New Jersey Real Estate Report

From USA Today:

Jack Jentzen never saw it coming. Four years ago, as a real estate agent in Elgin, Ill., he was enjoying the rewards of the most frenzied U.S. housing market in decades, and money poured in.
Now he’s fighting to keep his home.

The real estate slump that hit in 2006 eventually stifled home sales, shrank prices and unleashed a wave of foreclosures. And as it did, the hardest-hit victims included a group of people, such as Jentzen, who never imagined they had anything to fear: real estate agents themselves.

Tens of thousands of Realtors have been forced to quit the industry in the past couple of years. Some are enduring their own agonizing foreclosures. Agents who had staked their fortunes on galloping home sales now struggle to afford health care, utilities and other basics.

Some, like Jentzen, are trying to build new careers. Others are pursuing drastic and aggressive tactics to tough out the housing slump, from embracing new marketing plans to spending thousands to earn advanced designations they hope will help them stand out from the competition. Some say the housing collapse is undermining their professional self-esteem.

“I’m looking at jobs that are way lower than what I was once making,” says Jentzen, 43.
…
“The realty industry is quickly becoming a shadow of what it was,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Economy.com. “For those who remain employed, their compensation has plunged. Realtors were also among the most aggressive housing investors. Many made the error of working and investing with leverage in the same industry, something financial planners counsel strongly against.”
…
“Some members are saying there are too many Realtors out there who are bringing additional competition, and a shake-up is expected,” says Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. “We do anticipate lower membership going forward since housing recovery is taking longer.”
…
Robert Millosh, a Realtor for Re/Max in Middlesex County, N.J., says he’ll need to find some other job to stay in the area. He used to earn at least $30,000 annually as a Realtor. Right now, he says, home sales are so dismal that he’s looking at a job change or a move to Florida or Pennsylvania.

“I am almost broke and struggling to get by from day to day,” says Millosh, who is 45 and single. “I’m having an estate sale for most of the furniture I have that I don’t need. My life has been ripped apart.”

Milltown, N.J., is a quaint small town, the kind of place families want to move to. They have an all-American Fourth of July celebration, with a parade, fishing, rodeo, a band in the park and fireworks at night. Millosh says it would be a hard place to abandon, but he might not have a choice.

From the NY Times:

Economists Plumb the Depths of the Downturn

Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, economists generally agree that the United States is not heading for another Great Depression.

Not only are the conditions far less dire, eight economists said in interviews, but the government is playing a heightened role in trying to cushion the impact of the housing downturn, losses at financial institutions and rising unemployment.

“The government is larger now and it acts as an anchor,” said Richard Parker, senior fellow at the Shorenstein Center at Harvard. “During the Great Depression, the government had neither the means nor the capability to serve as a backstop.”

But the economists — who range from academics to policy researchers, liberals to conservatives — disagreed about just how bad this economic slowdown, led by the worst housing slump since the Depression, could be.

“I think we’ll see a miserable job market and, consequently, an eroded standard of living for the vast majority of Americans for several years,” said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal research organization in Washington.

“This is indistinguishable from a recession for a working family,” Mr. Mishel said. “They’re losing jobs, and they’re getting a double bite as wage growth slows down and inflation kicks up. People are losing out on both ends.”
…
“You read the headlines and you look around and you think the world is coming to an end,” said Charles W. Calomiris, a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research group in Washington. “But I don’t think so. If you’re going to tell a worst-case scenario story at this point, it’s only going to be because the Fed loses control.”
…
“The Fed isn’t the whole story, but it’s a big part of it,” said Gerald P. O’Driscoll Jr., who was vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 1982 to 1994 and is now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, a libertarian research organization in Washington. “It allowed these absolutely insane bubbles to happen. The lesson is, you can’t let these bubbles continue unabated with no policy making.”

But the economists said others were to blame, too: investors, banks and rating agencies, as well as the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, and the Clinton and Bush administrations.

“They thought it was just a great thing that the stock market kept going higher and higher,” said Dean Baker, co-director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a liberal research group in Washington. “Then, of course, Wall Street just ran wild. It was some mix of irresponsibility and downright greed. They’re all sort of on the hook, but Greenspan sits front and center.”
…
“People are way too willing to extrapolate from history,” said Jan Hatzius, chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs. “If it’s 2005, you can’t look at a 40-year run of data and say, ‘It must be a law of nature that housing prices never fall.’ ”

Don’t forget to buy your tickets for the I.O.U.S.A. Screening GTG
Thursday, August 21st at 8:00pm

AMC Clifton Commons 16
405 Route 3 East
Clifton, NJ 07014

Tickets can be purchased online, click here.

—————————-
From CNBC:

Housing Prices Could Skid Another 33%, Analyst Says

Housing prices will fall more than 30 percent before the market recovers and banks will continue their reluctance to lend until the credit crisis clears up, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney said on CNBC.

In a wide-ranging interview, Whitney said the housing deterioration will be worse than even the doom-and-gloom predictions that already have circulated regarding the market.

“There’s one obvious area where the bad news isn’t all out yet, and that’s with home prices … Home prices are going to fall much more than people expect,” she said.

“I think it’s going to be well worse than 33 percent, and here’s why: If you look at the futures market, it’s indicating a range right around between 2002-2003 levels, when home ownership rates were actually higher, but fewer people can qualify for a mortgage because you’ve got to put 20 percent down, and that’s a lot of money for people,” she continued. “Furthermore, then you’ve got to find a bank to lend to you, because, Countrywide’s not lending to you.”
…
“If you don’t need capital you can get capital. If you need capital, you’re not going to get capital,” she said.

The banking and housing industries will only recover, Whitney said, when banks start feeling comfortable enough to lend again.

From Bloomberg:

Hamptons Home Prices Fall on Wall Street Jobs, Economic Outlook

Home prices in the Hamptons, the summer haven of New York financiers and socialites, fell almost 12 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier as Wall Street firms cut jobs and the economy teetered near a recession.

Sales dropped 26 percent and the median price slid to $970,000 in the resort towns on the East End of Long Island, New York-based broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. said in a report today.

“We used to think of the Hamptons as insulated and that’s not the case,” said real estate developer Arthur Rauscher, who is trying to sell his four-bedroom custom-built East Hampton house for the second time in three years. He’s asking $1.3 million and hasn’t received any offers. “It’s not what it used to be.”

The housing slump is hitting the Hamptons as financial firms have announced more than 76,000 U.S. job cuts sparked by mortgage- related losses and writedowns. The nation’s economic expansion may slow to the weakest pace in six years in the fourth quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey, and New York Governor David Paterson has said a 20 percent drop in securities industry bonuses this year will cut state revenue by $700 million.

Homes in the Hamptons — where billionaire Ronald Perelman, director Steven Spielberg and “Sex and the City” star Sarah Jessica Parker own — took an average of 143 days to sell in the quarter, up 18 percent from a year earlier, said closely held Miller Samuel. The company appraised more than $5 billion in property in the past year. Sellers in towns including Southampton, Quogue and Amagansett got an average of 9 percent less than their final asking price.

Time for another get together. Mark your calendars, cancel your trips, and tell the inlaws to buzz off.

This Saturday, August 2nd at 5pm
Shannon Rose – http://www.theshannonrose.com/
98 Kingsland Road, Clifton NJ

————————————–
From the WSJ:

Amid Housing Slump, Glut Eases Slightly
Rising Foreclosures, Tighter Credit Still Pushing Down Prices; Economists Don’t Expect Big Boost From Congressional Package
By JAMES R. HAGERTY
July 29, 2008; Page D1

The number of homes on the market is finally falling in much of the U.S., but tight credit and a flood of foreclosures are still pushing home prices down.

Making things worse, a sputtering economy is destroying jobs. That means even more foreclosures and fewer potential home buyers.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Corp. Economy.com, says he doesn’t expect a major rebound in home sales and prices before the spring of 2010. “The recovery will vary considerably across the country, with California recovering quickly and Florida much more slowly,” Mr. Zandi says.

“We have the added weight of a recessionary economy” on what was already the weakest housing market since the 1930s, says Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick, N.J., appraisal firm. He says the market won’t recover fully until employment starts growing again and credit becomes more readily available.

The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing data in 28 major metropolitan areas showed that the supply of homes listed for sale declined from a year earlier in 19 of them. (See table on the back page.) If that trend continues, it will signal an eventual rebound. For now, though, supplies remain so ample that potential buyers generally can take their time.
…
Perhaps the biggest factor pushing down home prices is the growing glut of foreclosed homes that banks and mortgage investors must sell. In May, such homes accounted for nearly 22% of all sales nationwide, Barclays Capital estimates in a report released last week. In California, Arizona and Nevada, the share was around 40%.

There are about 721,000 foreclosed homes on the market nationwide, up from 112,000 two years ago, Barclays Capital estimates. Analysts at Barclays expect the total to rise 60% before peaking in late 2009.
…
Many potential buyers are on the sidelines because they no longer qualify for a mortgage under today’s tougher standards. “They’re having to clean their credit up” and save for a down payment, says John Wood, who owns Re/Max Partners, which operates in the Raleigh, N.C., area. “That is certainly hurting our market.”

Those who can get a loan are finding it more expensive. Rates for 30-year fixed loans that conform with the standards of Fannie and Freddie last week averaged 6.69%, up from 6.55% a month before and about even with the year-earlier level, according to surveys by HSH Associates, a financial publisher. For “jumbo” mortgages, those too large to be purchased by Fannie or Freddie, rates last week averaged 7.70%, up from 7.65% a month earlier and 7.02% a year before, HSH says.

As always, the market varies considerably from city to city and even block to block. The most attractive neighborhoods with short commutes and excellent schools are holding up well.
…
Manhattan, a market that until recently seemed immune to the housing slump, is suffering from the loss of Wall Street jobs and expected cuts in bonuses. A modest price fall in 2009 is “a distinct possibility” for Manhattan, says Jonathan Miller, chief executive officer of Miller Samuel, an appraisal firm based in New York. Jeffrey Jackson, chief economist at the appraisal firm Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson, says prices already have fallen on mediocre Manhattan apartments — such as those that have little natural light or need repairs — and are likely to fall further. “Demand is very weak right now,” he says.