From the National Association of Realtors:
Metropolitan Area Existing-Home Prices and State Existing-Home Sales
Metropolitan Area / Q3 Year over Year Price Decline
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ / Down 6.1%
Atlantic City, NJ / Down 10.4%
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA / Down 14.1%
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ / Down 13.9%
NY: Edison, NJ -/ Down 8.9%
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY / Down 9.2%
NY: Newark-Union, NJ-PA / Down 14.8%
Trenton-Ewing, NJ / Down 15.0%
From the Courier News:
Central Jersey home prices dropped 8.9 percent in third quarter
Prices of existing homes in the region fell 8.9 percent during the third quarter, a Realtors’ group reported Tuesday, in a sign that the housing market has yet to emerge from its three-year-old slump.
The report would appear to be good news for buyers, who can take advantage of lower prices, rock-bottom mortgage rates and giant tax credits. But experts said the slow job market is taking a toll.
“There are a lot of things that play on the consumer’s mind right now, things they worry about that they never worried about before,” said Jim Brown, senior vice president of Kastle Mortgage Corp. in Freehold. “And it all has to do with jobs.”
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median price of a home in Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties was $343,800 during the third quarter, down from $377,300 the same quarter a year ago. Prices have fallen 17.2 percent since their third-quarter peak in 2006.
From the Record:
hile home prices continued their decline in the third quarter of 2009, several North Jersey real estate agents said Tuesday that they see signs that values are stabilizing.
The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that home prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, declined 13.9 percent, to a median of $449,700, from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. But prices were up from the first half of the year, hinting that home prices may be leveling off.
“Prices have definitely stabilized,” said Tom Steimle, an agent with A.W. Van Winkle in Rutherford. He predicted that mortgage rates around 5 percent and the extension and expansion of the $8,000 federal homebuyers’ tax credit will continue to draw buyers into the market, keeping prices steady into the spring.
“Some towns are not experiencing the decline that others are,” said Gary Silberstein, a Coldwell Banker agent in Ridgewood. “If there’s a strong school system, New York City transportation and a town center, the prices are holding more steadily due to high demand.”
From the Press of Atlantic City:
U.S. home sales surged 11 percent in the third quarter – and 18 percent in New Jersey – as first-time home buyers seeking the $8,000 government subsidy rushed into the market.
Prices rose compared to the prior quarter but remained down 11 percent from a year ago for the U.S. and 10 percent lower for Atlantic County, according to the National Association of Realtors survey released Tuesday.
Home sales in New Jersey were 8 percent higher than a year ago, while U.S. sales were up 6 percent from the year before.
The New Jersey Association of Realtors said the increase was caused by the federal government’s $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, which had been set to expire at the end of November but was extended and expanded through April 30.
“The jump in third quarter activity in New Jersey as a whole can largely be attributed to the summer and early-fall rush of first-time home buyers aiming to close in time to obtain the $8,000 tax credit,” Jarrod C. Grasso, association executive vice president, said in a statement.
From the AP:
Median home prices fell nationwide in 3Q
A real estate group says home prices fell in eight out of every 10 U.S. cities in the third quarter of this year as heavily discounted distressed sales made up 30 percent of all deals.
But home sales continued their climb, with quarterly sales outpacing the second quarter and the previous year’s figures, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.
The median sales prices of existing homes declined in 123 out of 153 metropolitan areas compared with the same period a year ago. Prices rose in the other 30 cities.
The national median price clocked in at $177,900, or 11 percent below the third quarter last year.
frist
“If things go wrong dear, and fate is unkind, look over your shoulder, I’m walking behind.” Frank
The Press of Atlantic City is trying to spin this data so hard, it became a jumbled up mess.
Those quoted paragraphs are damned near incoherent.
if the plebes here can see the #’s for what they are, why can’t the veteran newspaper people?
Grim
410 Park Ave
Midland Park
Comp Killer or Estate planing for Dummies
Yeah, when I applied for my FID and the NCIS check there were a couple times I heard strange stuff going on with my phone. Only twice though.
I dont think those were news choppers. We better be careful what we write. The Justice dept is demanding a list of ip addresses from an online blog.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/09/taking_liberties/entry5595506.shtml?tag=mncol;txt
410 Park Ave
Midland Park
Purchased: 9/15/2005
Purchase Price: $500,000
Sold: 11/3/2009
Sale Price: $390,000
Only 22% under the 2005 purchase. Prices don’t go down in Jersey.
Very interesting that the MSM is backing off from calling Ft. Hood a terrorist attack.
Whoooooohoooo
Mutha f#9’as. Upupup
Whoo hoooooooooooo.
Hung out with the boys tonight, nothing but hopium …….
Whoooooohooooooooooooo
Hoppppiummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!!
Suckas!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wow that felt good, everyone should try it!
what an underrated song.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AS-azpiamdU
4.yikes says:
November 10, 2009 at 7:23 pm
if the plebes here can see the #’s for what they are, why can’t the veteran newspaper people?
ad revenue hopes
yikes..that one was on one of my first cassettes made specifically for me by my techie geek stereo perfection brother.
I think Aqualung came next.
When I blasted it in the dorms in the early 80’s, time stood still.
James, since *they* are out to get you, and will monitor your posts, may be you should refrain from posting… please…
S
From the Press of Atlantic City:
Atlantic City casino revenue falls 6.5 percent in October
Casino revenue fell in October for the 14th straight month, but the 6.5 percent drop from a year ago gave the local gaming industry a glimmer of hope after double-digit decreases earlier this year.
Overall, the 11 casino hotels had gaming revenue of $323.8 million compared with the $346.2 million for October 2008, according to figures released Tuesday by the New Jersey Casino Control Commission. Slot winnings skidded 5.7 percent to $222.4 million, while table game revenue was off 8.1 percent to $101.4 million.
October represented the second consecutive month that revenue dropped by single digits, after September’s year-over-year fall of 5.8 percent. The declines have gotten smaller during the year, from 19.4 percent in March to 15.4 percent in May to 12.7 percent in July.
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start
The Obama administration said Tuesday that its mortgage-modification program has enrolled one in five eligible homeowners, a sign the effort is gathering momentum after a slow start. But so far few of those trial modifications are turning into permanent fixes.
The Making Home Affordable program has begun trial modifications for more than 650,000 borrowers since it was launched in February, according to data released Tuesday by the Treasury Department. That amounts to 20% of those eligible for the program. More than 217,000 trial modifications, or roughly one-third, were under way in just two states: California and Florida.
…
Whether the program will ultimately be judged a success will depend upon how many trial modifications become permanent. To receive a permanent fix, borrowers must be current on their payments in the trial program after three months and submit a hardship affidavit and other documents.
The administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December, but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation.
From Bloomberg:
Madoff Former NYC Penthouse Gets $1 Million Price Cut
The price of Bernard Madoff’s former penthouse apartment in Manhattan was cut by $1 million to $8.9 million after almost two months on the market.
The three-bedroom apartment, at 133 East 64th St., was reduced yesterday and has been offered for sale for 59 days, according to StreetEasy.com, a property listing service. The U.S. Marshals Service, which is in charge of the property disposition, confirmed the reduction.
“Based on the current market and out of the better interests for the sale of the property, it was reduced,” said Roland Ubaldo, a deputy U.S. Marshal in New York.
The median price of Manhattan apartments slid 8.4 percent to $850,000 in the third quarter from a year earlier, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in an Oct. 2 report. Three-bedroom properties plummeted 41 percent to $2.25 million.
The economy is FINE:
The leading 250 law firms in the US have seen more than 5,000 lawyers leave their practices during the last year. A survey by the National Law Journal found the top 250 were down collectively by 5,259 lawyers on last year, a 4% drop. The number of associates was down 8.7% while partner headcount was up by just under 1%
From CNBC:
Unemployment May Cause Loan Defaults in US: Zoellick
Stubbornly high joblessness threatens to trigger loan defaults and drag on consumption next year, hobbling a U.S. economy struggling to rebound from recession, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said Wednesday.
Zoellick warned that the U.S. unemployment rate, which jumped to a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October, will likely remain elevated in 2010.
“You’re going to have problems with delinquencies of credit card loans, consumer loans, people won’t be able to pay their mortgages,” Zoellick told reporters in Singapore. “Some banks are going to continue to be troubled by bad loans.”
Also from CNBC:
5% of Americans Plan to Buy a Home Next Year
Just one in twenty Americans say they plan to buy a home within the next year, and they’re most likely to be 34 years old or younger and living in the South or West, according to a survey released Wednesday.
Roughly a quarter of potential buyers said the No. 1 reason they would buy now is because prices have bottomed out. That reason topped bargain-priced foreclosures, worries about rising interest rates and a wide selection of homes.
The survey, conducted for Move Inc., reveals how Americans are responding to a nascent and fragile housing recovery after three years of staggering price declines. The percentage of buyers thinking of jumping into the market was down slightly from a March survey, but up about 1 point from a poll in June.
Hey look 5% of Americans are going to buy a home next year! 5% of 330 million thats alot of homes
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-pct-of-Americans-plan-to-apf-2743716756.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=
Can anyone explain to me why Goldman Sachs would upgrade REITs to a buy when it’s pretty obvious that the CRE sector is approaching the precipice?
sl
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125789937631442503.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Still @ 23
This might have something to do with it…
“Banks Hasten to Adopt New Loan Rules” WSJ
“Banks are moving quickly to restructure commercial mortgages under new U.S. guidelines that are more forgiving of battered property values and can help avoid bigger losses.”
Still from 24 – I see my link doesn’t show the entire article I just read. If you Google the title, you can find the complete text.
Thank you SAS, Confused in NJ and all other veterans on this Veteran’s Day.
Cindy
mark-to-fantasy! Got to love how they can “save” bad loans by Beinf allowed to ignore the market value of their so called assets.
I just need another hit of hopiym and a few more rounds of Mass Effect. Got to love hermaphroditic alien courtesans!
#23 – why Goldman Sachs would upgrade REITs to a buy
Has the Fed announced a plan to buy CMBS?
Hi Kettle – Say, aren’t you a vet as well? Maybe you know all of the veterans on the site. Mine wasn’t a proper thank you I am sure.
In answer to my own question, TALF is buying CMBS. Specifically, Goldman underwritten CMBS.
Cindy
I am a pretend vet. Never saw combat. I am sure any vet on the blog appreciates your thoughts as they ate heart felt.
Cheers
thanks all!
will look into it.
sl
Who says City workers never loose jobs? These NYC school aides will lose their jobs this Friday.
http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2009/09/16/2009-09-16_school_aide_cuts_skewed_so_poor_suffer.html
“Prices have definitely stabilized,” said Tom Steimle, an agent with A.W. Van Winkle in Rutherford. He predicted that mortgage rates around 5 percent and the extension and expansion of the $8,000 federal homebuyers’ tax credit will continue to draw buyers into the market, keeping prices steady into the spring.
“Some towns are not experiencing the decline that others are,” said Gary Silberstein, a Coldwell Banker agent in Ridgewood. “If there’s a strong school system, New York City transportation and a town center, the prices are holding more steadily due to high demand.”
I want someone to interpret this for me as having an 78 IQ has its limitations. Don’t give me one sentence vomit, I want a real explanation.
33 – Lost
My district is now facing a $20M shortfall. Maybe more when the state’s budget is reconfigured come January. Class consolidations and hiring freezes will no longer be enough. It is lay off time.
We were facing a $16M shortfall until the governor confiscated a second round of stimulus money to meet QEIA (low performing schools) obligations.
So now, under performing schools are being rewarded for their ineptitude.
Faculty Senate meetings are now spent numbering further cost reductions from 1 to 3. 1 – cut first – to 3 cut last. This is the 5th year with no raises. The next step will involve furlough days and a freeze of step and column. Then comes the pay cut and/or layoffs.
We sustained the $11M cut last year by using our reserves, consolidating classrooms and eliminating administrative positions. That sent us back to 2005 per pupil spending.
The unions are holding up any chance at the “Race to the Top” federal funds. Mine is a non-union district. We are now attempting to qualify for funding outside of the union districts. The pay is tied to performance – no problem we say. Others, well they are less than enthusiastic.
“The leading 250 law firms in the US have seen more than 5,000 lawyers leave their practices during the last year”
Hahaha LEAVE, I guess the legal profession is learning how to market layoffs to the media.
Senior associates in lagging practice areas have been toast. Moreover any firm out there that has maintained their Fall associate program for this year did it by forcing out current associates and staff. The rest of them have delayed start dates as much as a year or withdrew offers.
Big law bonuses, if one is given, will be half of what they were last year. Moreover they are all flirting with new comp packages for associates that will end lockstep salary increases. The idea of being an attorney leading to wealth is over.
The last agent I spoke to about a rental property said “You can’t believe what you read in the papers about prices going down. Prices in the best towns like Princeton, Montgomery and West Windsor are stable. You should consider buying before prices go up again.” I replied “you are absolutely right and that is why we are talking about a rental property.”
Gary – I call BS. Montclair arguably has all 3 and we are bonding $1.5M this year to refund successful property tax appeals
due to declining real estate values.
That’s for THIS year only. $1M was bonded for last year and at least another $1.5M will need to be bonded fopr next year’s appeals.
I am seeing plenty of sub-$500k listings come up in my daily emails. That’s so 2004.
“Some towns are not experiencing the decline that others are,” said Gary Silberstein, a Coldwell Banker agent in Ridgewood. “If there’s a strong school system, New York City transportation and a town center, the prices are holding more steadily due to high demand.”
Grim – 35 ended up in moderation. A response to Lost @33.
i was in glen ridge yesterday, how high
are the taxes on those large homes.
more than montclair?
“You’re going to have problems with delinquencies of credit card loans, consumer loans, people won’t be able to pay their mortgages,” Zoellick told reporters in Singapore. “Some banks are going to continue to be troubled by bad loans.”
The World Bank, on the cusp.
“Can anyone explain to me why Goldman Sachs would upgrade REITs to a buy when it’s pretty obvious that the CRE sector is approaching the precipice?”
SL,
The fed and a new accounting sham.
New Rules and More Lies Hide Cancerous Commercial Real Estate Loans
Commercial real estate is blowing up so what do regulators do? The answer of course is to come up with new rules and regulations that will allow banks to ignore losses.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/new-rules-and-more-lies-hide-cancerous.html
“5% of 330 million thats alot of homes”
Marty [22],
Pretty funny. In other words, 5% of the population, new borns to teens will be buying a house. Hilarious. Then again, with FHA standards, you may be on to something.
Gary,
I’m seeing houses in the towns we are looking at listing at 2003/4 prices.
I PITI the fools that bought at the peak.
Freedy 39 – Montclair is rapidly catching up. At least in Glen Ridge you still get services and a top notch school district for your money.
You can check out the taxes on those fancy places by using the record search at http://www.njactb.org.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/369201/Why-Jamie-Dimon-Wants-to-Silence-Paul-Volcker?tickers=JPM,GS,MS,WFC,BAC,C,XLF
The demise of Glass-Steagall
20 Healthy Foods
That Cost Less Than a Buck
Food prices are climbing, and some might be looking to fast foods and packaged foods for their cheap bites. But low cost doesn’t have to mean low quality. In fact, some of the most inexpensive things you can buy are the best things for you. At the grocery store, getting the most nutrition for the least amount of money means hanging out on the peripheries – near the fruits and veggies, the meat and dairy, and the bulk grains – while avoiding the expensive packaged interior. By doing so, not only will your kitchen be stocked with excellent foods, your wallet won’t be empty.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl/20-healthiest-foods.html
#34 You need to be in traiin towns, close to NYC so your job search is easier?
Well, I guess I should become a realtor since that appears to be a thriving business. Housing is stabilizing and holding steady in “desirable” towns. Even my 78 IQ can figure that out. BTW, my house was listed at 2004 prices but I just changed it to a 2005 comp. The contract stipulates that you must kill the squirrels and feed the rats on the property.
Janet is Yellen. For years?
Unemployment likely will remain high for the next several years because the economic recovery won’t be strong enough to spur robust hiring, Federal Reserve officials warned Tuesday.
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2009/11/10/2009-11-10_fed_unemployment_likely_to_remain_high_for_years_to_come.html
So if the stock market is, or is becoming, a bubble with no basis in reality, and the regulators keep changing rules that could lead to an implosion, like they are proposing with CRE loans, what’s to prevent DOW 20,000 in a year?
“Can anyone explain to me why Goldman Sachs would upgrade REITs to a buy when it’s pretty obvious that the CRE sector is approaching the precipice?”
A backlog of secondary stock sales and debt refis in the pipeline?
Oh, wait, banker-analyst coordination doesn’t happen anymore….
REITs are great investment banking clients – refinancing machines with zero work (most have shelf filings or are cut and paste prospectuses and sell themselves). You can literally do them overnight without even a roadshow. And most of them don’t hold tertiary malls in second tier cities in MI, CA, or FL as underlying assets…
#43 Don’t you just love it when they touch up the x-rays and then declare the patient cured?
If the below is accurate, our unemployment #’s are much worse,[revelation] than reported. BLS reports the establishment survey. Small businesses are not included in this survey, that’s the household survey. Last month the household survey reported close to 600K jobs lost.
One Theme Bob
“Small businesses — which held up reasonably well in the 2001 recession — have been clobbered by the downturn, accounting for about 45 percent of net job losses through the end of 2008, Lockhart said.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9042698
“what’s to prevent DOW 20,000 in a year?”
He,
I hope you are right.
“Don’t you just love it when they touch up the x-rays and then declare the patient cured?”
Careful. Although you’re talking about CRE, don’t give them any ideas that could garner bipartisan support for this $1.2B health care fiasco.
#51 Bc Which is why housing prices should rise, right?
If US stocks are valued in dollars, and the dollar becomes worthless, does it really matter how many worthless dollars the stock is valued at?
Confused [59],
Stop talking sense.
If they repeal galss steagall maybe my uselss section 20 consulting knowledge will once again be worth $500 bucks and hour. Go Charlie, GO!!!
This week marks the 10-year anniversary of one of the great bipartisan failures in modern American history: the repeal of Glass-Steagall.
On November 12, 1999, President Bill Clinton signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which repealed the Depression-era separation of commercial and investment banks.
If Mr. Silberstein the Ridgewood realtor claims there is demand, than why are there 92 houses available for sale in Ridgewood right now (as per the njmls),and 57 in neighboring Glen Rock, in the middle of November? Just saying.
#62 3b
With 19 sales in Oct and 7 sales last week Ridgewood has just under 5 months worth of inventory. So it’s not in that bad shape. Glen Rock is slower with 11 months.
61 – John
Did you catch these quotes @ 47:
“Glass-Steagall wasn’t regulation, it was common sense.”…
“Repealing Glass-Steagall was “obnoxious” and a bi-partisan “absurdity.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2234464/
“The Mystery of the Rising Stock Market” Slate from earlier in the week
U.S. based companies are becoming even more reliant on non-U.S. customers and operations for sales.
#63 Not arguing that. But Mr. Silberstein’s comment makes it appear that there is huge demand, and if that were so, than there woul be little to no inventory in either town, especially in November.
And funny there are still alot new listings coming on every day in the area I track, also unusual for this time of year.
66 – huge demand can be relative. there was no demand from mid 08 to early 09. now it appears hope and credits are pulling people out of the woodwork or at least giving that perception to people who were going to buy anyway. so now instead of 2 buyers competing for the 10 decent houses in town, there are 20 buyers out there, which is going to cause some sales of good homes. the other 82 listed houses are garbage at anything close to asking. True “huge demand” is when the garbage is selling. in my town that is starting to happen in the under 350k range.
I will dissent with the general opinion then.
I believe Mr. Silberstein is correct. Strong school system + NYC transportation + town center = strong demand.
Brigadoon houses are still flying off the market. A three bedroom house with only one full bath (no half baths, just one single bathroom) went into attorney review in one day last week. ONE DAY. The place has one bathroom people. BUT, its a 10 min walk to downtown and the train and you get the Westfield school system. The asking was about 9% over the price paid in 2004 I believe.
I do think you have to separate the men from the boys. No disrespect to Montclair, but its not Westfield or Millburn. I think THE top towns will continue to hold strong because (a) for Manhattanites moving to the suburbs, 1500 sq.ft of living space is still TWICE the size of the 750 sq.ft they are used to and (b) the buying competition are the ‘still-employed’ bankers looking to collect on their large bonuses any month now.
#43-“New Rules and More Lies Hide Cancerous Commercial Real Estate Loans”
Truly, unfriggin’ believable!
#68 Perhpas if NYC’s economy were strong than yes. But there are only so many bankers to go around. What good is being close to Manhattan, if good paying jobs are scarce. Prices in desireavle towns drop too, or I should say they used to; at least they did in the early 90’s.
On other point in the area I follow, more than few houses I had thought sold back in the late summer, are now coming back on the market,and many deals are still falling through, right up to closing. I believe clot can attest to that point.
IMO the only thing keeping the real estate market alive is the artifically low interest rates, and the silly 8k credit.
I don’t know about NJ but this is the problem in CA:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/10/news/economy/too.many.houses.fortune/index.htm?section=money_topstories
“There are still too many houses”
“About one in seven housing units was vacant in the third quarter, according to the Census Department. This year has registered the highest reading since the government began collecting such data in 1965.”
Bum Phillips when asked by Bob Costas why he takes his wife on all the road trips, Phillips responded: “Because she is too damn ugly to kiss good-bye.”
lol from the ticker forums:
A rolling loan gathers no loss….
Neighboring cubicle chatter – his wife works at Citigroup. More layoffs are coming apparently.
Excuse my ignorance but I have a question on $8K tax credit:
Is the buyer actually given a $8K check towards down payment/closing costs or, is buyer paying $8K less in following year federal/state taxes?
Seneca
let’s assume that demand is up. The catch is that a historically high percentage of these new mortgages are likely to default at some point.
100 home purcahes where 30% end up defaultng helps no one except a few investment bankers
fannie&freddie make up somethbglike 80-90% of the mortgage market at the moment and their portfolio shows they ate lendng to anyone with a pulse.
The current home sales market is like a speed freak. You may be juice up now but when you run out of crank. You ate worse of then when you started.
Once again, market churn for it’s own sake is a net detriment t all except the investment bankers. Towns, residents, schools, states, will all be hurt by the growing forclosure rate that is and will continue to be a result of the no standards governmnt back mortgage shenanigans
Orion,
It’s the latter.
68.
Seneca
“(b) the buying competition are the ’still-employed’ bankers looking to collect on their large bonuses any month now.”
I always chuckle when I hear stuff like this, as if every other person in north jersey is an investment banker working on Wall Street.
68 – agree with you on Montclair. but you lost me when you called Westfield a top town.
3b – its possible its not just the bankers but people moving up in the towns they’re looking in. new prov buyers moving to chatham, maplewood to millburn, westfield to plainfield, etc.
Chatham boro probably only needs a hundred buyers a year to create enough comps to keep banks lending and people feeling good about paying those prices. And anything that smells of a good deal prob has 3 or more buyers jumping all over it immediately so the prices don’t tumble as far as they should.
“IMO the only thing keeping the real estate market alive is the artifically low interest rates, and the silly 8k credit”
– agree and the sad thing is that both of those things benefit sellers not buyers.
EWellie, Thanks.
So that means Treasury will receive less revenues from this housing program, less from unemployed workers, less from bankrupt businesses, less from states and zero from empty houses.
Ben & Timmy declare: “Beam me up, Scotty!”
Good read from Dan. Thank you. Didn’t I make the same point yesterday?
Regardless, Macy’s spit out garbage today and the market is still going higher…..don’t get in front of the freight train!
Cindy says:
November 11, 2009 at 9:26 am
http://www.slate.com/id/2234464/
“The Mystery of the Rising Stock Market” Slate from earlier in the week
“Regardless, Macy’s spit out garbage today and the market is still going higher…..don’t get in front of the freight train!”
Chi[81],
This market could give a rat’s ass about Macy’s, that was so 2005-2006. The fed/treasury has left that game in the dust. They realize that the only hope is to correct the economic imbalances. They are on to the next game.
It’s a market of stocks not a stock market. I would not step in front of the locomotive. Not too worried about the caboose.
One Theme Bob
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/369694/Best-of-Times-for-Wall-Street-Worst-of-Times-for-American-Workers?tickers=^gspc,^dji,dia,spy,xlf,adbe&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
Chicago – I am attempting to follow the story of the disparity because I need it explained in pretty simple language.
For example – “Melt up” does not register for me. Does that imply that sentiment is headed in an upward direction so it will keep moving – up?
RE: “the housing market has yet to emerge from its three-year-old slump”
Is the price decline from a massive asset bubble a “slump” or a correction?
75 and 77 – I’ve heard that if you go FHA, you can get the 8k at closing via a short term loan settled when you file taxes to pay for closing costs or to add additional down payment above the 3.5% minimum.
#78 Agreed. As of 2005 for instance, 70% of family incomes in premier Beregn Co were 100k or less a year.
Stocks are going up cause they want to go up, don’t get in front of this freight train. Lets see 1% in money market or 1% a week in stock. Yea you are rolling dice big time. But someone who got smacked down in their 401k and moved to cash is jumping back in while they still can grab the rear of the moving train. Dopes think this time they can time the peak and jump out even though they could not last time, easy money has been made, but hey we saw this same stuff in housing in 2003-2006 jump in before the overpriced houses become even more overpriced. This is a movie we all knew the ending up back in mid March. Only those who waited too long on the popcorn line missed the first signs of green shoots
Problem is a stock recovery has little to do with a Jobs/Real Estate recovery, not that I care anyhow.
Too bad, they should join this site where we all make well over 250K a year and are strikingly handsome and hung like donkeys. I almost feel bad for those 100K folks, maybe I will put a quarter in their empty coffee cups.
3b says:
November 11, 2009 at 10:52 am
#78 Agreed. As of 2005 for instance, 70% of family incomes in premier Beregn Co were 100k or less a year.
Alpine, NJ – more surprisingly that the $4 million median home price in Alpine, NJ, is the median household income in Alpine, NJ, is $128,287.
So if a $128,287 income gets you a four million dollar home in Alpine NJ the folks in BC with a $100K income can easily afford 1-3 million dollar homes in plain old BC towns.
So the median house price was down another 8% in central jersey to 343K. That is still so far outside the realm of affordability for the mediam income family. Particularly with a mediam property tax bill in the 7K range.
Im still renting, maybe I’ll see one of you sellers next year!
What JJ said…..melt-up/melt-down; greed/fear; same physiological response…..the effect is intensified by the fact that there are only 8 weeks of trading left in the year AND many companies report results on a calendar year basis, so a lot of work goes into how the company will appear on it’s financial statements.
This year, cash will be viewed as dead money, so it needs to be parked somewhere that appears savvy and efficiently deployed…..
Cindy says:
November 11, 2009 at 10:46 am
Chicago – I am attempting to follow the story of the disparity because I need it explained in pretty simple language.
For example – “Melt up” does not register for me. Does that imply that sentiment is headed in an upward direction so it will keep moving – up?
it’s = its :)
Barbara – Not only is every resident of N. Jersey a well paid Wall St banker getting a big bonus, they are also all looking to buy a primary residence with their bonus.
90%+ of bankers already have homes. They may buy a vacation home somewhere with the bonus scratch, but they aint vacationing in Chatham.
“I always chuckle when I hear stuff like this, as if every other person in north jersey is an investment banker working on Wall Street.”
Not an investment banker, but at least one place where trickle down economics work is on WS. Typical admin asst earning $45/50k can get a bonus from the firm and then the three guys she covers are all expected to pony up another $10k or so each in a good year. Bang, there’s $40k for a downpayment and $60k of w-2 income which when combined with the cop/teacher/fireman husband pushes them toward the mid-$100s in income. Keep the mortgage conforming at three times and they’re buyers of mid $400k+ houses with a 10% DP. The $8k credit is gravy and maybe accelerates the purchase. If they banked a prior year’s bonus rather than spend it they’re buying at the $500k level.
You don’t need to know which FBO services the corporate jet to do OK.
Chi Fi, going to give crazy bond advice to you. Ambac bonds at under 25 is a buy, I think Pre-pack will give you 60 and you may clip one or two coupons.
Second, if Ambac or MBIA does a prepack, muni bonds insured by them will short term take a hit as irrational small investors may sell. If the bond is good on its own it is just as good without Ambac. That is a second short term buying opportunity.
Two chances to man up last six weeks of year and get up to 50% return for 2010.
“90%+ of bankers already have homes. They may buy a vacation home somewhere with the bonus scratch, but they aint vacationing in Chatham”
The more senior guys, yes, the bonus check can go for a vacation home.
Everyone else, especially the mid-level guys who are probably just seeing kids arrive, the bonus is move up or move out (of Manhattan) money. They are going to Chatham, Summit, Short Hills, etc.
American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche told the company’s board that he is considering resigning from the job he’s held for three months, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.
Benmosche told directors at a meeting last week that he was “done,” though he agreed to think it over after board members reacted with shock, the Journal reported.
The CEO is chafing under constraints imposed by AIG’s government overseers, in particular a recent compensation review by Kenneth Feinberg, the special master on pay in U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration, according to the people.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azOu5E8koJdU&pos=7
Sister was just laid off at Even Flo. She has a Masters from Southern Methodist.
More green shoots.
“Benmosche told directors at a meeting last week that he was “done,” …chafing under constraints imposed by AIG’s government overseers”
Good for him!!!
Even Flo, why would someone with a Masters from SMU sell car seats for a living?
All I know is that unemployment is rising, 38 stores are vacant on Ridgewood Avenue but house prices are stabilizing and activity is brisk. I also ate a slice of pizza last night but didn’t swallow.
Anybody know if it’s illegal to video the landscape while driving in any of the states?
Would that fall under driving with one hand restrictions?
Even Flo would be a great name for a drug for ladies with heavy periods.
No Flo Fo Yo would be an even greater name.
The government doesn’t need to provide bread and circuses.
Every time I try to make sense of this, the economy, stock market, international trade etc., my head just wants to explode.
For the average person, none of this makes any sense and there is absolutely no way to plan.
Nobody has to try to distract “the people”, they are willingly looking for diversions because if not, THEIR heads will explode.
lish, as cf mentioned the other day, anybody with brains is out.
It’s like A.C.
If you enjoy the thrill of gambling, go to A.C. or someplace where you at least get free drinks.
When my on-line broker offers me free cocktails in this market, I’m back in.
[15] sastry,
Just like my approach, but more direct.
I will say this; having him here makes me look less extreme.
Reed Smith announces that it is slashing incoming associate salaries from 160 to 130 in major markets. It is also lowering its billable target by 200 hours to 1700.
As I expected, the trend continues with new attorneys but this is a major move and others will follow. The drop in billables is a sweetener too, as it lessens the likelihood that folks will avoid Reed, or any firm perceived as a sweatshop, in favor of less stressful work.
There are two takeaways here:
First, this trend makes gov. and smaller firms more attractive as the salary differential is lessened. If you can get better QOL for close to comparable $$$, why not?
Second, it leaves midlevel associates in the salary bubble, and in danger. If 2nd-7th years can be replaced cheaply, they will be. Only stellar associates in the mid ranks will survive. So I expect a lot of mid-level cutting in the future. Most at risk are 2nd and 3rd years, IMHO.
91 – Well then thank you Chicago and JJ.
Re the Wall Street article – This actually makes sense to me:
“Globalization is changing the way we do business. It’s not a matter of U.S. companies exporting goods-burgers, sodas, cars, software – made in the United States to Beijing but rather, making goods overseas and selling them overseas.”
Not great for jobs but it helps explain some numbers.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
November 11, 2009 at 11:57 am
“Reed Smith announces that it is slashing incoming associate salaries from 160 to 130 in major markets. It is also lowering its billable target by 200 hours to 1700.”
Mentioned a few days ago I expect to see increasing rates of salary deflation. Why pay more when you can get a line of applicants for far less?
Green shoots.
“making goods overseas and selling them overseas”
Cindy [108],
Do I move to Guangzhou, seeking a job.
Robert Benmosche was hands down my favorite CEO. The stuff that came out of his mouth was priceless.
110 BC –
“Do I move to Guangzhou seeking a job”
Looks like it – huh…
http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/maximum-utility/how-much-is-full-employment/128/
Mark Thoma asks “Will there be a new normal for unemployment”
sort of the mother of all “structural adjustments.”
Nom,
Sad but true
[109] lisoosh
In 2000, when I was presented with an opportunity to go to BIGLAW for ridiculous money, I took it because I felt that this bubble could not last, and that lockstep would eventually die. I said I would ride it as long as I could, and bank what I could.
Both predictions, made 9 years ago, are coming to pass. Now it remains to be seen how they deflate the bubble of mid- and senior-level associates. Salary cuts are demoralizing and risk alienating high performers so I think that will be limited. Killing lockstep will help deflate the bubble prospectively, but for firms that can’t manage that slow a deflation, there will be cuts.
Now is the time to plan my exit from 2nd tier biglaw. Given the compression at the top end, gov. is starting to look attractive, and federal will give you a bump depending on your prior salary. It’s a hit, but one figures that the hit will come anyway. Better to get ahead of this and grab a chair before the music stops.
107- Interesting. 1700 billable hours is not too onerous. After taxes, maybe the difference between 130 and 160 isn’t terrible. I don’t know that smaller firms would be any more attractive though and my experience is that they are not hiring now. Clients of small firms (depending on they type of law involved) can’t always pay for lawyers services anymore either.
The FHA (remember from yesterday when they had less than %2 reserves?) are now relaxing their condo rules! That should help.
Nom – It’s not just law. IT is showing pretty extreme salary deflation, as are a number of other industries.
Banking seems to be holding on though :-).
Factotum,
Source? Dept?
et al,
I was helping my mother fill out her unemployment form and noticed that even though the benefit period is defined as 52 weeks, the maximum payout during that period is only 26 times the net weekly. It appears that one can only get half a year at full draw. I’ll read up more, but this was a surprise to me…
Also, some anecdotes:
Relative of a friend laid off from big law recently. carrying 2 million dollar apartment, sexy-time wife does not want to sacrifice their lavish lifestyle and he’s burning through life-savings at an alarming rate… the 2K doesn’t even cover their monthly dean&deluca tab.
Today’s true mortgage lending story:
Prospective borrower comes into office. Borrower already has contract in hard to buy the house he’s been renting (from, natch, his underwater landlord). Buyer has already missed closing date, and Time is of the Essence letter has been issued.
Processor runs buyer’s numbers and does a credit check. Due diligence turns up the fact that borrower hasn’t filed a tax return for 2007 or 2008. We tell borrower he needs to file a tax return, or no go. Buyer goes ballistic, and demands to know why he has to file taxes in order to get a mortgage.
Schump pulls Knob Creek out of desk and takes giant pull. It does not help.
Gary, I need your diazepam. Fast.
“Schump pulls Knob Creek out of desk and takes giant pull. It does not help.”
LMAO.
HE (48)-
Why isn’t Kentucky Gentleman on that list? I believe it’s about 23 cents for a 1.5 ounce shot.
Everclear’s a heck of a bargain, too.
And don’t even try to argue that whiskey isn’t healthy food.
“20 Healthy Foods
That Cost Less Than a Buck”
118- I am not sure what you are questioning. The total you get collect is 26 weeks of “regular” unemployment insurance. After 26 weeks is when the Emergency Unemployment Funds extensions kick in and there are different tiers (time periods) that you can get paid for, depending of a few factors.
#119 – You almost make me miss the mortgage biz.
My favorite was a guy who’s credit was so bad, who had so many late/missed payments that Experian reported the FICO as “Unalbe to process, exluded from model”. I had never seen that before and never saw it again.
Schumpeter,
Give the guy a box of crayons and tell him to draw you a pretty picture and then he’ll get his mortgage.
119 – send him to FHA
seneca (68)-
Only diff in the “very top” towns is that they will fall last, fall the hardest and fall the furthest.
The pain will be greatest of all, since all their inhabitants believe they are somehow immune to an economic collapse that will eventually dwarf the Great Depression in size and scope.
No one will be spared. No one.
35 Cindy
Sorry I’ve been out all morning. I think Gov. Paterson said we’re facing a $10 billion deficit. He wants to cut 4.5% in school aid for this year. I thought I read somewhere that the cut would be $223 million. This is on top of the cuts we already had this year. I don’t remember what it was but it was rough on everyone. I think he’s also looking at 10% cuts in health care.
Quite honestly, I think anyone who can hold on to a job at this point whether it’s public or private sector is very lucky. And I think its a miracle that these kids can graduate.
3b (70)-
A more acute and insidious kind of pain is settling into RE markets that even the water torture & torpor we were experiencing last year at this time.
In most of the affluent areas around me, it centers around the fact that there are absolutely NO buyers, NO showings and pretty much NO interest in anything other than obvious distress situations. The tax credit has dragged all the future demand forward, and the extension of the tax credit has been met with a giant silence.
The demand has simply been tapped. Now, it is time for a silent, nuclear Winter.
Another thing to consider about the “top towns”:
The residential RE stands a much greater chance of being reduced to worthlessness by destruction by bands of wandering, angry marauders.
Whine,
So after 26 weeks of 100% of net weekly benefit draw the emergency kicks in?
It was my understanding that after 26 weeks at full draw you had to wait until the end of your 52 week benefit year to apply for the emergency extension. In such a scenario, assuming 100% unemployment throughout the year, ones weekly net benefit is effectively halved.
It looks like I have it wrong, I’ll read up on the emergency tiers… thanks.
Maybe I can market myself to families in top towns, teaching Graydon and Ellery how to maintain a hard perimeter.
I talked to a realtor in a small town in Essex County who said the market is dead and there is little interest out there. $8k christmas present from Obama or not, I don’t feel that pressed to buy a house now as compared to Oct-Nov 2010.
As stated times before, renting does seem to be the new “in” thing.
Tell your sexy-wife friend for a little FWB action I will pick up the dean&deluca tab. You laugh but there has been a few articles about mistresses working for food. Hey a girls gotta eat.
Relative of a friend laid off from big law recently. carrying 2 million dollar apartment, sexy-time wife does not want to sacrifice their lavish lifestyle and he’s burning through life-savings at an alarming rate… the 2K doesn’t even cover their monthly dean&deluca tab.
John (95)-
I need to go back and check Revelations, but I’m pretty sure this is one of the signs of the apocalypse:
“Chi Fi, going to give crazy bond advice to you. Ambac bonds at under 25 is a buy, I think Pre-pack will give you 60 and you may clip one or two coupons.”
Then again, I might pull this play myself.
Stu (98)-
Evenflow?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SPMfr38fCA
tosh (116)-
Looks like FHA will be onboarding a few more tons of radioactive trash.
Schump…Can’t youtube at work. The proxy restricts our access. ’tis probably a good thing.
I’m guessing it’s a Pearl Jam video.
everyone is overpaid.
#94 I can tell you those 45-50k Admin spots are fast disappearing on the street.
Stu (138)-
I often crank up this tune to about 90 db’s on the drive home.
There was a couple of years where that band was the bees’ knees.
3b (140)-
I can verify that. You can’t believe some of the resumes I’m getting these days…unsolicited, of course.
Amazing, the rescue fantasies that even many of us here allow ourselves to indulge.
No such rescue is forthcoming.
#137 schump: Question. I know someone who is going FHA but putting 20% down,and yet he tells me they are still going to make him pay PMI. claims his credit is good too. Does that sound right?
Report: 10 states face looming budget disasters
Pew report says 9 states face budget deficits, economic challenges similar to California’s
By Judy Lin, Associated Press Writer
On 1:11 pm EST, Wednesday November 11, 2009
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California’s ongoing fiscal crisis has attracted national attention, but a study warns that nine other states are barreling toward similar economic disaster.
A report released Wednesday by the Pew Center on the States says Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin also are at risk of fiscal calamity.
That could mean higher taxes, more layoffs of government employees, increasingly crowded classrooms and fewer services in states that account for more than one-third of America’s population and economic output.
Most of the states face rising unemployment and high home foreclosure rates, and their revenues have dropped by double-digit percentages.
The analysis urges lawmakers and governors to take quick action to prevent economic catastrophe
#142 And there is no end in sight. This fasciantion with Wall St always amazes me. It always semm to be mainly the non- Wall st people who keep spreading that myth.
3b (143)-
Yep. That could happen.
PrePack is Wack, I got CIT bonds at 50 and I am getting PrePacked at 70, 60 in new bonds and 10 in stock post Pre-Pack. PrePack plays are the way to play the melt-up in bonds.
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 1:07 pm
John (95)-
I need to go back and check Revelations, but I’m pretty sure this is one of the signs of the apocalypse:
“Chi Fi, going to give crazy bond advice to you. Ambac bonds at under 25 is a buy, I think Pre-pack will give you 60 and you may clip one or two coupons.”
Then again, I might pull this play myself.
#132 Regfreshing that she was not doing the ra-rah all is well routine.
3b (145)-
You’d think after the last, epic Wall St swindle/failure that most sheeple would wake up and realize the vast majority of these guys are nothing more than coked-up, sociopathic preppies who have the worldview of a ninth-grader and the personality of John.
#146 Any idea why? he is asking me, I told him that I thought 20% down eliminates the need for PMI.
John (147)-
You are living proof that the times make the man.
The fact that you are 100% spot on with your call is also proof that doom is nigh.
Nom 114 – Regarding your exit from 2nd tier BIGLAW. Perhaps you can get a cushy gig in Trenton advising the state on how to go bankrupt.
I can’t shake this free floating sense of dread.
Now the House of Lloyd explains to you why deflation is good:
“As we pointed out recently, excess reserves at banking institutions have hit yet another all time record over $1 trillion, courtesy not just of the Fed’s burgeoning reliquification efforts via direct asset purchases, but also due to its strategy to wind down the SFP program, and keep the Federal debt level under the legal cap, thereby providing even more liquidity to banks, to the tune of$185 billion. Yet if you thought that this inability to pass liquidity over into the broader currency pool was something to be concerned about (you know, that whole lending to consumers thing), you were wrong. Or so claims Goldman Sachs in this extended expose on why central planning is in fact good for Communist America. Also, for anyone who still doesn’t understand how modern Fed-subsidized cash hoarding works, this primer should explain it all.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/over-1-trillion-excess-reserves-not-problem-according-goldman-sachs
(yawn) when does the market open anyway?
3:30 pm? wonder which way it’s gonna whipsaw today….
amazing the disconnect… I’m with you Barbara, I keep waiting for the meteor to hit…
sl
Hey Nom,
Once you get your government gig, can you find something in the state for Gator and I to do. Apparently, the only way to get one of these jobs is to know someone on the inside.
“Some Wall Street people really want to be thought of as intellectuals or deep thinkers, as wise elder statesmen—not just as people who make a lot of money. Clearly Paulson has some of these pretensions. Do you think he’s achieved it?
He made a brilliant bet shorting subprime. But as the book closes, he’s buying gold, which doesn’t strike me as a particularly out-of-the-box bet in this climate.
He’s very good at synthesizing and making some complex topics very simple. And he’s made it into a simple argument: the expanded supply of money and the fiat currency is under pressure, and what’s the only thing that holds up when the fiat currency is under pressure? It’s gold. You could argue that he hasn’t achieved that kind of renown as an intellectual, and I’m not sure he’s so focused on it. I think he wants it, but he is fascinated by big trades, and his whole life he has been. It’s not about the money—listen, he likes his big homes, trust me—but more importantly he just wants to keep making big trades.”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/221924
Whoooopsie:
http://tiny.cc/tbAsA
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California’s ongoing fiscal crisis has attracted national attention, but a study warns that nine other states are barreling toward similar economic disaster.
A report released Wednesday by the Pew Center on the States says Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin also are at risk of fiscal calamity.
sl
136: Thoughts arrive like butterflies
He don’t know, so he chases them away
“You don’t understand the problems in your own firm,” and he starts listing them. By the end of the lunch everybody else in the room was like, “Wow, John Paulson actually knows what he’s talking about, the Bear Stearns guys don’t. Instead of bringing my money back to Bear Stearns, I’m going to start shorting that stock.”
Schump [157],
Classic. Now that’s WS talent.
116: Good news for that guy who is the sole occupant in that Ft. Myers high-rise.
“Bank-owned units may be disqualified from the percentage calculation.”
Mutual Fund Flows are negative into Equity Funds,all the money this year went into Bond Funds, so who is buying?
Answer HAL 9000.
DOW 10k is a correction not a rally?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/172536-erosion-in-the-m2-m1-relationship-and-the-burgeoning-eurodollar-bubble?source=email
Sean,
More inflation;
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinese-oil-refining-shares-rise-after-price-hike-2009-11-09
BC – No new refineries have been set up in the US and Europe in the last 20 years due to strict environmental norms.
India and China are more than doubling refining capacity and it is not to ship the refined products here.
Re 160,
“Classic. Now that’s WS talent.”
Precisely why this year’s bonuses are an absolute joke.
At least in the past they actually had to work for it; now there’s less competition, the government’s backstopped their risk, and thrown a bunch of money at them to trade and they don’t even have to pay back all the stuff they dumped on the Fed first.
Sean [165],
Yeah, while we are printing and pissing money away, into deep black holes, China is making deals throughout the world; minerals, energies, materials and metals. Been long XLE and will hold.
One Theme Bob
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Stu (98)- Evenflow?
Strumpet: This is 2009. The drummer has Crohn’s disease…they have to stop the set every 20 minutes for some gloopies….
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 12:51 pm
No one will be spared. No one.
What about those with multiple personalities?
What the h@ll is PrePack?
BC Bob – Obama is headed to China, I wonder what his translator will say to him when he hear’s this?
Tāmāde hùndàn!
China Signals That It May Allow Currency to Rise Against Dollar
China sent its clearest signal yet that it was ready to allow yuan appreciation after an 18-month hiatus, saying on Wednesday it would consider major currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33850971
Barbara says:
November 11, 2009 at 1:35 pm
“I can’t shake this free floating sense of dread.”
I’ll third that after Gators second.
My stomach is in knots. Either something has to blow or someone is going to make it blow and it won’t be pretty.
Hey Geithner is in the front page of WSJ saying US wants a strong dollar so lets give the “inflation” talk a rest.
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 1:29 pm
3b (145)- You’d think after the last, epic Wall St swindle/failure that most sheeple would wake up and realize the vast majority of these guys are nothing more than coked-up, sociopathic preppies who have the worldview of a ninth-grader and the personality of John.
strumpet: I was having an argument with a Corporate Lawyer who graduated HLS. He was lecturing me that Depeche Mode was a gay band. I said what did he like in high school? He said the Meat Men…..I said, but they had the song “Tooling for Anus”.
I give them credit for coming out in 1983 with “One Down, Three to Go” which was about the murder of John Lennon…..
lisoosh says:
November 11, 2009 at 2:46 pm
What the h@ll is PrePack?
Prepackaged Bankruptcy
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/prepackagedbankruptcy.asp
very good
Lyrics to 1 Down 3 To Go
chapman shot him dead
plugged him in the head
no more slopehead wife to f-ck
no more squito bites to suck
lennon’s dead hip hip hooray
all his dues he know must pay
george, paul, ringo any day
will be dead we all must pray
a paunched out hippie fart he was
a pot smoking scumbag
bespeckled old scuz
his panface gookin’ f-ck so me stud
insurance cash all covered in blood
one year later
they paid their respects
prayed for his soul
then went went home & had sex
hypocrites all of them
the worst kind of drugged out phlegm
Wow, a Tesco Vee reference.
They pop up where you least expect them.
Fun fact; at the time Tesco recorded We’re the Meatmen… and you suck! he was teaching kindergarten!
I speak for all the husbands on these threads when I say that I believe your husband can take care of that for you….
lisoosh says:
November 11, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Barbara says:
November 11, 2009 at 1:35 pm
“I can’t shake this free floating sense of dread.”
I’ll third that after Gators second.
My stomach is in knots. Either something has to blow or someone is going to make it blow and it won’t be pretty.
clot: You inspired me.
I just wrote this to a client who is the Treasurer of a major publicly traded company…..
“You are the corporate employee equivalent of Crohn’s disease…….”
Enjoy!
(with my apologies to anyone of any religion who might potentially be offended at any time…..)
From Tom Gregory at HuffPo:
THE LLOYD’s Prayer
Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done
On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons.
And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
For Thine Is The Treasury,
The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever.
Goldman.
sl
Entrepreneurship is alive and well in NJ:
http://www.app.com/article/20091111/NEWS/91111072/1070/NEWS02&source=rss
[152] gator
They have an entire state complex of people doing that. But there is always room for more, if you know someone.
[180] sl
I posted that yesterday.
BTW, here is my improved version (the writer doesn’t know the cadence)
THE LLOYD’s Prayer (improved by Nom)
Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done
On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons.
And Lead Us Not Under the TARP
But deliver us from Feinberg,
For Thine Is The Treasury,
The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever.
Goldman.
Today’s Top 5 Signs The Recession Is Over
No. 5: AIG CEO threatening to quit
No. 4: Goldman Sachs trying another way to explain $20+ billion of bonuses
No. 3: Treasury Secretary Geithner back to pretending he wants a strong dollar
No. 2: Bear Stearns ex-hedge-fund managers acquitted
No. 1: Day traders are making money again!
Economic Collapse and California Real Estate
chi (179)-
Thanks. I try to spread goodwill and inspiration wherever I go.
And if I can’t, everyone can bloody well piss off.
Nouriel Roubini: Rapid economic recovery unlikely
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 3:33 pm
chi (179)-
Thanks. I try to spread goodwill and inspiration wherever I go.
Did you enjoy One down, three to go?
Meatmen reference, this is why i love this place
Who knew camel jockey’s $uck would have been so prophetic. Back in 1988 when I was first introduced to it, my teenage ears were in love.
this gem was just on yahoo, I guess the bubble is back baby
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/10-ways-to-increase-the-value-of-your-home.html
For next GTG lets meet Heavy Metal Parking Lacoste and do a tailgate
http://www.tailwaiters.com/default.aspx
Cindy 26
“Thank you SAS, Confused in NJ and all other veterans on this Veteran’s Day.”
Thank you.
The LLOYD is my Shepherd, I need not Quant.
He maketh me trade down the green backs.
He leads me behind dark pools of orders, he restores my capital.
He guides me in paths of front-running for his name’s sake.
Yea, though I trade through the rally’s with the ultrashorts of death,
I fear no rebellion. Thy TALF and TARP support me. You prepare tables and graphs before me in the presence of my enemies.
You annoint my government with spoils; my corruption overflows.
Surely goods overseas will follow me all the days of my life, And I will dwell in the house of the LLOYD forever.
(okay, I admit, it’s rough…)
sl
This goldman stuff would be funny if it made sense, why is a Jewish Firm saying a prayer written by Jesus for Catholics? Why didn’t they use Old Testament stuff?
chi (188)-
Catchy. Danceable beat. I give it a 93.
“Did you enjoy One down, three to go?”
Not as much as he enjoyed 2 Girls 1 Cup.
[192] still
Classic!
A study released Wednesday warns that nine states are barreling toward an economic disaster similar to California’s ongoing fiscal crisis that has been marked by IOUs and budget-busting deficits.
The budget woes could mean higher taxes, accelerated layoffs of government employees, more crowded classrooms and fewer services in the coming year for some of the nation’s most populous states.
Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin join California as those most at risk of fiscal calamity, according to the report by the Pew Center on the States.
Double-digit budget gaps, rising unemployment, high home foreclosure rates and built-in budget constraints are the key reasons.
#184 It may be over for wall st, for now. But it is just intensifying for main street. I get tired having to explain this to you over and over again.
My company just laid off 750 worldwide… that’s 19% of the global workforce! I still have a job but with no raise, no bonus, profit share elimination for the past 2 years. My expenses aren’t getting any smaller either.
I hope all this number juggling, smoke and mirrors, and corruption implodes on those creating it…I’m tired of this BS.
Collectively, you guys are really fuc*ing bumming me out today. I too can’t shake off this feeling of an impending meltdown. The fed ran trains on the dollar, tax credits have been distributed, artificial demand was generated and we are staring at 10% plus unemp, FHA housing bubble and state budget deficits in the billions.
Clot you are the biggest fuc*in tease and you need to stop this doomsday talk immediately. Imagine being repeatedly brought to the edge by your favorite gossip girl only to be wound down to start back up again, twice a day for three years straight…
I want the meteor already! Give me the fuc*in meteor already!! When is it coming? Else, I might as well sign on the dotted line and enjoy myself for a year. After all, in 2012 when I’m eating potato peels and drinking rye filtered denatured alcohol while providing for five people on my deflated salary, I’ll wish I’d gone out with a bang.
http://geraldcelente.tk/
This guys is worth listening.
Just for the record, I did Email Second George Bush in 2002 and told him IRAQ was a mistake, before he ever committed resources. He blew me off. The previous administrations beliefs that a secular IRAQ was needed to contain IRAN, were and still are, correct. I also side with the former Soviet Commander on Afghanistan, if you’re not willing to commit Genocide, Get Out!, you can’t win.
cant wait for cs release at months end.
activity in my area skidded to a halt on Sept 1 along with lots of asking price reductions and im dying to see the confirmation of that.
Gold To 5K-Peter Schiff on Fox Business-11-9-09
Just because the US Govt owns GM there is no need to email the President that the IRAQ was a mistake. Sure lots of stupid guidos drove IRAQs back in the day and they were tacky, but if Chevy wants to make an IRAQ version of the Camaro what difference does it make, you don’t have to buy one.
confused in NJ says:
November 11, 2009 at 4:39 pm
Just for the record, I did Email Second George Bush in 2002 and told him IRAQ was a mistake, before he ever committed resources. He blew me off. The previous administrations beliefs that a secular IRAQ was needed to contain IRAN, were and still are, correct. I also side with the former Soviet Commander on Afghanistan, if you’re not willing to commit Genocide, Get Out!, you can’t win.
confused: Let me guess. You were one of those experts who said that the Iraq surge cannot work.
By all accounts, something resembling current Iraq (not secular, but not hard-line islamic either) seems to be working ok – except Iraqis are worried that the current White House resident (who has been sending love letters to Iranian mullahs and who terminated funding for Iranian human rights groups) is going to pull out too soon.
Also, I trust US military commanders more than their Soviet counterparts in Afghanistan analysis. Besides, if we pull out there, Pakistan and its nukes are in mortal danger and Al-Qaida gets the control of the state again.
The bar keeps moving, so it seems, as we go from:
Real estate never goes down, to
The national numbers may be down, but not this region, to,
The region might be down but not this state, to
The state numbers might be down but not this town, to
The town numbers might be down but not this section, to
This section of town might be down but not this street, to
This street might be down but not this block.
And so it goes. In the end, everything is down, just not MY house.
Rembember the whole lawn is not green, the green shoots are poping up but the lawn is still mostly brown.
Howard Beale says:
November 11, 2009 at 4:22 pm
My company just laid off 750 worldwide… that’s 19% of the global workforce! I still have a job but with no raise, no bonus, profit share elimination for the past 2 years. My expenses aren’t getting any smaller either.
I hope all this number juggling, smoke and mirrors, and corruption implodes on those creating it…I’m tired of this BS.
Jamil,
I never read past the date stamp.
I just thought you’d want to know.
Zieba, second that. I think O is great and all that, but I feel that the recovery isn’t real. The GS and their ilk are making out like bandits simply due to the recovery in the markets — cannot find any tangible underlying improvement [only things I can think of are money pumping efforts by the govt].
We probably need a new type of bubble?
S
Schump (126)
>>their inhabitants believe they are
>> somehow immune to an economic collapse
>> that will eventually dwarf the Great
>>Depression in size and scope.
>> No one will be spared. No one.
Impressive that you maintain this viewpoint given the level of government intervention thus far.
Or maybe thats the very reason you believe what you do.
I just don’t know. Chifi still thinks renting was a brilliant idea yet is looking for continued snowball effect in equities. Very confusing.
Oil bubble affected my pocket does gold bubble have any effect aside from hedge on a falling dollar?
[212],
You answered your own question.
If you owned gold, the increase in oil would not have affected your pocket.
saw this on ZH and could only think… “very very Schump-y.”
It would be a shame for homeowners to struggle for years to avoid foreclosure, only to be taxed into BK by the states and counties. But that’s probably already baked into the cake.
Nobody is getting out of this alive. Nobody, anywhere.
cougar
sl
yo’me says:
November 11, 2009 at 4:58 pm
Oil bubble affected my pocket does gold bubble have any effect aside from hedge on a falling dollar?
More discounts from desi restaurants, since money being shifted away from food and to jewelry.
ahem….
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aVfjb05hVHY8
Ridin’ dirty
Chi,
How can that be with the SEC and everything?
Peter Cammarano supervises audits….
HEHEHE says:
November 11, 2009 at 5:26 pm
Chi, How can that be with the SEC and everything?
I’m going to take a minute to wine. We paid off DH’s car 3 years early. It was reported on my credit report but there was no FICO score increase. I don’t get it. I feel like the man just wants to f@ck us every chance he gets.
Green Shoots my A$$…
The only green shoots I see is thru govt spending…which is not and can not be sustainable for long periods of time without over-taxing the people and/or fudging the books. This is BS and needs to end.
Has anyone quantified the potential impact of this run-up in spending that the USGov is doing?
What’s up with Malibu Pete? Things have been quiet on that front.
This thread is effing depressing.
HEHEHE says:
November 11, 2009 at 5:38 pm
What’s up with Malibu Pete? Things have been quiet on that front.
He’s been working on relaxation exercises for his anus….he going to be someone’s slampiece…..
Recession Sparks Global Shoplifting Spree
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/08599193794400
safeashouses says:
November 11, 2009 at 5:50 pm
This thread is effing depressing.
You should see the presentation I am making at an employee lunch next week. The HR person’s response to the deck I submitted was WTF?
Malibu Pete reminds of Coconut Pete from the movie Club Dread, which brings it all full circle.
P.S. best meatmen song, Mr Tapeworm!
#226 chifi,
Tell them on the weekends you also mc weddings and bar mitzvahs.
howard beale,
Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland economy. What’s down is up, what’s up is down.
I’m trying to figure out who’s the mad hatter.
safeashouses says:
November 11, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I’m trying to figure out who’s the mad hatter.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_oTwEGiup_Wo/SkrxGS4-aoI/AAAAAAAAE3o/HRbfAGQeEHM/s400/Kneale_Dennis_.jpg
Here’s something for the board’s liberals, who feel strongly about making sure the government has more money:
“NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — You’ve probably heard about the country’s giant debt load – $12 trillion and rising.
Did you know you can help reduce it?
Under a little-known law enacted in 1961, Uncle Sam accepts tax-deductible contributions to pay down the country’s debt.
Not that the Treasury Department does much to publicize the program.
You can find it under the header “Accepting Gifts” in the U.S. Code. Or, if you’re not an avid reader of dusty legal books, you can check the FAQ section on the Web site of the Bureau of Public Debt, an agency within Treasury. Or flip to page 91 of the IRS’ 2009 Instruction Booklet for Form 1040.
Contributions made are typically small — under $100. But there have been a few humdingers over the years.
The largest single gift ever made was in 1992 for $3.5 million, said Mckayla Braden, a spokesperson for the Bureau of the Public Debt.
For fiscal year 2009, all donations totaled just over $3 million. That’s well more than what was donated in any single year in the decade prior. But it’s far less than the nearly $21 million collected in 1994.
The money credited to the “Gifts to Reduce the Public Debt” account in theory reduces the amount of money the government has to borrow to finance its debt. But the dent is not deep or lasting.
“We might have to finance a tiny bit less that week,” Braden said.
The nuts and bolts
So who are the folks who send Uncle Sam money of their own volition?
“Usually someone dies and leaves a gift. And many contribute regularly,” Braden said. “On average, we get five donations a week.”
Sometimes, she said, a large donation is made by an estate but is paid out over a number of years.
The names and addresses of the donors are not released. And blessedly, unlike most charities that reward you for giving by bombarding you with solicitations for more money, Uncle Sam will acknowledge your gift but then never bother you again.
There are two ways to give. One is to send a check directly to the Bureau of Public Debt, an agency within the Treasury Department. The address: Attn: Dept G, Bureau of the Public Debt, P.O. Box 2188, Parkersburg, WV 26106-2188.
The other is to include a check — separate from any tax payment you make – with your federal income tax return. . . .”
So, if you want Uncle Sam to have more money, rather than beggaring thy neighbor, and having to listen to me curse you for having to carry your share of government, you need only to look to your own wallet. It’s easy, and I promise, no one is going to tell you not to, especially me.
#231 chifi
LMAO
Can I pay down my share now, and be exempted in the future?
stu (196)-
That’s so wrong…
BC, Just learned US is one of the biggest holder of gold along with Germany and IMF. Is that true?
If so, thats the best reason to buy ive heard yet. Yet another reason to spark massive inflation shrink the debt, sell the gold, buy some big advanced weapon and then walah! we are the one and only world military and economic superpower again. Or something like that.
My cost basis is about 95. Ive been accumulating over the year on your conviction, and Clots too. Glad to see her moving.
Question now is when to sell this overvalued etf? And even at these prices, im wondering if anyone will ever be willing to buy the kruggers back, or will i be trading them in for squirrel meat one day?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html
plume (232)-
I’d like to poop in a box and send it to the IRS.
veto (236)-
That squirrel meat might be the difference between you living or dying.
Chi [216],
You can also visit Mickey Mouse wth 50% more USD in your wallet, yoy.
Did Bob Guccione shoot this photo spread?
http://tinyurl.com/yb4o8kg
Veto [236},
Yes, according to the US. I have asked for permission to visit Fort Knox, to view their inventory. Suprisingly, I was turned down.
240 Clot
You’re really flattering her.
BC (241)-
I thought they shipped Ft Knox to China.
Or leased it all to Lloyd and Jamie, so they could short the crap out of it.
BC, You should have told them you know sas.
i saw fort knox has the largest reserves but i wonder if thats in someone else’ name or its ours.
lost (242)-
Looks like an alpaca in a shroud.
Nice to see Mikey can work up enough energy for a good rant again:
“Let’s face it, Goldman Sachs should have received 2,000 doses because they have the largest accumulation of “high risk” people in one place anywhere in the world. The only problem is their “high risk” thieves are only “high risk” to the rest of the world.
I hope the 200 doses they got are defective and make these bastards sick as dogs.
Once again, Wall Street dumps on Main Street. And if it is your wife or sister or daughter that dies because she did not get the vaccine, you can blame Goldman Sachs, Citi, JP Morgan and the other Banksters that have received thousands of doses meant for pregnant women and children.
Shame on you Barack Hussein Obama. You deserve the middle name more than you know. And shame on the bums on Wall Street that could very easily invite high risk pregnant women and young children in for free vaccines. Shame, shame, shame.
Wake up America! You’re doomed just as I wrote two years ago. You will begging these Banksters for scraps in a few years. Wake up America!
I don’t post much anymore, but this really made me sick to my stomach. What in the world are you thinking about America? Wake up and do something. Anything. But don’t just sit there letting these guys r@pe your pension funds and raid the Treasury.”
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2009/11/defending-goldman-sachs-by-mike-morgan.html
Getting new life insurance. Two things happening worth mentioning.
First, it’s taking a very long time to get underwritten. The process is going on six weeks with three different companies.
Second, the agent mentioned today that it seems like everybody is cashing in their whole life policies. He said that the amount of redemptions was alarming.
The One World Government was on open display at the Capitol on Tuesday, as international U.N. staffers waited outside the room where Ban spoke to the senators. The secretary general had come with his own world government (armed?) security detail, who stood alongside the Capitol police.
Ban, wearing a gold U.N. lapel pin, unfolded his speech. “Less than a month from now, the leaders of the world will gather in Copenhagen,” he said. “They must conclude a robust global agreement,” that is “comprehensive, binding, equitable and fair.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/10/AR2009111015034.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
Veto,
I would need hours to answer your question regarding price levels. Quickly, there is potential for chaos upon the Dec futures, option exp. How many will tender for delivery and how far does the seller have to sramble to meet their agreements? It can possibly get real volatile. If you have big profits, in a short period of time, you may want to hedge if there is a huge move.
Besides option exp, Ben and Timmy’s soldiers, cb’s, are saying f-you, dumping the dollar and buying gold. The RBI, in one fell swoop, bought more gold than was sold all last year. This buy is not for speculation.
If you like, you can get my cell # from Grim. I would be happy to share my thoughts with you. Don’t know how beneficial it will be, I’m in a different vehicle, futures.
#246 How come he does not post much any more?
#249 BC Bob,
Do you have an opinion of DBA?
For you gun fans
Do you have Showtime? Have you seen the Show Lock N Load? Pretty funny show with hidden cameras in a gun shop in Colorado?
Hey Lost – Totally OT, but have you tried Soy and Sake in the West Village? Tasty, reasonably priced vegetarian Japanese and Sushi. Yum!
Just met a friend there for dinner tonight and then took a leisurely walk back to Penn to enjoy the beautiful weather.
253 Gator
No I haven’t been there. On the rare occasion I get to have dinner in the city, we usually go to Red Bamboo if its veggie night. MMMM Red Bamboo. I’ll have to check out Soy and Sake. Thanks for the info!
Bairen,
I like it long term. I think it will just slog short/intermediate term.
Sugar is a monster. However, corn and soybeans have just had a banner growing season. In addition to this, the brazilian bean crop is huge. No clue regarding wheat.
IMO, the best hope is a lower than expected 2010 crop along with a continued decline in the dollar. I would personally prefer to trade the components rather than the package.
thanks BC, i’ll stay tuned.
New Jersey: The Garden State, which has been plagued by years of fiscal mismanagement, spends more than it collects in revenue. The collapse of Wall Street, which supports about one-third of New Jersey’s economy, has only made matters worse.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/11/news/economy/states_economies/index.htm
jersey’s going to let this guy get a gun?
http://www.nj.com/news/local/index.ssf/2009/11/post_36.html
#255 BC
Thanks.
Yikes,
Sounds similar to when my grandmother obtained a handicapped license plate from the state of New York due to her ‘legal’ blindness.
Stu is a creative genius. I’ve never seen clot demure FOR ANYTHING!
235.Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 7:02 pm
stu (196)-
That’s so wrong…
245.Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 7:28 pm
lost (242)-
Looks like an alpaca in a shroud.
Where does that leave Janet Reno?
247.d2b says:
November 11, 2009 at 7:33 pm
Second, the agent mentioned today that it seems like everybody is cashing in their whole life policies. He said that the amount of redemptions was alarming.
d: For who, the agent? The fact he sells whole life insurance to people who would consider cashing it in means he needs to be castrated….
262 Chi – Is Clot Schumpeter? Who knew?
#
#
Schumpeter says:
November 11, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Another thing to consider about the “top towns”:
The residential RE stands a much greater chance of being reduced to worthlessness by destruction by bands of wandering, angry marauders.
ha
you’re the best, guy
i’ve got a pistol and shotgun for those marauders. maybe c4 if necessary
Sources: Reid eyes payroll tax hike on wealthy
Officials say one option would target income above $250,000 a year
WASHINGTON – Majority Leader Harry Reid is considering a plan for higher payroll taxes on the upper-income earners to help finance health care legislation he intends to introduce in the Senate in the next several days, numerous Democratic officials said Wednesday.
These officials said one of the options Reid has had under review would raise the payroll tax that goes to Medicare, but only on income above $250,000 a year. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers.
It was not known how large an increase Reid, D-Nev., was considering, or whether it would also apply to a company’s portion of the tax. President Barack Obama has said he will not raise taxes on wage earners making less than $250,000.
Story continues below ↓advertisement | your ad here
The officials spoke only on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to disclose details of private deliberations.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33871839/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
Gator,
I peek in and your last post hits me over the head like a brick. Thanks a bunch.
Got hopium?
From the BBC, has anyone heard this on US media?
ambassador in Kabul has written to the White House arguing against sending thousands more American troops to Afghanistan.
In a leaked cable, Karl Eikenberry expressed doubts about the competence of President Hamid Karzai’s government.
The message arrived amid intense debate over strategy, with President Obama yet to make a decision on troop numbers.
This dramatic intervention seems to put the envoy at odds with generals wanting reinforcements, correspondents say.
On Wednesday, Mr Obama he held his eighth meeting in a series aimed at refocusing Afghan policy.
Mr Eikenberry, a former US commander in Afghanistan, also raised concerns about corruption within the Afghan government.
snip
silver jewellery