Hunterdon Comp Killer!

Posted on February 1, 2009 by grim

Thanks to willwork4beer for compiling this weeks list of Hunterdon County Comp Killers!


MLS#: 2624439
312 BYRAM-KINGWOOD RD
Kingwood Twp
Purchase: 05/14/04 $465,900
Original List Price: 03/25/08 $549,900
SOLD: 01/30/09 $370,000
20.59% off the 05/04 sale price
32.72% off 03/08 OLP


MLS#: 2551061
12 Rowlands Road
Readington Twp
Purchase Price: 09/10/03 $750,000
Original List Price: 04/10/06 $917,500
SOLD: 01/29/09 $637,500
15.00% off 09/03 sale price
30.52% off 04/06 OLP


MLS#: 2577333
38 Hillside Ct
Union Twp
Purchased: 08/18/04 $182,000
Original List Price: 09/13/08 $165,000
SOLD: 01/27/09 $150,000
17.59% off 08/04 sale price
09.10% off 09/08 OLP

And a handful of future comp killers too!

(No Photo)
MLS#: 2638845
619 FOX FARM RD
Bethlehem Twp
Purchase Price: 02/21/07 $265,000
Current Asking Price: 01/27/09 $210,000
20.76% off 02/07 sale price


MLS#: 2639482
33 Jockey Hollow
Bethlehem Twp
Purchase Price: 07/11/06 $565,500
Current Asking Price: 01/27/09 $475,000
16.01% off 07/06 sale price


MLS#: 2637608
24 WILLOW BROOK LANE
Clinton Twp
Purchase Price: 02/01/06 $725,000
Current Asking Price: 01/27/09 $675,000
06.90% off 02/06 sale price


MLS#: 2636882
3 MORNINGSIDE CT
Raritan Twp
Purchase Price: 01/25/05 $935,836
Current Asking Price: 01/25/09 $909,000
02.87% off 01/05 sale price
12.18% off 07/08 OLP


MLS#: 2636915
4 Rachel Court
Union Twp
Purchase Price: 06/07/05 $660,000
Current Asking Price: 01/25/09 $579,000
12.28% off 06/05 sale price
10.93% off 07/08 OLP

Posted in Comp Killer, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 189 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

Posted on January 30, 2009 by grim

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 435 Comments

Bergen County Comp Killers!

Posted on January 29, 2009 by grim

Hat tip to Rich in NNJ for pulling this list together! Make sure you thank Rich for his hard work!


BERGENFIELD
90 LINCOLN AVE
SOLD: $388,000 12/12/2006
SOLD: $262,000 1/9/2009


CLIFFSIDE PARK
268 WAYNE AVE
SOLD: $410,000 2/6/2004
SOLD: $345,500 1/12/2009


CRESSKILL
308 GRANT AVE
SOLD: $1,630,000 12/6/2006
SOLD: $1,350,000 1/22/2009


DUMONT
52 W LINDEN AVE
SOLD: $355,000 7/7/2006
SOLD: $310,000 1/21/2009


ELMWOOD PARK
30 LINWOOD AVE
SOLD: $445,000 12/27/2002
SOLD: $430,000 4/6/2004
SOLD: $290,000 1/16/2009


ELMWOOD PARK
109 BELLEVUE AVE
SOLD: $436,000 6/23/2005
SOLD: $329,770 1/20/2009


EMERSON
136 DYER AVE
SOLD: $280,000 10/29/2004
SOLD: $410,000 11/23/2005
SOLD: $250,000 12/31/2008


ENGLEWOOD
297 MARY ST
SOLD: $353,000 4/27/2006
SOLD: $280,000 1/7/2009


ENGLEWOOD CLIFFS
27 GERALDINE CT
SOLD: $1,340,000 9/6/2005
SOLD: $1,295,000 1/22/2009


FORT LEE
2469 HAMMETT AVE
SOLD: $359,000 3/2/2005
SOLD: $285,000 12/31/2008


FORT LEE
219 BELLEMEADE AVE
SOLD: $700,000 11/17/2003
SOLD: $600,000 1/19/2009


LEONIA
49 HAWTHORNE TER
SOLD: $429,000 3/28/2003
SOLD: $429,000 1/16/2009

(No Photo)
LITTLE FERRY
2 VELOCK DR
SOLD: $379,900 7/10/2006
SOLD: $224,900 1/23/2009


MAYWOOD
49 GROVE AVE
SOLD: $348,000 7/21/2005
SOLD: $289,000 12/30/2008


OLD TAPPAN
60 CHERYL LN
SOLD: $825,000 4/19/2004
SOLD: $770,000 12/31/2008


RAMSEY
65 MAPLE ST
SOLD: $410,000 2/2/2005
SOLD: $399,000 12/31/2008


RIDGEWOOD
312 LINCOLN AVE
SOLD: $790,000 12/22/2004
SOLD: $720,000 1/9/2009


RUTHERFORD
29 WINGRA AVE
SOLD: $380,000 7/20/2005
SOLD: $310,000 1/9/2009


TEANECK
17 LEROME PL
SOLD: $355,000 2/16/2006
SOLD: $260,000 1/23/2009


TEANECK
124 BEDFORD AVE
SOLD: $375,000 2/6/2005
SOLD: $288,000 1/26/2009


TEANECK
1164 KENSINGTON RD
SOLD: $442,000 8/25/2004
SOLD: $375,000 1/8/2009


TEANECK
745 QUEEN ANNE RD
SOLD: $775,000 12/2/2002
SOLD: $777,500 1/22/2009


TENAFLY
94 OAK ST
SOLD: $639,000 7/15/2003
SOLD: $625,000 1/15/2009


WALDWICK
18 SMITH ST
SOLD: $550,000 7/15/2005
SOLD: $440,000 1/16/2009


WASHINGTON TWNSHP
378 FERN ST
SOLD: $740,000 6/23/2006
SOLD: $416,000 1/12/2009


WYCKOFF
727 MOUNTAIN AVE
SOLD: $562,500 8/15/2006
SOLD: $460,000 1/16/2009

Posted in Comp Killer, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 386 Comments

But will it work?

Posted on January 29, 2009 by grim

From the Wall Street Journal:

House Passes Stimulus Package

The House passed an $819 billion tax-and-spending bill Wednesday, in a recession-fighting effort that would extend the reach of the federal government across the U.S. economy by reshaping policy on energy, education, health care and social programs.

The House bill is one of the largest single stimulus packages in history, almost equal to the entire cost of annual federal spending under Congress’s discretion. A parallel Senate measure, which is expected to come to a vote next week, is now valued at nearly $900 billion.

Either bill, if enacted, would push the federal debt toward levels not seen since the second World War.
…
Although most of the money — about $526 billion — will be spent in 2009 and 2010, spending on some programs, including student-loan programs, clean-water projects and housing assistance, is expected to last well beyond the current recession. The House bill expands access to health care for the unemployed, represents perhaps the largest expansion of the federal government’s role in education financing ever and begins what Mr. Obama has promised will be a push toward renewable energy that will continue throughout his presidential tenure.
…
“The strategy under this bill is to throw billions of dollars in every bureaucratic direction, and cross our fingers and hope for the best,” said Rep. Ken Calvert (R., Calif.) Wednesday during debate on the House floor.

“We need to compare the cost of this package against the cost of doing nothing. The cost of nothing would be catastrophic,” said Rep. David Obey (D., Wis.).

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, Politics | 509 Comments

New Jersey Condos – A Look At The Last Crash

Posted on January 28, 2009 by grim

(This is a repost of a piece I posted in August of 2006)

Decided to spend some time going through the tax records to see if I could determine how condos were affected during the last real estate crash. I’m sure many of you have spent time working with these systems to get an idea of prior sales or to snoop on neighbors.

These sales records represent a history of the real estate market over time. However, trying to clearly illustrate how the market reacted over time using these sales is not easy. Homes are not identical and sales are infrequent. In order to track the market you would need to find a number of comparable homes that have sold multiple times over the period.

Condos and Townhomes are better candidates for this type of analysis. Units are relatively similar, and large scale developments offer numerous sales data points over time.

I pulled the tax records for a handful of large-scale developments that were built during the last real estate boom to see what I could find. The first development that I took a look at is located in Clifton. Selected this one because I remember it being built in the mid to late 80’s. I’ve grouped these together by street and assessment value.

The next development is also in Clifton. At this point I was trying my hardest to try to think of any large-scale development I remember being built at that time. I was hoping that this building would have offered as many datapoints as the complex above, but unfortunately it did not. Interesting nonetheless.

At this point I had racked my brain trying to remember the names and streets of condo developments. I spent some time flying around with google maps trying to pick out large-scale condo developments that fit the timeframe. Just when I was about to give up, this one popped into mind. This is very large scale development in West Windsor called Canal Point. This was built during the peak of the last bubble. I believe this complex saw auctions in the early 90’s.

There are a few points to take away from this:

1) Prices can fall dramatically. We’re not talking about a stagnant market where real values are eroded over time by inflation, but large nominal price declines. None of these numbers are inflation adjusted. Can you imagine buying a condo for $130,000 and it being worth $93,000 ten years later? Real estate goes down too.

2) Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security because you are planning on staying for 10 years. In many of these cases, the market declined steadily for ten years before hitting bottom. It took another bubble for them to break even.

3) There have been a number of comments lately stating that owners will simply take their properties off the market during a downturn, they just won’t sell. That simply isn’t the case. Many of these owners sold at substantial losses.

Caveat Emptor!
Grim

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 375 Comments

S&P: New York Commutable Area Home Prices

Posted on January 27, 2009 by grim

Updated the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index graphs with the November release data. These graphs show all indicies for the NY Metro Commutable Area. As the name implies, this price index covers regions that are within commutable distance to New York City and does include other states. New to the series is the condo index, which has been added to the graphs.

The aggregate index shows home prices in this region peaking in June of 2006. The total price decline to date in the aggregate index is 13.45%. The tiered price index gives us a bit more visibility into the price movement of different categories of homes.

Low Tier (Under $320407) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 15.52% from peak

Mid Tier ($320407 – $476338) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 14.76% from peak

High Tier (Over $476338) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 9.72% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 13.45% from peak

The first graph is the year over year change in the index.


(click to enlarge)

The second graph is straight index value.


(click to enlarge)

It is still too early to be calling for any kind of bottom in the region. Unlike other regions that show home price declines beginning to slow, the declines appear to be accelerating in our region. In fact, the most recent data point is the steepest decline since the last cycle. The rate of decline peaked at 8.9% in March of 1991. See below:

S&P CS NY Commutable Year over Year Price Change
Jan 07 -0.34%
Feb 07 -0.91%
Mar 07 -0.91%
Apr 07 -1.56%
May 07 -2.35%
Jun 07 -2.94%
Jul 07 -3.20%
Aug 07 -3.35%
Sep 07 -3.60%
Oct 07 -4.09%
Nov 07 -4.61%
Dec 07 -5.48%
Jan 08 -5.80%
Feb 08 -6.70%
Mar 08 -7.48%
Apr 08 -7.98%
May 08 -7.74%
Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.03%
Aug 08 -6.60%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.65%
Nov 08 -8.59%

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 69 Comments

S&P Case Shiller – November home prices fall 18.2%

Posted on January 27, 2009 by grim

From the AP:

S&P: Home values post 18.2 pct annual drop in Nov.

A closely watched index shows home prices dropped by the sharpest annual rate on record in November.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index released Tuesday tumbled by a record 18.2 percent from November 2007, the largest decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.1 percent, tied with October for the biggest drop in its 21-year history.

Both indices have recorded year-over-year declines for 23 straight months. Prices are at levels not seen since February 2004.

Prices in the 20-city index have plummeted 25.1 percent from their peak in July 2006. The 10-city index has fallen 26.6 percent since its peak in June 2006.

All 20 cities recorded year-over-year declines in November.

From Bloomberg:

November Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18.2% From Year Ago

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as foreclosures climbed and sales sank.

The decrease in the S&P/Case-Shiller index was in line with forecasts and followed an 18.1 percent drop in October. The gauge has fallen started falling in January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

Record foreclosures have contributed to more than $1 trillion in losses worldwide that have prompted banks to shut off access to credit. While plunging values have made homes more affordable, they have also hurt household wealth, contributing to a slump in spending that’s likely to continue for the first half of the year.

“The decline has accelerated over the past few months due to the increase in deeply discounted foreclosure sales,” Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said before the report. “The decline in the housing market worsened markedly at the end of last year.”

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 18.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17.4 percent to 20 percent.
…
“The freefall in residential real estate continued through November,” David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement. “Overall, more than half of the metro areas had record annual declines.”
…
The 20-city index is down 25 percent from its 2006 peak. Eleven of the 20 metropolitan areas showed record declines in the year ended in November, and eight showed the biggest month-to- month decrease on record.

From CNBC:

Home Prices Plunge Record 18 Percent in November

Prices of single-family homes plunged a record 18.2 percent in November from a year earlier, indicative of a housing market that is still in the throes of a deep recession, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.

The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2 percent in November from October, S&P said in a statement on Tuesday. The depreciation on a month-over-month basis was slightly worse than expectations based on a Reuters survey of economists.
…
S&P said its composite index of 10 metropolitan areas fell 2.2 percent in November from October for a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop, matching the previous month’s record drop.

“The freefall in residential real estate continued through November 2008,” David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s, said in a statement.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 224 Comments

South Jersey jobless rates hit double digits

Posted on January 27, 2009 by grim

From the Press of Atlantic City:

Region’s jobless rates still worst in state for month of December

Jobless rates in southern New Jersey counties – already the highest in the state – jumped by a fifth in December to double-digit or near double-digit levels.

Atlantic County lost 2,600 jobs in December, more than it lost in the previous 11 months combined, according to state data released Monday.

“We used to think that the casinos were recession-proof and they’d help us through. That’s obviously not true anymore,” said Richard Perniciaro, director of business research at Atlantic Cape Community College. “What really hurts is that most of what people do down here is discretionary spending, and many aren’t spending if they have the choice.”

Cape May County’s unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in December, up from 10.2 percent the month before, and remains the highest in New Jersey. A year ago, it was just 8.5 percent.

With 10.4 percent jobless, Cumberland County had the state’s second worst picture of unemployment in December.

And Atlantic County, with 9.6 percent out of work, rounded out the three-worst counties for employment in the state. The next highest jobless rate in December was in Passaic County, with 8.4 percent.

Ocean County continued to trend with the northern half of the state, its rate rising 1.3 percentage points to 7.9 percent.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 88 Comments

December sales down 3.5% YOY, median price down 15.3%

Posted on January 26, 2009 by grim

Just a quick note on the regional data:

Northeast was the worst performer in terms of sales in December.

Seasonally adjusted sales down 1.4% from the prior month and 14.3% from last December. Significantly worse than the -3.5% year-over-year figure seen nationwide.

Median prices in the Northeast are down 7.8% in the past year and average prices are down 7.9%. From a pricing perspective, the Northeast is still showing smaller price declines than other regions on a year over year basis.

Condos and Coops are performing worse than single family homes in the Northeast. Sales of Condos are down 24.4% year over year, and median price is down 9.1%. Over the same period, sales of single family homes are down 9.8%, and the median price is down 8.3%.

Now, you are probably looking at the price breakdown and scratching your head. If condo prices are down 9.1% and SFH prices down 8.3%, why is the overall median price in the Northeast down only 7.8%? This is due to mix-shift. The median is being elevated by significantly fewer sales of lower priced properties. With condo sales down almost 25% year over year, the mix of properties being sold has shifted enough to keep the median higher than it would have been if the mix had not shifted.

From MarketWatch:

Existing-home sales rise 6.5% as prices plunge
For full year, sales fall 13% while prices drop a record 9.3%

Sales of existing homes rose 6.5% in December to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.74 million as prices continued to plunge at a record pace, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday.

Sales in December were down 3.5% from the previous December.

For 2008 as a whole, sales fell 13.1% to 4.91 million, the industry trade group said. November and December were the weakest sales months of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The median sales price fell to $175,400 in December, down a record 15.3% compared with a year earlier. For all of 2008, median prices dropped 9.3% to $198,600, the lowest level since 2004.

The price decline is likely the largest since the Great Depression in the 1930s, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the trade group.

About 45% of the transactions in December were considered distress sales, either a short sale or a home in foreclosure. Many foreclosure sales are handled outside the realtors’ system and are not reported in this report.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump

Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose from a record low, propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression as foreclosures surged.

Purchases rose 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.74 million from 4.45 million in November that was less than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 15 percent from a year ago, the biggest decline since records began in 1968 and probably the biggest in seven decades, according to the group.

“You have to put it in the context of an even steeper decline for the previous month,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who had the highest projection in the Bloomberg News survey. “The net trend is still negative. It does seem that some cheap prices are attracting buyers. I don’t think it’s a clear sign of a revival in the housing market. The housing market is very weak.”
…
Sales were down 3.5 percent compared with a year earlier. Resales averaged 4.91 million in 2008, down 13 percent from 2007 and the fewest in 11 years.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 314 Comments

Comp Killer Sunday Football Edition

Posted on January 25, 2009 by grim

Today’s comp killer comes to us courtesy of Luxist

Turns out football superstar Terrell Owens is significantly underwater on his Moorestown, NJ estate.

His property, on Cove and Landing in Moorestown, was purchased in May of 2004 for an astounding $3.9 million dollars. The property is currently listed by Prudential Fox and Roach Realtors.

Spread out over 5.7 acres, the estate features 5 bedrooms, 9 bathrooms, 3 car garage, adult game room, roman path, pool, jacuzzis, and on and on.

Luxist reports that this listing came on the market at $3.4 million, $500,000 under the 2004 purchase price. Current asking price on the property is $2.96 million, $940,000 below purchase, or approximately a 25% cut from the original purchase price. A steal for a home that was featured on MTV Cribs!

Turns out that Owens originally listed the property for sale for $4.399 million according to the Inquirer Early Word Blog in a report back from 2006. That would put this property at roughtly 38% under the original list price. Another article in the Inquirer puts the original list date sometime in October of 2005, a year and a half or so after purchase.

Update, 7:52am

Gets even better, found another Prudential Fox and Roach listing via Trulia that puts the current asking at $2.675 million. The property is now listed at $1.225 million below purchase, a 31% discount to Owens’ original purchase price and an amazing 44% below the original list price.

Posted in Comp Killer, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 101 Comments

Nowhere Zen New Jersey

Posted on January 24, 2009 by grim

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Hidden State of Culture

New Jersey is America’s secret treasure-house of culture.

If that strikes you as a proposition out of an absurdist play, consider a sampling of the gifted figures who have either come from Jersey or made a home there: Bruce Springsteen (N.J.’s state songbird); Frank Sinatra, Frankie Valli; Walt Whitman, William Carlos Williams, Allen Ginsberg; the painters George Inness and John Marin; the photographer Alfred Stieglitz; Stephen Crane, Philip Roth, Junot Díaz; and David Chase, creator of “The Sopranos.”

California? Too much fantasy, too much hazardous sunlight and too much obsession with software and hard bodies. New York City? Too much reality, too little sunlight and too much obsession, period. Everywhere in between? Riches, to be sure, but no place has New Jersey’s tightly packed diversity, its quick changes from urban to country, from mountains to coast, from gritty to gorgeous.

Of course, think “New Jersey” and cultural epicenter doesn’t immediately spring to mind. Instead, the name summons up unsparing caricature: grime, gangsters, pollution, ugly highways, Byzantine shopping malls, Saharan parking lots and a level of culture somewhere between troglodyte and troll.

Posted in General | 209 Comments

Glut of foreclosed homes waiting to hit the market

Posted on January 23, 2009 by grim

From CNN/Money:

Flood of foreclosures: It’s worse than you think

Housing might be in worse shape than we think.

There is probably even more excess housing inventory gumming up the market than current statistics indicate, thanks to a wave of foreclosures that has yet to hit the market.

The problem: Many foreclosed homes and other distressed properties that are now owned by banks have yet to be listed for sale. The volume of this so-called ‘ghost inventory’ could be substantial enough to depress already steeply falling prices when it does go on the market.

“That’s not good news,” said Pat Newport, an analyst with IHS Global Insight. “[Excess] inventory is the biggest problem in housing these days, and it leads to lower housing prices, which leads to more foreclosures.”

RealtyTrac, the online marketer of foreclosed properties, recently discovered that it has far more foreclosed properties listed it its database, which the company compiles using courthouse records, than there are listed in the multiple listing services (MLS) maintained by real estate agents.
…
“Either lenders are overwhelmed and can’t get these properties back on sale quickly” said RealtyTrac spokesman Rick Sharga, “or they’re deliberately slowing down.”
…
The chief problem is probably system overload: Lenders are just not prepared to handle the sheer numbers of foreclosures that they have on their books. Banks took back about 860,000 in 2008 – more than twice the number in 2007 – according to RealtyTrac. Before the housing crisis hit, it took only about a month to get a bank-owned foreclosure on the market.

Lenders still insist they try to act as swiftly as possible. According to Tom Kelly, a spokesman for Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) Mortgage, their goal is to cut their losses on these homes, which are expensive to maintain, as fast as possible.

But banks might hold back listings in areas where they already have lots of homes for sale in order to avoid flooding the market, according to Michael Youngblood, a financial analyst and founder of Five Bridges Capital, an asset management company.

“If lenders have a significant number of properties in a limited area, they may want to stagger putting them back on the market,” he said.
…
Bank-owned properties are in worse condition than ever because the foreclosure process is taking longer than ever. As much as a year can pass between the time a borrower first misses a payment and the final auction sale, according to Youngblood. During that time, houses often deteriorate because owners have neither the money nor the incentive to maintain them. Some disgruntled homeowners may even deliberately damage homes before they leave.

“According to our servicing folks, it’s taking more time for lenders to get properties in saleable condition,” said Mechem.

The phenomenon of a growing ghost inventory doesn’t promise to get better anytime soon, as long as the rate of foreclosures continues to ravage the market. There were more than 3.1 million foreclosure filings in 2008, according to RealtyTrac.

Said Sharga: “I don’t see how we can avoid another 3 million in 2009.”

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 181 Comments

Good news for renters, not so good for landlords

Posted on January 23, 2009 by grim

From BusinessWeek:

Rents Drop Nationwide as Vacancies Spike

The economic crisis has opened up opportunities for apartment tenants. The inventory of vacant apartments is expanding, and rents are dropping quickly in major metros across the country.

For renters with leases about to expire, it’s time to negotiate. Landlords are working extra hard these days to keep units filled.
…
The New York metro area, including New York City and its New York and northern New Jersey suburbs, saw a 3.7% drop-off in effective rents in the fourth quarter (compared with a 0.5% increase in the fourth quarter of 2007), according to Axiometrics, which surveys landlords across the nation once a month.

The situation has changed dramatically in the expensive Manhattan market, where tenants are suddenly in control. The layoffs on Wall Street have forced landlords to cut rents; offer one, two, or even three months’ free rent; and pay the broker fee that the tenant would otherwise pay (often 12% of the annual rent).
…
Vacancies are rising most in the high-end doorman buildings, particularly in the Financial District, said Daniel Baum, chief operating officer for the Real Estate Group NY, a residential sales and rental brokerage firm. But rents are falling all across Manhattan, in all price categories, he said. Some landlords have dropped rents as much as 20% to lure tenants, he said.

“The luxury high-rise market, especially new construction, is the one taking the worst hit,” Baum said. “There’s a building offering three months’ free rent in the Financial District.”

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 314 Comments

FHFA: November Home Price Fall At Record Pace

Posted on January 22, 2009 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Home prices fall record 1.8% in November

U.S. home values dropped at the fastest pace on record in November as the fury of the financial storm hit housing market.

Home prices fell a record 1.8% in November, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. That’s the largest one-month decline since 1991 when the agency began tracking repeat sales data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Home prices fell in all nine regions of the country in November, the agency said. FHFA runs Fannie and Freddie following the government takeover in September.

In the past year, home prices are down a record 8.7%, compared with a 7.5% drop through October. Prices have fallen 22% in the Pacific region in the past year.

Since the peak in early 2007, national home prices are down 10.5%, with declines in all nine regions, FHFA said.

From Bloomberg:

Housing Prices, Starts Tumble at Record Pace in U.S. Recession

Home prices in the U.S. dropped the most in at least 18 years and builders broke ground on the fewest houses since record-keeping began as the recession deepened, government reports said today.

Prices in November declined 8.7 percent from a year earlier, the biggest drop in records going back to 1991, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in Washington. Housing starts fell 16 percent last month to an annual rate of 550,000, the lowest since the government started compiling statistics in 1959, the Commerce Department said.

From HousingWire:

Record Home Price Decline in November, FHFA Says

A wealth of other home price data has shown that November and December were rough months for the nation’s varied housing markets; new data released Thursday morning by the Federal Housing Finance Agency shows that housing woes are continuing to extend their reach into conforming lending markets, as well.
…
Prices in November now roughly correspond to home values last seen in March 2005, according to the report. And if our premonitions are correct, we still have further to fall in the months ahead.

From Forbes:

Gov’t index shows monthly drop in home prices

U.S. home prices fell 1.8 percent between October and November 2008, more than the 1.1 percent decline in the previous month, according to a government report.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly house price index also showed that prices declined 8.7 percent in the 12 months ended in November. Since April 2007, when the index peaked, prices have fallen 10.5 percent, the report showed.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 120 Comments

NJ Unemployment Skyrockets to 7.1%

Posted on January 21, 2009 by grim

From the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development:

New Jersey’s Estimated December Employment Fell by 15,200 Unemployment Rate Rose to 7.1 Percent

TRENTON, January 21, 2009 – The effects of the national recession are having an increasing impact on employment in the Garden State, according to the latest data. Employment in New Jersey was down substantially in December, lower by 15,200 jobs, and the state’s unemployment rate rose to 7.1 percent. Additionally, preliminary employment estimates for November were revised dramatically lower, indicating a loss of 19,600 jobs in November. (See note on Page 2.)

“The end of 2008 was marked by a deepening national recession and New Jersey certainly felt its effects,” said Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow. “Last month, New Jersey employers cut large numbers of jobs in such industries as professional and business services, retail trade, construction, and manufacturing, mirroring the national trend.”

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has instituted changes in estimation procedures which may not provide an accurate picture of New Jersey’s labor market during the last two months of 2008.

The state’s unemployment rate rose in December, up by 1.0 percentage points, to 7.1 percent from the November rate of 6.1 percent and is New Jersey’s highest unemployment rate in nearly 15 years (March 1994). New Jersey’s December rate remains below the United States rate, which increased by 0.5 percentage point to 7.2 percent last month, the highest national unemployment rate in 16 years. The comparable New Jersey jobless rate for the same month one year ago was 4.2 percent.

Job reductions in December 2008 were recorded in both the private (-14,600) and public sectors (-600) of New Jersey’s economy. Substantial private sector job losses in December occurred in the following supersectors: professional and business services (-5,000), trade, transportation and utilities (-4,500), construction (-3,000), manufacturing (-1,900), and education and health services (-1,900). The only sectors to record job gains were leisure and hospitality (+1,300) and other services (+900).

Over the month, the unadjusted workweek for manufacturing workers decreased by 0.1 hours to 41.3 hours, average hourly earnings rose by $0.07 to $18.19 and weekly earnings were up by $1.08 to $751.25. Compared with December of last year, the unadjusted workweek for manufacturing workers was down by 0.9 hours, average hourly earnings rose by $0.55 and weekly earnings were higher by $6.84.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 205 Comments