If high taxes mean no jobs, why has NY recovered?

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. has worst business tax climate in U.S., study finds

New Jersey’s high property and income taxes contribute to its standing as the nation’s least attractive tax climate for businesses, according to a Washington tax policy group’s annual ranking of the 50 states.

The Tax Foundation, a public policy group that has two former Republican lawmakers on its board of directors, considered five metrics, including corporate, individual income, sales, unemployment and property taxes to arrive at an overall rank. New Jersey ranks dead last — a distinction the Garden State has had since at least 2013.

“New Jersey… is hampered by some of the highest property tax burdens in the country, is one of the two states to levy both an inheritance tax and estate tax, and maintains some of the worst-structured individual incomes in the country,” according to the study.

With average homeowner property tax bills exceeding $8,000, New Jersey ranks 50 of 50 on property taxes. New Jersey doesn’t fare much better in a comparison of individual income and sales taxes, registering at 48 and 47, respectively.

It climbs a few spots up to 43 in the ranking of corporate business taxes. But the state’s best showing , 31st, is on the unemployment insurance tax.

The left-leaning Trenton think tank, NJ Police Perspective, said in a statement that “business tax climate” shouldn’t be confused with “business climate,” noting that New York ranked one slot higher than New Jersey but has “recovered from the recession with gusto.”

Posted in Housing Recovery, Politics, Property Taxes | 97 Comments

NJ Tax Machine Rolls On

From the APP:

Property tax relief? Not in sight in NJ (Warning annoying autoplay video)

Tax relief doesn’t appear to be on the way anytime soon for New Jersey residents — in fact, top state lawmakers meeting here Wednesday spent much of the time talking about how to raise revenue.

During a panel discussion, the officials agreed that the New Jersey’s highest-in-the-nation property tax is a concern, but they focused much of the discussion at potentially raising a different tax.

Democrats on the panel said replenishing the state’s transportation trust fund is the top issue facing the Legislature and that hiking the gasoline tax is an option to address it.

“All we’re talking about is raising taxes. But first why don’t we talk about some tax that we can lower?’’ said Republican Assembly leader Jon Bramnick.

Democrats increased their advantage in the 80-seat Assembly in elections earlier this month. Outrage over New Jersey’s $8,200-average property taxes prompted nearly 14,000 people to sign an Asbury Park Press petition in the weeks leading to the vote demanding that top elected officials commit to a plan for a 10 percent property tax cut by year’s end.

Many who signed the petition included handwritten notes complaining of their inability to keep up with the staggering tax burden in the Garden State.

Many lawmakers — mostly Republicans — also signed a pledge to cut the property tax, after a Press investigation showed how property taxes increase by some $540 million annually, even with a 2 percent tax cap in place.

“Too many of our relatives are being taxed out of the state,’’ Kean said. “Too many of our friends and neighbors are moving out of the state and we need to have as our primary focus, hopefully in lame duck but also in the upcoming session (beginning in Janurary), understanding what is making the state so unaffordable.’’

Bramnick said he’d rather focus on having the state’s school-funding formula retooled “to something that’s more fair, because (much of the school funding budget of) $9 billion of our $34 billion budget goes to a limited number of school districts, and much of that money has not created success.”

“It’s time to take it away from the courts and do a constitutional amendment and make it more fair. That’s how you reduce property taxes in many of our towns and cities,’’ he said.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 139 Comments

Hardly making progress…

From the Record:

Foreclosure crisis easing in NJ, but state still leads the nation in housing distress

New Jersey continues to lead the nation in mortgage distress and foreclosure activity, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Tuesday.

One in eight – about 12.7 percent – of mortgage holders in the Garden State were either late on their monthly payments or in the foreclosure process during the third quarter, the MBA said. But that number is down from 15 percent in the same period last year, as lenders continue to chip away at a backlog of distressed properties that built up in the foreclosure pipeline after the housing crash.

“There is some chance that we are finally turning the corner on this,” said Charles Steindel, an economist at Ramapo College and former chief economist for Governor Christie.

Nationally, the level of housing distress in the third quarter was at its lowest level since 2007, before the 2007-2009 recession. Nationwide, 7 percent of mortgages were either in foreclosure or at least one payment past due.

New Jersey has lagged the nation in solving the foreclosure crisis because it is among about two dozen states where foreclosures go through the courts, which tends to slow the process. In addition, the state is still catching up after a near-freeze on foreclosure activity several years ago, as the mortgage industry dealt with accusations that it was abusing homeowners’ rights.

Posted in Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 43 Comments

Zillow liberates data, dirty Realtors fight back

From HousingWire:

Here is the latest Realtor.com attack aimed at Zillow

Realtor.com’s latest attack at Zillow Group (ZG) took it to the streets, removing a house from the residential block by wrapping it in what they say is a real-life analogy of homes that Zillow users are missing out on.

The online real estate listing service wrapped a home that is currently on the market in Austin, Texas and brokered by GoodLife Realty.

The words “Searching for a home to buy on Zillow? You’re missing out on thousands like this” are inscribed on the wrapping, which will stay up until Nov. 14.

This is a part of realtor.com’s recent campaign against Zillow, with this particular advertisement trying to shows how realtor.com lists many more MLS-listed, for-sale homes than its main competitor.

In light of the campaign, Realtor.com conducted an internal analysis in October, which said realtor.com provides at least 20% more – or an estimated 300,000 more – MLS-listed homes among its for-sale listings nationwide than Zillow.com.

However, in response, Zillow’s spokesperson Amanda Woolley cautioned in a statement, “Anyone can selectively pull data to tell the story they want to tell.”

“The fact is, Zillow and Trulia listings breadth is more comprehensive and accurate than it has ever been, with more than 350 direct MLS partnerships signed in just the past year,” according to the statement.

“And the Zillow brand continues to be the most favored consumer brand by far, with more than half of all real estate category visits coming to Zillow, which is nearly double the size the nearest competitor,” Woolley added.

Posted in Humor, Unrest | 115 Comments

The HELOC is back!

From the NYT:

Cashing in on Home Equity

Rising home prices are raising equity levels, and homeowners are cashing in on these gains.

In the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of single-family homes and condominiums reached the highest level since the same period in 2006, according to RealtyTrac, a provider of property data. Homeowners who sold during the third quarter also reaped the highest price gain in eight years — an average of 17 percent over their purchase price, or $40,658.

Other data shows that homeowners are taking advantage of rising values by refinancing their mortgages in order to cash out a portion of their equity.

The group of homeowners that RealtyTrac categorizes as “equity rich,” meaning they have at least 50 percent equity in their homes, has been increasing over all, said Daren Blomquist, a vice president of RealtyTrac.

But in the third quarter, the share declined from the quarter before, to 19.2 percent of all homeowners with a mortgage from 19.6 percent. The group with less than 50 percent equity, however, grew, while the ranks of those with negative equity shrank.

“What that tells me,” Mr. Blomquist said, “is that people are either selling and moving into a bigger home, or refinancing it and leveraging some of that equity, so they don’t have as much equity in the home as they did before.”

Refinancing activity in general has risen in recent months, as interest rates have remained low. In September, refinanced loans represented 42 percent of lenders’ loan volume, according to Ellie Mae, a software provider for the mortgage industry. That was a 5 percent increase over August, and the highest level since May.

In many mid- to high-end housing markets, rising home prices have made it difficult for existing homeowners to move up, said Norman T. Koenigsberg, the president and chief executive of First Choice Loan Services in East Brunswick, N.J. As an alternative, he said, “families are tapping into their equity to improve their homes, either as a long-term strategy or to enable them to resell it sooner at a greater profit.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, Risky Lending | 80 Comments

Foreclosures Jump in October

From HousingWire:

RealtyTrac: Foreclosure starts post highest jump in more than four years

Foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 115,134 U.S. properties in October, up 6% from the previous month. This is still down 6% from a year ago, the latest RealtyTrac Foreclosure Market Report for October 2015 showed.

The rise was caused primarily by a 12% monthly jump in foreclosure starts, with 48,605 properties starting the foreclosure process for the first time in October.

This increase marks the largest month-over-month increase since August 2011, when there was a 24% month-over-month increase. Despite the month-over-month increase, foreclosure starts in October were still down 14% from a year ago.

While this increase isn’t a giant surprise, it did exceed expectations.

“We’ve seen a seasonal increase in foreclosure starts in October for the past five consecutive years, so it’s not too surprising to see the monthly increase this October,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

“However, the 12% increase this October is more than double the average 5% monthly increase in the past five Octobers, and the even more dramatic monthly increases in some states is certainly a concern. The upward trend in foreclosure starts in those states in some cases could be an indication of fissures in economic fundamentals driving more distress and in other cases is more likely an indication of long-term delinquencies finally entering the foreclosure pipeline,” he added.

Broken up, October foreclosure starts increased from the previous month in 34 states, including California (up 21%), Florida (up 13%), New Jersey (up 15%), Illinois (up 20%), Maryland (up 300%), Washington (up 34%), and Michigan (up 37%).

New Jersey accounted for 7,559 properties receiving a foreclosure filing in October, a foreclosure rate of one in every 471 housing units. While the state’s foreclosure activity is down 4% from the previous month, it is still up 87% from a year ago.

Recently, Sens. Cory Booker, D-NJ, and Robert Menendez, D-NJ, sent a letter to the heads of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Federal Reserve Board, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and others, saying that the prevalence of zombie foreclosures in the state is seriously impacting the state’s residents and its economy, and they want to know what the federal regulators are going to do about it.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 91 Comments

Warm up the bulldozers!

From the WSJ:

Hudson River Rail Tunnel Project Takes Another Step Forward

An emerging plan to dig two new Hudson River rail tunnels came into sharper focus on Wednesday as state and congressional leaders outlined a plan to fund and manage the project.

Under an agreement announced late Wednesday, the project would be managed by a subsidiary of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. That development corporation would be overseen by a four-member board including two representatives of the bistate agency and one each from Amtrak and the U.S. Department of Transportation.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who announced the deal with two U.S. senators, jointly control the authority.

“Our shovels are ready,” Mr. Cuomo said in an interview. “Literally, if you don’t build this tunnel, you would greatly imperil train service.”

Anthony Coscia, Amtrak’s chairman, said the agreement among state and federal leaders marked an encouraging step for Amtrak’s broader Gateway project. “It’s going to be a real turning point,” he said.

The national passenger railroad has struggled to fund big projects, and has warned of a transportation crisis if it must shut down one of its aging two current tunnels between New York and New Jersey.

It remains unclear how the local, state and federal governments will fund the tunnel project in an era of tight budgets. The project is part of the Gateway plan, which early estimates suggest could cost $15 billion to $20 billion.

But the state and congressional officials said the agreement included a commitment by U.S. transportation officials to secure financing for at least half the tunnel project’s costs. In September, the two governors agreed to foot half of the project’s costs if the federal government picked up the rest.

The national passenger railroad has struggled to fund big projects, and has warned of a transportation crisis if it must shut down one of its aging two current tunnels between New York and New Jersey.

It remains unclear how the local, state and federal governments will fund the tunnel project in an era of tight budgets. The project is part of the Gateway plan, which early estimates suggest could cost $15 billion to $20 billion.

But the state and congressional officials said the agreement included a commitment by U.S. transportation officials to secure financing for at least half the tunnel project’s costs. In September, the two governors agreed to foot half of the project’s costs if the federal government picked up the rest.

Posted in Economics, Employment, North Jersey Real Estate | 64 Comments

Christie wants to raise taxes on NJ

From the Star Ledger:

Christie’s new tax plan would cost 40% of N.J. taxpayers an average $16,682 deduction

Gov. Chris Christie wants to do away with a tax break that his state’s residents use more than almost anyone else.

During Tuesday’s Republican presidential debate, Christie talked about his plan to reduce income taxes, including for the top bracket for the richest taxpayers, and keep only the tax breaks for home mortgage interest and charitable deductions.

Gone under Christie’s plan would be the federal deduction for state and local taxes, which New Jersey taxpayers use more than residents of almost any other state.

“That will put more pressure on governors and on local officials not to keep raising those taxes, saying we can deduct them,” Christie said in Milwaukee, where he participated in the preliminary debate after his poll average was too low to qualify for the main stage.

According to Internal Revenue Service statistics, 41.4 percent of New Jersey taxpayers took the state and local tax deduction, which lowered their federal income taxes, in 2013, the last year for which figures were available. Only Maryland and Connecticut had a higher percentage.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 118 Comments

Housing confidence dips in October

From HousingWire:

Fannie Mae: Consumer confidence in housing market fell in October

Consumers’ feelings towards the housing market were weaker in the month of October than they were in September, as some consumers displayed hesitancy to commit to the long-term financial obligation of buying a home, a new survey from Fannie Mae showed.

Released Monday, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index for October 2015 decreased slightly to 83.2 in October as consumers’ volatile outlook on both household income improvement and mortgage interest rates kept housing sentiment relatively flat.

In October, the HPSI Household Income component fell 4 points on net this month and the Good Time to Buy and Good Time to Sell components fell 2 and 6 points, respectively, after picking up in September.

While those number fell in October, signifying weakening confidence in the housing market, the survey results showed that consumers appeared to be less worried about job loss, with the net figure nearing the most favorable reading in the five-year history of Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey.

Additionally, the share of consumers who think mortgage interest rates will go down increased by 4 points on net in October.

“The income growth necessary for renewed momentum in housing market sentiment remains elusive, even though consumers’ confidence in their job security continues to strengthen,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.

“Consumers’ net view on whether their household income has improved over the last year is down once again this month,” Duncan continued.

“Some consumers may be hesitant or unwilling to commit to buying or selling a home without seeing meaningful improvement in their wages and salaries,” Duncan added. “Still, the HPSI remains close to its near all-time high level of the past four years and, given the strong October jobs report, suggests that any cooling in near-term activity, if it occurs, should be moderate.”

Overall, Fannie Mae’s October 2015 Home Purchase Sentiment Index decreased 0.6 percentage points to 83.2 in October following a 3-point increase last month to near its peak level.

The net share of respondents who say they are not concerned with losing their job rose 2 percentage points to 71%, and has risen each month since July. The percent of respondents who are not concerned about losing their job reached an all-time high of 85%.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery | 82 Comments

Where’s the money? Here.

From MarketWatch:

Where’s the money in America? This 3D map will show you

The hardest working states and regions in America? Sorry flyover states, better luck next time. The kings of production remain in the most obvious spots: California, Texas and New York.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Department of Commerce recently pushed out some statistics on gross domestic product in 2014 for the U.S. based on metropolitan areas. The folks at HowMuch.net took that data and turned it into a map that demonstrates just where the growth in the U.S. is coming from. As shown below, the higher the cone rising from the map, the bigger the GDP in that region.

“In analyzing the data, we found that the top 20 metropolitan areas represent over 52% of the total GDP in the U.S.,” said Raul Amoros, director of content development at HowMuch.net.

Spiking right out of the map, was the New York region, which includes Newark and Jersey City., with a whopping contribution of $1.56 trillion in GDP and growth of 2.4% in 2014. That region provided nearly 10% of the total GDP for the whole of the U.S.

Just behind it, the Greater Los Angeles area was second with $866 billion in GDP, with a 2.3% rise over 2013. Third and fourth, respectively, was the Chicago metro area, with $610 billion and growth of 1.8%, and the Houston metro area with $525 billion. Dallas stole the fifth spot with $504 billion.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment | 125 Comments

Hope you locked in your refi

From the Washington Post:

After stellar month for U.S. jobs market, Federal Reserve increasingly likely to raise interest rates

The U.S. job market has almost fully healed from the deep wounds of the Great Recession, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin withdrawing its support for the recovery by the end of the year.

Government data released Friday showed the economy added a blockbuster 271,000 jobs in October — the highest amount so far this year and beyond analysts’ most optimistic forecasts. The unemployment rate dipped to 5 percent, and wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009.

The stellar performance provided reassurance that the American economy can withstand powerful global headwinds, from the slowdown in China to the threat of deflation in Europe. A healthy labor market could also give policymakers at the nation’s central bank the confidence to raise its key interest rate target for the first time in nearly a decade.

“The economy’s course is steady and true,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The reasons for Fed caution and delay are falling to the wayside as this economic expansion is the real deal.”

The probability that the central bank will move at its next meeting in December jumped to nearly 75 percent on Friday, according to futures markets, up from roughly even odds a week ago. Barclays reined in its forecast from March 2016 to December. Famed investor Bill Gross of Janus Capital was unequivocal, telling Bloomberg TV he believes the chances are “almost 100 percent that the yellow light changes in December to bright green.”

The move would mark the beginning of the end of an unprecedented era of easy money that cushioned the American economy during the downturn but has not produced robust growth in the recovery.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, Mortgages | 71 Comments

GSEs failing again?

From HousingWire:

Compass Point: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac will need another bailout

The disappointing third quarter results for Fannie Mae, which saw its net income cut in half, and Freddie Mac, which took a comprehensive loss of $501 million, have many already questioning whether the current financial status of the government-sponsored enterprises is stable.

Richard Bove, vice president of equity research at Rafferty Capital Markets told clients earlier this week that Freddie Mac is “insolvent” and “playing financial games that are not acceptable.”

Others, including the two prominent groups of community lenders and several major civil rights groups are calling for the recapitalization of Fannie and Freddie because the GSEs are in danger of needing another bailout from the government.

New analysis from Compass Point Research & Trading suggests that it’s no longer a question of if the GSEs will need another bailout. Now, it’s simply of a question of when.

In the new Compass Point report, analyst Issac Boltansky writes that Freddie’s loss in the third quarter reduced its total equity from $1.8 billion to $1.3 billion, adding that due to the 3rd Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement requires each GSE to reduce its capital buffer by $600 million a year until hitting $0 in 2018.

“To that end, the potential for the GSEs to take another draw from the U.S. Treasury increases each year as the capital buffers steadily decline to $0 while accounting-related earnings variability persists,” Boltansky writes.” Our view remains that under the current terms of the bailout agreement it is a matter of when, not if, the GSEs will be forced to take another draw.”

Freddie Mac CEO Donald Layton, for his part, told HousingWire earlier this week that he was not concerned about the loss, referring to the loss as “accounting noise.”

“[The loss] is not the real economics going on,” Layton said in a telephone conversation with HousingWire, where he dismissed any accusation of inappropriate risk management. The GSE did grow its single-family guarantee business 50% annually in the third quarter.

In a statement Layton added: “This $0.5 billion loss was caused mainly by the accounting associated with our use of derivatives, whereby the derivatives are marked to market but many of the assets and liabilities being hedged are not.”

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Mortgages, Politics | 108 Comments

Best September Since 2005

From the Otteau Group:

MarketNEWS October 30, 2015

Home purchase demand in New Jersey increased for the 13th consecutive month in September with more than 8,000 home-purchase contracts. This was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of September since 2005, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the same month one year ago.

While we have some concern about a developing slowdown in secondary markets like Camden and Sussex counties, the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates low should act as an accelerant for home sales heading into 2016. Also encouraging, is a 17% increase for homes purchased by first-time buyers this year which will provide broad support for continuing home sales activity for the next year or so.

While home purchase demand continues to rise, the inventory of available homes remains constrained in New Jersey. The number of homes being offered for sale in the month of September declined by more than 1,400 homes (-3%) compared to one year ago. This is about 19,000 (-26%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 6.7 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is less than one year ago when it was 7.9 months.

Currently, 67% of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson, Union, Essex, Somerset, Ocean, and Morris Counties are presently experiencing the strongest market conditions in the state with fewer than 6 months of supply. All of the counties with an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 12 months or greater are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Salem (14.3) and Atlantic (14.6).

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 180 Comments

Bend Over NJ

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. taxes second-worst in U.S., Forbes says

New Jerseyans already know it to be true, but a Forbes analysis of state-by-state tax burdens places the Garden State near the top of its “Worst States for Taxes” list.

New Jersey lands in second place, behind New York, in the comparison of state and local taxes.

Connecticut, California, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont and Pennsylvania round out the top 10, according to the Forbes report.

The analysis compares local taxes and the effective tax rate for single people with $50,000 in reportable income, a figure Forbes said it based on the $53,046 median U.S. Household income from 2009 to 2013.

In New Jersey, which has one of the most progressive tax structures in the country, that income tax rate is 2.54 percent, which Forbes combined with local taxes to establish a 12.3 percent state and local tax burden.

While the report doesn’t specify which local taxes are included (some states have local income taxes or local sales taxes), presumably New Jersey’s steep property taxes had a hand in the state’s ranking. Last year, the average property tax bill here was $8,161, while nationally only 0.2 percent of U.S. homeowners paid more than $8,000.

New Jersey’s income taxes start at 1.4 percent on earnings less than $20,000 and the top marginal tax rate hits 8.97 percent on income over $500,000.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 93 Comments

Bye Bye Bungalow

From the Record:

Three years later, shore’s housing market feels effects of Sandy

Maureen and Bill Craft put “backbreaking” work and thousands of dollars into fixing their Little Egg Harbor Shore home after it was flooded during Superstorm Sandy, but Maureen now says if she had to do it over again, she’d walk away.

Meg Huber spent thousands of dollars to repair her tiny Ocean Beach cottage after the storm, but now fears she and her husband will have to sell the home because they can’t afford to elevate it.

Rick Guglielmo despaired after the storm, but it allowed him to buy a beachfront property at a reduced price in Ortley Beach.

The three are among the thousands of property owners whose lives changed when Sandy sent floodwaters surging across the Jersey Shore. Three years after Sandy hit, the storm is just a memory along most of the coast. But in Ortley Beach, Mantoloking, Manahawkin and other hard-hit areas, the effects of the storm are still obvious in the mix of new homes, derelict cottages and empty lots.

Amid the buzz of construction, the Shore is coming back, but it’s going to take a few years to return fully — and it will be a different Shore. Many of the small, affordable cottages that squatted on the sand have been elevated or replaced by new, taller buildings, constructed to withstand hurricane waters and winds.

“The old beach bungalow is basically gone. The Shore has changed,” said Lee Childers of Childers Sotheby’s International Realty in Normandy Beach, which has six offices at the Shore.

The people at the Shore also have changed. Faced with the financial or emotional cost of repairs, many longtime homeowners are selling their properties..

“There are a lot of people out there who can’t afford to rebuild,” said Ed Walters of the ReBuild division of Barnegat-based Walters Group, which has constructed more than 200 houses to replace those destroyed in the storm. “A lot of those properties are coming on the market and people are buying them. There’s going to be a changeover of people selling and new people coming in to all these areas.”

“These quaint little bungalows — they’re cute, but people want to bring friends and family to the beach,” Walters said. “That’s one of the biggest gripes. Everybody was sleeping in sleeping bags. … It’s just not practical to have a home one foot off the ground. It’s inevitable that it’s going to flood.”

Posted in New Development, Shore Real Estate | 107 Comments