Old NJ real estate that might just smell good?

Posted on December 15, 2024 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Chemist behind Arrid deodorant left behind quirky tribute to life’s work in this N.J. home

In a room with brick floors, off the wood-paneled library inside a stately Tudor home in Princeton, is a stained glass window that pays homage to the home’s original owner.

It illustrates the laboratory process for making Arrid deodorant. The home’s original owner was John Higgins Wallace, Jr. a chemist who developed Arrid deodorant in 1935.

Wallace had the more than 5,800 square foot, five bedroom, four full and three half bathroom home built in 1931. Three owners later, it’s now listed for sale for $3,850,000.

The home was designed by renowned architect Rolf Bauhan, who helped establish the School of Architecture at Princeton University and designed about 300 homes in Princeton and New Hope, Pennsylvania.

It underwent a $2 million restoration about 20 years ago, said Mark Davies of Callaway Henderson Sotheby’s International Realty, the listing agent.

“They didn’t spoil any of the original details,” he said.

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 35 Comments

What the ‘experts’ think

Posted on December 12, 2024 by grim

From Robb Report:

Here’s How the Real Estate Market Will Fare Next Year, According to 2025 Housing Forecasts

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s time for buyers, sellers, and renters to prepare for what the housing market will have in store next year.  

If you’re planning on snapping up a second home or parting ways with your property, the real estate sector is entering a new phase. As a refresher, homeprice growth hit 4 percent in 2024, up from 1.1 percent in 2023, while average mortgage rates hovered around 6.3 percent, according to Realtor.com’s 2025 forecast. As of the third quarter, the median sale price in the United States was $420,400, a 32 percent jump from Q3 2020. Rents nationwide rose as well, coming in at $1,382 a month in November which is 20 percent higher than what they were in January 2020, The New York Times reported. 

“This past year brought us a surprising upward trend in home price growth despite the persistence of high mortgage rates and rising inventory,” Realtor.com economists wrote in the report. “Mortgage rates are expected to keep mortgage payments essentially unchanged in 2025 despite continued home price growth.” 

Per the experts, home prices are projected to soar an additional 3.7 percent within the next year after hitting an all-time high. On the upside, when it comes to supply, inventory is expected to surge 11.7 percent, making the market less competitive and giving buyers more time to negotiate. However, those who have been waiting on the sidelines may actually drive up the number of home sales in 2025. Redfin predicts approximately four million homes will be sold by the end of next year with an expected annual increase in the number of sales rising between 2 percent and 9 percent.

“Prices are going to keep rising because we’re not going to have a recession,” Ralph McLaughlin, a senior economist at Realtor.com, told Business Insider. “If you look at the times that home prices fall, it’s typically only when there’s a recession, and only when people are forced to sell.” 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 126 Comments

NJ market at risk?

Posted on December 10, 2024 by grim

From Newsweek:

House Prices Could Fall in Three ‘Vulnerable’ States

The housing market is vulnerable to decline in parts of the country with analysis suggesting that prices are more at risk of falling in three specific areas.

Real estate experts at ATTOM, a property data firm, suggested that California, New Jersey and Illinois are home to the counties with the most at-risk housing markets.

Some areas in Florida now fall into this category, according to the Quarter 3 2024 Housing Market Impact Risk Report, which was published on Friday.

The news follows a string of warnings about the state of the U.S. housing market in recent months, although the picture is very different depending on the location of the market.

Back in July, ATTOM warned that homes were becoming ever more unaffordable with Americans being forced to spend much more of their paychecks to achieve home ownership.

And house prices had hit an all-time high that same month, according to the National Association of Realtors. But, around the same time, an ATTOM study warned that some counties in California, Illinois, and New Jersey were among the most vulnerable housing markets in the country, with owners there more likely to see the value of their homes slide during a downturn.
…
ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said the analysis showed how the U.S. market is exposed to “varying pockets of vulnerability”.

He added: “As with past reports, this one is not meant to suggest any given area is about to fall or is immune from problems. Rather, it spotlights locations that look to be more or less able to withstand significant changes in market conditions. We will continue to keep a close watch on markets throughout the country to see how things track.”

The counties with the housing markets most at risk of decline, according to ATTOM, included Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois, while the counties of Essex, Passaic and Sussex featured in New Jersey. A further 13 most at-risk counties were in California: Butte, Contra Costa, El Dorado, Humboldt, Solano, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 93 Comments

5 predictions for 2025

Posted on December 9, 2024 by grim

From CNBC:

What to watch for in 2025 housing market predictions 

Housing is not cheap — whether you’re buying or renting. 

In October, the median sales price for a single-family home in the U.S. was $437,300, up from $426,800 a month prior, according to the latest data by the U.S. Census. 

Meanwhile, the median rent price in the U.S. was $1,619 in October, roughly flat or up 0.2% from a year ago and down 0.6% from a month prior, according to Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

While it can be difficult to exactly pinpoint how the housing market is going to play out in 2025, several economists lay out predictions of what’s likely to happen next year in a new report by Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm.

“If the housing market were going to crash, it would have already crashed by now,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “The housing market has been so resilient to interest rates going up as high as they have.”

Here are five housing market predictions for 2025, according to Fairweather and other economists. 
…
The median asking price for a home in the U.S. will likely rise 4% over the course of 2025, a pace similar to that of the second half of this year, according to Redfin.

The 4% annual pace is a “normalization” compared to the accelerated growth last seen in 2020, said Fairweather. 
…
At a national level, the median asking rent price in the U.S. will likely stay flat over the course of a year in 2025, as new rental inventory becomes available, according to Redfin.
…
Redfin forecasts mortgage rates will average 6.8% in 2025, and hover around the low-6% range if the economy continues to slow.

Yet experts expect 2025 will be a “bumpy” and “volatile” year for mortgage rates.
…
Pent-up demand from buyers and sellers on the sidelines may drive home transactions next year. 

“People have waited long enough,” Fairweather said. 
…
The risk of extreme weather and natural disasters may anchor down home prices or slow down price growth in areas like coastal Florida, California and parts of Texas, which are at high risk of hurricanes, wildfires or other disasters, Redfin expects.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 60 Comments

Forecast down?

Posted on December 6, 2024 by grim

From Seeking Alpha:

US home prices expected to fall further than previously forecast, Fannie Mae says


U.S. home prices are expected to slow further than previously forecast next year and in 2026, according to Fannie Mae’s (OTCQB:FNMA) latest Home Prices Expectations survey released Thursday. 

According to the survey of 100 housing experts in the industry and academia for the current Q4, average home prices are expected to slow by 3.8% in 2025 and 3.6% in the following year.  That’s up from the Q3 survey that showed deceleration of 3.1% and 3.3%, respectively. 

The panelists, on average, expect existing home sales to stay “sluggish” for another year while new home sales will “trend slightly upward,” Fannie Mae said. Mortgage rates are expected to remain “elevated by but modestly decline” over the year to 6.3%, it added.

The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.85% in the week ended November 29, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. 

Fanne Mae said Thursday around 80% of respondents expect home prices to decelerate due to ongoing high mortgage interest rates, rising housing inventory, and slowing wage growth. 

“While home price growth is expected to ease next year, HPES panelists’ big-picture view for 2025 appears to be little changed compared to 2024, with most seeing another year of elevated mortgage rates and weak home sales,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Mark Palim. “We share our panelists’ view that home price growth is likely to decelerate next year, as the mix of continued elevated mortgage rates and the run-up in home prices of the past four years will likely continue to strain affordability and remain an impediment to many would-be homebuyers.”

Meanwhile, Fannie Mae said, the minority of respondents who are expecting home prices to appreciate to accelerate cited strong pent-up demand by first-time homebuyers, tightening inventory, and declining interest rates. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 71 Comments

NJ takes top spot in price growth

Posted on December 5, 2024 by grim

From CoreLogic:

US Home Price Insights –  December 2024

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in October 2024 compared with October 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.02% in October 2024 compared with September 2024 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results). 

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will drop by -0.03% from October 2024 to November 2024 and increase by 2.4% on a year-over-year basis from October 2024 to October 2025. 

U.S. home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country. The Northeast has proved particularly resilient to current economic conditions despite slower job growth, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability concerns.  

New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire claimed three out of the top five spots for year-over-year price gains, rising 8.1%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. Rhode Island and New Jersey prices reached new highs in October.  

Meanwhile Washington D.C., Idaho, and Montana top the list this month for the states that are furthest from their price peaks. Each location was down from its former high point by -3.5%, -2.5%, -2.1%, respectively. However, on a year-over-year basis, Washington D.C. prices are still up 4.7%. 

Despite the price declines seen in certain areas of the country, overall national price growth is expected to continue at a muted pace. Still, forecasts suggest that national single-family home prices will reach a new peak level in April 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $385,000.  

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 65 Comments

Welcome to prediction season!

Posted on December 4, 2024 by grim

From Business Insider:

4 predictions for the US housing market in 2025, according to Zillow

Here are four predictions Zillow has for next year’s market.

1. Rising home sales

Olsen said the housing market was slowly becoming “unstuck,” a trend that should continue as home prices rise at a “modest” pace.

The firm predicts that home prices will rise by 2.6% in 2025, while existing-home sales will notch 4.3 million, up from the 4 million sales it expects this year.

“While affordability challenges will remain, buyers should expect more homes on the market, meaning more time to consider their options and more leverage in negotiations,” Olsen said.

2. Choppy mortgage rates

Zillow predicted that mortgage rates would bounce throughout next year.

The firm pointed to recent changes in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which fell this year before climbing to nearly 7% as markets adjusted their expectations for borrowing costs amid sticky inflation and a robust economy.

“More swings like this are expected in 2025, with refinancing sprints occurring during the dips,” Olsen said.

3. A buyer’s market in the Southwest

Zillow’s data indicates most “buyer’s markets” in the US are in the Southeast. But it said buyers could find more opportunities in the Southwest next year as more inventory in the region becomes “unstuck” and attracts homebuyers.

“These buyer’s markets should have the greatest number of movers, while sellers will feel the heat of competition as buyers will have more homes to choose from,” Olsen said.

But Olsen added that falling mortgage rates could prevent buyers from moving west, as lower borrowing costs stimulate demand and give sellers the upper hand.

4. Smaller homes

Zillow predicted that small homes would continue to rise in popularity. The firm said the word “cozy” appeared in 35% more Zillow listings this year than last year, a sign that buyers could be more interested in downsizing to smaller and more affordable abodes.

“Home values of small condos are finally stabilizing after remote work left downtowns more empty, even while home value appreciation of larger properties — though much stronger — continues to soften,” Olsen said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 70 Comments

Ambassador Kushner

Posted on December 3, 2024 by grim

From NJ1015:

Trump wants pardoned NJ real estate developer for US ambassador

President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday he intends to nominate real estate developer Charles Kushner, father of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, to serve as ambassador to France.

Trump made the announcement in a Truth Social post, calling Charles Kushner “a tremendous business leader, philanthropist, & dealmaker.”

Kushner is the founder of Kushner Companies, a real estate firm based in Florham Park. Jared Kushner is a former White House senior adviser to Trump who is married to Trump’s eldest daughter, Ivanka.

The elder Kushner was pardoned by Trump in December 2020 after pleading guilty years earlier to tax evasion and making illegal campaign donations.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 99 Comments

What’s it really cost to live here

Posted on November 29, 2024 by grim

From NJ Digest:

NJ Residents Pay More in Taxes Than Anywhere in Nation, New Study Finds

 New Jersey residents will pay more in taxes over their lifetimes than those in any other state, according to a recent study by Self Financial.

The analysis, titled A Life of Tax, estimates the average American will pay $524,625 in taxes over a lifetime, accounting for just over one-third of total earnings. However,  New Jersey’s tax burden far surpasses that figure, with residents paying an average of $987,117 throughout their lives — the highest in the nation.

The study determined that this tax burden amounts to 54.3% of lifetime earnings, also the largest percentage among all states.

Here’s how New Jersey’s taxes break down:

  • Property tax: $564,614 (highest in the nation)
  • Income tax: $334,260 (6th highest in the nation)
  • Personal spending tax: $54,961 (19th highest)
  • Car tax: $33,282 (26th highest)

The report included property, income, sales, and vehicle taxes for all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

Other locations with high lifetime tax burdens include Washington, D.C. ($884,820), Connecticut ($855,307), Massachusetts ($816,700), and New York ($748,199).

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 76 Comments

Prices slowing?

Posted on November 27, 2024 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Home-price growth has ‘stalled,’ Case-Shiller says 

Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas lost more steam in September, buckling under the pressure of high mortgage rates and historic unaffordability.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house-price index rose 0.2% in September, compared with the previous month. 

Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metropolitan markets were up 4.6% in the 12 months ending in September. 

That’s a deceleration compared with an increase of 5.2% the previous month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal expected the 20-city index to increase by 4.8%.

A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose 0.3% in September and was up 3.9% over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted. 

Home prices posted the slowest gain since September 2023. 

Even though prices are growing less rapidly, the 20-city and national indexes still inched to new record highs in September.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 74 Comments

Rethinking outdated public notice requirements

Posted on November 25, 2024 by grim

From the Real Deal:

As print publications dwindle, real estate struggles to meet public notice requirements 

New Jersey’s largest newspaper, the Star-Ledger, announced last month it would cease print editions beginning early next year. It marks a loss not just for Jersey residents who prefer a hard copy of their paper, but for real estate developers who need it for legal reasons.

Real estate developers are required to publish notices of the planning and zoning process for projects in many states and municipalities across the country, an increasingly difficult mandate to meet as daily print publications close shop, ROI NJ reported. 

Land use and zoning attorney Kathryn Razin said there will need to be changes to where developers and municipalities are required to publish public notices in the years to come, and further print shutdowns will put pressure on these legal requirements. 

“For now, you have to be diligent to make sure that when that publication you’re providing a notice is still going to be in print,” she told the outlet. “You also have to double check that the municipality hasn’t designated a new ‘official newspaper.’”

The faltering availability of print publications for these purposes may also precipitate discussion of whether these public notice mandates are outdated or need amending, she said. 

“I think this has raised discussions on that statutory requirement, and whether we should be allowing a newspaper’s website to satisfy these requirements in lieu of a print publication,” she told the outlet. “From an applicant’s standpoint, this has been a long-standing requirement and could be seen as antiquated and in need of an update, alongside other statutory requirements.”

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 86 Comments

October sales … UP!

Posted on November 22, 2024 by grim

From CNBC:

Home sales surged in October, just before mortgage rates jumped

A sharp drop in mortgage rates brought homebuyers off the fence in October after a slow summer.

Sales of previously owned homes last month rose 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.96 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 2.9% higher than October of last year, marking the first annual increase in more than three years.

This count is based on signed contracts, meaning most of the deals were made in August and September. During that time, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was falling. It started August around 6.6% and dropped to a low of 6.11% by mid-September, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“The worst of the downturn in home sales could be over, with increasing inventory leading to more transactions,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release. “Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand. However, for most first-time homebuyers, mortgage financing is critically important. While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”

There were 1.37 million units for sale at the end of October, an increase of 19.1% from October 2023. That puts inventory at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace. It is still on the leaner side, as a six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.

Tight supply continues to put upward pressure on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in October was $407,200, an increase of 4% from the year before. By price category, the higher end of the market is seeing more activity than the lower end.

“We still need another 30% in inventory just to get us back to the pre-Covid conditions,” Yun said.

The share of all-cash buyers pulled back to 27%, down from 29% in October 2023. That is still high historically, but lower mortgage rates likely caused that share to drop.

First-time buyers made up 27% of sales, down from 28% the year before and still historically low. They usually make up 40% of sales.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 128 Comments

Live like Paul Volker

Posted on November 21, 2024 by grim

From the Record:

North Jersey home of President Obama’s economic recovery board chair listed for $3.5M

Nestled along Park Street, just a few hundred feet from Montclair’s Applegate Farm stands the Tinkham-Volcker house.

Listed for sale in early November for $3.5 million by Saritte Harel of Keller Williams Realty, the six-bedroom, six-bathroom Colonial Revival at 509 Park Street is a reflection of both the town’s agricultural past and its transition into a bustling modern suburb.

Though the roughly 125-year-old home underwent some alterations in the 1940s, much of its original charm remains. From the classic stone wall along Park Street to the detached terra cotta garage built in 1914, the property has clear historical roots. However, it is also a showcase for clean modern luxury.

A recent renovation aided by Adriana Smyth Interiors has transformed the 9,000-square-foot home. There is a chef’s kitchen with premium appliances, including a La Cornue gas range, quartz countertops and a seamless connection to the formal dining room that offers picturesque views of the property’s grounds. 

The Tinkham-Volcker house gets the second half of its name from its most famous resident, Paul Volcker. The cigar smoking chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Board from 1979 to 1987, Volcker also served as chair of President Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board from 2009 to 2011.

Deeply rooted in New Jersey, he was born in Cape May in 1927, raised in Teaneck and educated at Princeton University. He spent a quarter century in domestic and international finance before serving two terms as chairman of “the Fed” under Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Volcker, who owned 509 Park in the 1980s, was known for his commitment to monetary restraint and inflation limiting strategies. He was also known for backing financial regulation and helping to inform the “Volcker Rule,” a feature of the Dodd-Frank Act that limits banks involvement with short-term trading, hedge funds and private equity funds.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, North Jersey Real Estate | 99 Comments

Greedy boomers living too long

Posted on November 19, 2024 by grim

From Fortune:

The ‘Oracle of Wall Street’ says home prices need to fall 20% to end the ‘generational schism’

Baby boomers own more homes than millennials and Gen Zers, creating a “generational schism” in the world of housing, according to Meredith Whitney, the “Oracle of Wall Street,” who predicted the Great Financial Crisis.

Boomers aren’t selling, and that’s a problem. “They’re not selling because they’re aging in place, because they can’t afford to go anywhere else,” Whitney said last week in an interview with CNBC. “Until they sell, you’re going to have this real standoff between sellers and buyers.”

So what’ll it take? Well, home prices have to fall; Whitney said prices need to drop about 20%. But that price decline would only take us to the price levels of three or four years ago before the pandemic and its corresponding housing boom. Plus, people would still have a lot of equity in their homes, Whitney explained, so it wouldn’t be a housing crash.

At this point, it doesn’t make sense for a lot of people to sell their homes because they have either locked in a low mortgage rate or own their home outright. To give that up would likely mean a much higher mortgage rate, and a much more expensive home. Considering an unwillingness to sell from older generations, that leaves fewer homes for younger generations to buy; those that are for sale are, in some cases, unaffordable because prices continue to rise since supply is tight—and mortgage rates are higher than what people are used to.

In some cases, people list their homes at exorbitant prices and sell if they get an offer, or stay if it doesn’t meet their expectation, Whitney said. Sales are depressed, particularly at the middle and lower tiers of the market, whereas luxury is sort of carried by all-cash offers, she added. “Something has got to give in the regular market,” Whitney said. “I think you’re going to start to see home prices go down.”

“For homes to be affordable, that’s going to have to happen,” she added. Whitney said she wrote a letter to whoever won the presidential election, telling them they have to let home prices drop, and it wouldn’t be the end of the world, for one, because “demand may be overstated.” (She didn’t provide any other details on the letter.)

In an interview with Fortune earlier this year, Whitney said she sees home prices falling 30% partly because young, single men are living at home, playing video games.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Humor, National Real Estate | 170 Comments

Home Insurance Spiking Across US

Posted on November 17, 2024 by grim

From Fast Company:

The housing market’s home insurance shock, as told by an interactive map

Over the past few years, many housing markets have experienced a home insurance shock. Part of this is due to insurance models reassessing disaster risks, while much of it stems from rising housing and construction costs. Replacement and repair costs have soared, and insurers are trying to keep pace, though some state insurance commissions are slowing the process.

To better understand what has happened to home insurance across the country, ResiClub reached out to economists Benjamin Keys, a professor of real estate economics at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and Philip Mulder, a professor of insurance at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. This summer, they published a paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), conducting their analysis using raw data from CoreLogic.

They found that the three-year shift in the median annual U.S. home insurance premium from 2020 to 2023 was 33%. That’s a bit above the three-year shift in U.S. home prices from December 2020 to December 2023 (28%).

“We find that premiums have risen sharply since 2020, that this growth has been concentrated in disaster-prone ZIP codes, and that elevated reinsurance costs are a critical driver of the increase,” wrote Keys and Mulder in their NBER paper.

Among the 500 largest U.S. counties, these 15 counties saw the biggest three-year increase in median home insurance premiums from 2020 to 2023. Nine of them are in Florida:

  1. Prince William County, Virginia: 150.2% 
  2. St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana: 117.8%
  3. Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana: 90.8% 
  4. Weber County, Utah: 86.4% 
  5. Flagler County, Florida: 79.7% 
  6. Martin County, Florida: 77.9%
  7. Santa Rosa County, Florida: 76.7%
  8. Escambia County, Florida: 74.2%
  9. Lee County, Florida: 72.2% 
  10. Utah County, Utah: 71.6%
  11. Marion County, Florida: 70.9% 
  12. Okaloosa County, Florida: 70.1%
  13. Guilford County, North Carolina: 70.1%
  14. St. Lucie County, Florida: 65.7%
  15. Manatee County, Florida: 64.7%
Posted in National Real Estate | 68 Comments