“We are just trading off good news now for bad news in 2010.”

From Minyanville:

Where the Housing Market Goes From Here

Subsidizing renters with gobs of greenbacks if they buy a house turns out to be a pretty popular program.

Thanks to the tax credit for first-time home buyers, as well as cheaper home prices and lower mortgage rates, existing home sales increased by 9.4% to a 5.57 million annual rate in September, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.

Sales had been forecast to rise to an annual rate of 5.35 million, according to economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

First-time home buyers, many of whom certainly owe you and every other taxpayer a thank-you card, rushed in to take advantage of the program.

The question, though, is what happens after the program expires in November?

Patrick Newport, US economist at IHS Global Insight, notes that the government’s home-buyer tax credit, like Cash for Clunkers, simply shifts sales from one period to another, but it doesn’t do much to heal the housing market.

“The report might, on the surface, look to be really good,” Newport tells us. “But, if you think about it more carefully, it’s really not great news. We are just trading off good news now for bad news in 2010.”

This entry was posted in Economics, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

220 Responses to “We are just trading off good news now for bad news in 2010.”

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Fewer McMansions on the Horizon

    If you’re looking to buy a brand-new McMansion in the ‘burbs, you’d better act fast. With home prices this low there’s not much incentive for builders to start new houses. And inventories are getting razor-thin: Economists and analysts at the National Association of Home Builders fall construction conference in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday pointed out that the current 7.3-month supply of new homes is the lowest it’s been since 1992.

    Moreover, most of the summer’s pickup in home sales and starts, which has since abated, could be attributed to the $8,000 first-time home buyer’s tax credit. With that credit slated to end on Nov. 30—and with continuing problems securing money to build—builders have little incentive to ramp up their production of new homes.

    When the market does start to pick up, the NAHB sees that happening two years from now, the landscape will be changed, literally. After a long run-up in median new home size, peaking at 2,309 square feet in 2007,home sizes shrank to 2,091 square feet in 2009. “It’s the largest decline ever seen,” said NAHB’s chief economist David Crowe. Since first-time buyers and their parents, the empty-nesters, will be the dominant demographic groups over the next decade, builders will cater to those groups more modest needs. Already, big builders like Toll Brothers have introduced models that look more like cozy carriage homes and four-squares than their usual English manor-style homes.

  2. safeashouses says:

    I think the 8k credit is like a keg party, once it is tapped out the crowd demands more or stumbles drunkenly to the next gig.

  3. grim says:

    From the Philly Inquirer:

    NJ bolsters ‘senior freeze’ property tax program

    Thousands of elderly and disabled New Jersey residents will more easily get a break on their property taxes under a new law enacted this month.

    Known as the “senior freeze,” the program allows eligible homeowners to receive the difference between the amount of local property taxes they paid when they enrolled in the program and the amount they paid in the reimbursement year.

    Applicants must meet income requirements and have paid property taxes directly or through rent on a principal residence for at least 10 consecutive years, including three as the owner of the property for which they’re seeking reimbursement.

    But participants who moved were ineligible to receive reimbursement until they had lived in their new residence for three years, a requirement that had drawn much criticism.

    The measure (A-2195/S-661), signed by Gov. Jon Corzine this month after it passed the Legislature this summer with bipartisan support, cuts a year off that requirement. It means qualified “senior freeze” participants can resume claiming their reimbursement after the second tax year in their new home.

    The program now helps about 132,000 households. Recipients must be disabled or at least 65 years old and earning $80,000 or less annually.

  4. grim says:

    From the Record:

    In pursuit of mortgage relief

    Eager to get their three children into a well-regarded school system, Yomalis Hilario and Johnny Montero paid $468,000 for a house in Paramus in 2006. But they soon found themselves struggling to make the $3,700 monthly payment on their two high-interest mortgages.

    “I told them I needed a better interest rate,” Hilario recalled. The loan servicer cut the rate on the main mortgage from 8.25 to 7.125 percent, and on the second mortgage from 12 percent to 7 percent.

    But because of job setbacks the couple still couldn’t keep up with payments, and the home was sold in a sheriff’s auction in September.

    As Hilario’s experience shows, mortgage modification is not a cure-all for distressed homeowners and a troubled housing market. While the Obama administration is touting the progress lenders have made on modifying mortgages, critics say the process remains complicated and drawn out. And in some cases, loan modification doesn’t work, because the homeowners simply have too much debt and too little income to afford their homes.

    Hilario, 34, said the loan modification she got from Houston-based Litton Loan Servicing didn’t cut the family’s monthly payments enough to be affordable. That was especially true because the household’s income dropped as the recession deepened.

    Hilario lost her job in the shipping industry, and now works part time at a mortgage company. Her husband’s hours were cut at the limousine company where he works as a driver. He now also drives a school bus.

    After Litton cut their interest rate, Hilario continued to press the company for an even lower rate. She also got a break from the lender on the second mortgage on her home, and reached out to housing counselors.

    But while all this was going on, foreclosure proceedings moved forward. In a sheriff’s auction Sept. 11, the lender bought back their house.

  5. Schumpeter says:

    safe (2)-

    I nominate this as a candidate for post of the year.

  6. Schumpeter says:

    grim (4)-

    Bet there was no fraud in the file for those mortgage apps…

  7. confused in NJ says:

    Obama: Legalize Illegals to Get Them Healthcare

    Friday, September 18, 2009 10:11 AM

    By: Stephen Dinan, Washington Times Article Font Size

    President Obama said this week that his health care plan won’t cover illegal immigrants, but argued that’s all the more reason to legalize them and ensure they eventually do get coverage.

    He also staked out a position that anyone in the country legally should be covered – a major break with the 1996 welfare reform bill, which limited most federal public assistance programs only to citizens and longtime immigrants.

    “Even though I do not believe we can extend coverage to those who are here illegally, I also don’t simply believe we can simply ignore the fact that our immigration system is broken,” Mr. Obama said Wednesday evening in a speech to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute. “That’s why I strongly support making sure folks who are here legally have access to affordable, quality health insurance under this plan, just like everybody else.

    Mr. Obama added, “If anything, this debate underscores the necessity of passing comprehensive immigration reform and resolving the issue of 12 million undocumented people living and working in this country once and for all.”

  8. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    Walking away is not so easy:
    (sold my condo for 65% of purchase price after 12 years)

    A RECENT study suggests that most homeowners have qualms about abandoning a mortgage that they can afford to pay, even if it straps them to an investment that’s unlikely to pay off anytime soon.

    Skip to next paragraph
    More Mortgage Columns But if the house has lost significant value, or if many neighbors walk away from their mortgages, the study says, “strategic defaults” are significantly more likely.

    It is an increasingly common question facing homeowners, many of whom have seen their properties lose large amounts of equity in recent years: would you give up a home that is considered to be “underwater” even if you could still afford the monthly payments?

    Three academic researchers posed that question this year in a telephone survey of about 1,000 homeowners nationwide and found that when a mortgage exceeds the home’s value by less than 10 percent, strategic defaults are rarely considered. But if the home’s value dropped to half of the mortgage amount, 17 percent would abandon the loan.

    “The fact that there is a price for morality is kind of obvious, in a sense,” said Luigi Guiso, a researcher with the European University Institute in Fiesole, Italy, who, along with American researchers at Northwestern University and the University of Chicago, completed the survey in March. “What we did not know was how big of a price it would be.”

    Eighty percent of the respondents considered strategic defaults morally wrong. People under age 35, though, judged strategic defaults less harshly — 69 percent found them morally wrong — than those of middle age, of whom 86 percent found them morally wrong.

    The survey suggests that the moral barriers to strategic default erode significantly once the mortgage exceeds a home’s value by at least 20 percent.

    There are roughly 461,000 homeowners in New York City and its surrounding counties who are considered underwater with their mortgages, and more than 23,000 of them have mortgages whose value exceeds the value of their homes by at least 25 percent, according to First American CoreLogic, a mortgage industry consultant in Santa Ana, Calif.

    Mr. Guiso says social factors can affect a person’s decision to stay in his or her home or walk away. According to his survey, people who bought their homes more than five years ago were nearly 80 percent less likely to consider a strategic default than recent purchasers. Friendships with neighbors and ties to the local school system are strong anchors, he explained.

    Homeowners may not always understand the implications of a strategic default, said Jeanne Kelly, the president of the Kelly Group, a credit consulting business in Rhinebeck, N.Y. A foreclosure will drop the borrower’s credit score by at least 100 points, and will remain on a credit report for seven years, she said.

    Craig Watts, a spokesman for FICO, the company that developed the most widely used scores for assessing credit risk, agreed. He added that if a borrower had a credit score of 700 before a foreclosure, it could take seven years to regain that level.

    “The main factors for improving one’s FICO score,” he said, “are the same regardless of one’s current score: pay all bills on time, keep any revolving account balances low, and take on a new credit obligation only when you really need it.”

    Ms. Kelly, the credit consultant, said a bank might not offer the borrower another mortgage even if his or her credit score rebounded quickly.

    And in the meantime, consumers who walked away from a mortgage will struggle to get credit of any kind. “You won’t get a personal loan or a car loan,” Ms. Kelly said, “and your credit card limits will drop and your interest rates will rise.”

    Job seekers can also run into trouble, because many employers check credit reports. “For those who want to throw away the keys and say the bank’s made enough money already,” she said, “it’s not that simple.”


  9. Question says:

    If someone buys a home for say $600k in 2004 and today it is worth $525k and they owe $580k – they just walk away and the bank / lender / mtg servicing co takes over?

    What if the above happens and the people walking away have $350k in savings / investments? Would not the lender or mtg servicing co or their agent go after this $$.

    Am I correct assuming that people walking from their mortgages have no liquid assets or if they do, the lender will go after those assets to cover the shortfall when they liquidate the house?

  10. Frac says:

    Heya Guys,

    Quick couple of questions. What do you think of buying a house that has a sewer easement on the property? Also, how do appraisers determine the real value for a property when it sits on the edge of a town that borders are more expensive town? Are comps only used from the less expensive town, or are they used from both towns and simply determined by the distance from the property?

  11. frank says:

    “Hilario lost her job in the shipping industry, and now works part time at a mortgage company. Her husband’s hours were cut at the limousine company where he works as a driver. He now also drives a school bus.” and they bought a $468,000 house in Paramus??

    Evict them for being greedy and stupid.

  12. Schumpeter says:

    question (9)-

    If the mortgage is recourse, lenders will go after walkaway borrowers in many instances. Additionally, if a borrower has adequate liquid assets to cover (or partially cover) a payoff deficiency and applies for a short sale, the short sale could likely be rejected.

  13. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I’m sorry, but I’m having trouble mustering any sympathy for the Hilario/Montero situation.

    With a family income derived from a Limo Driver and a wife in the “Shipping Industry”…how did they qualify for a $470K Cape Cod on Midland Ave ??

    The 2 mortgages indicates No Downpayment, and the total monthly nut of $3700 should have been supported by a $140K Gross Income, and I’m being very liberal in my application of sound lending practices.

    They wanted to get the 3 kids in a good school system….they could have done that by renting at far less than 3 grand per month.

  14. Schumpeter says:

    Cash for Appliances? Hell, yeah:

    “So, as Washington hails Cash for Clunkers as the program that “saved the automobile business,” putting hundreds of thousands of new “green” vehicles on the road, Cash for Appliances just may very well be “the program that saved Christmas.” Just wait- it’s coming.

    And the real beauty of the program- all those empty refrigerator boxes make great houses for those struggling to make ends meet- as unemployment mounts, soaring past 10% by Christmas, for sure. Makeshift Hoovervilles for the 21st Century- but let’s call them Obamatowns.”


  15. John says:

    Hey Chi_fi, if this bond was a spice girl I would have to say it would be scary spice. There is always something to say about a bond whose price is less than the yield.

    AMBAC FINL GROUP INC DEB 9.37500% 08/01/2011
    Price (Ask) 51.000
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 56.910%

  16. Cindy says:


    Congratulations East Coast from the West Coast.

    Good luck in the series.

  17. 3b says:

    From yesterdays discussion about average property taxes reaching 15k in 2020.
    We are getting there alot quicker. The listing below is a 1940’s 3 bed/2 bath cape with taxes at $11,200.


  18. Secondary Market says:

    Bracing for my appraisal results today. I’m fairly confident the value will be met based on recent comps and the discounted sales price we got. Although, I planned for the worst and have a back out clause in the agreement If the value doesn’t come in. We’ll see…

    I’m ready for the onslaught of Phillies smack talking. It’s going to be a great series, Go Phils! Who’s with me?

  19. Schumpeter says:

    Look at all the fun stuff I missed over the weekend:

    “Perhaps what we’re really seeing is a business reacting to hidden deterioration of asset bases that are not known by investors and the public due to the legitimation of bogus accounting that happened this last March, but which is known by company executives!

    Ding! Ding! Ding!

    We have a winner. Citigroup needs money, and needs money badly. Moreover, there is no reason to believe this is all credit card related. In fact, there is every reason to believe Citigroup (and other banks) are in trouble on multiple fronts.”


  20. Schumpeter says:

    John (15)-

    You know you want to tap that strange.

  21. Painhrtz says:

    Secondary, based on my utter disdain for the fanbases of both franchises. Unless the seventh seal is broken an beezelbub hindelf swallows both teams,I will instead focus on hockey.

    signed lifelong Mets fan, and former attendee of a college near Philly

  22. John says:

    I am jones’ing, I want to but I refuse. Right now not buying a house and holding off stocks and bonds is very very hard. This is a short term pop, we will have a bit of a set back in 2010 as it is too much too soon. I am way way too long in bonds by % and by maturity. I just have to let the months roll by and it will all be cool. That is why I paid off my mortgage last week. Cleared out all my cash and I swore off margin. I was addicted to margin when it was 8% and I could buy Hartford, XL, Citi, Genworth etc. investment grade bonds at 16% or AIG, UIS or F at 40%. Now with Margin still close to 8% and good bonds at 7% my margin mojo is gone too. No cash and no margin keeps me from putting anymore junk in my trunk.

    When the next recession comes I will be buying again like crazy and then maybe pick up a Jets PSL at 40 cents on a dollar, a mcmansion and a 7 series at auction! Crash Baby Crash!!

    Schumpeter says:
    October 26, 2009 at 9:40 am
    John (15)-

    You know you want to tap that strange.

  23. Young Buck says:

    12. Schumpeter says:
    question (9)-

    If the mortgage is recourse, lenders will go after walkaway borrowers in many instances. Additionally, if a borrower has adequate liquid assets to cover (or partially cover) a payoff deficiency and applies for a short sale, the short sale could likely be rejected.

    Clot: Are mortgages typically recourse? Seems obvious banks would prefer making recourse loans. Any idea of the percentage of mortgages made recourse vs non-recourse? 50-50? 75/25? I assume non-recourse mortgages carry higher interest rates and/or more points?

  24. Danzud says:


    Thanks for the Yankee statement. Was at the game and definitely enjoyed it.

  25. d2b says:

    Cash for appliances may be one of the most useless govt. promotions ever. I would bet that an overwhelming majority of those that buy new appliances purchase because they need to replace something that is broken. I would bet that this percentage goes way up during a recession.

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [18] 2ndary

    I’m with you. Go Phils!!!

    [moved here from 6 year stint in CC, and married to lifelong Philadelphian. Even my 6Y0 once said “I’m a Philly Girl. I’ll Never Be a Jersey Girl.”]

    And Philly has lots of new fans this year, mostly residing in 6 states to the northeast of New York City.

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [23] young ‘un

    “Additionally, if a borrower has adequate liquid assets to cover (or partially cover) a payoff deficiency and applies for a short sale, the short sale could likely be rejected.”

    Well, that speaks to the need for proper asset protection planning, now doesn’t it?

  28. freedy says:

    this is why llc were invented

  29. chicagofinance says:

    Secondary Market says:
    October 26, 2009 at 9:33 am
    I’m ready for the onslaught of Phillies smack talking. It’s going to be a great series, Go Phils! Who’s with me?

    Sec: Serious Mets fan over here….I mostly won’t pay attention, but you have to go with the Philly team over the Yanks. It is a more likeable team. The Yanks are a band of mercenaries. I only respect Mariano and Jeter. However, there is a special place in hell for the Yankee fan.

    I think I’ve posted this in the past…..two step process to separate the wheat from the chaff of Yankee fans:
    (1) Did you ever see Mattingly place 1B?
    (2) Who is John Wettleland?

    All you need to know about Yankee fans is encapsulated by John Sterling and Michael Kay….Sterling is for the morons and Kay is for the smug pricks….equally offensive….

  30. meter says:

    “Mr. Obama added, “If anything, this debate underscores the necessity of passing comprehensive immigration reform and resolving the issue of 12 million undocumented people living and working in this country once and for all.””

    Obama seems hell-bent in turning me into a Republican.

  31. Secondary Market says:

    Right on, Nom. I expect this series to yield more arrests than the MOVE riots.

  32. DoughBoy says:

    27… Making sure they get everything offshore as fast as possible?

  33. still_looking says:

    meter, 30

    He’s gonna need more voters than that to get reelected.


  34. Raul V says:

    Franc No. 10 Sounds Like a place in Cedar Grove.

  35. Raul V says:

    Frac No. 10. is the sewer easement a straight drain to the public sewer system, or is there a drainage basin?? A drainage basin will collect pollutants from the water into the soil and surrounding vegatation.

    Just an FYI…

  36. chicagofinance says:

    Roubini from CNBC….

    I think he is spot on here, especially as you get toward the back end of this 8 minute segment…..market is at fair value; pricing in V-shaped recovery; next year, as we get more macro data, it will open the door for a correction should results fall short of expectations; I think he is sober here versus his typical dancing doom fest….

  37. chicagofinance says:

    Schumpeter says:
    October 26, 2009 at 7:06 am
    safe (2)-
    I nominate this as a candidate for post of the year.

    My submission:

    chicagofinance says:
    September 22, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    An actual commercial for TV…
    RE/MAX of New Jersey
    Outstanding Agents
    Outstanding Results

  38. make money says:


    All the technology available and these fools resort to checking each and every return by hand.

  39. DoughBoy says:

    Slow Monday? Where the hell is everyone?

  40. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Hey Raul…

    Were you looking at the possible purchase in Marlboro recently ??

    How did that play out ??

  41. Raul V says:

    No. 41

    We didn’t buy anything yet, the seller did not accept our offer and only countered with $15,000 below current asking, and I’m not going to overpay. So we move on! LOL

    Raul V

  42. still_looking says:

    getting whiplash looking at the Dow chart….



  43. NJGator says:

    Raul 42 – Another reason to hold off on Marlboro – they are in the middle of a tax revaluation. There’s no guarantee that the taxes on a given property will stay the same for next tax year. You might want to see where the new assessments shake out before making any offers.

  44. John says:

    A true Yankee fan would have seen a game in the old stadium, my first game I went to with my dad I got stuck behind a beam, would have seen a yankee game in shea when they were renovating old yankee stadium, would have been at the first game in old new yankee stadium, where Phil Rizzuto said there is only one Beam in new yankee stadium and that is Mayor Abe Beam. I shook Abe’s hand when I was nine years old and we were the same height!!!

    Would know the answer to this triva question, who hit the last grand slam in old yankee stadium, who also hit the first grand slam in newly renovated yankee stadium. (1970s)

    A little help perhaps, he only hit two grandslams in his career, played infield and had a cool nickname.

  45. Schumpeter says:

    chi (37)-

    At the end of this whole mess, I’ll be one of the few Re/Max owners left standing in this state. They sold so many damn offices, most of them are just cannibalizing each other and/or full of bad-to-mediocre agents they lured away from the Realogy/Weichert tier of garbage offices.

  46. Qwerty says:


    Home-buyer tax credit is administrative nightmare
    Get ready to wait: 2009 tax refunds will be delayed for months

    By Eva Rosenberg, MarketWatch

    LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Last November, J. Russell George, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration, warned the Internal Revenue Service that if they didn’t ask for documentation from people filing for the first-time home-buyer credit, there would be fraud. The IRS ignored the advice. The result?

    The IRS doled out about $620 million to ineligible filers.

  47. Jill says:

    chifi #29:

    1) Actually, I did see Mattingly play 1B (I think) in the early 1980’s.

    2) John Wetteland — former relief pitcher for the Yankees. True story — I used to cat-sit Wetteland’s cats. He lived in a high-rise in Fort Lee near the Shop-Rite at the time and I used to do some work on the side for the petsitting service I used myself. It was a huge apartment with very little in it but fitness equipment and TV. He used to leave ESPN on the TV for the cats while he and his wife were away. If I recall correctly, his cats used to puke a lot because I remember cleaning up a lot of puke off the parquet floors.

  48. Schumpeter says:

    John (22)-

    I hereby nominate you for CEO of Citigroup.

    “No cash and no margin keeps me from putting anymore junk in my trunk.”

  49. 3b says:

    #42 Well Done.

  50. Schumpeter says:

    Buck (23)-

    You’d be surprised how many non-recourse mortgages are out there (esp. on the commercial side). I don’t know anywhere that aggregates those stats, though.

  51. Schumpeter says:

    chi (37)-

    This is what I did when some putz candidate for town council came knocking at my door this weekend, wanting to “share” his plan for the town with me.

    He asked me if I was a Dem or Repug. I told him I was a zombie brain-eater:


  52. Schumpeter says:

    3b (52)-

    I say it’s closer to 60%.

  53. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [32] doughboy,

    Yes, and it is perfectly legal (if you pay your taxes).

  54. Kettle1 says:


    Ready to start our Chilean Nompound? ;)

  55. make money says:


    Every time someone finds a billioaire dead face down in his own pool first thing I think of is accidental drowning(sarcasm off)

  56. John says:

    My sister once rented her house to a Met, don’t remember who. Keith Hernandez, Darrol Strawberry and Dewight Gooden and a few other Mets all rented in Port Washington. They used to get all coked up and do crazy stuff, Funniest ever was parent teacher night in Portwashington when Darrol showed up to school as high as a kite to meet with his teacher.

    Goes to show how times have changed the LIRR Port Washington Line makes a shea stop the conductor would stop train there a few hours early if a Met was on board. Darrol and Dwight in 80’s actually took public transportation to play at Shea.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [30] meter

    “Obama seems hell-bent in turning me into a Republican.”

    Wow. WTF is going on?

    Meter and I agree on something?

    Stu and Gator about to be run out of Montclair for showing anti-party tendencies?

    Sastry complaining about taxes?

    I think someone in the District better ship over more hopeium. The stuff from 2008 seems to be wearing off.

  58. maylook1day says:

    still_looking #43 – probably just a reflection of some needed downtime on the ‘presses’. I’m sure they have to change parts every now and again.

  59. Secondary Market says:

    The beginning of the end for the Mets chronicled here:


  60. Stu says:

    I proudly have erected my elect the board sign in my front yard! We will lose by a 2 to 1 margin if we are lucky. The appointed board coalition has done a much better of job of fear-mongering and convincing the locale that it’s “for the children.”

  61. Young Buck says:

    51. Schumpeter says:
    Buck (23)-

    You’d be surprised how many non-recourse mortgages are out there (esp. on the commercial side). I don’t know anywhere that aggregates those stats, though.

    Thanks, Clot. What I was trying to get at, though, is how prevalent non-recourse mortgages are today. Are they (i) readily available to Joe Blow homebuyer, (ii) at least somewhat available from certain banks, or (iii) no chance in hell of getting a non-recourse mortgage today? If they are available, do they usually have a higher rate and/or require more points? Also, what effect does the fact that FHA is backing 99% (or whatever it actually is) of new mortgages have? I guess if FHA is backing your mortgage then the bank won’t really care if it’s non-recourse, right?

  62. 3b says:

    Hey gator, $12,800 on your multi-family in Montclair (which I agree is ridiculous), but how about the listing below? Taxes are over 10k on this 3 bed 1 bath gem.


  63. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [57] make

    Have you noticed that there have been a fair number of such deaths recently?

    And SAS is never around at the time. Hmmm.

  64. 3b says:

    Here is another one, asking price is 699K. taxes incredibly are over 17K a year!!!!


  65. 3b says:

    #62 Do you think having an elected BOE would make a difference?

  66. Young Buck says:

    28. freedy says:
    this is why llc were invented

    I don’t think that’s right…but someone please feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I believe they are for asset protection, i.e. in case of a lawsuit relating to the property. You can deed the property into the LLC, but the mortgage is still in your name. In order to have the mortgage in the LLC’s name, either (i) the LLC needs to have credit history and be approved for a mortgage like any other company or individual, or (ii) you need to personally guarantee the mortgage (which would obviously defeat the purpose if you’re trying to get around the recourse thing).

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] kettle,

    First things first.

    1. Start and fund the offshore development company that will acquire the Nompound. Shares for each investor to be held in offshore trusts.

    2. Get a letter ruling that says investing acquisition funds into US debt for a temporary period does not constitute “engaging in a trade or business in the U.S.” Repatriate the proceeds to purchase US debt and pay no taxes because of the portfolio interest rule.

    3. [privileged]

    4. Start scouting for a low land tax, politically stable jurisdiction (which used to be the US but is a lot less so now). Chile is a good possibility.

    5. Start teaching your kids the language of said jurisdiction.

  68. still_looking says:

    Nom, 66

    Why does this never happen to some people that I know who deserve it??


  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [69] young one

    Essentially correct. The LLC is of no use except to give a corporate veil, not for what one must do under the other scenario, which is to “equity strip” oneself.

    FWIW, looking poor through self-equity stripping is going to be a huge business for estate planners and private wealth managers.

  70. still_looking says:

    3b 67

    …but the granite….the granite! *salivates*…..mmmmmm and stainless steel…. oh, oh, oh….stainless steel appliances!… *gah*

    *rushes to cold shower*



  71. Shore Guy says:

    “Sastry complaining about taxes?”


    If I recall correctly, he was all for high taxes, just not his own. Therefore, he is still a liberal. Once he starts seeking lower taxes for everyone, we can welcome into the fold.

  72. Young Buck says:

    75. Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    [69] young one

    Essentially correct. The LLC is of no use except to give a corporate veil, not for what one must do under the other scenario, which is to “equity strip” oneself.

    FWIW, looking poor through self-equity stripping is going to be a huge business for estate planners and private wealth managers.

    Thanks, Nom. I’ve never heard of equity striping. Reading up on it now.

  73. ruggles says:

    63 – I thought nonrecourse was regulated by the states. so certain places require loans to be nonrecourse. unless its a refi then it becomes recourse even in those states. of course I really know nothing about this but that’s what I’ve heard. no idea if NJ is nonrecourse.

  74. Schumpeter says:

    make (65)-

    Look at state-chartered banks and other small/mid-tier lenders. They have an awful lot of this sludge on their books.

    Plenty of insurance companies, university endowments and pension funds have backed done of the worst commercial RE lending…all in the guise of LPs and other syndicated ventures.

    It will take them under.

  75. Schumpeter says:

    buck (75)-

    John knows a couple of equity strippers who work at Scores.

  76. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [78] schump,

    That is actually a great explanation for the equity strip: When the IRS or a creditor asks where the money went, simply reply “I blew it on strippers, h00kers, b00ze, and blow. The rest of it I spent foolishly.”

  77. make money says:

    Equity stripping is a patriotic duty and must be performed quaterly to support our consumer based economy. Anything else is un-civilized.

  78. Painhrtz says:


    Let me know if you need a sniper to run your paramilitary force in said expatrioted land. Plus I have the scientific skills to start a super-soldier genetics program. Just saying ;)

    Wife is a crack shot as well.

  79. Schumpeter says:

    You don’t need your own personal army in Chile.

    Argentina? That’s a different story.

  80. Stu says:

    3b (68): “Do you think having an elected BOE would make a difference?”

    Probably not, but at least we would become familiar with the members of the board and what their stances are as well as qualifications. The last appointment made by the mayor was the wife of his largest mayoral campaign fundraiser.

    We would also get to vote on the budget, but that doesn’t really change anything as the ultra-liberal and wealthy residents in Montclair (think Corzine) would never vote it down. Quite honestly, our BOE and probably most in the state, spend money incredibly ineffeciently, just like every other government organization. Perhaps an elected board might cause the BOE to actually pay attention as they would not get reelected if they continued to suck.

    The whole point is moot anyway though. The black leaders in Montclair have helped spread the fear as well, even though it is that group which would probably benefit the most from an elected board.

  81. poor guy says:

    Housing Credit Will Likely Be Phased Out, ISI Says


  82. John says:

    At one of the largest banks in world that is the name of the Sarbanes Oxley Operational Risk Event System.

    Couple of metrotech italian programers having some fun named the system SCORES

    Schumpeter says:
    October 26, 2009 at 1:32 pm
    buck (75)-

    John knows a couple of equity strippers who work at Scores.

  83. John says:

    Messed it up

    Sarbanes Compliance Operational Risk Event System – SCORES

  84. Stu says:

    “Housing Credit Will Likely Be Phased Out, ISI Says”

    Personally, I find this hard to believe, but support the decision greatly. For someone like me who is still waiting to purchase a home, prices should begun dropping again and there will be less competition among buyers. Bring it!

  85. Painhrtz says:

    I know Clot but just want to make my services available if needed.

    Besides I would rather play my fiddle in the US while it is burning anyway

  86. Kettle1 says:

    Pain 81

    The NSA/CIA/FBI/DHS would like to thank you for your offered contribution and is happy to add you to the List.

  87. 3b says:

    #83 Undestood, more the point than anything else. I dared to ask some relevant questions a few years ago, before voters approved a massive spending referendum. To this day whenever I see the former BOE president on the train I get dirty looks. And ironically all the big cheerleaders on the BOE who urged residents to vote yes, have since now all left, including that President. Interesting now that are taxes are through the roof;just saying.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    Republican challenger leads among press endorsements
    Here’s the latest count when it comes to the gubernatorial candidates collecting endorsements from New Jersey’s daily newspapers.

    Christie 6, Corzine 5, and Daggett 1.

    The New York Post Monday became the sixth newspaper to endorse Republican challenger Chris Christie for governor, describing him as the “best hope” for New Jersey and “a trailblazing anti-corruption former U.S. attorney, Christie offers the best hope for a long overdue end to the state’s never-ending tax hikes.”

    “Let’s face it,” the endorsement continues, “Corzine just hasn’t delivered. In his 2005 campaign, he vowed to boost property-tax rebates by 40 percent over four years and it rewrite the state’s antiquated property-tax structure. We’re still waiting — on both counts.”

    Over the weekend, Christie garnered endorsements from the The Press of Asbury Park, the Camden Courier Post and The Press of Atlantic City. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was endorsed by The Record of Hackensack and The Trenton Times. Overall, four of Christie’s endorsements have come from Gannett chain newspapers, including the Home News Tribune of East Brunswick and the Courier-Post of Bridgewater. Corzine also has the support of The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and El Diario Le Prensa, the Hispanic daily. Independent Chris Daggett is endorsed by The Star-Ledger of Newark. He is meeting with the Trentonian editorial board Monday.



  89. 3b says:

    #87 Me too. I just do not see that happening, unless it is perhaps some behind the scenes dealing to come up with some other give away.

  90. make money says:

    The Treasury Department has uncovered more than 50 instances where employees of the Internal Revenue Service illegally or inappropriately claimed credits for first-time homebuyers.
    In an interview with FOX Business Network’s Neil Cavuto, J. Russell George, the inspector general for tax administration at Treasury, said there are 53 cases involving IRS employees and that number could rise.
    “In all honesty this is an interim report,” George said. “I expect that the number would be much larger than that number.”

    Straight out of the playbook of Timmy Geitner.

  91. PGC says:

    #83 Stu,

    You posted an article a few weeks back from those leaders. While there was some unjustified fear mongering, there was one big valid point they made. Little hazy on the specifics, but it was along the lines of; people going after transportation in the budget to break up the magnet system and therefore, bring back segregation by the back door.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [81] pain

    “Plus I have the scientific skills to start a super-soldier genetics program. Just saying”

    I don’t know whether to be impressed or worried.

  93. Stu says:

    PGC (95):

    We still have a federally mandated need to integrate. No one I know among the petitioners supports dismantling of the magnet structure. And even if we were to try to do it, I don’t know of any other method to make this happen. Our magnets are a joke anyway. All of the schools teach the same thing.

  94. Randy says:

    Denninger out with a big red flag today about possible credit market seize-up in the coming weeks …

    Surmises that banks taking deep discounts to sell houses to all-cash buyers instead of anyone that needs financing as a sign they don’t see the credit market as reliable enough to last even until closing! the Las Vegas story we read about on this blog 1-2 weeks ago was case-in-point. a couple with great credit history and 15% downpayment that needed financing could not find a house to buy because lenders were so busy funneling houses to all-cash buyers at deep discounts.

    in other words, what do the banks know that we don’t?

  95. Stu says:

    I think the most unfair thing that occurs in our town is the way the magnet schools are chosen for your children. The majority of the black folks want their kids to go to Nishaune which is nearest to the black area of town. All of the white folks want their kids to go to the various other schools around town. Instead, the white folk have almost no say as to which magnet their child will attend and the black folks have their pick of the litter that they choose not to exercise. In the end, both sides end up pissed off. Isn’t integration a wonderful thing :P

  96. chicagofinance says:

    I just noticed on my cable upper tier that I have sandwiched between the Green Network and Nick Kidz or something….


    any favorites here to watch?

  97. Painhrtz says:

    Ket I think by being a sometimes participant on this forum you get added to the watch list by default

    Nom – C’mon man bear pig can be an effective fighting weapon. Unfortunately the lab equipment necessary would probably bankrupt you, but it is south Amercia there are ways to make large wads of cash.

  98. Painhrtz says:

    Chifi – I like great planes, Top ten is on all the time also.

  99. Schumpeter says:

    stu (83)-

    Funny how all communistic regimes- large and small- spread fear among minorities then exploit that fear to the fullest.

  100. Nicholas says:

    “Plus I have the scientific skills to start a super-soldier genetics program. Just saying”

    The Vtech 80-073800 is an awesome addition to your super-soldier program.


  101. Nicholas says:

    Notice the similar characteristics to this futuristic weapon system.


    Start working on them in the cradle.

  102. Kettle1 says:


    consider me the jack of all trades. that sniper quiz was a joke.

  103. Kettle1 says:


    you have to break a few eggs to make an omlet. if your arent to concerned about the broken eggs, we can get a lot of the equipment dirt cheap.

    With some of the companies going out of business i have see hitech biotech equipment going for pennies as creditors sell it off as fast as possible

  104. poor guy says:

    Nelson Says Senate to Extend, Reduce Homebuyer Credit


  105. Painhrtz says:

    sniper quiz was pretty poor. what do you expect from a discovery channel quiz.

    It’s the would you like fries with that weapons system. Nicholas Remember the military wants killer$ not thinkers.

  106. poor guy says:

    Under the plan reported by ISI, home buyers would get $8,000 if they close by the first quarter in 2010, $6,000 if they close by the second quarter, $4,000 by the third quarter and $2,000 by the fourth quarter.


  107. NJGator says:

    PGC 95 – Nowhere in that article did they point to any factual proof that the elect the board coalition was in favor of dismantling the magnet system. There was not even any circumstantial proof in that regard included in the article. All there was was innuendo and nothing attributed to a single individual.

    School integration in Montclair in mandated by court order. Even if the magnet system was dimantled, busing would still be required to integrate. The argument is a canard and is meant to stoke fear in the 4th ward.

    I also liked how the article spoke of fears that an elected school board would be all white. Even though the board would be elected by the same people who have consistently voted in at least 2 African American representatives to the council in every election since 1984. In the most recent election, the largest vote getter for an at-large council seat was Roger Terry, who is a former deputy police chief and an African American.

  108. Painhrtz says:

    Ket it is the sad state of the sciences industry. I saw a relatively new HP HPLC-MS listed for almost nothing at auctions when reviewing materials lists for a friend’s business. Scary you would think HP would gobble them back up and donate to universities. Get the tax break and drive industry to bigger and better instrumentation as they always have.

    Alas, I’m just a lowly bookworm what would I know.

  109. 3b says:

    #112 So the longer you wait quarter wise in 2010, the bigger the price drops since the subsidy will ultimatley be removed.

    They can keep their subsidy, I will take the price declines.

  110. NJGator says:

    3b 64 – That’s atrocius! The pictures, as well as the taxes.

    I actually sympathize the most with my senior citizen neighbors. They are all paying over $15k/year now on homes that will sell for less that $500k. I will have to teach some of them (or at least their kids) how to file an appeal for next year.

  111. NJGator says:

    No, nothing suspicious about this at all. Carry on, folks…

    Madoff associate had heart attack, drowned in pool

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – A man accused of making more than $7 billion off the investment schemes of jailed financial manager Bernard Madoff drowned after having a heart attack, authorities said Monday.

    Jeffry Picower, 67, was found at about noon Sunday by his wife, Barbara, at the bottom of a pool at their oceanside mansion. She pulled him from the water with help from a housekeeper. He died a short time later at a nearby hospital.

    An autopsy conducted Monday found he suffered a heart attack and drowned, said Dr. Michael Bell, chief medical examiner for Palm Beach County. The death has been ruled accidental, and the heart attack was brought on by heart disease. Toxicology tests are pending.

    “Obviously, we won’t have results for a couple of weeks but we don’t anticipate them showing anything,” Bell said. “If they do and it shows something unusual, we will amend the death certificate to reflect that.”

    Police had been investigating the death, pending the autopsy results. They now say the case is closed.

    “Right now, that’s it for us,” said Janet Kinsella, a spokeswoman for the Palm Beach Police Department.

    Picower had been accused by Madoff investors of being the biggest beneficiary of Madoff’s schemes. In a lawsuit to recover Madoff’s assets, trustee Irving Picard demanded Picower return more than $7 billion in bogus profits. Picard has said the litigation could continue.


  112. 3b says:

    #116 Scary but true, and those taxes are today, 2009/10.

  113. NJGator says:

    Nom 59 – We have always been realists, so we are defacto Republicans as far as our neighbors are concerned.

  114. Stu says:

    Defacto Republicans is stretching the truth. Our neighbors probably think we are nazis.

  115. Safeashouses says:

    #5 clot,

    Thanks for the praise.

  116. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [120] stu

    Stu the Jew, nazi????

    Somehow, I am not seeing it.

  117. Shinjirarenai, desunai? Honto ni, bikurishita!

  118. schabadoo says:

    “Mr. Obama added, “If anything, this debate underscores the necessity of passing comprehensive immigration reform and resolving the issue of 12 million undocumented people living and working in this country once and for all.””

    Obama seems hell-bent in turning me into a Republican.

    You do know this was Bush’s immigration policy, right?

    I really am anxious to sign a comprehensive immigration bill as soon as I possibly can.

  119. Safeashouses says:

    I got lost in west orange today, and then got more lost and drove into orange. I felt like chevy chase in Vacation.

  120. Painhrtz says:

    More fuel to the O and Pelosi we want to lose our jobs tour


  121. NJGator says:

    Shore – this one’s for you:

    Wayward pilots were working on their laptops

    WASHINGTON – Two Northwest Airlines pilots told federal investigators that they were going over scheduling using their laptop computers in violation of company policy while their plane overflew their Minneapolis destination by 150 miles.


  122. safeashouses says:

    #127 NJGator

    Maybe they were reading this blog?

  123. NJGator says:

    Safe 128 – I’m thinking they were playing Bejeweled Blitz.

  124. safeashouses says:

    #129 gator,

    Not Farmville?

  125. Shore Guy says:

    I guess they need a story besides being asleep. Why looking at a computer would prevent them from hearing numerous attempts at radio communication with the c0ckpit escapes me. Watching a movie with headphones on makes more sense.

  126. james says:

    Well it is clear that the country is being looted. The American people are shamefully unprepared. Like SAS said, start looking under rocks for the truth. Here is what Ive found.

    “O.K. everyone,I have been tracking this all too familiar themed scam for weeks.

    The Milleniuem Developement Group, Inc. astroturf for Sachs newest stock market mutal fund to rake in billions.

    The U.N. website has a disclaimer that this is NOT affiliated with the 1992 Millenium Declaration Treaty and the the United Nations and its State Members so not endorse this Private corporation.

    They incorporated the Utilities and energy sector in the Cap and Trade Bill into a PRIVATE company. Guess who is going to head this tax scam? GE/Immelt, Gore.

    Private Corporations can be sued.

    Rockefeller/FDR = The Federal Reserve Bank. A Private Corporation. Take takpayer money via trumped up legisaltion (which by the way, Jeffery Sachs wrote) and invest it in venture capital mutual funds and make billions of dollars on the returns. We get squat in return except more taxes.

    Its astroturf for the 501(c) non-profits, so they have a tax shelter via “Trust Funds” and a means to implement it via the USAID. This is the branch that Kennedy created to give foriegn aid to disaster areas outside the country and include UNICEF, Americorps, etc. FDR DID THE EXACT SAME THING WITH THESE GROUPS IN AFRICA AND THEY ARE DOING IT AGAIN.

    GIIN launched this week. Its Bill Clinton’s group. Chaired by JP Morgan, Ford, and Macaurther. Bill and Hilary want to be on the big guns list.”

  127. Shore Guy says:

    “Obama seems hell-bent in turning me into a Republican”

    Walk towards the light.

  128. james says:

    Now, it appears that Comrade is setting up the nompound overseas. I have entertained that thought but travel maybe prohibited unless you escape in time. If you have family, a paid off home, and a desire to protect the Constitution that really isnt a viable option.

    Check out this Compound.

  129. Barbara says:

    my theory on those pilots? Orgy.

  130. Sean says:

    re: #127 – Too bad the old days it would be lapdance instead of laptop.

    The pilots using laptops can be proven no? Can’t they just check the boot records etc?

  131. safeashouses says:

    #135 Barbara,

    That would be the most respectable choice.

  132. SG says:

    Is the U.S. Now In a Lost Decade?

    The U.S. Has Been Here Before

    Koo also said the U.S. has been in a severe banking crisis before, and he’s not talking the Great Depression. He said that U.S. banks have been bankrupt throughout the nation’s history —although the general population didn’t know it at the time.

    Specifically, Koo said that the New York Fed concluded that the Latin American crisis of 1982 was the worst bank crisis in modern U.S. history.

    “Our conclusion was that seven out of eight U.S. money center banks were actually underwater,” because they were overexposed to Latin American banks, Koo says, adding “everyone from Mexico to the southern point of Chile went bankrupt.”

    The U.S. went into action. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker importuned foreign banks, including Japanese banks, to keep their credit facilities wide open to U.S. banks in order to avoid a wholesale collapse in the banking system, “knowing full well these American banks were bankrupt.” But, “we could not tell the outside world how bad the situation” was, Koo says.

    And Volcker ordered U.S. banks in 1982 to keep lending to “Mexico’s dictators” and banks, so its banks didn’t completely fall into the drink, dragging U.S. banks with them, as they were already “underwater” and near “collapse,” Koo says.

    Koo says that the Fed knew at the time that U.S. banks were “bankrupt,” but could not publicly discuss how bad the situation was, because “the next day they would be bankrupt” due to a run on the banks.

    Koo says that instead Fed officials concocted a party line that the banks were dealing with “good debt on their books.”

  133. theo says:

    There seems to be a few fantasies on this board about packing it all up and moving to Chile WTSHTF.

    Let’s all just keep a few things in mind:

    While the country is relatively well run and well off compared to their neighbors, the majority of the population is still dirt poor. While the poor here will kill you to keep up a standard of living they could not afford otherwise, for your shoes, iPod, car etc., the poor down there will kill you for a loaf of bread to feed their families. Subsistence living for many despite the progress.

    Anecdote: When I was down there in May, my wife’s cousin related how he was in a checkout line in a supermarket in Talca and the woman two people ahead of him was sliced in the stomach with her intestines falling out onto the floor all for the equivalent of about 5 US dollars. (I tell this more for how disgusting it was, clearly we have more senseless crime than they do.)

    While most of you are just kidding or at least talking about living in some isolated region away from the people, please don’t kid yourselves. Unless you have some personal connection to the government or police, you will not be safe and will stick out amongst the local population. And anyone who has ever taken a wrong turn off of route 5 south in the outskirts of Santiago may want to rethink the idea of not wanting a personal army. That place makes the worst sections of Brooklyn or the Bronx look like the Hamptons.

  134. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [124] schab,

    Yeah, and look how well that was received. And what does it say of the One if he is promoting the same policy as his hated predecessor?

    IMHO, immigration is an issue that should rile and divide dems as much as reps. It is a class issue, and I find it curious that party identity means that a not insignificant proportion of those advocating amnesty, legalization, whateveryouwanttocallit, will actually be hurt by it.

  135. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [134] james,

    Ultimately, if the Nompound concept is successful, there would be nompounds in a few countries. But I need either a larger (and wealthier) group, or to hit the lottery.

    As for the guy with the perimeter fences, I am not sure what his goal is (I didn’t listen and watched only about a minute of it). If you have a location so indefensible that you need to invest tens of thousands in perimeter defense, perhaps you are in the wrong location. I would have settled for the chain link with razor wire as the outer defense, with hardened firing points inside, and, ultimately, a panic room with escape tunnel rather than all that cinderblock and PT fencing.

  136. SG says:

    For earlier post use the PPT while listening to Audio

  137. 2010 Buyer says:

    Can Sell a House for $500…..

    You might wonder if there’s an easy way to identify a really bad real estate market. Detroit can help. How about when you can’t auction houses off with a starting bid of $500? Yep, that’s pretty bad. We all know that things are truly awful in Detroit, but this answers the question: just how bad?


  138. 2010 Buyer says:

    Meant to say CAN’T sell a house

  139. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [126] pain,

    “Health insurers posted a 2.2 percent profit margin last year, placing them 35th of 53 industries on the Fortune 500 list. As is typical, other health sectors did much better — drugs and medical products and services were both in the top 10.

    The railroads brought in a 12.6 percent profit margin. Leading the list: network and other communications equipment, at 20.4 percent.

    HealthSpring, the best performer in the health insurance industry, posted 5.4 percent. That’s a less profitable margin than was achieved by the makers of Tupperware, Clorox bleach and Molson and Coors beers”

    So, does that mean we nationalize Tupperware and Coors next?

    I remember an old Yacov Smirnoff schtick where he orders a light beer in NYC and was asked what kind; he replied “oh, the usual state-approved light beer will do.”

  140. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [139] theo

    Hear that Kettle? Maybe Chile is out.

    Time to start looking at Costa Rica again? Or my personal fave–Western Canada (with a Dominican passport probably).

  141. NJGator says:

    Barbara – I’m thinking maybe they just didn’t want to go to Minnesota. Which is totally understandable. My verbal pre-nup with Stu included the clause that he would never make me move there (his company is headquartered in the twin cities).

    The rest of it consisted of a single clause – ‘I get everything. You get nothing. Sign here.’

  142. schabadoo says:

    Yeah, and look how well that was received. And what does it say of the One if he is promoting the same policy as his hated predecessor?

    It means corporations want it. It’s not a party issue.

    low salaries = more profits

    It’s like the H1B visas foisted on us.

  143. james says:

    Yeah, he is in the hills of Tennesee. Not sure why he thought it was necessary. He said he built it as a buffer and has hardened firing positions on the inside. He worked for the Fed and I think led a militia unit in Tenn. His videos are worth watching. His primary concern was roving groups of hungry citizens.

  144. yikes says:

    still catching up from the wknd, sorry if this has been discussed … but how inflated is this garbage?


    anyone who has lived in NYC know these people pump up their #’s to feel important. im not buying any of this crap

  145. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [150] schab

    “It means corporations want it. It’s not a party issue.”

    precisely. So why do so many dems want it?

    low salaries = more profits

    See above

    It’s like the H1B visas foisted on us.

    So what am I missing here? If the One is doing what Bush did, or at least trying to get to the same place, then he is being like Bush, which was something that I thought he was trying NOT to be, which was why everyone loved him?

  146. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [151] James

    If he is worried about roving bands, he has to be in an area that will have a lot of them, which means lots of people and little agriculture. The nompound will have agriculture and will be in a rural area.

    I’m sure he has good ideas but that is a bunker, and the nompound is intended to be something more than a bunker. IMHO, a few well-placed shots over the heads of approaching hordes of hungry zombies will keep them distant. And there are far cheaper (and just as effective) perimeter defenses than stockade fences.

  147. Kettle1 says:


    By the time a “real” need for a Nompound arises, the behaior seen in argentina and chile will likely be wide spread whether you talk about the US europe, where ever.

    But hey i love western canada!!!!


    The way i see it. Playing king of the hill in your own litle castle is a very dangerous game. It only takes 1 few creative people to put you and now sieged castle in a very precarious position. Time and numbers are against you as assuming you have enough desirable goods (food, money, women) behind the walls to be worth fighting for, then you will most likely be overwhelmed.

    I beleieve the name of the game is “walk softly and carry a big stick”. Harder the building in non-obvious ways, and a secure escape route and the firepower and will to rapidly and decisively deter any opportunist who tries to test you.

    Such a shown of force in that manner is more likely to successfully deter without drawing attention to a “castle”.

    In such a situation a building or food stash is most likely not worth your life in a dragout knock down wild west confrontation.

    Such conflicts are often wasteful and messy. I cant find the stats, but even average training still leaves people firing 10 rounds for every one that his a target. So even in a minor confrontation with a few people you could potentially see a few hundred rounds fired.
    be decisive when forced to fight, bluff when possible, live to fight another day

  148. Essex says:

    125. Essex county, home to the very rich and the very poor. Extremes.

  149. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [149] gator

    “My verbal pre-nup with Stu”

    I may not be much of a lawyer, but I think I can break that one in court.

  150. Barbara says:

    149. Gator,
    lol is it the weather? It would be for me, I’m having a hard enough time with NJ winters.

  151. Essex says:

    155. Head for the hills then. family land in the boonies of So. Central PA.

  152. Barbara says:

    A tale of two cities… It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
    and something from The Great Gatsby that I can’t remember *here*

  153. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [155] kettle,

    Agreed on most, except that your hardened house is little different than the Tenn. compound. A hardened building suggests there is something there to protect.

    My philosophy is to hide in plain sight. Give hordes a reason to think you aren’t even there; if the building is visible from a road, make the visible part look dilapitated. Some rusting cars out front make it look redneck trash. And the most valuable crops are those nearest the house or your well-hidden sniper observation posts, and screened by corn or wheat so that your field doesn’t look worth raiding.

    As for perimeter defenses, hidden trenches and pongee sticks are gonna make a comeback.

  154. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Reid Sidesteps Whether Democrats Have 60 Votes for ‘Public Option’ and Tax on ‘Cadillac’ Plans

    Posted October 26, 2009, 7:11 P.M. ET

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) announced Oct. 26 that he will bring a health reform bill to the Senate floor that includes a government-run insurance plan, but sidestepped questions about whether it and a provision to tax high-cost health plans will garner the needed 60 votes.

    The move toward including the “public option” in the Senate’s health bill also will cost Senate Democrats any chance of support from Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)—the only Republican to vote for any of the five health bills emerging from the House or Senate committees.

    Several Democrats also have expressed concern about the bill, with some not only objecting to the inclusion of the public option, but also to the 40 percent excise tax on health insurance premiums in excess of $8,000 for individuals and $21,000 for families. The excise tax is paid by insurers.

    To appease Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats ahead of the Finance Committee’s markup of its bill (S. 1796), Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) agreed to allow for a higher threshold of $9,850 for individuals and $26,000 for families in cases where insurance premiums are higher because someone is employed in a high-risk profession or is a retiree over age 55 and not yet receiving Medicare.

    But Schumer and Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) have all been vocal in calling for even higher thresholds to ensure that middle-class households are less likely to be affected by the tax.

  155. Kettle1 says:


    Re Hardened house:

    ICF (Insulated Concrete Forms). They look like normal homes but are built with 8, 10, or 12 inch think concrete filling the hollow forms. The building now looks like normal, but all the exterior walls are 12 inch concrete and essentially immune to small arms.

    just one of many ways a “hardened” house done properly is indistinguishable from a common house….

  156. Kettle1 says:


    As for perimeter defenses, hidden trenches and pongee sticks are gonna make a comeback.

    people forget that the military’s goal is not to kill but to wound. a wounded soldier takes up much more resources then a dead one.

    hidden trenches and “jungle” type traps excel at this. In a 3rd world nation or a 1st world falling apart, a broken ankle or puncture wound can be a life threatening injury if they do not have ready access to medical care.

    Russia had a problem in Afghanistan with their landmines being to deadly and had to reduce the explosive load by almost half in order for the end result to be a severely wounded yet living soldier

  157. Kettle1 says:


    dont forget dual purpose. ICF construction greatly reduces utility requirements and sound loads as well. it has a 2-3% cost premium which is usual paid for by the utility savings in 2 – 3 years

  158. Essex says:

    My place is very defend-able. I am happy to say. My hood full of like-minded folks some of which might have had compulsory IMF experience. My best pal on the street is a cop. I feel safe here. Unless a dirty bomb hits. Then all bets are off.

  159. james says:

    Com, Kettle,

    I also think its worth noting that these conditions wouldnt be achieved through dollar collapse alone. There would also have to be other unforseens as the General said. Possible false flag, martial law, war, pandemic etc. Apparently, the psyop is to make you feel isolated. Eventually they will cut off the internet, utilities etc. They will create the crisis then offer the solution.

    The last place you want to be is in the city. That is going to be a nightmare between lack of resources and crime.

    It all sound crazy I know but its not my words. If you would have told me 3 years ago that the dollar was going to collapse I wouldnt believe it either.

  160. Homer says:

    Need advise. Made an offer on a bank owned property. I have an approval for an FHA mortgage through BOA. My realator called me the next day and told me the bank is requiring a pre approval through there rinky dink 3rd party bank. This bank will not pre apprvoe me as I am 6 points lower than there requirements. I even tried offering if my financing falls through they can keep my deposit. While its only 3.5% it is still a way for them to cover themselves. Anyone have any ideas or suggestions on how I can get the bank to entertain my offer. My wife and I love the house and it has everything we need, in an area we love. There are not others like this in the area…

  161. PGC says:

    “Obama seems hell-bent in turning me into a Republican”

    This is the group I want to sit down and talk immigration with.


  162. lostinny says:

    169 Homer

    What if you offer more of a down payment?

  163. 3b says:

    6 points? What is that?

  164. Shore Guy says:

    Faizabad Journal
    Afghan Election Rests on the Backs of Donkeys


    And the NJ election rests wit @$$es.

  165. serenity now says:

    Re #67/ # 73/# 116
    The house being discussed has a sub-dividable lot.
    Regardless , River Edge taxes are ridiculous.

  166. 3b says:

    #139 Never realized Chile was that bad. Always thought it was fairly prosperous with a low poverty rate.

  167. 3b says:

    #174 They are ridiculous, and gettting worse. I could give many more examples. The sad thing is just a few short years ago we had one of the lowest property taxes in Bergen Co, and good schools. Out of contrrol referendum spending approved by clueless voters have destroyed that.

  168. Barbara says:

    175. 3b,
    like all of south america, Chile is comprised of a european upper class and an indigenous underclass with very little in between.

  169. Homer says:

    I offered more but they want a pre approval through there bank. They are being sticklers about it.
    172- my fico score is 6 points so I paid a few hundred down on 3 of my cc so hopefully that will bring me back up to meet there standards.

  170. Shore Guy says:


    It sounds like Spring lake and Montclair.

  171. Shore Guy says:


    What happened in KC? I hear the show is cancelled.

  172. NJGator says:

    176 3b – The California of Bergen County?

  173. NJGator says:

    Shore – did you see my post the other day? We’ll be around the days you were inquiring about.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    Gosh, I hope patty and the kids are okay.


    Bruce Springsteen canceled a performance scheduled for Monday night in Kansas City due to what the Sprint Center arena calls a death in his “immediate” family.

    The cancellation was announced in a statement less than two hours before Springsteen and the E Street Band were to take the stage. No additional information was released.

  175. Shore Guy says:


    I will e-mail early next week.

  176. Shore Guy says:


    POSTED: 6:01 pm CDT October 26, 2009
    UPDATED: 7:42 pm CDT October 26, 2009

    KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band concert in Kansas City was canceled on Monday due to the death of a road crew member, officials said.

    The concert was set to begin at 7:30 p.m. Monday at the downtown Sprint Center.

    All tickets will be refunded at the point of purchase, Sprint Center officials said.

    Police told KMBC that a 34-year-old member of the road crew died at the InterContinental Hotel at the Plaza. The death is not suspicious, police said.

    “Bruce and The Band deeply appreciate the understanding of our Kansas City audience and look forward to returning at the earliest opportunity,” Sprint officials said in a news release.

  177. Shore Guy says:

    As awful as i is to lose a coworker or parent or sibling, I am glad to hear it does not seem to be one of his children. As a parent, I can’t even begin to grasp how horrid that would be.

  178. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [168] james

    Agreed. It was the prospect of urban unrest and, later, pandemic, that had me thinking about a sanctuary property.

    In fact, the Nompound, envisioned as I did, put a lower premium on perimeter security because of (1) cost v. probability of need, and (2) overall utility.

    In the end, I felt that distance was quite sufficient for dealing with the urban hordes. The real risk would come from local rurals whose meth labs aren’t supporting them anymore. In that case, the better security is local militia, who can essentially police a wider area and provide a better early warning net vs. outsiders, and help take down the known local troublemakers.

    Hillary was right. It takes a village. In this case, a heavily armed, well-organized village with its own militia.

  179. Shore Guy says:


    So, go for lots of land with a dwelling on a high point?

  180. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [187] shore,

    I try not to think about that. God, I try.

    I still find myself getting up in the night and checking on them. I know that I am subconciously thinking that I can somehow ward off bad things, simply by standing there.

    Simply by thinking to myself “not on my watch.”

    Would that it would work that way.

  181. Schumpeter says:

    gator (113)-

    You gotta get the hell out of that town.

  182. Shore Guy says:


    I know what you mean. I still look in on them every night. Whenever I do, I tink back to when they were newborn and I could sit and watch them sleep for hours.

  183. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [189] shore

    Decent amount of land, with difficult approaches and good site lines from the house is sufficient. Access to water also important. But again, perimeter defense is only part of the story.

    Politically, must be in solidly republican area to insure against future tax shocks, and in a reasonably pro-gun state (Mass. is out on that score, and Jersey not much better). Not much good if you can’t keep it or defend it.

    Finally, there were the other Nompound criteria, the stuff that made Spam tease me about turning it into a timeshare. Gotta be able to enjoy and use it, otherwise it is a really expensive insurance policy against Armageddon.

  184. NJGator says:

    Clot 191 – Stu says you’re right.

  185. Schumpeter says:

    james (168)-

    But first, a false dollar rally will be staged in order to get all the saps (you and me) on board. Then, TPTB pulls the rug out from under.

    I think today may have been step 1 in that rally.

  186. Schumpeter says:

    homer (169)-

    If that house is really hot stuff at the right price, the bank should only be entertaining cash offers. If they are entertaining buyers who need financing, the first thing you know is, it’s overpriced. Second, even if it’s overpriced…if the house works for you, tell them that your offer is your offer, tell them you will close ASAP and give them 24 hours to decide whether they would like a buyer for their overpriced prison of debt, or whether they would like the privilege of heating and maintaining an unsellable hunk of shit through a long, cold, miserable and expensive Winter.

  187. Schumpeter says:

    barb (177)-

    And how, exactly, does Chile differ from NJ?

  188. sas says:


    interesting post on the UN.
    keep an eye on security council.

    now omama does the rotating chair at UN security council, in complete violation of constitution (section 9 i think it is).


  189. sas says:

    “SAS- Are you friends with Deebles in the commens. I think he sums up your views quite nicely”

    i don’t know Deebles, I do know he made some correct statements with the post.

    to add to that post. Its obvious this was a hit. A little thing people don’t understand. This was an multifaceted, institutionalized operation. I can tell you right now: CIA taps were in on it, IRS was in on it, SEC was in on it, even the people who got swindeled were in on it. Those rich fat cats knew damn well the jig, its was a game of musical chairs, with everyone trying to make it legit.

    and btw, one has to clear their head of what “the mob” is. Yup, we got mob in NJ running real estate along the shore and working the trash collection (yup), but the are third to second tier operations. First teir runs the banks, launders the money, issues currency, and SETS policy.


  190. james says:


    I remember as a kid my Dad sold off 10 acres of farmland in Upstate NY 1 mile from the unguarded Canadian border. That would have been perfect for a nompound but you really are isolated up there. The winters are harsh and the people are dirt poor. The other problem would be getting there. Once you have kids the game changes. Going to have to hunker down and stay close to people you can trust. You really dont know someone until you have seen them hungry.

  191. sas says:

    its all fell apart when fear ran through the markets, all at once, people knew that they might be the ones holding the bag, so someone blew the whistle.

    for a moment, due to the lack of trust, and a moment the wink…winks were out the door…. i thought we might of been heading back to free markets.

    I was wrong, they are still manipulated, and more Madoffs are being created, cause they system & gridwork is still in place.


  192. Homer says:

    the first thing you know is, it’s overpriced….
    150k in a nice neighboorhood with a school district in the top 50 of the state is over priced than I am sure missing something.

  193. sas says:

    and, another thought too.

    you might as well throw in the police & couty corner in on it.


  194. james says:


    Yeah can you believe this guys complete disregard for the Constitution? Something aint right and there is too much going on to keep track of it all.

  195. chicagofinance says:

    159.Essex says:
    October 26, 2009 at 7:17 pm
    155. Head for the hills then. family land in the boonies of So. Central PA.

    SX: It’s only 90 minutes to the Shady Grove stop on the DC Metro from most of SCPA……so it ain’t so boonies…y’all

  196. sas says:


    another little thing you might of interest.

    Look into the “carbon tariffs” comments by commerce secretary Gary Locke.


  197. sas says:

    “sodium azide”

    some dumb scientist was prabley screwing around and forgot to clean up after themselves.

    talk about feeling ill. yikes!

    many moons ago, someone pulled a little stunt on me. next thing I know, i got datura stramonium toxicity.


  198. NJCoast says:

    Another loss for the the E Street Family. First Terry, then Danny and now Lenny. A nice guy he was. I never knew he was Bruce’s cousin.

  199. james says:


    It all keeps going back to UN agenda 21 doesnt it.
    “The United Nations website verifies that the U.N. Agenda 21 action plan is Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development works to abolish private property in order to manufacture natural resource shortages and other alarms in order to facilitate governmental control over all resources and ultimately over all human action. So-called public/private partnerships are the major tool used to accomplish this objective.

    What makes the United States of America unique is that this is the only country in the history of the world where management of the natural resources is under citizen control. Everything that city residents obtain originates from the natural resources that come from rural lands. If public/private partnerships achieve control over natural resources, urban citizens are doomed to manipulated crises and shortages.”

    Look at what happened to the farmers in California to save the minnow in the Delta. http://www.norcalblogs.com/post_scripts/2009/09/california-farmers-need-w.html

  200. james says:

    The 3 E’s of Tyranny,

    1. Equity: transformation of the system of equal justice to one of social justice

    2. Economy: transforming a system of free enterprise into a system of global and local public-private partnerships

    3. Environment: intended to sugarcoat the transformation under a guise of ecological crisis management.

  201. chicagofinance says:

    For all you fans of the Doors…Ray Manzarek on keyboards…

  202. chicagofinance says:

    It’s very good, but it launches into the stratosphere at 2:45….

  203. still_looking says:

    sas, 203

    who needs the coroner? (although it helps, I’m sure.)

    large shot of epinephrine hidden inside the too-close-to-an-artery/vein “laceration” that he sustained when he “fell.”


  204. Shore Guy says:

    Is Wall Street catching up to this Board’s analysis?


    Is Market Missing Critical, Bearish Technical Signal?
    Posted By:Lee Brodie

    Guy Adami and Dennis Gartman have both spotted an important technical indicator that they find troublesome, to say the least.

    We’re talking about the technical patterns emerging in the Dow Transports Adami, Gartman and other market pros believe this highly watched index may be showing signs of a double top – traditionally a bearish sign.

    The negative signs are at least twofold 1)the transports have not made a higher high since September 15th and 2) as the index fell volume swelled but as it rose volume waned.

    That’s bearish if you’re a Dow Theorist

    (Dow Theory is a thesis which contends the market is in an upward trend if either the DJ Industrial Average or DJ Transports advances above a previous important high and then the other makes a similar advance.)

    I’m not a Dow Theorist but you can’t ignore this kind of signal, explains Dennis Gartman on Fast Money. We’ve had reversals and we broke an uptrend line, he explains. Those patterns are significant – they’re not to be ignored.

    When the Transports don’t make a new high as the Industrials do, we’re looking squarely at a bearish technical indicator, says Gartman. We’re looking at problems in the very near future.


  205. Shore Guy says:


    It is indeed a sad thing. It is also unfortunate that, with the guys aging, it is likely to be more commonplace. This aging thing is a b!tch.

  206. Shore Guy says:


    I see Lenny was all of 36. What a tragedy for his family. It is so very sad.

  207. Shore Guy says:

    ‘The Crash of 1929’ kicks off PBS package ‘The 1930s’
    To help viewers better understand the Great Recession, PBS’ American Experience series is revisiting the Great Depression with a five-part documentary package The 1930s, starting Monday night (9 ET/PT, times may vary).
    Similarities between the ’30s and the current economic crisis — plunging stock prices, high unemployment rates, mounting government debt and two untested presidents — make revisiting that decade compelling TV, says American Experience executive producer Mark Samels.

    “We can look to the 1930s to help understand how we got where we are today and how we move forward,” Samels says.

    Four of the documentaries, which examine the political, cultural and economic upheaval during one the country’s most turbulent decades, have aired before.

    Tonight’s The Crash of 1929 premiered in 1990 and was last broadcast after Wall Street’s 2008 meltdown; Hoover Dam (Nov. 9) and Surviving the Dust Bowl (Nov. 16) premiered in the late 1990s; race-horse documentary Seabiscuit (Nov. 23) first aired in 2003. But paired with the previously unseen Civilian Conservation Corps (Nov. 2), this is the first time PBS has packaged them as a series.



  208. Shore Guy says:

    Looks like taxes are going up. That should put additional downward pressure on home prices after the first of the year:


  209. Schumpeter says:

    homer (202)-

    Well then, you can take solace in the fact that your offer will be used as a stalking horse to jack all the offers of the cash buyers who are bidding.

    Good luck; you need it.

Comments are closed.