Pending home sales at 9 year low, Northeast leads decline

Posted on August 3, 2010 by grim

From CNBC:

Pending Home Sales Sink 2.6 Percent in June

From the AP:

Pending home sales sink 2.6 percent in June

he number of buyers who signed contracts to purchase homes dropped in June, as the weak economy and tight lending standards kept consumers away from the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that its seasonally adjusted index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes dipped 2.6 percent to a reading of 75.7.

That was the lowest on records dating back to 2001 and down nearly 19 percent from the same month a year earlier. The index has fallen more than 40 percent from its peak in April 2005. May’s reading was revised slightly downward to 77.7.

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Decrease 2.6%

The number of contracts to purchase previously owned houses unexpectedly fell in June, indicating demand kept unraveling after the expiration of a homebuyer tax credit.
…
“We’re still seeing the aftereffects of the homebuyer tax credit expiration,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, who forecast a decline in June pending home sales. “The comeback from the housing downturn is likely to be sluggish.”
…
Three of the four regions showed a decline in June, today’s report showed, led by a 12 percent drop in the Northeast. Pending sales fell 9.5 percent in the Midwest and 0.2 percent in the West. They rose 3.7 percent in the South.

Compared with June 2009, nationwide pending sales dropped 20 percent.

From the AFP:

Pending US home sales down to nine-year low

The number of contracts signed to purchase existing homes in the United States unexpectedly fell in June to its lowest level in nine years, private data showed Tuesday.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 158 Comments

NJ’s “new normal” an unwelcome reality

Posted on August 3, 2010 by grim

From Bloomberg:

NJ Assembly panel to discuss possible shortfall

Just weeks after New Jersey’s current budget went into effect, a dispute is simmering over projections of a possible $10.5 billion shortfall when officials start compiling next year’s spending plan.

The Assembly Budget Committee plans to meet this week to get some answers on the state’s long-term outlook.

The budget brouhaha began in late July, when the Office of Legislative Services, the legislature’s research arm, issued a report that said the state could be facing a $10.5 billion deficit for the fiscal year that begins July 1, 2011.
…
“The ($10.5 billion) number is completely fake and doesn’t understand the new reality, which is I’m not going to approve spending that goes over” the current budget, Christie said.

Legislative Services, though, noted that many big-ticket items that contributed to the current year’s budget deficit still will be in place next year. Those include $3.5 billion for pensions, $2.3 billion to fully fund schools and $2.1 billion for rebates.
…
“This is obviously a big concern that needs to be addressed,” said Greenwald, D-Voorhees.

To plug this year’s deficit, Christie slashed aid to schools and municipalities, suspended property tax rebates and skipped a $3 billion payment to state employee pension funds.

Greenwald, though, said the state cannot continue to rely on such fiscal maneuvering.

“Real change and plans to stimulate our economy, create jobs and put people back to work are what’s needed,” he said. “We cannot continue to do the same old things.”
…
“There are systemic issues with budgeting that (the legislature has) faced year in and year out, but people kept passing legislation despite knowing that we didn’t have the money for it at the time and/or down the road,” said Assemblyman Joe Malone, the chamber’s GOP lawmaker on the budget. “We kept living high on the hog, but the hog is gone now.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 97 Comments

Greenspan: Double dip “possible, if home prices go down.”

Posted on August 2, 2010 by grim

From the LA Times:

Alan Greenspan: A drop in home prices could lead to second recession

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said over the weekend that a decline in home prices could derail an already slowing economic recovery and send the U.S. into a double-dip recession.

Greenspan’s comments, made on Sunday’s edition of NBC’s “Meet The Press,” follow his successor Ben Bernanke’s remarks last week before Congress that the economy remains “unusually uncertain,” and that the Fed was readying itself to take new measures if the economy deteriorated further.

“I think we’re in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery,” Greenspan said on Sunday’s program. “But a pause in the modest recovery feels like quasi recession.”

Economists are increasingly concerned about a renewed decline, with the latest evidence of an economy losing steam coming Friday as the Commerce Department reported lower-than-expected economic growth. Meantime, Greenspan said on Sunday’s program, the recovery has not been distributed equitably, with principally the very wealthy, large corporations and major banks benefiting.
…
Asked by program host David Gregory if the U.S. could enter a second recession if the housing crisis deepens, Greenspan answered: “It is possible, if home prices go down.”

“Home prices, as best we can judge, have really flattened out in the last year,” Greenspan said. “And while it is true that most economists expect a small dip from here, largely as a consequence of the ending of the tax credit, the data don’t show that at this particular stage. If home prices stay stable, then I think we will skirt the worst of the housing problem.”

Threatening that stability is a growing shadow inventory of homeowners entering default, Greenspan said, which could lead to more foreclosures hitting the real estate market.

Unemployment is also likely to stay elevated this year, Greenspan said. The former Fed chief also said he disagreed with the notion that the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended upon their expiration at the end of the year.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 119 Comments

Tunnel Arbitrage!

Posted on July 30, 2010 by grim

I believe we talked about this effect when the ARC project was announced. While I agree that some towns stand to gain tremendously from this (Bergen County especially), this effectively diminishes the “Midtown direct” effect for the towns that currently benefit from it. Some towns will lose out.

Main/Bergen as well as Pascack Valley lines will get one-seat rides in, as well as the Raritan Valley line. Towns that lose exclusivity of the one-seat ride? Glen Ridge, Montclair, Millburn/Short Hills, Summit, Chatham, Madison, etc. The loss of exclusivity will result in lowering demand in those areas, as a host of other viable options will become available. Dare I say some desirable towns become even more desirable, for example, Ridgewood or Westfield.

Buyers and sellers alike should consider this information before the cars start rolling.

The full study can be found here:

The ARC Effect

From the NY Observer:

How a $9 B. Tunnel Could Make Jersey Homeowners Richer

Much was made in the 1990s about the “Midtown Direct” effect in New Jersey—the apparent causation of major increases in home values and housing demand in certain New Jersey suburbs, Maplewood included, by the creation of new commuter train lines with one-seat rides to midtown Manhattan. Faster, more convenient commutes equates to more well-paid Manhattan workers wanting to live in New Jersey, so the thinking goes.

Now the Regional Plan Association is out with a study that looks at the rise in home values that followed the creation of the Midtown Direct line in the `90s, along with other improvements that opened up a more convenient commute, and makes predictions about what a new Hudson River rail tunnel, called Access to the Region’s Core (or ARC), might do for commuters in future years.

The result, RPA suggests: Property values for homes within two miles of a station could rise by a total of $18 billion. (It’s probably good to note here that RPA, which has long advocated regional transit and another rail tunnel, gets a significant amount of its funding from the two agencies sponsoring the tunnel: the Port Authority and New Jersey Transit.)

From the Star Ledger:

Railroad tunnel connecting N.J., N.Y. will increase property values, study says

The planned trans-Hudson commuter rail tunnel will boost home values by thousands of dollars and help hold down property tax rates in areas where commuting times will be cut, according to a report released today by a regional planning group.
…
The numbers cited in the report are based on an analysis of 45,000 home sales within two miles of commuter rail stations before and after three prior rail enhancements: Midtown Direct Service on the Morris & Essex Line; the Montclair Connection for the Montclair-Boonton Line; and Secaucus Junction, which serves the Pascack Valley and Main/Bergen/Port Jervis Lines.

The value of homes within a half mile, or walking distance, of a station would increase by $29,000, while homes within two miles would appreciate by $19,000, the report concluded.
…
The planning association also said the project would boost total property values by $18 billion, helping to hold down property tax rates. William Dressel, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities, said the figure was, “not a surprise at all,” and would help cities and towns meet the new 2-percent cap on property tax increases.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 251 Comments

New Jersey housing demand “sluggish and lacking momentum”

Posted on July 28, 2010 by grim

From the Federal Reserve:

Beige Book – Second District–New York

Construction and Real Estate

Housing markets have softened somewhat, on balance, since the last report, with much of the weakening attributed to the expiration of the home-buyer tax credit. An authority on New Jersey’s housing industry characterizes housing demand as sluggish and lacking momentum. Activity has tapered off, while transaction prices for both new and existing homes appear to be drifting down. Northern New Jersey’s rental market has also slackened, with a growing number of available units on the market and landlords offering more incentives and concessions; a number of buildings initially intended as condos have converted to rentals. Similarly, Buffalo-area Realtors report that home sales activity weakened substantially in May and June, reportedly due largely to the expiration of the extended homebuyers’ tax credit, though selling prices continued to run ahead of comparable 2009 levels.

In New York City, conditions were more mixed, with co-op and condo sales activity picking up in the second quarter but prices generally holding steady. The number of apartment sales rose by a bit more than the seasonal norm in the first quarter. The median sales price of an apartment was down 7 percent from a year ago in Queens but up 5 percent in Brooklyn. In Manhattan, the median price rose roughly 8 percent from a year earlier, but the price per square foot was virtually unchanged. Manhattan’s rental market, though still well below its peak of a few years ago, appears to be on the rebound: leasing activity picked up noticeably, rents have stabilized, landlords are giving less generous concessions, and the inventory of available rentals has declined.

From Jeff Otteau’s Monthly Newsletter (no link):

Purchase contracts to buy a home in New Jersey declined for the 2nd consecutive month, compared to one year ago, providing a grim outlook for what’s ahead in the housing market. In June, purchase contracts declined by 27% which followed a 23% decline in May for the worst performance of the past 6 years.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 149 Comments

“There’s less than a million acres left”

Posted on July 28, 2010 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Rowan, Rutgers study says N.J. is running out of open space, renews urban sprawl debate

For the first time, New Jersey’s landscape is covered more by housing and shopping malls rather than forests, the real consequence of the “two most sprawling decades” ever, a report being released today concludes.

The study, a collaboration between Rowan and Rutgers universities, analyzed land use data between 1986 and 2007 and estimates the state could run out of open space around 2050 if the pace of development that took place in the sprawl years continued.

“There’s less than a million acres left,” said John Hasse, a professor at Rowan University and a co-author of the report. “We have our last 20 percent.

But at the same time, some real estate observers predict the current recession and underlying demographic trends will radically alter development in New Jersey away from the suburbs, slowing down McMansion-style lots in the future.

Either way, the report has renewed the volatile sprawl debates in the state, already the most densely populated in the country. Builders, environmentalists and planners routinely square off as they confront the fewer acres left open for development.
…
“We’re not running out of land in New Jersey,” said David Fisher of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., one of the largest builders in the state. “If you look at the regulations and lands that are made off-limits, then, yes, land is less available than just a decade or two ago.”
…
“This sprawl model, we no longer have a foundation for it,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation, a real estate analysis group, in East Brunswick. “Households will need to be more efficient in their spending, which means smaller houses with shorter commute times.”
…
“When the economy comes back on, I think there are these trends of people still wanting large-lot development,” he said. “I don’t think we’ve seen the last of sprawl in the state.”

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 114 Comments

May Case Shiller Day!

Posted on July 27, 2010 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices Probably Rose in Year Ended May as U.S. Tax Credit Aided Sales

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in May from a year earlier as a government tax credit temporarily underpinned sales, economists forecast a report to show today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 3.9 percent from May 2009, according to the median of 26 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Another report may show consumer confidence dropped in July to a five-month low.

A retreat in demand since the April 30 contract-signing deadline to be eligible for an incentive worth up to $8,000 signals home prices will slacken in coming months. Mounting foreclosures may add to the pressure on property values, pointing to decreases in home equity that will hurt consumer spending and economic growth.

“The federal homebuyers tax credit has been an important stimulus to demand and it’s unclear whether prices will remain stable once that stimulus is gone,” said Zach Pandl, an economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. “When you look at fundamentals in the housing market they still look pretty poor. You have limited demand and a lot of supply.”

The home-price figures are due at 9 a.m. New York time. Estimates ranged from increases of 2.9 percent to 5.1 percent, after a 3.8 percent gain in the 12 months to April.

From the AP:

Don’t hold your breath for a bounce in home prices

Thought the housing crisis was over? Not quite.

Despite four years of falling prices and recent signs that they were finally bottoming out, homes are expected to lose still more value in many metro areas over the next year.

Parts of the country already pummeled by the housing crisis, like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, will be hit hardest. But even some places that have rebounded or held up relatively well — including New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. — will suffer, too.

That’s the conclusion of economists who have been reducing their estimates for home prices as the outlook for the economic recovery has darkened. The number of homes for sale or headed for foreclosure is so high that they think prices will be even lower by next July.
…
The average home price in the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index of 20 big U.S. cities is forecast to drop nearly 2 percent this year from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of more than 100 economists polled this month by MacroMarkets LLC.
…
Moody’s predicts that other areas — New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Tampa, Fla.; and Washington D.C. — will see declines of 2 to 8 percent by next July.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 110 Comments

Homebuilders “did not expect it to get as bad as it has.”

Posted on July 26, 2010 by grim

From the FT:

Housebuilders hit by US tax credit hangover

The last day of April and the end of the first-time buyer tax holiday was expected to be a dark day for US housebuilders. Yet few anticipated just how sharply activity levels would fall once government support for the industry was removed.

As housebuilders prepare to release second-quarter earnings over the next fortnight, industry observers are warning that the fallout from the tax credit hang­over could force the sector into another round of writedowns.

“The market is saying that the housebuilding model is broken right now,” says Josh Levin, an analyst at Citigroup.

“Many housebuilders and investors expected things to be bad after the tax credit expired, but they did not expect it to get as bad as it has.”

Since the expiration of the tax credit, which offered would-be homeowners an $8,000 cash boost, shares in the leading housebuilders have dropped 27 per cent – one of the sharpest falls since the financial crisis.
…
Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm, says the stark change in activity levels has caused housebuilders to reassess the extent to which the tax credit helped drive sales.

“[Housebuilders] were prepared for a short-lived 10 to 15 per cent correction after the tax credit expired. What they got has been a 35 per cent correction, which has already lasted for two months,” Ms Zelman explains.
…
Paul Dales at Capital Economics is also pessimistic and has warned that the expiry of the tax credit had “triggered a double-dip in activity” in the homebuying market.
…
The increasing number of distressed properties for sale, many of which are sold for less than the cost of construction, is also a concern for the industry.

About 1.65m homes received foreclosure filings during the first six months of 2010, according to Realtytrac, the data company. Analysts estimate 7m foreclosed homes could still come up for sale.
…
In spite of the positive start to the year, the housebuilders appear to be feeling the strain of lacklustre buyer interest and the over-supplied property market.

The most recent reading of the National Association of Homebuilders’ index of builder sentiment showed a fall from 16 to 14 in July – the lowest it has been since April 2009.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 98 Comments

“Absent a stimulus to the housing market, home prices will decline further”

Posted on July 25, 2010 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Gov. Christie vetoes $100M homebuyers tax credit bill

Gov. Chris Christie today [Friday] vetoed a bill that would give tax credits of up to $15,000 to homebuyers, saying the state could not afford to forego $100 million in tax revenue over the program’s proposed three-year lifespan.

The bill, which passed with overwhelming bipartisan support late in the spring, would have provided three-quarters of the funding to buyers of newly built homes.

Christie has said that while he would support some economic development programs in other times, the state does not have the luxury of paying for them now.
…
“The homebuyer’s tax credit program would have reinvigorated the building industry and provided a much-needed boost to the state’s slumping economy,” Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Bergen) said in a statement. “This action the governor took today will only exacerbate our economic problems. It is beyond disappointing.”

But Christie argued in his veto the money would have been used by people already committed to buying homes and would “briefly and artificially inflate home values.”
…
Jeffrey Otteau, an East Brunswick-based appraiser who studies the state’s housing market, said the market took a big hit when the federal tax credit expired.

“Absent a stimulus to the housing market, home prices will decline further, which will put additional downward pressure home prices,” he said.

Without the stimulus, homes values will dip even further, in the second half of the year, which could push more people into foreclosure, Otteau said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

“New Jersey has yet to establish a sustained recovery.”

Posted on July 23, 2010 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Economists predict N.J. may be among last to recover from recession

If you think the local economy isn’t getting any better, you’re right.

New Jersey has yet to see any strong signs of economic recovery, even as the rest of the region has started to pull out of the recession, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said today.

While neighboring New York has rebounded strongly since late last year, New Jersey appears to have hit bottom and plateaued, according to the bank’s economic indicators.

Bank economists said a slow jobs recovery and a shrinking manufacturing sector mean the Garden State, which entered the recession six months before the rest of the nation in June 2007, could also be one of the last to emerge. While New York City officially exited the recession last November, economists said it remains to be seen when New Jersey’s economy will pull out of its tailspin.

“Economic conditions in New Jersey remain essentially flat,” William Dudley, the Fed’s president and CEO, said during a quarterly press briefing on New York, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. “Although activity there is no longer declining, New Jersey has yet to establish a sustained recovery.”
…
Since the start of the decade, manufacturing employment in New Jersey has fallen by 23 percent and output by 10 percent, according to the bank. In contrast, New York saw a similar employment decline but managed to boost output by nearly 15 percent, a sign of increased efficiency.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 116 Comments

Las Vegas East? When is the razing scheduled for, Governor?

Posted on July 22, 2010 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Gov. Christie pledges to turn Atlantic City casino district into ‘Las Vegas East’

With more flair than a traveling road act, Gov. Chris Christie stood on the 50-yard line of the New Meadowlands Stadium today and declared the state government’s long romance with horse racing dead.

“I don’t have the money to subsidize failure,” he said, summarizing the findings of a special commission which has concluded the state’s long financial support of horse racing has had its day. It’s a river of red ink and can’t be saved.

A helicopter ride later, he stood on the boardwalk in Atlantic City and pledged to take over the faltering casino district and turn the city into “Las Vegas East.” Flanked by the mayor and city council he side-stepped the part of the commission findings that called Atlantic City corrupt and portrayed it as incredibly inept. He said the changes his commission proposes are needed by this time next summer.

“Delay will lead to demise,” the governor said.

The day had the feel of a major public relations blitz, aimed at stoking support for one of the boldest moves to come out of the statehouse in years. In some parts of the political landscape it seemed to be working.

Posted in New Development, Politics, Shore Real Estate | 121 Comments

Double dip predictions going mainstream

Posted on July 21, 2010 by grim

From the WSJ:

Housing Market Stumbles

The housing market, whose collapse pulled the economy into recession in late 2007, is stalling again.

In major markets across the country, home sales are deteriorating, inventories of unsold homes are piling up and builders are scaling back construction plans. The expiration of a federal home-buyers tax credit at the end of April is weighing on the market.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Census Bureau said single-family housing starts in June fell by 0.7%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 454,000. The U.S. started 1.47 million homes in 2006, before the housing bubble popped.

Future construction looks even weaker. Permits for single-family starts fell 3% in June, following big declines in both May and April. “We’re hovering at post-World War II lows,” said Ivy Zelman, president of Zelman & Associates, a research firm.

Economists aren’t singling out one reason for the stalling housing market. A variety of factors have led to flagging confidence, they say, including sluggish labor markets, global economic turmoil and falling stock prices.

While the housing downturn dragged the economy into a recession nearly three years ago, now it is the economy that is pulling down housing, says economist Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight. Without sustained job growth, the housing market likely won’t improve. That in turn will ricochet across manufacturing, retail and other trades heavily dependent on home building and consumer spending.
…
Even falling interest rates aren’t enough to whet consumer appetites for housing. Last week, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was quoted at 4.57%, according to Freddie Mac, the lowest since its survey began in 1971. But demand for home-purchase mortgages sits near 14-year lows, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, down 44% over the past two months.
…
Analysts long expected the withdrawal of a federal tax credit, which had juiced sales, to lead to a slower-than-usual summer.

“It’s the magnitude that’s been the issue,” says Douglas Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The drop-off in activity has surpassed expectations.”

Reports should show that completed transactions of home sales held up through June. But newly signed contracts in May and June have plunged.
…
Another reason inventory is rising: “Unrealistic sellers have flooded the market” after reports of bidding wars and home-price increases earlier in the year, says Steven Thomas, president of Altera Real Estate, a brokerage in Orange County. The amount of time that homes there have sat on the market there has swelled to 3.78 months, up from 2.35 months in April.

“The sellers think the market’s coming back. They’ve tacked on an extra 5 to 10 to 15%. The buyers aren’t going for it,” says Jim Klinge, a real-estate agent in Carlsbad, Calif. Over the next six months, “it’s going to feel like a double-dip because sellers are going to have to lower their prices.”

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 108 Comments

Looking down the barrel

Posted on July 20, 2010 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. faces $10.5B budget deficit heading into next year

New Jersey faces a $10.5 billion budget deficit heading into next year — nearly the same size as the gap that opened up before this year’s spending plan passed, according to an analysis by a nonpartisan legislative office.

The internal report, obtained by The Star-Ledger, means next year’s budget challenges could be just as difficult as this year, when Gov. Chris Christie slashed funding for schools, municipalities and property tax rebates.

The Office of Legislative Services calculated a $10.5 billion shortfall by counting all mandatory increases in state funding and assuming all programs now in the budget would be included next year.

But David Rosen, OLS’ chief budget official, wrote the numbers “will no doubt shift” between now and when the next budget is crafted.
…
Christie closed the gap in the $29.4 billion budget that took effect July 1 largely by avoiding costs such as funding for schools and rebates, rather than making major policy changes. He put off a $3.1 billion pension payment; next year, that bill is expected to increase to $3.5 billion, the OLS report says.

The analysis said many of the big items that made up this year’s deficit would return for the next budget, noting that schools will be due $2.3 billion more, and the state will owe $2.1 billion in tax rebates.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 182 Comments

Sound Familiar?

Posted on July 19, 2010 by grim

From the Record:

Apartment tower took long, troubled road to completion

The upscale high-rise in Hackensack where a parking garage collapsed Friday boasts fireplaces, a swimming pool, vaulted ceilings and views of Manhattan, amid one of Bergen County’s most expensive apartment rows.

But the path to its perch as a 203-unit edifice with rents surpassing $2,000 a month was far from a smooth one. Construction of its 18 stories atop a hill overlooking the expanse of North Jersey followed a boom-bust-boom saga that featured several owners and developers, a fight over a mountain of shale and years as a dangerous barbed-wire-encased eyesore that angered neighbors, kicked up dust storms and attracted swarms of bugs back in the 1990s.

The building was planned in the mid-1980s as part of a three-tower, 459-unit project on 1.6 acres during a frenetic period of upscale development on and near Prospect Avenue. Construction of the first tower was halted in 1989 because the developer could not sell the units as the real estate market went sour. The developer filed for bankruptcy the next year, according to city records, and plans for the two other towers also stalled.

In 1992, the project was taken over by the financing lender, which promptly failed and was taken over by federal investigators. The property was turned over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which sold it in 1994 to new developers. The first tower was completed in 1995, according to court records. But the project remained dormant for several more years, with city residents complaining about its sagging fence, tarpaulin-covered foundation and mosquito swarms. A 60,000-square-foot mountain of shale created during excavation generated dusty squalls or piles of mud, depending on the weather, prompting the city to sue to force its removal.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 111 Comments

New Jersey Home Price Tracker – June 2010

Posted on July 16, 2010 by grim

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* April S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)
* Q1 FHFA Home Price Index (HPI, Purchase Only)
* Q1 NJAR Home Price Index (Statewide Median)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)

FHFA (Formerly known as the OFHEO) Home Price Index

HPI (Includes Refis) – Peaked in Q1 2007 and is down 13.5% from peak

Purchase Only – Peaked in Q2 2006 and is down 12.9% from peak

S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $279,579) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 26.9% from peak

Mid Tier ($279,579 – $428,491) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 23.2% from peak

High Tier (Over $428,491) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 17.0% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 21.7% from peak

Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 13.6% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

Apr 2009 -12.35%
May 2009 -11.87%
Jun 2009 -11.49%
Jul 2009 -10.13%
Aug 2009 -9.42%
Sep 2009 -8.73%
Oct 2009 -8.04%
Nov 2009 -7.42%
Dec 2009 -6.31%
Jan 2009 -5.26%
Feb 2009 -4.07%
Mar 2009 -2.43%
Apr 2010 -1.02%

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 236 Comments