Will federal job cuts pop the bubble?

Posted on February 16, 2025 by grim

From HousingWire:

The impact of job cuts on the DC housing market

Is the Washington, D.C. housing market facing a sudden collapse ignited by DOGE’s job-cutting? A whirlwind of social media posts from dubious figures has sparked speculation that a large influx of inventory is hitting the market. Could this be a tipping point that sends the D.C. housing scene into a tailspin? Is there already a crash underway?

Let’s first examine the national inventory data. This has always been a key indicator for housing as we move toward normalcy. Although inventory levels are not yet back to average, it’s encouraging to note that we are significantly above the all-time low inventory level of 240,497, recorded in March 2022. We experienced a slight increase in inventory last week and we can anticipate the typical spring surge soon. 

  • Weekly inventory change (Feb. 7-Feb. 14): Inventory rose from 632,367 to 637,991
  • The same week last year (Feb. 9-Feb. 16): Inventory fell from 494,819 to 493,987
  • The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
  • The inventory peak for 2024 was 739,434
  • For some context, active listings for the same week in 2015 were 954,581

Now let’s look at the DC Metro housing market and see if we can see any signs of the massive inventory surge that’s trending on social media. So far, it looks like we’re not seeing it materialize. 


The inventory in the DC metro housing market isn’t much higher than the COVID-19 inventory lows. Remember to be careful when listening to people who have never tracked housing economics. When working from such a low base, inventory exploding higher will be easy to see, much like what we saw in the 2018 data, so if and when it happens, we’ll know.

Posted in Crisis, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 38 Comments

Price growth slowing, but not here

Posted on February 14, 2025 by grim

From Mansion Global:

U.S. Home Sellers Are Getting More Flexible on Price as Market Stalls

U.S. home buyers faced a less competitive market in January amid a sluggish activity, according to a Redfin report Wednesday. 

Homes took longer to sell than usual, and with the biggest average discount on their asking prices in two years. Homes in most metros sold under asking, with Florida properties selling at the largest price reductions. 

In January, listings idled on the market for an average of 56 days before going under contract—the longest in the last five years, according to Redfin. 

“The upside of a slow market is that buyers have an opportunity to negotiate on price and terms for certain homes,” the report said. “Redfin agents in some parts of the country report that it feels like a buyer’s market.”

The average home sold for 2% lower than its full asking price in January, the steepest markdown since the start of 2023, the report noted. 

Sellers who have struggled to close are “open to lowering the price,” the report wrote.

Stubbornly high mortgage rates compared to the pandemic-era lows paired with inflated home prices have slowed the U.S. housing market and last year, led to the lowest level of transactionssince the 1990s. 

But a slower market is not a surefire buyer’s market.

Charles Wheeler, a Redfin Premier agent in San Diego, said that the homes sitting on the market are often in “unpopular neighborhoods or require renovation.”

“Relatively affordable, move-in ready homes close to highly rated schools are selling quickly, often with multiple offers,” he said.
…
Only seven of the 50 most populous U.S. metros recorded average sales above asking price, led by the pricey Bay Area in California. The average home in Nassau County in New York and Newark, New Jersey, also sold above list price in January.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 168 Comments

Northeast sees strongest price growth in Q4

Posted on February 12, 2025 by grim

From MortgageOrb:

NAR: Home Price Growth Picked Up Steam Again in Q4

The national median single-family existing-home price was $410,100 as of the end of the fourth quarter, an increase of 4.8% compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

That is up significantly from the end of the third quarter when the annual gain was 3.2%.

Regionally, and year-over-year, existing-home prices in the fourth quarter were up 2.1% in the South, 10.6% in the Northeast, 8.0% in the Midwest and 4.0% in the West. 

Fourteen percent of the 226 tracked metro areas posted double-digit price gains, up from 7% in the third quarter.

”Record-high home prices and the accompanying housing wealth gains are definitely good news for property owners,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, in a statement. “However, renters who are looking to transition into homeownership face significant hurdles.”

In the past five years, from 2019 to 2024, the median home price rose by 49.9%, according to NAR’s data.

Housing affordability marginally improved in the fourth quarter. The monthly mortgage payment on a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment was $2,124, down 0.8% from the third quarter ($2,141) and down 1.7% – or $37 – from one year ago. 

Almost 11% of markets (24 of 226) experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter, down from 13% in the third quarter.

“While recognizing many workers may not have the option to relocate, those who can or are willing to move may find more affordable conditions, especially given the wide variance in home prices nationwide,” Yun says.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 380 Comments

Still not building enough homes

Posted on February 11, 2025 by grim

From Fortune:

2024 new home sales hit their highest pace in three years. Does that mean lower home prices are around the corner?

Home values have skyrocketed over recent years. The median sales price in the final quarter of 2024 was $419,200 and the average price was $510,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development—both figures a hair below all-time highs.

But one industry expert predicts we’ll see even more new construction in 2025, and that should offer price relief for those seeking to jump from renting to homeownership or looking to move. 

Noelle Tassey, CEO of the real estate platform Redy, makes the case that more new inventory will put downward pressure on prices for both new builds and existing homes as sellers strive to attract price-sensitive buyers.

There were 683,000 new homes sold in the U.S. in 2024, per Census Bureau data. That compares to 666,000 in 2023, 641,000 in 2022, 771,000 in 2021, and 822,000 in 2020. These figures fall far short of the all-time high in annual new home sales—1,283,000 homes in 2005.

“Right now, the United States is missing about 4.5 million homes,” says Tassey. “That inventory shortage has driven up the cost of homes significantly.” 

Complicating matters is where Americans are moving to. High-growth regions experiencing an influx of residents probably won’t see home prices easing as much as elsewhere.

“The South, specifically in the Sunbelt region, will likely keep seeing a significant population boom and high demand for new construction,” says Tassey. 

New home sales in the South were 411,000 in 2024, roughly flat with 2023 levels and up slightly from 2022. Redy sees supply increasing in areas like the Sunbelt, but demand is climbing faster than new homes can be built. 

“Buyers are incredibly price-sensitive right now,” says Tassey. “Between high mortgage rates and elevated inflation, buyers are very aware of how much money they’re spending.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Development | 168 Comments

Sounds about right

Posted on February 10, 2025 by grim

From Patch:

NJ Residents Struggling To Pay Rent, Mortgages, Study Says: Report

If you’re struggling to pay your rent or mortgage on time, you’re not alone. In fact, New Jersey residents are finding it harder than most to manage the cost of housing, according to a new study.

Real estate and deed website Deeds.com recently analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey to determine the average delinquency rate for each state, according to the study obtained by the Asbury Park Press. 

The study found that more than 6.6 million U.S. households are behind on mortgage payments. Meanwhile, more than 9.4 million renters are struggling to pay rent.

New Jersey came in at No. 5 for delinquencies, topped only by Mississippi, Illinois, Delaware and Wyoming, the report said. 

On average, delinquencies ranged from 11 to 12 percent, with 5.57 percent of homeowners in New Jersey late on mortgages and 17.70 percent of renters in the Garden State late on rent payments.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 86 Comments

Spring Market!

Posted on February 9, 2025 by grim

From the Record:

NJ housing inventory spiked by 53% from the end of 2024. Our January market update

As New Jersey’s real estate market picked back up in January from December’s end-of-year lull, the Garden State saw significant increases in new home listings in every single county.

Overall, New Jersey had 6,444 new home listings in January. While this is a 5.85% increase from this time last year, this is a 52.99% increase from December 2024, according to Realtor.com’s monthly market data.

Changes in home prices varied across New Jersey’s 21 counties during January, but the state’s median listing price of $535,000 was a 1.91% increase from last year and a 01.37% decrease from December 2024.

As for the number of days active listings stayed on the market, listings in New Jersey typically stayed on the market for about 58 days in January — a 2.68% increase from last year and a 4.55% increase from December 2024.

Nationwide, January marked the 15th straight month of housing inventory growth with a 24.6% increase, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. The median price of homes for sale was down 2.2% in January — with a median price of $400,500 — and homes spent abut 73 days on the market, making January the slowest month since 2020.

Thirteen of New Jersey’s 21 counties had an increase in new listings compared with January 2024, with six of them growing by more than 10%. And all 21 New Jersey counties had an increase in new listings compared with December 2024, with nearly all of these increases being by 25% or more.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 33 Comments

First Jobs Report of 2025

Posted on February 7, 2025 by grim

From CNBC:

The big January jobs report comes out Friday. Here’s what to expect

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count for January, it is projected to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but nearly in line with the three-month average.
…
The U.S. labor market likely began 2025 in solid fashion, in a bit of a step down from where it closed the previous year.

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count for January, it is projected to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but nearly in line with the past three-month average. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus for the report, which will be out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

While the takeaway could be that job creation is slowing, the broader view is that the employment picture is holding solid, and it’s not likely to be a problem for the Federal Reserve any time in the near future.

“With inflation at least for now at tolerable levels and firms very comfortable making sustained investment, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t continue to see job growth around 150,000 per month, which is the upper end of what’s needed to keep the labor market stable,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “In other words, we’re at full employment. This is a good problem to have.”

By the time the Fed concluded its final three meetings of 2024, it had cut its key borrowing rate by a full percentage point. In good part, this was because policymakers sought to support a labor market that showed signs of weakening.

However, recent indicators show that while hiring has leveled off, layoffs aren’t increasing and workers aren’t quitting, though job openings are on the decline

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

Prices Up, Inventory Down

Posted on February 4, 2025 by grim

From the Record:

Single-family home listings in NJ were down in 2024. See by how much

The number of new listings for single-family homes in New Jersey grew in 2024 compared with the prior year, but that number remained well below the levels seen in 2022.

The Garden State saw a total of 75,101 new single-family home listings in 2024 — a 4.5% increase from 2023. But this number was 14.6% lower than the 91,781 new single-family listings the state had in 2022. This suggests that elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices continue to keep homeowners from putting their properties on the market.

This is according to New Jersey Realtors — a state branch of the National Association of Realtors — which released its 2024 end-of-year report that recaps how real estate performed throughout the state.

With a total of 56,541 closed single-family home sales last year, the report said, the state had a 0.8% decrease in single-family homes sold compared with the previous year.

Home prices were on the rise last year compared with 2023, though, just as they have been for the last several years. The median sales price in New Jersey was $560,000 at the end of 2024, an 11% jump from 2023, the report said. The report said most New Jersey homes sold over asking price in 2024, at about 102.8% of what they were listed for.

Single-family homes stayed on the market for about 35 days in New Jersey last year, 5.4% less time than in 2023.

As for the townhouse-condo market, the report said there were a total of 19,760 housing units sold in 2024, or 2.3% more than in 2023. New listings increased by 8.7%, with 27,380 listings.

The prices of these housing units were 11% more in 2024 than the year before, with a median sale price of $417,000. And most of these properties sold for about 101.6% of their listing price — 0.2% more than 2023 — after staying on the market for about 34 days, according to the report.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 361 Comments

Sorry Jersey

Posted on February 3, 2025 by grim

From the Record:

NJ shut out of Zillow’s top 50 housing markets for 2025.

Nobody loves New Jersey more than the people who live here. And with its miles of beaches, sprawling green spaces, highly rated restaurants and proximity to New York City, among other things, it’s not hard to figure out why.

But it seems the Garden State — which has consistently been named among the hottest housing destinations in the nation — isn’t going to be as sought-after this year as it once was.

New Jersey has been shut out of Zillow’s list of the nation’s 50 hottest real estate markets for 2025. The report, released in January, was based on the real estate platform’s forecast for local home value growth and how quickly homes are selling in the nation’s 50 most populated metro areas. The potential for job growth in each metro area was also taken into consideration.

Although no New Jersey communities made this year’s list, there were six places in the Northeast named among the nation’s 50 hottest housing spots.

Buffalo, New York, ranked as the overall hottest housing market for 2025 in the report — the second year in a row it was ranked No. 1. Lower-than-average home prices and limited inventory, as well as a significant increase in new jobs per household, were said to signal a growing demand for housing in the area.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 137 Comments

Simmer Down

Posted on January 31, 2025 by grim

From Redfin:

The Typical Home Is Taking Nearly 2 Months to Sell. That’s The Slowest Pace in 5 Years.

Homes are selling at their slowest pace since the start of the pandemic, and fewer homes are turning over, as mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated. This is according to Redfin data as of the four weeks ending January 26:

  • The typical U.S. home listing that went under contract sat  on the market for 54 days before the seller accepted an offer, the longest span since March 2020 and a week longer than this time last year. At this time in 2022, during the pandemic-driven homebuying boom, the typical home was selling in 35 days. 
  • There were 5.2 months of supply on the market, the most since February 2019 and up from 4.9 months a year earlier. Months of supply is the length of time it would take for the existing supply of homes to be bought up at the market’s current sales pace; a longer span means homes are sitting on the market longer and signals a buyer’s market. 
  • Pending home sales were down 9.4% year over year, the biggest decline since September 2023. 

Sales are slow because it’s very expensive to buy a home, with mortgage rates sitting near 7% and home prices up 4.8% year over year. The median monthly housing payment is $2,753, just shy of April’s record high. Additionally, extreme weather–including snow and frigid cold in the Midwest, South and Northeast and wildfires in Southern California–are keeping would-be buyers at home. 

The market may pick up in the coming weeks as mortgage rates fall–at least slightly–from their early January peak, and new listings tick up. Additionally, Redfin agents expect some buyers to step off the sidelines soon as they get tired of waiting for rates and prices to come down. 

“Prospective buyers have been cautious because they’ve seen homes sitting on the market and they’ve heard interest rates and prices may drop. When the market isn’t competitive, some buyers think they should wait for costs to go down,” said Jordan Hammond, a Redfin Premier agent in Raleigh, N.C. “Now it’s pretty clear that sellers aren’t slashing asking prices and mortgage rates aren’t plummeting, so mindsets are shifting. People are starting to believe that if they want or need to move, and they can afford to, they should do it.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 197 Comments

New home sales pop!

Posted on January 29, 2025 by grim

From Reuters:

US new home sales exceed expectations; rising supply curbs house price growth

Sales of new U.S. single-family homes increased more than expected in December, further evidence that housing market activity regained some momentum at the end of 2024, though rising mortgage rates remain a constraint.

The report from the Commerce Department on Monday also showed the rebound in home sales in November was much stronger than initially estimated. It added to data this month that showed single-family housing starts and building permits increased to a 10-month high in December, while sales of previously owned houses also rose to the highest level since February.

“New home sales in December wraps up a solid year for newbuild demand in an otherwise stagnant housing market,” said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics. “We expect new home sales to continue to grind higher this year.”

New home sales rose 3.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. The sales pace for November was revised higher to a rate of 674,000 units from the previously reported 664,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 14% of U.S. home sales, would rise to a rate of 675,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, and can be volatile on a month-to-month basis. They increased 6.7% on a year-on-year basis in December.

An estimated 683,000 new homes were sold in 2024, up 2.5% compared to 2023. The median new house price increased 2.1% to $427,000 in December from a year earlier. The pace of increase in home prices is slowing amid rising inventory of new homes.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 191 Comments

Jersey City is where we’re growing?

Posted on January 25, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

One North Jersey city leads the Garden State in housing development. See where

While housing inventory across the nation has continued to fall short of meeting the growing demand, certain cities are making bigger strides at closing that gap than others. And in New Jersey, there’s one place that’s far exceeding expectations.

Jersey City is leading the Garden State in housing development with a 43% increase in housing inventory from 2005 to 2023 — at least twice as fast than the rest of the state. This Hudson County city was also named among the top spots for housing development in the nation for the same period, outpacing the national rate of 16.7%.

This is according to a recent housing trend report from StorageCafe — a self-storage listing site that is part of real estate software platform Yardi — where experts ranked 489 U.S. cities with populations of more than 55,000 people based on how their housing inventory changed from 2005 to 2023, using U.S. Census data.

Ranking 56th overall in the report, Jersey City saw housing development surpass its population from 2005 to 2023. While the city’s population increased by 18% during this time, it had a 20% increase in housing units per capita, according to the report.

With this, the report found that Jersey City had significant growth across all housing types. This included a 52% increase in single-family homes; a 95% increase in multifamily units; and a 17% increase in middle housing, which consists of duplexes, triplexes and townhomes.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 109 Comments

NJ Bakes, The World Takes

Posted on January 22, 2025 by grim

Why am I posting this? Who knows. We can still make things here in NJ. From Jersey Digs:

Former New Jersey Party City Will Become One of America’s Largest Doughnut Factories

A former Party City space just a stone’s throw from one of the country’s most prominent interstate highways is slated to become a lot sweeter as a doughnut factory will be coming to a sprawling industrial property in Rockaway.

Real estate brokerage Savills recently announced that a doughnut manufacturer is set to expand into nearly 125,000 square feet at 25 Green Point Road. The operator, simply known as Rockaway Holding Group LLC, will triple its space when it moves to the property from their 40,000-square-foot location in Lodi.

With the move, the company will become one of largest doughnut manufacturing facilities in North America. The complex will produce an estimated total of more than one million doughnuts daily for their client, who was not disclosed during the announcement.
…
The sprawling Rockaway property, which sold for $19.6 million in 2022, is situated on 13.7 acres. Formerly home to a Party City outpost, the single-story, flex building is situated directly off I-80 and not far from the Hiberia Diner.

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 220 Comments

Uh Oh

Posted on January 21, 2025 by grim

From HousingWire:

Home sales are stalled with 7% mortgages

New contracts for home purchases are coming in very low this month. We counted 10% fewer home sales for the week than the same week a year ago.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, sales were coming in at 5% to 10% more than the year prior. Those sales gains have evaporated and even reversed. Buyer activity has been dropping for several weeks and there are now fewer homes in contract than a year ago. Both the weekly new contracts and all the homes in the contract pending stage are below last year.

This housing market is on hold until mortgage rates come down. When will that be? I have no idea. We knew that mortgage rates over 7% were possible for the year, and here we are. I still expect we’ll spend most of the year under 7% for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, but until that happens, home sales are at a standstill.

There’s signal that the price buyers are paying is declining too. I’ll share some of those signals in a minute.

Sales are slow, so inventory of unsold homes is building. Condo inventory is growing faster than single family. Some markets are much slower than others. Let’s look at the Altos Research data for this week, the middle of January 2025.
…
There are now 632,000 single-family homes unsold on the market around the U.S. That’s up 1.25% from last week. It’s almost 25% more homes unsold than a year ago. As I mentioned, inventory of unsold condos is growing faster than that of single-family houses. There are 177,000 condos on the market. That’s 30% more than a year ago.

It’s not uncommon for inventory to tick up in mid-January like it did this week. The holidays are over, some of the spring listings come out, and there are not a lot of sales yet. It’s also common for inventory to dip again before the end of the month. And you can see that in each year’s pattern here. 
…
Inventory is building because of demand weakness, not because of supply growth. In fact, it seems like the high mortgage rates are holding back new listings, too. There were only 46,000 new listings for single-family homes this week with another 7,000 immediate sales.

The immediate sales are those that are listed and take offers within a few days, so they’re no longer in active inventory. There were 2% fewer sellers now than the same week a year ago but 3.6% more of those new listings unsold than a year ago. So, slightly fewer sellers, but inventory is growing faster than last year.
…
The sales growth we measured in Q4 is gone, and home price gains from 2024 are looking like they’ve mostly evaporated, too.

The median price of those homes that went into contract this week — newly pending home sales — is $375,000. That’s essentially unchanged from a year ago, up just half a percent. Normally, this time of year you’d expect sales prices to be moving up each week. You get fresh new inventory, the first spring buyers are looking, and that pushes sales prices higher in the first quarter — usually. But this year, the pricing pressure is much weaker. Demand is weak and there is no upward pressure on sales prices. In normal years, home prices rise 5% or so over the prior year. This year is starting out much weaker for home prices than normal years.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 52 Comments

Trump fix housing?

Posted on January 18, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Trump will inherit a housing market creaking under the strain of high prices and high interest rates

President-elect Donald Trump is inheriting a housing market that looks nothing like it did in his first term.

Affordability, measured by average home prices and mortgage rates, has markedly deteriorated and is coloring consumers’ attitudes toward the economy as a whole.

Buying and selling activity has slowed dramatically as homeowners stay put to avoid giving up the low-rate mortgages they got before 2022. Existing home sales in 2024 are on track to reach a nearly 30-year low.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are north of 7%, compared with 4.09% at the start of his first term. A family that puts 20% down on a $400,000 home would pay $594 more each month now compared with the start of 2017.

Even finding a home at that price is increasingly challenging. The median home in the US sells for $420,400, 35% higher than just before Trump’s first term. Then, the median home cost $310,900.

The incoming Trump administration has promised to slash mortgage rates and home prices by instituting mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and easing federal regulations around building and land use.

But economists and housing market experts say sweeping changes are hardly so simple, and some of Trump’s proposed policies, like tariffs, risk worsening inflation and housing affordability.

“I don’t see how President Trump is going to get rates down, certainly not with higher tariffs, immigrant deportation, and deficit-financed tax cuts,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “That’s all very inflationary.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 116 Comments