All eyes on school budgets

From the Star Ledger:

Jersey City slams $1,600 school tax hike, but education group says sides ‘need to figure how to make that work’

The Fulop administration slammed the Jersey City Board of Education for its $1,600-per-average-homeowner tax hike in next year’s budget, but an education advocacy group says the city and the school board need to “figure out how to make that work.”

The BOE struggled to pass in a 5-4 vote its nearly $1 billion budget as it trimmed the school tax in the 2022-23 budget from $2,400 to $1,600 a year in additional school taxes. The increase comes one year after the district — gashed by steep cuts in state aid — raised taxes by $993 to the average homeowner last year.

City spokeswoman Kimberly Wallace-Scalcione said Interim Superintendent Norma Fernandez and the school board are “wrong” for raising school taxes once again.

Education Law Center Research Director Danielle Fairre said even with the tax increase, the school district is still $100 million below its “local fair share,” the amount the state believes local taxpayers should kick in for their school district’s budget. She said the Jersey City district should not look to the state for help.

“The pace at which Jersey City is now expected to make up for the years of underfunding their local obligation may be unfair or unrealistic,” Fairre said. “We would support other creative solutions between the city and the BOE, but the fact is that the students in JCPS deserve adequate funding and resources.

‘The city and the district need to figure out how to make that work.”

Wallace-Scalcione said the district has “bloated salaries in their central office and have not looked at any common-sense changes that have been recommended to them for years.”

“The big question for Jersey City residents is over the last few years, where Jersey City residents have put thousands more into the schools by the Board of Education raising taxes, have the schools in Jersey City showed any meaningful progress or reform for that money?” Wallace-Scalcione said. “Sadly, the answer is no.”

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 132 Comments

Uh Oh Time Yet?

From Marketwatch:

‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

The popular spring home-buying season is just ramping up. But one analyst is warning that it could be a bust.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist and founder of research consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, is predicting a dramatic fall in the pace of home sales this year. In a research note, he projected that existing-home sales will drop roughly 25% from the annual pace of 6.02 million set in February to a rate of 4.5 million by the end of summer.

“The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift in activity, which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices, starting perhaps as soon as the spring,” Shepherdson wrote in a research note distributed Sunday.

As evidence of this expected slowdown in home sales, Shepherdson pointed to mortgage demand. The most recent data on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the number of applications for loans used to purchase homes is down more than 8% compared to a year ago. Comparatively, demand for refinancing has dropped nearly 50% versus last year.

A drop in mortgage demand could predict a downturn in home sales, since most buyers rely on financing to make sure a large purchase. Issues around affordability are likely to blame for the decline. As of Thursday, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 4% for the first time since May 2019, according to Freddie Mac FMCC, +2.96%.

Per Shepherdson’s calculations, the rise in mortgage rates since September has increased the cost of a monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home by more than $400, or 27%.

“That’s a huge increase, even for households sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic—a one-time increase in savings can’t finance an increase in mortgage payments for the next 30 years—and it will push demand down a good deal further,” he wrote.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 128 Comments

Top?

From Yahoo Finance:

Sales of U.S. Previously Owned Homes Decline to a Six-Month Low

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in February by more than forecast to a six-month low as a limited supply of properties and high prices deterred potential buyers.

Contract closings decreased 7.2% in February from the prior month to an annualized 6.02 million, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Friday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 6.1 million annualized rate in February. The monthly drop was the biggest in a year.

“Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement Friday.

The slide in sales reflects a market still constrained by a lack of inventory, which in February was the second-lowest on record. Buyers are bidding up prices on the few homes available. Meantime, affordability is showing signs of worsening, especially among first-time buyers.

Builders are facing high materials costs, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and mortgage rates already at an almost three-year high will keep climbing as the Federal Reserve tightens policy. Meantime, broad-based inflation is driving up the costs of necessities like gasoline, food and rent.

The NAR data showed that the number of homes for sale rose from a month earlier — typical this time of year — but were still 15.5% lower than a year ago. At the current pace it would take 1.7 months to sell all the homes on the market, close to a record low. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as a sign of a tight market.

The median selling price rose 15% from a year earlier, to $357,300 in February.

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales last month, down from 31% a year earlier. Yun said at current rates, monthly mortgage payments are up 28% from February last year.


All four regions posted sales declines, led by sizable drops in the Northeast and Midwest

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 188 Comments

Bye bye cheap mortgages?

From the MPA:

Mortgage rates – historically low era comes to an end

The 30-year mortgage rate climbed above the 4% mark shortly after the Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years.

Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.16% for the week ending March 17, a significant jump from 3.85% a week ago. At this time last year, the benchmark rate was only 3.09%.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 4% for the first time since May of 2019,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year.”

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 30 basis points higher than a week ago, up to 3.39%. The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage jumped from 2.97% to 3.19%.

The spike in mortgage rates has already started to hamper mortgage application activity. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall mortgage apps dropped 1.2% week over week, with refinance activity declining by 3% and purchase applications edging down by 1%.

“While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season,” Khater said.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Sounds familiar

From Reuters:

First-time U.S. home buyers feeling ‘defeated’ by soaring prices, rising rates

Brianna Lombardozzi finally has her finances to a point where she might be able to buy a house. But she isn’t feeling great about her odds.

Lombardozzi, 37, used her federal stimulus checks and other savings built up during the pandemic to pay down the majority of her credit card debt – a move that helped her credit score rise by almost 100 points.

But competition is intense for homes in her price range of $175,000 to $225,000 in Central, South Carolina, and she has had four bids rejected over the past month. Now with mortgage rates rising, she doesn’t know if she’ll find an affordable property before her lease is up at the end of May.

“Right now, I feel a little defeated,” said Lombardozzi, who works in housing for a local university.

As home prices soar, housing affordability is sinking to the lowest levels since 2008 and first-time buyers – who haven’t benefited from rising home values and are also coping with rising rents – are being squeezed out.

At the end of 2021, housing affordability dropped to the lowest levels since November of 2008, with households earning the median income needing to spend nearly 33% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Housing is generally viewed as affordable when households spend no more than 30% of their income on shelter.

Affordability may be strained even further by rising mortgage rates. Some people who had been pre-approved for a mortgage may find they no longer qualify for the same maximum loan amount after mortgage rates rise, said Jennifer Beeston, a senior vice president of mortgage lending for Guaranteed Rate, a mortgage lender.

First-time buyers are already struggling to compete with all-cash offers, including from institutional investors such as private-equity funds, which are taking up a greater share of purchases and are viewed as less risky by sellers, analysts say. Cash purchases accounted for 27% of sales in January, up from 19% a year earlier, according NAR.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 284 Comments

Low tax counties see cuts to school aid

From NJ1015:

6 NJ counties may see property taxes rise due to school aid cuts

When Gov. Murphy announces a victory, you always have to look underneath for the real story. That’s because in a tax and spend administration like Murphy’s, any time you take money away from somebody in New Jersey, the taxpayers usually have to make up the difference.

That’s why you should read any headline in NJ with the words “budget cuts” with skepticism. Democrats generally don’t save us any money when they make “cuts.” They just ask us to pay the difference.

This time Gov. Murphy is touting the success of the almost $10 billion of direct education funding going to schools for the 2022–23 school year.

I’m one of those people that is thrilled anytime school budgets are cut. It’s not that I don’t like kids or that I don’t value their educations, but I think schools cost too much to run here in the state. And most of it is wasted on stuff that schools do not need. (The whole public school system is broken, but that’s a different topic about which I will rant another time)

Let’s not even discuss the fact that we pour so much into over-bloated administration, more unnecessary programs and overall district waste that we really wouldn’t need a dime more for schools if we just budgeted properly and got rid of the dead weight.

But, even assuming that you would be happy about the direct aid, and thought it was good news, you wouldn’t if you lived in one of the six counties that are getting less money this year.

Those are SussexOceanMonmouthHudsonCumberland and Hunterdon.

Let me reiterate. It’s not that these counties really need the budget increase. As I stated before, no district in New Jersey really does. If we got rid of 43 vice principals, and unnecessary administrative positions, and really streamlined the school budget, we would do very well with the thousands—if not tens of thousands—of dollars we’re already spending to educate EACH PUPIL here in the state.

But, since no one is willing to cut staff or consolidate or make any changes at ALL, really, to our public school system, those counties are going to have to make up for the money that they’re no longer getting. And guess where that money is probably going to have to come from? If you said the taxpayer, you’re probably right.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 137 Comments

Go ahead, quit.

From CNBC:

4.3 million people quit their jobs in January as the Great Resignation shows no sign of slowing down

The pandemic-era phenomenon known as the Great Resignation remained a hallmark of the labor market in early 2022, according to federal data issued Wednesday.

Nearly 4.3 million people quit their jobs in January, a slight monthly decline but still near the record level set in November, the U.S. Department of Labor said. The elevated level in early 2022 comes off a year in which almost 48 million people quit their jobs, an annual record.

“The Great Resignation is still in full swing, even if quits are moderating somewhat,” Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at career site Glassdoor, said in a tweet.

Job resignations are still up 23% above prepandemic levels, he said.

The data suggests people aren’t quitting their jobs to exit the labor market and sit on the sidelines, economists said. Instead, the high level of resignation indicates a strong job market for workers with ample opportunities, they said.

There were almost 11.3 million job openings in January, just shy of December’s record, according to the Labor Department.

The high labor demand is pushing employers to pay higher wages as they compete to attract talent, and that higher pay is luring workers away from their current jobs.

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 220 Comments

No limit to home prices?

From Reuters:

U.S. house prices to rise another 10% this year

U.S. house prices are set to climb in double digits this year even as the Federal Reserve embarks on its expected series of interest rate hikes, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who forecast a sellers’ market for another two years.

Record low interest rates and a scarcity of homes to buy, combined with unexpectedly explosive demand during the pandemic, sent the average house price up 17% last year, the strongest annual rise in at least two decades.

That has stretched affordability ever further, particularly for aspiring new homebuyers, a common theme across most developed economies as the global economy emerges from the worst of COVID-19 and central banks raise interest rates.

The Feb. 8-28 poll of 33 property analysts suggested U.S. house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight.

Prices are forecast to rise 5.0% next year and 4.1% in 2024, marginal upgrades compared with 4.0% and 3.7% in the last poll.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 171 Comments

To the moon

From Fortune:

What home prices will look like in 2023, according to Fannie Mae

Homebuyers just got more bad news: In January, 70% of homes for sale ended up in a bidding war. That’s the highest rate on record. Simply put: So far, 2022 hasn’t delivered any relief for home shoppers. 

Heading into 2022, there was a broad consensus in the real estate industry that home price growth would decelerate significantly this year. But just over two months into the new year, some of those same firms are walking back their 2022 forecasts. Zillow was forecasting that home price growth—which was up 18.8% between December 2020 and December 2021would decelerate to 11% growth this year. Then last month, Zillow revised that rate up to 17.3%.

Zillow isn’t alone: Fannie Mae just became the latest real estate firm to shift up its 2022 forecast. Last year, Fannie Mae predicted that the median existing home price would climb 7.9% this year. Now, Fannie Mae says the median existing home price in 2022 will jump from $355,000 to $384,000. That would come out to an 11.2% year-over-year price jump.

If home prices do rise another 11.2%, it would mark a deceleration from the current growth rate. However, that would hardly represent relief for home shoppers. After all, the typical raise that corporate America plans to dole out this year is only 3.9%. But Fannie Mae does still think relief will come, it just won’t happen until 2023. Next year, Fannie Mae projects home prices will rise 4.2%—with the median existing home price jumping to $395,000.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 175 Comments

Median list price hits record high

From the Star Ledger:

How much does it cost to own a home in the U.S.?

Home prices across the United States have hit an all-time high, meaning more Americans are losing their buying power and fewer Americans are able to find affordable homes.

The median price of a home in the U.S. skyrocketed to a record $392,000 in February, according to a report from Realtor.com.

Housing prices grew at an “unusually fast” pace of 12.9%, according to the report, which also forecasted this year’s homebuying season in the spring will be very competitive.

In New Jersey, there are at least 34 cities where the average home price exceeds $1 million

“February’s new record high for the median listing price places housing affordability front and center for this year’s real estate markets, especially as we gear up for the spring season,” Realtor.com chief Danielle Hale told Insider.

Market trends suggest the increase in home prices could continue through the spring, which is traditionally the hottest buying season of the year.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 189 Comments

Cheaper to live in NJ? Yeah, right.

From the Star Ledger:

Murphy unveils plan for big property tax rebates to nearly 2M N.J. households

Gov. Phil Murphy announced Thursday his administration will extend property tax relief to about 1.8 million New Jersey households by replacing the state’s Homestead Benefit program.

The tax relief initiative is part of the governor’s state budget proposal he is set to unveil during a speech at the Statehouse in Trenton on Tuesday.

Under the new program, New Jersey homeowners making up to $250,000 would be eligible to receive an average $700 rebate in the first year, and renters making up to $100,000 would be eligible for a rebate up to $250 to help offset the cost of rent increases due to property taxes.

“We want this to mean lasting relief that keeps families in their homes,” Murphy said while announcing the plans during an event at Fair Lawn’s municipal building.

The Democratic governor stressed this would apply to about 1.15 million homeowners and 600,000 renters. Rebates for homeowners would appear as a credit on property tax bills, and payments to renters would be made by check or direct deposit.

“We don’t want property taxes to force families out of great communities like this,” Murphy said of Fair Lawn, a Bergen County suburb where the average property tax bill hit $11,527 in 2021.

Murphy said his administration plans to ramp up the program over a three-year period, and the state investment would swell to $1.5 billion annually, bringing the average rebate per eligible household to $1,150 by 2025.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 100 Comments

Ukraine Day 7

Another message from Alex in Kyiv (who is a friend from the international distilling community btw):

Some news for today, the 7th day of the war.

We have our pilot heroes. One of them was nicknamed “The Ghost of Kyiv”. He was hit. But the pilot escaped, returned to the base, received a new plane and already destroyed 21 Russian planes on it!
Glory to the Hero! To all heroes!
He flies a MiG-29 Fulcrum
(After the collapse of the USSR, Soviet aircraft also remained in Ukraine, but they were heavily modernized by our engineers and scientists.)

The total combat losses of the Russians from 24.02 to 03.03 tentatively amounted to:
personnel – about 9,000 people (dead and wounded),
tanks – 217 units,
BBM – 900 units,
artillery systems – 90,
MLRS – 42,
air defense systems – 11,
aircraft – 30 units (information to be confirmed),
helicopters – 31 units (information is being specified);
automotive equipment – 374,
light speedboats – 2 units,
tanks with PPM – 60,
UAV operational-tactical level – 3,
The data is being specified. Counting is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

Circus: in Energodar, the invaders asked to be let into the city and allowed to be photographed against the background of the nuclear power plant for reports to their military leadership.

In Energodar, Zaporozhye region,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enerhodar

people did not let the invaders into the city near the nuclear power plant. Ordinary people became a wall against tanks (see photo).


The Russians turned to the station management with a request to give them the opportunity to take a photo for the report against the backdrop of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The invaders come out and try to negotiate with the leadership of the city of Energodar.
“They say that it is enough for them to enter the city at least a little, take a picture against the backdrop of the nuclear power plant and send a report to the management,” Kotin said.

Now it becomes clear why the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is talking about the captured strategic facilities and cities.

Some information for now:

1) Ukrainian troops went on the counter-offensive and liberates the cities captured by the Russians near Kiev, including the city of Makarov, Bucha (Kyiv region). Kharkov, the environs of Kharkov – the counter offensive of the Ukrainian army. the city of Gorlovka is liberated from the Russian invaders.
In addition, another Russian convoy burned down in the village of Moskovsky Bobrik, Sumy region, not far from the Poltava region.

2) Ukrainian intelligence received information that part of the Russian “grad” missile systems located on the border with Russia were deployed towards the nearest Russian villages. This is done in order to bombard their cities (Russian cities with Russian weapons) in order to create a “TV picture” that Ukraine is attacking peaceful Russian villages on the border.
I have no words…
Even the Nazis did not commit such crimes in 1941-1945!

3) I am in Kyiv now, we are already used to constant explosions in the sky … This is our air defense system (and missile defense). We asked NATO to “close the sky”! but NATO is afraid of the Russians and does not help in this matter. We need air defense systems that can intercept missiles. We have our own developments, but they are few in comparison with the number of Russian Typhoon and Iskander installations. We hold on, many missiles manage to intercept in the sky.
Kyiv is an impregnable fortress now.

4) We are fighting in such a way that the invaders were forced to change their tactics. Russian missile and bomb strikes on Ukrainian cities is an admission that Russia has not been able to do anything significant militarily. All lines of our defense have been preserved, and the enemy is not successful in any of the strategic directions. They (the Russian military) are suppressed, they are doomed.

5) Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba called on partners to close the airspace over Ukraine, otherwise the blood of Ukrainians killed by Russia will also be on their hands.
Kuleba said this on the joint air of Ukrainian TV channels “We are strong together”, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“We say very clearly and calmly to our partners in NATO that you can think as much as you like how you could avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, but if you do not help us stop it now, then a direct confrontation will be inevitable, because you will be next.” Kuleba said.

In this context, he noted that those who believe that Russia will not dare to attack NATO countries should remember that they also did not believe in the Kremlin’s plans to start a direct war with Ukraine.

“And everyone was wrong. Therefore, we need to act right now,” the head of Ukrainian diplomacy stressed.

He emphasized that the topic of closing the sky over Ukraine is extremely relevant, and there are different scenarios. For example, it is possible to close not all airspace, but part of it, it is possible not to close the sky, but to ensure the supply of combat aircraft and anti-aircraft defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“All scenarios are currently in the works. But everyone should understand, and we clearly say this to our partners: “We are grateful to you for everything you have done… But now there is a concrete threat that our citizens will continue to be killed from the air… Therefore, if you do not take radical steps to strengthen the air defense defense of Ukraine, then the blood of our dead citizens will be on your hands. Your restraint and your unwillingness to take the next steps – all this gives Russia the opportunity to continue to commit murders with impunity,” the Foreign Minister stressed.

Pray for us if you believe in God.
Help us in any way you can.

If earlier I wrote that we want to win, today I can write, and it’s true that we are winning!
We Win on the battlefield the most powerful (by number) army in the world! (Army of Russia).
We won’t give up!

Posted in General | 105 Comments

From a friend in Kyiv

God Speed Alex!

————–

Thanks for your support!

We now have air raid sirens, but we are already used to this sound 🙂

Bucha, Kyiv Oblast last night

This is a “wild horde” … like Batu Khan in 1200 in Ukrainian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batu_Khan

We won’t give up.

We are very evil… But our people have always been not only brave but also pragmatic. A little something interesting for you.

https://fb.watch/btBEP5Zi_z/
Watch this video. This is one of the captured “infantry fighting vehicles” on a tracked chassis.

There is rust inside the cab, the driver’s seat was made by someone on their own, from pieces of old wooden boards. Some kind of rag is put on the seat 🙂

This is the same “invincible Russian army” with which Putin scares the whole world … 🙂 rusty old iron (197X-198X years of release).

The main problem is that there are a lot of them. This is a “mad horde” that goes to the slaughter in Ukraine. Thank you for the Javelins.

We must grind this whole horde into mincemeat. We’ll get the job done.

so farmers burn Russian tanks:
https://fb.watch/btCjSKcbwv/

And some laughter
https://fb.watch/btCDgGPHKz/
in this video, farmers have captured an anti-aircraft missile launcher and are taking it to their hangar to hide it :)

This unit is made of aluminum, which is very expensive. Farmers disassemble Russian equipment for metal in order to earn money later on scrap metal.

https://fb.watch/btCMexT9qV/
This is a video of the “invincible air defense complex Pantsir”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system
irony of fate – it is destroyed by a missile from Bayraktar (an unmanned aircraft manufactured in Turkey).

Now I am in Kyiv. Outside the window I hear explosions.

Kyiv is now an unassailable fortress.

Every street, every house will be a grave for the Russian invaders. We will win!

Our victory will be 100%! You have no idea how we feel here! Everyone is ready to tear the occupiers with their teeth.

Last night a lot of weapons came up to us, from Poland and Estonia. Now we have a lot of javelins and stuff. We won’t give up!

Pray for us if you believe in God.

Posted in General | 171 Comments

Lowball! $68 million dollar edition

From ROINJ:

State’s highest-price house, a mansion in Alpine, finally sells (for $27.5 million) – Slideshow

Imagine buying a house for $27.5 million – the highest price paid for a house in New Jersey in years, if not decades – and feeling like you got a good deal.

If the property was the former Frick family estate – a grand 33,000-square-foot, 12-bedroom, 19-bathroom residence on 12 acres with I-can’t-believe-it-comes-with-all-these amenities – you may just have done so.

At least, that’s the impression of the undisclosed buyer, who picked up a property in Alpine that is tucked into one of the country’s wealthiest zip codes.

The sale price was below the $32.9 million it recently was asking, and far below the $68 million it was listed for when it first went on the market – in 2010. That’s right, it took more than a decade to sell an estate owned by Kamson Corporation CEO Richard Kurtz, who purchased the property for $58 million in 2006.

Posted in General | 210 Comments

Time to serve

From NJ1015:

Get back to work! NJ lawmakers call for all Motor Vehicle offices to reopen

Lawmakers are trying to force the Motor Vehicle Commission to fully reopen.

State Sen. Kristin Corrado, R-Passaic, said the reason for her proposed legislation is out of frustration on her part and on the part of her constituents.

She said there is no excuse for the government not to be open and not to be providing a full range of services two years after the COVID-19 pandemic began.

“You can go to the mall, you can go to a restaurant, you can shop at any store up and down the entire state of New Jersey, you can go to a football game, you can go to a concert, but you can’t go to Motor Vehicles in a timely fashion to get all your services done and you certainly can’t go to the Department of Labor to get your unemployment resolved,” Corrado said.

“Government serves the people. We pay their salaries. There is simply no excuse for them not to be back at work in-person full services throughout the state. As the governor likes to say, period full stop,” Corrado said.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Politics | 223 Comments