The big slow continues

Posted on November 27, 2018 by grim

From CNBC:

Home price gains shrink to the lowest level since January 2017: September S&P Case-Shiller index

Home values are still rising, but the gains have now shrunk to the lowest level since January 2017, as rising mortgage rates cut into affordability.

Prices increased 5.5 percent annually in September, down from 5.7 percent in August, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.8 percent, down from 5.2 percent in the previous month. The 20-City Composite rose 5.1 percent year-over-year, down from 5.5 in the previous month.

“Home prices plus data on house sales and construction confirm the slowdown in housing,” says David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “One factor contributing to the weaker housing market is the recent increase in mortgage rates.”

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is now a full percentage point higher than it was one year ago, and affordability has fallen to the weakest level in over a decade. Blitzer also pointed to weaker sales of both new and existing single family homes, which peaked one year ago in November 2017.

“Sales of existing homes are down 9.3 percent from that peak. Housing starts are down 8.7 percent from November of last year. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment index dropped seven points to 60, its lowest level in two years,” Blitzer added.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 169 Comments

Yes, NJ is a manufacturing powerhouse

Posted on November 26, 2018 by grim

From ROINJ:

Manufacturing is (hidden) gem of N.J. economy

Manufacturing is not dying, it’s evolving.

So said John Kennedy, the CEO of the New Jersey Manufacturing Extension Program, at a recent Financial Executives International meeting.

“Manufacturing in New Jersey is very hidden,” he said. “People (don’t realize) there are 11,130 manufacturing companies (here),” Kennedy said to the room of around 40 senior financial executives.

“Do you realize there are 378,000 people working for those companies? Do you realize the average income is higher than any other industry, including finance, at $90,000 per person?”

Kennedy said the most relevant issue facing the manufacturing industry is a skills gap that leads to staffing issues.

That may be partially due to the fact few people know how big manufacturing is, he said.

Kennedy said people also aren’t privy to the existence of the over 11,000 manufacturers in the state because they don’t know where they are.

People drive by them without knowing what they are, which, he said, means the facilities are clean and organized — and don’t perpetuate the stereotype of a manufacturing facility.

Kennedy said they are run by highly skilled technicians, who are becoming increasingly difficult to find.

“That’s the No. 1 problem in the state for manufacturing companies,” he said. “Can’t find people. People don’t go into the industry anymore. We figure there’s at least 33,000 open jobs we can’t fill.”

According to Kennedy, after adding up the numbers, manufacturing’s economic impact in the state is about 1.1 million jobs. And every manufacturing job, Kennedy said, drives four other jobs no matter the industry.

Kennedy went on to explain the way technologies such as 3D printing are contributing to the evolution of manufacturing. 3D printing can allow the creation of products, particularly prototypes for auto and aviation, at a drastically lower cost.

Kennedy credits the stigma surrounding the trades and vo-tech schools as the reason young people don’t look at manufacturing as a viable career option. When young people begin to be exposed to a more diverse range of industries, Kennedy said, the negative narrative surrounding trades begins to be addressed.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 31 Comments

Sorry Jersey, not for you.

Posted on November 21, 2018 by grim

From Fortune:

Long Island City Real Estate Booms After Amazon Announces New York Office, Report Says

Though Amazon said it won’t begin hiring for its newly announced office in Queens, N.Y. until 2019, condo sales in the neighborhood are already booming.

For example, one Long Island City brokerage firm said it sold 150 units in just four days, The Wall Street Journal reports.

It’s only been a week since Amazon revealed plans for the New York office and another in Arlington, Va. The two cities offered the company billions of dollars in tax incentives in an effort to get the high-paying jobs that come with the Amazon expansions.

Just before news broke of the new headquarters’ location, two Amazon employees reportedly beat the rush and bought units in New Jersey and Queens, The Wall Street Journal reports. Lawyers told the paper that they’re not aware of any broken laws associated with employees making real-estate transactions based on nonpublic information.

Posted in Economics, Employment, NYC | 32 Comments

Buyers prefer used houses

Posted on November 20, 2018 by grim

From the USA Today:

Rising mortgage rates, home prices are becoming a toxic cocktail in the housing market

Rising mortgage rates and continued home price growth are hurting affordability and fast becoming a toxic cocktail for the nation’s homebuilders.

Sentiment among homebuilders dropped 8 points in November to 60 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. That is the lowest reading since August 2016, but anything above 50 is still considered positive. The index stood at 69 in November of last year and hit a cyclical high of 74 last December.

“Builders report that they continue to see signs of consumer demand for new homes but that customers are taking a pause due to concerns over rising interest rates and home prices,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a builder from LaPlace, Louisiana.

Of the index’s three components, current sales conditions fell 7 points to 67, sales expectations in the next six months dropped 10 points to 65, and buyer traffic registered an 8-point drop to 45. Buyer traffic had broken out of negative territory earlier this year but now appears to be back in it solidly.

Some of the nation’s largest publicly traded homebuilders, like Lennar and KB Home, lowered their expectations for sales in 2019 in recent earnings releases. There is still a shortage of homes for sale, but newly built homes come at a price premium, and as interest rates rise, new home buyers are consequently hit hardest.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage is now more than a full percentage point higher than it was a year ago. The huge home price gains seen over the last two years are now shrinking, but prices were still up a strong 5.6 percent year over year in September, according to CoreLogic.

“For the past several years, shortages of labor and lots along with rising regulatory costs have led to a slow recovery in single-family construction,” said the NAHB’s chief economist, Robert Dietz. “While home price growth accommodated increasing construction costs during this period, rising mortgage interest rates in recent months coupled with the cumulative run-up in pricing has caused housing demand to stall.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Development | 74 Comments

How to get rich quick? Have a legislator carve you out a loophole.

Posted on November 19, 2018 by grim

From the Press of Atlantic City:

NJ’s leveling of room tax playing field also dug a loophole

We’ve long felt it was unfair and detrimental to the hospitality industry for New Jersey to pile room taxes and fees on hotels while giving online room renters such as Airbnb a free ride. So we were glad that legislators and the governor finally leveled that playing field in this year’s budget agreement.

Unfortunately, Democratic leaders did this in a way that created a loophole for one accommodations segment and handed the real estate industry a big gift.

Now everyone who rents out rooms and homes on a short-term basis will pay the state sales tax of 6.625 percent, the state occupancy 5 percent tax, plus local room taxes — a total that can approach 14 percent — except those who pay a licensed real estate broker to hand guests the key.

Really. That doesn’t make any sense, and the Democrats who reached this compromise didn’t offer an explanation or argument in support of this combination tax exemption and real estate industry subsidy. That suggests it’s a shameless ploy for support from brokers and certain vacation property owners.

Democrats may have arrived at this freakishly distorted tax policy, however, somewhat by accident. And the alternatives, such as they are, probably won’t appeal to those on the losing side of this unfair tax scheme.
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t may seem like only a politician could love such an unfair solution that just happens to reward a narrow constituency. But the property owners who rent their rooms and homes on their own might come to prefer it as well.

The only legislative alternative we see is, as Sweeney proposed, to tax all short-term renters of rooms and houses equally. Just strike the words from the new law that rentals aren’t “considered transient accommodations … where the keys to the property … are provided to the lessee at the location of an offsite real estate broker.” That’s a ridiculously untrue statement anyway.

That would be the fairest approach and surely state officials would welcome the additional tax and fee revenue.
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Discount rental key offices will probably arise up and down the shore, competing on price for the simple business of handing out keys. Condo associations may even find it worthwhile to get together and get someone licensed as a real estate broker to hand out keys.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 44 Comments

How can the housing market be slowing?

Posted on November 17, 2018 by grim

From the NYT:

Why the Housing Market Is Slumping Despite a Booming Economy

These should be happy times for the housing sector. The economy is booming, with more people working at higher pay, and with the sizable millennial generation reaching prime home buying age.

Instead, the housing market has gone soft, acting as a drag on the overall economy rather than as a force propelling it forward.

Sales of new single-family homes were down 22 percent in September from their recent high in November 2017, and existing home sales in September were down 10 percent. This tepid residential investment subtracted from G.D.P. growth in each of the first three quarters of 2018.

Home prices have not declined nationally, at least according to the most widely followed indexes. But their rate of increase has declined, and more and more home sellers are finding they must reduce asking prices to find a buyer.

Given how central housing is to the broader economy — it is the biggest driver of both wealth and indebtedness for most families, and its fluctuations have frequently been major factors in past booms and busts — this slump isn’t something to be taken lightly for anyone hoping the good times will last.

So what’s going on?

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 29 Comments

Monopoly for Millennials is making them mad

Posted on November 15, 2018 by grim

Given the weather and hellacious afternoon commute in store for us, I thought I’d post something entertaining. From Fortune:

Millennials Tell Hasbro Just How Insulting ‘Monopoly for Millennials’ Really Is

Hasbro has released a new game, “Monopoly for Millennials,” and it’s getting some blowback from the very demographic the game is supposedly meant to entertain.

The game’s rules and cover art all play up stereotypes the age group is known for.

The box for the game shows Mr. Monopoly taking a selfie, wearing headphones and a participation medal and holding a coffee. The taglines read: “Forget real estate, you can’t afford it anyway,” and “Adulting is hard. You deserve a break from the rat race!” Rather than win by collecting the most money, the game prompts players to collect experiences—including visiting a friend’s couch, going to a vegan bistro, and hitting a week-long meditation retreat. Game pieces include a hashtag and crying emoji.

Though some people are amused by the game, others found the mockery infuriating and took to Twitter to express their irritation.

Many people expressed their annoyance by taking a jab at Baby Boomers.
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Can you provide the URL for the Hasbro-official website featuring “Monopoly for Millennials,” where you trash on my age demographic because baby boomers caused an economic catastrophe that rendered us financially impotent for a decade? Thanks!

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Humor | 154 Comments

A better outcome for NNJ?

Posted on November 13, 2018 by grim

Is this actually the best result for NJ? Discuss. From the WSJ:

New York City and Northern Virginia will be the homes for Amazon.com Inc.’s second and third headquarters, according to people familiar with the matter, ending a more than yearlong public contest that started with 238 candidates and ended with a surprise split of its so-called HQ2.

The imminent announcement is expected as soon as Tuesday, according to the people. Other cities may also receive major sites, some of the people said.

Amazon is dividing the second headquarters evenly between New York’s Long Island City and Arlington County’s Crystal City neighborhoods, which are both located directly across from the major city centers. The company plans to evenly split the offices with as many as 25,000 employees.

The decision effectively gives Amazon a major presence in three coastal hubs that politically lean left, at a time when tech companies are under scrutiny for their perceived elitism and liberal social views.

Amazon declined to comment.
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New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio discussed the Amazon deal Monday night during his weekly television appearance, although he didn’t confirm that the city had been officially selected. He was hopeful that HQ2 would come to New York City. “We’re talking about the single biggest economic development deal in the history of New York City,” he said.

Amazon’s move to New York pits it against rival Google, which is gearing up for its own expansion in the city. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the Alphabet Inc. unit will add office space for more than 12,000 new workers, an amount nearly double the search giant’s current staffing in the city, people familiar with the matter said. On Monday night at the Journal’s D.Live tech conference, Google financial chief Ruth Porat confirmed the company plans to double its New York City staff of 7,000 over a decade.

Posted in Economics, Employment, North Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 163 Comments

Will NJ hit $15?

Posted on November 12, 2018 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Vote on $15 minimum wage for N.J. coming soon, top Democrat says

Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin said Friday he expects his house will vote in the coming months on a much-anticipated bill raising the minimum wage gradually to $15 an hour.

Despite broad support among Democratic lawmakers for this big boost in the minimum wage, legislation has snagged on disagreements over whether certain categories of workers should be excluded.

Coughlin, D-Middlesex, said on radio station 1450 WCTC that he hopes to have a completed bill “in very short order” that the Assembly can vote on in December, at the earliest.

“If it doesn’t get done at the Dec. 17th voting session, then it will be done right after the new year, probably at the first voting session in January,” he said. “At least that’s my goal as of right now.”

Senate President Stephen Sweeney, D-Gloucester, told NJ Advance Media on Friday that Coughlin has been drafting a bill that will become the basis for negotiations between the two houses.

Sweeney is hopeful the Legislature can meet the speaker’s timeline, he said.

“I’m going to work with the speaker and I expect to get it done,” Sweeney said. “I think we’ll get there pretty quick.”

New Jersey’s minimum wage is $8.60 an hour. It will rise 25 cents an hour to $8.85 on Jan. 1, based on a constitutional amendment tying annual increases to changes in the consumer price index.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 42 Comments

Murphy, you want an innovation economy? Fix these.

Posted on November 9, 2018 by grim

From the APP:

3 reasons NJ lost out on Amazon HQ: Bhatti

Here are the top three reasons New Jersey lost:

1. Too expensive for Amazon: Seven billion dollars of tax incentives wasn’t enough. New Jersey made national news when it became known that it offered Amazon $7 billion in tax incentives to move to New Jersey. However, that number needs to be put in context. New Jersey is the most expensive state in the union to do business and often ranks dead last in business-friendly environments. Given the high sales, income, property and business taxes imposed by the state, we needed to offer $7 billion in concessions to just be on par with states who offered fewer concessions but were more attractive because of their low taxes and low-cost basis.

The lesson here is that New Jersey needs to get its house in order. No big business or tech company wants to make a home in a state that is strained under its own debt. Simply put, the state is too expensive for tech and venture capital. When smart founders and CEOs look at the numbers, they say that being in New Jersey will actually be more expensive than being in New York City. I was shown by venture capitalists why New York City is a better place to base their home than New Jersey because of how the state taxes funds.
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2. The New Jersey Sandwich: For years, New Jersey has tried to compete with New York for tech talent. However, we must accept the fact that New Jersey will never have the same ecosystem that New York City has for attracting talent. Every year, several hundred thousand people move to the city to be the next startup founder or Wall Street hot shot. I have been pushing for New Jersey to develop it’s own “core” in complex manufacturing, IoT, AI and robotics, areas that New York City does not yet have a market lead in. It’s imperative that we aggressively push industry sectors where we can win and get them going in New Jersey as soon as possible.

I have noticed an alarming trend that I refer to as the New Jersey Sandwich. Many founders and tech companies from both the West Coast and East Coast are moving to the Midwest and surrounding area. The reason: lower costs, lower taxes, better quality of life for employees and more friendly regulations. I was recently on the phone with a CEO who was excited at moving over half his company from New York City to Nashville. He said that he will be able to pay a lower base, but the employees will have a higher quality of life, their dollar will go farther and in most cases a working family can have one partner be a stay-at-home parent.
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3. The Talent Drain: New Jersey ranks first in the country in millennials moving out and last in the country in millennials moving in. I had one CEO tell me that he does not even recruit out-of-state hires because it’s so hard to get them to move to New Jersey. If we keep draining young talent at this rate, New Jersey will become an even tougher place for tech innovation.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 129 Comments

Glutton for punishment

Posted on November 7, 2018 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Election 2018: N.J. voters OK $500 million for school security, water improvements

New Jersey voters on Tuesday approved a proposal to borrow $500 million to expand vocational schools and bolster security across K-12 school districts, according to projections from the Associated Press.

Voters were asked whether they support the Securing Our Children’s Future Act, a $500 million bond measure that also includes funding for county colleges and improving water systems in K-12 schools. It was the only statewide ballot question.

New Jersey’s Constitution requires that new state borrowing be approved by a majority of voters.

Proponents of the bond issue had argued career and technicals schools need to expand to serve more students. For every seat at the schools, there are 2.3 applications, and last year 17,000 students were turned away.

The technical skills gap between New Jersey’s workforce and industry needs is holding back the state’s economy, they said, while limited admissions are depriving students of training for careers in welding, clean energy, construction and logistics.

The $500 million bond issue is half of what New Jersey lawmakers wanted. Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, cut it from $1 billion out of concern for the state’s already high debt burden.

At $1 billion, the nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services projected the new debt would add $57.5 million to $72.3 million in new borrowing costs every year through 2048, for a total of $1.7 billion to $2.2 billion.

State officials have not said how much $500 million in new borrowing would cost each year. New Jersey is one of the most indebted states and is paying more than $4 billion this year to service its debt.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 158 Comments

NJ Transit will do a great job

Posted on November 6, 2018 by grim

From NJ Spotlight:

NEW NJ TRANSIT DIVISION TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HEFTY REAL ESTATE PORTFOLIO

New Jersey Transit is among the mass-transit agencies that rely the most on fare revenues, according to a recent audit, which suggested a hefty real-estate portfolio could be better leveraged to bring in more for the operating budget.

Several weeks after the release of the audit that raised this issue, Gov. Phil Murphy has signed into law a measure requiring NJ Transit to establish a new division that will concentrate solely on real estate, economic development and so-called transit-oriented development that is generally located within walking distance of train stations.

The new law also requires NJ Transit to provide both the administration and lawmakers a host of information about its real estate every year, including a full inventory of all agency-owned properties and projections of their revenue-generating potential.

“NJ Transit is the second largest landholder in the state, and there has never been a listing of all [its] properties,” said Assemblywoman Yvonne Lopez (D-Middlesex). “This will help us moving forward in determining how to allocate funding to ensure that there are no wasted dollars.”

NJ Transit officials hope the real-estate inventory and emphasis on economic development within the agency will generate more private-sector interest in developing agency-owned properties and ultimately create a new revenue stream that could ease the burden on riders. The new law is also drawing praise from smart-growth planning advocates as it is expected to encourage more innovative development around train stations in the type of walkable, “transit-oriented” communities that are in high demand among millennials.
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“The information and recommendations NJ Transit will receive from the office’s analysis will prove valuable and assist them in efforts to strategically generate additional non-fare revenue sources moving forward,” said Sen. Linda Greenstein (D-Mercer).

Putting a bigger emphasis on new development in communities located near or adjacent to NJ Transit train stations should also fit in with the broader approach to economic development and housing that the governor has sketched out as a key policy goal. Among the many new programs Murphy proposed during a major speech in Nutley last month is a new state tax-credit program that would seek to incentivize new investment in New Jersey’s cities, downtowns and aging suburban communities that are linked to mass transit.

Peter Kasabach, executive director of New Jersey Future, praised that vision and overall “strategic plan” after the governor signed the bill.

“New Jersey is seeing substantial demand for walkable downtowns, particularly those situated near and around transit, and the creation of an office of transit-oriented development within NJ Transit will be a great resource to help meet that demand,” Kasabach said.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Where's the Beef? | 76 Comments

Sorry NJ

Posted on November 4, 2018 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Amazon in ‘advanced’ talks with a city for HQ2. It’s not Newark.

Newark’s chances at landing Amazon’s second headquarters is looking more like a long shot.

Amazon officials are reportedly in “advanced discussions” about establishing its second business hub in Northern Virginia, according to a Washington Post article on Saturday.

Cities across the continent have contended for the new headquarters, dubbed HQ2, offering huge tax breaks in exchange for the retail giant’s estimated 50,000 jobs and a $5 billion investment.

But on Saturday it appeared as if Crystal City, Virginia, had emerged as the front-running city for the online behemoth.

The Post reported that officials from the northern Virginia city and the surrounding county have discussed how quickly employees could move there, what office real estate was available and how to publicly announce the decision. JGB Smith, the city’s top real estate developer has even pulled some of its buildings off the market and earmarked them for Amazon, according to the article.

There has been no official word from Amazon, though, and the company could also be discussing similar details with other cities.

The news would likely come as a huge disappointment to cities that have been wooing the company since it announced its HQ2 competition in fall 2017.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 71 Comments

Home price growth continues to slow

Posted on October 31, 2018 by grim

From CNBC:

Home price gains fall below 6% for the first time in a year: August S&P Case-Shiller index

Mortgage interest rates didn’t begin their recent surge until the start of September, but home prices were already feeling pressure, as fewer people could afford what was for sale.

Nationally, prices rose 5.8 percent in August compared with August 2017, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home prices index. That is less than the 6 percent annual gain in July.

The index’s 10-City Composite rose 5.1 percent annually, down from 5.5 percent in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.5 percent year-over-year gain, down from 5.9 percent in the previous month.

“Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate,” David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “Rising prices may be pricing some potential home buyers out of the market, especially when combined with mortgage rates approaching 5 percent for 30-year fixed rate loans.”
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The market is beginning to balance more between supply and demand, following one of the strongest seller’s markets in decades. There is little concern, however, that prices will actually fall, only that the gains will fall back to more normal, historical levels of 3 percent to 4 percent annually.

“There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis, however. In 2006, when home prices peaked and then tumbled, mortgage default rates bottomed out and started a three year surge,” said Blitzer. “Today, the mortgage default rates reported by the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are stable. Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely.”

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 162 Comments

The “fix” is easy

Posted on October 29, 2018 by grim

The fix is to allow lenders to foreclose without requiring approval of the judiciary, everything else is a gimmick and give-away, like this from NJ101.5:

HOW CAN WE FIX SOUTH JERSEY’S TROUBLING FORECLOSURE MESS?

A new report finds the foreclosure crisis in South Jersey is more severe than any other part of the state.

The report finds New Jersey has highest foreclosure rate in the nation.

Darren Spielman, the executive director of the Senator Walter Rand Institute for Public Affairs at Rutgers-Camden, said the average foreclosure rate in the Garden State is 1 in every 639 housing units. But six of the eight counties with the highest foreclosure rates are in South Jersey.

He said this is the result of lower incomes in South Jersey.

“The economy hasn’t rebounded the same way it has up north coming out of the recession. There are still pockets of low employment,” he said.

He noted when properties are sitting for years as real estate owned, which means they’re foreclosed and owned by a bank or the municipality, they lose about half their value, which in turn drags down the value of other homes in the area.

The report points out that along with the high number of foreclosures, South Jersey has a high percentage of lower and middle-wage individuals living in homes and apartments they can’t afford.

“If you look at the six counties with the highest foreclosure rates, nearly 61 percent of renters are in housing that is unaffordable based on federal guidelines, and more than half of owners are in unaffordable housing,” he said.

To address this, he said we need “to create an efficient process to get foreclosed properties back on the market in a way that they can get into the hands of residents in an affordable way.”

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, South Jersey Real Estate | 64 Comments