or so under his control. Well, he has my mom in about 90% corporate bonds and about 10% in a US treasuries ETF. Fixed income strategy as you would expect. Only the bond market had it’s worst year since the 1920s thanks to Powell and his inflation crushing campaign. I explained why her account dropped almost 10% in the last year while mine has gone bonkers. I explained to her that bonds should perform much better if Powell starts cutting the lending rate. We’ll see.
Then I looked at my dad’s taxable account. I’m glad he stuck to his guns about never investing more than 10% of his portfolio in individual stocks. Well he had a total of seven stocks. Two were P&G types, flat as you would expect. Three were Pumpkin specials, all of which I sold down 90% or more. But two were very solid. Would you believe he was in Nvidia? Wish he was alive to see the latest AI infused run. The other was a microchip company which also benefitted from the AI madness. In the end, he made about 10% gains over the last year. I just found it interesting to see that he held a lot of crap and for way too long. He taught me much of what I know and didn’t exactly play the goose role.
I sold off about 40% of his NVIDIA.
I got this summary of a report today, posting in case it helps explain what’s going on with the poor and middle class.
The strength of the consumer has boosted the fortunes of the U.S. economy this year, shifting the narrative away from recession risk toward talk of a soft landing, influencing bond yields and the equity market along the way. They’ve fared better than expected despite persistent inflation and rising interest rates. It’s not usually wise to bet against the will of U.S. consumers to spend, and that’s been the case lately, as lesser interest rate sensitivity and robust balance sheets have trumped concerns about inflation.
We examined the balance sheets of the consumers that populate the bottom 80% of the income distribution. They account for about 60% of consumption and two-thirds of credit card debt, auto loans and student debt. The constituents of that large cohort are just as likely to be over 55 as they are to be Millennials and Gen-Zers. The economic stimulus and zero interest rate setting that prevailed during COVID created a windfall for them, and at the end of 2022 debt service ratios for the bottom 80% were at 30-year lows, while debt-to-income ratios were the lowest in 20 years. There’s still an unusual amount of liquid assets on their balance sheets and unlike in 2007 their home equity positions are strong. The financial flexibility that’s contributed to the resilience in spending in the last few years is intact.
Inflation, and to a far lesser extent higher interest rates, impinged on the real spending power of the bottom 80% of earners in 2022 to the tune of (4) points of consumption. This year the calculus was different as wage gains trumped cost increases and the net effect was a gain of +1%. Consumer sentiment surveys didn’t predict consumption in this period as respondents appeared to underweight the benefits of strong balance sheets and wage growth.
Weighing the Parts: Wages, Credit, Inflation
The trajectory of wages and the job market are critical to determining the spending trend of the bottom 80% of the distribution. We think the most likely outcome from here is a slowing, but not a break off-trend. Unfilled job openings are still elevated compared to the size of the labor force while initial claims have remained in the range seen in prior expansions. What’s transpired in the last 18 months has been a move from extreme labor market tightness to a closer to normal state. The shift has been most apparent in low-skill service positions where the run rate in wage growth has fallen from +9% to +4%. Wage pressures have abated, setting the stage for lower nominal growth rates.
There’s been a pick-up in delinquency rates for credit card and auto loans, driven by younger households who carry a large card balance and/or have auto and student loan payments to make as well. Student debt is more skewed to those in the top 20% of income than it has been in the past, and the most vulnerable group, those under age 45 that are in the bottom 80% have greater-than-usual financial flexibility, like their older peers. The pressure on Millennials’ finances from the resumption of those payments should contribute to disinflation or perhaps outright deflation in rents, a trend not yet captured in the official statistics.
Ha, yes chi, love the analogy…hell, I would take all singles if I could have season batting averages like Ty Cobb!
Texas Boomers
https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreakout/comments/186480v/woman_rescued_a_loose_dog_and_this_is_the_thanks/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
No One The stimulus money comments range from its long gone, to people still have it. I believe it’s long gone, but what do I know!
I favor the Ted Williams analogy of investing over the Tony Gwynn one. Namely, to wait for, and only swing at the best pitches to hit in the strike zone, and then hit them hard. No disrespect to Tony Gwynn who also had a good eye: career 790 walks to 434 strikeouts. But Ted Williams was godly: 2021 walks to 709 strikeouts. In 1941 he had 147 walks vs only 27 strikeouts while hitting 37 homers. Then after ’42 took off what would have been 3 of his prime age seasons to help kill Nazis instead of pitchers.
I’ll take Williams as well…point being lots of good swings but most importantly seasons over .400!
Since sports seems to be the topic, this one is cute..
A day after news broke that Sports Illustrated has been publishing AI-generated articles passed off as the work of writers who did not exist, the staff of the storied sports magazine gathered for a virtual all-hands meeting. Staffers were furious, according to people who attended who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal company business.
Instead of real people generating fake news all the time, the media is switching to fake people creating fake news. Makes more sense.
The sporting news industry has turned into complete trash. They all just report “rumors” from “anonymous sources”.
Ted Williams also had better stats than DiMaggio during DiMaggio’s entire 56 game hitting streak. They say the reason Williams was a good pilot was because of his incredible athletic abilities and vision. There was a clip a while ago from the All Star game where they brought out Ted Williams and you saw guys like Jeter, Griffey, etc just standing around in awe of the dude. That’s how you know you are a legend. The home run era kinda distorted the perception of who’s a good hitter and who isn’t. I loved playing small ball and bunting/stealing.
Can’t really comment on players abilities that I didn’t get to see. I mean, I watch clips here and there of these guys. Koufax’s curve was nasty. I did see Gwynn plenty and the guy was just incredible. I haven’t seen a hitter as good as him to this day IMO. My favorite pitcher to this day is still Greg Maddux.
A lot of the young people like to assume all of the guys now are better than in years past, even not far ago like 10-20 years ago. Most of it’s nonsense. For example, none of these guys can duplicate the moves of Magic Johnson or Michael Jordan. But even if they do manage to play copycat on a move, it’s akin to me declaring myself better than Isaac Newton because I know more Physics than he did.
Republicans get it…
“The federal return-to-office policy is likely to become an issue in next year’s elections. Republican members of Congress have introduced legislation to require federal workers to return to prepandemic schedules and have criticized the Biden administration for not doing more.
“It’s not working,” said Rep. Clay Higgins (R., La.) during a subcommittee hearing on federal workplace this fall. “We need our executive branch to perform in person in your office, end of story.”
Some federal agencies are doing better than others. The Department of Veterans Affairs and the U.S. Agency for International Development have reached their goals in adopting and enforcing new workplace requirements, according to the administration spokesman. Other agencies haven’t reached their targets, the spokesman said. ”
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/think-companies-are-struggling-to-fill-offices-look-at-the-government-fdd850b0?mod=hp_major_pos1#cxrecs_s
Our country is so soft right now. Bunch of pussies that can’t even go into work. But but but…the commute….my quality of life. STFU and do something besides complaining.
Majority of money in safe investments that are boring….and the rest should be swinging for Home Runs! You mine as well take some shots that can change your life…not like you will ever use all your money….it will die with you. Mine as well swing for the fences and change your life with 10% of your investments.
OK chi, let’s have some fun with lines with SPY….
Pull up a two year daily candle chart (change from open) throw an RSI 14 panel underneath. On the price chart overlay a 2sd bollinger and a 20 day parabolic SAR (0.2, 0.02).
Draw a horizontal line around 458…LT resistance? My eyes see five tests and fails.
Snap a trendline (daily low price) starting at 10/14/22 and running through 9/20/23. Look at the current convergence of these lines, three points of SPY separate them today, and they will intersect in a few days. Look at the last six days of compression in price action.
This setup mostly resolves with a meaningful breakout (one direction or the other).
RSI is above 70, says the breakout is downside as R-squared on the daily SPY RSI is pretty high…but, it’s been riding 70 for days which makes that likelihood less.
The strong slope up of the SAR frequently indicates it will break trend soon and move to the downside, but R-squared there is lower.
Note the gap around 440 screaming to be filled.
Missing piece, the bollinger is confirming none of the above move downward and its mid trend (20 day) and s2sd high price action says higher. As do non-technical factors like seasonality and FOMO.
And the background scenery recall is an uber-low VIX.
Put it all in a blender and what do we have?
Higher than usual likelihood of a meaningful near term move with moderately better than usual chance that it may be down. Option prices (VIX) are stupid cheap.
I can get 451/445 vertical put spreads for 12/15 at 1.20, giving a five bagger (4x profit).
My risk management says exit at 50% down, so I am looking at 0.60 at risk for 4.80 profit if she goes through 445 (2% down).
I’m running a 50 delta on my longs so a 2% down hits me for 1% on the portfolio.
So…..
If I put 0.50% of my portfolio into this trade (risking 0.25%) I will make 2% in the event of a decline to 445, or 1% overall net.
If I go as high as 1.0% into the trade (risking 0.50%) I will make 4% in the event of a decline to 445, or 3% overall net.
I’ll swing (and gladly miss occasionally) on trades like these….need to look a bit more closely and will probably use futes but you get the idea. More Gwynn here than Cobb/Williams though, but it works.
Apologies for the oversimplified math, as you know other items come into play (gamma, etc) but ignored for simplicity.
Thoughts?
3rd Qtr GDP, 5.2 percent revised , but apparently growth fading, increase due to consumer spending apparently. Soft landing, no landing, huge rate cuts next year! Who knows? Carry on!
3b/Juice,
Falling bond yields help make another Fed rate hike likely next month, but expect a quick pivot to cuts in 2024, S&P Global says
38
The Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points next month, S&P Global Ratings forecast.
That’s as falling Treasury yields are no longer a constraint on financial conditions.
But the Fed will have to quickly pivot as the impact of high rates wears down on the labor market next year.
A final interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve is likely next month, as Treasury yields have become less effective in tightening financial conditions, S&P Global Ratings said in a Tuesday forecast.
While cooler inflation sparked bets that monetary policy could soon pivot to cuts, the ratings agency sees a 25-basis-point increase in December instead.
That’s as Treasury yields have plunged, after last month’s surge pushed long-dated rates above the 5% threshold. Those highs tightened financial conditions, allowing the Fed to keep rates steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range for two consecutive meetings, S&P said.
“Since then, financial conditions have eased somewhat (paradoxically increasing the chances of another rate hike), seemingly because of the following factors,” it added.
The first was the Treasury’s plan to issue more shorter-duration debt in the coming months, providing relief on 10-year yields. The second was the below-forecast October consumer price report, which prompted markets to rule out further rate hikes and pull forward rates cuts to earlier in 2024.
Meanwhile, expectations of an easing in core inflation pressures are somewhat exaggerated, mandating that the central remains hawkish, according to the note.
But once the Fed hikes, it will pivot quickly in June, when monthly payroll reports will turn negative and inflation gets closer to the target, S&P wrote.
Further cuts will come in the second half of the year, as the policy’s impact on the labor market becomes more apparent. The agency expects rates to land at 4.6% and 2.9% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
“If downside risks to our baseline growth were to materialize, the Fed won’t hesitate to cut more. If the economy keeps humming, the restrictive stance could last longer at its peak real rate,” S&P said.
In its view, higher costs of capital will erode US hiring, and cause the unemployment rate to rise from 3.9% to 4.6% in 2025. Weaker economic growth will also pressure down labor demand.
S&P’s outlook was supported by a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday, who noted that elevated inflation could trigger more rate hikes.
Libturd says, “Such precision in their forecasts.”
Bread and circuses 2023 style
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12802519/Biden-WIPED-student-loan-debt.html#article-12802519
I’m such a doofus. I drove a used Corolla and bought a 2 bedroom townhouse while I was paying back my student loans. Should have done the graduated payment thing and kept refinancing to string it out as long as possible. Could have swung a Camry and a pos cape.
Ted Williams had a lifetime OPS+ of 190. Meaning onbase plus slugging 90% better than the league average. For context, the unanimous MVP of the NL this year, Ronald Acuna, had his best OPS+ year yet of 168 (68% better than league average).
Ted Williams had 6 full seasons above 200 (more than double the league average).
Mike Trout from 2012-22 was typically around the 170-198 zone for OPS+, so has been the best MLB hitter for the last decade, but has been buried by the Angels’ general incompetence.
Babe Ruth had a lifetime OPS+ of 206, with a peak season of 255 (more than twice as good as the average hitter) He did repeatedly lead the league in strikeouts however, as well as in HRs, walks, and RBI. Ruth’s 136 career triples is surprisingly high for a fat guy. Tony Gwinn who was fast when young, had a career 85 triples.
As a Braves fan I’m hoping Acuna steps up his game even more as he’s in his prime years.
Yeah, lol, they had me until the June specificity…rates and markets really boil down to whether the authors/analysts see an economic slowdown or not it seems…
Just got taken out of a slug of MS on an old GTC order….it’s up almost 3% today….
Re: lib’s comment and the S&P forecast….
HMB,
Biden may as well have written, “I forgive your debt, now vote for me”
Free stuff for everyone who votes for me, XoXo, Santa Biden!
Rate cut fever!!
HMB,
Biden may as well have written, “I forgive your debt, now vote for me”
Free stuff for everyone who votes for me, XoXo, Santa Biden!
He sends me free money, I’ll vote for him.
That’s what everyone does.
I used Gwynn specifically. Another example would be Boggs or Suzuki. I just think Gwynn was the best example. I hate Boggs, and Suzuki was too aggressive. The point being that Left already has the money, he is just trying to pocket gains for current year income to subsidize his savings. Ted Williams had an all encompassing hitting approach. I don’t think Left ever puts his best swing on anything. He puts on his most well calculated swing to avoid an out.
No One says:
November 29, 2023 at 10:51 am
I favor the Ted Williams analogy of investing over the Tony Gwynn one. Namely, to wait for, and only swing at the best pitches to hit in the strike zone, and then hit them hard. No disrespect to Tony Gwynn who also had a good eye: career 790 walks to 434 strikeouts. But Ted Williams was godly: 2021 walks to 709 strikeouts. In 1941 he had 147 walks vs only 27 strikeouts while hitting 37 homers. Then after ’42 took off what would have been 3 of his prime age seasons to help kill Nazis instead of pitchers.
Sandy Koufax was a close friend of my dad’s. They went to high school together. He used to come over to break bread from time to time in the 70s.
Chi,
I think modern analytics would tell Gwynn that he left some wins on the table by favoring batting average and singles over walks and homers. Because I recall hearing that Gwynn had a power swing that he would occasionally show in batting practice, but he purposefully didn’t use it in games.
Modern analytics guys make fun in message boards of the old-timer announcers who idolize the Tony Gwynn hitting style and constantly talk about how great it is to “fist the ball the other way” or even worse, bunting, because teams that are actually winning games are mostly doing so via slugging, not small ball.
And my dad got All-American and Sandy didn’t. Of course in high school, Sandy did not know he was a pitcher yet. My dad, on-the-other-hand, could hit. My dad still had his glove when he died. You should have seen this thing. It had no pocket whatsoever. Like trying to catch with mittens on.
So Gwynn hits an outside pitch down the leftfield line. The leftfielder is Kevin Mitchell, so he is slow to grab the ball. Gwynn takes a seriously wide turn at first, but looks up and sees Mitchell was quick getting rid of the ball. Gwynn stops and turns back around with a single.
leftwing says:
November 29, 2023 at 11:45 am
My risk management says exit at 50% down, so I am looking at 0.60 at risk for 4.80 profit if she goes through 445 (2% down).
The unsung heroes of our youth. Gene Tenace and Mike “The Human Rain Dealy” Hargrove.
No One says:
November 29, 2023 at 2:11 pm
Chi,
I think modern analytics would tell Gwynn that he left some wins on the table by favoring batting average and singles over walks and homers. Because I recall hearing that Gwynn had a power swing that he would occasionally show in batting practice, but he purposefully didn’t use it in games.
Modern analytics guys make fun in message boards of the old-timer announcers who idolize the Tony Gwynn hitting style and constantly talk about how great it is to “fist the ball the other way” or even worse, bunting, because teams that are actually winning games are mostly doing so via slugging, not small ball.
How much was the cost of a college credit when Boomer went to school, 1.49?
Libturd,
That’s pretty cool! You get some autographs? Was he an interesting guy?
A shame that the arthritis in his elbow cut his career short. I wonder if modern medicine could have lengthened his career if he was pitching now.
Asking – VIX is so low that you don’t mind paying for 17 days, of which the market is closed for 4 (actually a good factor)?
I don’t know how to observe what I am asking here….. is this SPY level out of line with VIX = 12.8? This VIX is ridiculous….. something is wrong….. people writing OOTM puts? Maybe overall to your overarching question. The VIX looks fucked up here. Is it possibly we have people closing out positions for year end?
leftwing says:
November 29, 2023 at 11:45 am
Thoughts?
I don’t like to admit this, but Fred Wilpon would also join us sometimes. Those three played ball together. Sandy at first. My Dad in the outfield and Wilpon pitched. All three got scholarships, though, not in baseball as baseball wasn’t much of a college sport then. Sandy got his in basketball at Cincy. My dad Columbia for football and Wilpon actually did get a baseball scholly, but got seriously injured first year To make this story even more interesting. My dad had his leg broken by two other scholarship guys who eventually played on the Jets. Sammy Deluca was his name. His high school in Brooklyn was a true talent factory. Look up Lafayette high school famous alumni. It’s mind boggling the names that come out of there.
Personality-wise, Sandy really was a private person. He loved to talk, but never about himself or his fame. He was a humble Jew and considered himself more lucky than skilled. My dad said that was really more the case for Wilpon who was more of a fool. This always shined through as Mets Manager and then with the Madoff mess. My dad was invited in too. He wisely stayed away. Honestly, I was mostly a little kid when he was closer to my dad. They grew apart in the 80s. The only one he stayed close to was the ass who broke his leg, Sammy.
I miss my dad greatly.
Boggs also had a power swing too. If you ever watched him in BP, dude would crank 10 homers in a row. Probably should have entered the HR derby at some point.
No One,
if you’ve ever watched Sandy’s retirement press conference, it’s amazing the foresight the guy had about his health and risks. He was only 31 but talks with the wisdom of a 50 year old man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ouIk6RvUl8
Don’t know chi…VIX is cheap by recent standards but can stay cheap as you know for multiple months on end…
For me it’s a worthwhile trade given the risk management (out at 50% down, assuming no gap up) combined with the return parameters (multiples on a very low movement in the index).
Plus, it’s after the Fed meeting so ideally some vol creeps back into that specific series, beneficial to the trade holding value…we’re at 96% probability for ‘no change’ in Dec and 50% probability of a cut in Mar…lot of people offsides if there is any movement off those…
I’m up 12% so far since putting on the first part of what I want to hold, nice but not a big deal or what I’m playing for, lets see where those crazy chart lines move the balance of the week. You have times to replicate them on your screen?
I was aggravated I got taken out of my MS by a GTC that I don’t even remember putting on as it changes the total net effect of the SPY put trade but at least the timing of that wasn’t horrible lol….
On the other stuff the guys in my trading discord, a couple who swing serious sticks and a couple others I would follow almost anywhere, are loading up on long puts as well…unusual for them as they are almost exclusively premium sellers but also not unusual as no way in hell are they going to write anything now given the current cheap premia (VIX)…one of them started a long vert position in the Jan 430/410P today and was a good portion of the volume…I piggybacked by legging into some but at the 440/420 level, cost me maybe 0.70 more but figured the extra 10 points on the long strike was worth that tradeoff. Haven’t had time to chime in there so I don’t know their rationale, just saw the trades pass.
Need to re-run my SPY-beta-delta in light of the MS sale, the Jan put spread, and covered calls on the RSP…while I’ve automated my return dashboard the other calc is still old school HP12-c….
All fun and games until someone gets hurt lol.
“I miss my dad greatly.”
Chin up buddy, he sounds like a great guy. Holidays can be emotional, while he’s gone you have two outstanding boys of your own who feel the same way toward you.
The first one would never admit it.
You are a madman at trading though. I totally follow all of your rationale and question sometimes how you even come up with these ideas. But they do make a ton of sense. I think I’m just an old dog when it comes to wanting to learn to utilize options to my advantage. Though, I don’t doubt for one minute that I’m missing out. Like Cat Stevens said, I am old, but I’m happy.
Maybe Pump’s can give you some advice on the VIX? :P
A nice and easy short-term value play. Brown & Brown (insurance). Just raised the dividend nicely. Surprise last quarter. Wouldn’t have raised the dividend if they were not surprising this quarter too. Also have a feeling insurers are going to get a break from the weather this year simply because the last two years were anomalies. With the huge policy increases, they should do very very nicely. This should be a 3 month to year out play.
Bottom line, the US is spending too much compared to the amount of productivity and taxes it is (read: its citizens and companies are) generating, and this excess spending is causing the need for the Treasury to borrow more and more…
…and more.
https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1729618961321660455?s=46
I transferred my ETH position to SOL last month. Bought at 28. Doubled my money in a month. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose with high risk.
I reiterate; if you aren’t taking risks with 10% or less of your investment capital, you are doing it wrong. You will still do well, but you will never ever have life changing money till you are too old to even spend it.
And if you aren’t taking risks in a capitalist based system, doing it wrong.
Seems like Gen Z is right, you will need to make some real bucks for these Boomer supporting mortgages. And no way you are going to pay that mortgage with that 200k student loan over your head.
Dementia Joe, open the floodgates!!
The rise of the million-dollar mortgage! Government lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to offer home loans over $1 million in MORE US counties as house prices reach record highs
The Great Pumpkin says:
March 11, 2022 at 7:44 pm
Just bought back into crypto. Looks like this is the bottom zone. Instead of diversifying, bought back into ETH only. It’s currently staked for 4.5% and in exchange i can’t sell till they upgrade to ETH 2.0.
Yep sure…
Schiff might be correct here…
The U.S. #economy is already in #recession. Though Q3 #GDP grew by 5.2%, government spending contributed 5.5%. So without that spending, GDP would’ve contracted by .3%. Government spending borrowed money does’t reflect real economic growth. It will only lead to higher #inflation.
BRT,
Really don’t give a f’k. It’s the truth. Saw the emotion change on twitter. And just followed it.
It’s hard to read this market right now because of inflation. It makes you think gains are good because you are stuck in the low rate/inflation mindset. Reality is, when factoring in inflation, most stocks took a major bat to the head. Dangerous environment out there right now as we are uncharted territory. Yet, this is the best time to take risks. Could pay off huge.
Re: Schiff
1. Second paragraph: “The increase in real GDP reflected increases in all components of GDP, led by consumer spending, private inventory investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-11/tech3q23_2nd.pdf
2. The government has been deficit funding for years, at levels of real GDP growth lower than 5.2%. Does that mean none of the GDP gains over the past years were real either?
I’ll give you time to post the query to X…..GL! /s
“You are a madman at trading though.”
LOL, OCD main with a side of ADHD spiced up with a 1570 math SAT basted in years of 80+ hour workweeks in finance.
Works til it doesn’t.
TY on B&B will check it out.
*770* oops.
I’d rather question if it is sustainable and for how long?
leftwing says:
November 29, 2023 at 9:29 pm
Re: Schiff
1. Second paragraph: “The increase in real GDP reflected increases in all components of GDP, led by consumer spending, private inventory investment, and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-11/tech3q23_2nd.pdf
2. The government has been deficit funding for years, at levels of real GDP growth lower than 5.2%. Does that mean none of the GDP gains over the past years were real either?
I’ll give you time to post the query to X…..GL! /s
Since you seemed to miss the the two points how about starting by getting the data right then asking if it actually matters in the way the author implies before caring how and if it continues…
Look at Japan’s debt to GDP numbnuts.