Pending home sales disappoint in August

Posted on September 30, 2011 by grim

From the Wall Street Journal:

Home-Sales Index Shows More Clouds on Horizon

An index that tracks contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 1.2% in August, clouding an already-bleak outlook for the housing sector, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

The index of pending home sales, which reflects contracts signed but deals not yet closed, fell to 88.6 from 89.7 in July. That is higher than August 2010—but last year’s levels plummeted after a federal tax credit for homebuyers expired.

The Northeast saw the biggest declines, which the trade group partly blamed on Hurricane Irene delaying deals. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun also cited tight credit conditions and Americans’ hesitance to form households, such as college graduates and new entrants to the work force still living with their parents, amid an uncertain economy.

Citing record-low interest rates and rock-bottom home prices, economists say the housing market should be much further along in recovering. “It’s a pretty good time to get involved in the market, but a lot of people are unable to take advantage of this situation,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, a macroeconomic consultancy.

Mr. Dales partly blamed the weak labor market and stagnant income growth. “There also is a general decrease in the desire of people to own a home,” he said. “Under normal times, the housing market would rebound very quickly. But the legacy of recession and the financial crisis means that won’t happen.”

The housing market has remained sluggish despite mortgage rates that have fallen to their lowest levels in more than 60 years. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.01% for the week ended Thursday, according to a survey by Freddie Mac.

Also from the WSJ:

Behind the Numbers: Pending Sales Prompt Concern

Here’s what industry watchers had to say:

Joshua Shapiro, economist, MFR Inc.: “In absolute terms this is a very depressed level, and with prices in most areas either still declining or flat, there is little incentive for buyers to be aggressive. Therefore, the overhang of unsold homes (particularly with huge amounts either in the foreclosure process or soon to be in it) is likely to persist for a prolonged period of time.”

Dan Oppenheim, builder analyst, Credit Suisse: “It is still clear that heightened economic concerns are taking a toll on already-fragile homebuyer confidence, offsetting the benefits of favorable affordability. Additionally, our checks suggest the intention to keep rates at low levels for a prolonged period and little expectation for a near-term rebound in home prices is leading to a lack of urgency among buyers.”

Adam Rudiger, builder analyst, Wells Fargo: “Despite very attractive mortgage rates (the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate in August was 4.27% versus 4.55% in July and 4.43% in August 2010), turnover in the existing market remains depressed.”

Michael Rehaut, builder analyst, J.P. Morgan: “We continue to believe that housing demand effectively remains near its cyclical trough and is unlikely to retest its [fourth-quarter 2008/first-quarter 2009] lows, absent another material recession. Moreover, we believe supply continues to remain manageable, as existing homes for sale are 22% below peak levels and foreclosures continue to liquidate at a moderate pace.”

Posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 202 Comments

Fed out of bullets?

Posted on September 29, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Bernanke calls for more housing help from Washington

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech Tuesday afternoon on emerging market economies, but it was his remarks about the state of the still-ailing U.S. economy in a Q&A after the speech that garnered the most attention.
…
The Fed Chairman also called on Congress to do more to help boost a U.S. housing market that remains, at best, in the doldrums. Bernanke said “strong housing policies to help the housing market recover” were needed to advance a tepid U.S. economy, along with a focus on jobs and solving budget imbalances.

More than 6.3 million U.S. homes are 30 days or more behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure, according to mortgage services firm Lender Processing Services (LPS: 14.59 0.00%). And while housing prices are improving month-over-month, prices remain well below year-ago levels — the most recent Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller housing price index found home prices down 4.1% in July across 20 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.

Mortgage rates have touched historic lows in recent weeks, after the Fed introduced plans on Sept. 21 to buy $400 billion of Treasury bonds in an effort to lower long-term borrowing costs. The Fed also said it would invest reinvest principal payments from agency debt into additional agency mortgage-backed securities investments. But with jobs a looming concern, questions remain as to just how many borrowers will be able to take advantage of lower rates.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, hinted Wednesday in his own remarks at what sort of policy options might best for housing — arguing that new policies were needed to allow underwater homeowners to refinance their loans.

“Clearly getting more money into the hands of homeowners who spend it could help to fuel GDP growth,” he said. “This would reduce one of the impediments to a more significant effect from the monetary policy actions taken to date.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 148 Comments

July Case Shiller

Posted on September 28, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Cities Fell 4.1% in Year Ended July

Home prices in the U.S. declined less than forecast in July from a year earlier, a sign bank delays in processing foreclosures may have temporarily slowed the slump in real-estate values.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.1 percent from July 2010, after a revised 4.4 percent drop in the 12 months to June, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 4.4 percent decline. Values were little changed in July from the prior month after adjusting for seasonal changes, the same as in June.
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Estimates for the price change from July 2010 ranged from declines of 4 percent to 5.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The Case-Shiller measure is based on a three-month average, which means the July data were influenced by transactions in June and May. July’s year-to-year drop was the smallest since March.

Prices in the 20 cities rose 0.9 before adjusting for seasonal changes in July after climbing 1.2 percent in June.

“This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “We are still far from a sustained recovery.”

From the Record:

Home prices in region down 3.7 percent

Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, dropped 3.7 percent in the year ended in July, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday. Nationally, prices slipped 4.1 percent in that period.

From June to July, however, prices ticked up, both nationally and in the region.

What it means: Home values nationally have returned to the levels of summer 2003, while in the area, prices have returned to the levels of April 2004. Values have dropped about 31 percent nationally and 22 percent regionally since their peaks in mid-2006.
…
In Bergen County, the median price of a single-family home was $460,000 in July, down 7.8 percent from a year earlier, while the number of sales rose 15 percent. In Passaic County, the median price dropped 7.2 percent to $280,275, while the number of sales rose 2.3 percent.

These numbers are from the New Jersey and Garden State multiple listing services and reflect the mix of homes sold during the month. Case-Shiller does not break down sales by county, but it is considered a more reliable barometer because it tracks the value of the same properties over time.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

Renting perceptions rapidly changing

Posted on September 26, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

NMHC: Housing policy must adapt to growing renter population

The United States needs to shift its housing policy to recognize the rising number of Americans opting for rental housing and reduce incentives that prioritize homeownership, according to the National Multi Housing Council.

“We have a tremendous opportunity to create thriving and sustainable communities,” said council President Doug Bibby in a presentation to the National Apartment Summit in Tysons Corner, Va., earlier this week. “But only if we change our thinking about rental housing and renters.”

There is a growing disconnect between America’s housing needs and current housing policy, he told the group.

“The U.S. is on the cusp of fundamental change in our housing dynamics as changing demographics and changing housing preferences drive more people away from the typical suburban house and toward the type of housing that rental housing offers,” Bibby said.

“Families with children made up more than half of households decades ago, but they made up only one-third of households in 2000, and by 2025, they will be closer to one-fifth,” he said.

More than 14% of U.S. households live in apartments, and in this decade, renters could make up more than half of all new households as their ranks swell by more than 7 million, according to the council, a research and lobbying group for the apartment industry.

Bibby argued housing policy should change to de-emphasize homeownership, an area where he said incentives “overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy and distort the economy by encouraging people to over-invest in housing.”

Posted in Employment, National Real Estate | 240 Comments

“Suzanne researched this, this listing is special”

Posted on September 23, 2011 by grim

From the NY Times:

One Town, but Two Markets

OVER the last six months or so, it seems several New Jersey towns have developed symptoms of split personality — at least when it comes to their real estate markets.

Take Montclair, for instance: the median sales price has been declining, as anyone can clearly see from looking at the downward pitch of the line graph updated weekly on many brokers’ Web pages by Altos Research. But decline means different things in different places. In the area often called Upper Montclair (ZIP code 07043), the descent to $615,000 from $700,000 was herky-jerky, up and down, between April 1 and the middle of September, according to Altos. But in the rest of town (ZIP code 07042), the median skied nonstop down a steep mountain: $700,000 all the way to $400,000.

Likewise, median prices harmonized in Millburn Township and its Short Hills section — another area with its own ZIP code — while clearly singing different parts. Millburn/Short Hills is one of the very few communities in the state where sales values are rising again, according to Karen Eastman Bigos, a broker with the Towne Realty Group.

The median for the township rose to $620,000 from $570,000 from April 1 to mid-September. Over the same period, the median for Short Hills rose to $1.6 million from $1.5 million. That means property in Short Hills escalated more in value — by about a percentage point — even though it is more than twice as expensive.

“How do we explain these things?” asked Ken Baris, the president of Jordan Baris Realty, a company that recently developed a “hyperlocal” computer system for analyzing price trends by school district or neighborhood. “Local, local, local — there is no other word but local in real estate.”
…
In Montclair, where there is a concerted emphasis on thinking of the town as one diverse whole — children are bused to “magnet” schools, and the moniker “Upper” is discouraged as divisive — several agents resisted comparisons of trends on the two sides of town.

“Sometimes people come in saying they only want to buy in the one ZIP code, 07043,” said Linda Grotenstein, an agent at Coldwell Banker. “I usually find they have a misunderstanding of what the ZIP codes imply.”

The housing stock is more homogeneous in the northern half: mostly well-groomed Victorians with three to six bedrooms. The south end has far greater range: everything from run-down, run-of-the-mill triplexes on narrow lots to peerless mansions on manicured grounds, in the “estate section.”

In fact, by Mr. Baris’s reckoning, the estate section in the southern part of Montclair has kept overall average sales value afloat. It had 42 listings this year, and 18 houses sold, at a median price of $1.218 million, 31 percent more than last year.

“If you took out the estate section,” Mr. Baris said, “Montclair would have depreciated as a town.”
…
In Millburn/Short Hills, Ms. Bigos ascribes the huge price disparity to the teardown craze that swept Short Hills starting in the late 1990s.

“That is when the spread started to widen,” said Ms. Bigos, a lifelong resident of Short Hills. “All the new houses going up doubled and tripled in value.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 155 Comments

Upside surprise for home sales in August

Posted on September 22, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased More Than Forecast

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose more than anticipated in August as investors scooped up distressed properties with cash.

The 7.7 percent increase left purchases at a five-month high 5.03 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The August pace compares with a peak of 7.08 million in 2005, before the housing boom turned into a subprime-mortgage bust that dragged the economy into an 18-month recession.

“Housing’s been down for so long, we should take whatever good news we can get,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose forecast was among the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “Interest rates are low and pricing is attractive and people are responding.”
…
The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 4.75 million rate. Forecasts in the survey of 74 economists ranged from 4.5 million to 4.99 million.

From Reuters:

US Aug existing home sales up but outlook still grim

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to their highest level in five months as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into a still moribund market.

The data did little to change the view that housing, hobbled by a burst bubble which triggered a major recession, will not help the economy much anytime soon.

Sales climbed 7.7 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

“This housing market is still very distressed,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

“We have to get a lot of good news for a meaningful turnaround in the housing market,” he said.

The outlook for housing prices remains grim. A survey by MacroMarkets LLC showed economists expect home prices to rise just 1.1 percent a year through 2015.

From CNBC:

Existing-Home Sales Jump 7.7%, Well Above Forecasts

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to the fastest annual pace since March as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into the market, the National Association of Realtors said.

ales climbed 7.7 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the NAR said Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

Rising rents are also helping Americans decide to buy homes, the NAR said.

“Favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations,” Lawrence Yun, chief NAR economist, said in a statement.

Yun said the increase in sales came despite some disruptions from Hurricane Irene, which battered much of the East Coast at the end of the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 1.4 percent to a 4.71-million-unit pace. Compared to August 2010, sales were 18.6 percent higher.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 119 Comments

2015? That isn’t so bad…

Posted on September 21, 2011 by grim

From the WSJ:

Home Forecast Calls for Pain

Economists, builders and mortgage analysts are predicting the weakened U.S. economy will depress housing prices for years, restraining consumer spending, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure and clouding prospects for a sustained recovery.

Home prices are expected to drop 2.5% this year and rise just 1.1% annually through 2015, according to a recent survey of more than 100 economists to be released Wednesday. Prices have already fallen 31.6% from their 2005 peak, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller 20-city index.

If the economists’ forecast is accurate, it means housing faces a lost decade in which home prices recover just a fraction of what was lost between 2005 and 2015, leaving millions of homeowners with little, if any, equity in their homes. The survey was conducted for MacroMarkets LLC, a financial technology company co-founded by Yale University economist Robert Shiller.

The housing bust has chilled consumer spending—the largest single driver of the U.S. economy—with eroding home equity contributing to the so-called reverse wealth effect that prompts people to spend cautiously because they feel poorer.

One in five Americans with a mortgage owes more than their home is worth, and $7 trillion of homeowners’ equity has been lost in the bust. Homeowners’ equity as a share of home values has fallen to 38.6% from 59.7% in 2005.

“With all of the economic turmoil, both domestic and international, there’s not much that points to an improving housing market at any point in the near future,” said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the U.S.’s seventh-largest builder by deliveries.

While home prices aren’t falling at anywhere near the pace of 2008, one worry is that even modest declines become self-reinforcing, pushing more homeowners underwater and exacerbating the downdraft caused by more foreclosures.
…
Rising home prices traditionally lead homeowners to spend more money, even during periods of economic sluggishness, creating jobs.

But “that cycle can cut the other way,” said James Parrott, a top White House housing adviser. “As the value of a family’s home drops, that can really go from a lever of savings to a drain on that savings.”

Those concerns prompted the White House earlier this year to begin canvassing experts on how to attack the excess inventory of distressed properties and troubled mortgages.
…
Housing markets are also in bad shape because would-be first-time homeowners have retreated amid grim economic news. Many current homeowners, meanwhile, don’t have enough equity to move, chilling the crucial “trade-up” market. That has left housing heavily dependent on investors buying homes at discounts with cash.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 140 Comments

It really is different this time

Posted on September 20, 2011 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

How the real estate market has changed the responsibilities of real estate agents

Emotions run high when buying or selling a house, particularly in today’s real estate market. Sellers feel like they’re practically giving away their houses and may not have the finances to meet a buyer’s demands for repairs. Buyers feel they are the brave ones and should be getting their money’s worth after making such a major financial commitment.

As a result, real estate agents say, their jobs are as much therapist and life counselor as it is staging and showing a property.

“It used to be a tell-and-sell attitude versus the listening and educating and guiding that we do today,” said Roberta Baldwin, an agent-owner of the Keller Williams NJ Metro Group in Montclair. In the height of the market, an agent would host an open house and offers would be in by the end of the weekend. Realtors and clients didn’t develop as close a relationship with each other. Personal finances were not discussed because it was assumed people would make a profit if they were selling and were flush if they were buying.

Now, that has all changed.

“Most of my time is spent fielding phone calls and also calling other people and making sure they’re okay — emotionally okay — and making sure their financial situation is holding,” Baldwin said. “It’s very, very different.”

Baldwin said her heart sinks when someone calls and says a spouse lost a job. “They literally ask you, ‘What should I do?,’ ” she said. The questions come so often, she now brings up the issue at staff meetings with her team and discusses how best to handle the situations.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 116 Comments

Irene hits Jersey residents a second time

Posted on September 19, 2011 by grim

From the Record:

Tax hikes, service cuts likely as Irene costs towns $61M

Hurricane or not, Irene is on track to becoming one of the most expensive natural disasters in North Jersey’s history, with preliminary estimates from the region’s municipal governments totaling in the tens of millions of dollars, public records show.

With damage yet to be tallied in many of the hardest-hit towns, Bergen County’s public agencies had reported more than $19.3 million in damaged public buildings, buckled roadways, garbage pickup and other government expenses by late last week, according to numbers compiled by The Record. And those costs will be at least partly passed onto residents and taxpayers in the form of higher property taxes, service cuts or loss of use to public facilities that are not immediately repaired, officials in several towns said.

The estimated damage amounted to nearly $42 million in Passaic County — where half of the costs were in Paterson and tallies were almost certain to rise because they had been calculated while many roadways were underwater, Passaic County officials said.

Those costs are in addition to the $199.8 million in damage to business and private properties reported so far in Bergen and Passaic counties. All costs will likely change as Federal Emergency Management Agency officials visit local governments to compile official tallies starting this week.

“This is a catastrophic loss for all the government agencies in the county, and the citizens as well,” said Sgt. Barry Leventhal of the Bergen County Office of Emergency Management. He added that state and federal officials would work with municipalities to minimize the impact to taxpayers and private homeowners.
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State and federal officials said they were doing everything they could to help local governments recover, but some officials said they were skeptical of receiving enough money to completely buffer taxpayers from the burden of paying for the storm.
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Local officials said the state’s committed contribution fell far below the help they received after Floyd in 1999.

That year, the state contributed $20 million in aid for residents and businesses, $20 million for counties and $10 million for programs to reduce the possibility of future floods.

Without that kind of help, officials in some of the hardest hit towns said they would have no choice but to prioritize repairs, consider sharp cutbacks on spending or turn to property owners to make up the difference.

“It’s going to mean higher taxes,” said Rochelle Park Mayor Joseph Scarpa, whose town has reported more than $800,000 in municipal damage from Irene, a figure that did not include debris removal.

“If we’re not getting the money from insurance or FEMA where else are we going to get the money from?” Scarpa said.

Posted in Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 125 Comments

“Agriculture is the new golf”

Posted on September 18, 2011 by grim

From the WSJ:

An Apple Tree Grows in Suburbia

Used to be, developers built high-end suburban communities around golf greens.

The hot amenity now? Salad greens.

In a movement propelled by environmental concern, nostalgia for a simpler life and a dollop of marketing savvy, developers are increasingly laying out their cul-de-sacs around organic farms, cattle ranches, vineyards and other agricultural ventures. They’re betting that buyers will pay a premium for views of heirloom tomatoes—and that the farms can provide a steady stream of revenue, while cutting the cost of landscaping upkeep.

Forget multimillion-dollar recreation centers—”our amenities are watching the cows graze and the leaves change,” says Joe Barnes, development principal for Bundoran Farm, a 2,300-acre development set amid apple orchards and cattle pastures outside Charlottesville, Va.

To be sure, the shaky economy has taken a toll on some of these developments, including Bundoran Farms, where the developers are moving ahead with new financial backers after a co-owner of the acreage went into foreclosure. Still, Bundoran’s developers say they have sold 19 lots, which run from about $250,000 to more than $1 million, in the past 10 months. And new communities centered on agricultural development are in various stages of planning and construction in cities from coast to coast, including South Burlington, Vt., Hayes, Va., Boise, Idaho, and Stockton, Calif.

“Agriculture is the new golf,” says Ed McMahon, a senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute, a nonprofit group focused on land-use planning.
…
There are three basic models for incorporating agriculture into suburbia. The most straightforward is to set aside land for a farm, orchard or vineyard within the community. Such ventures may be run by an independent contractor who leases the land, or by salaried farmers who work for the developer. A second model creates community gardens—tilled, irrigated and ready for planting—throughout the development. Residents can claim a plot and get their hands dirty. Or new-home buyers might be might be offered a choice of irrigation systems and planter boxes that would allow them to turn their own yards into mini-farms. A final model involves creating edible landscaping throughout common spaces—fruit and nut trees, berry bushes, cabbage and lettuce—and allowing residents to pick whatever they can use. Many of the new developments incorporate more than one of these visions.

The trend has its roots in the growing distaste for prototypical suburban sprawl: mile after mile of look-alike homes broken up by the occasional park. The sustainability movement, with its emphasis on conservation, preservation and local food production, has helped, too. Then there’s the fact that the U.S. already has thousands of golf-course communities, so developers looking to set their subdivisions apart need a new marketing hook.

“We’re not trying to be suburbia,” says Harold Smethills, a principal of Sterling Ranch, a planned development southwest of Denver that will feature a 4-H livestock ranch and hundreds of acres of community gardens.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Development | 18 Comments

The New America

Posted on September 16, 2011 by grim

From CNN:

The jobless in New Jersey find refuge in Tent City

Cars and trucks cruise along Cedar Bridge Avenue, drivers listening to radio anchors reporting the headline that a record 46 million Americans are living in poverty, while 50 feet from the bustling boulevard, hidden by the woods that border the road, lies a shocking example of that shameful statistic.

Behind the trees, six dozen homeless Americans have set up camp, in tents, teepees and huts, residents of what they call Tent City. It’s a place where those out of work and out of luck can drop out of society while living as cheaply as possible.

“It’s a community here,” said the Rev. Steven Brigham, who founded Tent City in 2006 as part of his Lakewood Outreach Ministry Church. “They have a sense of belonging.”

In the past year Brigham has seen Tent City’s population nearly double as the jobs recession drags on.

Angelo Villanueva jabs at a homemade punching bag he hung from a tree — a plastic bag filled with dirt wrapped with tape. It’s a “stress reliever,” said Villanueva. He’s a skilled mason who worked construction jobs for nearly two decades, then fell victim to a sucker punch from the housing collapse. Villanueva, also an artist who has been drawing sketches of Tent City, never dreamed that he’d be among the nation’s homeless.

“You think of a homeless person, you think of a wino. But it can happen to anyone at any time,” said Villanueva. “I had the wrong conception of a homeless person — I figure he’s a bum, a deadbeat.”
…
Brigham receives donations from individuals, churches and synagogues that he says allow him to operate Tent City for about $1,000-a-month.

Loaves of bread are piled on a communal table, next to plastic garbage bags filled with clothing. Cans of food sit neatly in a wooden pantry. Residents are free to take what they need.

There are makeshift solutions to conveniences that most people take for granted. A power generator is connected to a pump that delivers groundwater to a both a shower and washing machine. Nearby sits a hot water heater that works off a propane tank.

“They’ve got all their needs met here,” said Brigham.
…
Tent City residents are hopeful they’ll be able to remain in their community, even through the winter. That’s what Marilyn and Michael Berenzweig did last year. Marilyn, a textile designer who worked in New York just two years ago, and her husband Michael, a former public radio producer, have been living here for 16 months, with fading hope of finding employment.

“It’s very hard for a company to decide to use a 61-year-old trainee. I’m too young for Social Security. It’s going to be a rocky flight. It’s been a rocky flight,” said Marilyn Berenzweig.

Posted in Economics, Employment | 118 Comments

Fort Monmouth Closes

Posted on September 15, 2011 by grim

From the Record:

New Jersey’s Fort Monmouth closing after 94 years

Anyone who has ever listened to FM radio, gotten a speeding ticket or wondered whether there is life on other planets has been affected by New Jersey’s Fort Monmouth.

The work done at the sprawling base near the Jersey shore led to communications advances including the development of FM radio, radar, and the ability to bounce signals off the moon to prove the feasibility of extraterrestrial radio communication. It launched the first radio-equipped weather balloon, and hosted hundreds of message-bearing courier pigeons that served in the two world wars.
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But the fort’s time is up. On Thursday, after 94 years of helping warriors communicate with each other while keeping tabs on the enemy, Fort Monmouth is closing, the victim of congressional budget cutting. Most of its thousands of jobs have been transferred to the Aberdeen Proving Grounds in Maryland.

“It’s sad. It’s depressing,” said Tom Hipper of Little Silver, a division chief who rode his motorcycle out the fort’s main gate Wednesday for the next-to-last time. “I just think it was all politics.
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The base’s fate was sealed in 2005 when the Base Realignment and Closure Commission included Fort Monmouth in a list of military facilities it would close to save money. The commission estimated it would cost $782 million to move the fort’s mission to Maryland, but the cost rose to nearly $2 billion by 2008, leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of many locals who depend on the base for jobs.
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Of the 5,570 civilian and military jobs at the fort, 5,400 were to be transferred to Maryland. There were 3,144 civilian employees who took the Army up on its offer to move, Kearney said.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 164 Comments

Obsessed with fixing the unfixable

Posted on September 14, 2011 by grim

There is an easy fix for negative equity. All we need to do is pick who loses. Do we (taxpayers) want to lose? Should the homeowner lose? Should the banks lose? Should investors lose? Should we all lose?

From HousingWire:

More than 22% of mortgages still underwater

Nearly 11 million properties, roughly 22.5% of all U.S. homes, were worth less than the underlying mortgage in the second quarter, according to CoreLogic.

The percentage of properties in negative equity declined slightly from 22.7% the previous quarter and down from 24% one year ago. Another 2.4 million borrowers held less than 5% equity in their home, what analysts call near-negative equity. CoreLogic also showed nearly three-quarters of all underwater borrowers are paying above-market interest on their home loans.

“High negative equity is holding back refinancing and sales activity and is a major impediment to the housing market recovery,” said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic chief economist.

More borrowers could be in danger of falling underwater. JPMorgan Chase analysts expect home prices to drop another 5% by the beginning of 2012, pushing the amount of underwater borrowers to 15 million, according to a research note released earlier in the month. If prices drop more, possibly 10% further, the number of borrowers in negative equity would approach 20 million.

The Obama administration continues working on a proposal to boost refinancings, which many include eliminating some negative equity restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. Some analysts believe such a program would have only modest impact, but CoreLogic showed nearly 28 million outstanding mortgages hold above-market rates and, in theory, should be able to refinance.
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“The hardest hit markets have improved over the last year, primarily as a result of foreclosures. But nationally, the level of mortgage debt remains high relative to home prices,” CoreLogic said.

Posted in Employment, Foreclosures, National Real Estate | 152 Comments

Support for O’s housing bailout already waining

Posted on September 13, 2011 by grim

From CNBC:

‘Friction’ in Obama’s Refi Proposal

The response to President Obama’s recent proposal to refinance more borrowers into lower interest rate mortgages was at best underwhelming and at worst scathing. The plan would expand the government’s so-far disappointing, Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), which helps current but underwater borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans to refinance.

“Mr. President, the housing market is the foundation of the U.S. economy. It is cracked and chipping away,” writes Florida real estate consultant Jack McCabe in an editorial in the Herald-Tribune.

“The walls are beginning to cave. Your answer, anecdotally, seems to be put a new roof on it.”
…
Unfortunately the plan, which could allow borrowers with more than 25 percent in negative equity to refinance, is being deemed too costly as well. While the Congressional Budget Office estimated it would cost investors in the original mortgages between $13 and $15 billion (while potentially saving 111,000 borrowers from defaulting), analysts at JP Morgan Chase say it would cost more:

If such a policy were successful on a large scale, it would clearly devalue higher coupons, and would threaten lower coupons with incremental gross supply. A more modest HARP overhaul, while less disruptive, still forces investors to require more conservative valuations until details emerge.

All these arguments, however, may be moot, as the overseer of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which would have to approve the refinance effort, is sounding wildly cautious. In a statement following the President’s speech, Director Ed DeMarco states, “If there are frictions associated with the origination of HARP loans that can be eased while still achieving the program’s intent of assisting borrowers and reducing credit risk for the Enterprises, we will seek to do so.”
…
Then there are issues of loan origination dates, put-backs on loans that default and borrower qualifications. Frictions. Beyond the friction, however, is the simple fact that a refinance program, while potentially an economic stimulus, is not a housing stimulus and shouldn’t be characterized as such. The HARP program is and always was for current borrowers and does nothing to address the millions of non-current borrowers, bank-owned foreclosed homes and falling home prices.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, Politics | 129 Comments

Screwed over a second time

Posted on September 12, 2011 by grim

From the NY Post:

$1T in sour notes

It’s the flip side of foreclosure fraud: Not only is the city fireman in danger of losing his home, he also might wind up with smaller retirement checks because his pension invested in home-mortgage-backed bonds that were bundled and sold off by banks during the real-estate bubble.

Pension funds, insurance companies, university endowments, charities, community banks and other investors are believed to be out hundreds of billions of dollars because of the mess big banks made of the housing market.

Although lawsuits against banks are mounting, the disputes over the almost $1 trillion in mortgage securities may take years to resolve — and most investors are likely to wind up with only cents on the dollar.

“It comes out of our pockets,” says Peter Henning, a Wayne State University law professor and securities-law expert. “No one reached into your wallet and took out cash, but it impacts all of us. If you’re a mutual-fund holder with a bond fund, you’ve probably taken a hit. Insurance companies have losses, and that cost has to get passed on.”

Investors are getting aggressive about getting money back, but they recognize that only a small amount might get recovered, says Steve Toll, a partner at law firm Cohen Milstein, lead counsel in eight class-action lawsuits over mortgage-backed securities.

“We’re trying to get as much as we can for investors, but there’s never enough money to go around,” he says.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, Risky Lending | 62 Comments