Trump fix housing?

Posted on January 18, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Trump will inherit a housing market creaking under the strain of high prices and high interest rates

President-elect Donald Trump is inheriting a housing market that looks nothing like it did in his first term.

Affordability, measured by average home prices and mortgage rates, has markedly deteriorated and is coloring consumers’ attitudes toward the economy as a whole.

Buying and selling activity has slowed dramatically as homeowners stay put to avoid giving up the low-rate mortgages they got before 2022. Existing home sales in 2024 are on track to reach a nearly 30-year low.

Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates are north of 7%, compared with 4.09% at the start of his first term. A family that puts 20% down on a $400,000 home would pay $594 more each month now compared with the start of 2017.

Even finding a home at that price is increasingly challenging. The median home in the US sells for $420,400, 35% higher than just before Trump’s first term. Then, the median home cost $310,900.

The incoming Trump administration has promised to slash mortgage rates and home prices by instituting mass deportations of undocumented immigrants and easing federal regulations around building and land use.

But economists and housing market experts say sweeping changes are hardly so simple, and some of Trump’s proposed policies, like tariffs, risk worsening inflation and housing affordability.

“I don’t see how President Trump is going to get rates down, certainly not with higher tariffs, immigrant deportation, and deficit-financed tax cuts,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “That’s all very inflationary.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 116 Comments

NJ Economic Predictions 2025

Posted on January 15, 2025 by grim

From Princeton Perspectives:

2025 New Jersey Economic Outlook

Real Estate – In real estate, the housing market could see moderate growth, however, housing affordability will remain a challenge. New Jersey’s municipalities are currently contemplating the impact of having to come up with a Housing Element and Fair Share Housing Plan by June 30ththis year. Using the numbers released by the state in 2024, Mercer County municipalities would be required to rehabilitate a total of 1,800 currently existing affordable units county wide, plus build 3,500 new units. Given that usually market rate housing is built to support the affordable units this could mean that thousands of new homes need to be built to meet those numbers. Certainly, housing is a big contributor to our local economy what with labor, lumber, supplies, and equipment.

Unemployment – Unemployment rates are expected to remain stable and low, although we may face shortages in certain sectors. With our states focus on clean energy there could be a boost in jobs related to renewable energy and infrastructure improvements.

State Budget – Governor Phil Murphy delivered his 2025 State of the State Address in the Assembly Chamber at the New Jersey State House January 14, 2025 (too late for this publication) and as of this posting his office released this statement:

“Over the past seven years, we have built a state that is stronger, fairer, and more prepared to face the future,” said Governor Murphy. “But our job is far from over. As we begin our final year of partnership, we remain more committed than ever to delivering economic security and opportunity to every New Jerseyan. And over the next 12 months, we are going to run through the tape in making New Jersey the best state—anywhere in America—to live, work, and raise a family.” 

There will undoubtedly be budget challenges for New Jersey in 2025 and hopefully there will be fiscal responsibility, especially with the governor’s election happening this year. The new governor must deliver stability in their public policy initiatives as much of the new spending in the budget is not sustainable, and we should be hearing some good ideas to do so from the gubernatorial candidates. We have used $2.4 billion from New Jersey’s budget surplus, not a desirable move. The increase in the corporate business tax to 11.5% has placed us in an uncompetitive position making it harder to attract new business to New Jersey. This rate is the highest in the country and hopefully this unenviable position will receive sorely needed attention in 2025.

We cross our fingers that inflation rates will stabilize in 2025 as higher interest rates can and will affect consumer spending and the housing and auto markets, thus affect our economy.

Small Business – When we think about our local mom and pops and independent businesses there is concern about the new administrations mass deportation and tariffs. Immigrants are predominately working for small businesses who are still dealing with problems that emerged over the last few years: skilled labor shortages, supply chain issues, high costs thanks to inflation, and shrinking profit margins. Prices are still high and with the promise that on day one of the administration to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, there is valid concern of retribution and increased pricing on imports from these three countries. Mexico alone supplies almost 40% of all fruits and vegetables consumed in the U.S.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 123 Comments

Go Long on Greenland?

Posted on January 14, 2025 by grim

Real estate opportunity of a lifetime? From the Hill:

1 poll finds majority of Greenland respondents support joining US

A new survey found that a majority of Greenland respondents support joining the United States.

According to a poll by Patriot Polling released Sunday, 57.3 percent of respondents approve of Greenland becoming part of the U.S. Just 37.4 percent disapproved of the potential acquisition, and 5.3 percent are undecided about the move.

President-elect Trump has in recent days floated the idea of acquiring Greenland, a Danish territory. He said owning Greenland is an “absolutely necessity.”

While the survey only polled 416 people in Greenland and is the first of its kind, it signals support for Trump’s larger international plans. 

According to 538’s poll rankings, Patriot Polling only receives a 1 star rating out of three.
…
Observers have largely brushed aside the idea that the U.S. could realistically acquire Greenland; Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stressed that Greenland is not for sale as the acquisition conversation continued to flow from the president-elect.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Development | 71 Comments

Will they get paid? Will they rebuild?

Posted on January 13, 2025 by grim

From MSN:

Their Wealth Is in Their Homes. Their Homes Are Now Ash.

Sylvia Sweeney and her husband, Bob Honeychurch, bought their three-bedroom home nestled in the foothills of the San Gabriel Valley for $780,000 in 2009. At the start of this year, it was worth more than double that—$1.6 million, by one estimate.

On Wednesday, raging wildfires swept through their Altadena neighborhood. When the couple went back later that day to see what was left of their home, all that was standing was the mailbox.

Sweeney, a 69-year old retired clergywoman, estimates that her home made up roughly 80% of the family’s overall wealth.

“It was our beautiful dream home,” she said. “It was our primary wealth.”

Towering flames powered by hurricane-force winds have destroyed or damaged more than 12,000 structures in Los Angeles County, razing some of the city’s priciest real estate on streets thick with celebrity mansions.

The fires also wiped out the homes of Californians in the middle class who bought into affluent neighborhoods decades ago, when the properties were still within reach for teachers, plumbers, and nurses. After years of rising home values, many of them have the bulk of their wealth tied up in homes that are now ash.

“It was our retirement. It was our investment. It was our equity. It was everything,” said John Kastanas, a 63-year old who works in an administrative role at the California Institute of Technology, of his historic home that burned in Altadena.

Now, those middle-class homeowners face a crushing housing crunch. Los Angeles was already experiencing an acute shortage of homes. Its real-estate prices are more than double the national level. In the wake of the fire, thousands of people desperate for temporary housing are flooding a cutthroat rental market, where bidding wars are breaking out for leases. Some are considering leaving for good.

Then there is perhaps the most daunting prospect of all for those who have lost their homes: battling with their insurance companies to rebuild.
…
For those who lost their homes, much of the value of their properties is in the land they still own, but rebuilding on it will be a long and expensive process. It’s unclear how many homeowners in these areas lack insurance or are underinsured. A number of leading insurers have stopped selling new home-insurance policies in the state. State Farm said last year it would not renew 69% of its property policies in the Pacific Palisades.

Posted in Crisis, Economics, National Real Estate | 72 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on January 10, 2025 by grim

From CNN:

What to expect from the final jobs report for 2024

In 2024, job growth continued to cool off, settling back into a familiar gait that was roughly in line with the pace of job creation in 2010-2019.

Through November, the US economy added about 180,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate bumped higher but stayed near historic lows.

Those headline measures helped lend some reassurance that the resilient and growing US economy is slowly heading toward that elusive “soft landing” of reining in inflation without cratering into a recession.

How that likely shaped up through December should become a lot clearer on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the final jobs report for 2024 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Economists expect that job growth last month was solid — but relatively tame — at 153,000 and that the unemployment rate didn’t budge from 4.2%, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

“2024 captured a very stable labor market, a labor market where supply and demand were in balance for the first time, post-pandemic,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at payroll company ADP, said Wednesday.

While steady, sturdy and solid were ongoing themes in the jobs market through this past year, 2025 has the potential to be anything but.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 80 Comments

Clifton is … hot?

Posted on January 9, 2025 by grim

From the Record:

Clifton is one of the hottest towns in New Jersey for homebuying. Here’s why

While not much farther from New York than Bergen, many Passaic communities feature more spacious neighborhoods and are known for beloved nature spots, like the Botanical Gardens of New Jersey in Ringwood. The county has busier hubs like Clifton, or areas with quieter lifestyles like Ringwood and Bloomingdale.

Clifton is a large and diverse Passaic County city, taking up five ZIP codes and housing more than 88,000 residents. Despite its size, the city is broken up into more than 10 distinct neighborhoods that each offer their own close-knit communities and varying housing styles.

Clifton’s large size lends itself to be a diverse cultural hub filled with eclectic restaurants, a variety of housing styles and an abundance of amenities, all within close proximity to New York City.

The hottest ZIP code in Clifton for 2024 is 07013, where a home sold for $599,000, according to Joel Bergen, Realtor.com‘s senior economist, who compiled a list of the top homebuying ZIP codes for each of the five North Jersey counties in 2024.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

Jersey Payday

Posted on January 8, 2025 by grim

From the APP:

NJ property values have soared since COVID. Which towns have seen the biggest increases?

The top 10 municipalities with the highest increases in average property value from 2018 to 2023 include:

  • Deal in Monmouth County increased by $2.35 million, from $2.38 million in 2018 to $4.73 million in 2023.
  • Loch Arbour in Monmouth County increased by $1.67 million, from $1.21 million in 2018 to $2.88 million in 2023.
  • Allenhurst in Monmouth County increased by $1.14 million, from $1.82 million in 2018 to $2.95 million in 2023.
  • Sea Girt in Monmouth County increased by $930,295, from $1.91 million in 2018 to $2.84 million in 2023.
  • Tavistock in Camden County increased by $920,533, from $1.72 million in 2018 to $2.64 million in 2023. The municipality is home to just three houses and a golf course.
  • Spring Lake in Monmouth County increased by $895,218, from $2.01 million in 2018 to $2.9 million in 2023.
  • Westfield in Union County increased by $630,897, from $181,931 in 2018 to $812,827 in 2023.
  • Rumson in Monmouth County increased by $539,003, from $1.39 million in 2018 to $1.93 million in 2023.
  • Interlaken in Monmouth County increased by $498,651, from $657,809 in 2018 to $1.16 million in 2023.
  • Mountainside in Union County increased by $461,884, from $163,735 in 2018 to $625,620 in 2023.
Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 54 Comments

December Market Update

Posted on January 6, 2025 by grim

A new thread for ChiFi, from the Bergen Record:

How did North Jersey’s real estate market finish off 2024? Our December market update

Real estate activity in New Jersey slowed down as 2024 came to an end, with the state seeing fewer homes hitting the market and active listings staying on the market for longer. And while many counties continued to see a rise in home prices during the month, several saw home prices decrease.

Despite this slowdown in New Jersey, though, December marked the 14th consecutive month of inventory growth, Realtor.com reported. But while there were 22% more homes actively for sale than this time last year, inventory levels were at their lowest since June due to the season’s slowing activity.

Homes for sale stayed on the market for about 70 days, which is nine more days than this time last year and eight more days than last month, according to Realtor.com. This made this December the slowest in five years, and the slowest month since January 2023.

The Federal Reserve also announced a third interest rate cut in December, lowering its target interest rate range from 4.25% to 4.5%. With these cuts, rates for 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgages remained in the 6% to the mid 7% range at the end of the month, Bankrate reported.
…
Twelve of New Jersey’s 21 counties had a decrease in new listings compared with December 2023, while all 21 counties had a decrease in new listings compared with November.

In North Jersey, Morris was the only county that had more new listings in December than this time last year. The county had 212 new listings during the month, which was a 39.47% increase when compared with the year before. 
…
When compared with December 2023, 14 New Jersey counties had active listings stay on the market for a longer period. And when compared with November 2024, active listings stayed on the market longer in every New Jersey county.

At 51 days, Essex was the only North Jersey county that saw no change in the number of days that homes stayed on the market in December compared with the year before. With this, North Jersey’s other five counties had listings stay on the market for fewer days in December than this time last year.
…
Of New Jersey’s 21 counties, 19 had an increase in median listing prices from December 2023. However, when compared with November 2024, 15 counties had a decrease in median listing prices.

Hudson was the only North Jersey county to see a decrease in median listing prices compared with this time last year. The county had a 10.53% decrease, with a median listing price of $607,500. Otherwise, all other North Jersey counties saw prices increase.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 125 Comments

Build Baby Build

Posted on January 3, 2025 by grim

From RENJ:

Judge: State can continue rollout of affordable housing law, pending outcome of legal challenge

A judge has denied a request by some two dozen towns to halt the rollout of New Jersey’s new affordable housing law, in a move that seemingly allows state officials to move ahead even as the court prepares for additional arguments in the litigation.

In a ruling issued Thursday morning, Superior Court Judge Robert Lougy rejected the towns’ application for an order that would stay the new program and the accompanying guidelines from the Department of Community Affairs, pending final judgment. The court is now scheduled to hear oral arguments on Jan. 31 on a pending motion by the state and affordable housing advocates that seeks to dismiss the municipalities’ lawsuit altogether.

At issue is the high-profile law signed by Gov. Phil Murphy in late March and the ensuing calculations by DCA, which identified a statewide deficit of more than 150,000 low- and moderate-income homes. The calculations, along with individual obligations for New Jersey’s 564 municipalities, were the focus of the lawsuit filed by the coalition in late October, with officials in Montvale leading the charge, arguing the new law imposes excessive mandates without fully considering local conditions and resources.

The framework applies to the fourth round of requirements under state Supreme Court’s landmark Mount Laurel doctrine that has guided New Jersey’s affordable housing policy for some five decades. Importantly, towns and cities have until Jan. 31 to adopt the numbers or come up with their own, while those that devise their own plan are subject to challenges from developers, affordable housing advocates and other stakeholders through the end of February.

In explaining his decision on Thursday, Lougy wrote that the municipalities that are challenging the law “fail to demonstrate a likelihood of success” based on their legal arguments, while noting that the matter “presents issues of public importance and the public interest weighs against a stay.” He also wrote in the 68-page order that the plaintiffs “fail to establish any basis to stay the Mount Laurel doctrine pending disposition of this matter.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 63 Comments

Innovation HQ to Housing – the NJ Way

Posted on January 2, 2025 by grim

From the Star Ledger, Hat Tip Juice:

Bell Labs marks 100th birthday as iconic N.J. company prepares for huge move

The sprawling Murray Hill campus on Mountain Avenue was a bustling center for innovation in suburban Union County for decades. It served as the headquarters for a 90-year-old company whose researchers helped earn 10 Nobel Prizes, five Turing Awards for computer science breakthroughs and more than 20,000 patents.

At its height, Bell Labs employed nearly 15,000 people in New Jersey, including some of the world’s top scientists and innovators. Many worked in the more than a half-dozen buildings spread throughout 240 acres at the country club-like Murray Hill headquarters on the border of Berkeley Heights and New Providence.

Bell Labs began in 1925 as the Bell Telephone Laboratories, a science and communication research arm of the Bell system with ownership evenly split between AT&T and Western Electric. It celebrates its 100th birthday on Jan. 1.

When Nokia’s research arm, Nokia Bell Labs, said in early December 2023 the company will move out of the Murray Hill campus over the next five years to relocate to a new tech hub being built in New Brunswick, the announcement spurred an outpouring of memories online from current and former employees.
…
Some of the world’s most important breakthroughs have come out of Bell Labs, including the first transistor, the laser, radio astronomy, the dawn of cellular and satellite communications and the beginnings of artificial intelligence. Bell Labs was also the birthplace of the UNIX computer operating system and the C and C++ programming languages.

At its prime, the lab produced Nobel Prize-winning discoveries and even helped the United States win World War II.

Bell Labs’ new headquarters will be located at the HELIX innovation center in New Brunswick. Originally known as “The Hub,” the HELIX innovation center will be a large complex in the city’s downtown on the site of the former Ferren Mall.

Nokia said the change in location will help Nokia Bell Labs adapt and evolve to remain at the forefront of cutting-edge technology.

It is a major change for Bell Labs, which has been a fixture in Murray Hill and has had numerous satellite locations around New Jersey.

Bell Labs’ research center in Holmdel in Monmouth County was a center for major scientific developments, including cellular technology and the Horn Antenna used to confirm the Big Bang theory.

But the company closed the location in 2006 and it was eventually purchased and redeveloped into a 2-million-square-foot “work, live, play” campus called Bell Works, which includes entertainment, dining and fitness amenities. Bell Works was dubbed the most iconic building in New Jersey in 2018 by Architectural Digest.

It is unclear what will happen to the Murray Hill site once Bell Labs leaves. The mayors of New Providence and Berkeley Heights have both said they are working with each other, as well as state and local officials, to find a new use for the property.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 25 Comments

Predictions 2025!

Posted on December 28, 2024 by grim

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Recession / Economic

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Commodities

Inflation

Mortgage Rates

Geopolitics

Whatever

Bragging rights to anyone who nailed it for 2024:

Predictions 2024!

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 111 Comments

Welcome to ’95

Posted on December 24, 2024 by grim

From the NY Post:

Home sales rise at fastest pace since March — but market set for worst year since 1995

Sales of previously occupied US homes rose in November to their fastest pace since March with home shoppers encouraged by a wider selection of properties on the market, even as mortgage rates mostly ticked higher.

Existing home sales rose 4.8% last month, from October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Sales accelerated 6.1% compared with November last year, representing the biggest year-over-year gain since June 2021.

The latest home sales topped the 4.1 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.

Home prices increased on an annual basis for the 17th consecutive month. 

The national median sales price rose 4.7% from a year earlier, to $406,100.

Despite increasing in November and October, home sales are still running below last year’s pace, when they sank to a nearly 30-year low.

“Looks like we won’t match last year in terms of the annual total, so it will be the lowest home sales since 1995,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.

The US housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. A shortage of homes for sale has helped prop up prices, which as of last month are up 50% nationally since 2019.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 37 Comments

Feeling hot hot hot

Posted on December 23, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

These were the hottest North Jersey towns for homebuyers in 2024

Bergen County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07481 – Wyckoff – $1.025 million
  2. 07450 – Ridgewood – $1.1875 million
  3. 07446 – Ramsey – $899,000
  4. 07430 – Mahwah – $699,000
  5. 07628 – Dumont – $624,000

Passaic County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07470 – Wayne – $649,900
  2. 07403 – Bloomingdale – $519,900
  3. 07508 – Haledon – $679,900
  4. 07013 – Clifton – $599,000
  5. 07456 – Ringwood – $578,000

Morris County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07885 – Wharton – $442,500
  2. 07834 – Denville – $625,000
  3. 07869 – Randolph – $690,000
  4. 07045 – Montville – $774,000
  5. 07438 – Oak Ridge – $489,000

Essex County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07003 – Bloomfield – $554,400
  2. 07009 – Cedar Grove – $749,000
  3. 07042 – Montclair – $899,000
  4. 07040 – Maplewood – $799,000
  5. 07006 – Caldwell – $827,483

Sussex County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07843 – Hopatcong – $429,000
  2. 07874 – Stanhope – $429,900
  3. 07461 – Sussex – $459,900
  4. 07860 – Newton – $449,000
  5. 07821 – Andover – $669,000

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, North Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

How to afford NJ

Posted on December 19, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Historic New Jersey mansion seized from fraudster is now listed for $33M

New Jersey’s historic Crocker Mansion in Mahwah was officially put back on the market this month after it was seized from a billionaire fraudster in 2023.

The 120-year-old estate at 675 Ramapo Valley Road is a 58-room, four-story brick palace that boasts nearly 50,000 square feet of living space on 12.5 acres along the Ramapo Mountains. It is privately listed for $33 million by Compass New Jersey agents Diane Cookson and Carl Gambino and the Fox & Stokes team.

Built between 1901 and 1907 by railway heir George Crocker, the property features 21 bedrooms, 29 bathrooms, a massive great hall and dining room, a library with gold leaf décor, marble staircases, an indoor spa and sauna, a tearoom, a billiards hall and a movie theater.
…
This listing comes after the lavish property was seized in April 2023 from its previous owner, Ho Wan Kwok — better known as Miles Guo — who was charged with masterminding an elaborate scheme in which he allegedly cheated thousands of online followers out of more than $1 billion. A 12-count indictment that was unsealed in federal court charged Guo and his financier, Kin Ming Je, or William Je, with bank fraud, money laundering, securities fraud and wire fraud.

Guo initially purchased the Crocker Mansion for $26 million in late December 2021, making it the priciest home to sell in all of New Jersey that year. The estate was just one of many pieces of property — including a 98-inch TV, a Bösendorfer grand piano and multiple high-end sports cars — as well as hundreds of millions of dollars that were seized by the federal government.

In July, a jury found him guilty on nine criminal fraud and conspiracy counts but acquitted him on three counts, according to Courthouse News Service.

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 132 Comments

Luxe Jersey

Posted on December 17, 2024 by grim

From HousingWire:

Pacaso’s top markets for luxury vacation homes are in New Jersey and Florida

Despite rising home prices and mortgage rates, second-home investors overtook a select group of vacation real estate markets. This week, online marketplace Pacaso highlighted counties in New Jersey, Florida and Massachusetts as leading markets for sales of luxury vacation homes.

Pacaso’s report revealed the top 20 counties for luxury home sales across the U.S. Counties are ranked by an index score, which was determined by the share of second-home sales to primary home sales in 2023 and 2024. The list excludes counties with less than 50 mortgage rate locks for second homes. All counties on the list have average prices above $700,000 — with further growth anticipated. 

The No. 1 market is Cape May County, New Jersey. It is followed by Gulf County, Florida; Walton County, Florida; Barnstable County, Massachusetts; and Collier County, Florida. 

“The destinations on this year’s list really capture the breadth of the luxury vacation home market,” Austin Allison, CEO and co-founder of Pacaso, said in a statement. “Legacy destinations remain as timeless as ever, Florida’s panhandle is solidifying its status as a favorite for vacationers, and Manhattan is resurging as a place where buyers are doubling down on second-home investments. 

“These aren’t just weekend getaways anymore — they’re lifestyle investments for people looking to create endless cherished memories with friends and family.”

Allison went on to note that mortgage rates are beginning to ease, purchase mortgage applications have reached their highest levels since January and growing inventory is helping to drive more transactions.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate, South Jersey Real Estate | 86 Comments