July contracts continue downward trend for NJ

Jeffery Otteau reports contracts signed, not closed sales. This is a more timely indicator of market activity, since closed sales represent purchase activity from approximately 2 months prior. Contracts is also a forward looking predictor of closed sales over the next 1-3 months. Given the declining trend in contracts in NJ, the sales numbers we saw yesterday were not an anomaly, and that trend appears to be firmly in place for at least the next few months, absent another round of government subsidization of course.

Otteau’s commentary is a bit surprising, since he usually takes a bit of a more upbeat tone, or at least he had for the last year or so. His point about sales activity being significantly depressed at what would otherwise be the strongest market of the year, is an important one. We are clearly witnessing a market that is no longer acting true to it’s normal seasonal variations.

From the Otteau Group:

Housing Slide Continues During Prime Selling Months (no link)

Home purchase contracts to buy a home in New Jersey fell for the third consecutive month following the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit on April 30th. These recent declines have occurred during what would otherwise be among the strongest months for home sales leading up to the seasonal slowdown in the fall and winter. In July home sales were off by 27% in New Jersey compared to one year ago, which follows declines of 23% in May and 27% in June.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

159 Responses to July contracts continue downward trend for NJ

  1. grim says:

    This is potentially the worst July in, well 20 years, when the last bubble burst.

    NJMLS has the deepest dataset, so let’s look at Bergen:

    Bergen County NJ – NJMLS
    Residential/Condo/Coop/Townhouse

    Year – Contracts

    1985 – 507
    1986 – 539
    1987 – 561
    1988 – 481
    1989 – 432 <- The last real estate bubble crashing 1990 - 434 <- The last real estate bubble crashing 1991 - 692 1992 - 728 1993 - 856 1994 - 788 1995 - 774 1996 - 857 1997 - 898 1998 - 935 1999 - 850 2000 - 843 2001 - 855 2002 - 894 2003 - 1138 2004 - 966 2005 - 941 2006 - 749 2007 - 842 2008 - 690 2009 - 805 2010 - 582

  2. Confused in NJ says:

    Interesting that they keep linking this to the expired Federal Tax Credit, which was relatively insignificant, weighed against the price of housing?

  3. Essex says:

    “…turd…”

  4. grim says:

    2 – Stop assuming humans are rational actors.

    How else do you explain the peak in contracts, in April, that coincides with the deadline?

    And the prompt fall-off, afterwards.

    And the change in trend when the program was initially announced?

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    ‘Jingle Mail’: Developers Are Giving Up On Properties

    Like homeowners walking away from mortgaged houses that plummeted in value, some of the largest commercial-property owners are defaulting on debts and surrendering buildings worth less than their loans.

    Companies such as Macerich Co., Vornado Realty Trust and Simon Property Group Inc. have recently stopped making mortgage payments to put pressure on lenders to restructure debts. In many cases they have walked away, sending keys to properties whose values had fallen far below the mortgage amounts, a process known as “jingle mail.” These companies all have piles of cash to make the payments. They are simply opting to default because they believe it makes good business sense.

    “We don’t do this lightly,” said Robert Taubman, chief executive of Taubman Centers Inc. The luxury-mall owner, with upscale properties such as the Beverly Center in Los Angeles, decided earlier this year to stop covering interest payments on its $135 million mortgage on the Pier Shops at Caesars in Atlantic City, N.J.

    Taubman, which estimates the mall is now worth only $52 million, gave it back to its mortgage holder.

  6. Essex says:

    Rational? Speaking of which….sold my high end road bike.
    Yep. Got sick and tired of the crappy road conditions in Northern NJ and the retarded drivers. Mark me as one less roadie willing to risk life and limb to share the road with complete retards.

  7. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Home sales plunge 27 percent, to lowest rate on record

    The Shore’s housing market told a similar story. Monmouth County sales in July were down 35 percent from last year; Ocean County sales were down 25 percent, according to statistics compiled by real estate analyst and appraiser Jeffrey Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group Inc. in East Brunswick.

    “This is extraordinary, how low the demand is, ” says Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. “The (housing) sector is still flat on its back.”

  8. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Ponzi schemer’s Manhattan condo sells for $6.75 million

    The federal government has sold a Manhattan condominium bought by Ponzi schemer James Nicholson for $6.75 million, property records show.

    Nicholson, a Saddle River resident who headed the hedge fund Westgate Capital Management before his arrest early last year, had purchased the Columbus Circle unit for $8.5 million in May 2008.

    The sale is another sign of the residential real estate bust. But it is also a reminder of how declining home prices have made it more difficult for the government to recoup Westgate victims’ investments from sales of property Nicholson purchased with their money.

  9. SG says:

    Wow. So in Bergen, from peak of 1138 to now 582. Basically from peak to trough it is 50% drop in sales.

    During last bubble, assuming 87 as peak, the numbers fell from 561 to 434, the drop in sales volume was only 22%.

    It seems like nothing can save housing unless there is long term tax credit, may be 3 year long or so….

  10. SG says:

    Time for house prices to start falling again

    I expect house prices to fall further later this year as measured by the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic repeat sales house price indexes, although I don’t expect huge declines like in 2008. My expectation is further price declines of 5% to 10% on the repeat sales indexes.

    Whether or not that turns out to be exactly right, the main point is that we’re still a long way from working through the aftereffects of housing bubble. And while the do-anything-possible-to-boost-housing-prices-and-keep-all-the-banks-from-going-under philosophy that has guided policymaking in Congress and at the White House, Treasury and the Fed over the past couple of years made a certain amount of sense in the midst of a financial crisis, it doesn’t anymore. House prices need to fall some more (in real terms, at least) to lure in enough buyers to pull the housing market out of its depression. So why not accept that reality, and push policies that help people cope with the effects of it, rather than continuing to prolong the inevitable?

  11. SG says:

    The Housing Mirage

    The government has been pretending that troubled borrowers, even if they have numerous debts beyond the mortgage, can become reliable borrowers by tweaking the home loan. Washington also participates in spreading the fiction that recovery depends on keeping people in homes they can’t afford.

    What people really need are jobs, and what the economy needs to create those jobs is for Washington to stop force-feeding investment to politically favored goals and let investors find the most productive uses for their money.

  12. SG says:

    Top 3 Reasons Why Housing Won’t Recover

    1. We Haven’t Hit the Bottom Yet

    Home prices have already dropped 30 percent since they reached their peak in 2006. However, economists say that we have yet to see the bottom. In fact, they think prices may take another tumble this year as we watch foreclosures increase in the market and financial tax credits and record-low mortgage interest rates fall away.

    2. Home Prices Aren’t Set to Rebound for Some Time

    Ever since the financial and housing crises hit our economy in 2008 and foreclosures skyrocketed due to the worst job losses since the Great Depression, property values have dropped to incredibly low levels and have yet to truly increase. Sure, they’ve rebounded some, but as economists predicted in May, prices won’t really increase until the end of 2014.

    3. Many Homes May Stay Underwater

    Home values are expected to steadily appreciate at some point, but since some were purchased at such a high level in 2006 or earlier they may never recover from their underwater mortgages.

    Currently, 25 percent of homeowners owe more than their home is worth, according to research firm First American CoreLogic. This means that one in every four homes will have to obtain a value that at least matches the level it sat when purchased to stop foreclosures and see a full recovery. This may never occur.

  13. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Frist!

  14. dim says:

    If the goal is to keep people in their homes, then wouldn’t the first logical step be to make sure they are in houses they can afford?

  15. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    “This is extraordinary, how low the demand is, ” says Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors. “The (housing) sector is still flat on its back.”

    Hoocoodanode? Guess this guy has not been reading this blog for the past 4 years.

  16. yo'me says:

    2.48

  17. Mr Hyde says:

    If humans were on average rational actors, then the business cycle would be mostly flat. Humans are primarily emotional actors with occasional lapses of rational behavior. Then again emotional behavior is way more profitable for business then rational actors. You can build a consumer economy off of a net rational population.

  18. Final Doom says:

    Somebody get dim to a re-education camp.

  19. Final Doom says:

    July Durable Goods off a cliff, way short of the expected.

  20. Painhrtz says:

    Essex get a mountain bike you don’t have to wear the gay spandex.

  21. Mr Hyde says:

    SG 9

    save housing? We are still in the middle of the greatest RE bubble in history that is being artificially, albiet unsuccessfully propped up by the government with tax $.

    No one in history has ever stopped or prevented the correction portion of a business cycle. If you want to save anything here then immediatly remove all artificial supports including the mortgage tax break and let the market rapidly find it’s natural level

  22. yo'me says:

    Nikkei loosing half of its value from 7/07

  23. Final Doom says:

    hyde (23)-

    I’d rather just identify some politicians, then hunt them like deer.

  24. Mr Hyde says:

    Clot

    dim can join the rest of us in line for re-education

  25. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “These companies all have piles of cash to make the payments. They are simply opting to default because they believe it makes good business sense.”

    [5],

    Why shouldn’t the 25 million, who are currently underwater, follow the same path?

  26. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 25

    that needs to be done as well but that alone won’t help the housing quagmire.

  27. yo'me says:

    2.442%

    Everybody is jumping in the Marrakesh Express

  28. Mr Hyde says:

    Wantan

    drinks?

  29. jamil says:

    “that needs to be done as well but that alone won’t help the housing quagmire.”

    no exit strategy
    guess it is time for 27th vacation for Obama and Michelle Antoinette

  30. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    This is your captain, brace yourself there are rough waters ahead. However, take comfort, the fed is at the helm.

    “The Fed now owns loans to Hilton hotels in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Malaysia and Trinidad. It owns loans to the Miami airport, and the Civic Opera House in Chicago.”

    “It also owned a loan to Crossroads Mall in Oklahoma City. Then, when the owners of the mall couldn’t make the payments, the Fed foreclosed. So now it owns the mall, which includes a Chick-fil-A and an AMC theater.”

    http://www.mybudget360.com/the-trillion-dollar-bailout-you-didnt-hear-about-cre-real-estate/

  31. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/222136-a-monkey-economy-as-irrational-as-ours?source=dashboard_macro-view

    18 – Kettle

    “If humans were on average rational actors….”

    Oh, You are going to love this….Monkey Marketplace

    Folks don’t want to sell at a loss….treating losses differently than gains.

  32. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “drinks?”

    Hyde,

    Now?

  33. Libtard says:

    Yup…durable goods almost non-existent. At 10am we get new home sales and FHFA House Price Index. Dow<10,000 at the open for sure. Keep your powder dry, right?

  34. dim says:

    32 – hey, does that mean citizens can get free sandwiches and movies at Crosslands mall? Kind of like dinner and a movie before getting it up the vuvuzela.

  35. Mr Hyde says:

    Wantan

    bloody Marys ???

  36. Fabius Maximus says:
  37. Fred Mishkin being questioned about his 2k6 report on the Icelandic banking system

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/08/25/325376/mishkins-very-own-icelandic-blow-up/

  38. Cindy says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4r_HWWQyCs

    All aboard…the train…

    Yo’me @ 29

  39. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “All aboard…the train…”

    Cindy [40],

    http://www.topnews.in/files/train-crash.jpg

  40. Mr Hyde says:

    Re 18

    it should say:

    You cant build a consumer economy off of a net rational population

  41. Cindy says:

    Juice – didn’t you mention this guy yesterday?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100824-714468.html

    Herz – to retire.

  42. Cindy says:

    41 – BC – LOL No kidding….

  43. Mike says:

    Tears On My Zillow

  44. Mr Hyde says:

    Wantan

    this train is carrying propane tanks too. Look out for a BLEVE
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3Tk0LUVRso&feature=youtube_gdata_player

  45. Essex says:

    22. Right?! I hear you. Spandex is the Gheyest. But strangely comfortable.

  46. Cindy says:

    http://www.sacbee.com/2010/08/25/2980836/the-buzz-assembly-to-start-enforcing.html

    Big news out of the assembly…update CA

    Budget? No, 56 days overdue….Big news – A dress code. I wouldn’t kid you about a thing like that. Oh My friggin Gosh.

  47. Final Doom says:

    maximus (38)-

    Glazers better make sure SAF keeps giving Scholes his vitamins in the AM, because the minute he goes down (and a guy that age WILL go down in the EPL), there goes the season. When your team’s best performer is 97 years old and Fulham can punk you like a gang of cry-ass bitches, you’re headed for Europa League, at best.

    That being said, I think the Glazers are toast, too.

  48. Libtard says:

    Clot,

    You’ll like this Baristanet post.

    Spending 40 million on a school that will serve 350 students is criminal. A school that was and is wholly unneeded. Keep believing that Montclair schools are top ranked and worth every penny we pay for them. Keep believing that an appointed school board is the best value for our educational dollar. We built a 40 million dollar school and my son is entering a magnet school with a global studies theme that can’t afford a single foreign language teacher. Yup…money well spent. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I think their librarian is now a teacher as well. At least the kids at Bullock can listen to piped in music when they eat lunch, while my son learns to speak Spanish from a book on tape.

  49. Final Doom says:

    Fabius (38)-

    You think Barca is trying to sell Zlatan because they’re broke, too?

  50. Final Doom says:

    lib (50)-

    Rome is burning, and the residents think the fire is a town barbecue.

  51. Painhrtz says:

    Lib sounds like your fellow denziens are starting to wake up

  52. Libtard says:

    Pain…I wish they were, but it was ME who posted it. :P

  53. Essex says:

    Christie looked and sounded great on Morning Joe this AM.

  54. Painhrtz says:

    Lib never mind continue your search for a new home.

  55. Fabius Maximus says:

    #51 Clot

    Don’t think so. I think its more like they realised he was a mistake and are off loading him at a good price. While they are cash short, they do have a transfer budget. If Mascherano comes in that should confirm it.

    Add Giggs to that ManU list. The eventual fall will be sharp, ugly and fast. I cant wait.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [22] pain

    Some of us look good in gay spandex. At least the wife hasn’t complained, and even seems to approve.

    Not that I have the time for road biking—it hasn’t come down off the hooks since I moved here.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [42] Mr Hyde says:
    August 25, 2010 at 8:58 am
    “Re 18

    it should say:

    You cant build a consumer economy off of a net rational population”

    I know its early, but I nominate this for Post of the Day.

  58. Libtard says:

    If Libtard donned Spandex, many emergency calls would be made to local marine biologists.

  59. Libtard says:

    New Home Sales
    Consensus 340 K
    Consensus Range 310 K to 350 K
    Actual 276 K

    GDP on Friday and CS on Monday.

  60. sas says:

    ” We are clearly witnessing a market that is no longer acting true to it’s normal seasonal variations”

    tinfoil hat stuff.

    real estate always goes up.

    SAS

  61. Juice Box says:

    re: # 43 Cindy – Retire? He should do the honorable thing and jump already! FASB made a mark to market rule change in April of 2009 that destroyed their credibility. Political interference from Congress via threats to legislate their power away and they caved. They suspended the mark to market rules for Assets backed junk like MBS and derivatives. Any kind of accounting standard change going forward will not have the quality and integrity that the market needs to inspire confidence in the masses to invest becuase we all know know it is a fiction and a ponzi.

  62. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Female Re reporter on CNBC (forget name) unexpected, unexpectedly, very unexpected in the course of 60 seconds, where has she been under a rock. LMAO, did anyone catch it?

  63. Confused in NJ says:

    If you want to know where all the jobs have gone, try talking to Verizon Tech Support, when your High Speed Internet Server goes down. Won’t take long to realize your talking to India. Takes about an hour minimum of your time to get them to refer the problem back to the United States, because the problem is Never your PC or Modem, always the Verizon Central Office.

  64. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Home builders up on the news, go figure.

  65. Libtard says:

    It could have been worse they suppose.

  66. Unexpected HEHEHE says:

    Home sales come in “unexpectedly” lower. Unemployment comes in “unexpectedly” higher. etc.

    Wall Street economists are such liars and thieves.

  67. Shore Guy says:

    Looking at the chart at the top of this tread, the pre-tax credit trend seems to have resumed. Att the credit did was to create a blip in the trend line. Some stupid use of tax money, it seems.

    As for house sales in Monmouth and Ocean declining, that is simply a reflection of people refusing to sell at new-market prices.

    Despite our decision not to buy before the first of the year, we looked at a few places this month in coastal Monmouth county, and in Bay Head. Every one of them was overpriced to the point where it was not even worth taking any action other than saying “thank yoy and we will be in touch.” Instead we bought art; which may or may not be worth one pays for it but is nice to look at, anyway.

    After the season is over, it is time to take a closer look at the coast from VA Beach to Fort Lauderdale.

    The lack of rationality in NJ is burning me out.

    I am supppsed to be back in the USVI in a few weeks but they are such a pain to get to and from that I doubt we will settle on a place there. Besides, the only people who seem more deluded about the value of their homes than NJ residents are those in the USVI.

  68. Juice Box says:

    re: #71 – Shore Bay Head eh? You and I could get into a bidding war if they prices
    do actually drop as predicted.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    I love Bay Head. It is a Shore town that actually looks like one.

  70. Libtard says:

    Plus, Bayhead has the bullet train.

  71. Shore Guy says:

    Shhhhhhhh. Don’t say bullet near Clot.

  72. Shore Guy says:

    Speaking of bullets, though:

    ttp://wap.cbsnews.com/site?t=Ke7a-56ghJ4qdi-pCn7dNw&sid=cbsnews

  73. Juice Box says:

    re # 74 – shhhhhhhsss! don’t tell anybody but it’s coming.

    http://www.njtransit.com/var/var_servlet.srv?hdnPageAction=HighSpeedNECTo

  74. Mike says:

    OMG 1756 properties currently for sale in Toms River http://www.weichert.com/NJ/Ocean/Toms_River/Gallery/?mls=12%2c13%2c17%2c25%2c74%2c9 enough for 5 years if you sell one a day

  75. Juice Box says:

    $400 million down the tubes, becauase someone down in Trenton cannot fill out a form properly, could have saved allot of Teachers from layoffs.

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/08/error_on_race_to_the_top_appli.html

  76. Shore Guy says:

    Mike,

    Nothing like fixerupper for over $1mm. But, of course, everything was “state of the art” when it was built in 1930.

    What? Like lead paint? Like no insulation? Like bare wiries running from ceramic insulator to ceramic insulator?Like, what other “state of the art” thing from the 1930s are people rushing out to buy?

  77. Shore Guy says:

    Back to the salt mine

  78. Final Doom says:

    box (77)-

    Guaranteed that thing will burn money faster than a municipal incinerator.

  79. Final Doom says:

    box (79)-

    We are a state of idiots, taught by idiots.

    I’m glad we didn’t get the money. Putting money in Trenton’s hands (or the NJEA) is the equivalent of handing a .38 to a 2 year old.

  80. Mike says:

    ShoreGuy It’s still pretty neat!

  81. Justin says:

    Is this the Summer of Recovery or what? I am glad the unemployment rate stayed below 8%.

  82. wtf says:

    Suck on this Jamil…

    Government Motors no more
    An apology is due to Barack Obama: his takeover of GM could have gone horribly wrong, but it has not

    http://www.economist.com/node/16846494

  83. Mr Hyde says:

    Justin,

    When the unemployment rate refuses to count people who are “chronically” unemployed it isnt very useful anymore. That 8% doesnt include 10’s – 100’s of thousands of people who have been out of work for too long and are now dropped off of the unemployment rolls.

  84. Surpised says:

    Posting under a pseudonym.

    I just found out that twins are on the way for a soon to be total of 3 children under 5. I will have to get a larger car. Can anyone suggest cars that can realistically hold 3 car seats?

    -Surprised

  85. Libtard says:

    I will never forgive Obama and the congress for the porkulus. Obama could all of a sudden figure out how to sh1t golden turds, but he blew it when he started his term in office by blowing 800 billion on complete and utter cr@p. I suppose he was simply jealous of W and his useless war in Iraq. Same with Governor Michelin Tire Man and his leaky cap. They are all criminals. Stop giving any of them credit. They don’t deserve an ounce of it.

  86. hughesrep says:

    89

    I have a one year old and a two year old, and the obligatory drinking problem.

    We went straight to the SUV. I know It has hookups for three car seats in the middle row, if they could fit? One or two more in the third row. If I have to use those I’ll switch to hard drugs.

  87. Painhrtz says:

    Surprised Mazda Cx-7 girl at work has one and loves it. Very roomy. Gets great reviews

  88. Surprised says:

    hughesrep, I will have to start working on the drinking problem.

  89. hughesrep says:

    93

    I forgot congrats!

  90. Surprised says:

    Hughesrep, what SUV do you have? How reliable is it?

  91. Libtard says:

    I do not recommend the Xterra. Check engine light back on now after 5 trips to the shop. Replaced the cats, anti-knock sensor and the EGR valve. Also performed two hard resets of the computer. Almost time to break out the small square of electrical tape to cover up the check engine light.

  92. Clotpoll says:

    wtf (87)-

    Yeah…what’s the big deal about abrogating rule of law?

    Feelings and “fairness” are much more important than law.

    “An apology is due to Barack Obama: his takeover of GM could have gone horribly wrong, but it has not”

  93. hughesrep says:

    95

    We got a Pilot. It’s only a few months old. We had a battery die on us, the dealer handled it. They couldn’t find a reason it died, a fluke on a bad battery was the guess.

  94. Anon E. Moose says:

    Congrats, [89]! And look at the Honda Odyssey. It was on our list, but we went with the CR-V because we didn’t need the 3rd row yet, and wifey said a) the Odyssey was too big for her to park (she’s mannaged to ding up the CR-V pretty good, so I guess I believe her) and b) she wasn’t prepared to dive a minivan.

  95. Clotpoll says:

    surprised (89)-

    Bradley Fighting Vehicle.

  96. hughesrep says:

    100

    When we got our Pilot we got an upgraded version b/c of the leather seats. I noticed it automatically came with the sunroof and decied it would be a good spot to mount the turret if need be.

  97. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Clotpoll says:”

    Where’s Doom?

  98. Libtard says:

    hughesrep (100):

    For what it’s worth, the only repair I’ve ever made on my 95 Civic was the alternator. If yours makes any sign of being the culprit for the dead battery (quite common), you get it replaced under warranty. I’m betting the alternator is only guaranteed for 36 months/30K miles.

  99. jcer says:

    Lib, I told you Nissan in Japanese means piece of sh*t car! May pathfinder had big issues with it’s engine, the check engine light turning on, burning oil, solenoids, the variable valve timing I think was malfunctioning. The dealer would fix it an then three months later the light would be back on, my answer was trade it in.

  100. jcer says:

    Honda’s have always been super reliable, I have always thought they are the most reliable japanese car.

  101. Clotpoll says:

    BC (103)-

    Feeling retro lately.

    Retro, as in 16th century.

  102. Libtard says:

    I hear ya jcer. We’ll just drive it until she stops going. Not worth trading in.

  103. DL says:

    Anyone who tells you they know how to navigate out of this mess is straight up lying. No one has a clue about how to get out from under this cosmic debt booger other than to default. First one to admit it gets my vote.

  104. Shore Guy says:

    Once the budget is in the black (yea, I know), the Fed will bail us all out. First, they will buy back most if not all foreign-owned treasury debt and then it will simply forgive it all. Uncle Sam’s interest payment load will drop through the floor, and the savings will be used either to: 1) pay off domestic debt holders; on tax cuts; or to fund a downpayment on spending on a whole bunch of stuff we do not need.

  105. Shore Guy says:

    Instead of holding trillions in paper promises to pay paper dollars our former debtholders will hold real, genuine paper dollars, suitable for framing, so they dont lose. The Fed has a magic balance sheet and never has to earn any money, so it is happy, and the taxpayer is off the hook for real money, so we go back to overpaying for RE, etc.

  106. Shore Guy says:

    No back to our regular programing…………

  107. JJ says:

    John says:
    April 23, 2009 at 9:56 am
    CNA FINL CORP DEB 7.25000% 11/15/2023
    Basic Analytics
    Price (Ask) 60.000
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 13.643%
    126117AE0
    Investment grade bond of the day

    Wow talk about time travel!!! I was selling this bond today and as always do a little research first, this pops up in my research. Nice 82% gain, considering this bond was always investment grade and CNA was never in any trouble it is a sure sign of a bull market in bonds that something investment grade can pop this much. CNA no downgrades, profitable company, why it was 60 cents in first place was beyond me, why it is 108 cents today is also beyond me.

    I see home prices keep falling, the bond bubble still bubbling, who will be lucky enough to get out of bonds at top and into RE at bottom, hope it is me. Investing now has too much luck. Lucky for you guys our downpayments are up 100% in last 18 months. And home prices are down. If this keeps up we will all be in mansions bought with cash.

    chifi lunch thursday or friday? I see Ambac is still in business.

  108. Juice Box says:

    Here is a good one.

    “We’ve reached a point now where it’s like a milk cow with 310 million tits! Call when you get honest work!”

    http://gawker.com/5621785/obamas-deficit-commission-chairman-goes-on-hilarious-email-tirade

  109. sas3 says:

    A boozed-up bigot who just returned from filming U.S. Marines in Afghanistan used a pocket knife to slash a Manhattan cabbie – just because the driver was Muslim, police said Wednesday.

    Michael Enright, 21, of upstate New York, was charged with felony attempted murder as a hate crime – among other crimes – after the sick attack on Ahmed Sharif, 43, Tuesday night.

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/08/25/2010-08-25_muslim_cab_driver_slashed_by_upstate_new_york_man_because_of_his_religion_police.html#ixzz0xdxSXKq3

  110. jmacdaddio says:

    Ah, SUVs. I was thinking of getting one, but the ones I really want are kinda pricey so I was thinking of getting a used one to use as a beater. I don’t want to drop more than $3k. Any thoughts on what I should look at?

  111. Justin says:

    How Bad Was July’s Plummet in Home Sales?

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/how-bad-was-julys-plummet-in-home-sales/61959/

    Pretty neat and fancy charts.

  112. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:
  113. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [87] wtf

    “An apology is due to Barack Obama: his takeover of GM could have gone horribly wrong, but it has not”

    Horribly? I guess it could have been worse. Of course, I am not a former bondholder so it’s easy for me to say.

    Now, assuming I want a car built like those in the 70’s, who do I see about my taxpayer discount?

  114. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [71] shore guy

    When I went to St. Croix a few years ago on gov business, my return flight was delayed (and my connections in PR blown) because of volcanic ash from Monserrat.

  115. JJ says:

    GM Bondholders would have got squat anyhow. I was sitting on a small amout of GM Financing bonds from a long time back, GM spun off GMAC my bonds became GMAC and GMAC got bailed out and my bonds have since matured at par. Ford, American Axle etc. lots of car related bonds got bailed out. GM (Autos) Wamu (banking), Lehman (brokerage) were all the lambs led to slaughter to show their industries don’t count on everyone getting bailed out next time.

    Funny part AIG bonds are above par now as they are assumed to be US Treasuries cash equivalents. They get a plus for the bailout in terms of default risk.

    I am buying into any new bond offer from GM when it goes public.

    Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:
    August 25, 2010 at 3:03 pm
    [87] wtf

    “An apology is due to Barack Obama: his takeover of GM could have gone horribly wrong, but it has not”

    Horribly? I guess it could have been worse. Of course, I am not a former bondholder so it’s easy for me to say.

    Now, assuming I want a car built like those in the 70′s, who do I see about my taxpayer discount?

  116. Mr Hyde says:

    Jmac

    Long time no see. How goes fatherhood and home ownership?

  117. Painhrtz says:

    JM vintage 4runner if you can get someone to part with it those things are like Japanese tanks. It is the favorite miltary vehicle is for 3rd word paramilitaries. The Toyota hilux which is basically a 1989-1996 toyota pick up which shares the same underpinings with the 4runner.

  118. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Hi-Yo Silver, Away!”

  119. jmacdaddio says:

    Been a while – for the past year or so I’ve had a killer workload and no time to post. Fatherhood is going well, my little guy is a joy. Home ownership is ok too, although I miss calling the landlord to fix stuff. I’m moving forward on a refi because I’ll trim nearly 3 points off my rate. Prices are slightly down over 2008 when I bought but not an all-out bloodbath, so there’s some hope.

  120. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Greek FinMin: recession milder than forecast

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-FinMin-recession-milder-apf-939255819.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

    Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!

    On another note, love the late day pump in the markets. They want QE2 and they want it now!

  121. Final Doom says:

    sastry (115)-

    Groups of Muslims abducted Westerners- just because they were Jews or Christians- and videotaped their executions. What is your point here?

    Maybe the guy just had a problem with the cabbie’s car air freshener.

  122. Final Doom says:

    IL teachers’ pension Ponzi tries to get Tyler Durden to take back his mean words:

    “In response to my last comment on whether pensions are the next AIG, Dave Urbanek, Public Information Officer at the Teachers’ Retirement System of the State of Illinois (TRS), sent me this message:

    ‘Please remove your post of Tyler Durden’s inaccurate analysis of the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System. It is not excellent. It is wrong.

    TRS is not in a death spiral. We’ll still be operating and paying pensions for years to come.

    We could potentially sell $3 billion in assets if the Illinois General Assembly does not come up with its annual contribution to TRS. The state owes us $2.35 billion. Two other state pension systems are also selling assets until the state makes its payments to them. That is the only reason we are selling assets.

    We are not selling assets because we are on the risky side of any investments, as Mr. Durden claims. Here are the facts: We could potentially sell $3 billion in assets. Last year our investment income totaled $4.6 billion – a 13 percent return. We did not lose money. We have $33 billion in total assets. We will pay $4.1 billion in pensions and benefits during the current fiscal year. Do the math. We are not in a death spiral.

    What Mr. Durden doesn’t say – and won’t because it ruins his story – is that TRS sold $1.3 billion in assets last year for the same reason: The General Assembly hadn’t yet come up with its annual contribution. The state ultimately sold bonds and made the payment, and we not only got our money back from the assets we sold but did not have to sell any further assets.

    Repeating Mr. Durden’s incorrect rants on your blog is highly irresponsible.’

    I thank Mr. Urbanek for his response and I am glad TRS is not in a “death spiral”. I never claimed they were, just that they’re forced to liquidate stocks at the worst possible time and are taking riskier bets to cover their shortfall. In particular, did TRS sell billions of derivatives (mostly CDS) to bet on a rising market/ collapsing spreads (aka the AIG trade) and are they still betting on a drop in Treasuries (rise in yields)?

    What remains to be seen is how TRS and other mature public pension plans suffering from ever widening deficits will respond to long-term structural issues plaguing the pension industry. Tough choices lie ahead, and there are no simple solutions to the pension crisis.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trs-responds-death-spiral-comments

  123. Final Doom says:

    “I like the concept of a “contained depression”.

    We are certainly in a depression. However, 40 million people on food stamps as of August 2010, masks that depression. The cost of the food stamp program is on schedule to exceed $60 billion in fiscal 2010. For comparison purposes, there was just over 11 million on food stamps in 2005.

    Please note there are 14.6 million unemployed, but of them 4.5 million of them are receiving regular unemployment benefits and another 4.7 million are receiving extended benefits. Thus 63% of those unemployed are receiving benefits. Being paid while not working also masks the depression.

    In addition, there is massive underemployment with 8.5 million working “part time for economic reasons” and another 2.6 million “marginally attached” workers who want a job but are not considered unemployed because they have not looked for 4 weeks. This is “containment” of sorts, as the official numbers mask the depth of the unemployment problem.

    Finally, countless millions have not paid their mortgage for months or even a year without being foreclosed on. Free from mortgage expenses but having a place to live certainly makes life a lot easier.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/08/contained-depression.html

  124. relo says:

    Interest rates, too!

  125. House Whine says:

    131- Further to your point about this depression, trust me when I tell you that there are a lot of really, really stressed out people out there. Currently, I work in the medical field and thus am privy to listening to countless woes of people. I am not trained to be a psychologist, nor do I want to be one. Sad, really sad.

  126. satara says:

    My wifes immigrant coworker brought her parents here.Living with her and the parents are collecting food stamps and selling the food stamps for cash to send to her kids in her country.Sad part,they are collecting SSI too since they became citizen.
    Just lovely.They always find the loop holes,just like the lawyers.

  127. me@work says:

    House Whine

    Amen, Brother!!

    sl

  128. firestormik says:

    Sastry, visit Brighton one day and see what kind of cars foodstamp people drive there
    You will be amazed too see it

  129. sas3 says:

    Satara #135, the parents wouldn’t be eligible for Social Security unless they accumulate enough Social Security credits… Also, this sort of thing is not very common.

  130. Essex says:

    I grew up with stress. My folks had some struggles. But really it is how you overcome these things that separates the winners from the losers.

  131. Amazing that things are not picking up by now. Can’t be that long to go… Can there?

  132. Yikes says:

    good times on the border!

    sending your kid to UTEp right now would be foolish

    http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_15863324?source=most_viewed

  133. gary says:

    We are clearly witnessing a market that is no longer acting true to it’s normal seasonal variations.

    This market hasn’t been acting true for 10 years. We’ll see normal seasonal variations when sellers are holding signs on the side of the highway with bullhorns blaring pleading for someone… anyone… to at least look at their depreciating sh1t box as their little barefoot schmutzi squats with a wooden rice bowl in the overgrown, weeded area off to the side.

  134. Al Gore says:

    141.

    Yikes. I watched a beheading video by the drug cartels that would make the Taliban look like childs play.

    It is far too gruesome to post but that whole situation is a perfect destabilization play.

  135. jamil says:

    sastry:
    “A boozed-up bigot who just returned from filming U.S. Marines in Afghanistan used a pocket knife to slash a Manhattan cabbie – just because the driver was Muslim, police said Wednesday.”

    Keith Olberman and Katie Couric were right, those conservative tea-party bigots are everywhere!
    As usual, State Media gets excited and is all over the story. When the facts get out, ie the attacker was pro ground zero mosque liberal, State Media goes silent (or just keep on – why let the facts distort The Narrative)

    “Alleged anti-Muslim attacker works at pro-Park51 group.”
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0810/AntiMuslim_attacker_works_at_proPark51_group.html

  136. jamil says:

    sastry: Those tea-party bigots are on fire.
    Now they have firebombed the office of Honorable Rep Carnahan (D-Corrupt). Nancy Pelosi was right!
    Almost too good story for the The Narrative..

    “Rep. Russ Carnahan confirmed that former staffer Chris Powers was the individual who “firebombed” his campaign office, not tea party activists as some in the local media had reported”

  137. Final Doom says:

    Shit. I’m beginning to think like Jamil.

  138. Final Doom says:

    Don’t forget Hillary’s “vast right-wing conspiracy”.

  139. satara says:

    sas3
    I said SSI not SS>I am sure you know the diff

  140. Libtard says:

    Jamil…I was wondering when you would return with the truth.

  141. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Amazing that things are not picking up by now. Can’t be that long to go… Can there?”

    Much longer and a steeper decline than most can imagine. The fat lady has just begun to take singing lessons.

    Actually, our policy response has been more amazing; shifting worthless paper from dead banks to a dead fed, suspending accounting rules and pumping trillions into a dead economy. Even more amazing, supposedly, educated people actually thought that the economy would reflate.

    The past economy is not coming back. We are staring down the barrel of years of deleveraging. Attempting to paper over paper is a fools game. That said, we certainly have the personnel to play a fools game.

    One item you can bank on; it’s gonna be a long, long walk home.

  142. Essex says:

    150. But The Chosen One, blessed be he, is using all of Bill Clinton’s old cronies, what could possibly go wrong????

  143. gary says:

    Went to two open houses in Wyckoff over the weekend. Both were expanded splits, very nice layouts and beautiful properties. I can’t go into all the details but they were definitely “home” worthy and didn’t fall into my “p1ss hole” category. One was at 669K and the other at 739K. The spouse and I both agreed they’re still at 2008 – 2009 prices and need to go 15% lower (at least) on asking price. I don’t know what the next 18 months will look like but I ain’t budging until it feels right. It’s still far away from feeling right.

  144. Essex says:

    Puleaze Gary. You and the rest of the board will still be kicking tires in 2030. Besides, who the hell would buy here knowing what they do now. Not me brother.

  145. gary says:

    Essex, I bought my first and second home when conditions were considered normal. Although, buying the current one in 2001 was by luck because even then, multiple bids in a matter of hours were standard. If by chance, it takes until 2030 for the tires to feel right, then I’ll make the move. Although, I’ll probably be dead by 2030. :o

  146. Hell is Frozen says:

    Pat agrees with Essex.

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  148. So shocked that we are still talking about the downturn.

  149. spyderjacks says:

    Finally, (at least for me), a bank-owned, as-is, do your own CO, comp killer of the first order, in scenic Bedminster, NJ.

    Price History
    Date Description Price % Chg $/sqft Source
    08/05/2010 Listed for sale * $464,900 -55.7% — CENTURY 21 Worden & Green
    12/29/2005 Sold $1,050,000 98.1% — Public Record
    01/29/1990 Sold $530,000 — — Public Record

  150. Essex says:

    *Last*

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