Realtors: Area Q4 Home Prices/Sales Plummet

Posted on February 12, 2009 by grim

From the National Association of Realtors:

Median Sales Price of Existing Single-Family Homes for Metropolitan Areas – Q4 2008

Metropolitan Area Single Family Median Home Price

Atlantic City, NJ
2007 Q4 – $278,800
2008 Q4 – $229,100 (Down 17.8% Year over Year)

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $457,400
2008 Q4 – $390,400 (Down 14.6% Year over Year)

New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ
2007 Q4 – $519,200
2008 Q4 – $458,600 (Down 11.7% Year over Year)

NY: Edison, NJ
2007 Q4 – $379,300
2008 Q4 – $343,600 (Down 9.4% Year over Year)

NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY
2007 Q4 – $461,700
2008 Q4 – $381,300 (Down 17.4% Year over Year)

NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $435,800
2008 Q4 – $373,600 (Down 14.3% Year over Year)

From the National Association of Realtors:

Median Sales Price of Existing Condos/Coops/Apts for Metropolitan Areas – Q4 2008

Metropolitan Area Existing Condo/Coop/Apt Median Home Price

New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ
2007 Q4 – $310,900
2008 Q4 – $292,600 (Down 5.9% Year over Year)

NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA
2007 Q4 – $315,100
2008 Q4 – $279,300 (Down 11.4% Year over Year)

NY: Edison, NJ
2007 Q4 – $274,300
2008 Q4 – $262,800 (Down 4.2% Year over Year)

NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY
2007 Q4 – $249,200
2008 Q4 – $231,800 (Down 7.0% Year over Year)

From the National Association of Realtors:

Total Sales: Single-Family, Condos and Co-ops

New Jersey Total Sales – Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
2005 – 154,900
2006 – 137,400
2007 Q4 – 119,400
2008 Q4 – 101,100 (Down 15.3% Year over Year)

From CNN/Money:

Home prices in record plunge
National Association of Realtors reports that home prices dropped a record 12.4% in 2008 – the biggest fall in 30 years.

Home prices fell 12.4% during 2008, the largest yearly decline since the National Association of Realtors began keeping comprehensive records in 1979.

The median price for a U.S. home sold during the fourth quarter of 2008 fell to $180,100, down from $205,700 during the last quarter of 2007.
…
The vast majority of metropolitan areas, 134 out of 153, recorded price declines compared with the last quarter of 2007.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices Tumble in 88% of U.S. Cities on Foreclosures

Home prices fell in almost nine out of every 10 U.S. cities in the fourth quarter as foreclosure sales drove down prices.

The median price of a U.S. home declined 12 percent from a year earlier and sales of properties with mortgages in default accounted for 45 percent of all transactions, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said today. Prices fell in 134 U.S. metropolitan areas, rose in 18 and were unchanged in one, the biggest share of declines in data going back to 1979.

The worst U.S. housing slump since the Great Depression is deepening as foreclosures drain value from neighboring homes and the economic recession worsens. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits rose to a record 4.81 million in the last week of January as companies such as Caterpillar Inc. and Home Depot Inc. slashed jobs. The U.S. lost 2.6 million jobs last year in the biggest workforce reduction since 1945.

U.S. foreclosure filings exceeded 250,000 for the 10th straight month in January as falling prices trapped owners in homes worth less than the mortgage, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report today.

From the AP:

Median home prices fell nationwide in 4Q

Home prices fell in nearly nine out of every 10 U.S. cities in the fourth quarter of last year as low-cost foreclosures flooded the market and the housing market’s decline spread nationwide.

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that median sales prices of existing homes declined in 134 out of 153 metropolitan areas compared with the same period in 2007. Sales fell in all but six states.

Nationwide, the median sales price was $180,100, down 12 percent from a year ago. But price declines of 30 percent or more were found in much of California, plus parts of Michigan, Florida, Arizona and Nevada. The biggest drop, of more than 50 percent, was in Fort Myers, Fla.
…
A nasty brew of strict lending standards, falling home values, soaring foreclosures and a severe recession is filtering through the housing market.

Nationwide, more than 274,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in January, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listing service. That was down 10 percent from December, but still up 18 percent from the same month a year ago. The numbers would have been higher if not for efforts to stall the foreclosure process.

More than 2 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, and that number could soar as high as 10 million in the coming years depending on the severity of the recession, according to a report last month by Credit Suisse.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 399 Comments

Housing bubble part 2? Don’t hold your breath.

Posted on February 11, 2009 by grim

From HousingWire:

Home Prices to Decline into 2010, Economists Say

Home price declines may continue through 2009 and bottom-out at the end of the year at the earliest, although recovery may not begin until mid-2010 and will take several years, according to one economist that spoke at an outlook panel at the American Securitization Forum taking place this week in Las Vegas. Mark Fleming, chief economist First American CoreLogic, said that in the most optimistic scenario, if the government stimulus took effect today and put the complete brakes on home price decline, the market would still need roughly a year at the very least to display any kind of recovery in home value.

“We’ll have to work our way out,” Fleming said. “Home prices are not like Lamborghinis; they don’t stop on a dime. They’re more like trucks.”
…
Within the same panel, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc., Julia Coronado, echoed Fleming’s home price decline forecast, saying prices will not stabilize until well into 2010. As a reaction to the continued pressure on home prices, households will demonstrate a change in spending while the household savings rate will quickly rise and reach into 5.6 percent in 2010, she said.

“We don’t predict another asset bubble to come to the rescue,” Coronado said. “Too much damage has been done to the financial sector…. We’ll have to get out of this the old-fashioned way, by digging our way out — or saving our way out.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 302 Comments

Moody’s: The sidelines are a good place to be

Posted on February 10, 2009 by grim

Frankly, I don’t think home prices in the NY Metro Area will be hitting a bottom this year. From a timing perspective, the home price declines in the Northeast were running about a year behind home price declines in the West. From an economic perspective, we’ve only just begun to see significant job cuts in the area. In my opinion, we may see prices continue to fall for the next two years here, longer than the Q4 2009 prediction provided by Moody’s. We’ve not reached the necessary levels of affordability, which would require an approximate 30% drop from peak prices. But hey, even if you don’t believe me, listen to the experts. They are predicting nationwide prices to fall another 11% over the next year. The folks over at UBS are much more bearish than Moody’s, they are predicting that NY Metro Area prices “may decline 20-25% (if not more) from current levels”

So why jump in now? The sidelines still look like a very comfortable place to be while you wait for prices to come down even more.

If anyone has access to a copy of the report, I’d love to read it. I’d especially like to see the NY Metro area forecast. Just from skimming the wires, I know they’ve got some later dated “bottom” projections for some areas (I believe they are calling for a 2010 bottom in Florida), and I’ve got a feeling the Moody’s projection for NY Metro is further out than Q4 2009 as well.

From the AFP:

US home prices to hit bottom at year-end: study

The freefall in US housing prices that sparked a global economic crisis will ease by the end of 2009 but not before another leg down, resulting in a 36 percent slide, a study said Monday.

The report by Moody’s Economy.com said home prices in the 381 US metropolitan areas have already dropped an average of 25 percent, and will slide a further 11 percent before stabilizing.

“Notwithstanding the intensifying economic gloom, the bottom of the housing downturn is within sight for the nation,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Economy.com and an author of the report.

“Presuming we see strong action by policymakers to help support the economy and the housing market, prices will begin to recover by the end of this year.”

The study predicts that by the time the market correction is complete, it will have led to double-digit declines in 62 percent of the US metropolitan areas.

The overall economy may take even more time to recover, the report said.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Housing Market May Bottom in 2009, Zandi Says

U.S. home prices will reach bottom by the end of the year, concluding a slide that will have cut values 36 percent, Moody’s Economy.com said today.
…
U.S. home prices will fall another 11 percent on average before stabilizing, according to Moody’s Economy.com. The Case- Shiller home price index will fall 36 percent from its 2006 peak to the bottom this year, Zandi’s study said.

About 62 percent of U.S. metropolitan areas surveyed will record double-digit declines in home prices by the end of the slump, according to today’s report. Prices will fall more than 50 percent in former boom areas such as southeast Florida and parts of California, including Riverside.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 465 Comments

New Jersey banks not “immune…forever”

Posted on February 9, 2009 by grim

From the Philly Inquirer:

Defaults up, demand down at N.J. local banks

New Jersey’s community banks have stayed on solid ground during the economic crisis, but a leading banker predicts a turbulent future.

State and private-sector officials say New Jersey’s 108 chartered banks largely avoided the risky loans and exotic securities that have sunk financial firms worldwide.

Instead, the banks kept it simple, making traditional loans to homebuyers, consumers and businesses.

But now, with the recession deepening, many of those customers are defaulting, and the banks are losing money.
…
John McWeeney, co-chief of the New Jersey Bankers Association, says that demand for traditional loans is also falling, further slicing the banks’ profits.

He says the state’s community banks are not going to be “immune from this recession forever.”

From Newsday:

Defaults up, demand down at NJ’s local banks

New Jersey’s community banks have performed well during the economic crisis, but some face a grim future of loan defaults and thinned profits, a leading banker said Monday.

New Jersey’s 108 chartered banks largely avoided the risky loans and exotic securities that have sunk financial firms worldwide. Instead, the banks kept it simple, making traditional loans to consumers, companies and homebuyers, according to state and private sector officials.

Now, with country mired in the worst recession in decades, many of those customers are defaulting, said John McWeeney, co-chief of the New Jersey Bankers Association, a trade group.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 93 Comments

The End of Farmland Assessment?

Posted on February 9, 2009 by grim

From the Asbury Park Press:

Plug farm tax loopholes

A pair of bills being drafted by state Sen. Jennifer Beck, R-Monmouth, that would revise farmland assessment laws would help keep New Jersey’s agriculture industry productive while preventing wealthy landowners from exploiting the system’s tax loopholes.

But a couple of elements key to ensuring that farming survives — and unwarranted preferential tax treatment does not — must be addressed before the bills become law.

Beck, along with state Sen. Stephen M. Sweeney, D-Gloucester, has introduced a bill that would set standards for crop intensity and livestock capacity that would be used to qualify property for farmland assessment. That would help separate truly productive land from acreage with just enough bee hives or Christmas trees to generate the laughably low $500 in sales currently required to gain a farmland assessment.

Unfortunately, the Beck-Sweeney measure only raises the income threshold to $1,000. It should be closer to $10,000, which would protect legitimate working farmers while weeding out people taking advantage of the tax law.

A second bill Beck has yet to introduce would establish another level of tax benefits for those who want to preserve their land, but wouldn’t qualify for farmland assessment under the new productive-farm rules. For landowners willing to forfeit development rights on their property, the bill would provide a tax break that is lower than working farmers would receive, but higher than landowners who want to retain development rights.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 302 Comments

The New New Jersey Buyer?

Posted on February 8, 2009 by grim

From the New York Times:

Defining the Buyer of the Future

FLUX and turmoil will not rule the state’s residential real estate market forever, as all market specialists agree. But what comes afterward?

“The question isn’t ‘When do things go back to normal?’ ” declared Rutgers University’s planning and public policy dean, James W. Hughes. “It’s ‘What will the new normal look like?’ ”

The short answer from the housing trend analyst Jeffrey G. Otteau: “very different.” Economic, financial and sociological changes now in progress will effectively morph the profile of the typical home buyer over the next 15 years, said Mr. Otteau, whose company, the Otteau Valuation Group, issues monthly reports on trends to subscribing brokers and developers.

“Most striking are numbers that indicate the typical buyer of the future will be childless,” Mr. Otteau said in a recent interview. “Either single, part of a childless couple, or with grown children.”
…
Another major change is that an overwhelming majority of buyers for at least a decade will consider “value” much more important than luxury features or amenities. Economic fallout from the collapse of various Manhattan financial institutions will affect the entire metropolitan region, keeping consumers in a value-oriented mind-set for the foreseeable future, or until new “economic drivers” are found, Mr. Otteau said.

He predicted that these two strong trends — childlessness and economy-mindedness — would combine to have a “topsy-turvy” effect on what has traditionally been considered the most desirable type of housing: the spacious single-family home in a suburban town with great schools.
…
Other factors increasingly important to buyers, as documented by both the Otteau reports and research from the Rutgers University public policy school, are energy costs, commuting time and the availability of mass transit. All these elements enhance the appeal of urban settings.
…
As for developers of the future, Mr. Otteau said they were likely to start paring down the amenities, especially as many are being forced to sell properties for less than it cost to build them.

That will be just fine with the buying public — who will “also demand smaller and more efficient housing with less glitz,” he said, “fewer open common areas, not-so-high ceilings, and not-necessarily-designer cabinets.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Morris County Comp Killers

Posted on February 7, 2009 by grim

Take a deep breath, a sip of coffee, and repeat after me:

Home prices can fall.

Home prices can fall.

Home prices can fall farther than I believe possible.

Home prices can fall for longer I believe possible.

My/Your home is not different.

My/Your street is not different.

My/Your town is not different.

It is not different here.

Home prices are falling and will continue to fall.

Here are a selected group of properties that have closed in Morris over the past month or two. It might help to read about what a comp killer is. Realize that I’m not trying to say that these properties are “good deals”, many of them are not. But what they do show is that prices can, and will fall. This crosses geographic areas, price ranges, shapes and sizes.


Fairfax Terrace, Chatham Twp
Purchased: 7/27/2004
Purchase Price: $765,000
Sold: 1/13/2009
Sale Price: $731,000
4.4% under the 2004 purchase price. 4.4% isn’t a big drop, but keep in mind we’re talking about a mid-2004 purchase price here. Prices were high in 2004, but they went much higher in 2005 and 2006.


Sheepfield Farms Drive, Harding
Purchased: 12/15/2006
Purchase Price: $3,500,000
Sold: 2/4/2009
Sale Price: $3,250,000
7% under the 2006 purchase price. Not a huge drop but we are talking about serious money here. You are looking at a loss of more than $400,000 on this transaction.


Spice Bush Road, Kinnelon
Purchased: 3/1/2006
Purchase Price: $837,500
Sold: 2/6/2009
Sale Price: $667,000 (foreclosure)
Roughly 20% under the 2006 purchase price. This is pretty steep drop for a property in the Smoke Rise community. This foreclosure was taken by the lender in November of 2007.


Lorraine Road, Madison
Purchased: 9/2/2004
Purchase Price: $662,500
Sold: 1/5/2009
Sale Price: $575,000
This is another property where you’ll need to take into account the purchase date. We’re talking about 13% below a 2004 price here. This is a loss of approximately $155k over 4 and a half years of ownership. If you are buying, you’ve got to have a much longer time horizon than this.


Baumgartner Drive, Madison
Purchased: 8/31/2006
Purchase Price: $1,015,000
Sold: 2/2/2009
Sale Price: $830,000
Another big chop for upscale Madison NJ. Approximately 18% under a 2006 purchase price. While this is bad, can you imagine being the guy who bought the very similar house next door for $1,235,000 in 2006?


Walsingham Road, Mendham Twp
Purchased: 6/14/2007
Purchase Price: $1,085,000
Sold: 1/30/2009
Sale Price: $835,000


Lakewood Drive, Denville
Purchased: 7/11/2007
Purchase Price: $545,000
Sold: 1/13/2009
Sale Price: $460,000


Schoolhouse Road, Jefferson
Purchased: 1/26/2007
Purchase Price: $600,000
Sold: 1/27/2009
Sale Price: $440,000


Fairmount Ave, Morris Twp
Purchased: 4/17/2007
Purchase Price: $548,000
Sold: 1/15/2009
Sale Price: $485,000


Sun Valley Way, Morris Plains
Purchased: 9/27/2004
Purchase Price: $489,000
Sold: 1/16/2009
Sale Price: $445,000


Saunders Lane, Hackettstown/Mt. Olive
Purchased: 11/14/2003
Purchase Price: $548,000
Sold: 1/14/2009
Sale Price: $500,000

Posted in Comp Killer, Housing Bubble, Lowball, New Jersey Real Estate | 317 Comments

Montclair Comp Killer!

Posted on February 6, 2009 by grim

Not a Friday afternoon without a comp killer and a bank failure.

Today’s comp killer comes to us from prestigious Upper Montclair, NJ.

This property was acquired by the prior owner during the very frothy Summer 2005 market, in fact, this property was purchased right around the time that the Northern New Jersey Real Estate Bubble Blog (whew!) was founded.

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath beauty was purchased in July of 2005 for what now seems like a completely outrageous sum, $709,000. In bubble market style, the “winning bidder” paid more than $50,000 over asking. Losing bidder would probably be a more accurate description. This kind of overbidding was the norm in 2005. I’ve told the story here before, so I won’t repeat, but I was a bidder on a $500k property that summer that ended up selling for $700k. You know, this very well have been me.

Anyhow, the property came back on the market less than a year later for $774,900. Huh? Yeah, it sat for 70 days before it was withdrawn. They cut the price to $699k, but it didn’t do any good. Flip gone flop? Please tell me the owners didn’t expect a $70,000 bonus for house sitting through the winter.

Seller tried the same game again in 2007, came on the market in March for $639,000. Surprising right? Priced at a loss in 2007 and it didn’t sell. 83 days later it was withdrawn.

Fast forward, 2008, came on the market AGAIN in April. List price was now $599,000, an aggressive price that would leave the seller taking a loss of approximately $130,000. It went under contract this past December, and the closing took place in late January.

The sale price?

$528,110

A loss of more than $200,000 once you factor in the commission! The sale price was 25% below the 2005 purchase price. I thought prices didn’t go down in Upper Montclair?

So much for Montclair real estate!

Posted in Comp Killer, Housing Bubble, Lowball, New Jersey Real Estate | 326 Comments

UBS: NYC Unemployment May Hit 10.5%, Home Prices To Fall 20-25%

Posted on February 5, 2009 by grim

From StreetInsider:

UBS Says New York City Unemployment Could Reach Mid-1970s High

Investment Bank UBS published a report today that said New York City’s economic decline is likely only in the innings and it is likely to only get worse. UBS said the unemployment rate may reach 10.5%, a level not seen since the mid-1970s.

The city’s residential real estate market and employment has held held up better than most areas. Home prices, which declined 14% as of November since their peak, may fall another 20 to 25% “if not more,” according to the report.

In December, NYC unemployment rate was 7.4%, up from 5.1% a year earlier. Financial services accounted for 13% of city employment in 2007.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 279 Comments

January Mass Layoff Notification – 2,216 NJ Jobs Eliminated

Posted on February 5, 2009 by grim

January mass layoff/facility closure notifications were released by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development:

2009-January WARN Notice

COMPANY CITY EFFECTIVE DATE WORKFORCE AFFECTED

Silverton Marine Corp Millville 1/30/09 202

Nielson & Bainbridge Monroe Twp. 3/11/09 105

Apex Express, Inc Jersey City 3/5/09 110

MW Manufacturers Hammonton 3/20/09 212

Motorola, Inc. S. Plainfield 3/27/09 50

Book-Mart Press N. Bergen 3/13/09 72

DSNJ Lakewood 3/7/09 161

Pliva, Inc. East Hanover 4/27/09 120

ITT Systems Division Ft. Dix 3/28/09 83

Roadway Express E. Brunswick 3/1/09 72

Siemens Building Technologies Florham Park 3/9/09 153

Viking Yacht Company New Gretna 3/31/09 541

King Pharmaceuticals Bridgewater 3/29/09 71

BMW of North America Mt Olive 3/31/09 10

Alcan Baltek Northvale 4/23/09 70

Circuit City Stores, Inc. Ledgewood 3/21/09 84

Ryder Integrated Logistics Ledgewood 4/03/09 100

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 459 Comments

Glen Ridge (Lehman Bros) Mega Comp Killer

Posted on February 4, 2009 by grim

Ridgewood Ave, Glen Ridge, New Jersey
Upscale – Check
Desirable – Check
Great Schools – Check (Some would say best-in-state)
Train Town – Check (Jitney at your door!)
Best Street in Town – Check
Mega Comp Killer – Damn Right

This beauty was purchased in June of 2006 by a Lehman Brothers Senior VP. Built in 2002, this baby has got it all, new world materials and old world craftsmanship. 6 Bedrooms, 9 Baths, and 10 other rooms that comprise an 8,900 square foot monument to excess. Taxes? 80 grand.

Purchase price? $3,700,000.00 (Yep, three point seven million)

Fast forward to September 17th, 2008, two days after the Lehman bankruptcy was announced, coincidentally.

Back on the market, this time at a price of $3,900,000.00. Factoring in the 5% commission, the seller would be walking away with roughly $3.7 million at this asking price, two years later and you break even, not too shabby. What real estate crash?

Come October, still not sold. I don’t get it, upscale train town with a great school system? This place should have been snapped up in a.. snap? Guess not, price reduced to $3,675,000.

Another month goes by, now we’re well into November. Still no sale. Price reduced again, $3,350,000. Now we’re firmly into loss territory. Factoring in commission, we’re at roughly a half a million dollar loss here. Surely no problem for a baller of this caliber.

December? Snooze.

January? Snip, price cut to $2,999,000.

Now we’re talking about serious cash. $701,000 under what they paid for it. Factor in that pesky 5% commission and now we’re at a loss of $851,000 in a little over two years.

Comes out to roughly a 10% per year loss, 20% off peak. Not so bad I guess, outperformed the stock market. Oh, wait, one catch… It still hasn’t sold.

Note: Like Lehman, I too forgot to take LEVERAGE into account as a factor of risk. In this case, if the owner made a 20% down payment on the property, the loss would have been roughly 100%.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced | 433 Comments

Foreclosure horror story, Jersey cats left for dead

Posted on February 3, 2009 by grim

From the Buck County Courier Times:

Foreclosed, they leave cats behind

A Horsham couple has been charged with animal cruelty for leaving behind three cats in their former New Jersey home after it had been foreclosed on last month.

Police in Monmouth County, N.J., said that when Paul and Nancy DiAngelantonio, 52 and 50, respectively, moved out of their house, they left their three cats inside, trapped without food or water for three weeks.

“It’s just not something that’s acceptable,” said Victor “Buddy” Amato, chief of police for the Monmouth County Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

According to Amato, the foreclosure was finalized at the end of the year, and the DiAngelantonios had to move out the first few days of January. They packed all of their belongings, including their two dogs, leaving the house empty but for the cats.

The couple said they returned to the home within the next few days, but couldn’t find the cats.

Three weeks later, a real estate agent went to the home to prepare it for sale and found the cats. The agent called police, and animal control officers from the Associated Humane Societies of New Jersey came to investigate.

The officer found two of the cats alive, but in their starvation they had eaten the third cat.

On Friday, Monmouth SPCA Sgt. Matthew Giuliano went to the couple’s new apartment where they moved two weeks ago, accompanied by Horsham police officers, and charged the DiAngelantonios with 14 counts of animal cruelty. Each charge can result in a fine of up to $1,000 and six months in prison.
…
Dexter and Milo – the names the humane society gave the two surviving cats – are available for adoption to a good home.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 178 Comments

Pending Home Sales Fall In Northeast

Posted on February 3, 2009 by grim

From the WSJ:

Pending Home Sales Increase

A forecasting gauge of home sales unexpectedly increased during December, a realtors’ group said.

The National Association of Realtors’ index for pending sales of previously owned homes increased 6.3% to 87.7 from 82.5 in November, the industry group said Tuesday.

Private analysts projected pending sales would fall 0.5% during December.
…
Lower prices elevated the index for pending sales, the NAR said. “The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR. “The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability.”
…
By region, the Northeast decreased 1.7% in December from November; it had gone down 14.5% since December 2007.

From MarketWatch:

Pending home sales rise 6.3% in December

The number of new sales contracts on existing homes jumped a seasonally adjusted 6.3% in December as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and falling prices, a real estate trade group said Tuesday.

The pending home sales index rose 6.3% in December and is now up 2.1% compared with a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said.

The increase points to a healthy gain in existing-home sales in January and February. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR’s existing home sales report.

Pending sales surged in the Midwest and South, offsetting small declines in the Northeast and West.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Pending Home Resales Rise as Prices, Rates Drop

More Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in December for the first time in four months, signaling slumping prices may be boosting demand.

The index of pending home resales climbed 6.3 percent to 87.7, the first increase since August, from a revised 82.5 in November, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today in Washington. Pending sales rose in two of four regions.

Record foreclosures are pushing down home values, making homes more affordable for those buyers able to get financing. Still, restrictive lending rules and further price declines are likely to scare away the majority of purchasers, indicating the real-estate recession will persist for a fourth year in 2009.

“Lower prices probably have attracted some buyers,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who projected an increase. Still, “the rise may be difficult to sustain.”
…
The report showed pending resales jumped 13 percent in both the South and Midwest regions. Signed purchase contracts declined 3.7 percent in the West and 1.7 percent in the Northeast.

“The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability,” Lawrence Yun, the group’s chief economist, said in a statement. The NAR’s affordability index reached a record high in December.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 146 Comments

Zillow: US Housing Market Down $6.1 Trillion

Posted on February 3, 2009 by grim

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Property Owners Lost $3.3 Trillion in Home Value Last Year

The U.S. housing market lost $3.3 trillion in value last year and almost one in six owners with mortgages owed more than their homes were worth as the economy went into recession, Zillow.com said.

The median estimated home price declined 11.6 percent in 2008 to $192,119 and homeowners lost $1.4 trillion in value in the fourth quarter alone, the Seattle-based real estate data service said in a report today.

“It’s like a runaway train gaining momentum,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s vice president of data and analytics, said in an interview. “It’s difficult to say when we’ll see a bottom to the housing market.”

The U.S. economy shrank the most in the fourth quarter since 1982, contracting at a 3.8 percent annual pace, the Commerce Department said on Jan. 30. Record foreclosures have pushed down prices as unemployment rose. More than 2.3 million properties got a default or auction notice or were seized by lenders last year, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of data on defaults.

About $6.1 trillion of value has been lost since the housing market peaked in the second quarter of 2006 and last year’s decline was almost triple the $1.3 trillion lost in 2007, Zillow said.

Values have dropped for eight straight quarters. They fell in Manhattan for the first time since Zillow began including the New York City borough in its records two years ago.
…
“A witch’s brew of economic insecurity, foreclosures and tightened lending standards are helping to keep hard-hit markets down and to widen the scope of markets showing declines,” Humphries said in a statement accompanying the report.

The number of homeowners with negative equity, or those who owed more on their homes than the property was worth, rose to 17.6 percent from 14.3 percent in the third quarter, Zillow said. The company began its quarterly reports in 2006.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 140 Comments

The next “bomb” to drop

Posted on February 2, 2009 by grim

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Mortgage Time Bomb Needs Defusing Yesterday: John F. Wasik

When talking about the U.S. home market, mentioning “the other shoe to drop” was quaint about a year ago. Now we are referring only to bombs.

The latest ordnance is the option adjustable-rate mortgage, one of the many sucker loans marketed during the housing boom. Option ARMs basically gave borrowers four ways to pay back, most of them involving low initial outlays that would reset at much higher monthly amounts at a future date.

Of the $200 billion of these loans outstanding, almost $30 billion is due to reset this year and $67 billion in 2010, according to Fitch Ratings, a New York-based ratings company.

The resets inflict more trauma on the U.S. housing market. The average option ARM monthly payment will soar 63 percent — or $1,052. Although there was a slight increase in home sales in November, prices fell 18 percent from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.

The pain continues. Since most option ARM borrowers will be unable to refinance because of lowered credit ratings or lack of home equity, many of those resets will result in more foreclosures and further depress home prices.

Ultimately, the option-ARM resets might plunge 8 million more households into foreclosure. That’s in addition to the 2.3 million facing home loss last year, says Eric Rothmann, an analyst for Zacks Investment Research in Chicago.
…
The shock-and-awe days of the housing crisis are far from over because of these loans and their cousins: subprime, “Alt- A” and some prime mortgages. While Barack Obama’s administration struggles to fix the banking industry, it will be difficult to directly remove these loans — and related securities — from balance sheets without triggering billions in writedowns.

The option-ARM barrage will exacerbate the housing decline in the worst-hit areas.

Homes that can’t be refinanced probably won’t be sold immediately. Assuming no government aid comes along to help these homeowners, the houses will go into foreclosure and be resold at much lower prices. That fuels what economists call a “feedback loop” of ever-lower values.

Houses that are resold are discounted at least 30 percent from the original selling prices, according to U.S. researchers John Campbell, Stefano Giglio and Parag Pathak, who studied 1.8 million transactions in Massachusetts over the past 20 years.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 413 Comments