Expensive, no end in sight

Posted on June 25, 2024 by grim

From the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard:

THE STATE OF THE NATION’S HOUSING 2024

Both homeowners and renters are struggling with high housing costs. On the for-sale side, millions of potential homebuyers have been priced out of the market by elevated home prices and interest rates. Homeowner cost burdens are also on the rise, driven by growing taxes and insurance costs. For renters, the number with cost burdens has hit an all-time high as rents have escalated. While single-family construction is accelerating and a surge of new multifamily rental units is slowing rent growth, any gains in affordability are likely to be limited by robust household growth, ongoing development constraints, and high construction costs. All stakeholders must work together to address the affordability crisis and many related urgent housing challenges, including the inadequate housing safety net, the record number of people experiencing homelessness, and the growing threat of climate change.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 22 Comments

Cracks in the market?

Posted on June 24, 2024 by grim

From ATTOM:

New Jersey And Illinois Have Highest Concentrations Of Housing Markets At Risk Of Declines

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released a Special Housing Impact Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, foreclosures and other measures in the second quarter of 2023. The report shows that New Jersey and Illinois have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas. The South, along with other parts of the Northeast, are generally less exposed to market woes.

The second-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey and Illinois had 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. Those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country amid a time of significant uncertainty when the U.S. housing market was rebounding from a period of flat or falling values.

The 50 counties at the top of the most vulnerable list included eight in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metropolitan area and three in or near Philadelphia. Another six were scattered through northern, central and southern California. A majority of the rest were in Indiana and along the East Coast.
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Seventeen of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the second quarter of 2023 to housing market troubles (from among 574 counties with enough data to analyze) were in the metropolitan areas around Chicago, IL; New York, NY, and Philadelphia, PA.

The 50 most at-risk counties included two in New York City (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island), six in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey) and six in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook, De Kalb, Kane, Kendall, and Will counties in Illinois, and Porter County in Indiana). The three in the Philadelphia, PA, metro area that were among the top 50 in the second quarter were Philadelphia County, PA, Gloucester County, NJ, and Camden County, NJ.
…
The highest foreclosure rates in the top 50 counties were in Sussex County, NJ (outside New York City) (one in 421 residential properties facing possible foreclosure); Cumberland County (Vineland), NJ, (one in 439); Warren County, NJ (outside Allentown, PA (one in 468); Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), OH (one in 480) and Camden County, NJ (one in 483).

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 33 Comments

Record high, once again.

Posted on June 22, 2024 by grim

From CNBC:

Home prices hit record high in May as sales stall

Sales of previously owned homes are sitting at a 30-year low and didn’t move much in May as prices hit a new record and mortgage rates remain high.

So-called existing home sales in May were essentially flat, down 0.7% from April to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4.11 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors, or NAR. Sales fell 2.8% from May of last year.

This count of closed sales is based on contracts likely signed in March and April. The sluggish sales pace came as rates took a big leap in April.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan started the month just below 7% and then rose to just over 7.5% by mid-April, before settling back slightly in May, according to Mortgage News Daily. That rate is now right around 7%.

“Home sales refuse to recover,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR. “I thought we would see a recovery this spring. We are not seeing it.”

Sales were unchanged month to month in all regions except the South, where they fell 1.6%.

The biggest change in May is that the inventory of homes for sale jumped, up 6.7% month to month and 18.5% higher than in May last year. At the current sales pace, there is now a 3.7-month supply. While inventory is gaining, it is still very low given demographics and demand.
…
That demand continues to push prices higher. The median price of an existing home sold in May was $419,300, a record-high price in the Realtors’ recording and up 5.8% year over year. The gain was the strongest since October 2022. Prices gained in all regions.

The Realtors noted in a release that the mortgage payment for a typical home today is more than double what it was five years ago. Not only have rates climbed, but home prices are more than 50% higher than they were five years ago. That comes in part because the median is skewing to the higher end.

Sales of homes priced below $250,000 were lower than a year ago, while sales priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were up just 1%. Sales priced between $750,000 and $1 million were 13% higher, and sales priced over $1 million were up nearly 23%.

Cash is still king, accounting for 28% of sales. First-time buyers are hanging in at 31% of sales, up from 28% the year before.

Two-thirds of homes went under contract in less than a month, so competition is still strong despite higher prices. Redfin, a real estate brokerage, is reporting that an increasing number of listings are becoming stale, so if a home comes on the market that is well-priced and doesn’t need much work, it goes fast. Other homes are sitting longer.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 17 Comments

Jobs strong in NJ

Posted on June 21, 2024 by grim

From the NJBIA:

NJ Gains Jobs in May, Unemployment Dips to 4.6% 

The state’s unemployment rate declined by one-tenth of a percentage point for the second consecutive month to 4.6% in May, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Thursday by state labor officials. 

Total nonfarm employment in New Jerey rose by 16,500 jobs to reach a seasonally adjusted level of 4,393,700. The strong rebound in May followed the revised loss of 8,100 jobs in April, state officials said. The revision did not affect the statewide unemployment rate for April, which remained unchanged at 4.7%. 

In May, seven out of nine private industries recorded month-over-month gains. These sectors include leisure and hospitality (+7,200); education and health services (+2,900); trade, transportation, and utilities (+2,700); other services (+900); manufacturing (+600); professional and business services (+500); and financial activities (+500).  

Public sector jobs increased by 1,800 for May. 

Private sector job losses in May include construction (-400) and information (-200). 

Over the past 12 months, New Jersey has added 80,200 nonfarm jobs. About 86% of those gains were in the private sector, with six out of nine private sector industries recording a gain between May 2023 and May 2024. 

These year-over-year job gains occurred in private education and health services (+40,000); trade, transportation, and utilities (+10,500); leisure and hospitality (+9,600); other services (+5,400); professional and business services (+3,900); and construction (+3,700).   

Losses were recorded year-over-year in information (-2,900), and manufacturing (-1,300), while financial activities recorded no change. The public sector has recorded a gain of 11,200 jobs over the past 12 months. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 61 Comments

Anyone can get a $50m loan

Posted on June 19, 2024 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

N.J. real estate investor admits role in $54.7M mortgage fraud scheme

A New Jersey real estate investor admitted Monday that he was involved in a massive, far-reaching $54.7 million mortgage fraud scheme, federal prosecutors said.

Aron Puretz, 53, pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud affecting a financial institution, according to a release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office District of New Jersey.

Between 2016 and 2022, Puretz and others not identified by officials, tricked lenders into issuing multifamily and commercial mortgage loans by providing them with phony documents. The faked papers included purchase contracts with inflated purchase prices, fake financial statements, and other fraudulent documents, the office said.

Puretz was an employee of Apex Equity Group, a Newark-based real estate investment and advisory firm, as well as being one of the owners of Maple Lawn in Eureka, Illinois, and Big Country Chateau in Little Rock, Arkansas, both multifamily properties, and Troy Technology Park in Troy, Michigan, a commercial property, authorities said.
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In February 2017, Maple Lawn was acquired for $4.1 million, but Puretz and his conspirators from Apex Equity Group utilized the identity of a unidentified conspirator to present a lender and Freddie Mac with a purchase and sale contract for $5.8 million and other fake documents, officials said.
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Part of the conspiracy was to create a nonprofit entity, JPC Charities, for the purpose of receiving tax-exempt status for the properties owned by Puretz and co-conspirators, the office said. Puretz and his conspirators provided false statements to the city of Eureka, Illinois, to receive a property tax exception.

In July 2019, Purtez and others acquired Big Country Chateau, however Puretz knew the lender and Freddie Mac would not approve him as an owner, and used the identity of an unnamed associate instead of his own, federal prosecutors said. Puretz hid his ownership and involvement with the property management company from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and other federal and state agencies.

The next year, in September, Troy Technology Park was acquired for $42.7 million and Puretz and his co-conspirators presented the lender with a fraudulent purchase and sale contract for $70 million, authorities said.

To support the inflated purchase price, they submitted to the lender and appraiser a fraudulent letter of intent to purchase the property from another party for $68 million and other fraudulent documents, officials said. To conceal the fraudulent nature of the transaction, Puretz and his conspirators arranged for a short-term $30 million loan, which was used to make it appear that they had the funds needed to close on the loan.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 104 Comments

Just another day in NJ politics

Posted on June 18, 2024 by grim

Hat Tip Gator. From NJ101.5:

NJ Democratic boss stares down officials at corruption-case news conference

Like a boss, Democratic power broker George Norcross sat defiantly in the front row on Monday as the state Attorney General’s Office outlined a blockbuster corruption case.

Attorney General Matthew Platkin and his team said the charges were rooted in a years-long investigation involving a criminal enterprise run by the 68-year-old Norcross and at least five associates.

One of his brothers, 61-year-old Philip Norcross, of Philadelphia, and former Camden Mayor Dana Redd, now living in Sicklerville, are defendants facing counts that include first-degree racketeering, retaliation, concealing, intimidation and threatening.

The indictment says that the “Norcross enterprise” illegally sought and secured property rights along the Camden waterfront to collect hundreds of millions of dollars in state-backed tax credits.

Media coordinators for the OAG tried unsuccessfully to get George Norcross and his attorney, Michael Critchley, to move from the front row of chairs at Monday’s news conference.

Critchley then took issue with the team’s advance instruction that questions would only be fielded from members of the press.

“Turns out that powerful people don’t like being held accountable,” Platkin said at one point from the podium while outlining the case, directly in front of George Norcross.

George Norcross, for decades one of the most powerful unelected people in New Jersey government and politics, is presently a resident of Palm Beach, Florida, according to Platkin’s team.
…
Beyond racketeering, the defendants were also charged with counts of financial facilitation, misconduct by a corporate official, official misconduct and conspiring to commit theft by extortion, criminal coercion, financial facilitation, misconduct by a corporate official and official misconduct.

Just days earlier, criminal charges were filed against two other Norcross associates who also serve as South Jersey Transportation Commissioners.

Both men, from Sewell, were accused Friday of blocking payments to an engineering firm whose executive refused to go along with a political request from Norcross, Politico reported.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 92 Comments

What’s it take to get banned by Freddie and Fannie?

Posted on June 16, 2024 by grim

From the Real Deal:

Meridian makes cuts to New Jersey office 

Meridian Capital Group has let go of brokers in its New Jersey office as the brokerage goes through a leadership shakeup and a blacklist from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The commercial brokerage laid off a number of brokers, but the company still plans to keep some of their top producers, according to a source. Meridian’s website still lists an office in Iselin, New Jersey. Meridian declined to confirm the exact number of layoffs.

“Meridian is transforming into a leaner and more efficient company that will continue to lead the CRE and multifamily brokerage space,” the company said in a statement. 

The firm is seeking to revamp its executive team after Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae halted business with the firm amid allegations that some brokers falsified financials to secure larger loans than they otherwise would have obtained. 
…
Meridian rose to be one of the largest brokerages for mid-size landlords in New York City. A large portion of its business came financing deals with Fannie and Freddie. In the first quarter of this year, Herzka told an audience at a real estate conference in New Jersey that Meridian closed $4 billion of new business with 99 lenders.

After news broke about Meridian’s blacklist, the company hired Brian Brooks, the former acting comptroller of the currency and worked for Fannie Mae. Brooks said he is considering measures to ensure financials sent to lenders are accurate, according to the Wall Street Journal. He is also considering mandating board approval for larger deals.

“We want our brokers to be scrappy and hungry, but we will be checking,” Brooks told the Journal. “We will cut brokers who cut corners.”

Posted in Mortgages, NYC, Risky Lending | 26 Comments

Covid claims another

Posted on June 15, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Coach USA bus company files for bankruptcy. How will it impact NJ riders?

Paramus-based Coach USA — one of the largest private bus companies in the country — filed to begin Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings this week.

Dan Rodriguez, vice president of public affairs for Coach USA, said the company has struggled to regain ridership since the COVID-19 pandemic, not unlike the fiscal challenges being experienced around the country by for-profit transportation companies and subsidized agencies, including NJ Transit, which is expected to have a nearly $1 billion deficit in 2026.

“For the last several months, we’ve been carefully evaluating a broadband of strategic options and what we wanted to ensure was what would best support our communities, our customers and our employees who depend on us,” Rodriguez told NorthJersey.com.

“Our number one priority continues to be to provide our customers with uninterrupted safe and affordable transportation here in New Jersey and beyond,” Rodriguez said.

Coach USA has roots in the bus industry that are over 100 years old. Today, it has 25 business segments, employs about 2,700 people and operates about 2,070 buses across the U.S. and Canada for its charter, airport shuttles and scheduled route services, including 30 private scheduled service routes in New Jersey and 35 routes in contract with NJ Transit.

Among its most known brand names is the affordable intercity bus-booking brand, Megabus.

In 2023, Coach’s total ridership was only 45% of what it was before the pandemic, according to court documents. This is well below that of the region’s transit agencies, including NJ Transit, which has recovered about 80% of ridership.

“After the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020, the company’s revenues slowly rebounded, with revenues reaching nearly 58% of pre-pandemic levels in 2022,” according to documents filed in court. “At the same time, however, operating expenses increased disproportionately, largely due to rising fuel, insurance, labor costs and other inflationary impacts on the cost base.”

Posted in Crisis, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 16 Comments

Another month, another record

Posted on June 14, 2024 by grim

From Redfin:

U.S. Home Prices Hit Another Record High, But Mortgage Rates Are Starting to Decline–Which Could Give Buyers Relief

The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time high of $394,000 during the four weeks ending June 9, up 4.4% year over year–the biggest increase in about three months. But there are signs that home-price growth could ease soon. Asking prices have leveled off, and 6.5% of home sellers are cutting their asking price, on average, the highest share since November 2022. Prices are already declining in four U.S. metros: Austin, TX, Fort Worth, TX, San Antonio, TX and Portland, OR. 

Meanwhile, the typical homebuyer’s monthly housing payment dipped to $2,829, which is $30 below April’s record high. Median housing payments have fallen slightly since April despite record sale prices because weekly average mortgage rates have declined to 6.99% .

Mortgage rates are likely to decline further over the summer, which would keep monthly housing costs from spiraling up again. Daily average mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in three months on June 12 after the latest CPI report showed that inflation is continuing to cool. And although the Fed forecast just one interest-rate cut this year at its June 12 meeting, it’s possible the Fed wasn’t able to fully consider the fresh inflation data in time for the meeting; they may revise their projection at the next meeting. (It’s worth noting that daily rates have been volatile for the last several days; they soared after last Friday’s hot jobs report before dropping back down).  

“The latest inflation report is good for homebuyers because it has already sent mortgage rates down, though this week’s Fed meeting will temper mortgage-rate declines,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “But on the other side of the coin, if lower mortgage rates bring back more demand than supply, that could erase the possibility that home-price growth softens, and push prices up even further. Lower rates and higher prices may ultimately cancel each other out when it comes to homebuyers’ monthly payments.”

For now, high costs are keeping some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines. Pending home sales are down 3.5% year over year, the biggest decline in over three months, and Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 18%, sitting at its lowest level since February. But there is one encouraging sign for demand: Mortgage-purchase applications are up 9% week over week. On the selling side, new listings are up 7.8% year over year, but they’re below typical springtime levels, which is why home prices keep rising despite tepid demand. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 42 Comments

Pays to own a home in NJ

Posted on June 13, 2024 by grim

(Until it doesn’t)

From CoreLogic:

Homeowner Equity Insights – Q1 2024

CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 62% of all properties*) have seen their equity increase by a total of $1.5 trillion since the first quarter of 2023, a gain of 9.6% year over year.

In the first quarter of 2024, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased by 2.1%  from the fourth quarter of 2023, representing 1 million homes, or 1.8% of all mortgaged properties. On a year-over-year basis, negative equity declined by 16.1% from 1.2 million homes, or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties, from the first quarter of 2023.

Because home equity is affected by home price changes, borrowers with equity positions near (+/- 5%) the negative equity cutoff are most likely to move out of or into negative equity as prices change, respectively. Looking at the first quarter of 2024 book of mortgages, if home prices increase by 5%, 110.000 homes would regain equity; if home prices decline by 5% 153,000 would fall underwater. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast TM projects that home prices will increase by 3.7% from March 2024 to March 2025.

U.S. homeowners with a mortgage continued to see healthy annual equity gains in the opening quarter of 2024. As one of the nation’s most expensive states with perpetually high housing demand, California homeowners saw the largest equity gain in the country at $64,000, with those in the Los Angeles metro area netting $72,000 year over year. Most of the other large equity gains were concentrated in the Northeast, including New Jersey ($59,000), a state that has ranked in the top three for annual appreciation in CoreLogic’s monthly Home Price Insights report since last fall.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 85 Comments

How does this nonsense even make the news?

Posted on June 12, 2024 by grim

From the Bergen Record:

Thinking about a staycation? Avoid these 2 NJ cities and travel to these instead

We all need a getaway every once in a while, but you don’t always need to travel far to have a good time. Sometimes it’s better to just take a short trip to a nearby city for a staycation or a day trip.

But certain locations might offer more options for entertainment, relaxation and experiences than others, meaning that not every city might be an ideal destination. In fact, two North Jersey cities were named among the worst places for a staycation in the nation.

In a report released by WalletHub this week, a total of 182 cities across the country were ranked from best to worst cities for staycations in 2024. These cities — which include the 150 most populated U.S. cities, as well as at least two of the most populated cities in each state — were ranked on 42 key metrics across three factors: recreation, food and entertainment, and rest and relaxation.
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Jersey City and Newark were both included in WalletHub’s ranking, and both ranked among the 20 worst cities for a staycation in the nation.

Out of the 182 U.S. cities included, Newark ranked 167th overall and received a score of 31.93. The Essex County city ranked 119th for recreation, its highest ranking out of the three factors considered in the report. And, it also ranked 132nd for food and entertainment, as well as 165th for rest and relaxation.

Posted in Humor, Where's the Beef? | 87 Comments

If you have to ask…

Posted on June 11, 2024 by grim

From Newsweek:

Map Shows States With Highest Hidden Housing Costs

The average annual cost of owning and maintaining a single-family home now exceeds $18,000, according to a new study.

Homeownership is often considered a pathway to building wealth, but the ongoing costs of maintaining a home can add up significantly. An analysis by Bankrate round that homeowning costs across the U.S. have increased 26 percent since 2020, at the same time as rising inflation, median house prices hovering around $390,000 and mortgage rates are just below seven percent.

Bankrate’s findings reveal stark differences between states, influenced by factors like home values, local taxes, and inflation.

“The price of everything, including homes and building materials has gone up over the past four years, so it’s not a surprise that we found that hidden costs have gone up, too,” the report’s co-writer Jeff Ostrowski told Newsweek. “One major factor is that home values have surged.”

The study highlights that single-family homeowners in high-cost states like California, Hawaii, and New Jersey pay more than $25,000 annually in ownership and maintenance costs. In contrast, states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi have the lowest costs, with annual expenses around $12,000.
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New Jersey stands out for its high property taxes, which average $10,026 annually—the highest in the nation. Combined with a median home price of $502,400, resulting in $10,048 in maintenance costs, and additional expenses, New Jersey homeowners spend about $25,573 per year on hidden costs​​.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 83 Comments

More affordable homes?

Posted on June 10, 2024 by grim

From USA Today:

High prices and mortgage rates have plagued the housing market. Now, a welcome shift

Mortgage rates are high, home prices are lofty and selection is slim.

There isn’t much to like about the housing market, except for one small positive: more affordable homes are coming onto the market, according to real estate marketplace Realtor.com.  

In May, the national median listing price inched up 0.3% to $442,500 from a year earlier, but price per square foot rose 3.8%, Realtor.com said. Since May 2019, the median listing price has jumped 37.5% while price per square foot soared 52.7%.

With huge price gains since 2019, homes don’t feel like a bargain. But Realtor.com says the big difference between the percentage changes in listing price and price per square foot indicates more affordable homes are for sale now.

“The share of inventory of smaller and more affordable homes has grown, which helps hold down the median price even as per-square-foot prices grow further,” said Realtor.com’s chief economist Danielle Hale. “Some much-welcomed news for prospective buyers.”
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In May, there were 35.2% more homes for sale than a year earlier, Realtor.com said, the seventh consecutive month inventory rose, which is good news for buyers in itself, it said.  

But “a deeper dive into the mix of homes for sale shows a 46.6% increase in homes priced in the $200,000 to $350,000 range across the country year-over-year, even surpassing last month’s high of 41.0%, indicating affordable homes continue to enter the market,” it said.

Inventory growth in this price range outpaced all other price categories in every month from February through May, it said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 39 Comments

Still hot

Posted on June 9, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Real estate update: May marks 7th month of housing inventory growth across the nation

May marked the seventh consecutive month of housing inventory growth across the nation, signaling that the number of homes for sale may slowly be returning to normal.

“The biggest eye-catcher for me is the fact that inventory is rising sharply, said Realtor.com’s Senior Economist Ralph McLaughlin. “There are 35.2% more homes on the market than this time last year, an incredible trend in the direction of normality.”

Despite this inventory increase, the national median listing price increased by 0.3% in May compared to last month. While median listing prices have remained similar to what was seen this time last year, the median list price per square foot has increased by 3.8%. And, overall, homes have spent more time on the market in May, the second month in a row, compared to last year.
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In New Jersey, 13 counties saw an increase in new home listings compared with May 2023, and 11 counties saw new home listings increase compared with April.

Passaic County was the only North Jersey county to see inventory increase from this time last year. With 332 new listings in May, Passaic County saw an increase of 9.21% from May 2023 and 9.93% from last month. And, while not an increase in inventory, Hudson and Morris counties had 480 and 544 new listings, which was about the same compared with May 2023.

Bergen County was the only North Jersey county to see inventory decreases compared with May 2023 and last month. The county had 874 new listings in May, a 2.02% decrease from May 2023 and a 2.89% decrease from last month. Then, Essex and Sussex counties had 492 and 246 new listings in May, respectively — a 3.91% and 4.65% decrease from last year.
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Bergen County was the only North Jersey county to see inventory decreases compared with May 2023 and last month. The county had 874 new listings in May, a 2.02% decrease from May 2023 and a 2.89% decrease from last month. Then, Essex and Sussex counties had 492 and 246 new listings in May, respectively — a 3.91% and 4.65% decrease from last year.
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In North Jersey, homes stayed on the market for the shortest period of time in Morris and Passaic counties, at 17 and 19 days, respectively. Listings are staying on the market for about 24 days in both Bergen and Essex counties, and 31 days in both Hudson and Sussex counties.

Nearly every New Jersey county had an increase in median home prices compared with May 2023, but four counties saw prices decrease from last month: Atlantic, Essex, Hunterdon and Warren.

Morris County had the highest median price increase in North Jersey at 15.35%, with a median listing price of $749,725. Bergen and Hudson counties had median listing prices of $807,500 and $675,000 — a 7.7% and 4.01% increase from May 2023, respectively — while Passaic and Sussex counties had increase of 8.58% and 1.89%, with median listing prices of $499,450 and $407,475.

Essex County was the only North Jersey county to see a slight decrease in median listing prices from April. At $580,000, Essex County had a median price increase of 8.51% from May 2023, but a .39% decrease from last month.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 20 Comments

Tick tick tick

Posted on June 8, 2024 by grim

From the Daily Mail:

Home prices are falling in these 4 former boomtowns – it’s a bad omen for the rest of America

Home prices are falling in four former hotspots – as near-record housing costs push homebuyers away. 

Three of the metros where prices are falling are in Texas, according to new insights from real estate company Redfin.

The sudden drop in values comes after millions of Americans fled to the state during the Covid-19 pandemic – pushing prices through the roof. 

In Austin, home price sales have declined 2.9 percent year over year.

The so-called pandemic ‘boomtown’ has seen an influx of people in recent years – in part due to a thriving tech industry in the city. 

Home prices in San Antonio and Fort Worth have both fallen 1.2 percent, according to the data, while sale prices in Portland, Oregon, are down 0.9 percent. 

Nationwide, price drops are at their highest since November 2022, according to Redfin, which suggests other areas may also see costs decline soon.

Across the US, house prices rose 4.4 percent from a year earlier to an all-time high during the four weeks ending June 2, according to Redfin. 

The median sale price during the period was $392,200. 

But there are early indicators that the national price growth could soften soon, with one in 15 home sellers cutting their asking price over the time period.
…
Portland, Oregon, meanwhile, saw the fourth largest year-over-year price decline, according to Redfin. 

In a reversal of growth trends, more people left Oregon that moved into the state in 2022. 

According to Redfin, the typical active listing has been on the market for 46 days – up 2.3 percent year-over-year.

This suggests home listings are growing stale faster than they were a year ago, as high mortgage rates and housing costs are causing would-be buyers to back off. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 25 Comments