New Jersey and NY Metro Making Progress

This is probably the strongest showing yet, and finally good indication that NJ is making forward progress on reducing the number of foreclosures and outstanding mortgage delinquencies.

For state foreclosure performance, you can see that NJ ranked second best in terms of foreclosure inventory reduction, dropping a full percentage point in comparison to Florida with their very strong 1.6% (Florida is very quick to foreclose, and has the ability to support a significantly larger pipeline than NJ). Serious delinquencies down a strong 1.2% year over year.

Metro area performance for the broader NY metro area are also making strong progress with a large 0.7% year over year reduction in foreclosure inventory, and second highest drop in serious delinquencies, 1.1% compared to a 1.7% in Chicago.

NJ will continue to remain on top for at least another year, however we’re finally starting to see solid progress being made on reducing inventory and delinquencies, dare I say an end seems to be in sight. I’m not calling all clear, not by a long shot. It won’t be until we pass terminal foreclosure velocity and start to see the YOY numbers drop can we say that. A good number of states have already made it over that hurdle and are coasting back down to what would be considered a longer-run average.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 82 Comments

NJ floats bill to tax non-profit hospitals

From the Record:

Proposed N.J. bill would mandate that some hospitals make payments to host communities

Non-profit acute-care hospitals that have money-making facilities would start making payments to offset the cost of services provided by host municipalities, according to a bill introduced Monday.

Currently, under tax laws that date back to 1913, such hospitals have blanket property tax exemptions on all their property, regardless of how much they profit from money-making ventures.

The proposed legislation, introduced by Senate President Steve Sweeney, Senator Robert Singer and Senator Joe Vitale, was worked out in agreement with the hospitals themselves. It would not change their tax-exempt status, but would require them to make defined payments to the municipalities to help pay for emergency services like police and fire protection.

The bill, called the Hospital Community Service Contribution Bill, would have non-profit hospitals that have for-profit operations make community service contributions directly to their municipalities. The payment formula would be $2.50 a day for each hospital bed and $750 a day for each facility providing satellite emergency care.

“The health care industry has changed substantially over the years, with hospitals engaged in a broad range of activities and services,” said Sweeney, a Democrat representing the counties of Salem and Gloucester.

“There is also a dramatic increase in competition among other hospitals and with other health care providers. The business has changed, but the tax laws have not. This legislation will have the hospitals pay their fair share while at the same time preserving their tax-exempt status,” Sweeney added.

Five percent of the payments under the measure would be sent to the county where the hospital is located. Any voluntary contributions by the hospitals would be deducted from the community service payments, and any hospital that is losing money could apply for an exemption from the payments.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 73 Comments

GSE High-LTV Mortgages Vaporware?

From HousingWire:

Black Knight: Consumers aren’t getting Fannie, Freddie 3% down mortgages

For all the uproar that surrounded Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac introducing loan programs that allowed buyers to put down as little as 3% around this time last year, not many buyers are actually taking advantage of the low down payment loans, according to a new report from Black Knight Financial Services (BKFS).

In Dec. 2014, Fannie and Freddie officially rolled out 97% loan-to-value products. At the time, officials from the Federal Housing Finance Agency said that they expected the low down payment loans to represent a small portion of the government-sponsored enterprises’ business moving forward.

Black Knight’s latest Mortgage Monitor report, released Monday, shows just how small that portion actually is.

According to Black Knight’s report, high-LTV loans (loans with LTV’s above 95%) from the GSEs have accounted for less than 3% of the total number of high-LTV loans originated in 2015.

According to Black Knight’s report, loans insured by the FHA or the VA still account for more than 90% of the total number of high-LTV loan originations – a figure that has held steady above 90% since 2009.

And high-LTV loans account for 77% of the total number of FHA or VA loan originations as well.

According to Black Knight Data & Analytics Senior Vice President Ben Graboske, those figures were far different before the housing crisis.

“Back in 2007, the GSEs made up over 45% of high-LTV purchase originations, while FHA/VA lending made up roughly one-third,” Graboske said.

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 59 Comments

2016 predictions start early

From Trulia:

Housing in 2016: Hesitant Households, Costly Coasts, and the Bargain Belt

As part of our annual look at the year ahead in housing, we commissioned Harris Poll to conduct a survey online in November among more than 2,000 Americans about their housing hopes and fears. We noticed some striking trends. Among them:

The American Dream of homeownership is not only alive and well, but continues its resurgence. The share of Americans who dream of owning a home is again up since last year: 1 percentage-point to 75%, and up 2 points among millennials to 80%.

More than one in five (22%), Americans think it will be harder to get a mortgage in 2016 than it was in 2015, perhaps because of looming interest rate increases.

Among millennials telling us that they plan to buy a home, nearly a third (31%) tell us they want to buy within two years, so by 2018. However, jobs and down payments are keys to turning these renters into homeowners within the next 12 months.

In addition to the survey, we at Trulia put together a short list of predictions for 2016:

Housing markets in the West and Northeast that we’ve defined as the Costly Coasts will continue to cool, but will boom in the Southern and Midwestern markets we call the Bargain Belt.

Renters may get some relief in costly metros, where multifamily construction is booming.

Buying will remain a better deal than renting nationally, even if mortgage rates increase. But in several California markets, renting might become cheaper than buying.

We expect housing markets along the Costly Coasts – namely, expensive metros in the West and Northeast– to continue slowing. In many of these coastal metros, affordability has decreased, homes are staying on the market slightly longer, and saving for a down payment can take decades.

Consumers are also starting to feel pessimistic about homes along the costly coasts. Those in the combined regions of the West and Northeast say getting a mortgage to buy or refinance a home will be worse in 2016 than better (10 percentage-points more said it would be worse than better to get a mortgage to buy a home, 7 points for refinance). Likewise, more Americans in these combined regions also said 2016 will be worse for renting a home than better (by a margin of 8 percentage-points).

Taken together, these factors lead us to believe household formation will wane in these metros 2016, which should help moderate price and rent growth. But due to a limited supply of new single-family homes in these metros, we don’t anticipate prices to fall anytime soon.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 19 Comments

Jobs Day!

From Bloomberg:

The Jobs Report Probably Won’t Change the Fed’s Mind on Liftoff

For once, the upcoming jobs report may not be the most critical of all time.

Federal Reserve officials have signaled that an interest-rate increase is in play for their December meeting, with both markets and economists now anticipating that normalization will begin less than two weeks from now. That means the payrolls data will probably offer more information about the pace of tightening in the months ahead than on the timing of the first hike.

“It would have to be a very large surprise — both in November and potentially a downward revision to October — to really change the outlook enough for the Fed to stop and reconsider the hike in December,” said Laura Rosner, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York.

Payrolls probably climbed by about 200,000 last month following a 271,000 surge in October that was the biggest this year, according to the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at a seven-year low of 5 percent,.

While some slowdown from October is to be expected, economists are looking for confirmation that hiring remains solid after payroll gains decelerated sharply in August and September. Friday’s data will do a lot to clarify which trend prevails.

Payrolls growth would have to be severely disappointing — closer to 100,000 or less — for it to prevent the Fed from hiking, said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The signal from policy makers regarding an increase this month has been so clear that “to not do it would risk adding uncertainty to financial markets right at year-end,” he said. “That might do more harm to the economy than raising interest rates would.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 157 Comments

NJ October Sales Up, Inventory Down

From the Otteau Group:

NJ Home Sales Rise for 14th Consecutive Month

Home purchase demand in New Jersey increased for the 14th consecutive month in October with more than 8,200 home-purchase contracts. This was the highest number of purchase contracts recorded in the month of October since 2005, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the same month one year ago.

While home purchase demand continues to rise, the inventory of available homes remains constrained in New Jersey. The number of homes being offered for sale in the month of October declined by more than 1,300 homes (-3%) compared to one year ago. This is about 21,000 (-29%) fewer homes on the market compared to the cyclical high in 2011. Today’s unsold inventory equates to 6.3 months of sales (non-seasonally adjusted), which is less than one year ago when it was 7.0 months.

Currently, 67% of New Jersey’s 21 counties have less than 8.0 months of supply, which is a balance point for home prices. Hudson, Union, Essex, Passaic and Somerset Counties are presently experiencing the strongest market conditions in the state with fewer than 5 months of supply, followed by Morris, Middlesex, Monmouth and Bergen Counties which all have fewer than 6 months of supply. All of the counties with an unsold inventory level equivalent to a supply of 12 months or greater are concentrated in the southern portion of the state including Cape May (13.1), Atlantic (14.5), Cumberland (15.0) and Salem (16.8).

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 134 Comments

National Home Prices up 6.8% YOY

From HousingWire:

CoreLogic: Home prices rise 6.8% in October

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.8% in the month of October when compared with one year ago, according to CoreLogic’s (CLGX) latest Home Price Index.

CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index and HPI Forecast showed that home prices rose slightly in October over the previous month, rising 1% over September.

September’s Home Price Index was also up 0.6% compared to August.

“As we move forward, the rise in home prices will need to be better correlated to family income trends over time to avoid homes becoming unaffordable for many,” Nallathambi said. “This is especially true in several metropolitan areas where home prices have grown rapidly.”

CoreLogic’s report also showed that home prices are projected to increase by 5.2% percent on a year-over-year basis from Oct. 2015 to Oct. 2016, and the projected month-over-month gain will be just 0.1% from Oct. 2015 to Nov. 2015.

“Many markets have experienced a low inventory of homes for sale along with strong buyer demand, which is sustaining upward pressure on home prices. These conditions are likely to persist as we enter 2016,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “A year from now, as we finish out October 2016, we expect the CoreLogic national Home Price Index appreciation to slow to 5.2%.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 149 Comments

Pending Home Sales up 3.9% YOY in October

From the WSJ:

Pending Home Sales Rise 0.2% in October

The number of existing homes that went under contract in the U.S. inched up in October, a sign the housing market remains stable heading into the final months of the year.

An index measuring pending home sales—a gauge of purchases before they become final—rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted reading of 107.7 in October, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted a 1.5% increase in October sales. September’s reading was revised to a 1.6% decline from an initially estimated 2.3% drop. The index peaked for the year in May and has mostly edged down since.

It typically takes a month or two for a home purchase to be completed. When the sale is finalized, it is registered in the Realtors’ more closely watched existing-home sales report. That report showed sales of previously owned homes, roughly 90% of the overall housing market, reached a post-recession peak of a 5.58 million annual pace in July, and hovered slightly below that level this fall.

The industry group said the pace of sales plateaued in recent months because buyers are finding a small number of available homes and prices are rising quickly in some markets.

“In the most competitive metro areas—particularly those in the South and West—affordability concerns remain heightened as low inventory continues to drive up prices,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.

Monday’s report showed pending home sale were up 3.9% from a year earlier in October.

On the month, sales increased in the Northeast and West, but fell in the South and Midwest.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 125 Comments

New tunnel? We can’t afford it.

From NJ Spotlight:

HOW WILL CASH-STRAPPED NJ PAY ITS SHARE OF GATEWAY RAIL-TUNNEL PROJECT?

Federal and state officials gave the plan to build a new rail tunnel under the Hudson River a major boost earlier this month when they announced a commitment to evenly share costs that could be as high as $20 billion.

But now comes the hard part: Determining exactly how to come up with the money.

A report issued last week by Moody’s Investors Service drove home that challenge, offering up some sobering facts about New Jersey’s ability to help fund the tunnel project, dubbed Gateway, including a tight state budget, significant debt and a fund for new transportation projects that’s on course to run out of money by the middle of next year.

But the report also offered a glimpse at how New Jersey could eventually afford its $5 billion share by the time a new tunnel is ready to open in about a decade. It cited the likely availability of low-interest loans, the potential to defer initial debt payments and the expected participation of the Port Authority, which maintains its own robust capital-planning budget.

“There will be many options to divide costs and leverage a variety of grant and loan opportunities,” the report said.

For New Jersey officials, those options provide plenty of reason at this point for optimism, even if many initially viewed the report from Moody’s, a major Wall Street credit-rating agency, as a warning sign.

“I think it’s just too early to engage in this pessimistic discussion, assuming New Jersey just won’t be able to pay its share,” said state Sen. Robert Gordon (D-Bergen), who’s been leading a series of legislative hearings in recent weeks on the Port Authority and capital projects including Gateway as chairman of the New Jersey Senate Legislative Oversight Committee.

But New Jersey will have some time to clean up its messy finances if, as Moody’s suggests, the first debt payments for Gateway can be deferred until the new tunnel opens, which could be a decade away.

That extra time would also help ease New Jersey’s most pressing transportation-funding challenge right now, which is the pending expiration on June 30, 2016, of the state’s current five-year, $8 billion Transportation Trust Fund finance plan.

Lawmakers have yet to say how they plan to reauthorize the trust fund, but an increase of the state’s 14.5-cent gas tax along with a constitutional dedication of the new revenue for transportation is now widely expected to be proposed as part of the next five-year plan.

If debt payments for Gateway aren’t due until the new tunnel opens, the first bills would likely be covered not in the five-year TTF plan that lawmakers are working on now, but in the following plan when revenue would likely be more stable. And low-interest loans from the federal Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing program that have been discussed for Gateway could make New Jersey’s payments as little as $150 million to $200 million annually spread out over 30 years.

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 81 Comments

Blame savers for the lack of recovery?

From Reuters:

U.S. data points to moderate fourth-quarter growth

U.S. consumer spending barely rose in October as households took advantage of rising incomes to boost savings to their highest level in nearly three years, pointing to moderate economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Anemic consumer spending did little do change expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month as other data on Wednesday showed a surge in business spending plans in October and a drop in new applications for unemployment benefits last week.

“As far as fourth-quarter GDP goes, that is likely to keep estimates close to 2 percent. That’s enough to justify a rate hike as long as next Friday’s employment report is not a disaster,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

The Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up 0.1 percent after a similar increase in September. That suggests consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has slowed from the third quarter’s brisk 3.0 percent annual pace.

Economists say rising rents and medical costs are diverting money from discretionary spending. While consumer sentiment increased in November from October, households continued to fret over their financial prospects, another report showed.

But as the labor market continues to tighten, there is optimism that wage growth will pick up and encourage consumers to loosen their purse strings and boost spending.

Strengthening labor market conditions are gradually lifting income. The Commerce Department said personal income increased 0.4 percent last month after rising 0.2 percent in September. Wages and salaries shot up 0.6 percent, the largest gain since May.

Savings increased to $761.9 billion, the highest level since December 2012, from $722.9 billion in September. Higher savings could over time buoy consumer spending.

There was still no sign of inflation, which has persistently run below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 34 Comments

Don’t be too thankful for the recovery

From the WSJ:

Real Home Prices Could Take 17 Years to Return to Peak

Home prices have been growing at a rate that some see as alarming—about twice the rate of wages. But adjusting for inflation, the market still has a long way to go before returning to the frothy state of a decade ago.

Most measures of home prices—including the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the CoreLogic Home Price Index and the National Association of Realtors existing home sales report—don’t take inflation into account and show prices nearing or surpassing the peak hit in 2006 or early 2007.

But a new analysis by real-estate information firm CoreLogic finds that when adjusted for inflation, home prices are years away from hitting the lofty heights of the housing boom. Indeed, economists there say that prices are unlikely to surpass 2006 levels until 2023 or beyond, some 17 years past the peak.

“It’s a slow recovery in housing,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. The rise and fall in prices without adjusting for inflation matter for existing homeowners because they determine whether or not they are underwater on their mortgages. The rapid run-up in prices in recent years has made it easier for people to sell their homes because they no longer owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth.

As of September 2015, CoreLogic’s Home Price index was 7% below its April 2006 peak, not adjusted for inflation. Prices fell 32% from that peak to the trough in March 2011.

But adjusted for inflation, the bust looks far worse. In September 2015, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index was still 20% below the peak in March 2006. It dropped 41% from that peak to the trough in February 2012.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 13 Comments

State ready to force reassessment of properties

From the Star Ledger:

State blasts tax boards, may force N.J. towns to reassess properties

Three New Jersey municipalities in Union, Hudson and Middlesex counties are under investigation by the state for stalling property reassessments for decades and could be forced to conduct revaluations.

The investigation of Jersey City, Elizabeth and Dunellen is a shot across the bow to municipalities in the three counties the state says have neglected their legal duty to ensure fair property assessments, key in determining the real estate taxes home and business owners owe.

Tax boards in these three counties have “consistently failed to require towns to uniformly and fairly assess properties,” Treasury Department officials said Wednesday.

Over time, properties’ assessed values grow increasingly out of line with their market values, and some owners wind up paying too much, while others pay too little. Jersey City hasn’t reassessed in 27 years, Elizabeth in 39 years and Dunellen in 33 years, according to the state.

“The Division of Taxation is reluctantly taking this action because the Hudson, Middlesex and Union county tax boards have failed to do what they are supposed to do,” Treasury spokesman Joe Perone said. “The state has been more than patient in trying to convince the county tax boards to meet obligations, but they have been lax in enforcement because revaluations are unpopular.”

In a news release, the state also calls out Westfield, South River, East Newark, Harrison, Roselle and Winfield. They are among 32 municipalities that have not reassessed in at least 25 years, Perone said.

This would be the first time in four decades that the division is invoking its authority to force a municipality to reassess its property “because it’s clear that the county tax boards and the three municipalities have no interest in complying with the law,” he said.

“Over the nearly three decades since Jersey City’s last revaluation in 1988, the New Jersey Gold Coast city has seen a substantial redevelopment and increased demand,” he said in a statement. “Despite a booming real estate market that has enriched homeowners, many Jersey City residents continue to pay taxes as if they couldn’t give their homes away. Even worse, the rest of New Jersey has been forced to pick up the tab while city officials have resisted efforts to be held accountable for their own spending.”

According to the state Department of Treasury, the true value of Jersey City properties is $15.6 billion higher than its assessed value. In Dunellen, the market value of property exceeds the assessed value by a factor of four.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 125 Comments

Prices, inventory weigh on home sales, but still up year over year

From Bloomberg:

Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Fall From Second-Highest Since 2007

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes retreated in October from the second-highest level since 2007 as lean inventory limited momentum in residential real estate.

Closings, which usually take place a month or two after a contract is signed, dropped 3.4 percent to a 5.36 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. Prices increased compared with October 2014 as the number of dwellings on the market decreased.

A limited supply of available properties, particularly more affordable homes, has made for a slow and steady recovery in residential real estate. At the same time, steady employment growth, rising rents and low borrowing costs are bolstering prospects for the market.

“Unless supply catches up, there will still be problems on the price side,” said Xiao Cui, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “We think that job growth and earnings growth have been promising this year and should help affordability.”

The median forecast of 71 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for sales at a 5.4 million annual rate. Estimates ranged from 5.09 million to 5.6 million. September’s pace was unrevised at 5.55 million, the second-fastest rate since February 2007.
Compared with a year earlier, purchases increased 0.9 percent in October before adjusting for seasonal variations.

The median price of an existing home rose 5.8 percent from October 2014 to $219,600. The appreciation was led by an 8 percent year-to-year advance in the West.

Prices have been bolstered by a dearth of supply on the market. The number of previously owned homes for sale dropped 2.3 percent in October from a month earlier to 2.14 million, the fewest since March.

Purchases declined in three of four regions, led by an 8.7 percent drop in the West, the Realtors’ data show. They were unchanged in the Northeast.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 91 Comments

Fewer underwater than they think?

From the WSJ:

Why the Housing Rebound Hasn’t Lifted the U.S. Economy Much

American homeowners are finally digging out of the hole created by the housing crisis. But their housing wealth is playing a much smaller role in the overall economy than it did before the downturn.

Home equity has roughly doubled to $12.1 trillion since house prices hit bottom in 2011, according to the Federal Reserve. As a result, a key gauge of housing wealth—homeowners’ equity as a share of real-estate values—is nearing the point seen a decade ago, before the downturn.

Such a level once would have offered a double-barreled boost to the economy by providing owners with more money to tap and making them feel more flush and likely to spend. But today, that newfound wealth has had little effect on behavior. While the traditional ways Americans tap their home equity—home-equity loans, lines of credit and cash-out refinances—are higher than last year, they are still depressed.

Home equity’s effect on consumer spending is at its lowest ebb since the early 1990s, according to Moody’s Analytics. The research firm estimates that every $1 rise in home equity in the fourth quarter of 2014 would translate to about two cents of extra consumer spending over the next 1 to 1½ years. That was a third of the impact home equity had before the bust, Moody’s said.

The impact is more muted now despite the fact that home equity per homeowner has roughly doubled. At the end of the second quarter, the figure was about $156,700, up from $81,100 in the second quarter of 2011, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Though the homeownership rate has fallen, the total number of households has increased, meaning the number of households that own hasn’t changed much since the housing bubble burst in 2006, Mr. Zandi said.

Why aren’t homeowners feeling flush again? For one thing, since rising home prices over the past few years largely have made up for ground lost during the recession, many owners might not even realize they have equity to tap.

The percentage of homeowners who were underwater, or owing more on their mortgage than the home’s value, dropped to 8.7% by mid-2015 from 21% at the end of 2011, according to CoreLogic. Yet the percentage of homeowners who thought they were underwater fell by merely one percentage point to 27%, according to housing-finance company Fannie Mae.

“Consumers are definitely more conservative financially than they were 10 years ago. They’ve seen that house prices can be volatile,” Mr. Duncan said.

“We’re at an inflection point,” Mr. Zandi said. “Since the crash, it’s all been about repairing homeowners’ equity but now that house prices are returning to prerecession levels, we will see homeowners’ equity driving consumer spending, home improvements and economic activity.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 43 Comments

Vindication … again!

Anyone who has been here since the beginning will remember Dominick Prevete, who we regularly sparred with in 2005. Well, it seems that the leading real estate bubble cheerleader has gotten himself into some trouble. But, before we get into that, let’s take a look back and review the history. For those who weren’t around in 2005, take some time to read these, you’ll enjoy them:

October 23rd, 2005: Debunking Another Real Estate Puff Piece

Dear Mr. Prevete,

You, sir, are a moron.

You have optimism over these new “Loan Products”? The new loan products that has the banking industry and the fed shaking in their boots? These new loan products that let underqualified buyers overleverage themselves to purchase overpriced homes that risk significant depreciation? You’re optimistic?

“The only risk is that the underlying asset loses value — and I don’t expect home prices to quickly depreciate,” he said.

Mr. Prevete, would you and your organization (Weichert Realtors) care to sign a contract that holds yourselves responsible for any depreciation or loss on any sales you broker? If prices don’t go down, you’ve got nothing to lose right? Or is this statement just doubletalk? That you do indeed expect home prices to depreciate, just not quickly.

November 16, 2005: N.J. home sale fever breaking, data show

“I believe the NAR numbers don’t reflect the last 45 to 60 days in the market,” said Dominick Prevete, regional vice president for northern New Jersey at Morris Plains-based Weichert Realtors. “In the short term, buyers have been on hold by some recent developments, like the Hurricane Katrina and the quick run-up in energy prices. Those things had people scared and a bit frozen.”

It’s our old friend Dominick Prevete again. You might remember him from “Debunking Another Real Estate Puff Piece”, a few weeks ago, I think I may have called him a skirt wearing, pom-pom shaking cheerleader for saying the market was a “win-win for buyers and sellers” and recommending risky loans. It seems he’s changed his tune a bit, so I wonder if he read my article (I did see alot of hits from Google showing that folks hit my site searching for his name).

Again, however, I must call you a moron Mr. Prevete. What impact would the hurricanes have on buyers in New Jersey? In case you missed it, they didn’t exactly hit here. Or are you just looking for something to blame, calling it only a short term downturn once we get over the pain of the hurricanes? And run up in energy prices? If the recent uptick in energy prices made it hard on someone to purchase a home, I really don’t think those people should be buying a home in the first place. These prospective buyers must be pretty strapped for cash if you are blaming an increase in gasoline prices on the decrease in sales. No Mr. Prevete, the reason people aren’t buying is because more and more people realize that real estate isn’t a “win-win” investment, and you can lose alot of your hard earned money. Buyers know we are in a bubble, and they are smart enough not to buy.

December 24th, 2005: To Warren Boroson and Dominick Prevete

Many of my readers will be familiar with the name Warren Boroson, a local journalist. Warren has written some real gems in the past year, many of which try to entirely discount the fact that there is a speculative bubble in residential real estate. Warren has defended his position so vehemently, one wonders what vested interests he has in it. Warren is at it once again, with his pal Dominick Prevete (regional vp of Weichert) who like clockwork appears in every one of Warrens articles to offer up expert opinion. Warren, why do you continually quote Mr. Prevete in every real estate article you write?

Perhaps I’m being too critical of the duo, the most recent piece at least concedes some possibility there is a bubble, however, the article ends with the usual pro-real estate spin..

So here goes, how the mighty cheerleader has fallen from grace. From the NJ Herald:

Former Weichert executive accused of embezzlement

A 46-year-old former top executive of Weichert Realtors who oversaw the company’s offices in Sussex County and elsewhere throughout the region has been accused in a newly filed company lawsuit of embezzling funds intended for marketing purposes and redirecting them for his own personal use.

Dominick Prevete, who rose from managing the company’s Sparta office to become regional vice president in charge of 23 Weichert offices throughout northern New Jersey, is alleged by the company to have defrauded Weichert and its salespersons by way of multiple acts of theft and forgery.

Prevete, a former Fredon resident who currently resides in Morristown, was fired by the company on Oct. 22 and has since been named by the Morris Plains company in an 11-page civil lawsuit that seeks unspecified compensatory and punitive damages for fraud, breach of fiduciary duty, and civil theft.

Prevete, reached by phone over the weekend, said “it’s (Weichert) a great company and I’m sure we’ll work it out,” but declined further comment.

But an internal company memorandum obtained by the New Jersey Herald, in which employees were directed not to talk to the media but were encouraged to share the information with others, indicates Prevete “stole company monies intended for Weichert Sales Associates and he has confessed to his misdeed.”

The memorandum goes on to state that the matter has been referred to criminal authorities and to the New Jersey Real Estate Commission, which could act to revoke Prevete’s real estate broker’s license.

In its lawsuit, filed in Superior Court in Morris County, the company details an elaborate scheme allegedly devised by Prevete to steal unused funds allocated to the company’s sales representatives for reimbursement of their marketing costs and have them redeposited into his personal bank account.

The lawsuit states that as regional vice president, “Prevete had access to information including which salespersons did not have direct deposit and which salespersons typically did not utilize some or all of their marketing funds” and that he used this information “to defraud Weichert and its salespersons and to benefit himself.”

The lawsuit indicates that Prevete — who, as regional vice president, had the authority to obtain marketing funds for salespersons under his jurisdiction — “abused his access to company information by researching and targeting salespersons who did not have direct deposit of funds so that he could obtain physical checks in a scheme to steal from Weichert and so that such thefts would not be detected.”

Prevete allegedly would then would fill out a form indicating a salesperson was to be paid a marketing allowance, would present the form to Weichert’s commission department for approval, and would then request a check payable to that salesperson.

Upon receiving the check, “Prevete then forged the signature of the salesperson on the check. After forging the salesperson’s signature, Prevete would then endorse the check for deposit into his own personal account.”

“Prevete would then tender the check to his own bank and fraudulently represent that the check had been properly endorsed over to him.”

The lawsuit goes on to detail three specific instances, right down to the check numbers themselves, in which Prevete allegedly forged and cashed checks in the manner described.

In each of the cases, the lawsuit states, “Prevete intentionally stole funds from Weichert by abusing his position to target the salesperson, by misrepresenting that funds were owed to the salesperson, by filling in a (request) form with fraudulent information, by forging the salesperson’s signature on the check and by depositing the funds into his bank account for his own personal gain.”

Hat tip to Wag for letting me know, and Eric Obernauer at the Herald for pulling this piece together. Took ten years to prove what we all knew on day one.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 34 Comments