Fearing a crisis? It’s already here.

From NJBIZ:

Fearing a commercial real estate crisis

Distress among commercial real estate mortgages in New Jersey is intensifying, with more properties in the state going back to the lenders. Some industry insiders say a crisis may be in the works if the economy continues to falter.

“You’re certainly seeing an increasing rate of foreclosures, and of lenders taking back properties,” said David Bernhaut, executive vice president at the East Rutherford office of Cushman & Wakefield, a commercial real estate brokerage. “It’s distress that everybody feels and senses.”

New Jersey currently has nearly $3.6 billion of distressed commercial assets, according to Real Capital Analytics, a New York-based research and consulting firm. Distressed assets include those in foreclosure or bankruptcy, have been restructured or modified, or have been taken back by the lender through foreclosure.

Many properties acquired between 2005 and 2007 — when prices were at their highest — were overleveraged, Bernhaut said. “What you’re seeing now is difficulty in refinancing assets.” The commercial mortgage-backed securities market — a major source of commercial real estate financing during those years — is no longer active, because of the large losses the holders of these securities have suffered, while “lenders have gotten much more conservative, so they won’t lend the type of proceeds necessary to pay off existing mortgages,” he said.

eal estate investment activity in New Jersey peaked from 2005 to 2006, and with most commercial real estate loans having five-year terms, the majority of those mortgages are due to mature between 2010 and 2012, he said.

Delinquencies made up 3.7 percent of commercial mortgages in New Jersey during the second quarter of 2009, up from 1.6 percent in the same period a year ago, according to Foresight Analytics, an Oakland, Calif.-based research firm. An estimated $7.4 billion of commercial mortgages are expected to mature between 2009 and 2011 in New Jersey, which ranks 13th in the nation in terms of the dollar amount of commercial mortgage maturities during the two-year period, the firm said.

Foreclosures and deeds in lieu of foreclosure have affected more than 15 buildings in New Jersey in 2009, and will become more and more prevalent during the second half of 2010 and 2011, as more commercial real estate debt matures, said David Simson, vice chairman and chief operating officer of New Jersey operations for commercial real estate services firm Newmark Knight Frank.

For properties purchased in the last five to six years, “the debt structure associated with those buildings may very well exceed the current market value of those buildings,” meaning the owners have no equity, to offer concession packages to prospective tenants, nor can they pay service providers, he said.

Edward Mermelstein, co-founder and managing principal of Edward A. Mermelstein & Associates, a New York law firm that works on deals in New Jersey, said lenders are putting themselves at risk as the gap between a loan’s face value and market value continues to widen.

“How long can you extend loans as property values continue to come down?” he said. “Many of these regional lenders are going to have no place to go except out of business.”

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366 Responses to Fearing a crisis? It’s already here.

  1. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    More homeowners than ever take on tax man

    “A starter house. No additions,” Barbara Albert told the Essex County Board of Taxation in an effort to lower her $462,800 assessment.

    “I’ve never modernized it,” Jeanine Genauer said of her Montclair split-level with an assessment of $522,400.

    “I realized I overspent at the time, but it was cheaper than Manhattan,” Angela Amendola told the board of taxation commissioner listening to her case for lowering her $703,400 assessment — and in the process the $16,790 property tax bill that goes with it.

    This year, an unprecedented number of New Jerseyans are challenging their assessments in the state with the nation’s highest property taxes.

    The number of appeals before Essex County’s tax board have reached 6,487 this year — nearly twice the 3,631 appeals filed last year. In Ocean County, appeals have nearly tripled to more than 14,000.

    “It’s 14,129. I know that number by heart. I’ve been in the industry 35 years. It’s a record,” said L. Ozzie Vituscka, the county’s tax administrator. “They’re scared, and rightly so.”

  2. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    Pfizer will close N.J. research center as part of major consolidation

    Just weeks after completing its acquisition of Wyeth, Pfizer said this morning it will consolidate its far-flung research and development activity to five main campuses. The strategy will result in the closing of six locations including Wyeth’s Princeton research center, which represented the heart of the company’s discovery efforts on Alzheimer’s disease.

    The work being done at the center, which is actually located in South Brunswick, will be relocated to Pfizer’s major research campus in Groton, Conn. The relocation is planned to go into effect next year.

    Roughly 450 people work at Wyeth’s former Princeton research center. The facility also does animal health research.

  3. Upsidedown says:

    Here is an interesting one about folks living the high life on their unemployment benefits:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125780714976639687.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLETopStories

    Are we going to see home foreclosures accelerate when all of them stop receiving their unemployment benefits and their savings are depleted?

  4. grim says:

    From the Times of Trenton:

    Pfizer closing N.J. site

    Finding itself with a far-flung collection of research operations after its merger with Wyeth, drug giant Pfizer chipped away another piece of New Jersey’s pharmaceutical industry yesterday, announcing plans to close a building where teams of scientists have spent years pursuing treatments for Alzheimer’s disease.

    The Ridge Road research building, which represented the heart of Wyeth’s efforts on Alzheimer’s, will be closed next year, Pfizer said. The closing will affect 450 people, most of whom face the loss of their jobs.

    “On the one hand, this is a difficult decision,” Mikail Dosten, Pfizer’s president of biotherapeutics research and development said during a telephone interview. “But we believe this will position the new Pfizer in a leadership role.”

    One employee, a behavioral pharmacologist, said he was waiting to hear whether he would be offered a position in Groton.

    “I’m hopeful,” he said. “We don’t know what the numbers are going to be.”

    He said he has colleagues who worked at Wyeth for decades and will now likely lose their jobs.

    “It’s clearly a tough situation,” he said. “When the news comes, when it becomes definitive, it hits home.”

  5. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    More Lenders Raise Prime Mortgage Standards: Fed

    The portion of lenders that increased standards for prime residential mortgages and revolving home equity lines of credit increased slightly this quarter, according to the Federal Reserve’s October 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

    The rate of banks that reported tightening lending standards for prime residential real estate loans was 25% in October, up slightly from 20% in the July survey, the Fed said. The current rate is well below the peak of 75% reported in July 2008.

    About 30% of lenders reported tightening standards on nontraditional mortgages, a decline of 15 percentage points from the July survey.

    In addition, 30% of respondents reported tightening standards for revolving home equity lines of credit, about even from July. Also, about 30% of banks reported weaker demand for home equity lines of credit, up from 15% in July.

  6. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Christie considers declaring financial state of emergency

    As he seeks concessions from state workers to balance his first budget, Governor-elect Chris Christie is examining the possibility of declaring a financial emergency in the state, according to an official familiar with his plans.

    Such a declaration — invoking the same law as if New Jersey were hit by a natural disaster — could give Christie broad powers, such as suspending rules governing state worker layoffs. With many state workers due to receive two raises in the next fiscal year and a no-layoff pledge in place through December 2010, Christie’s transition team expects to tackle the issue before he takes office Jan. 19, two of his advisers said Monday.

    The advisers, who requested anonymity because the discussions are preliminary, said it is too early to determine whether a state of emergency would be an attractive proposition or a last resort in the face of a continuing recession.

    Christie, a Republican who defeated Democratic Governor Corzine last week, will face an estimated $8 billion shortfall for the budget he must present by March.

  7. Schumpeter says:

    grim (4)-

    What company in their right minds wouldn’t get out of this state?

  8. Schumpeter says:

    I’m sure Corslime and his apparatchiks repeatedly lobbied Wyeth/Pfizer to stay, offering plenty of incentives.

    Not. They were probably too busy buying off black ministers in Hudson Co.

    [sarcasm stuck in “on” position]

  9. Schumpeter says:

    grim (6)-

    Fatso does that, he’s got my attention.

  10. freedy says:

    Where’s Carla in the middle of all this?

  11. lostinny says:

    3 Upsidedown
    Are we going to see home foreclosures accelerate when all of them stop receiving their unemployment benefits and their savings are depleted?

    What savings? These people piss their “savings” away like it’s nothing. I have trouble feeling bad for them when they refuse to tighten their belts. However, I feel terribly for their children. The kids are learning nothing more then spend spend spend. They are not learning the highly (obviously) valuable lesson of fiscal responsibility. This is what got many of their parents in a bigger mess then they could have been in had they been more responsible.

  12. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Funny anecdote from my brother in Midwest corporate America land. Word comes down that the corp is going to do a 20-30% reduction in HQ headcount. HOWEVER, the reductions won’t come until February. So now instead of just the 200-300 employees on the chopping block worried about their future and not spending anything this X-mas these geniuses are insuring that 1500 employees don’t spend anything this X-mas. Good job. Kudos.

  13. SG says:

    More Lenders Raise Prime Mortgage Standards: Fed

    The portion of lenders that increased standards for prime residential mortgages and revolving home equity lines of credit increased slightly this quarter, according to the Federal Reserve’s October 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices.

    The rate of banks that reported tightening lending standards for prime residential real estate loans was 25% in October, up slightly from 20% in the July survey, the Fed said. The current rate is well below the peak of 75% reported in July 2008.

    About 30% of lenders reported tightening standards on nontraditional mortgages, a decline of 15 percentage points from the July survey.

    In addition, 30% of respondents reported tightening standards for revolving home equity lines of credit, about even from July. Also, about 30% of banks reported weaker demand for home equity lines of credit, up from 15% in July.

  14. stan says:

    I think christie has to declare the state of emergency. HTF did Corzine authorize raises in 2007-2008.

    Tax revenue fell of a cliff and he gave raises? Odd part about that article as the fact that ste state furloughed workesn and then paid them for the time off? I don’t recall that but its just mindboggling.

    There has to be some sharing of the pain here.

  15. BC Bob says:

    “How long can you extend loans as property values continue to come down?”

    Simply as long as you can play extend and pretend. Then suddenly, boom, the bottom drops out. When it comes, it’s not announced, it will show up at your front door, without any specific reason but with a specific agenda.

  16. gary says:

    I received an email from a realtor with listings stating that prices are starting to rise because of the improving economy, the tax credit and historic low interest rates. So, I just increased the asking price on my house by 3%. You all better get in now while the buying opportunity of a lifetime is upon us.

  17. SG says:

    SocGen’s Top Analyst Sees Market Lows Next Year

    HONG KONG (Reuters) – Albert Edwards, a top analyst with French bank Societe Generale, expects global markets to hit a new low in 2010, adding that he would not be surprised if the global economy enters another recession next year.

    Edwards said he expected that at some point China would go into recession, calling people’s excessive faith in growth stories a “sick joke.”

    Japan would run into difficulty funding itself next year as demand for Japanese government bonds waned and bond yields rose further, he said.

    The significance of higher Japanese government bond yields was that it would cause some Japanese investors, who have been investing overseas in search of higher returns, to bring that money back home, he said.

  18. BC Bob says:

    “What savings?”

    Lost [11],

    Also, scratching my head regarding that one.

  19. lostinny says:

    16 Gary
    I’m first in line! I don’t care about granite or stainless. But I would like your meds- with refills.

  20. lostinny says:

    18 BC
    Like minds…

  21. gary says:

    lost,

    If you sign a contract for the asking price, I’ll put together an assorted goody bag to help ease the pain when you sign the contract and realize what your PITI is going to be every 30 days.

  22. lostinny says:

    21 Gary
    Works for me.

  23. A report from Debt Management Today suggests that overdraft and personal loan debt levels… Commercial Property

  24. Schumpeter says:

    gary (21)-

    Gimme all your diazepam, then we can talk.

  25. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    This guy is right out of the Schumpeter School of Economic Anarchy:

    “The dollar will get “utterly destroyed” and become “virtually worthless”, said Damon Vickers, chief investment officer of Nine Points Capital Partners.

    “We don’t have resources. Neither does a lot of Asia to be quite frank,” Vickers said on CNBC’s Asia Squawk Box. “Countries that have resources — the Brazils, the Canadas, Australia — their currencies are doing well.”

    Vickers noted that their stock markets have done the best year-to-date.

    “They have stuff. They’ve got resources. They export real things. The United States exports ‘promises’ and ‘pretty paper’,” he added.

    I kinda like that last quote. Very Schumpeterian.

  26. Only RE related in a tertiary manner, but; The Guradian is claiming the US has pressured the IEA regarding oil production figures and we are much much closer to peak production than being disclosed.
    Not really the meat of the article, but a fun quote;

    A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could “peak” and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were “at best optimistic and at worst implausible”.

    The potential for non-cheap oil in the coming decade should prove interesting. If there’s anything that is going to kill the `merican suburb, it’ll be this.

  27. BC Bob says:

    “Vickers noted that their stock markets have done the best year-to-date.”

    Nom,

    We said a long time ago, start moving capital to Aussie, Loonie, Real, Kiwi, etc.. Can you imagine, currencies backed by tangibles?

  28. Schumpeter says:

    This is un-American. What kind of insanity is this guy “Mish” talking? Dear Leader is good. Stimulus is good. Do what your leaders, teachers and bankers tell you to do. Get back to work, and quit slacking off, loser!

    “Here is a bonus problem most have not figured out: The tax credits stimulated housing when there is an oversupply already. Some received tax credits for houses they would buy anyway, the others left rentals to buy into inflated housing prices.

    As a direct consequence of the above, rental vacancies are rising, rents are falling and there is increased pressure on commercial real estate prices as a direct consequence.

    Total it all up and the true cost of all the various stimulus programs is far in excess of $323,739.83 per job created. Indeed, the net effect will help solidify the new career path toward day labor rates.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/new-career-path-day-labor-work.html

  29. scribe says:

    gary,

    Does this house come with property that is somewhat secluded and prime for growing …errr … leafy foliage?

    I think that’s the new trend. WSJ is writing about all the grow farms tucked away in national forests and on Native American reservations.

    60’s redux?

  30. Schumpeter says:

    This guy “Mish” should be deported. A regular economic terrorist:

    “Inquiring minds might be asking “Why Aren’t Banks Lending?”

    1) There are no credit-worthy businesses that want to borrow.

    2) Consumers are tapped out and do not want to borrow.

    3) Banks are scared to death of pending commercial real estate losses, credit card losses, residential real estate losses, home equity lines of credit losses, and losses in general.

    4) Asset prices are simply too high (and banks know it) and the securitization market has dried up

    Number three above is the most critical one. Banks need those reserves to cover future writeoffs.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/what-is-inflation-and-how-does-one.html

  31. Jill says:

    Gee, where were all of you when Bush and the Republican Congress were running the country into the ground?

  32. gary says:

    scribe,

    After I bust up what’s left of the decaying 10′ X 10′ screened porch built on the house in the late 50’s, I’ll add a layer of top soil to kill the cat/dog p1ss stench and plant something there. I’ll try to bury the pieces of cinder block the best I can. I just gotta watch out for all the rusted nails and other scraps of stuff as well. Did I mention I want nothing less than the 2005 price for the house? And is it ok that I’m burning this creosote soaked lumber in a garbage can in the yard?

  33. BC Bob says:

    “Gee, where were all of you when Bush and the Republican Congress were running the country into the ground?”

    Selling dollars, selling RE and buying gold.

  34. scribe says:

    gary,

    Sounds lovely!

    I’ll take it!

    but, seriously, folks …

    are you really trying to sell?

    to do what?

    move elsewhere?

  35. Schumpeter says:

    “A rolling loan gathers no moss”. Good times ahead, kids:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/22344167/TCR-Commercial-Real-Estate-ZHB

  36. Schumpeter says:

    scribe (35)-

    Hell, yeah. Those sellers want to buy back in and get that $6,500 tax credit…before it’s too late.

    [sarcasm on for the rest of my adult life]

  37. Schumpeter says:

    jill (31)-

    Please. Both GWB and O are house niggaz. Only diff is the skin color.

  38. SG says:

    Dow Leaps in Skeptics’ Rally

    Part of the fuel for the broad-based investment rally is the trillions of dollars in debt-financed stimulus that the world’s governments and central banks have been pouring into economies, in their effort to end the deep recession. The money enhances corporate profits, making stocks appear more attractive. Since businesses can’t put it all to productive use, some finds its way into asset markets.

    The huge gains have left investors surprisingly unsatisfied. Enormous though it is, the investment boom since March has been a skeptics’ rally — fed by money managers who feel they must make risky bets in order to keep up with the market, but who don’t like what they see.

    While it’s possible that new bubbles are being inflated in financial markets, history suggests there often is a lag between the moment experts identify bubbles and the time they pop. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned in 1996 of “irrational exuberance” in the stock market, but stocks didn’t collapse until 2000. While many experts warned of a housing bubble by 2005, the bubble didn’t start deflating until the next year.

    Yet many investors are uneasy. For these people, the market is taking on a “greater fool” feel, meaning that many don’t really believe in the investments they are making. They are banking on being able to sell to a “greater fool” later.

  39. NJGator says:

    June 30? Ha! The Gator family hearing was scheduled this year on October 26!

    My guess for 2010 is that these hearings will be scheduled all the way through year end. Bloomfield, Roseland and Verona are all revaluing for 2010 with the same company that did such a crappy job in Montclair. Maplewood is then on deck for 2011.

    “The case loads are so big that Ocean — along with Essex, Atlantic and Bergen counties — were granted extensions beyond the typical June 30 deadline to hear appeals that are generated mostly by long overdue revaluations and a sagging economy.”

  40. Schumpeter says:

    gary (32)-

    Don’t waste that fire. Grill a couple of chickens over it.

    “And is it ok that I’m burning this creosote soaked lumber in a garbage can in the yard?”

  41. Outofstater says:

    I think the financial state of emergency has real possibilities. I’m so fed up with unions that I will now look for the Non-Union Label. The only domestic car I’d ever consider buying was Ford because they didn’t take a bailout but after the UAW told them to stuff it in the recent contract vote, Ford is no longer an option for me. If I bought a domestic car, I’d feel I was rewarding inept management and thuggish unions. Now if you could just figure out a way to send the same message to the public employees unions. Kinda tricky, though. I mean, what can you do, refuse to flush to teach the sewers a lesson? Ideas, anyone?

  42. lostinny says:

    Scribe & Gary!
    I already had a deal with Gary. Gary I agreed to full asking price. I will not enter a bidding war. If Scribe wants it, she can have it. Take you scripts and stick ’em!

  43. Schumpeter says:

    stater (42)-

    Lock and load. Vote with a bullet.

  44. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [27] bob

    “Can you imagine, currencies backed by tangibles?”

    No, I’m an American.

  45. BklynHawk says:

    Maybe the state could save money here…

    Camden’s waterfront – and its woes
    N.J. vowed to revitalize the city.

    Today, job numbers are largely unchanged, but millions have gone to such “anchors” as Cooper, Campbell’s, and the aquarium.

    http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepage/20091109_Camden_s_waterfront_-_and_its_woes.html

  46. John says:

    Ford – The upshot
    You really only need to look at one number — $26.9 billion in debt — to know that Ford is still a very sick company. I’d say it’s still in intensive care, though the priest who came by to give the last rites has probably been sent home. They are executing very well on their extremely ambitious turnaround plan, but some key questions remain. Here they are as I see them:

    Will Ford survive without bankruptcy in the near term? If they keep executing on their plan, and if the economy doesn’t take a sharp turn for the worse, yes.
    Will they be able to pay down that gruesome debt load? Yes, eventually, assuming they reach a sustainable level of profitability by 2011, as they are currently predicting, though we may see more restructuring (or re-restructuring) of their debt in the next year or two.
    Should I buy or sell the stock right now? I wouldn’t sell — I’m a Ford shareholder and I’m not planning to sell anytime soon. But whether it’s a buy at current prices is a more complicated question, one I’ll take a closer look at once Ford releases its complete third-quarter numbers.

  47. Sean says:

    re: #26 tosh

    The rule of thumb is that serious damage to the US economy starts at $70 a barrel. It is higher than that for WTI already.

    Long dated options are over $100 a Barrel.

    I read a report recently that is quite scary. Global oil demand is expected to advance 1 percent a year to 105 million barrels a day by 2030 from 85 million barrels a day in 2008.

    And there are rumors abound that we hit peak oil already, if so we are truly screwed, there will be war over it.

  48. BC Bob says:

    Sean [48],

    If the architect’s continue to prostitute the stock of our country, the summer of 08′ highs will be the new floor. Then again, why worry, it doesn’t matter if the dollar is pulverized.

  49. Sean says:

    More on Oil, the Iraqis are now in a mad rush to get their capacity up to 6 million barrels a day, for the current 2.5 million.

    Oil has gained 74 percent this year and last month traded above $80 a barrel for the first time in a year.

    Deflation my arse folks.

  50. #48 – rumors abound that we hit peak oil already, if so we are truly screwed, there will be war over it

    Given the US’ current policy of preserving the suburbs at any possible expense, I’d say the only question on conflict over oil is time.

  51. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [46] hawk

    Nothing wrong with Camden that several miles of chain link fence, razor wire, and some strategically-placed towers and gates won’t cure.

    I would have suggested a 20 kiloton warhead, but downtown philly is too close, and the fallout would affect the Shore.

  52. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    There really are too many people in the world. And the population is increasing exponentially, it has doubled since 1960. There’s not enough oil (and other resources) to support this many folks.

    We need some kind of mass wipe-out to bring this world down to size. Here are the 20 Worst Thinks People Have Done to Each Other….

    Rank Death Toll Cause Centuries
    1 55 million Second World War 20C
    2 40 million Mao Zedong (mostly famine) 20C
    3 40 million Mongol Conquests 13C
    4 36 million An Lushan Revolt 8C
    5 25 million Fall of the Ming Dynasty 17C
    6 20 million Taiping Rebellion 19C
    7 20 million Death of American Indians 15C-19C
    8 20 million Iosif Stalin 20C
    9 19 million Mideast Slave Trade 7C-19C
    10 18 million Atlantic Slave Trade 15C-19C
    11 17 million Timur Lenk 14C-15C
    12 17 million British India (mostly famine) 19C
    13 15 million First World War 20C
    14 9 million Russian Civil War 20C
    15 8 million Fall of Rome 3C-5C
    16 8 million Congo Free State 19C-20C
    17 7 million Thirty Years War 17C
    18 5 million Russia’s Time of Troubles 16C-17C
    19 4 million Napoleonic Wars 19C
    20 3 million Chinese Civil War 20C
    21 3 million French Wars of Religion 16C

  53. Schumpeter says:

    plume (52)-

    That’s why God gave us the daisy cutter.

  54. BklynHawk says:

    52/Plume-
    I was going to suggest a GTG with bulldozers and cranes with wrecking balls. Have the worst blocks utilities shut off. Relocate anyone left to foreclosures in other areas. Tear everything down.

    Leave the wrecked areas to go wild and turn into wildlife areas (almost no costs involved). Hand any leftover abandoned warehouses and buildings to artists (this model is proved work). Voila! Problem solved.

  55. Sean says:

    re #49 – Is it true Berkshire had bought a buggy-whip company?

  56. Happy Daze says:

    Xanadu.

    Soon to be known as Siberia.

  57. chicagofinance says:

    It’s called respect actually. Those corpos are doing everyone a favor….

    Dissident HEHEHE says:
    November 10, 2009 at 7:58 am
    Funny anecdote from my brother in Midwest corporate America land. Word comes down that the corp is going to do a 20-30% reduction in HQ headcount. HOWEVER, the reductions won’t come until February. So now instead of just the 200-300 employees on the chopping block worried about their future and not spending anything this X-mas these geniuses are insuring that 1500 employees don’t spend anything this X-mas. Good job. Kudos.

  58. Happy Daze says:

    How about another Snake Plissken movie,
    this time set in Camden?

  59. chicagofinance says:

    strumpet: so zero hedge claims conspiracy that banks are stuffing cash and tarp into UST; mish claims pure logic and self-preservation…..
    SO WHICH ONE IS IT?
    ..or anything is fine as long as it is negative?

    Schumpeter says:
    November 10, 2009 at 9:05 am

    This guy “Mish” should be deported. A regular economic terrorist:

    “Inquiring minds might be asking “Why Aren’t Banks Lending?”

    1) There are no credit-worthy businesses that want to borrow.

    2) Consumers are tapped out and do not want to borrow.

    3) Banks are scared to death of pending commercial real estate losses, credit card losses, residential real estate losses, home equity lines of credit losses, and losses in general.

    4) Asset prices are simply too high (and banks know it) and the securitization market has dried up

    Number three above is the most critical one. Banks need those reserves to cover future writeoffs.”

  60. confused in NJ says:

    53. A repeat of Toba could solve the population problem:

    The Toba catastrophe theory holds that 70,000 to 75,000 years ago, a supervolcanic event at Lake Toba, on Sumatra (Indonesia), possibly the largest explosive volcanic eruption within the last twenty-five million years plunged the Earth, which was already in an ice-age, into an even colder spell. This resulted in the world’s human population being reduced to 10,000 or even a mere 1,000 breeding pairs, creating a bottleneck in human evolution. The theory was proposed in 1998 by Stanley H. Ambrose[1] of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.[2][3][4]

  61. chicagofinance says:

    Look what they did to the US 30 connector from 676 to 130/38/70….just level everything and reclaim it as Greenfield…..they are doing it en masse in Youngstown OH.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    November 10, 2009 at 10:14 am

    [46] hawk

    Nothing wrong with Camden that several miles of chain link fence, razor wire, and some strategically-placed towers and gates won’t cure.

    I would have suggested a 20 kiloton warhead, but downtown philly is too close, and the fallout would affect the Shore.

  62. FHA’s reserves now at less than 2% of outstanding loans.
    This should be fun.

  63. chicagofinance says:

    Over the next three days we will have massive reporting of earnings by retailers….here is another chance for the market to blow up…..some really decent numbers are baked in….anything better than decent means that more of the melt-up is on the way…..

  64. relo says:

    61: Ugh, I hate the cold.

  65. Kettle1 says:

    Tosh 26

    we already passed peak, around 07

  66. homeboken says:

    ChiFi 64 – The actual, or baked in numbers, have nothing to do with valuation or market movements anymore.

    Look at total volume on the up days, yesterday is a perfect example. Market up more than 2%, volume about 60% of the trend-line average.

    No one is in this market anymore. The volume only exists between manipulated market makers.

  67. yikes says:

    not sure if this has been linked, but a great read on people burning through $

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125780714976639687.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_news

    Paul Joegriner hasn’t worked since March 2008, when he was laid off from his $200,000-a-year job as chief executive officer of a small bank. But you wouldn’t know it by appearances.

    The family’s lifestyle over the past year and a half has been propped up by a $200,000 severance package and another $100,000 in savings — funds the family has burned through rapidly. By Mr. Joegriner’s own calculations, the family will be out of money in six months if he doesn’t find work.

    “It will be D-Day,” he says. “But on the outside, no one has any idea that we’re in trouble.”

  68. yikes says:

    what is going to happen when all those people run out of unemployment paychecks at year’s end?

    bedlam? anarchy?

    zombies?

  69. Kettle1 says:

    Tosh, Sean

    Re the IEA and fudged production numbers

    http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200712_Fig3b.png

  70. kettle1 says:

    Tosh, Sean,

    And the latest and greatest oil production outlooks

    http://www.theoildrum.com/files/PU200906_Fig3b.png

  71. chicagofinance says:

    home: We are going to talk past each other on this one. However, just to respond with something that I would hope you would answer for me, since you are positing the argument.

    During the “trend-line”….strip out all volume on TARP/receivership corps….now restate the analysis…what do you see? Also, I assume volume is pure transactional share volume, not dollar-weighted…

    homeboken says:
    November 10, 2009 at 11:33 am

    ChiFi 64 – The actual, or baked in numbers, have nothing to do with valuation or market movements anymore.

    Look at total volume on the up days, yesterday is a perfect example. Market up more than 2%, volume about 60% of the trend-line average.

    No one is in this market anymore. The volume only exists between manipulated market makers.

  72. homeboken says:

    Chi – I am looking at VWAP, not transactional.

  73. chicagofinance says:

    homeboken says:
    November 10, 2009 at 11:54 am
    Chi – I am looking at VWAP, not transactional.

    What do you believe is the impact of Cash for Trash?

  74. chicagofinance says:

    What do you believe is the impact of THE Cash for Trash TRADING?

  75. chicagofinance says:

    As an example…look at this….
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=C&t=6m

  76. homeboken says:

    I beleive that it is a complete abberation from normal business for companies that benefited and participated.

    However, if we beleive that markets are “forward” looking, then these results are already baked in to the current equity prices (I assume you mean equities when speaking about melt-ups).

    I think we are agreeing with each other. My point is that the valuations are abnormally high based on projected earnings. Factor in that the very basis for the earnings are totally unsustainable and I think it magnifies the result.

    All disclaimers, I am an idiot in the markets and should not ever be taken seriously.

  77. Schumpeter says:

    chi (60)-

    No one is lending. I can confirm this, since an established, high-profile lending business operates in my building. They fight all day with banks and investors who don’t want to make loans to a dwindling group of people with excellent credit who actually still want to take on debt. It seems surreal, until you actually hear an underwriter on speakerphone telling one of our originators that a 100K-ish loan- to an 800 FICO borrower- is being delayed indefinitely since the submitted appraisal on the subject property was not printed with the borrower’s last name first on the cover page (no lie; I witnessed this last week).

    These banks and investors are hoarding cash at record levels. If you want to claim that the metrics measuring that are cooked, fine. I’d rebut that the gang cranking out those bank reserve numbers are influenced by the same malevolent forces that want us to believe UE is only 10.2% and prosperity is just around the corner.

    I’m looking for a positive story. I’m ready to be wrong.

    It isn’t happening yet. Things are getting worse by the day.

  78. Schumpeter says:

    Oh, sorry. If you’re a low-600 FICO looking for an FHA loan on a property of questionable value, there are a host of lenders who are looking for your business.

    That should end well…

  79. Schumpeter says:

    tosh (63)-

    You and me are FHA’s “reserves”.

    Party on, Garth.

  80. Schumpeter says:

    BC (81)-

    Deflationary debt destruction is sooo boring and predictable…

    Inflation is sexy.

  81. BC Bob says:

    “What do you believe is the impact of THE Cash for Trash TRADING?”

    Chi,

    I’ll step up to the plate;

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?vol=Y&jav=adv&grid=Y&divd=Y&org=stk&sym=GCZ9&data=H&code=BSTK&evnt=adv

  82. chicagofinance says:

    Why Vanguard is a piece of sh!t….

    A widow 60 years-old comes to them with $3M and asks what do…..response?

    Total Bond Market Index $1.25M
    Total Stock Market Index $1M
    Total International Stock Index $0.75M

    Whew…man that was hard work……

  83. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:13 pm
    “What do you believe is the impact of THE Cash for Trash TRADING?”
    Chi, I’ll step up to the plate;

    Do you actually have conversations with people?

  84. chicagofinance says:

    Schumpeter says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:06 pm
    chi (60)-
    No one is lending
    TO CONSUMERS….companies are backing up the forklifts and it is cheap.

    I’d rebut that the gang cranking out those bank reserve numbers are influenced by the same malevolent forces that want us to believe UE is only 10.2% and prosperity is just around the corner.
    WHY IS EVERYTHING BLACK AND WHITE? I am negative, just less negative than most of the posters here….

  85. BC Bob says:

    “want us to believe UE is only 10.2%”

    Schump [82],

    There will be an adjustment [subtracted], Feb, of approx 800K phanthom jobs created by B/D. Don’t think that was built into the stress test blackbox. Then again, nor is the household survey.

  86. BC Bob says:

    “Do you actually have conversations with people?”

    Chi,

    I’ve said it for the past 4 years[this site]. Actualy, longer outside. No need to reiterate. In addition to this, no need to communicate with the arrogant, egotistical, self absorbed.

  87. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:06 pm
    Pant up?
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

    Our arbiter will be….
    Macy’s Inc;
    Kohl’s Corp;
    Nordstrom;
    Wal-Mart Stores;
    Walt Disney Co;
    AmBev;
    Urban Outfitters;
    Abercrombie & Fitch;
    JCPenney Co;

  88. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [122][prior thread] pgc

    “Your still thinking too local. One countries tax is another countries credit. You had the right idea with the Irish Artists exemption, but it can get a lot more sophisticated than that.”

    First, check to see if there are withholding requirements for the distributions from a US-based IRA to a foreign accountholder. Also, if the foreign accountholder is a US expat, check on the rules regarding pledges to avoid the “exit tax.”

    Second, Ireland has restricted the artist exemption, and may do away with it altogether.

    Third, current legislation would crack down on using treaty countries as conduits for transferring cash to havens.

    back to work

  89. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:26 pm
    “Do you actually have conversations with people?”

    Bost: You have one message, and you repeat it over and over. How is that not “arrogant, egotistical, self absorbed.”

    Also, there is no gray. Exact agreement or nothing…How is that not “arrogant, egotistical, self absorbed.”

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [93] redux

    Also, with respect to withholding on an IRA or other retirement account, check to see if new foreign home has tax credit offset. It might not.

  91. chicagofinance says:

    Someone keep me honest. I am expecting better than average numbers and more melt-up. Stuff this hard in my face next week should I deserve it!

    chicagofinance says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:27 pm

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:06 pm
    Pant up?
    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/Current/

    Our arbiter will be….
    Macy’s Inc;
    Kohl’s Corp;
    Nordstrom;
    Wal-Mart Stores;
    Walt Disney Co;
    AmBev;
    Urban Outfitters;
    Abercrombie & Fitch;
    JCPenney Co;

  92. lisoosh says:

    Yup, everything will be picking up in a heartbeat……boom times here we come:

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINION/11/06/stimulus.jobs/

    Landing a job like getting into Harvard

    Since the beginning of the recession in December 2007, job openings declined from 4.4 million to 2.4 million and the number of officially unemployed persons grew from 7.5 million to 15.7 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    …Adding part-time workers to the number of officially unemployed and the discouraged workers, as labor market expert Leo Hindery, Jr., has observed, results in a rise in the real unemployment rate to 19.2 percent, or 30.6 million people.

    The odds of any one of these 30 million securing one of the 2.4 million full-time jobs available is 8 percent, the same as the admissions rate of the Ivy League gold standard, Harvard University.

  93. BC Bob says:

    Chi [92],

    That report indicates the first qoq decline in credit since the fed has been tracking. They have never witnessed this before. This trend is much more significant than food shoppers at Wal-Mart, breweries or teen shopping.

  94. BC Bob says:

    Chi [94],

    One message? Obviously you have not been paying attention.

  95. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    I would say you are both right. I seem to have noticed a trend where current EPS is exceeding expectations on average, but future earnings are then lowered. Kind of like the same game the media keeps playing with economic numbers where they keep making adjustments to the prior month’s data to make the latest number look better.

    The end of personal credit must impact the discretionary spend…no?

    I truly think the impact of severance dollars and unemployment benefits is what is keeping this economy from total collapse. We have borrowed a huge amount from the loan shark, but soon he is going to want his interest, or else.

    I’ll just sit back and watch and not participate in this mess, because quite frankly, there is no way to play it fundamentally as the government keeps moving the goal posts.

    Our children are gonna hate us!

  96. lisoosh says:

    Good for some, bad for others……house prices and changes all over the map.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Median-home-prices-fell-apf-2299106760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

    Median home prices fell in 80 percent of US metropolitan areas in third quarter of 2009

    A real estate group says home prices fell in eight out of every 10 U.S. cities in the third quarter of this year as heavily discounted distressed sales made up 30 percent of all deals.

    ..Prices in Fort Myers, Fla., plunging 40 percent to $98,000 from a year ago, the worst in the nation. Las Vegas saw its median price tumble almost 35 percent to $138,500 year-over-year.

    The largest price gain, by contrast, was in Cumberland, Md., where prices jumped 19 percent to $122,100. Davenport, Iowa, followed with an increase of 14 percent to $115,600.

  97. Orion says:

    I attended Sheriff sale in Monmouth yesterday:

    7 for sale
    6 back to bank
    1 sold (Middletown) at 50% off original mortgage, Wells F. took the hit.

  98. lisoosh says:

    Great graphic of how the Bank of England keeps having to revise its GDP numbers lower;

    http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23767015-lets-hope-that-the-bank-of-england-finally-gets-it-right.do

  99. BC Bob says:

    Chi,

    Is this the one message you are referring to?

    BC Bob Says:
    September 25th, 2007 at 1:23 pm

    “But judging by their actions Wall Street firms are optimistic about the outlook for their businesses and comfortable with current staff levels.”

    [29],

    Oh really? If current conditions linger, I’m hearing 10-20% layoffs. Bear, as we know it, will not be the same. It’s either massive restructuring, 30-50% layoffs, or it will be bought by someone like Merrill or JP.

  100. Justin says:

    “Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini believes the bubble is about to burst”

    from the article…
    Well, even Roubini himself believes that the “unraveling may not occur for a while, as easy money and excessive global liquidity can push asset prices higher for a while.”

  101. Stu says:

    Why Jamie Dimon Wants to Silence Paul Volcker

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/369201/Why-Jamie-Dimon-Wants-to-Silence-Paul-Volcker?

    Repealing Glass-Steagall was “obnoxious” and a bipartisan “absurdity,” says Charlie Gasparino, author of The Sellout and CNBC’s on-air editor. The end result of the repeal was you have “taxpayers subsidizing risk-taking” on Wall Street, he continues. “It’s the most anti-capitalist thing I’ve ever heard of in my life.”

  102. safeashouses says:

    Schumpeter,

    This woman combines football juggling skills with tofu.

    http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMTI0NDg3MzYw.html

  103. jamil says:

    Hope and Change. Had Bush DOJ done this, it would have been a sign of fascism.
    Can’t wait when the visitor list to this site will be subpoenaed (maybe it has already).

    “Justice Dept. Asked For News Site’s Visitor Lists”

    In a case that raises questions about online journalism and privacy rights, the U.S. Department of Justice sent a formal request to an independent news site ordering it to provide details of all reader visits on a certain day.

    The grand jury subpoena also required the Philadelphia-based Indymedia.us Web site “not to disclose the existence of this request” unless authorized by the Justice Department, a gag order that presents an unusual quandary for any news organization.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/09/taking_liberties/entry5595506.shtml?tag=mncol;txt

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Loan shark? I get the feeling it is more of a svengali relationship.

    Note: I am pulling the next comment completely out of my a%%. They always say that that consumer spending is 70% of the economy, but they didn’t say which consumers….our companies sans banks are awash in cash….there are plenty of consumers, they just happen not to be in the United States.

    Again, please do not misread what I am saying. I am very negative.

    Stu says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:50 pm
    ChiFi: The end of personal credit must impact the discretionary spend…no?
    We have borrowed a huge amount from the loan shark, but soon he is going to want his interest, or else.

  105. Sean says:

    re: Holiday Retail Sales.

    NRF forecasts holiday sales will decline one percent to $437.6 billion.

    And their own survey’s say a bit less at 3.2% decline.

    According to NRF’s 2009 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $682.74 on holiday-related shopping, a 3.2 percent drop from last year’s $705.01.

    Imports of Retail stuff

    Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is now expected to total 12.5 million containers for 2009, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

    The 12.5 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units now forecast for 2009 would be a drop of 17.7 percent form last year’s 15.2 million TEU and the lowest since the 12.47 million TEU in 2003.

    Gonna be a Blue Christmas.

    Like I do every year, I will wait for the after Christmas sales to pick up stuff I need, usually clothing.

    Anyone see a Lexus commercial yet?

  106. chicagofinance says:

    For the month of November?
    Between today and roughly February 1st?

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 12:41 pm
    Chi [92], .That report indicates the first qoq decline in credit since the fed has been tracking They have never witnessed this before 1943, then again in 1951, 1954, 1958, 1974, 1975, 1980, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1998, .

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/hist/cc_hist_sa.txt

  107. chicagofinance says:

    In the data sequence, the critical issue is that there should have been a credit decline in 2001, but there was not. What worse is that credit actually increased almost 50% to 2008.

  108. BC Bob says:

    Chi [112],

    My bad. Meant to say the consecutive declines were the most since tracking, 1943.

  109. John says:

    Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence Fink said his firm was hired to manage assets for Swiss Reinsurance Co. and other institutions as investors are moving “record” amounts of funds out of cash.

    BlackRock gathered $3 billion from an unnamed institutional investor in Denmark and may get $11 billion from an undisclosed client, Fink said today at an event in New York organized by the Wall Street Journal. He didn’t say how much his firm manages for Swiss Re, the world’s second-largest reinsurer.

    Investor appetite for risk is returning as the U.S. Federal Reserve shows no intention of raising interest rates, assuring investors they’re “fine,” Fink said. The 57-year-old will lead the biggest asset-management firm when BlackRock completes its acquisition of Barclays Global Investors on Dec. 1.

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [109] jamil

    DoJ is now disavowing the subpoena.

  111. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    apologies if already posted, but I thought this was pretty funny (or scary):

    The Lloyd’s Prayer

    Our Chairman,
    Who Art At Goldman,
    Blankfein Be Thy Name.

    The Rally’s Come.
    God’s Work Be Done,
    We Have No Fear Of Correction.

    Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
    And Bankrupt Our Nearest Competitors,
    Just As You Taught Lehman And Bear A Lesson.

    And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
    For Thine Is The Treasury,
    The House And The Senate
    Forever And Ever.
    Goldman.

  112. HEHEHE says:

    I agree with Belmar John and Chi, we’ll hit Dow 12,000 before this thing collapses from its own weight. I don’t know why you’d expect things to change when fundamentals haven’t mattered at all the past nine+ months.

  113. NJGator says:

    BTW – Interesting local discussion about the article Grim posted @ #1 over at Baristanet.

    http://www.baristanet.com/2009/11/you_cant_appeal_death_but_you.php

  114. John says:

    who needs fundamentals when you can have FUN as a Mental

    HEHEHE says:
    November 10, 2009 at 3:43 pm
    I agree with Belmar John and Chi, we’ll hit Dow 12,000 before this thing collapses from its own weight. I don’t know why you’d expect things to change when fundamentals haven’t mattered at all the past nine+ months.

  115. HEHEHE says:

    Amen brother

  116. chicagofinance says:

    BC Bob says:
    November 10, 2009 at 2:07 pm
    Chi [112], My bad. Meant to say the consecutive declines were the most since tracking, 1943.

    Bost: I agree with your basic premise. If you look at 2000-01 until now, the relative levels and the impending pullback is going to be very meaningful. In the prior cycles there was only a de minimus dropoff. I think you can build the case for a drop YoY and possibly consecutive YoY, which is sort of the order of magnitude that would drive home your point. I agree it is certainly a decent shot of being there, but not definite.

  117. Thundaar says:

    Good site regarding the health of banks. Actually kind of fun to see which bank is ready to go next! New Brunswick, NJ banks are looking pretty ripe!!

    http://banktracker.investigativereportingworkshop.org/banks/

  118. LB says:

    (111) Anyone see a Lexus commercial yet?

    Do you mean the “December to Remember” events? God, those are annoying and just made you to feel inadequate… My favorite is the dude that rigs up the pulley system to lift the giant box revealing the new Lexus for his honey.

    Thanks. Now I have that stupid music in my head.

  119. yikes says:

    anyone get call of Duty today?

    (that’s a video game)

  120. yikes says:

    I truly think the impact of severance dollars and unemployment benefits is what is keeping this economy from total collapse. We have borrowed a huge amount from the loan shark, but soon he is going to want his interest, or else.

    Who is the loan shark in this scenario? And how “soon” are you talking?

  121. james says:

    SAS,

    Can you explain what these helicopters might be doing?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DofyeSOgvg

  122. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [128] james

    probably doing what I always saw groups of helos doing when I lived in Philly

    –covering traffic jams
    –covering car accidents
    –covering police chases

    There are a lot more efficient ways to eavesdrop on you than using helos.

    If I were you, I’d listen for telltale clicking sounds on the receiver when you are talking to someone. Dead giveaway that they are listening!!!!

    Of course, they could be covering the clandestine GTG of a known subversive group of militia wannabes, the NJREReport.com Irregulars.

  123. james says:

    Yeah, when I applied for my FID and the NCIS check there were a couple times I heard strange stuff going on with my phone. Only twice though.

    I dont think those were news choppers. We better be careful what we write. The Justice dept is demanding a list of ip addresses from an online blog.
    http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/09/taking_liberties/entry5595506.shtml?tag=mncol;txt

  124. New Jersey’s house prices should be able to climb back because the increase in salary in NJ has been decent: http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/107793/where-to-find-the-fattest-paychecks.html?mod=career-salary_negotiation

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