Embrace the Millennial

Posted on April 25, 2015 by grim

Great read from the APP:

Why New Jersey needs millennials

Conversation and laughter blend with the beat of the music permeating the stylish bar that is intimately lit with votive candles and glass fixtures.

Jennifer Keleman, 28, and her fiancee, nestled together on an oversized sofa, clink their wine glasses. It’s her birthday and they are celebrating at one of their favorite Asbury Park hot spots. Even if the celebration includes multiple glasses of wine, they’re only a short walk from their oceanfront apartment. No driving involved.

“In Asbury Park I feel that I can walk to bars and restaurants. I can go to the beach in the same day. I can go back to my apartment for lunch to walk my dog,” Keleman said. ” I can do that all without having to necessarily get in my car and drive somewhere and that’s really appealing to me.”

The urban landscape offered in towns like Asbury Park and Jersey City make them more attractive to millennials, aka Generation Y. But the rest of New Jersey is unappealing to them.

There’s a lot at stake for the Garden State. The generation has 75 million people, and they aren’t drawn to the landscape of malls and homes that suited WWII and Boomer families migrating from inner cities to safe, quiet suburbs.

Millennials amassed billions in student loan debt due to the sky rocketing cost of college tuition. The scarcity of high paying jobs makes it difficult to pay down the debt faster. Four of 10 millennials in New Jersey are in such dire straits that they live in their childhood home, U.S. Census data shows.

“They’ve delayed being launched,” said Cliff Zukin, a Rutgers University professor who has studied generational changes on American society. “They’re going to delay marriage, having jobs, kids, buying houses.”

The combination of problems is causing New Jersey millennials to migrate out of state, a Rutgers University study found.

With fewer members of Generation Y in New Jersey, there will be fewer people to buy houses, pay taxes, start families and spend money.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 33 Comments

Makes too much sense, what am I missing?

Posted on April 24, 2015 by grim

From Housingwire:

Radian now offering an industry first – job loss insurance

Radian Guaranty, the mortgage insurance subsidiary of Radian Group (RDN), is offering a new program that’s the first of its kind in the industry – job loss insurance.

Radian’s new program, called Radian MortgageAssure, will pay a borrower’s mortgage if they suffer an involuntary job loss and fall behind on their mortgage payments. Plus the program will be automatically provided to certain borrowers with no additional cost to the borrower.

According to Radian, the program is designed to “provide homeowners peace of mind” after an involuntary job loss. Radian notes that the program has dual benefits, for both the borrower and the lender, because the program reduces the risk of job loss-related late or missed mortgage payments, while offering lenders further protection against default.

Radian said that its new MortgageAssure program is the only program of its kind currently offered by a mortgage insurer and will be offered exclusively to Radian’s lending partners.

Under the program, if a participating homeowner falls behind on their mortgage payments due to an involuntary job loss and meets the conditions of the program, Radian MortgageAssure will provide up to six monthly mortgage payments, with a maximum monthly benefit of up to $1,500, or total protection of $9,000 during the two-year coverage period.

“At Radian, we are continually innovating to help Americans realize the dream of affordable, sustainable homeownership,” said Brien McMahon, chief franchise officer, Radian. “As the spring buying season begins, we are pleased to be able to offer a new level of protection – at no additional cost – that is designed to provide peace of mind to those interested in purchasing a home.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, Mortgages | 98 Comments

March Sales Hit 18 Month High

Posted on April 23, 2015 by grim

From the Record:

Jobs recovery boosts demand for homes

Fueled by a stronger job market, housing sales activity is picking up steam, with existing home sales up 6.1 percent nationwide in March, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

A separate report, from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said that home prices nationwide were also on the rise — up 5.4 percent in the 12 months ending in February. But prices were up only 2.6 percent in the Middle Atlantic region, which includes New Jersey.

That story was reflected in Bergen and Passaic counties, which saw little price improvement but an increase in sales activity.

“After a quiet start to the year, sales activity picked up greatly throughout the country in March,” said NAR economist Lawrence Yun. “The combination of low interest rates and the ongoing stability in the job market is improving buyer confidence and finally releasing some of the sizable pent-up demand that accumulated in recent years.”

Existing-home sales nationwide in March were at an annual level of 5.19 million.

“As we continue to see improvement and strengthening in the labor market, we’re seeing better household formation numbers,” said Anika Khan, an economist with Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, N.C. “Jobs are the key to housing demand.”

In March, the unemployment rate was 5.5 percent nationally, and 6.5 percent in New Jersey.

In Bergen County, the number of single-family home sales rose 12.6 percent in March compared to a year earlier. Single-family sales were up 22 percent in Passaic, though town house and condo sales dropped in both counties, according to the New Jersey Realtors.

But home values were up only slightly in the region, compared to March 2014. Single-family prices ticked up 1.7 percent in Bergen in March, to a median $437,500, and were flat in Passaic, at a median $285,000.

“Sales seem to be definitely on the rise, especially in the $500,000 range,” said Robert Funabishi, an agent with Terrie O’Connor Realtors in Saddle River. “My listing in Park Ridge had 30 showings in four days and [the owners] took an offer above the asking price. There’s a lot of pent-up demand out there from 2014, so it appears that anything that’s priced well and is clean is getting a lot of attention.”

Beth Freed, an agent with Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty in Ridgewood, said the inventory of homes for sale remains tight.

“It would be really great if more homeowners decided to come on the market,” she said. “There are plenty of buyers out there.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 85 Comments

Foreclosure starts spike in February?

Posted on April 22, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

Black Knight: March foreclosure starts skyrocket 18% from February

The March delinquency rate dropped 12% month-over-month, the largest monthly decline in nine years, but at the same time foreclosure starts skyrocketed 18% in March, according to the Black Knight Financial Services report for March.

Foreclosure starts were up 18% from February. Approximately 94,100 foreclosures were started in March, a roughly 7% increase from last year.

March didn’t see quite as many foreclosure starts as there were in January when there were 94,400, but it was the second highest number of starts since the end of 2013, which was 105,000.

The foreclosure rate continues its long-term trend of improvement, down over 27% from this time last year.

The drop in the monthly delinquencies helped to drive delinquencies below 5% for the first time since August 2007.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 82 Comments

It won’t ever sell…

Posted on April 21, 2015 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Bank foreclosing on Joe, Teresa Giudice’s Montville mansion

The same day the new real estate agent for “Real Housewives of New Jersey” star Teresa Giudice vowed to aggressively market their enormous Montville Township mansion, the bank that holds their mortgage started foreclosure proceedings against the couple.

Community Bank of Bergen County filed a notice of foreclosure in Morris County Superior Court Wednesday on their Indian Lane property, according to court papers obtained by NJ Advance Media. The couple had returned to the mansion to the market this week with a $2.99 million listing price.

Community Bank was listed as one of the couple’s creditors in its 2010 bankruptcy filing, with a $1.7 million claim on the property. The couple eventually abandoned their bankruptcy claim after the trustee representing their creditors alleged they hid assets and income, which led to a federal prosecution that netted Teresa 15 months in prison (she’s expected to be out in February 2016) and Joe 41 months. The trustee closed out the bankruptcy proceedings last year after only collecting $7,500; the end of the proceedings gave banks and other credits free reign to seek repayment.

The couple also had two other properties on the market since last year: a vacation home in Manahawkin and a modest three-bedroom home they rented out in Lincoln Park. But they pulled those homes off the market earlier this month. According to Zillow.com, the two homes are in pre-foreclosure, although there has been no notice of foreclosure for the Manahawkin home filed with Ocean County Superior Court. In May 2014, a mortgage holder on the Lincoln Park property filed a notice in Morris County Superior Court, but no further action has been taken.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 106 Comments

Doesn’t make it any easier to swallow

Posted on April 20, 2015 by grim

From Time/Money:

8 Reasons Your Property Taxes Are So Damn High

A Monmouth University survey released last fall showed that more than half of New Jersey residents want to leave at some point, with 26% saying that it’s “very likely” they’ll move away from the Garden State. The most popular reasons cited for were the costs of housing and property taxes—the high cost of property taxes in particular. “The chief culprit among these costs is the New Jersey’s property tax burden,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained.

New Jersey isn’t the only state at risk of losing residents to Florida, Pennsylvania, or another state with lower taxes. Stories pop up regularly speculating about the likelihood of homeowners jumping ship from high-tax states like New York and Connecticut as well.
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The community has good schools. Or at least extremely well-funded ones. According to Zillow, the median residential property tax bill in New York’s Westchester County is $13,842, highest in the nation. A Westchester Magazine feature focused on why the leafy, desirable county holds this dubious distinction. The piece draws a comparison to Virginia’s Fairfax County, which is similar in many ways to Westchester: They’re both suburbs of big cities (New York and Washington, D.C.), they have similarly high home values, and they educate about the same number of students in public schools, which in both places have a good reputation.
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State workers make good money too. By most measures, New Jersey homeowners have the country’s highest property taxes. Tax Foundation data shows that the Garden State has the highest effective property tax rate (percentage of home value) and the highest property taxes per capita. The average property tax bill in the state hit $8,161 in 2014, also tops in the U.S. In fact, one study indicates that less than 1% of American homeowners pay more than $8,000 annually in property taxes.
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Your state relies heavily on property taxes. The above-referenced editorial also points out that 48% of state and local revenues collected in N.J. come from property taxes, which is off-the-charts high: “No other state derives more than 41 percent of its revenue from that source; the U.S. average is 33.1 percent.”

This state of affairs would be more acceptable to locals if the tradeoff for high property taxes is low taxation in other areas. Indeed, New Jersey has one of the country’s lowest gas taxes, and it’s in the middle of the pack in terms of taxes on wine, spirits, and beer. Unlike many other states, people in New Jersey don’t pay any vehicle property taxes either. Then again, New Jerseyans do pay the second highest state sales tax rate (7%, only California is higher).

Little or no tourism. A recent WalletHub study named Hawaii as the state with the lowest property taxes. New Jersey property taxes are eight times higher than their counterparts in the Aloha State. And a big reason why homeowners get off (relatively) easy in Hawaii is that the state collects so much from outsiders, thanks to high taxes on hotels and other tourism expenses. Likewise, taxes paid by casinos and tourists in Nevada are often credited as a reason why state property taxes aren’t high.

Little or no industry. The more that industrial and commercial businesses pay in taxes in a state or town, the less it’s necessary for homeowners to cover the government’s tab. According to the Wyoming Taxpayer Association, 69% of property taxes in the state are paid by mineral production businesses. Therefore, residential property taxes can remain low—the state has no income tax either. The city of Marlborough, Mass., recently estimated that it were it not for local commercial taxpayers, the average homeowner would see his property tax bill (now averaging $4,791) shoot up by $1,164 per year.

Your property is worth a bundle. Your property tax bill is based on multiplying the local tax rate times the assessed value of your home. So, generally speaking, the owners of more valuable homes pay more in property taxes. Marin County has the most expensive real estate in California, on average, so it should come as no surprise that it has the highest (or among the highest) average property taxes too. In New Jersey, the 10 towns with the highest property tax bills all averaged over $18,000 per year, and five out of the ten had average residential property values over $1 million.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 144 Comments

First American: No equity, no sales

Posted on April 18, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

Lack of equity drags down existing home sales

The existing home sales report for March from the National Association of Realtors isn’t due until next week, but Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American, said his early look suggests that a lack of equity is continuing to dog the housing market.

Housing has seen a weak start to the year overall. Mortgage applications have been soft – more down than up – and indicators like sales, starts, and new home purchases have underperformed. This is despite the fact that buying is cheaper than renting in three out of four markets nationwide.

Existing home sales were tepidly positive in February, and the primary reason cited was tightening inventory.

Fleming says the main reason for the weakness in the existing home sale market is lack of equity.

“Lack of equity remains a significant constraining factor for market participants and is the primary reason the existing-home sales market is underperforming. Existing homeowners are the largest share of the existing-home sales market, and they can’t be home buyers if they don’t have the sufficient equity to be home sellers,” Fleming says. “This is one of the key reasons we are observing tight inventory in many markets.

“Yet the appreciation we do observe, returning equity to existing homeowners, is the most significant key driver of the improvement in expected sales,” Fleming said.
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“Lack of equity is a reason, but it is not the only reason,” Sanders said. “Dismal wage growth and real median household income continues to weigh down the housing market.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery | 21 Comments

How to win a bidding war? – 9 tips from a f*cking idiot

Posted on April 17, 2015 by grim

From Housingwire:

How to win a bidding war in today’s outrageous housing market

1. Offer Full Price or More. Money is a major factor in a seller’s decision, but not the only one. Holy shit – what are we paying this guy for this kind of insight. Surefire way to find yourself with the winner’s curse

2. Eliminate Seller Paid Closing Costs/Points. It is not full price if you then ask the seller to pay your closing costs. If you need to the closing costs covered, make sure your offer Nets the seller at least what a full price offer would. So basically, offer more money, no different than point 1 above.

3. Large earnest money up front. Show the seller you are committed and putting up risk to stand by your “word” (purchase agreement) to buy the home. Should more clearly indicate that what you are doing here is trading the potential loss of earnest money for a potential discount, there is a significant cost to this should the buyer find themselves in a position needing to walk away. Husband killed in a car accident a week before closing? Sorry lady, you are out of luck.

4. Cash is King. Go in with cash if possible to eliminate problems of appraisals and financing. Appraisals are a problem as prices are increasing. New regulations make it difficult for appraisers and banks to meet the market changes. How exactly does this help someone to win a bidding war? It’s idiotic to even mention this. If someone could afford the property without financing, why would they finance?

5. Closing date should match seller’s preferred date. Buyers agent should ask Seller’s agent what date the seller would like close on. Probably the only realistic suggestion in the bunch

6. Allow seller a couple extra days possession after closing this gives them time to move out and lowers their stress. (frowned on by attorneys.) Absolutely terrible idea, of course it’s frowned on by attorneys, because now if they decide they like the house and want to stay, you’ll need to go through the eviction process to kick them out. They could be in there for months, if not years, depending on the jurisdiction.

7. If buyer is financing, include a statement that the buyer will make up the price difference in cash if the home doesn’t appraise out for purchase price. (if buyer can do so) If buyer can’t pay cash, this will also relieve the concern of an appraisal problem. Oh, for f*ck’s sake, now we aren’t just going to risk getting the winner’s curse, we’re going to go ahead and guarantee it

8. If buyer is doing an inspection, have buyer provide a statement that they will not nit-pick any items to re-negotiate price, but only structural or mechanical failures. Inspections were intended to be a way for the buyer to make sure they were not purchasing a major problem. Too often this is now being used as a way to re-negotiate the price with the seller. Remove this potential concern for the seller. C’mon man, just all out with it, why not just suggest to eliminate the inspection contingency outright? Also, you’ve never heard of death by a thousand cuts? I assure you, those houses exist

9. If buyer is financing, have a well prepared Pre-Approval letter from the lender. Make sure it does not come across as a pre-qualification letter. Most buyer’s have no clue, if it’s got the bank’s logo up top, it’s official. Besides, pre-approval don’t mean shit if the deal can’t make it through underwriting anyway

Posted in Humor | 50 Comments

Gold Coast rises again?

Posted on April 16, 2015 by grim

From the Jersey Journal:

Jersey City sees building boom

Jersey City is about to get a lot more crowded.

The city is expecting nearly 3,000 residential units to come online before the end of the year, while developers are expected to break ground on another 3,000 in the next 10 months.

The new additions will include a 950-foot condominium tower on Hudson Street that will be the tallest building in New Jersey, a 50-story high-rise outside the Grove Street PATH station and a 448-unit tower in Liberty Harbor North that will rise 44 stories.

And the changes aren’t only in the Downtown, where most of the new large-scale development has taken place for the last three decades. Hundreds of units are set to go online by the end of the year on Senate Place, just south of Canco Lofts, and at the Beacon.

Developers Eric and Paul Silverman have been building in Jersey City for over 30 years — before it was cool. The brothers’ new building, Charles and Co., a 99-unit Grove Street building with office and retail space, is opening this summer. Eric Silverman told The Jersey Journal the city’s newest boom is part of a global trend of more people choosing city living over suburbia.

More than that, he said, Jersey City is special.

“People have finally recognized that Jersey City has a lot of natural assets: good architecture, a good grid pattern, the multiple modes of transportation,” he said. “It has everything.”
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The list of buildings opening or breaking ground in Jersey City this year changes so rapidly it’s hard to keep track.
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All told, the city expects the new developments opening this year to contribute to an expected 8,000 increase in the city’s population. By next year, Mayor Steve Fulop says, the city will be the largest in the state.

Jersey City has seen building booms before, but Fulop said this one is different because it is “benefiting every neighborhood.”

Less lucrative tax abatements for Downtown residential buildings are allowing the city to grow its rateable base, he said, leading to more residents sharing the tax burden. And more lucrative tax deals for developers outside of Downtown, which was home to the city’s last building boom, are helping lure developers to build elsewhere in the city, he said.

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 87 Comments

Buy or rent, can’t win either way right now

Posted on April 15, 2015 by grim

From the Record:

Why your rent will rise again this year

Living in an apartment? Expect your rent to go up again.

Renting has gotten increasingly expensive in the past five years. The average U.S. rent has climbed 14 percent to $1,124 since 2010, according to commercial property tracker Reis Inc. That’s four percentage points faster than inflation, and more than double the rise in U.S. home prices in the same period.

Now, even with a surge in apartment construction, rents are projected to rise an additional 3.3 percent this year, to an average $1,161, according to Reis. While that’s slower than last year’s 3.6 percent increase, the broader upward trend isn’t going away.

“The only relief in sight is rents in the hottest markets are going to go up at a slower pace, but they’re still going to go up,” said Hessam Nadji, chief strategy officer at Marcus & Millichap, a commercial real estate services firm.

The main reason: More people than ever are apartment hunting.

Young people who have been living with their parents are increasingly finding jobs and moving out. Rising home prices are leading many longtime renters to stay put.

In addition, most of the new apartments coming on the market are aimed at affluent tenants and carry higher-than-average rents. That’s especially true in cities where new buildings are going up in urban core areas, which means builders need to recoup higher land and development costs.
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During the last recession, many workers who lost their jobs moved in with relatives or took on roommates. About 32 percent of U.S. adults were living with roommates or adult family members in 2012, up from 27.4 percent in 2006, according to Zillow, an online real estate firm.

Stepped-up hiring has begun to reverse that trend. About 2.8 million more Americans have jobs than 12 months ago.

“The share of young adults with jobs has climbed in the past year, and that will help many of them move out of their parents’ homes,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at online real estate firm Trulia. “Most of them will be renters first.”
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Developers added 238,000 apartments nationwide last year, a 14-year high, with an additional 210,000 expected this year, according to Marcus & Millichap.

In theory, more apartment construction should help bring down rents because landlords would compete for tenants. But 80 percent of new complexes, Nadji estimated, are high-end projects aimed at renters willing to pay a premium for amenities like gourmet kitchens and concierge service.

How much of a premium? The average rent for apartments completed last year was $1,721. That’s 46 percent higher than the average apartment rent for older units, according to Marcus & Millichap and data provider MPF Research.

“There’s very little new supply being added anywhere else,” said Nadji, “so that’s why there’s so much pressure on rents and very little choice for the average renter.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 121 Comments

Peak Brooklyn?

Posted on April 13, 2015 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Brooklyn Home Prices Jump 18% to Record as Buyers Compete

Home prices in Brooklyn jumped to a record in the first quarter as buyers clamoring to own real estate in New York’s most populous borough competed for the limited supply of listings on the market.

Condominiums, co-ops and one- to three-family homes sold for a median of $610,894 in the period, up 18 percent from a year earlier and the highest in 12 years of data-keeping, according to a report Thursday by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

The median price has reached a record six times in the past eight quarters.

Developers capitalizing on the borough’s growing cachet have focused on building rentals, drawing in new residents but leaving a void for those who wish to eventually put down roots and become homeowners. The 4,331 homes listed for sale in Brooklyn at the end of March was the second-lowest total for a first quarter in records dating to 2009, according to the firms.

“We’re not creating new housing stock that addresses the largest portion of housing demand,” Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel and a Bloomberg View contributor, said in an interview. “We’re seeing expanded emphasis on the upper end of the market through new development, but also pressure in the resale market as people are being priced out of Manhattan.”

The inventory shortage depressed the number of purchases in the quarter. Sales fell 4.1 percent from a year earlier to 1,507, according to the report.
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In Greenpoint and Williamsburg, the median price of all residential properties purchased in the first quarter climbed 13 percent from a year earlier to $956,000, according to a separate report Thursday by brokerage Corcoran Group. Resale condos accounted for most of the sales in those neighborhoods.

Homes sold for a median of $700,000 in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Prospect Heights — an 18 percent jump. In the area that includes the rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Crown Heights and Bushwick, the median price rose 17 percent from a year earlier to $510,000, the brokerage said.

“There’s just an unbelievable demand, and it’s happening in just about every neighborhood,” said Frank Percesepe, a senior vice president at Corcoran Group who oversees Brooklyn sales. “Last year, we didn’t have much inventory at all so people got discouraged. Now, the inventory that’s out there, they’re fighting for it.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, NYC | 187 Comments

Who can afford to live at the shore?

Posted on April 12, 2015 by grim

From the Press of Atlantic City:

Jersey Shore real estate becomes less attainable for young, working families

When Daniel and Dana Smith bought their Ventnor Heights home in 2009, it was “a little rough around the edges.”

There was an oil tank in the backyard that needed to be removed. It needed new floors and carpeting. After Hurricane Sandy, they had to raise the 1950s cottage. But the property cost $165,000 and was within a few blocks of the beach, which was where the couple wanted to raise their three kids, Daniel, 7, Nora, 4, and Carter, 1, after they both grew up on Absecon Island.
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Since moving in, Smith said he has seen several other young families buy homes in the Heights and live in the community year-round, particularly because of its affordability and proximity to the beach. Many of the families were either lifelong friends of the Smiths or have become regulars at impromptu Friday night barbecues.
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But the Heights, which has maintained its affordability, is likely the exception in New Jersey’s shore communities, not the rule. Nowadays, if there are young families in beach towns throughout New Jersey, they are likely just visiting. As real estate in shore towns grows ever more expensive, it is becoming increasingly difficult for young families like the Smiths to call New Jersey’s shore communities home.

“If you drive around, look at new construction. No one is building working-class or middle-class construction anymore,” said Kevin Gillen, a senior research fellow at Drexel University in Philadelphia. Gillen studies the housing market at the Jersey Shore and found that in 2014, sales of shore houses and condos priced at $1 million or more reached all-time highs — even higher than during the peak years of the housing boom. Between the 2000 and 2010 Census, Brigantine lost 519 households with children under the age of 18. Ventnor lost about 300, and Ocean City lost nearly 400. During that time, Ocean City lost a total of 3,677 year-round residents, about 24 percent of its 2000 population.
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In some communities, this trend has alarmed local officials, who are trying — with mixed results — to make their towns more welcoming to young residents.
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But Gillen’s research shows that Sandy took the largest toll on older homes near the bayside in shore communities, which is typically where young families can afford to live. In their place, larger, luxury homes are being constructed.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 3 Comments

NY – Worst place to be a landlord

Posted on April 10, 2015 by grim

From Realtytrac:

House Payments More Affordable Than Fair Market Rents in 76 Percent of U.S. Housing Markets According to County-Level Analysis

Markets with lowest returns on residential rental properties

Markets with the lowest potential annual gross rental yields for homes purchased in February 2015 were New York County/Manhattan, New York (2.34 percent), San Francisco County, California (3.20 percent), Kings County/Brooklyn, New York (3.63 percent), Marin County, California in the San Francisco metro area (3.84 percent), and Williamson County, Tennessee in the Nashville metro area (3.89 percent).

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 38 Comments

What stigma of foreclosure?

Posted on April 9, 2015 by grim

From WSJ:

After Foreclosures, Home Buyers Are Back

The housing industry is slowly seeing the return of buyers like Rick LeBlanc, who lost his Michigan home to foreclosure during the financial crisis but now qualifies for a mortgage again.

Mr. LeBlanc, a 46-year-old residential-construction manager, fell behind on his $1,400 monthly mortgage payments in 2007 after suffering a 20% pay cut. He had tried to sell the property before moving to Florida for a new job. With no takers, he took on renters. But with $225,000 owed on the Highland, Mich., property, he and his wife eventually lost it to foreclosure in 2008.

In the years since, Mr. LeBlanc says he was turned down for car loans and credit cards. His credit ruined, he learned to live without debt and to pay for his family’s expenses with cash.

Then last year, with the foreclosure behind him, he found himself with a near-clean credit slate. The LeBlancs were able to purchase a four-bedroom ranch in St. Augustine Beach, Fla., after borrowing just under $300,000 with a 30-year mortgage carrying a fixed interest rate of about 4.4% from Directors Financial Group, a mortgage lender and broker.

More than five million American families lost their homes to foreclosure between 2007—the year when the crisis kicked up—through the end of last year. Foreclosures and most negative credit events stay on credit reports for up to seven years. For those who lost their homes in the early years of the crisis, credit scores are improving as the black marks drop away, improving their ability to borrow again. This could have widespread implications for the U.S. economy, including a boost in demand for mortgages in the coming years.

Fair Isaac Corp., which developed the widely used FICO credit scores, estimates that there were 910,000 consumers whose credit reports showed they had foreclosure proceedings begin on their homes between October 2007 and October 2008. Of those, some 264,400 had no evidence of the event on their credit reports by last October. That number will rise by up to 645,600 by the end of this year, according to FICO.

“The dark shadow of the foreclosure crisis is finally beginning to fade,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corp. “That should be a positive for single-family housing and, by extension, for the broader economy.”

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, Risky Lending | 58 Comments

Will national home price growth slow in 2015?

Posted on April 8, 2015 by grim

From HousingWire:

Second look: Home price surge unlikely to last

CoreLogic’s (CLGX) report on Tuesday showed tepid monthly home price growth but a solid yearly growth of 5.6% for February.

While it seemed to suggest that price growth shifted into a higher gear at the start of 2015, analysts at Capital Economics say that with housing close to fair value and the Fed set to begin tightening policy later this year, they don’t expect such rapid monthly gains to be sustained for long.

“The 1.1% (monthly) rise in the CoreLogic house price index in February was unusually strong for this time of year,” writes Ed Stansfield, chief property economist for Capital Economics, in a client note. “Indeed, our own seasonal adjustment suggests that prices rose by an even stronger 1.3% (monthly), following January’s downwardly-revised 0.9% gain. This was close to a two-year high, and pushed the annual rate of price growth to 5.6%, up from 5.1% the previous month.” ?

Stansfield says that it’s not surprising that price pressures have increased at the start of this year. After all, the recent pick-up in home sales, along with the subdued number of homes coming onto the market, has caused supply conditions to tighten. In this context, and with real incomes and employment growing strongly, we expect house price inflation to accelerate to around 6.5% this year.

“However, the scale of the revision to last month’s data, which saw a 1.1% (non- seasonally adjusted) rise cut to just 0.6%m/m, mean that we are inclined to take the latest CoreLogic numbers with a pinch of salt,” he says.

The surge in price growth that they suggest is contrary to the moderation implied by the alternative Case-Shiller index.

“We suspect that the truth may lie somewhere in between,” Stansfield says.

He says with expectations of price growth muted, housing now close to fair value and the Fed set to begin raising interest rates later this year, this seems unlikely.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 63 Comments