Maybe in 2025?

From Fast Company:

U.S. home prices to hold firm in 2024 even if a mild recession hits, Fannie Mae says

Fannie Mae economists expect U.S. economic growth to decelerate, leading to a mild recession in 2024, according to the latest forecast released this week by Fannie Mae.

“The economy is now slowing from the otherwise robust first estimate of third quarter growth,” wrote Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s chief economist. “The slowdown in employment gains has continued, and stress is growing on consumers’ ability to sustain their high levels of spending—unsurprising results that we attribute to the often-lagged economic effect of monetary policy tightening.”

But here’s the thing: While Fannie Mae expects the U.S. economy is likely to slip into a mild recession next year, it doesn’t project that national home prices will fall in 2024.

Fannie Mae’s forecast model expects U.S. home prices to finish 2023 up 6.7% followed by a 2.8% gain in 2024. Then in 2025, Fannie Mae expects a slight 0.4% dip.

Earlier this year, when Fannie Mae revised its 2023 home price forecast from negative to positive appreciation, it pointed to a lack of supply that has shielded national home prices from declining. That suggests a belief that a mild recession wouldn’t materially change that dynamic.

While Fannie Mae doesn’t expect a significant mortgage rate drop next year, it anticipates that rates will continue to drift down, reaching 7.1% by the end of 2024 and 6.8% by the end of 2025.

“Housing has been and continues to be under serious affordability pressure, resulting in recessionary-level home sales activity. While many current owners with low mortgage rates will likely continue to be discouraged from listing their homes, we expect mortgage rates to trend modestly downward in 2024, which should help kickstart a gradual recovery in home sales into 2025,” wrote Duncan.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

95 Responses to Maybe in 2025?

  1. grim says:

    “If you redesign a chip around a particular cut line that enables them to do AI, I’m going to control it the very next day,” she said, in a speech. 1/3 $NVDA #semiconductors

    If you’ve been following GPU prices on eBay, which have been going UP, rather significantly, one of the supposed reasons for this is offshore purchase of gaming and business GPU by China entities willing to pay an absurd premium.

    There are also some rumors of companies removing the GPUs from consumer grade hardware and soldering them into much more capable (higher ram) boards.

    When you think about how many GPUs were purchased to support the Crypto boom, should come as no surprise that there is plenty of availability of high end compute.

    NVIDIA’s 40## line can hold a candle to the newer datacenter GPUs, especially considering the most advanced are unavailable at nearly any price.

  2. Phoenix says:

    America is continuing to fall apart. Social media will end up being the cause.

    First

    Pennsylvania governor slams anti-Semitic mob who screamed ‘You can’t hide, we charge you with genocide’ into Jewish-owned Philly FALAFEL restaurant…hours after students at nearby UPenn called for ‘intifada’
    A mob the Democrat governor of Pennsylvania called anti-Semitic protested a Jewish-owned Philadelphia falafel restaurant Sunday night
    At the same time, a group of students at the University of Pennsylvania went viral for calling for an ‘intifada’
    The Philadelphia chain is owned by Mike Solomonov, an Israeli-born, Pittsburgh raised chef who has won the James Beard Award in the past

  3. Phoenix says:

    Police say “there is nothing they can do.” Hehe.

    When have I heard that before….

    The unstoppable rise of deepfake PORN: Experts reveal explosion in AI sites and apps that stitch faces of ANYONE with photos online onto naked bodies, as victims tell of their horror after police say there is NOTHING they can do

  4. Phoenix says:

    LA homeowner shoots and kills would-be burglar and injures another after four men broke in while his grandmother and toddler were inside: Cops then arrest HIM

    It’s called “law and order,” cause the whole idea is to control you and have “order.”
    Not law and justice, because you can only “pursue” justice, and while you are chasing it, law will be busy arresting you.

    When seconds count the police are only minutes away. And if it takes them even longer than that, like not at all, Warren vs District of Columbia will be there to protect them, not you. Justice will escape into the darkness.

  5. Phoenix says:

    Hehe. Should be funny if they actually put this guy in jail. Can’t wait to see the protests if they do, cause you do know, there will be.

    Grab some popcorn, enjoy the show on your Chinese made tv.

    Can ANYTHING stop him? New poll puts Trump on track to win 60% of votes in GOP primary – five times more than nearest rival Ron DeSantis

  6. Phoenix says:

    Republican congressman Tim Burchett said the government is covering up its knowledge about UFOs and are demanding transparency. Graff said the coverup could be two-fold, including both the governments own secret developments of technology and what the government is sensing and detecting in and around US airspace. Burchett is demanding transparency for tax payers about what the government is finding.

    He must have eaten the wrong gummy.

  7. Fast Eddie says:

    Housing has been and continues to be under serious affordability pressure…

    Not here. There not even putting for sale signs on the lawn any longer. The only sign you’ll see is under contract. Once again, if you don’t list for a price that makes you nauseous, then you underpriced it. Make sure you let the boiled cabbage and Rheingold fester on the stove for a few days before the open house and as always, enjoy a few packs of Chesterfields. Bonus points if the dog wizzes on the rug a time or two.

  8. Phoenix says:

    America is afraid of the Chinese, who are hard at work, connected and mobilized.

    It should pay attention to itself, where there is riot after riot, mob after mob out in the streets, homeless veterans, nine dollar mayonnaise, teacher’s banging students, and Eddie’s so called “crapshacks” on sale for 1M with Fannie and Freddie going to back it with government paper.

  9. Phoenix says:

    Eddie,
    You should have listened to Pumpy, but you refused. Just think how rich you could be if you just bought two crapshacks a few years back, threw some yeast in there and let your money grow.

    But you didn’t.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 4, 2023 at 7:19 am
    Housing has been and continues to be under serious affordability pressure…

    Not here. There not even putting for sale signs on the lawn any longer. The only sign you’ll see is under contract. Once again, if you don’t list for a price that makes you nauseous, then you underpriced it. Make sure you let the boiled cabbage and Rheingold fester on the stove for a few days before the open house and as always, enjoy a few packs of Chesterfields. Bonus points if the dog wizzes on the rug a time or two.

  10. Phoenix says:

    Pumpy, the anti-work-from-home teacher wins the Real Estate forum prize with one line:

    Buy now or be priced out forever.

    If it weren’t for his wife, he might be the richest guy on the forum. The Real Estate forum.

    Can’t win ’em all. Just jack up the rent and take the wife to the Capitol Grille on the weekend.

    Pumpy, you came so close. Like a lotto ticket holder without the powerball. Too bad she had it gripped tightly in her hand and was squeezing it. Hopefully one day it doesn’t get clean ripped off.

  11. Juice Box says:

    Grim – Not a rumor at all. Where there is a will there is a way…Any GPU with a bidirectional transfer rate of 600GB/sec or more is sanctioned.

    Facebook and Meta bought 500,000 Nvidia in Q3 alone, huge backlogs to get H100s
    As far as repurpose gaming GPUs that is China for sure. AD102 GPU is the top-of-the-line PC gaming cards. They go for $1700 now.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinese-factories-add-blowers-to-old-rtx-4090-cards#:~:text=The%20GeForce%20RTX%204090%20is,the%20GeForce%20RTX%204090%20included.

  12. Fast Eddie says:

    Phoenix,

    Come on, you should know better; us pudgy, mouth-breathing boomers will always find a way to vacuum money from other sources to fund our chubby, artery-clogging lifestyles. Listen, I toss some chex mix on the front lawn once in a while as the kids are walking to the school bus stop. I mean, who knows if they had breakfast or not? It’s a shame, a shame.

  13. Juice Box says:

    I mentioned the transfer rate, but there is a formula for the sanctions. Total Processing Power which is TFLOPS (or TOPS for integer work) multiplied by the number of bits cannot be greater than 4,800.

    https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-reportedly-creating-new-rtx-4090-d-dragon-gpu-to-comply-with-us-export-regulations-for-china

  14. Phoenix says:

    Chinese are creative, smart, and really, really, really hardworking people that are going to keep coming after you like an army of ants.

    Keep messing with them economically, the gloves just might come off.

    Juice Box says:
    December 4, 2023 at 7:47 am
    Grim – Not a rumor at all. Where there is a will there is a way…Any GPU with a bidirectional transfer rate of 600GB/sec or more is sanctioned.

    Facebook and Meta bought 500,000 Nvidia in Q3 alone, huge backlogs to get H100s
    As far as repurpose gaming GPUs that is China for sure. AD102 GPU is the top-of-the-line PC gaming cards. They go for $1700 now.

  15. Phoenix says:

    Making a neutered RTX 4090 is a smart move from Nvidia, as the Chinese market is huge, with a total population over 4x greater than the United States.

    Why should they want to buy “neutered” American garbage? Just cause America wants the money from the “4x” greater population?

    Don’t know if they will do it, but they should tell the Americans to sell their “neutered” video cards to their “neutered” and feminized American basement dwelling males.

  16. 3b says:

    Phoenix: You are on fire this morning!

  17. 3b says:

    U Penn students scream for intifada, that is comical. I can’t picture these kids with guns in their hands and fighting.

  18. Phoenix says:

    3b,
    Just warming up for the work week.

    Watching my comrades here in America all out in the streets, not on the same page, messing up businesses, it’s annoying. No one on the same page, no one out to help each other.

    Chinese on Alibaba sold me a 10 dollar paint thickness detector. Shipped. Helped me when a lying American tried to sell me a car that was in an accident, she said she was the only owner and it had never been hit.

    Next time use more of the Bondo on your face, Princess. It might have covered up the lie better. And my Chinese detector wouldn’t have picked it up.

    Thanks again, China.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Channeling my inner Phoenix:

    China knows the USA is a massive coronary waiting to happen.

  20. Phoenix says:

    3b says:
    December 4, 2023 at 8:20 am
    U Penn students scream for intifada, that is comical. I can’t picture these kids with guns in their hands and fighting.

    How about these guys?

    And for some reason voters, who also dodged the draft, wanted cowardly people like themselves in office. So Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, George W, Cheney, Donald Trump, Schumer, McConnell, and all the Congressional leadership are draft dodgers.

  21. Phoenix says:

    I’d bet they will be fighting long before a Trump, Biden, Pelosi, or McConnell family member does.

    That’s a sure bet.

  22. Phoenix says:

    And our kids can’t make change from a dollar, how will they ever be able to do things like this?

    Interesting channel by the way, I dedicate this to you, Pumpy, no work from home here!

    https://youtu.be/24ehoo6RX8w?t=145

  23. BRT says:

    Phoenix, I posted about this yesterday. We were planning on going to Mike Solomonov’s restaurant Zahav in Philly. Been eyeing it up for years. We put it off because we didn’t need a bunch of college kids showing up and ruining a dinner that we were going to shell out hundreds of dollars for. I thought it was a longshot that they actually would protest at one of his places but sure enough, it’s labeled “Israeli cuisine”, so they must be guilty of something in these defunct minds. What ever happened to punching nazi’s?

  24. BRT says:

    This country handed the keys to China willingly 25 years ago. It’s over. They have the entire supply chain outside of chips.

  25. Phoenix says:

    BRT,
    Everything is a battle. Even going out to eat. Parking a car. It’s all nuts. You can’t trust anyone anymore, just watch this:

    https://youtu.be/Zk99NofbLVQ?t=236

  26. BRT says:

    U Penn students scream for intifada, that is comical. I can’t picture these kids with guns in their hands and fighting.

    A generation that had the luxury of father’s who weren’t drafted into war. They think it’s a game. If you look at TikTok videos of kids in the military, they all look like they are at a day camp.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Phoenix – Press made a big deal about Elon telling Bob Iger to go F-himself.

    Bigger interview at Sorkin’s Dealbook last week was conference was Jensen Huang when he spoke about AI. He said we will never have our own chip supply chain independence it will take as long as 20 years.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlUbILOx70Q

  28. Phoenix says:

    BRT says:
    December 4, 2023 at 8:46 am
    This country handed the keys to China willingly 25 years ago. It’s over. They have the entire supply chain outside of chips.

    Don’t worry, they will get that as well. And yes, boomer handed it over to them in order to profit in the stock market. Now boomer has the last TCL tv he will ever need to watch Trump or Biden on.

    TSMC came about because “manufacturing” chips wasn’t where the profit was, so dump that off to the “slaves” across the ocean, and make the big money for yourself.

    Yeah, till you need that f’n mask, ventilator, or chip. Now they have you by the nutsack like Pumpy’s wife.

    Americans profited by addicting their youth to social media, and now, legalizing more drugs for them to anesthetize themselves. I guess if you are high enough you won’t care that Boomer made houses unaffordable for you.

    Get high and live your “American dream,” you will need to be asleep or else it will disappear.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It literally makes me sick to my stomach. Hard pill to swallow.

    Phoenix says:
    December 4, 2023 at 7:43 am
    Pumpy, the anti-work-from-home teacher wins the Real Estate forum prize with one line:

    Buy now or be priced out forever.

    If it weren’t for his wife, he might be the richest guy on the forum. The Real Estate forum.

    Can’t win ’em all. Just jack up the rent and take the wife to the Capitol Grille on the weekend.

    Pumpy, you came so close. Like a lotto ticket holder without the powerball. Too bad she had it gripped tightly in her hand and was squeezing it. Hopefully one day it doesn’t get clean ripped off.

  30. Phoenix says:

    Why should they care? Fathers? Why should they fight for Boomer who jokes about putting “Chex Mix” on the front yard for them?

    That is not really the joke Eddie thinks it is, there are plenty who really do think that way. I have some great kids I am training, but the mess boomer created for them is taking the wind out of their sails.

    Go to war? F’n weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist?

    These kids are seeing the truth. Censorship, book burning, racism, crooked politicians and police. All boomer products, its all out there to see.

    I don’t blame them.

    Why legalize pot in NJ, come on, tell the truth. Government profits, business profits-that’s why. No other reason. Well, like everything else, there will be a cost.

    That cost might be your kid’s life when you get t-boned at an intersection. Hey, you made money, it’s all good.

    BRT says:
    December 4, 2023 at 8:53 am
    U Penn students scream for intifada, that is comical. I can’t picture these kids with guns in their hands and fighting.

    A generation that had the luxury of father’s who weren’t drafted into war. They think it’s a game. If you look at TikTok videos of kids in the military, they all look like they are at a day camp.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    lmao…we r f’ed.

    Phoenix says:
    December 4, 2023 at 8:39 am
    And our kids can’t make change from a dollar, how will they ever be able to do things like this?

    Interesting channel by the way, I dedicate this to you, Pumpy, no work from home here!

    https://youtu.be/24ehoo6RX8w?t=145

  32. Phoenix says:

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 4, 2023 at 9:10 am
    lmao…we r f’ed.

    You aren’t. But your students are.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Interesting!

    grim says:
    December 4, 2023 at 6:24 am
    “If you redesign a chip around a particular cut line that enables them to do AI, I’m going to control it the very next day,” she said, in a speech. 1/3 $NVDA #semiconductors

    If you’ve been following GPU prices on eBay, which have been going UP, rather significantly, one of the supposed reasons for this is offshore purchase of gaming and business GPU by China entities willing to pay an absurd premium.

    There are also some rumors of companies removing the GPUs from consumer grade hardware and soldering them into much more capable (higher ram) boards.

    When you think about how many GPUs were purchased to support the Crypto boom, should come as no surprise that there is plenty of availability of high end compute.

    NVIDIA’s 40## line can hold a candle to the newer datacenter GPUs, especially considering the most advanced are unavailable at nearly any price.

  34. 3b says:

    Phoenix: I am a big supporter of the younger generations, and believe they have been screwed by the boomers in so many respects. I have been saying it for years. But, here is another take, there was an article in Business Insider the other day about Millenials feeling isolated and alone, as their parents are not there on demand to babysit. They interviewed one boomer couple and their Millenials married daughter with kids, for their respective perspectives. The boomer couple retired to Mexico, and the Millenials daughter while saying she understands etc, is having trouble accepting they are not available when she needs them on demand to babysit. The boomer couple said they have given a lot over the years, including money and now it’s their turn, and it’s ok for them to say no. They also said Millenial couples have Nanny’s and expensive SUVs while they drive a mini van in their day. The Millenial daughter said since she does not have her parents on demand to babysit, she recently had to tell friends she could not go on vacation to Costa Rica as her parents could not babysit. Boomer parents said they still make time for their kids/ grandkids, but with Millenials Everything has to be scheduled, no down time just to hang out with the family. It goes on a little more back and forth and the article also addresses the fact that Millenials are marrying and having kids later, and Boomers are older now than in the past, and not up to babysitting all the time. I also saw something a few weeks ago about a record amount of Millenials are on anxiety drugs.

  35. grim says:

    You could have gotten Nvidia RTX A6000 (48gb) GPUs for roughly $3k all day long on eBay 6 months ago.

    Now, they are hovering around $4k, sometimes even more.

    You could have picked up a dozen of these mid summer and flipped them all for a nice profit.

  36. Libturd says:

    Pumps. Way back in January of 2006, I planned to subscribe to the Chipotle Mexican Grill IPO. I did all my research. I knew they spun off of McDonalds, the king of fast food. Their CEO was the patient type. Wanted to perfect growth rather than over expand. We were also lucky enough to have a CMG across the street from my workplace on Varick. Everyday, I watched thousands of average Joes spend $12 on a burrito and a drink. The line would actually wrap around the block from 11:30 to about 2:30pm. I never saw anything like it besides the original Halal Guys cart in midtown. Of course, the problem there was how few they could actually serve since it was a tiny cart. Not even a food truck. At Chipotle, the line never stopped moving due to the assembly line setup of the ordering and pickup. There was no way this IPO was going to fail. The problem was, I just spent a ton of my savings on the 20% downpayment on our multifamily home plus another 75K in improvements. I only had that money mostly from turning 25K into 125K in the tech bubble and what Gator brought to the kitty.

    The original IPO called for a minimum of 75K, which is almost all I had left . As the IPO approached, they kept raising the minimum until it was out of my price range ($125K). It also meant all of my eggs would have been in one basket as well.

    Had I held all of my shares, I would have $12 million dollars today.

    For what it’s worth, I did purchase about $25K worth of shares at the open ($44) and sold most of them between 150K and 300K. I also doubled my money on CMG a couple of other times when it pulled back. I haven’t been in it since the P/E has been fluctuating between 50 and 100 for the past decade.

  37. Juice Box says:

    Same story different “product” producing tons of CO2. Where is the Left complaining about all this carbon?

    Gaming GPUs had a long long run of price gouging in the secondary markets
    Then coin mining the NVIDA GPUs were the only ones effective (profitable) at mining Ethereum ran the prices up sky high as the coin mining gold rush hysteria, that ended with the Ethereum merge on in Sept 2022 when millions of mining rigs could no longer make a profit flipping mined Ethereum . People dumping tens of thousands in savings cashing in 401ks stealing money from grandma to build and run homegrown mining rigs, mining farms sprang up wherever the electricity was cheaper. Custom ASIC chips made for Bitcoin. Millions of rigs around the world pumping out CO2 at alarming rates during the crypto gold rush.

    No it’s AI driving these GPUs sky high as it’s become a nation state AI arms race, with governments spending tens of billions now annually to get an edge in AI performance.

    Jensen Huang and the rest of the Chip supply chain are getting very very rich that is for sure.

  38. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Wow, that’s tough pill to swallow. You were so close to the lotto ticket. Great story.

    I really hope I finally make it to the promise land this decade…we will see. Have 6 years to make it happen. Just hurts, I already made home run calls, but wifey gets in the way. What can you do.

    Libturd says:
    December 4, 2023 at 10:02 am
    Pumps. Way back in January of 2006, I planned to subscribe to the Chipotle Mexican Grill IPO. I did all my research. I knew they spun off of McDonalds, the king of fast food. Their CEO was the patient type. Wanted to perfect growth rather than over expand. We were also lucky enough to have a CMG across the street from my workplace on Varick. Everyday, I watched thousands of average Joes spend $12 on a burrito and a drink. The line would actually wrap around the block from 11:30 to about 2:30pm. I never saw anything like it besides the original Halal Guys cart in midtown. Of course, the problem there was how few they could actually serve since it was a tiny cart. Not even a food truck. At Chipotle, the line never stopped moving due to the assembly line setup of the ordering and pickup. There was no way this IPO was going to fail. The problem was, I just spent a ton of my savings on the 20% downpayment on our multifamily home plus another 75K in improvements. I only had that money mostly from turning 25K into 125K in the tech bubble and what Gator brought to the kitty.

    The original IPO called for a minimum of 75K, which is almost all I had left . As the IPO approached, they kept raising the minimum until it was out of my price range ($125K). It also meant all of my eggs would have been in one basket as well.

    Had I held all of my shares, I would have $12 million dollars today.

    For what it’s worth, I did purchase about $25K worth of shares at the open ($44) and sold most of them between 150K and 300K. I also doubled my money on CMG a couple of other times when it pulled back. I haven’t been in it since the P/E has been fluctuating between 50 and 100 for the past decade.

  39. Very Stable Genius says:

    Them cops mostly vote trump.

    The U.S. Justice Department is investigating claims of gender and racial discrimination at the New Jersey State Police.

    By Tracey Tully
    Photographs by Hannah Yoon
    Dec. 4, 2023

  40. Juice Box says:

    UnStable – Govenor Murphy’s wife Tammy refused to let a top ranking woman state trooper pump milk over at their Navesink River estate while guarding the Murphy family. That woman Trooper was reassigned and disciplined..

    Read about the lawsuit before claiming they are Trump supporters. This one is going to cost $$$$$$ to settle. There are no women top cops in the NJ State Troopers.

  41. leftwing says:

    “I would rather run my old car another 5 years than spend my life cutting coupons.”

    RentLord meet 21st century…21st century, RentLord.

    Local chain I only BOGO…their app is on my phone, their circular automatically updates weekly. Push notification on the app of what I frequently buy that is on-sale, and a separate BOGO icon. I scroll down and tap, items go on My List in the app. If there are additional manufacturer discounts those are auto-added. Every so often (like the Fuel Rewards app) they dump five or ten bucks off my total purchase just because, I guess.

    The My List on my phone when I walk into the store is sorted by aisle so I whiz right through. With thumbnails if I don’t know what the exact product looks like.

    Did a quick check on some current items, Natures Valley and Triscuit, I’m getting them cheaper than Walmart+ but the real benny is that the time I spend making my list and actually shopping is minimized…plus I don’t have to deal with the horror show of the big box stores – getting to one of their fewer locations, parking, and dealing with the lowlife masses that make me feel like I need to shower every time I leave.

    On the coupon lady, I got paid $9 to take $35 of soup for free. That delta is an oil change. For taking a photo of a receipt and uploading it.

    I need a new toothbrush, seems coupon lady is telling me a couple taps on my CVS app and I will walk out with four for free and they will pay me $2. For turning right into a parking lot for a store I pass every day on my way home….

  42. No One says:

    BRT,
    I ordered and prepared the Zahav lamb shoulder meal kit last year, and it was pretty good. But I think I got a discount that took the cost below $200. I see $299 right now which seems a bit much, though it could easily serve 8-10 IMO.
    I’d try it again if they discounted it again.

  43. Phoenix says:

    Must be the trace BC hormones in the water, the men are on here discussing cutting coupons.

    Next it will be Travis Kelce picking out bridesmaid dresses. Hehe..

    leftwing says:
    December 4, 2023 at 11:29 am
    “I would rather run my old car another 5 years than spend my life cutting coupons.”

    RentLord meet 21st century…21st century, RentLord.

  44. Phoenix says:

    “On the coupon lady, I got paid $9 to take $35 of soup for free. That delta is an oil change. For taking a photo of a receipt and uploading it.”

    Please tell me you are doing your own oil change. I need to have faith in my fellow man that there is still some testosterone left in America.

  45. leftwing says:

    “Now they have you by the nutsack like Pumpy’s wife.”

    Gotta lay off Pumpy’s wife, she’s paid her dues cohabitating with him for a decade plus…

    “The original IPO called for a minimum of 75K, which is almost all I had left…”

    Pro hack….no way in hell a retail investor, especially one with just $75k, ever gets filled at that level on an IPO…similar opportunity presents itself again you put an order in at the share level and while you will likely get carved back 90% or better you will get filled on some shares…

    “I also saw something a few weeks ago about a record amount of Millenials are on anxiety drugs.”

    Hottest meme in my trading group seems to be ‘sad millennial’. Dude looks suicidal, frankly.

  46. leftwing says:

    “Please tell me you are doing your own oil change. I need to have faith in my fellow man that there is still some testosterone left in America.”

    Sorry, in the words of the inimitable Bob Dylan, it ain’t me babe.

  47. Libturd says:

    Phoenix,

    The problem with doing your own oil change is that you really don’t save enough money to make it worth while. Though, if you are not changing your own air filter, cabin air filter, battery, lights, key fob battery and wiper blades, then you are getting completely screwed. All of these things take less than 5 minutes each to perform and are marked up tremendously.

  48. Phoenix says:

    “I also saw something a few weeks ago about a record amount of millennials are on anxiety drugs.”

    I see something every day, patients charts. Boomer’s wife has been on “anxiety drugs” long before millennials were born.

    “Now they have you by the nutsack like Pumpy’s wife.”

    Gotta lay off Pumpy’s wife, she’s paid her dues cohabitating with him for a decade plus…

    Not worried about her, she will get half of his pension. Guess that’s worth something should she ever decide to bail.

  49. leftwing says:

    Yeah, but she out earns him by far so he will be PPR and get the alimony/child support.

    Think I said this years ago, he’s Forrest Gump.

  50. Libturd says:

    The cabin air filter is the best. Few people know it, but there is a little door in your glove box. Slide the old $7 filter out and slide in a new one. Takes 10 seconds. Go look what your dealer charges. Probably $75 to $100. You can get top of the line wiper blades that will last a full year before getting streaky for about $20 if you wait for the right sales at auto parts stores or Walmart. Heck, I’ve been buying Walmart Everstart car batteries for the past 20 years. Every battery has lasted over 5 years. I’ve paid between $60 and $120 for all of them.

    Go anywhere else and you will pay $160 minimum for an inferior battery.

  51. Phoenix says:

    Lib,
    It pays. You know what you are getting.

    Had a dealer put the wrong oil in my brand new car.

    Can’t trust anyone.

  52. BRT says:

    I showed my 11 year old son how to replace the Cabin air filter the other day. He responded “people actually pay money for this?”

  53. 3b says:

    Phoenix: As for the anxiety medicine, just telling you what I read , I don’t recall any boomers I know ever saying they were on anxiety medicine, but then again people were less into sharing personal issues than the younger generation, not a criticism either way, just an observation. Alcohol was an issue though, that’s for sure.

  54. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Slide the old $7 filter out and slide in a new one.”

    Or 20 seconds with an air line and reinstall as we used to do it in the old country.

    My local dealer is now $60-70 for a synthetic oil change depending on the coupon. Its $40 for a filter an a jug of Mobil-One. I have a box of filters in my garage as the service department was doing a buy 3 get 1 free sale for some reason.
    The last time I went to a 10 Minute place, the minivan needed half an engine rebuild. Luckily it was still under warranty. I paid for synthetic, but suspect I got dino. Would never trust those places again.

  55. Libturd says:

    Phoenix,

    There are some trustworthy places to get your oil changed. Once you find one, you’ll stay there for life. I am developing an excellent relationship with a local Valvoline Express change shop in Bloomfield. With a coupon, the oil change and full service car wash runs $50. They also report all service to CarFax which is nice if you are ever going to sell the car. Car Fax will send you service reminders too. They are great for breaks too.

  56. leftwing says:

    Nice day in the market for me Lib, new ATHs again…

    UHAL that I put on less than four weeks ago pops 2% today, up 12% total in less than a month.

    ALKS that went on two and half weeks ago up 8%.

    And the SPY shorts with the RSP long seems to be working nicely…short down 0.7% today, long flat. Happy, got to a nice pairs trade unintentionally.

    You hop on any brother?

    I may pull back from here except RSP…still watching the lines I threw out here last week or so…market has not yet made up its mind…we go through 450 – only 1.25% down from here – and I can see this thing rolling and filling that gap at 440. Right now, just day by day until she makes up her mind…

    Kind of pissed I didn’t have time to make it around to some of the ‘dogs’ from last week….JNJ up 4% in less than a week, etc.

  57. BRT says:

    I’m really big into eating a food and reverse engineering it. Zahav actually has a cookbook that looks great. I never thought to use Pomegranate Molasses to marinate lamb but sounds good. There’s an amazing Middle Eastern Market on Rt 1 on The North/South Brunswick border, Bereket. They have all you need there to do it up.

  58. Fast Eddie says:

    I’m really big into eating a food and reverse engineering it.

    I’ll take the Digestive System for $200, Alex.

  59. leftwing says:

    That lamb shoulder looks delicious…

    “You can get top of the line wiper blades that will last a full year before getting streaky for about $20 if you wait for the right sales at auto parts stores or Walmart.”

    Got top of line RainX likely at that price less than two years ago, still had OEM on up to then (for four years). My super-duper RainX separated, auto supply stores want $30+ now…bought low end RainX from Amazon on Black Monday, five bucks each. Figure I won’t replace them six times in the next 24 months…

    Oil, I’m very happy with Goodyear but as noted everything is local, shop by shop…

  60. BRT says:

    heh, no you wouldn’t. When you eat the food I cook, all your digestive problems magically go away.

  61. leftwing says:

    “Next it will be Travis Kelce picking out bridesmaid dresses.”

    Phoenix, you think our blue eye, blonde nutcases are off the charts?

    Good luck to Travis. That is one big pile of craziness he is messing with…not even near worth it.

  62. Fast Eddie says:

    BRT,

    Reverse engineering food simply sounds like shatting out whatever was consumed a few hours ago. ;)

  63. 3b says:

    Left: I am happy with my Goodyear place, and for tune ups they guarantee for specific mileage( which I forget at the moment). I went to a local guy for years, turns out he was shady, and I will leave it at that. Went to another local guy, crappy work, so I left him too.

  64. chicagofinance says:

    Creative? Maybe at taking IP and replicating it. The ferocity of the entrepreneurial spirit in the U.S. is only matched by the ferocity of the Chinese to steal from it.

    That culture is amazing. The graft is so entrenched that it is treated as a matter-of-fact business practice. The cultural expectation to conform is also substantial.

    Of course we need to fear the Chinese, but they are an inferior culture with a centrally planned command and control society. Our hopeless mess is vastly superior to anything over there forever.

    If you for a minute think otherwise, then you are willfully ignorant, FlabMax, or else don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

    Phoenix says:
    December 4, 2023 at 8:04 am
    Chinese are creative, smart, and really, really, really hardworking people that are going to keep coming after you like an army of ants.

    Keep messing with them economically, the gloves just might come off.

  65. No One says:

    Chifi,
    China is increasingly steered by a “great helmsman” but I’d call it more a fascist economy than a socialist one. Doesn’t make it less a threat, but cannot count on it to fail of its own accord. More dangerous, like Germany 1930s. The one thing China won’t pursue is welfare statism. Those who don’t work don’t eat, and yes they work hard at stealing IP, but they work hard generally. Many work morning till late at night, work on Saturdays too, just as the kids also generally go to school 6 days a week.
    It is a messed up society, still Confucian in its obedience to authority and willingness to sacrifice the individual to the collective. This effort and respect for learning is why Chinese immigrants can excel in the US.

  66. Phoenix says:

    Just tax the middle class some more. Hey they won’t mind after paying 9 dollars for a jar of mayonnaise.

    White House budget director Shalanda Young warned in a letter on Monday to Republican House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson and other congressional leaders that the United States was running out of time and money to help Ukraine fight its war with Russia.

    Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration in October asked Congress for nearly $106 billion to fund ambitious plans for Ukraine, Israel and U.S. border security.

  67. Hold my beer says:

    Who needs money when you have credit?

  68. 3b says:

    Rate cuts next year, all will be good again.

  69. LAX says:

    Lib you are a baller either way bro.

  70. Fat Fuk Fast Eddie says:

    Hey they won’t mind after paying 9 dollars for a jar of mayonnaise.

    Especially Boomers as they ride up and down the grocery aisles in their motorized handicap scooters. Cannot do without that mayo!

  71. Fast Eddie says:

    Here’s more in the summer:

    https://tinyurl.com/5b6h9uf7

  72. Fast Eddie says:

    I meant me. lol

  73. Libturd says:

    That dude in the stock photo thinks he’s a model.

  74. Libturd says:

    If by baller, you are referring to my enlarged prostate that makes me piss every two hours between midnight and six in the morning? Then I accept your praise.

  75. 3b says:

    Goldman dumping its consumer lending business, including now the Apple Card. In my day there they never would have gotten into the business in the first place.I knew it would be a failure from the begining.

    I also knew that UBS would dump the muni underwriting business when they announced a few years ago they were getting back into it.

  76. Juice Box says:

    3B – Other way around. Apple is dumping them. gave them an easy out according to most reports.

    It’s not like Apple isn’t a Hedge Fund masquerading as a smart phone and tablet maker. They should just buy their own bank to run their own credit card and loan sharking business already.

  77. Chicago says:

    Urethra management my friend. Shave the prostate to create a bigger channel, or else staple the bitch wider.

    Back to the salt mines.

    Libturd says:
    December 4, 2023 at 3:01 pm
    If by baller, you are referring to my enlarged prostate that makes me piss every two hours between midnight and six in the morning? Then I accept your praise

  78. 3b says:

    Juice: I know, but ultimately GS would have dumped it too I believe. The old GS of my day never would have done it in the first place. Lots of partners back then also did not want to go public, said the firm would never be the same, and I believe they were right. They had big passive investors who were willing to invest in the company, no questions asked. Not how it turned out of course, but there were some epic battles. Nothing ever made it to the financial press in those days for whatever reason/s.

  79. BRT says:

    It’s not just IP theft. A larger part is subsidies. China will deliberately subsidize industries so that their product comes in at below the cost of materials for some domestic operation we have rendering them useless and forcing us to go through them for production absent any sanctions. They essentially corner any industry they want.

  80. Libturd says:

    I would consider shaving my prostate, but I already had that scope put up my pickle. Definitely, the most uncomfortable procedure I’ve ever had, numbing cream and all. To make matters worse, my urologist decided to give me a scenic tour of my urinary tract. I was absolutely dying and he was intentionally moving slowly to explain every friggin’ detail. Worst of all, I had no warning it was coming until about 15 minutes before. He said it was better off that way since it would have given me unnecessary anxiety. He was definitely right. Well, maybe not the unnecessary part.

  81. Juice Box says:

    BRT – Yes subsidized production to undercut all competitors. They require regulatory review to enter their market and demand proprietary information, and then proceed to infringe on any patents and weaponize antitrust to “coerce” technology transfer.

    You can bet right now every single ASML employee is being spied on. They will not stop until they get the secret sauce. Exactly how how ASML’s photolithography machines work is one of of the most stringently guarded corporate secrets in the world.

  82. leftwing says:

    “Urethra management my friend.”

    https://youtu.be/nw80XoQfsWQ?si=C75McAZBdSYCPqPO

  83. LAX says:

    3:01 that was actually not what meant. But I’ve noticed a move towards men’s health on the blog.

  84. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Billionaire Citadel founder Ken Griffin says employers won’t go the ‘extra distance’ to keep hybrid workers on the payroll: ‘It’s an email to all… and goodbye

    https://fortune.com/2023/11/15/ken-griffin-citadel-ceo-hybrid-remote-work-layoff-fears

  85. Juice Box says:

    Lib – I sent you an email.

  86. Phoenix says:

    Ruh Roh.

    Venezuelans approve referendum to claim sovereignty over an oil-rich area of Guyana
    The International Court of Justice had ordered Venezuela not to take any action that would alter Guyana’s control over Essequibo.

  87. Juice Box says:

    Pumps Citadel 425 park ave anchor tenant….

    BTW Griffin out out Miami, Florida

  88. 3b says:

    The Oxford Dictionary has crowned Rizz as the 2023 word of the year. A Gen Z expression meaning sexual attractiveness.

  89. chicagofinance says:

    Last week I suffered a pair of TMI moments when I learned more about prostate/urethra procedures in 48 hours than in an entire previous lifetime. Unrelated actually…… both men were 70-ish.

    LAX says:
    December 4, 2023 at 4:35 pm
    3:01 that was actually not what meant. But I’ve noticed a move towards men’s health on the blog.

  90. Fast Eddie says:

    The Oxford Dictionary has crowned Rizz as the 2023 word of the year. A Gen Z expression meaning sexual attractiveness.

    Stupid kids, it should be called jizz.

  91. 3b says:

    Fast: I was thinking the same thing!

  92. Phoenix says:

    Hehe

    Hold my beer says:
    December 4, 2023 at 2:10 pm
    Who needs money when you have credit?

  93. Phoenix says:

    Hey it’s just a 22 french resectoscope. Not like you have to go to the gynecologist, get pap smears, birth control, and change tampons every month.

    chicagofinance says:
    December 4, 2023 at 7:44 pm
    Last week I suffered a pair of TMI moments when I learned more about prostate/urethra procedures in 48 hours than in an entire previous lifetime. Unrelated actually…… both men were 70-ish.

    LAX says:
    December 4, 2023 at 4:35 pm
    3:01 that was actually not what meant. But I’ve noticed a move towards men’s health on the blog.

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