From Default Servicing News:
Company Proposes Paying Homeowners Not to Walk Away
With tumbling property values leaving nearly a quarter of borrowers owing more on their mortgage than the home is worth, some may find it tempting to walk away even if they are financially able to keep making payments – either to get out from under the debt completely or to force the servicer’s hand for a modification. This idea of “strategic default” has become a universal concern within the industry, but one New Jersey company says it has a plan to counter such calculated flights of exodus.
According to the Loan Value Group LLC (LVG), it’s time to pay current borrowers to stay that way. The company introduced a new program this week that helps lenders and servicers identify borrowers at risk of walking away and implement an incentive program in which the homeowner receives a monetary “reward” if they remain current on their payments without changing the terms of the original mortgage note or reducing principal.
The Responsible Homeowner Reward (RH Reward) program was developed on a foundation of behavioral economics and employs patent-pending technology developed by LVG. The firm evaluates each individual borrower’s propensity to strategically default (as distinct from the risk of affordability default) based on a dozen criteria, including negative equity, income, and geography, and then determines the optimal size of each “reward.”
I think this would count as income? You would get a 1099 at the end of the year?
Don’t they mean paying debtors to pretend they are homeowners?
i cant wait for the bloggers to come out on this one “deadbeats” ,, taking advantage of
all of us who pay our bills.
screw the bank, default and tell em to stick
it.
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/14/goldman-goes-rogue-%E2%80%93-special-european-audit-to-follow/
Simon Johnson – Baseline Scenario
“Goldman Goes Rogue – Special European Audit to Follow”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/business/15housing.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
U.S. Housing Aid Winds Down, Cities Worry
Can anyone tell me what percentage of loans are
“strategic defaults” versus “dead beat defaults”?
I wonder just how many mortgages would be saved
by this program and would it make a difference
towards stabilizing home prices – I am skeptical.
things just get more and more ridiculous as the days pass… pay people (with taxpayer money) so they continue paying for houses they don’t own?
stop the bus I want to get off.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/retail-vacancy-rate-improvement-by.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+(Calculated+Risk)
CR – “Retail Vacancy Rate: Improvement by Subtraction”
I think this method was discussed here…
File that under “GDP improvement due to inventory build” or “unemployment improvement due to shrinking workforce”.
Found your blog post on google, great share
The Responsible Homeowner Reward (RH Reward) program was developed on a foundation of behavioral economics and employs patent-pending technology developed by LVG.
Oh, I get it, this is a joke, right?
sort of like payday loans for the deadbeat
homeowners.
what are they going to do for the commerical
loan defaults ? that’s next
Gary,
All they do is scour blogs for names and emails, and build a list on that.
Question is, how do we game the system to get the payola?
Bye Bye Peak Oil???
“The brains trust of the Pentagon says it is just months away from producing a jet fuel from algae for the same cost as its fossil-fuel equivalent.
The claim, which comes from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) that helped to develop the internet and satellite navigation systems, has taken industry insiders by surprise. A cheap, low-carbon fuel would not only help the US military, the nation’s single largest consumer of energy, to wean itself off its oil addiction, but would also hold the promise of low-carbon driving and flying for all.”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=13706
“…developed on a foundation of behavioral economics.”
That says about all I need to know.
What’s to stop the loser, er, ‘homeowner’ from agreeing to meet already agreed upon fiscal responsibilities, er ‘keeping current,’ accepting the doggie bone, er. ‘reward,’ and later flaking out as per his/her baser instincts, er, ‘defaulting.’
Seems like this is just throwing good money after bad.
@15 – that would be awesome. From your link:
“Researchers have cracked the problem of turning pond scum and seaweed into fuel, but finding a cost-effective method of mass production could be a game-changer.”
Hey freedy, better look out. The military is eyeing you up as a source for jet fuel.
yes and your mother as well
195 was virtually empty today between Rt 9 and 295. Christie should lop off half the governement workers just to ease the commute.
re #15 – This press release is more fluff for the now starving and stalled Green Energy programs begging for more Gov/Military Stimulus. SAIC doesn’t make the stuff, they subcontract to any of Algae Farm startups most likely Algenol/Dow or Exxon.
Algae has been researched to death at universities for the last 50 years in the US.
An F-16 uses something like 900 Gallons of Fuel on a flight. Not easy to make Bio-fuel, a single acre of algae can produce something like 3000 gallons but it is labor and needs lots of water and C02 direclty from Coal Plants. Costs range from $8-$33 a gallon.
If they somehow got the cost down to $3 a gallon then it must be some start up in Mexico supplying the stuff, I think Algenol.
Hughes 19 Then we could pay there mortgage, health care, put on welfare & give food stamps etc. Or let them starve in the streets. What do you think the gov would do.
Juice 20 It would seem we have plenty of labor & plenty of coal plants in the USA. Jobs & fuel in 1 swoop.
(7)
Where does it say they will pay them with taxpayer money?
Is this a genuine tax revolt in Colorado Springs?
~~~
Facing Budget Gap, Colorado City Shuts Off Lights
Like many cities across the nation, Colorado Springs, Colo., is trying to close a big budget gap. The town is shutting off lights and slashing budgets for parks, police and firefighters, but that hasn’t stopped voters from tightening the purse strings even more.
Most cities depend on sales taxes for revenue, and Americans just aren’t spending like they were a few years back. Across the country, cities will have to fill budget gaps totaling up to $83 billion through 2012, according to the National League of Cities…
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=123691065
re #22 – Mike the Gov Stimulus money for Green Energy Jobs is being spent outside the USA, 80% of the wind Turbines from the last bill were made overseas.
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=520923
joyce 23 Where else would the money come from!?
Juice 25 Figures those people in DC could F up a wet dream. For Christ sake is anybody watching the store.
Mike, stimulus is small potatoes, wait and see what happens with government run healthcare.
Rick santelli isnt happy about this treasury auction.
On Wednesday, February 10 2010, the US Treasury issued $16 billion in 30-year Treasuries. Here are the buyer data points:
Buyer Purchase Amount (%)
Primary Dealers 47%
Direct Buyers 24% (A RECORD)
Indirect Buyers 28%
“First of all, we see Direct Buyers hit a RECORD percentage of purchases. This is extremely bizarre and somewhat disconcerting given that we have no way of know who these buyers are. For all we know they could be the Federal Reserve itself or other US-Government entities buying “off the radar.”
gary (11)-
They should rename that company Quants Gone Wild.
al (29)-
The big direct buyer is the Fed. Why all the pretense and mystery?
Frankly, they should probably buy all the USTs they can to offset all the worthless crap on their balance sheet.
Considering we essentially went to war in Iraq to free up exploration and development of the oil fields in Western Iraq from the French and Russians, I doubt that the Pentagon’s “algae fuel” is anything more than a laboratory success. If there were real world applicability they would using it right now considering the sh*t ton of money they are having to shell out to keep the Afghan and Iraq ops up and running.
Of course, this in no way runs counter to my opinion that USTs themselves will eventually be worthless crap.
“First of all, we see Direct Buyers hit a RECORD percentage of purchases. This is extremely bizarre and somewhat disconcerting given that we have no way of know who these buyers are. For all we know they could be the Federal Reserve itself or other US-Government entities buying “off the radar.”
I thought this was already explained by Zero Hedge and followed up by Bloomberg. The Bulge Bracket banks buy the treasuries directly and the auction is declared a success and the Treasury then buys them back from them a week later. All smoke and mirrors.
Great holiday read:
“An article written by University of Tennessee professor John R Garrett, “Monetary Policy and Expectations: Market-Control Techniques and the Bank of England, 1925-1931” which describes in exquisite detail the gold falsification measures undertaken by the Bank of England in the interwar period in order to impact interest rates in a favorable direction, performed with the full criminal complicity of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, may mean paranoid “gold bugs” could soon be forever absolved of their “tin hat” wearing status as outright gold, and other data, manipulation by a major central bank is now proven beyond doubt. The implications regarding the possibility of comparable deceitful and treasonous acts by modern central bankers are staggering.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-bank-england-engaged-flagrant-gold-manipulation-interwar-period-new-york-fed-does-
Harrisburg is considering filing Chapter 9:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/muni-time-bomb-set-harrisburg-contemplates-march-1-chapter-9-filing
If you are in a Muni bond fund this is something to keep your eye on. Once one municipality does it the entire “immorality” of bankruptcy loses its sheen and more are certain to follow. The gubmint unions better WTFU.
HE (34)-
As good a theory as any. Just a giant circle jerk.
I wish the gubnor of some state would declare a force majeure (or whatever is necessary for a state to throw its arms up in the air and say, “we quit”) and start stiffing all its creditors.
A state can’t declare BK, but they sure as hell can stop paying the bills.
That would be fun.
Anything and everything is fair game now.
NJE 28 Agreed, that will be the boondoggle of the century. Billions upon billions of wasted & unaccounted for dollars. Oh by the way we have to borrow it. WTF are they thinking down there.
Sorry thinking & the Gov my bad.
Clot I’m suprised the “Economic Girlie-man” Ahnold hasn’t chosen the easier softer way.
Thank goodness that, that McCain guy didn’t get elected or things would be way worse! :o
The only difference between McCain and Obama being elected is that we’d have to see the half-man half-turtle Phil Gramm in the presidential photo-ops rather than the half-man half turtle Larry Summers.
I’m off to the gym to do my part to help lower health insurance premiums. You hear that Mr pack-a-day Prez and the rest of you cig-sucking obese KFC tub eating Lee Greenwood loving deadbeats?
NJ’s Gov. Christie Shuts Down COAH Panel for 90 Days
A state panel that oversees affordable housing availability in New Jersey has been put on hold for the next three months by Governor Chris Christie, who believes the panel’s proven to be, in his words, a failure.
The Council on Affordable Housing was created in light of 2 lawsuits resulting in what’s been dubbed “The Mount Laurel Decision” requiring communities set aside affordable housing. That council has been the subject of complaints over the years on both sides of the aisle. Democrats in the state senate are looking at a move to abolish COAH.
Christie appointed a new 5 member panel to review the agency’s effectiveness:
“No action can be taken by COAH of any kind over the next 90 days, while this task force does its work. And so, effectively, COAH has been shut down.”
The challenge here is to comply with the court’s mandate on the housing front while allowing municipalities to control their own development without answering to state bureaucrats.
232.Sam says:
February 14, 2010 at 1:01 pm
It really does not matter which Team Jersey the Governor is wearing…..NJ is in a mess. Prior Governors (D and R alike) starting during the Whitman term began pilfering the State workers pension fund and also the Unemployment Trust fund.
“The fault, Dear Brutus, lies not in our stars, but in outselves…” Wm. Shekespeare, Juluis Caesar, Act I, Scene 2.
The political realities of a state such as NJ requires that if a R is to be elected, it be a RINO such as Whitman. Present activity notwithstanding, I had little hope Christie would be better — though I am willing to be pleasantly suprized.
N.J. foreclosure rate drops 39 percent, report says
Foreclosure filings in New Jersey dropped about 39 percent in January from the previous month, yet still remained higher than they were in the same period in 2008, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac.
The firm — which tracks defaults, bank seizures and auction notices — said 6,146 foreclosure notices were served in the first month of the new year.
RealtyTrac doesn’t distinguish between notices served to commercial and residential owners.
North Jersey home prices down 5.5% in fourth quarter 2009, to median $434,000
The median price of an existing single-family home in North Jersey and the New York metropolitan area was $434,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 5.5 percent from a year earlier, the NAR said. Nationally, prices declined 4.1 percent in that period, to a median $172,900.
Prices in North Jersey and the metro area are more than $100,000 below the peaks of around $540,000 reached in 2006 and 2007.
Sales of condos, co-ops and single-family homes in New Jersey rose 34 percent in the quarter from a year earlier, to 135,600 units. That’s still below the levels of the housing boom, when yearly sales topped 180,000 in 2004 and 2005.
no state will default. there will be another “stimulus” before that happens. states and their unionized workforces are essentially engaged in the same sort of brinksmanship as the UAW was this time last year.
there was an interesting item in the WSJ a couple of weeks ago on how the gov’t employees now represent a majority of all union members in the USA. the major unions understand that the gov’t is their only avenue for growth.
it is a particularly problematic strategy since unionized gov’t workforces can essentially hold the public hostage by withholding crucial services that they gov’t has monopolized (e.g., public transportation, police).
moreover, because they do not have to function in a capitalist economy, there is no natural check on their compensation/benefits demands.
here is the type of showdown that will increasingly result in the coming years w/r/t gov’t unions:
Central Falls Rhode Island Fires Every High School Teacher
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/central-falls-rhode-island-fires-every.html
51,
WOW.
sl
Anyone have any thoughts on the SunRun program for solar:
http://www.sunrunhome.com/sunrun_home_solar/faqs/
It sounds like possibly a good way to get solar without a 90-year ROI.
@[51];
Good for them! About time some elected official found the spirit of RR and held a group of unionized public SERVANTS accountable for their refusal, in this case to participate in cleaning up a mess they themselves made.
It’s also a good idea to call their bluff of “Without us, its the end of the world as we know it!” (I’m looking at you, Timmy, Ben, and your band of Wall Street TARP so-called bankers.)
Even in Rhode Island, tommorow morning the sun will rise.
38.Schumpeter says:
February 15, 2010 at 10:03 am
I wish the gubnor of some state would declare a force majeure (or whatever is necessary for a state to throw its arms up in the air and say, “we quit”) and start stiffing all its creditors.
A state can’t declare BK, but they sure as hell can stop paying the bills.
That would be fun.
What happens if the majority of NJ Municipalities declare Bankruptcy, even if the State is not allowed to? Is the State not de facto Bankrupt, given that the Sum of it’s Parts are?
I think Gary alluded to this a while ago….
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Use-of-temps-may-no-longer-apf-2453922630.html?x=0
WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s not the signal it used to be.
When employers hire temporary staff after a recession, it’s long been seen as a sign they’ll soon hire permanent workers.
Not these days.
Companies have hired more temps for four straight months. Yet they remain reluctant to make permanent hires because of doubts about the recovery’s durability.
Even companies that are boosting production seem inclined to get by with their existing workers, plus temporary staff if necessary.
“I think temporary hiring is less useful a signal than it used to be,” says John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo. “Companies aren’t testing the waters by turning to temporary firms. They just want part-time workers.”
The reasons vary. But economists and business people say the main obstacle is that employers lack confidence that the economic rebound has staying power. Many fear their sales and the overall economy will remain weak or even falter as consumers spend cautiously.
sl
Another rat leaving the sinking ship?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/15/evan-bayh-not-running-for_n_462595.html
sl
oops… the (snip)
Sen. Evan Bayh’s office confirmed to the Huffington Post on Monday that the two-term Indiana Democrat will not be running for re-election in 2010, citing a overly-partisan climate in Washington.
The departure of Bayh, who has never lost an election either on the state or local level, leaves a gaping hole for national Democrats to fill. A top operative in the party told the Huffington Post that the decision was “last minute” and “personal,” seemingly not driven by prospects of defeat
sl
58
Live boy or dead girl? He’ll be outed in a week.
sl [56],
Temp employment on an hourly basis is the norm. No vacation days, no health benefits, no retirement plan and you share a “pen” with other workers… if a chair is available. If there is a holiday, like today, you don’t get paid. It’s a mish mosh of directionless jobs for as long the firm could use you. They like to call them “temp to hire” jobs. LOL! In fact, a family friend was layed off recently but hired back as a “contractor” for 30% less and no benefits. His wife has been out of work for 16 months now and can’t even get a cashiers job in retail. They have 3 kids and COBRA coverage which is nearing an end. You all will eventually be there and if you think otherwise, I have a house to sell you.
I’m tired of winters in NJ. My wife and I are thinking of leaving our homestate where we were both born, raised, and educated (at Rutgers). We’d plan to go to Weston, Florida (or somewhere with good public schools, a Jewish temple, and reasonable infrastructure for kids – sports, recreation, etc.).
I welcome your comments re home prices, transition, weather, etc.
FYI, I own my own CPA and Wealth Management firms, which I would continue to run down there. I’d give up a lot of my revenue growth to start over, but I’m only 3 years in the business, so better now than later.
Noah-
Good for you. My wife and I have also decided that we’ve had enough of the NJ climate. We’re moving to SE Florida at the end of this summer. I just need access to a decent airport, and there are three down there that fill the bill.
An additional benefit is that there is no income tax there, and the cost of housing is less than half what it is here.
Not a difficult choice for us.
# 15 HEHEHE says:
Bye Bye Peak Oil???
XON just said checkmate… Exxon Spending $600 Million on Algae Based Biofuel Research ..http://cryptogon.com/?p=9872
*is jelz of warmer weather moves*
Barb, been cool here in the fl keys. only in the 60s this week.
Several US Housing Markets Heading Toward Another Price Slide
Reverberations from the housing collapse continue to be felt as a number of US markets are heading towards another price slide. While the property market got a needed break in 2009, price recovery in 2010 will be hampered by a plague of foreclosures and upside-down mortgages.
While some individual markets have experienced a bottoming out and increase in prices, 29 of the 143 markets tracked by real estate sales and data services provider Zillow, are now showing signs of a possible double dip in home values.
The rate of borrowers with negative equity, where the value of their property was greater than the remaining balance on their mortgage, was 21.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009, up slightly from 21% in the third quarter.
But foreclosures continue to mount, as the number of homeowners that lost their home reached one out of every 1,000 properties, a new high in Foreclosure resales accounted for 20.3% of all US home sales in December, lead by Mercedes, California where foreclosure resales took a 68.3% share of the market, followed by Las Vegas, 64%, and Modesto, California at 62%.
65 njescapee
I know. my nj native Dad tells me that the folks are scrambling for blankets and sweaters, lol
HE (43)-
The only difference between Phil Gramm and Larry Summers is that only one of them has the reputation of being an idiot…while both of them most assuredly are idiots.
SG (45)-
I love Christie’s balls on this one. If he guts COAH and shuts it down, I will have to upgrade my opinion of the guy.
He sure doesn’t duck a fight. Gotta give him props.
We’re in for an exciting four years.
skep (51)-
I suggest that school district make Cindy the first person they hire when the re-staff the school.
confused (55)-
The only differences are semantic.
Got back from Park City last night. Flight was fine, car was fine parked at satellite lot in Newark (I cleaned it out so they couldn’t), so something had to be wrong, right?
Got home about 9. No heat. Stayed up all night tending fireplace. Service guy shows up this morning, cleans off a sensor and voila, heat.
I am in the wrong damn business.
Skiing was pretty good (last year better) and we had a great time. More snow here though, and I spent the morning digging out (would still be there if neighbor didn’t clear half my driveway. Good neighbors here in the slums of brigadoon).
Noah (61)-
You should be able to find lots of bankruptcy work in FL.
CPA and wealth management? Not so much.
New (62)-
You might want to inquire as to the prospect for jobs and you personal safety before you move.
I think FL will be the state where kidnap-for-ransom gets a foothold as a US growth industry.
Where there’s smoke, there’s GS:
Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) — “European Union regulators ordered Greece to disclose details of currency swaps after an inquiry by the country’s Finance Ministry uncovered a series of agreements with banks that it may have used to conceal mounting debts.
The swaps were employed to defer interest payments by several years, according to a Feb. 1 report commissioned by the Finance Ministry in Athens. The document didn’t identify the securities firms that arranged the contracts. The government turned to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in 2002 to get $1 billion through a swap, Christoforos Sardelis, head of Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency from 1999 to 2004, said in an interview last week.
“While swaps should be strictly limited to those that lead to a permanent reduction in interest spending, some of these agreements have been made to move interest from the present year to the future, with long-term damage to the Greek state,” the Finance Ministry report said. The 106-page dossier is now being examined by lawmakers.
Eurostat, the EU statistics office, gave Greece until the end of the month to provide more information on the swaps, which do not necessarily break EU rules, European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj told reporters in Brussels today. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings are also questioning Greece over its use of the swaps, said two people with direct knowledge of the situation, who declined to be identified because the talks are private.
‘Accounting Tricks’
“Greece used accounting tricks to hide its deficit and this is a huge problem,” Wolfgang Gerke, president of the Bavarian Center of Finance in Munich and honorary professor at the European Business School, said in an interview.”
73 – my niche is helping affluent divorcing women. Even with this economy, there is still a lot of wealthy people getting divorced in NJ. I assume the same is true in FL.
Noah (76)-
Get any side action off those cougars?
[61] noah,
If you go to FL, email me so I can get you on linkedin and my cabal of tax atty friends in FL.
I wonder how much FL divorce is caused by the wife’s realization that her hubby is no longer affluent.
Jews, Florida, tax attorneys and divorce.
Sounds like a great sitcom pitch.
So, I see I missed a lot.
Though I don’t yet know why, plg managed to piss off nearly everyone (though I saw that plg, Anon (or West) and I all agree on gas taxes—-weird).
3b — sorry for your loss.
Morph — glad to hear your ski wee is liking it. Should organize some Poconos days this winter, seeing as my expensive trips are done and they got a foot last week.
“I am skeptical”
No, you are the funding source.
Ben’s Deli, Boca Raton, early bird and cougars…
plume (81)-
Guys like plg are useful here.
We’re all so much more invigorated when we can identify a focus for our hatred.
No dumber premise for a TV show than a Miami detective with a Versace wardrobe and a pet alligator.
Golden Girls
“Seems like this is just throwing good money after bad.”
Well, then, it must become a legislative priority.
[79] schump,
Your comment reminds me of a Johnscapade.
Years ago, while I was working at Fidelity, I hooked up with one of the managers, who was a total JAP and proud of it. Things started to get serious quickly though everyone I knew was subtly suggesting I dump her.
After I got laid off in 1988 (result of the Crash of 1987), she dumped me because my FEP (future earning potential) was looking doubtful at that time. Hooked up with a real estate agent she met while at my friend’s party with me present. Cold.
The new future sugar daddy later ran down and killed a pedestrian while drunk, and went to the big house, whilst I did go to law school and, for now at least, commanded that six figure salary she was apparently willing to give it up for.
[84] schump,
I agree plg is in the minority, but I have my qualms about getting down and nasty with the ad hominem. For my part, I don’t like to say anything here I wouldn’t say to someone’s face.
At least PGC had the stones to show up at a GTG when we disagreed. Wonder if others on the left will do the same.
“The median price of an existing single-family home in North Jersey and the New York metropolitan area was $434,000 in the fourth quarter of 2009,”
It will be in the high 3s before the next presidential election.
It all sounds good but how is everything related together?
Bayh was a shoe-in and I think he does not want to share any blame if things go boom. He has been banging the drum about the need to rein in spending and reduce the debt, and the last time I saw him he was deeply frustrated thst most in congress are oblivious to the dangers of their spending.
“been cool here in the fl keys. only in the 60s this week.”
PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
thanks Comrade Nom Deplume – Will let you know.
78 – Schumpeter – my wife likes to see head shots along with a balance sheet to see what she’s up against!
” car was fine parked at satellite lot in Newark”
Nom,
Next time, save yourself the aggrivation. Just hire a limo to drop you off and pick you up at the end. We find that it does not cost much more than parking ouselves, plus the driver schlepps all the bags. It ia a great vacation investment.
Nom,
You know I always show up and tend to be lefty at times. Or righty depending on which way the wind blows.
The way the economy is looking though, you just might regret not supporting the left. They might one day black ball you from receiving food stamps and welfare.
Nom,
Do you use ABC off site parking?
Agree with Shoreguy about the limo on long trips, but the break even is somewhere around 8 days. I pay about $10 per day all inclcusive.
Round trip limo from Montclair ends up being around $80 with coupons.
how is it possible that homes in Bergen
can drop in Price. This is BC, close to
NYC, great schools, a high line SUV, in each
drive way , the wife with the pony tail,and
a shore rental
SG 48
The median price of an existing single-family home in North Jersey and the New York metropolitan area was $434,000
That is still about 6-7X the median family income for the area. that is not even close to stable. Income needs to triple or home prices take a significant haircut.
“my wife likes to see head shots along with a balance sheet to see what she’s up against!”
Nice wife! Mine gets pi$$ed if she sees a picture of another woman kissing me. She would shoot me if she saw a picture of a chick giving head.
Sara Palin. Cunning politician or cunning linguist? You decide.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/14/opinion/14rich.html
Ket 99 Since everyone I’m sure would agree that incomes will not be tripling anytime soon. That leaves 1 other outcome. Guess it’s time for another haircut. If people thought 08 & 09 were bad Oh boy they better get ready.
92 Shore: “Bayh was a shoe-in and I think he does not want to share any blame ”
You are cute. In most recent poll, Bayh had 44-41 lead against some old GOP retiree and his act of pretending to be moderate/centrist after voting for nationalized healthcare, stimulus and every marxist bill he could see, was not goin to work anymore. He saw the writing in the wall. He had zero chance of winning.
Who is this masked rider on a shadowy horse.
We looked at a Krapshack in Glen Ridge on Sunday morning. Our realtor (whose name won’t be shared here) and I got to chatting about the local real estate climate. Of course, she was pretty rosy and said things are starting to really pick up. I told her that this happened the last time the government threatened to remove their housing stimulus. I said that if the government actually went through with it there no doubt would be another leg down in property values. She disagreed. I’ll remind her of this during the fall.
HEHE 15
Peak oil not an issue anymore? Not even close!
First off you would have to compare EROEI and no biofuel comes close to oil.
secondly take a gander at this:
” Gabrielli states in his presentation that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates.”
http://www2.petrobras.com.br/ri/pdf/usp_01-12-09.pdf
The rate or depletion is accelerating at a rate such that regular significant new oil fields would be hard pressed just to maintain status quo. And that assumes that you have similar grades of oil and similar net EROEI. Both of those assumptions are precarious at best.
Also note that super giant field like those found in Saudi Arabia have not been found in over 10 years despite an order of magnitude more money being spent on surveying and development
Stu,
And the vacation FEELS like it has begun as soon as you get in the back of the limo, as opposed to after parking and getting bags to the check-in area. If something happens to the cr, big deal, it belongs to someone else who has an obligtion to get you to the airport. We started doing this maybe 10 years ago and have never looked back.
Mike 102,
Actually if the FED isnt careful incomes could triple in the next 10 years due to runaway inflation ignited by their monitization of treasury debt
Jamil 103 did hear that Bayh was going to have a rough time. Believe it was Dick Morris on one show or other going over all the races that are close.
freedy,
I don’t rent cheap.
Now, for a Y-chromosome Olympic break:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/more_sports/galleries/hottest_female_athletes_of_the_2010_winter_olympic_games_in/hottest_female_athletes_of_the_2010_winter_olympic_games_in.html
Shore,
I know what you mean, but the limo service has backfired on us once or twice. Nothing like landing after a long trip and finding out that your limo is not there and the taxi line is an hour long. Also, it sucks when they show up late at your doorstep for the pickup. Have used many different services over the years. The expensive ones are better, but I can ob only use them for business trips. What’s a business trip?
And, REALLY BIG news:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/02/southwest-aplogizes-after-director-kicked-off-flight-for-being-too-heavy.html
You know what would be funny? If a terrorist group attacked a teabagger convention.
So, a cannibal was walking through the jungle and came upon a
restaurant operated by another cannibal.
The First cannibal was feeling somewhat hungry so he sat down and looked
over the menu…
Tourist: $5.00
Broiled Missionary: $10.00
Fried Explorer: $15.00
Baked Democrat or Grilled Republican: $100.00
The cannibal called the waiter over and asked,
“Why such a high price difference for the Politicians?”
The cook replied, “Have you ever tried to clean one? They’re so
full of $hit, it takes all morning.”
Ket 106 Been waiting all day for you to slap down that algae fuel.
Shore 107 Agree.
Ket 108 that may happen but prices will go up with them. It’s the percentage of income not the price. Prices three times 10 times present income fine, 6-7 we are in the same boat. Then there are those pesky taxes.
Stu,
Bummer about the limos. We have always had luck. Of course, I have likely scr-ew-ed myself making that statement.
Stu 114 I don’t know if funny is the word would I use. On the other hand it would help them immensely, can you imagine the out cry.
I would oops.
Stu,
This hit the PRo Montclair yet?
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/BetterBanking/struggling-towns-printing-their-own-cash.aspx
Nom take the kids to Ski up my why. Closer and we have plenty of snow another 7 in tomorrow.
Ithaca has done this for years.
Grim,
120 stuck in moderation
(further reality check on algae biodiesel)
This sounds like something from Monte Python:
“It is, after all, perfectly legal for anyone to issue currency, as long as it doesn’t look too much like a U.S. dollar. Thus was born the Detroit cheer, a local scrip… Residents can also exchange it at a few area bars for greenbacks, but the cheer is vastly more colorful. It features a chiseled, naked Greco-Roman superhero (the Spirit of Detroit) towering Godzilla-like over the city skyline, cupping a tiny family in one hand and a sunburst representing God in the other.”
Well, Monty Python or Wayne and Garth.
why = way, brother I need a drink.
Mike,
Sorry if i took to long for the algae response. I could go one al day about it.
It could be a useful tech, but most do not realize the magnitude of difference between characteristics of the oil based energy supply and bofuels/renewables.
They are all energy sources but are not exchangeable in a 1:1 form. Noting can match oil except for a highly advanced nuclear (fission) industry, or we figure out industrial scale fusion (HA, not in my life time)
Ket Figured it would get under your skin ,just thought you missed it. Knew you would whack it if you saw it.Now for that drink.
This may make WW4 beer cry. Schmidts in a pint can! Have not had since high school. Interesting it was 3 bucks for a 6 pack of pints then (in bottles),now 449 for 6 pack cans.Saw today & picked up tastes oh well like Schmidts.
Or was it 2 bucks can’t remember. It was for lunch back then.
Mike,
It was two bucks for a six of Schmitty tallboys. I lived on them until I discovered PBR.
OK, that was a long time ago…
Shore[120, 124];
Company script has quite a checkered history. Only as good as the (AAA-rated?) company that backs it.
As for any city governments contemplating same (Brooklyn, South Bend, Piedmont), few things truly are “black letter law”; this is black-letter law:
“No State shall… coin Money” U.S. Const., Art. I, Sec. 10.
Yea it was 2, that is what I had for lunch money.God what was I thinking this stuff su*ks.
WW4beer almost picked up a 30 of PBR for $16.99 then thought you want that much sh*t beer. So I went with the Schimdts.
It is however in a beautiful quart & half beer mug.
Mike,
PBR 30 packs have their place, I suppose.
I remember getting something called Old German, brewed in Pottsville Pa (Yeungling’s bad Batch?) for about 4 bucks a case back in the day.
Now that was some awful tasting beer.
Should have went with the Ballantine Ale.
Ballantine Ale
My dad used to drink that stuff in the 70s.
Do you remember a thing called a beer ball? Big round plastic keg with a beer called Utica Club. (Genesee’s Bad Batch?)
Clot 74-
I take my job with me. I don’t have that many peers in my company, but every last one of them works from home, except me.
Most of my business is in Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and Kansas City. As long as I have access to a decent airport I’m good to go.
I had a reason to move to NNJ in 2006, but that reason disappeared in 2008 as the result of a corporate re-organization and some personnel changes.
As for the personal safety angle, I know it ain’t Madison down there. But then it ain’t Rio de Janeiro, either, which is where my wife is from, where we often vacation, and where I also go for business occasionally.
I’ve done a bit of research, and I think that Boca Raton is likely our next hometown. PBI is 30 minutes north, FLL is 30 minutes south. Crime is lower than many surrounding cities, for whatever reason.
We’re taking a few days of vacation down there at the end of this month so we can check it out in person.
Speaking of Rio de Janeiro…
Mmmm Carnaval. Tonight is the last night of the parades.
WW4beer Ballantine is good IMHO. Remember the beer balls but not what type was in them, just drank it.
105 Stu,
People here cr@p on Montclair all the time for high taxes. Glen Ridge is barely behind in terms of property tax. It seems like people leave Glen Ridge alone. Why is that?
Stu,
How could the Peoples Republic of Montclair possibly be allowing a deer hunt in Eagle Rock reserve????
The poor deer! Why isnt there a deer amnesty program of some sort?
New in NJ – What does Boca offer that Weston doesn’t? I need to be able to commute to Miami, FL or Palm Beach for meetings on any given day. Boca seems similar, but a little less commutable to Miami.
plume (89)-
Anything I say here, I’d say to anyone’s face.
Just ask my agents.
Noah (94)-
I love a practical woman. :)
Stu (105)-
If your agent is Sue Adler, you have to let me tag along one afternoon.
I also want to give her my suggestions for the ingredients in her special sandwich. :)
Hint: one of my toppings for the Sue sandwich is shredded and braised money.
beer (137)-
It was Utica Club that put me off beer for years.
Fcuking rat piss, it was.
new (138)-
One of those yentas catches a crook, she’ll kvetch him to death.
“I’ve done a bit of research, and I think that Boca Raton is likely our next hometown. PBI is 30 minutes north, FLL is 30 minutes south. Crime is lower than many surrounding cities, for whatever reason.”
Besides, you ever see a shvartze in Boca who wasn’t being pulled over?
mike (140)-
It may be time for you to get out of Sussex. Count me as worried about you.
“Ballantine is good IMHO.”
My MIL lives in Boca. She can decapitate somebody with that cane of hers.
I hope Montclair lets them hunt deer with a Thompson.
Goonsquad 141 – Probably because in Glen Ridge you actually get services and a top notch school district for all those taxes. Glen Ridge is a well run, small town with no ratables and no debt. In Montclair, you get bike racks and complete streets, and the Mayor and the Council get together monthly to have bonfires with the taxpayers’ money.
Schump 146 – Sorry to disapooint, but unfortunately, Mrs. Adler is not our realtor.
Gator (155)-
I am severely disappointed by that.
I will have to console myself by watching Donovan break Ashley Cole’s ankle again.
Donovan’s whack on Cole forces England to play Wayne Bridge next to Terry.
Nice going, Landy.
Lil Gator just told Stu “It’s okay, daddy. We can watch girl hockey.”
I’d like to know what John’s definition of “girl hockey” is.
Screw the Deatholympics. Champions League resumes tomorrow.
Barca is in trouble.
When you can’t even light your torch right, I’m not watching your damn Olympics.
Comment of the day,
“Europe is a sad case, really poignant, because it became such a darn nice corner of the world after the convulsions of the mid 20th century. Who, for instance, can spend two weeks walking the lovely ancient streets of Bruges or Orvieto, or Lisbon and not fall to their knees in overwhelming despair on return to the slum of Kennedy Airport? Europe rebuilt itself so beautifully after the war while America became a utopia of overfed clowns riding in clown cars around the plasticized cartoon outskirts of our ruined cities.”
Some anecdata that Atlantic City is dying.
Stu and I headed down to AC for a Valentine’s Day getaway on Friday night. Bally’s was running a dining promotion for their Diamond players in their high end restaurants. Stu called to make a reservation at The Red Pearl, which is their fancy Asian restaurant. They told him the latest seating of the evening was at 7:30. With some cajoling, I leave work early to make the 3 hour trip down from NYC.
We get to the hotel and find that all the restaurants have been shut down for the evening except the fancy steakhouse. I am POed – especially more so after I am presented with the Chef’s master vegetarian specialty – a plate of steamed vegetables.
If Atlantic City can’t even attract the Asian high rollers on a Friday night, there’s no hope for recovery.
clot 151 First beer/ale I ever had still like it.I don’t drink beer much,to filling doesn’t get the job done. Now Scotch or Bourbon is another matter , then I get picky.
Gator they gave you a Res & then closed the place?
Yup Mike. And the reservation was only made the day before. They didn’t even try to call Stu to let him know. I told Stu to complain to his host. We’ll see if he does anything. Harrah’s hosts are generally useless.
Gator wow it’s all over then , your right. Not that I thought any different but that is unheard of.Not even a call hmmmmmm.
Clot check out this link
http://www.smallbatch.com/lpa
Basil Hayden mmmmm!
Glen Ridge … no debt.
Ding ding ding!
Noah –
I can’t really comment one way or the other about Weston vs Boca Raton. I was just looking for someplace
1. relatively safe
2. close to, but not really on the beach
3. not too far from a decent airport
Proximity to Miami proper was not an important factor. If it’s important to you then maybe Weston would be a good choice.
Weston seems to have a relatively low crime rate, too.
After our little exploratory excursion at the end of this month we could come back with completely different ideas. Our ideas certainly have not ossified yet.
Grim we actually have a surplus here in Vernon.
gator (163)-
AC has always sucked. The suckitude is just more noticeable now.
Of course, if they can put a sports book in the Borgata…
mike (164)-
You should see the first girl I ever slept with. Doesn’t mean I went out and kept looking for her type, though.
“First beer/ale I ever had still like it.”
mike (168)-
Mmmm.
Clot 173 sorry to hear that saw mine not to long ago can’t say the same.Beautiful as ever, as a matter of fact looked better than ever.
mike (175)-
I wouldn’t necessarily knock my first. Probably good that she was physical and aggressive enough to handle a footballer (she rode dressage).
Definitely a little rough around the edges, though. Ye olde first time was on the side of the road on an abandoned street.
Clot as you say it is hitting the fan in your area. Watching the market here I can say the same. What’s with a lot of posters going to open houses all over priced or POS. You know my sit. I would be a fool to buy,but if I didn’t have it there are deals around that’s for sure.
Watching prices slowly creep down is about as thrilling as watching the View.
Long term what do you think is cheaper, having another kid or buying a house?
The house.
Noah,
If you haven’t alreayd, you might want to look into what’s involved in transferring CPA licensure to FL, if that’s necessary for you. Historically, they’ve been a bit territorial. Knew a few peolple on the west coast who had successful practices in your niche. As Clot points out, not as much to contest these days. Also, while there is certainly a critical mass of wealth, a lot of it is not based in FL (despite what the residency exemption, etc. would lead one to believe).
#180 mike
That’s what i thought too. Plus with a house you can always walk away.
just perusing Basking Ridge prices for the first time in months. Nice to see a handful of 3 bedroom townhouses in the hills listing below 500k. 2 bedrooms in no where near as nice developments were going for those list prices in 07
Safe, Mike
I vote for kid.
A kid can be a productive asset. General home maintenance, domestic duties etc. Plus if you play your cards right you can move in with them when you get back into diapers.
Yes they are expensive, but a house is generally a liability in old age where as a grown child can potentially be an asset.
safe (178)-
No. The View sucks more than anything on Earth.
At least it wasn’t in the middle of the road.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoHK6658kn8
And walk-aways are bottom-feeding deadbeats?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704479704575061392800740492.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories
I don’t even understand 95% of this gibberish…other than to say it gives me more than a bit of the impression that it’s no more and no less than Enron-type lying, cheating and stealing.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/titlos-llc-special-purpose-vehicle-downgrade-catalyst-trigger-which-will-destroy-greece
relo (187)-
Viatical settlements have been around for a long time.
When people started dying of AIDS, these deals were happening all over the place.
Come to think of it, if I suddenly ran into the first girl I ever slept with, she’d probably punch me in the nads.
Just that kinda girl.
‘Nite all.
Shoulder to the plow.
Dr. Bisutti told her 17-year-old niece the story of her debt as a cautionary tale “so the next generation of kids who want to get a higher education knows what they’re getting into,” she says. “I will likely have to deal with this debt for the rest of my life.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703389004575033063806327030.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance
clot: I am not familiar with the structure, but it is always possible to create cash out of nothing through swaps, or any contract for that manner. It the simplest terms possible, it would be the equivalent of being offered a 30-year mortgage at 5% fixed, but if you went back to the originator and said “how much money would you give me if I made the mortgage 5 1/2%?” They say $100K. It is an economic equivalence, but suddenly you appear to have $100K more. The gap is basically that the NPV of your mortgage is now an incremental $100K negative, but whose paying attention….
It = In
whose = who is
Why would anyone lend Greece money? They still haven’t fixed up all those old buildings over there.
Just think how many mcmansions they could slap up in their place
WSJ Editorial
REVIEW & OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY 16, 2010
The Continuing Climate Meltdown
More embarrassments for the U.N. and ‘settled’ science
It has been a bad—make that dreadful—few weeks for what used to be called the “settled science” of global warming, and especially for the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that is supposed to be its gold standard.
First it turns out that the Himalayan glaciers are not going to melt anytime soon, notwithstanding dire U.N. predictions. Next came news that an IPCC claim that global warming could destroy 40% of the Amazon was based on a report by an environmental pressure group. Other IPCC sources of scholarly note have included a mountaineering magazine and a student paper.
Since the climategate email story broke in November, the standard defense is that while the scandal may have revealed some all-too-human behavior by a handful of leading climatologists, it made no difference to the underlying science. We think the science is still disputable. But there’s no doubt that climategate has spurred at least some reporters to scrutinize the IPCC’s headline-grabbing claims in a way they had rarely done previously.
Take the rain forest claim. In its 2007 report, the IPCC wrote that “up to 40% of the Amazonian forests could react drastically to even a slight reduction in precipitation; this means that the tropical vegetation, hydrology and climate system in South America could change very rapidly to another steady state.”
But as Jonathan Leake of London’s Sunday Times reported last month, those claims were based on a report from the World Wildlife Fund, which in turn had fundamentally misrepresented a study in the journal Nature. The Nature study, Mr. Leake writes, “did not assess rainfall but in fact looked at the impact on the forest of human activity such as logging and burning.”
The IPCC has relied on World Wildlife Fund studies regarding the “transformation of natural coastal areas,” the “destruction of more mangroves,” “glacial lake outbursts causing mudflows and avalanches,” changes in the ecosystem of the “Mesoamerican reef,” and so on. The Wildlife Fund is a green lobby that believes in global warming, and its “research” reflects its advocacy, not the scientific method.
The IPCC has also cited a study by British climatologist Nigel Arnell claiming that global warming could deplete water resources for as many as 4.5 billion people by the year 2085. But as our Anne Jolis reported in our European edition, the IPCC neglected to include Mr. Arnell’s corollary finding, which is that global warming could also increase water resources for as many as six billion people.
The IPCC report made aggressive claims that “extreme weather-related events” had led to “rapidly rising costs.” Never mind that the link between global warming and storms like Hurricane Katrina remains tenuous at best. More astonishing (or, maybe, not so astonishing) is that the IPCC again based its assertion on a single study that was not peer-reviewed. In fact, nobody can reliably establish a quantifiable connection between global warming and increased disaster-related costs. In Holland, there’s even a minor uproar over the report’s claim that 55% of the country is below sea level. It’s 26%.
Meanwhile, one of the scientists at the center of the climategate fiasco has called into question other issues that the climate lobby has claimed are indisputable. Phil Jones, who stepped down as head of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit amid the climate email scandal, told the BBC that the world may well have been warmer during medieval times than it is now.
This raises doubts about how much our current warming is man-made as opposed to merely another of the natural climate shifts that have taken place over the centuries. Mr. Jones also told the BBC there has been no “statistically significant” warming over the past 15 years, though he considers this to be temporary.
***
All of this matters because the IPCC has been advertised as the last and definitive word on climate science. Its reports are the basis on which Al Gore, President Obama and others have claimed that climate ruin is inevitable unless the world reorganizes its economies with huge new taxes on carbon. Now we are discovering the U.N. reports are sloppy political documents intended to drive the climate lobby’s regulatory agenda.
The lesson of climategate and now the IPCC’s shoddy sourcing is that the claims of the global warming lobby need far more rigorous scrutiny.
“first time was on the side of the road on an abandoned street”
Somewhere down on a back street
Way down deep in a back seat
Is where I first learned how to moan your name.
While the global warming forecasts may or may not be true, I don’t think WSJ editors’ opinion on the issue should be considered authoritative. If the theory works out, the NJ RE problem will be resolved: Florida gets flooded, and all the people living there need to move somewhere. OTOH, most Jersey shore gets flooded, too. Houses in Watchung hills triple in price.
Mike and Gator, Hmmmm. Some interesting comments about AC. I’m wondering are they not getting the young crowd anymore? I wonder if the popularity of games have changed. These days, it seems a lot of people play Hold’Em at somebody’s houses and I think years ago there was more interest in going down to AC for the blackjack and craps but now that ESPN always has Texas on TV if this hurting the travel down to AC.
I wondif we’ll get stuck paying for debacle in Sydney.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/lane-cove-tunnel-debt-blows-out-20100215-o2yj.html
Have you got to employ a credit card to place the order?
If you don’t want to find yourself paying two or three times as much interest as you intended to, make sure the credit card you’re applying for has a fixed rate — not an intro rate. If you have damaged credit, you’re going to have to pay a higher rate. If a rate sounds too good to be true, it probably is.
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How long will it take to sign up for health insurance? There may be line-ups at the enrolment centre during peak periods, but the actual process takes only a few minutes. After signing an enrolment form (no medical information is required), you will receive a Blue Cross card and a copy of the The 2009-2010 McGill International Student Health Insurance Plan [.pdf], which contains detailed information about your group insurance benefits.
What will the role of the boards of health be during the beta test? Boards of Health will need to understand that the agency is part of the beta test. They will need to know that there are standards and measures that relate to how the department relates to them. They should be kept informed, and they should be involved in every step of the way.
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So many people with an opinion on the Tea Party – yet so little knowledge about what they actually represent or its political origins. If they are extremist then they represent a large part of America. They are Americans who don’t like how our government is throwing away our tax dollars and spending money we don’t have in this country. They started a grass roots movement to get a message to their government representatives. Don’t waste our tax dollars! How UnAmerican is that?
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The problem with this country is BOTH the Democrats and Republicans. Anyone who seriously thinks that one side isn’t corrupt or slaves to Corporate America hasn’t done an adequate job of paying attention. To the Republicans: The GW administration will go down in History as one of the worst administrations. They eroded your constitutional rights, expanded the power of the wealthy elite, invaded countries under false pretenses, destroyed diplomatic relations with the rest of the world, and spent money like it was going out of style. To the Democrats: Obama is a dud. He promised much and has turned out to be another corporate lackey. He made deals with big pharma to ensure you could not get your medication cheaper elsewhere, he flip flopped on military tribunals, he refuses to fix health care properly through nationalization or single payer, he populates his inner circle with more Wall Street insiders, he spends money on bailouts and useless stimulus packages.
I must disagree. Payday loan companies provide an important service for anybody that needs some quick cash before payday. In most cases if paid back quickly the interest rates or fees are very small. These companies also assist in check cashing. Often times the payday loans company gets a bad rap, but they do offer services to people that are in need that may not be able to get any cash to help with their cash flow problems. Use them to pay a bill due immediately then pay them back when you get paid. You just have to use common sense
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Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.
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just what goes up, should come down?
Excellent. Thanks so much for the post. -Kate
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You buy land you buy stones you buy meat you buy bones.
What is got over the Devil’s back is spent under his belly.
If you tell the truth you don’t have to remember anything. :)
Smile, it’s the second best thing you can do with your lips. :)
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