“Drive till you qualify”

From Business Insider:

Millennials are moving to ‘the most boring places in the world’

For nearly two decades millennials morphed dense, amenity-rich urban neighborhoods across America into exclusive playgrounds for the young and childless. Compared with Gen Xers and baby boomers, a much larger share of millennials moved to cities in their young adulthood — and stayed for longer. They wanted craft-cocktail bars over picket fences, walkable commutes over two-car garages, SoulCycle over swimming pools. In turn, cities were yassified in their image.Th

That “youthification” trend has accelerated: Cities are getting younger, faster, from San Francisco to Boston, Salt Lake City to Seattle, Austin to Denver. But it’s not millennials who are making them younger — it’s Gen Zers. (Gen Z, it should be noted, isn’t exactly thriving in urban real-estate markets. About a third of Gen Z adults are thought to live with their parents, and many don’t think they’ll ever be able to own a home.) Millennials, meanwhile, are aging out and getting priced out into suburbia.

Recently, the Suburban Jungle Group, a real-estate advisory firm that specializes in helping New York City dwellers move to surrounding suburbs, has been getting a lot of calls from millennials freaking out as their lifestyle grows out of reach. They got pandemic-era deals and signed two-year leases, and they’re seeing their rent skyrocket. “Clients call us in a panic, saying, ‘I got my renewal, I have 30 or 60 days to let them know, and my rent is increasing up to 30-plus percent,'” said Allison Levine, the firm’s director of communications.

The pandemic only steepened a trend that’s been ousting millennials from cities for years: rising housing costs in cities.

Census data indicates that in 2022 adults between 20 and 29 were more likely to say they moved for housing-related reasons than for family- or employment-related reasons. Hyojung Lee and his colleagues at Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies have found that cities with the most expensive rents and the smallest shares of apartments with three or more bedrooms lost the largest shares of their millennial population to the suburbs in recent years.

To Lee and his colleagues’ surprise, millennials aren’t moving to nearby dense, walkable exurbs. They’re getting way out to peripheral suburbs.

“It turned out that millennials are moving to the most boring places in the world,” says Lee, who’s now a professor at Seoul National University. “They’re moving to really single-family-dominated areas with very few urban amenities.”

John Natale, a real-estate agent based in Wall Township, New Jersey, calls this phenomenon “drive till you qualify.” He says it used to be that he could find his clients a home in their price range in whichever county they wanted to be in. Now, because prices in exurbs have swelled since 2022, his millennial clients are being priced out of anything within striking distance of New York. “People are adjusting one, two, maybe even three counties over just to be able to afford a house,” he said.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 43 Comments

Buffalo is the place to be

From Buffalo Rising:

Buffalo’s Real Estate Revolution: How It Became 2024’s Hottest Housing Market

In the heart of the Great Lakes region, a remarkable transformation is unfolding. Buffalo, once overshadowed by larger cities, has surged to the forefront as the hottest major housing market of 2024. This accolade, bestowed by Zillow’s comprehensive analysis, reflects a synergy of factors making Buffalo uniquely appealing, especially to progressive, local homeowners.

At the core of Buffalo’s allure is affordability. In a landscape where housing costs soared to record highs in 2023, Buffalo presents a refreshing contrast. The typical home value in Buffalo stands at $248,445, with a mortgage payment of just $1,792 for a 5% down payment, and a modest average rent of $1,257. This affordability, a beacon in the turbulent real estate seas, is instrumental in drawing new residents and retaining existing ones.

But affordability isn’t Buffalo’s only charm. The city boasts the highest number of new jobs per new home permitted, a vital indicator of economic vitality and a predictor of housing demand. This job growth, coupled with an increase in owner-occupied households, signifies a robust, expanding community. Buffalo’s housing market is buoyed by this employment surge, ensuring a steady influx of new residents eager to call this city home.

Buffalo’s rise is set against a backdrop of changing trends in the national housing market. Zillow’s analysis of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas revealed that markets like Buffalo, which blend affordable housing with strong job prospects, are leading the charge. This shift is significant, as in previous years, markets like Charlotte, Cleveland, and Atlanta were in the limelight, while cities like San Antonio have seen a decline.

The methodology behind this ranking is comprehensive, taking into account factors such as expected home value appreciation, new jobs per housing unit, and the speed of home sales. These elements combine to create a dynamic, yet stable housing market in Buffalo, marking it as a location of opportunity and growth.

Buffalo’s ascent to the top of Zillow’s 2024 hottest housing markets is a testament to the city’s unique blend of affordability, economic growth, and community vitality. This achievement reflects a broader trend of shifting preferences towards markets that offer both financial and lifestyle benefits. For Buffalo homeowners, this news is both a validation of their choice and a beacon of hope for the city’s future.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 52 Comments

Online gaming not good for the economy?

Who could’a knew? From Gambling News:

Report Argues New Jersey iGaming Has Harmed the Economy

The gambling industry can provide significant economic boosts to certain areas, creating new jobs and generating millions in tax money. This argument continues to be used by proponents of the industry in many states where certain verticals are not yet legal. However, a recent report shows that New Jersey’s online casino industry is not as beneficial as initially expected.

According to research commissioned by the Campaign for Fairer Gambling, $2.4 billion has been wagered online since 2022. This activity has ended up decreasing the state’s economic activity by roughly $180 million, experts add.

NERA Economic Consulting, which did the research, believes that if this $2.4 billion was spent elsewhere, the benefits for the state would have been much greater. According to the consultancy, spending this money in other sectors would have paid out more in wages across the state, which would then have been spent in other parts of the economy.

For comparison, the $2.4 billion spent on online gambling paid $110 million in wages, which ended up generating $22 million in spending. However, another recreational industry would have paid out $1 billion in wages, generating $200 million in spending, according to NERA.

To make matters worse, much of the tax money generated by the vertical end up offset by the costs tied to online gambling-related issues, according to a study by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research in London.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 17 Comments

NJ Industrial On Fire

From ROI-NJ:

C&W report: Industrial market records highest level of leasing in 2 years

Cushman & Wakefield recently released its fourth-quarter 2023 industrial and office statistics for northern and central New Jersey, showing New Jersey’s industrial market recorded its highest level of quarterly new leasing activity in two years and, while demand for highly amenitized, Class A office properties has sustained, overall office leasing has continued to slow.

“New Jersey exhibited sustained demand in the industrial sector in the fourth quarter, marking the highest level of quarterly new leasing activity in two years, with central New Jersey capturing most of the demand,” John Obeid, senior research manager for the New Jersey region, said. “With heightened new leasing activity, we also saw a surge in lease renewals, with the year’s total renewal activity standing as the second-highest in the last decade. Class A warehouse space remained resilient, sustaining positive net absorption for the 34th consecutive quarter.”

New Jersey’s industrial market recorded its highest level of quarterly new leasing activity in two years, with 6.4 million square feet leased during the fourth quarter, up from the two-year quarterly average of 5.3 million square feet. Central New Jersey continued to capture most of the demand in the state, commanding a substantial 68.2% share of the total leasing activity throughout 2023. Leasing activity in central New Jersey reached 14.7 million square feet, marking a 20.9% increase compared to the previous year.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 47 Comments

NJ real estate will do great … as long as rates drop

From NJ Spotlight News:

NJ home sales poised for a 2024 comeback?

In the first days of the new year, New Jersey analysts predicted that New Jersey’s beleaguered housing market is poised to make a comeback in 2024 if interest rates continue to fall.

Home sales in the Garden State plunged 23% last year, even as prices rose. And for now, inventory is very low. But analysts told NJ Spotlight News that the market could change if the Federal Reserve decides to lower interest rates.

“I’m very optimistic,” says Gloria Monks, president of New Jersey Realtors. “I do feel that buyers will have more of an opportunity to come back into the market. If indeed the interest rates do come down, it is going to give them much more buying power. It’s hundreds of dollars every month in their pocket once that occurs.”

What can buyers and sellers expect? For now, Realtor.com forecasts an almost 11% drop in existing home sales — with prices up 3% — and mortgage rates averaging 6.8%. Ken Baris, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, said homeowners who locked in very low mortgage rates years ago and delayed selling when the market went nuts will finally feel motivated to list their properties in 2024.

“I would take a huge bet, that you will see more transactions in 2024 than 2023,” he said. But again, he said a lot depends on interest rates.

“When interest rates go below 5% — if they do — you’ll see a blizzard of listings hit the market like we haven’t seen in an incredibly long time,” Baris said. “And I’ve told every realtor in our company and all of our offices, if rates go below 5%, cancel your vacation because it’s all hands on deck. We’re gonna be listing and selling an incredible amount of real estate.”

Realtors advised that South Jersey’s housing market around Philadelphia is more fluid because there’s more space to build. But they suspect bidding wars will continue. So, what should anxious home buyers do? Market analyst Jeff Otteau recommended home buyers start looking in February.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate | 110 Comments

Seems like a long shot

From NJ1015:

NJ one of 3 states expected to see housing market crash in 2024

It looks like New Jersey’s housing market may soon run out of steam. And that’s unfortunate for so many living in The Garden State.

According to a recent report released by ATTOM, New Jersey is among one of the top three states expected to see a housing market crash in 2024.

Illinois and California are the other two states expected to see housing market trouble in the months ahead. The list also includes individual cities in multiple states, such as New York City.

According to Newsweek, “Real estate markets in Illinois, New Jersey and California are at risk of downturn next year due to higher levels of foreclosures, unemployment and underwater mortgages.”

In New Jersey, the areas that are particularly vulnerable in 2024 are “Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties.” Those areas in the Garden State are facing similar challenges as New York City.

According to the report released by ATTOM, those areas showed “the most vulnerability based on the portion of mortgage balances that exceed the value of the homes, average local wages required for home ownership expenses, and local unemployment rates.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 195 Comments

Predictions 2024!

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Recession / Economic

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Commodities

Inflation

Mortgage Rates

Geopolitics

Whatever

Posted in General | 140 Comments

What’s next year got in store?

From Bankrate:

2024 first-quarter housing trends: Rates begin to thaw

“We typically see housing inventory remaining low until February and then ramping up from March onward,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “Homebuying and open house visits also ramp up starting in March.”

Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Company, agrees. “Quarter number one is usually something of a reset for the housing market,” he says. “Prices and sales volume decline toward the end of the previous year, and January is often the weakest month in terms of pricing, inventory and sales activity. But things start to pick up in February and March. I expect the first quarter of 2024 to feel like a continuation of 2023, with relatively weak home sales and modest price increases. Still, mortgage rates have recently dropped at the quickest pace in decades, and will probably continue to decline through the first quarter — bringing more prospective buyers back into the market.”

Shri Ganeshram, founder and CEO of real estate investment site Awning, also anticipates an atypical uptick in buyer activity this quarter, which “could lead to a more dynamic market than usual for this period.”

“We’ve turned a corner, with the Fed done raising interest rates, inflation coming down and modest economic growth expected in 2024,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst. “This has been beneficial to mortgage rates as bond yields have fallen a full percentage point since October and further declines are on the horizon in the new year.”

McBride foresees the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage loan averaging 6.75 percent this quarter, versus 6.15 percent for the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage loan. Yun’s prediction is similar: 6.8 percent for the 30-year home loan, on average. Sharga also expects rates to fall within the 6.5 to 6.75 percent range in the first quarter.

But not everyone is as optimistic: “I predict a slight increase in mortgage rates, potentially reaching around 7.75 percent and 6.65 percent, respectively, for 30-year and 15-year loans based on current economic trends and monetary policies,” Ganeshram says.

The good news is that home sales likely bottomed out in 2023 and are due to improve slightly in 2024. “We foresee 5.5 million combined new and existing home sales in 2024, up from 4.8 million in 2023,” says Yun. “Days on the market will remain swift at around 25 from listing to contract signing.”

“We can probably expect to see up to 800,000 sales during the first quarter, with many homes continuing to sell briskly — often going from listing to sale in under 25 days,” Sharga says.

The nationwide shortage of housing inventory continues to be an issue for homebuyers. “Mortgage applications have recently increased in response to lower rates, signaling there is still enough demand on the sidelines to continue the supply shortage in 2024,” Chen says.

Sharga echoes those sentiments: “We are unlikely to see the supply of existing homes for sale rise appreciably until mortgage rates come back down in the 5 percent range,” he says. “Housing starts for single-family residences have ticked up a bit, so we may see a little more new home inventory, but not enough to make up the difference in what we would normally have on the market with existing homes. So supply will remain constrained, giving the advantage to sellers over buyers.”

Others see silver linings ahead: “The worst of the housing shortage is over,” says Yun. “I expect approximately 30 percent higher inventory and more choices for buyers in 2024.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 40 Comments

NJ Gets Coal for Christmas

From NJBIZ:

NJ unemployment rate ticks up in November jobs report 

Just before the holiday, the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development released the state’s November jobs report, which showed an increase of 4,100 jobs (3,100 in the private sector), along with the unemployment rate inching up 0.1% to 4.7%.

“Sadly, New Jersey got a lump of coal in the form of the November job report,” said Charles Steindel, former chief economist of the New Jersey Department of the Treasury, in his analysis for thinktank Garden State Initiative (GSI). “The state’s unemployment rate moved up from 4.6% to 4.7% in the face of a 10,700 decline in the labor force. The number of employed state residents fell 15,500.”

“The holiday season is supposed to be the ‘most wonderful time of the year’ but not for New Jersey’s economy, which this report indicates is worsening each month,” said GSI President Regina Egea. “The state’s unemployment rate went up again and is now a full point higher than the national average. Notably, 65,000 more New Jerseyans are without a job today as compared to July.”

Steindel noted that the payroll numbers were “less bad, but hardly robust,” with gains in four out of nine major sectors.

“There was an increase of 4,100 jobs from the revised October level, but the October level is 2,800 less than originally reported. Thus, the increase from the first October estimate was a miniscule 1,300,” Steindel explained.

“Across the industry sectors, construction (-2,400) and information (-900) reported substantial losses, while education and health services (+3,200) and leisure and hospitality (+2,300) had good gains,” he continued. “Perhaps it should be noted that the two sectors with the large losses are relatively high wage, while the two with the large gains have many lower-paying jobs.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 120 Comments

Home prices rise at the fastest rate of the year

From CNN:

US home prices hit another record high in October, rising for the ninth straight month

US home prices continued to rise in October, hitting a new record high and marking the ninth-consecutive month of increases, according to data released Tuesday. Together with soaring mortgage rates that month, rising home prices have made this the least affordable housing market in a generation.

Even as mortgage rates lingered above 7% in October, reaching the highest levels in 23 years, historically low inventory continued to push up the price of a home.

Prices rose 0.6% from the month before, according to seasonally adjusted data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index.

Compared to a year ago, the national composite index covering all nine U.S. census divisions reported a 4.8% annual change in October from the year before, up from a 4% change in the previous month.

“U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October,” said Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P DJI in a statement.

This marked the strongest national growth rate since 2022.

Part of the reason prices have climbed was because of stubbornly low inventory. People that could absorb higher mortgage rates or who were paying cash competed for the few homes available. Combined with the fear from many buyers that if they don’t buy now, interest rates could increase even more, prices moved higher.

Each index — the 10-city, 20-city and National Index — remained at all-time highs, with eight of 20 cities registering all-time highs: Miami, Atlanta, Chicago, Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, New York and Cleveland.

Detroit kept pace as the fastest growing market for the second month in a row, registering an 8.1% annual gain.

San Diego followed with 7.2% annual gains, and New York with a 7.1% gain.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 89 Comments

Out of reach … forever?

From NPR:

Most homes for sale in 2023 were not affordable for a typical U.S. household

If you found the U.S. housing market impossible this year you were not alone. In fact, you were in the vast majority, according to a new analysis by the real estate group Redfin.

Just 15.5% of homes for sale were affordable for a typical U.S. household, the lowest share since Redfin started tracking this a decade ago. A home is deemed affordable if the estimated mortgage payment is no more than 30% of the average local monthly income. 

Affordability plunged 40% from before the pandemic, and 21% from just last year. Redfin says spiking mortgage rates were a key reason why.

Normally, higher rates should push home prices down. But Redfin also finds the number of affordable home listings dropped sharply in 2023. That’s partly because many people don’t want to sell now and give up a much lower mortgage rate, and that tight market has helped keep prices high.

Normally, higher rates should push home prices down. But Redfin also finds the number of affordable home listings dropped sharply in 2023. That’s partly because many people don’t want to sell now and give up a much lower mortgage rate, and that tight market has helped keep prices high.

Redfin finds white households could afford far more listings than Hispanic and — especially — Black households, who’ve faced decades of housing discrimination. Only 7% of listings this year were affordable for a typical Black household. 

There were also enormous geographic differences. The biggest drops in affordability were in smaller cities, including Kansas City, Mo., Greenville, S.C., and Worcester, Mass. The report says that’s “because housing costs have relatively more room to rise, and local incomes are often climbing at a fraction of the pace that mortgage payments are.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 57 Comments

Fitch – NJ is overpriced

From Fitch:

Homes Prices Remain Overvalued in 88% of the U.S.

Fitch Ratings-New York-20 December 2023: Fitch Ratings estimates that national home prices were 9.4% overvalued for 2Q2023 on a population-weighted average basis and expects overvaluation to remain elevated due to the continued rise in home prices in Q3. 

The increase in Fitch’s overvaluation estimate was driven primarily by the accelerated home prices, as the uptick in overvaluation occurred in more than two-thirds of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) where home prices rose in 2Q2023. Meanwhile, other factors remained comparatively stable, leading to a more moderate increase in the sustainable home price index. 

Overvaluation still dominated nationwide. As of 2Q2023, home prices in 88% of the country’s MSAs were overvalued, with 55% of these areas by 10% or more. The top three overvalued MSAs in the U.S. are Charleston-North Charleston, SC; El Paso, TX; and Camden, NJ.

Fitch attributes the decline in existing home sales to affordability challenges for home buyers due to a persistently high mortgage rate environment and the sustained pressure of elevated home prices. Additionally, a stagnant supply contributes to both rising prices and lower sales volume, further impacting home sales.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 90 Comments

Home sales tick up, slightly

From the Real Deal:

Existing home sales rise for first time since May

It was by no means a blizzard of activity, but existing home sales increased from October to November, ending a cold spell for the moribund U.S. market.

Sales of existing homes increased by 0.8 percent from October to November, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.82 million, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year, existing home sales dropped 7.3 percent from 4.12 million a year ago.

The metric excludes new construction, which is gaining market share as for-sale inventory remains historically low.

While the jump in activity was modest, and occurred only in the Midwest and South, a monthly gain is unusual for this time of year and another positive sign for a housing market hampered by reluctant sellers and elevated mortgage rates. The nationwide increase in existing home sales came despite a 7.2 percent monthly decrease in the West and a 2.1 percent drop in the Northeast.

Home prices continued to edge up. The median sale price of existing homes rose 4 percent year-over-year in November to $387,600. All four regions tracked in the report posted annual sale price increases, led by a 5.3 percent gain in the West.

For-sale inventory at the end of last month was 1.13 million homes, falling 1.7 percent from October to return to September’s level. Inventory was up 0.9 percent from a year before.

Unsold inventory amounted to a 3.5-month supply at last month’s sales pace, also down from October but up from a year ago.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 61 Comments

Too Soon?

From CNN Business:

America may have done the impossible: Avoid a recession

For the past couple years, all the smart money was on a US recession taking place sometime before the next presidential election. To be clear: That absolutely could still happen. In the world of economics, nothing is certain. But it’s looking extremely unlikely that America’s economy will go into reverse anytime soon.

Around this time last year, some of the most closely watched economists were all predicting a recession. As the year went on, they revised their forecast, instead penciling in a mild recession. But like the Federal Reserve, many began ditching the recession narrative altogether.

Which raises the question: How in the world did America avoid a recession? The Fed spent the past 20 months doing everything in its power to slow America’s economy down to combat runaway inflation with full awareness that it could inadvertently cause millions of Americans to lose their jobs.

It hiked its key interest rate target 11 times over that span — and at a historic pace. The Fed hadn’t raised rates so much and that fast since America’s last inflation crisis 40 years ago — and in 1980, the Fed hiked rates so high that it plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

The Fed also sold off trillions of dollars of bonds and other debt it had bought up over the years, sapping demand for Treasuries, which pushed yields higher. Consumer loans, mortgages, credit cards and other lending rates tied to those yields surged, devastating America’s housing market, which is on pace for its worst year since 1993.

Yet nearly two years into the Fed’s campaign to slow America’s economy, it may have done the impossible: rein in inflation without plunging us into a recession.

Posted in General | 111 Comments

Like the good ol’ days

From Business Insider:

HENRYs are turning to a little-known and risky type of mortgage as home prices soar 

With home prices and mortgage rates sky high, potential homeowners — even those with deep pockets — are looking for ways to ease the cost burden.

Some ​​Americans who are high earners, but not rich yet, known as HENRYs, are opting for unusual interest-only mortgages that boost affordability, at least in the short-term. These loans allow the borrower to pay just interest and none of the principal for a certain number of years. The loans are generally reserved for more affluent buyers of higher-end property who can afford a sizeable down payment and have sufficient money saved.

There are some attractive benefits of this kind of loan. They offer lower monthly payments at first, which allow borrowers to invest the money they would otherwise spend to pay off their house on other, higher-return investments. They also allow borrowers whose incomes are expected to rise in the future to buy more expensive homes than they otherwise would be able to afford.

There are also higher risks than a conventional mortgage. Borrowers won’t gain equity in their home, beyond the down payment they made. They’re on the hook for potentially higher mortgage payments in the future, and if their home value declines, they could lose the equity they have or the ability to refinance. Some interest-only loans require borrowers to pay off the entirety of the principal once the interest-only period ends.

When Sam, whose last name is known to Business Insider, and his wife were looking to buy a home in Brooklyn in the spring of 2022, the homes they liked largely exceeded their budget, which was between $2–$2.5 million.

But one day they got an unexpected opportunity. Their neighbors directly across the street from their rental apartment in Carroll Gardens were about to put their three-bedroom brownstone on the market. The house was exactly what they were looking for, except it was priced at $3.1 million. But their neighbors offered to sell it to them before putting it on the market. Without broker’s fees, the home would cost about $2.8 million.

Sam, a self-employed marketing consultant, was initially concerned the house was just too risky and expensive of a purchase. The future of New York City real estate was still somewhat unclear as many who fled the city when the pandemic hit were slow to return.

But when First Republic bank offered him and his wife a 40-year interest-only loan, they sprung for it. They paid a 20% down payment and locked in a low mortgage rate of between 2.6 and 2.7% for the first 10 years of the loan, and a guarantee that their rate would double at that point.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, NYC, Risky Lending | 112 Comments