Budget showdown begins

From the Star Ledger:

Christie’s new budget could have drastic effect on NJ residents

Once Gov. Chris Christie unveils his new budget plan for New Jersey in a Statehouse speech tomorrow, two big issues that have dominated Trenton will likely take center stage: taxes and retirement benefits for public workers.

The Republican governor and his allies have suggested cutting taxes and have hinted that public workers may be asked again to pay more toward their retirement benefits.

But Democrats who control the Legislature have balked at the talk of tax cuts and further pension changes, arguing that the state cannot afford to lose tax revenue because it is strapped for cash to pay its bills as it is. And public workers have given up too much already, they add.

Regardless of what happens, the new budget could have a drastic effect on New Jersey residents. The cost of education, health care and transportation programs is set to explode by billions of dollars over the next four years — and not enough money is coming in to keep them afloat.

The public employee retirement benefits issue has emerged again even though a series of changes in 2010 and 2011 raised the state retirement age to 65 and shifted more pension and health care costs to public workers. In return, the state agreed to pay larger sums into their retirement funds every year after many years of paying nothing at all.

Christie said recently that those state payments — rising to $2.4 billion this year just for the pension fund — severely limit his ability to accomplish other goals, such as longer school days in New Jersey.

“We need to have the conversation now about further changes to our pension system,” Christie said in his State of the State speech last month, sparking angry rebukes from unions and Democrats. “If we do not choose to reduce our soaring pension and debt service costs, we will miss the opportunity to improve the lives of every New Jersey citizen, not just a select few.”

Posted in Economics, Politics, Property Taxes | 91 Comments

Blame it on the snow

From Bloomberg:

Cooling U.S. Home Sales Only Partly Due to Weather: Economy

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped in January to the lowest level in more than a year as harsh winter weather combined with a lack of supply, strict lending rules and declining affordability to depress demand.

Purchases decreased 5.1 percent to a 4.62 million annual rate last month, the fewest since July 2012, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. Sales fell in all four regions of the country, indicating unusually frigid temperatures were only partly to blame.

The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected sales would drop to a 4.67 million rate. Estimates ranged from a 4.5 million pace to 4.9 million. December’s figure was unrevised at a 4.87 million pace.

Compared with a year earlier, purchases decreased 5.1 percent in January on an adjusted basis, today’s report showed. The median price of an existing home increased 10.7 percent from a year earlier to $188,900 in January.

The drop in sales was led by a 7.3 percent slump in the West, followed by a 7.1 percent decrease in the Midwest.

First-time buyers accounted for 26 percent of all purchases in January, the lowest in data going back to October 2008.

The number of existing properties on the market rose 7.3 percent from a year earlier to 1.9 million in January. At the current pace, it would take 4.9 months to sell those houses compared with 4.6 months at the end of December.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 58 Comments

Not even close to over…

From the Record:

NJ mortgage woes easing, but still worse than US

The worst may be over for distressed homeowners in New Jersey, though foreclosure misery remains higher in the state than in the nation as a whole, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

About 16 percent – one in six – of the mortgaged properties in the state were either in foreclosure or late on payments in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the MBA. That’s down from almost 18 percent a year earlier, according to the MBA.

New Jersey’s rate of mortgage distress compares with a national rate of 9.57 percent, or about one in 10 homes with a mortgage. New Jersey has been slower than the nation as a whole to work through the foreclosure crisis, which grew out of lax lending standards during the housing boom, as well as the recession that cost many homeowners their jobs. New Jersey is among the roughly two dozen states in which foreclosures go through the courts, which slows the process.

“States with judicial foreclosure systems still account for most of the loans in foreclosure,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist.

In addition, New Jersey foreclosure activity slowed to a trickle in the wake of questions about whether the mortgage industry was trampling on homeowners’ legal rights in their rush to evict.

But New Jersey has started the foreclosure pipeline moving again. According to the MBA, the state ranks second in the number of foreclosures started during the fourth quarter, right after Maryland.

Nationally, foreclosure and delinquency rates fell to their lowest levels since the first quarter of 2008, the MBA said.

“We continue to see substantial improvement in both delinquency and foreclosure rates, with most measures now back to pre-crisis levels,” Fratantoni said. He said the percentage of foreclosure starts, at 0.54 percent, is back to long-term norms.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 49 Comments

Pay Up!

From UPI:

Monthly home payments climb, while incomes stagnate

Monthly payments on U.S. homes jumped 21 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 from a year earlier, a survey of 325 counties found.
Online housing marketplace and research firm RealtyTrac said Thursday that the payment bump was the result of a 10 percent average gain in the median price of homes and a 33 percent increase in the interest rates for the average 30-year, fixed rate mortgage.

Although home payments have soared, home ownership remains more affordable than renting a home in most markets, said Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac.

On the other hand, he said, home affordability is losing ground due to “still-stagnant median incomes.”

In contrast to the housing market collapse that triggered the recession, the current imbalance in the market is a result of “investors and other cash buyers who are not tethered to the typical affordability constraints,” Blomquist said.

“One simply needs to look at the minimum income needed to qualify for a median-priced home in some markets to realize the extent of the disconnect between prices and income,” Blomquist said.

By example, the minimum income required to buy a median-priced home in Los Angeles County was $68,000 a year ago. That has climbed to $95,000 this year, Blomquist said.

By the numbers, a 30-year, fixed rate loan at 4.46 percent interest, assuming a 20 percent down payment, for a median-priced three-bedroom home cost an average of $865 per month in the fourth quarter of 2013.

A year earlier, all details the same, but assuming a 3.35 percent interest rate, and the average monthly payment came to $714 per month, RealtyTrac said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 102 Comments

“Worry is the interest paid by those who borrow trouble”

HousingWire has been putting out some great pieces lately, looks like a set of new writers that aren’t taking a softball approach. Another great one:

4 signs the real estate market is in trouble — Don’t worry about sales or price numbers — worry about this

1. The Subprime Majority

Recently, I came across a report by the Corporation for Enterprise Development (CFED) titled Assets and Opportunity Scorecard. Some of their findings are quite interesting. According to the CFED Scorecard, 56% of all consumers have sub-prime credit. Sub-prime is “earned”. A consumer has to miss a few payments, or default on a loan or two to earn that status. These 56% cannot, or should not, be taking on more debt, especially a large debt like a mortgage. They may also be struggling with a mortgage that they should not have taken out in the first place.

2. Liquid Asset Poor

CFED found that 44% of households in America are Liquid Asset Poor, defined as having saved less than three months of expenses. As one would expect, 78% of the lowest income households are asset poor, but 25% of middle class ($56k to $91k) households also have less than three months of expenses saved.

3. The Federal Reserve is Spent

QE1, 2 and 3 all involved the purchase of agency MBS. In January 2014, the FOMC announced that it will decrease debt purchases by another $10 billion, from the original $85 billion to $65 billion per month, $30 billion of which is supposed to be for agency MBS. That appears to be all talk. For the first six weeks of 2014, the Fed has already purchased $74.7 billion, or $54 billion per month. They are not only continuing the QE3 purchases, they are still replenishing the prepaid holdings from QE1 and QE2. Mortgage rates are not responding anymore. Though somewhat stabilized, the current rate (30yr) is still a full percent above the low recorded before QE3.

Furthermore, Fed members are only kidding themselves if they think they can ever tighten monetary policy. The national debt is at $17.3 trillion and growing at about $700 billion this year. The cost of financing this debt, per the Treasury, was $415.7 billion in 2013, crudely estimated at an average rate of about 2.5%. At the moment, the 3 months bill is at less than 0.2% interest, while the 10 year note is only at 2.75%. If the cost of financing this debt were to increase by just 1%, it would cost the Treasury $173 billion more a year. There is no way that the dovish Fed chair Yellen would even dream of doing that.

Therefore, the risk of monetary policy is not whether the Fed will tighten, but rather what it can do to repeat a 2008 style bailout. In other words, the Fed as a safety net is full of holes that are big enough for an elephant to pass through.

4. Exhausted Government Intervention

The FHFA just announced that HARP has reached the 3 million mark. We are no closer to reforming Freddie and Fannie than when they were put under conservatorship over five years ago. Numerous state and local governments have deployed their own foreclosure prevention laws and ordinances. The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau has created a mountain of bureaucratic red tape, adding compliance costs to the mortgage industry while providing questionable benefits to the consumer. The FHA is now pushing for lending to borrowers with credit scores as low as 580 only one year after major financial catastrophes such as foreclosure.

In conclusion, the reason I remain bearish on real estate is that when the noise is filtered out, the market has only survived by means of an unprecedented amount of intervention. This dependency is not only unhealthy, its stimulating effect is now fading. If real estate prices cease to appreciate, the market will suffer, same as it did when the sub-prime bubble burst in 2006/2007. The Fed has already gone all in and there is little left it can do. Washington can always create a new set of laws to further erode private property rights as we knew them. Ironically, price appreciation is also not the answer, as it will just widen the income equality gap, turning would-be home owners into rent slaves of Wall Street’s fat cats. It may be best for the market to freeze for an extended period and let consumers catch their breath.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery | 136 Comments

Mixed Bag for NJ Q4 Home Prices

From the Star Ledger:

Home prices drop in NJ markets, according to realtors group

Home prices dropped in three out of four New Jersey metro areas tracked by the National Association of Realtors at the end of the fourth quarter.

Data compiled by the NAR showed median home prices for a single-family home in the Newark-Union area fell 1.1 percent from the previous year to $357,000. They dropped more dramatically in the Trenton-Ewing (down 5.7 percent to $232,900) and Atlantic City (down 4.7 percent to $217,200) areas.

Only the Edison region showed an increase, up 6.1 percent to $308,400.

The median price is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Two other areas monitored by the NAR that cross state lines showed gains. The metropolitan region that includes Northern New Jersey, New York City and White Plains, N.Y., showed a 4.6 percent increase to $462,000. In Western New Jersey, the region that includes Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton jumped 8.7 percent to $199,700.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 63 Comments

Stuck in the middle with you

From the Record:

As home prices rose, high- and low-end towns are left out

As North Jersey home values rebounded during 2013, two market segments were left out: the very low-priced and the very high-priced communities, according to an analysis of property prices by The Record.

The gradual recovery of the housing market in 2013 meant that for the first time since 2006, Bergen County home prices moved up — at least in the first eight months of the year, the latest complete data available from public records. That period covers the busiest time of the year for home sales. Prices were up a median 6.3 percent in Bergen County during the first eight months of the year, compared with the same period in 2012.

But falling values in lower-priced communities such as Paterson meant that Passaic County’s prices were flat, up a scant 0.2 percent.

“Bergen County is generally better positioned than Passaic in terms of proximity to New York City, highways and jobs, and in not having places like Passaic and Paterson in the mix,” said Jeffrey Otteau, an East Brunswick appraiser who tracks home prices statewide.

At both price extremes of the market — high and low — home values underperformed. Homes in communities with a median price of under $250,000 lost about 3.6 percent of their value in the first eight months of last year, and homes in communities where the median is over $700,000 lost 5.1 percent.

“You can’t paint the market right now with one broad brush stroke,” said appraiser Rick DelGuercio, president of Appraisal Systems in Glen Rock. “People ask me, ‘What are you seeing in the market?’ I say, ‘Which market?’ We are seeing strength, but only within certain economic brackets of value.”

At the low end, DelGuercio said, prices have lagged because many of the transactions were distressed sales, where the home had to be sold because the owner fell behind on mortgage payments. Distressed sales tend to sell at a discount to the market. In addition, the difficulty of obtaining mortgages shuts out a lot of low-income potential buyers — the market for these properties.

The pattern is clear in North Jersey’s cities.

“If you’re in suburbia, chances are there are two to three offers on a property,” said John Susani of Coldwell Banker Susani Realty in Paterson. “Down here, never. If you list it at $175,000, you’d never get $175,000.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 22 Comments

Shelter in Place – Why do boomers need to move?

From the NYT:

Retiring on the House

As baby boomers age, reverse mortgages are expected to gain popularity as a means of covering living expenses. Hence, in the future, more homes passed on to children will come with a bill attached — the balance due on these equity loans.

Federally insured reverse mortgages, officially issued as part of the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage program, are a way for homeowners 62 and older to borrow money using their home equity as collateral. The proceeds must first be used to pay off any remaining balance on the mortgage, which frees homeowners from monthly payments. Interest and monthly insurance premiums are charged throughout the life of the loan, and the total becomes due when the borrower dies (or permanently moves out of the home).

A common misconception about reverse mortgages is that the lender takes an equity share in the house, said Vivian Dye, a reverse-mortgage consultant at Atlantic Residential Mortgage in Westport, Conn. “It’s a relationship between the bank and the borrower,” she said, “and it’s the same kind of relationship as a regular loan.”

As the first lien holder on the property title, however, the lender must be repaid when the property changes hands. How the heirs handle repayment depends on how much equity is left in the home and whether they want to keep it.

Under federal regulations, after the last borrower named on the loan has died, the lender must provide up to 30 days for the heirs to decide on a repayment method. Heirs then have up to six months to sell or arrange financing, said Colin Cushman, the chief executive of Generation Mortgage, a reverse-mortgage originator and servicer based in Atlanta. But, he noted, as many as two 90-day extensions are allowed if the heirs can show they are actively trying to sell the property.

Should they wish to retain ownership, the heirs might choose to get a separate mortgage to refinance the home and pay off the reverse mortgage. Or, if there is enough equity in the home, they might choose to sell it and use the proceeds to pay off the loan.

The heirs will not be on the hook for any shortfall should the home fail to sell for enough to pay the loan in full. If the loan balance exceeds the value of the home, the amount owed is limited to 95 percent of the appraised value.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 39 Comments

Live there not here?

From the WSJ:

Gap Between Most, Least Expensive Housing Markets Still Wide

It’s a familiar conversation among couples on the nation’s coasts: Can you imagine what kind of house we could get if we could keep our jobs and move somewhere cheaper? That idea hangs over Wednesday’s Journal article about how some of the nation’s frothiest housing markets are easing back a bit. As the story notes, there’s a fear among many realtors — especially those on the coasts — that the real estate market has come back so swiftly that homes are suddenly unaffordable again.

The idea of a widening price gap was even more evident in the National Association of Realtors’ annual affordability survey, which it published Tuesday as part of its fourth quarter release on Metropolitan home prices.

For most of the nation, homes are extremely affordable, even among those in the struggling middle class. But the coasts — and in particular California — have reverted to an old pattern of having too many people, not enough homes and price growth that outstrip income growth. Renters have it even worse.

After Honolulu, the nation’s least affordable markets were Orange County, San Jose, San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles and San Diego, according to NAR. All had an affordability index lower than 100, which is the level at which a median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for a purchase of a median-priced existing single family home.

Not everyone loves NAR’s affordability index — by that metric, there was only one month during the housing bubble when homes were considered unaffordable — but it gives a sense of how things have changed and where they’re going.

Discovering that California is 1) beautiful and 2) expensive is a generational rite that happens over and over again. But the affordability data beg the question: Did it always cost an insane amount of money to live in California? And is the city to city disparity in home prices growing?

To answer this question we looked at some data provided by Jed Kolko, chief economist of Trulia. As a proxy for geographical price disparities, he used FHFA regional home price data to calculate a contemporaneous ratio of the nation’s 10th most expensive home market to the nation’s 90th expensive home market. “In 2013, for instance, the 10th most expensive metro (which was Boston in 2013) cost 2.86 times per foot as much as the 90th most expensive metro (which was Cincinnati in 2013),” Mr. Kolko wrote in an e-mail.

As the graph shows, the nation’s geographical home price gap was widest in 2007, the peak of the housing bubble. It narrowed during the housing bust — in part because prices cratered so much in expensive markets like California — and has now stabilized. The gap grew a tiny bit wider last year, and many of the most expensive markets in 2013 saw outsized increases, as measured by Trulia’s home price monitor.

So, yes, it’s always been more expensive to buy a home in the nation’s priciest home markets. But after a brief respite during the housing bust, the cost of not living somewhere else appears to be widening once again.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 102 Comments

Mortgage delinquencies dropping – but not fast enough

From HousingWire:

Mortgage delinquency rate hits 5-year record low

The mortgage delinquency rate hit the lowest level in 5 years and dropped below 4% for the first time since 2008.

According to TransUnion’s latest mortgage delinquency report, the rate of borrowers 60 days of more delinquent on their mortgages ended the fourth quarter of 2013 at 3.85%.

This is the eighth consecutive quarter of recorded declines, falling from 4.09% in the third quarter of 2013 and dropping more than 24% from one year earlier when it was 5.08%.

TransUnion gathered data from its proprietary Industry Insights Report, a quarterly overview summarizing data, trends and perspectives on the U.S. consumer lending industry.

But the good news is still a little murky.

“It’s encouraging to see the mortgage delinquency rate drop for two consecutive years, but at the same time, mortgage delinquencies continue to be twice as high as levels observed prior to the housing bubble,” said Steve Chaouki, head of financial services for TransUnion.

“The housing market also still shows some volatility, with both housing prices and originations dropping in the latter part of 2013 after experiencing improvements in the first part of the year,” Chaouki said.

Every state and the District of Columbia witnessed a decrease in their mortgage delinquency rate between the fourth quarter of 2012 and 4Q13.

In addition, in every state except New Jersey and New York, those declines were in the double digits.

Posted in Foreclosures, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

Northern New Jersey Snowblower Report

Open discussion about snow removal, mass transit, traffic, collapsed roofs, ice dams, broken pipes, snow drifts, end of the world.

I should have stayed in Key West.

Posted in Humor, Unrest | 114 Comments

Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!

From HousingWire:

NAR’s chief economist said what about the housing market

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, caught HousingWire’s eye with his recent remarks at the Alabama Commercial Real Estate conference.

Yun gave a decidedly candid assessment of the state of the economy, housing and commercial real estate with a little more red meat, with a little less of the positive that normally comes out of the NAR press room.

HousingWire caught up with Yun Monday and asked him to expand on the central question of his remarks – “Why does it feel like we’re still in a recession?”

“Looking at the economy, last year was overall a sub-par performance with 2% GDP. That is below the historical norm of 3% and it’s been several years of under 3% growth,” he said.

Unemployment is a key factor here, he said.

“This recovery is not feeling right even though unemployment has been declining measurably – from 10% at its peak to 6.6%,” Yun said. “But if you look at the employment rate – not the unemployment rate – you look at how many in the adult population have jobs, and we have not made any progress since the depression began. We are only at 58% of the adult population working now, same as it was in the depth of the recession, and well below the historical trend of 63%.”

And then there is the consumer spending piece of the puzzle.

“Consumer spending has been so-so, muddling along,” he said. “It is implying that consumers are cautious and less confident about the economy.”

That can be seen in business spending, too.

“More importantly with business spending there is a mismatch of the historical relationship between business investment and corporate profit,” Yun said. “”Business investment should follow profit, and that’s not happening. Profit is up but businesses aren’t spending. It implies that businesses are less confident.”

Despite the lack of confidence and the hollow unemployment rate improvement, he still expects growth in 2014.

“Housing affordability is coming down. You have mortgage rates and prices rising in 2014 but it will take growth and job creation on the other side,” he said. “For the year as a whole I think it will be neutral on housing prices.”

Yun said he is already seeing softness in housing readings for the first quarter, and hopes the remainder of the year will be strong enough to balance it out.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 146 Comments

Where will the boomers all go?

From Bloomberg:

Boomers Turn On, Tune In, Drop Out of U.S. Labor Force

When Robin McLane’s generation hit public schools in the 1950s, there were never enough classrooms or teachers to accommodate the bulge, she said. So she’s not surprised about the latest shock that boomers are delivering to the U.S. economy.

“People all around me, relatives and friends, are either retiring, or they’re finding it’s very difficult to find work anywhere from 55 on,” said the 65-year-old, who lives in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, and retired from her job as a high school literacy specialist in June. “For me, I was ready to move on.”

The share of Americans in the labor force, known as the participation rate, is hovering around an almost four-decade low as the population ages and discouraged job seekers give up looking for work. Federal Reserve research shows retirees are at the forefront of the recent exodus, which blunts the impact of policy aimed at boosting the economy and workforce.

In the two years ended 2013, 80 percent of the decrease in labor force participation was due to retirement, according to calculations by Shigeru Fujita, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. And while the number of discouraged workers rose sharply during and after the recession, the group’s ranks have been roughly unchanged since 2011.

That tilts the debate on whether the participation rate can fully rebound alongside the improving economy, as retired workers are unlikely to re-enter the workforce, said Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc., in Stamford, Connecticut. A tighter supply of workers means wage pressures would build faster than otherwise, something Fed Chairman Janet Yellen may watch as a leading indicator of inflation, Girard said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery | 79 Comments

Tidal wave of resets? Not likely

From the NYT:

Repaying Home Equity Loans

Borrowers who opened home-equity lines of credit at the height of the housing bubble should brace for stiff increases in their monthly payments.

Helocs, as they’re known, were aggressively marketed from 2004 to 2007, and now the bills are coming due. These equity lines typically have a 10-year period during which the borrower can use the line of credit and pay only interest. At the end of 10 years, the borrower must begin paying both interest and principal on the outstanding balance, which could add up to hundreds of dollars more a month.

The bulk of the resets are expected from 2015 to 2017, but about $30 billion in outstanding Helocs will reach the end of the interest-only period this year, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which regulates banks. Balances due to reset will rise to an estimated $52 billion in 2015, $62 billion in 2016, and $68 billion in 2017.

A recent report from Moody’s Investors Service offered an example of the coming payment shock for borrowers: A homeowner with a $40,000 Heloc balance and a $210,000 mortgage at 4 percent will see a monthly increase of nearly $300 — to $1,389 from $1,103 — when the equity line converts into a 10-year amortizing loan, assuming an interest rate of 3 percent.

The shock will be even worse for borrowers with equity lines that require balloon payments after the interest-only period; they will owe the balance in full.

Fearing another wave of delinquencies, the comptroller’s office is prodding lenders to assess their level of Heloc risk and be proactive about reaching out to these borrowers.

Homeowners with equity lines nearing the end of their interest-only period shouldn’t wait around in the meantime. “Borrowers should raise their hand very early and expect to be helped,” said Allen J. Jones, a managing director of RiskSpan, a mortgage consulting firm in Washington.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages | 42 Comments

Will 2014 be the year of inventory?

From Bloomberg:

Home Sellers Return for U.S. Spring Market as Buyers Get Relief

Suzanne Baker and her siblings bought a foreclosed home in Atlanta two years ago, added a fourth bathroom, then waited for values to rebound before considering a sale. Now, she says, they’re ready to cash in.

The family last month listed the four-bedroom house in the affluent Buckhead neighborhood for $710,000. It was purchased as an investment for about $375,000 in late 2011, before bulk buyers snapped up many of the area’s distressed homes, helping to drive up prices in Atlanta by more than 25 percent.

“The market is back up,” Baker said. “We think we can make a good amount of profit so we’re going to try.”

For two years, a shortage of sellers like the Bakers has propped up prices across the U.S. as shoppers jostled for a dwindling supply of houses. Now, as the market’s busiest season approaches, escalating values are spurring more listings as homeowners regain equity lost in the worst crash since the 1930s. While new-home construction at a third of its 2006 peak will keep inventory tight, the supply increase is poised to damp price gains while higher mortgage rates cut into demand.

For would-be buyers, more choice would mean relief from the bidding wars of last year, when the supply was at a 12-year low leading into the key spring season. The period traditionally starts in mid-February, with deals picking up in the following months as weather in much of the country starts to warm.

Prices “won’t be rising as much as they were rising last spring.” said Jed Kolko, chief economist of San Francisco-based Trulia Inc., operator of an online property-listing service. “It will be a less frantic market with more inventory and fewer investors.”

“Rising inventory is the primary reason that we expect the pace of price gains to drop back,” Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a telephone interview.

Prices nationwide will climb 4 percent this year compared to 2013’s expected 11 percent gain, according to Diggle. Increasing mortgage rates also will weigh on prices because the higher costs will push some buyers out of the market, while forcing others to look for cheaper deals, he said.

Diggle’s firm projects 30-year fixed mortgage rates of 5 percent by the end of the year. That compares with the average this week of 4.23 percent, according to data from Freddie Mac. Rates will climb as the Federal Reserve scales back bond purchases that have bolstered the housing recovery by holding borrowing costs down, he said.

“Buyer enthusiasm has really softened in the past three months,” said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors group’s chief economist, who said colder-than-normal weather may be partly to blame. “In some markets, prices may rise further and buyers will want to catch it” before the increases put them out of their budget.

Sellers are “nervous about what the spring is going to bring,” said Reid, who is based in Temecula, California. “They don’t know if everybody will list this spring then you’ll have a big counterbalance toward too much inventory, or if there’ll be a crunch again. They figure they’ll get out ahead of the market, list, sell and be done with it.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 85 Comments