From the NY Daily News:
Want to roll in Snooki’s sheets? ‘Jersey Shore’s’ Seaside Heights, N.J., house is $1,800 a night
How about a roll in Snooki’s sheets?
For $1,800 a night, you can grace the ground zero of Guido – and that includes the bed where the grand Guidette laid her head.
The Seaside Heights, N.J., house where Snooki and the rest of the cast of MTV’s sleeper hit “Jersey Shore” partied the nights (and days) away is up for rent – and the Daily News decided to go take a look.
Lucky housemates can sit at the very table where Vinny and The Situation cooked up a lobster dinner or chat on the same duck phone that was the source of many a hookup for Mike and Pauly D.
“Oh, God, this place is sick,” said Kristen Steinhardt, 15, who drove more than 100 miles from Garden City, L.I., for a look at the summer-share Shangri-la.
“Snooki. The Situation. This house just blows my mind,” Kristen said as she walked around the rental – which comes complete with a New Jersey State/Italian flag-themed garage.
…
Loundy said he has received “hundreds” of calls to rent out the seaside party house – owned by brothers Paul and Daniel Merk – since first putting it on the market about a month ago.
…
“The demand to stay in the ‘Jersey Shore’ house is amazing. It’s booking up fast,” Loundy said. He even recently rented it out for a Guido-themed sweet 16 party and claims he has had some celebrities save a date or two.
Finding your inner Guido doesn’t have to break the bank. A group of 12 can rent the hair-gel palace for $150 a night per person, Loundy said.Renters must stay a minimum of three nights, and the price goes up as the summer heats up. Popular dates, such as the Fourth of July, can run as high as $15,000 a night.
first… well, cuz I’m f’in awake!
sl
From the Daily Record:
Route 10 corridor retail vacancies remain high
Bob Dawli recently moved his East Hanover jewelry business from a 3,800-square-foot shop to an adjactent store that is half the size.
Dawli, the owner of Rena’s Jewelry in the Marshall’s Shopping Center on Route 10, said that he shifted one store over when his lease was up, but stayed in the same strip mall.
The move freed another 1,900 square feet of retail space along the Route 10 corridor in East Hanover and Livingston. More retail space is vacant there than six months ago and the vacancy rate is higher than the average in northern and central New Jersey.
Although a survey by a commercial real estate brokerage firm found the retail vacancy rate increased over the last six months along the East Hanover-Livingston Route 10 corridor from 8.26 percent to 9.39 percent and along the Route 10 corridor from Morris Plains to Ledgewood from 8.91 percent to 10.1 percent, the overall vacancy rate in North and Central Jersey actually improved slightly.
Retail along other highways in Morris County during the same period fared better than Route 10. Route 46 from Montville to Rockaway saw its vacancy rate improve from 5.45 percent to 5.01 percent. And Route 23 from Butler to Wayne improved from 5.8 percent to 5.28 percent.
“It appears things have settled down a bit,” said Chuck Lanyard, president of The Goldstein Group, which did the survey. But he said the economic downturn is far from over and retailers will move cautiously in opening new stores.
From the Star Ledger:
Sears closing 2 N.J. stores in nationwide cutback
Sears Holdings said it plans to shutter 13 Kmarts and eight Sears stores nationwide, including two locations in South Plainfield and Marlton, citing poor sales and a weak economy.
The Chicago-based retailer said today the decision hinged on factors such as store performance, the economy and lease renewals.
“We continually evaluate our portfolio and make business decisions accordingly,” said Sears spokeswoman Kimberly Freely.
The closings, which were first announced to workers earlier this month, will take place May 9. Liquidation sales began Sunday.
Both New Jersey locations are Sears Essential stores — the newer, big-box format — and together employ 161 workers. In all, about 1,000 workers across the country will lose their jobs. They will be invited to apply for open positions at other locations, the company said.
From the Press of Atlantic City:
State Senate clears way for Revel tax deal
In a move that caught opponents by surprise, New Jersey senators voted Monday to ensure that hundreds of millions of dollars in tax breaks for the Revel Entertainment Group’s Atlantic City casino project cannot be overturned by public petition.
State Sen. Raymond Lesniak, D-Union, brought an emergency resolution to Monday’s Senate session to ask members to bring the bill up for final reading and passage, after a contentious committee hearing on the idea earlier this month divided union members from southern New Jersey.
The proposed law would affect any project funded through the Economic Stimulus Act and would prevent the public from filing a petition for a referendum on any project funded that way.
The change applies to Revel Entertainment Group’s project, which is in the middle of applying for a $300 million tax-increment financing deal with the state. The deal would allow Revel to pay just a quarter of its sales and room taxes over 20 years. The developers hope those breaks would make their property far more attractive to potential financiers of the $2.6 billion casino project.
From NJ Newsroom:
N.J. treasurer moving beyond $2.2 billion budget cuts
Amid a polite but tense exchange of words, the state treasurer told the Assembly Budget Committee Monday that the Christie administration has settled on the cuts and freezes it wants to take to close a $2.2 billion deficit in the 2009-10 budget and has moved on to confront a potential $11 billion deficit in the 2010-11 budget.
Treasurer Andrew Sidamon-Eristoff told the committee that the state Office of Management and Budget had been working to find solutions to the $2.2 billion deficit before the Christie administration took office to help develop the 375 cuts any spending freezes the governor approved earlier in the month.
…
Greenwald complained the administration made no effort to seek the input of legislators before making the decisions on the eliminating the deficit, telling Sidamon-Eristoff, “You could have picked up a phone.
“It may be over from a fiscal standpoint but it is not over from a real life standpoint,‘’ Greenwald said. “These changes did not include us and we are closer to the ground. The impact on some of these programs is real and severe.”
“These were the only cuts available,” Sidamon-Eristoff replied.
Frustrated Owner Bulldozes Home Ahead Of Foreclosure
Hoskins said he’s been in a struggle with RiverHills Bank over his Clermont County home for nearly a decade, a struggle that was coming to an end as the bank began foreclosure proceedings on his $350,000 home.
“When I see I owe $160,000 on a home valued at $350,000, and someone decides they want to take it – no, I wasn’t going to stand for that, so I took it down,” Hoskins said.
I hesitate to write this, but…
#69 – John from yesterday….
I know YOU know about bonds. That is exactly why the sentiment was so funny to me. Seriously, when I read the line: “Fcuk it, let’s make some money.” –
I thought of YOU.
Miami goes bust:
“The simple solution (and my recommendation) is for Miami to declare bankruptcy asking the court to throw pension promises and union contracts out the window.
Given that mayor Tomás Regalado got the endorsement of all the major city unions in the last election, that course of action, no matter how beneficial is unlikely to be on the table.
Politicians Buy Votes
The problem always starts with politicians buying votes as Regalado did, then having the gall to balance the budget on the backs of taxpayers (or in Miami’s case – cook the books to the point federal investigators are forced to step in).
If you are looking for half-truths, look no further than Regalado’s statement “We are telling the unions that we will not be adversaries. We will clean our house first, but then we will go to them.”
Given that Regalado is in bed with the unions, the first sentence in the above statement is easily believable. The second sentence is more likely to be a bald-faced lie than anything else.
One can always hope that Carlos Migoya, the new city manager will be willing to take bold action and force major concessions out of the unions. Unfortunately, the most likely scenario for Miami is for the city council to approve higher taxes while Regalado, Migoya, and the city council ignore real reform. If so, set a date for a forced Miami bankruptcy a few years down the road.”
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/miamis-city-manager-resigns-new-manager.html
which town in NJ could go bust first?
N.J.’s pension deficits hidden by accounting rules
If valued by the standards applied to private pensions, New Jersey’s unfunded liability reaches $145 billion, equal to almost $17,000 for each resident. Unless pension accounting rules are updated, taxpayers in New Jersey and around the country are in for a shock when the pension bill comes due.
But how do you choose the correct discount rate? Public pensions use the rate of return they project for their portfolios of stocks and bonds — in New Jersey’s case, 8.25 percent per year. Using this method, as of June 30, 2008, New Jersey’s three main pension plans had unfunded liabilities of around $32 billion. That’s about $3,775 for each New Jersey resident and slightly more than all state revenues this year. Since mid-2008, markets have declined, so we can expect that today’s shortfalls are even larger.
Academic studies discount public pension liabilities using the interest rate on U.S. Treasury securities. By that measure, New Jersey’s unfunded pension liabilities are truly staggering: around $145 billion. While New Jersey pensions report they have assets sufficient to cover 73 percent of liabilities, using proper market valuation shows these plans are only 38 percent funded.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704269004575073260976528540.html?mod=WSJ_Real+Estate_LeftTopNews
Vegas House Bargains Dry Up
“Supply is shrinking largely because of federal and state efforts to help millions of distressed homeowners avert foreclosure, which have delayed many likely foreclosures keeping the home off the market for now.”
“…just be patient – They’re coming…”
Clot – There is a federal program that helps with short sales – right? I cannot remember the acronym – HA_ _ – Not HAMP.
Anyway – Let’s get these things moving.
Economic Crisis, The Sovereign Debt Bubble
http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/realtytraclibrary.aspx?channelid=8&itemid=8520
Here it is HAFA – Any help, Grim/Clot?
Cindy (11)-
There are short sale streamlining provisions within HAMP for Phony/Fraudy owned or backed mortgages.
Cindy (13)-
We’ll see. A few of the larger banks have already been following the guidelines since late last year.
Like everything else this Admin cooks up, they do it on the fly and try to fill in the details later (once the unintended consequences pile up). It remains to be seen where the weaknesses are in this program…other than the fact that it makes short sales so attractive, millions of people may dive in.
In the big picture, there is no help, no free lunch, no magic do-over for anyone. Oblivion remains too hopeful a prognosis for a housing market facing final doom.
The really insane new idea is DIL-ing your house back to Phony/Fraudy, then renting from them while they attempt to market the house.
At the end of the rental term, you get cash-for-keys if you don’t trash the joint.
This is making Phony/Fraudy the biggest landlord in the US. However, they have no collectors, repairmen, service reps…nothing.
The play here is to accept the DIL/rent-back deal, allow Phony/Fraudy to hang a lockbox…then stiff them on the rent. It’d probably take them months to actually realize it, then get somebody to try and collect.
I also can’t wait to see the reception Phony/Fraudy will get when they go to court, seeking a writ of eviction. That should go really well.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/23/education/23tufts.html?ref=us
Youtube with your college admission application….for athletes.
Called to close my Citi card I used with Amazon/ paypal yesterday. (Sorry Grim.) Anyway, they decided to charge $60.00 a year unless I charged $2,400. and I only used it for on-line purchases.
I was a customer for so many years, it probably messed with my credit rating as well but I couldn’t help it. That was uncalled for. Never late a day in my life.
What a bunch of money grubbers.
There may be worse jobs in the world, but right now I cannot think of one other than the admisions person at Tufts who reviews the youtube applications. 1000 videos of GRaydon and ellory and why they are special. Uggh.
I’ll take a roll in Snooki’s sheets, as long as I don’t have to roll Snooki….
I’m not putting my head or any other part of my anatomy where that Jersey Shore crews been.
Serious question, the answer to which may be so obvious that in hindsight I’m embarrassed to have asked it…..
Plowing around the Fed’s $2.3T balance sheet, linked below.
Big items on the asset side include Treasuries of $776B.
Why can’t/wouldn’t the Fed totally forgive the Treasurys due them? Outright forgiveness to Treasury – ‘hey guys, we’re ripping up the paper, you don’t owe us anything’.
There are really only two ‘debtholders’ on the other side of the Fed’s balance sheet with exposure – currency in circulation ($932B) and the FRB reserves ($1.2T).
I understand the Fed can’t take a hit to the FRB reserve balances as that would bankrupt the banking system.
Currency in circulation, however, is an accounting artifice, the Fed doesn’t ‘owe’ it to anyone.
From an accounting perpective the Fed would be insolvent, as it would have a huge hit to equity and a negative capital account. Who cares? It’s no different than a huge intangible asset writeoff in a company. Creates a negative equity balance from an accounting perspective but doesn’t change the underlying business.
Would the f/x markets care? Don’t know. It’s not like your pulling dollars out of the market, and from an economic viewpoint you’ve just slashed the deficit/debt so in total the US is a better credit risk. You haven’t ‘defaulted’ to any third party – it’s just that the left pocket of the government isn’t moving money it was supposed to move to the right pocket.
What am I missing here?
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/
one heck of a guard dog
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/unleashed/2010/02/is-titan-or-giant-george-the-tallest-dog-ever-.html
left (22)-
It would be the death of all fiat currency worldwide.
“Full faith and credit” is a vague concept, but I think an action like this would permanently undermine whatever the planet thinks it is.
The endgame of all this would be rendering all paper currency the same value as Confederate money or Monopoly money.
…back to the barter system, gold, silver and tangibles used as instruments of commerce.
Therefore, I believe this will happen.
I’m in the camp that says monetization of debt is fraud.
So, when monetized debt is forgiven, that ain’t good.
Clot:
A picture to honor your new handle.
http://www.fpsteam.it/img2007/evilution/DOOM0072b.JPG
If I had a plasma gun I would give it to you….
If I had a plasma gun, I would use it.
Clot,
A more befitting weapon for a harbinger of doom
http://media.moddb.com/images/downloads/1/15/14466/crowbar_2.jpg
#29 – Rise and shine Mr. Freeman…
In a related note;
Dear Valve,
Where is Episode 3????????? It’s been 3 years!
Tosh,
Nothing says relaxation like beating your opponent to death with a crowbar while they’re armed with a plasma rifle!
Tosh
…There is also the Zen like experience of pinning your opponents body to the wall with a head shot from a crossbow and watching the corpse sway in the breeze….
Ah memories.
C: The proper vernacular for NJREReport is “greedy grubbers”.
18.Cindy says:
February 23, 2010 at 7:19 am
What a bunch of money grubbers.
#32 – God I loved that crossbow… /sniff
Seriously though, a 3 year wait for what was supposed to be ‘episodic content’ that came every 6 months is annoying. It’s the only game I keep any track of and it’s not even slated for an `10 release.
Geithner said that he wasn’t involved in matters of disclosure and that his former colleagues did the best they could.
That’s swell.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ax3yON_uNe7I&pos=10
New Jersey’s unfunded pension liabilities are truly staggering: around $145 billion. While New Jersey pensions report they have assets sufficient to cover 73 percent of liabilities, using proper market valuation shows these plans are only 38 percent funded.
looks like the NJ free ride is coming to an end. maybe. but is it too late? i still think the state goes bankrupt at some point.
Tosh
How i miss that deep throaty TWANG, followed by the subtle bone crushing THUNK of impact.
Did you know that a independent group ported HL1 to the HL2 engine? I didnt realize that until about 6 months ago. Maybe one day i will get to play it.
In a stark contrast, I had two NJ State employees (married couple) in my office last night. One works in Trenton and the other in Newark. They live in central NJ. The bust their a$$es on the job and are earnest and intelligent. They get to their desks by 6:30AM. The pull a combined $160,000 and they are worried that Christie is going to hack their jobs for various reasons. It is possible but unlikely. I wish we had more people like them in the public sector.
The = They 2x
#37 – That project has been going on for a while now. I’ve been sort of paying attention to it. I really want a chance to play it as well but that lat time I checked (say Oct or Nov) they still had a bit to do.
reports out this AM, saying housing is stable. I wonder
Another sublime headline from the NY Post…
City to street vendors: Urine big trouble
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/city_to_street_vendors_urine_big_CMCzweMfBnQyhT6xLuidXI
#41 freedy
I bet the same guy who coined “subprime is contained” thought of that one.
“Called to close my Citi card yesterday. They decided to charge $60.00 a year unless I charged $2,400.”
Cindy, i did the same thing on Friday. Pretty soon, i wont have a dime in any of those big banks.
And then im going to hudson city savings for my mortgage, even if i have to pay a slightly higher rate.
Veto Hudson is the way to go. Did one with them went smooth, no surprises.
http://www.mcsweeneys.net/links/panoramaexcerpts/Ali.html
A lot of humor here – from Naked Capitalism. But frustrating to read – and long. A must for the lawyers on board.
Veto @ 44 and Chicago @ 33 –
Bunch of “Greedy Money Grubbers”
S&P Case Shiller is out but website is down so i cant see the NY area…
U.S. home prices fell in December but were up when adjusted for seasonal factors, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as yearly declines continued to ease.
The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 2.4% in December from a year earlier, while the index for 20 major metropolitan areas dropped 3.1%. Both indexes dropped 0.2% from the previous month, although adjusted for seasonal factors, they increased 0.3%.
David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee, said that the housing market is “definitely in better shape” and that the pace of deterioration has stabilized. But the rate of improvement seen during the summer hasn’t survived.
“We are in a seasonally slow period for home prices, however, so it is not surprising to see better statistics in the seasonally adjusted data, where 14 of the markets and the two monthly composites all rose in December,” he said.
Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to summer of 2003.
Compared with a year earlier, Las Vegas continued to be hit the hardest, posting a drop of 21% in home prices. Tampa and Detroit followed with declines of 11% and 10%, respectively. The best year-on-year performer was San Francisco, which posted a 4.8% climb.
Month-to-month gainers were led by Los Angeles, which rose 1%. Chicago again fared worst, falling 1.6%.
Recovery in the U.S. housing market has been fragile. Demand for new and used homes, after strengthening in earlier months, dropped in December because of cold weather and continuing joblessness. Though housing starts sprang up again in January, an indicator of future groundbreaking fell. In addition, buyers sought to wrap up home purchases before a federal tax credit was set to expire in November, pulling some sales in earlier.
Veto 48
When the government has dumped trillions into the housing market, I would certainly hope they would see some sort of uptick.
While they may be able to play this game for a while, No business cycle has even been prevented from occurring. Perhaps their day of reckoning is 20 years out, perhaps 2 years out. Either way the piper will come a calling one day.
#48 I think sooner than later, certainly no where near 20 years. We can all talk about what the gov’t can do to interfere in the housing mkt. However that is easier to do when you do not have to answer to creditors like the U.S. does.
Gallup poll says U-6 is really about 20%, over 3% higher than what the USG says it is.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35535193
let’s just offshore another few million jobs to make it 25%
we all need a vacation
rumor is rt 10 borders to close and condos to go up.
How about that.
FDIC is broke and is about 30 Billion in the hole!!!
Dont forget that Citi now has the right to deny checking account withdrawals at any time….
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – The number of distressed banks in the U.S. rose to 702 in the fourth quarter, the highest level in sixteen years, according to a report released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Tuesday. That number is up from 552 at the end of September and 416 at the end of June. This is the largest number of banks on its “problem list” since June 1993. Banks insured by the FDIC dropped to a total quarterly profit of $914 million in the fourth quarter, compared with $2.8 billion in the third quarter. However, the result was significantly better than the $37.8 billion loss for insured institutions during the fourth quarter of 2008. Insured deposits reported full-year net income of $12.5 billion. The FDIC reported that its Deposit Insurance Fund dropped further into negative territory, reporting a $20.9 billion loss in the fourth quarter, worse than its $8.2 billion loss in the third quarter. The agency hopes to make up that loss through advance payments by banks of $45 billion in fees.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fdic-number-of-troubled-banks-rises-to-702-2010-02-23-100440
#49
at the end of the day, it seems to me that our gov’t has demonstrated its willingness to prop up housing no matter what the cost. this was explicit in their removing the cap on Fan and Fred in December. So to say that housing will collapse notwithstanding this is really a bet that the U.S. gov’t will fail. I think such a bet is pointless because even if you are right, we will all be so screwed that house prices will be the least of our concern. I think the more sensible approach is to believe that they will succeed, more or less, as they have to this point in stabilizing prices.
The wife and I have decided to not pursue the home we liked in Florham Park. Although it was the best fit for us that we have seen so far in our year long search, we both agree that waiting until the impact of the supposed removal of the MBS buying and the homebuyer credit could be a major game changer in property values going forward. All the meanwhile, we are saving like MFers and will continue to build up our liquid assets as we wait to gauge the impact. I suppose you could say that we are putting our money where our mouths are. I will say…that $6300 tax bill was definitely attractive. If the government does extend the MBS and renews the credit, we will probably just bite the bullet and will end up buying or renting in the late Summer.
My crystal ball says that seasonal factors combined with the impact of everyone jumping in before the credit runs out will appear to the sheeple and their press as if a housing recovery is underway. We won’t see the impact of the removal of the false floor in housing at least until mid June as there is a significant lag time for the statistics to be reported. My biggest fear is that the short-term boost in home sales could start a cycle of fear that housing prices will go recover as mortgage rates rise that this feeds on itself for a while. This would blow. We really would like to just get settled in to a new place already, but won’t get fooled again.
#55
FDIC may be broke on paper but they have an unlimited line of credit from the treasury.
unlimited from the taxpayers. they did that in trenton.
where are headed from here.
56 Skeptic.
Nations have failed before when they tried to prevent business cycles. The US would not be the first to do so and would not be the last.
I am not “betting” on this per se. I am simply not willing to spend the % of my income needed i order to buy a toxic chinese mcmansions. As such i will continue to rent unless i find something i feel meets my personal and financial requirements.
The Debt game the USG is currently playing is essentially Russian roulette, as someone is going to eat a bullet, be it the USG, US citizens or the world ala WWIII.
I am not happy or excited about this. I simply try to have a basic understanding of what may be coming so that i can attempt to navigate it to the best of my ability.
The debts we are currently running are simply beyond our ability to pay back at this point. Even if we play the inflation game to wipe out the value of said debts, things still get very ugly for you and me as the global market place will fall apart in such a scenario.
Its not the end of the world, but its very ugly.
the question is how long are you willing to wait? are you willing to wait for the gov’t to pull all of the stimulus? who knows how long that will be? are you waiting for rates to rise to flush out all of the marginal buyers? what if sellers can’t/won’t cut prices despite this? are you waiting for all of the shadow inventory to hit the market? how do you know the zombie banks won’t just keep it hidden for a decade like Japan? All of the things we would like to happen are the opposite of what has transpired over the past 1.5 – 2 yrs. We were right in 2005/06 but strategies need to take into account changing dynamics.
Ket, 3b,
This board has changed from housing bubble sitting to us fnancial collapse sitting.
This is not good.
I just want a reasonable price for a 4br.
Clot/Doom
You’ll love this, the US is going to be forced to bail out greece and potentially a number of othher euro nations
…In one study analysts from the major French bank BNP Paribas referred to market-rumors that Greek banks had insured a large sum by CDS. If this is correct, then the payment protection they have provided is worth nothing. Greek banks hold State debt of over 40 billion euros. This corresponds roughly to the entire amount of equity in the Greek credit market. A bankruptcy of the State would lead to a collapse of the banking system….
….London investment bankers name AIG as a further CDS-seller. That company had to be nationalized during the financial crisis due to its having written insolvency insurance on American mortgages. This debt-load would have led to the collapse of the world’s biggest insurer. Prior to the financial crisis AIG is said to have widely held State credit-risk. If yet-larger insurance positions on Greece exist, then the American government would have a strong interest in preventing that country’s insolvency…….
http://www.eurosavant.com/2010/02/21/cds-just-another-evanescent-bubble/
Veto Don’t hold your breath unless you want to come to the hinterlands. Extend & pretend till hell freezes over.
“I think the more sensible approach is to believe that they will succeed, more or less, as they have to this point in stabilizing prices.”
Skeptic, i tend to agree with you at 56, but i didnt want to say all that because it usually starts WWIII in here to suggest the dominos wont continue to collapse the whole economy.
Im happy with this mini collapse. If we buy today, at a 2003 price, and prices go up from here, the wait was worth it imo.
Skeptic,
What Veto Said: I just want a reasonable price for a 4br.
If that means i rent for the next 10 years, then so be it. I will save the difference.
While i would like to buy and customize my home to my wishes, i will not compromise my family’s finances to do so. If renting is the only way to maintain my family’s finances in what my wife and I consider an acceptable manner, then so be it.
To answer your points a little more specifically; Its unlikely i will buy until the government stops propping up the market or i start getting GS sized bonuses.
Called to close my Citi card I used with Amazon/ paypal yesterday. (Sorry Grim.) Anyway, they decided to charge $60.00 a year unless I charged $2,400. and I only used it for on-line purchases.
I was a customer for so many years, it probably messed with my credit rating as well but I couldn’t help it. That was uncalled for. Never late a day in my life.
What a bunch of money grubbers.
I don’t mean to one up you on this one but I closed my Citi card about 6 months ago. They sent me a notice saying that they were raising my interest rates. I went from 12.99% to 17.99% and I have a 800+ credit score.
I closed a 20,000$ credit line that I had for 12 years with them after they sent that notice. I had them on the line and they were asking why I was closing my account. “Because you raised my rates for no reason, now I’m cancelling your card for no reason. No I am not interested in a temporary reduction of my interest rate. Your 3% for foreign transaction fees is sheer stupidity. Your rewards program absolutely blows. Oh you say that it is a rebate program and not a rewards program…thats explains why it blows. Thanks for making America suck.”
I know that the guy just worked for a crappy company and I probably was meaner than I should have been but enough is enough.
Ket 63 This just keeps getting better. Not to worry the people at the helm know what they are doing. Yea right.
I have an off-topic question for you all. My company is trying to perform some projections of future demand of our services based on trends in the compliance and transactional markets. In order to do this, we need some relatively current data on the number of EDGAR filings performed in 2008 vs. 2009 and similar. We know what our market share is on most of the products and we could project off of this. The problem I’m having is obtaining EDGAR metrics that summarize how many filings and of what type occurred year over year. As a matter of fact, the closest summary data I could find on the SEC site contains 2008 data. And this is not organic enough. Perhaps the SEC should be fined? Ha ha.
Well if no one has an inkling of where I could obtain such data, would the Morningstars, Factivas, Accentures be able to provide this type of research assistance for a fee? And if so, who would you recommend?
we both agree that waiting until the impact of the supposed removal of the MBS buying and the homebuyer credit could be a major game changer in property values going forward
My guess is that the homebuyer credit will be extended. It will likely be a another temporary extension, which serves 2 purposes;
1) It’s designed to create a sense of urgency in buyers…”buy now or miss out on the tax credit forever”.
2) It reduces the impact on the Federal deficit. If we pretend it’s temporary, the accountants don’t need to show it adding to the long-term national debt.
I think we’ll continue to see these programs until inflation finally take hold and puts a floor under nominal housing prices.
A credit score is just a measure of how well you are a debt-slave.
Worry about responsibility and financial security first and your credit score will follow suit.
Veto, Skeptic
If the US can actually pull off a long term floor under the housing market without causing an implosion elsewhere then it would be a truly historic event.
At the moment the floor under housing has caused US debt to go parabolic. All they have done is shifted the pressure from one area to another. The banking bailout was essentially a result of a floor being placed under housing.
Its like steam. You can plug one vent and it will just pop put of another one. if you plug all the vents then you end up with an explosion that takes it all down.
if the USG cannot maintain interest rates at very low levels for a sustained period of time then they will ultimately fail in this endeavor.
Renting,
I think that the MBS buying will end on schedule (5-6 weeks from now). They already have ~1.5 trillion in MBS on the FED balance sheet, I’m not sure they are prepared to take on more.
I also think that the FTHB tax credit will expire on schedule. There was an intense lobbying effort by the NAR and NAHB which afforded them more time but these across the board bailouts are very likely to end.
My guess is that they will start up other programs that target specific areas. Example is the program to target forclosure in the hardest hit states.
I’m waiting on the sidelines for these programs to end so that we can see where the market is going also. I believe that they are having a net detrimental effect on price discovery.
#70
“My guess is that the homebuyer credit will be extended. It will likely be a another temporary extension, which serves 2 purposes;
1) It’s designed to create a sense of urgency in buyers…”buy now or miss out on the tax credit forever”.
2) It reduces the impact on the Federal deficit. If we pretend it’s temporary, the accountants don’t need to show it adding to the long-term national debt.
I think we’ll continue to see these programs until inflation finally take hold and puts a floor under nominal housing prices.”
Totally agree.
“i will not compromise my family’s finances to do so”
i think of this too Ket,
looking out for your family is more than just about money.
Are you living in a clean, large dwelling that your family can call their home?
In my case, i am not living in a home, its simply a cost effective rental and its smaller than a home we would buy, so our lifestyles are being compromised (slightly). and if we rent a house as nice and big as we would of bought, then we would prob pay about $500 per month more than if we simply bought the thing.
Also, if the us economy is really going to collapse, then we are compromising our family’s finances by having the downpayment in the bank or holding gold in the closet?
designed to create a sense of urgency in buyers
I’m having a hard time locating a source due to my lack of physcology background but I’m pretty sure that most buyers will eventually suffer from “incentive fatigue”.
You cannot stimulate a sense of urgency with a “discount” if the discount has been around for 18 months.
“I don’t mean to one up you on this one but I closed my Citi card about 6 months ago. They sent me a notice saying that they were raising my interest rates. I went from 12.99% to 17.99% and I have a 800+ credit score.
I closed a 20,000$ credit line that I had for 12 years with them after they sent that notice. I had them on the line and they were asking why I was closing my account. “Because you raised my rates for no reason, now I’m cancelling your card for no reason. No I am not interested in a temporary reduction of my interest rate. Your 3% for foreign transaction fees is sheer stupidity. Your rewards program absolutely blows. Oh you say that it is a rebate program and not a rewards program…thats explains why it blows. Thanks for making America suck.”
I know that the guy just worked for a crappy company and I probably was meaner than I should have been but enough is enough.”
Well, Chase has my interest rate at 27% and I also have around a 760 score. I could care less though. For all intents and purposes, every card I have has an interest rate of 0%.
#62/66 If the gov’t extends the home buyer credit, than forget about it again,at least for a while. Actually I am forgetting about it for this year. We had planned to look in the Spring, but with the home buyer tax credit in place at least until end of March with an April 30 close, I will stand out of the way.
Also I want to see what the landscape looks like after this years school/municipal budgets. Last year many were able to extend/pretend, and finagel the books to keep increases lower than they would have been. Everything I have been seeing to date so far, indicates they will not be able to do that this year, plus with Christie’s cuts to school budgets/aid to municipalities, 10% or more increases in property taxes are very probable this year.
Finally we only need the school sysytem for another year,and then we are done, so we have other options with lower yearly property taxes. Making a decesion to leave a town we have lived in and loved after so many years, was a tough decesion in itself, but financially it makes sense.
“When the government has dumped trillions into the housing market, I would certainly hope they would see some sort of uptick.
While they may be able to play this game for a while, No business cycle has even been prevented from occurring. Perhaps their day of reckoning is 20 years out, perhaps 2 years out. Either way the piper will come a calling one day.”
If you asked me, it’s 5 years minimum. They bought themselves 6 years in 2001 playing the same game. Now the chips in the pot have increased 10 fold and the US government is going all in. It’s probably going to feel like a real recovery at some point at which the Fed & Congress declares “we can’t pull a 1937”. At that point, they will unleash the worst inflation this country has ever seen.
Cindy[46];
That story just got my agita going this morning.
The home loaners bought a $600k house by ‘stating’ their $26,000 annual income was in fact $26,000 PER MONTH. Alternately, their true income is higher than $26,000/yr. and they are hiding their business income off the books (paying no tax on it, nach) — still unsympathetic.
So they got to live in a nice house for what is essentially a rental payment, because they promised they’d make the real payment later. Later comes, naturally they can’t pay more, but they get to stay in “their” house, continuing to make what is essentially no more than a rental payment. My savings gets robbed to buy off the bank to continue the charade.
To use the author’s parlance, I stayed out of that “bear” trap. My reward was paying similar money for less desirable housing, btoh in the interim and for the forseeable future. The Car wash boy and his brood get to stay in the nice house subsidized by yours truly.
For this I’m supposed to hold up Waki Paki, JD as a hero? Fcuk him and his clients.
Skep (61): “the question is how long are you willing to wait?”
I suppose the answer is, until one of two things happen. One, the stimulus is removed and the market finally bottoms. Two, the stimulus is continued and renting remains the much better option.
Do the math: We are looking at having a monthly mortgage and escrow of approximately $3300 to $3500 at current property and tax values. For $2,500 per month, we could rent an equivalent home. Split the middle and this leaves us with $875 per month or $10,500 per year in savings. At the end of 30 years, with an investment return of 6.5%, you would have a million saved. Even at 3%, you would have half a million. What do you think the $450,000 shed with 10% down and $12,000 per year in taxes will be worth at the end of 30 years? Then factor in maintenance and other carry costs. Plus, your freedom of movement which is stifled in this new era of 10% unemployment, is restricted when you own.
It really is a tough question to answer.
Judging by the moral hazard ignored in all of our governments recent decisions, you would think it would be smarter to just buy and let the gubmint bail your @ss out when we all go down together. Unfortunately, at some point they can’t keep doing this without ruining our fiat currency or experiencing financial collapse.
Now the answer is even tougher.
I suppose we should just elect all Republicans and everything will miraculously get better. Right?
Veto,
We each have to determine or own priorities. In my opinion my son’s life experience will not be detrimentally impacted by living in an 1800 sgft rental in an OK area as opposed to my 3000 sqft “preferred home”.
What will detrimentally impact him in my opinion is me wasting that extra 500+ / month that could be saved for his future education or for general “life experiences” or for a rainy day fund.
From my point of view, in the end a house is simply about shelter. There are many “nice to haves” in this world, and we must each find our own balance.
As long as i can provide safe, sound housing in a reasonable area, then i prefer to focus on developing my family financially as opposed to possession wise.
“Also, if the us economy is really going to collapse, then we are compromising our family’s finances by having the downpayment in the bank or holding gold in the closet?”
No one ever compromised their finances by holding gold in the closet unless they told someone else it was in the closet. 2 weeks ago, I dumped another year’s worth of savings into the metals.
Ben,
My guess is it hits the fan in 2012-2013. A number of events are lining up for that time frame and they are all unpleasant.
Veto,
Another issue is taxes. The potential future tax liability to owning in NJ is HUGE! That one risk alone is enough to prevent me from buying in NJ until it becomes more manageable.
“The potential future tax liability to owning in NJ is HUGE!”
Err…shouldn’t that be the current tax liability?
#84 until it becomes more manageable.
Which may be never.
Stu
its relative. The liability is going from elephant sized to godzilla sized.
The state can cut spending left and right, but the monster in the closet is the pension liabilities. Barring extreme actions taken by the people and the government, those pensions liabilities are going to eat the state and tax payers alive regardless of spending cuts.
#85 This year’s tax increases are going to be ugly, ugly. I wonder how many cheerleaders we will ahve this year screaming but it’s for the children??
“My guess is it hits the fan in 2012-2013. A number of events are lining up for that time frame and they are all unpleasant.”
Ket, Are you planning your life around the Myan calendar thing? or is there something else in 2012?
3b
too true. If it worked out i would be more then happy to live elsewhere. I have no particular attachment to the state.
Renting makes sense to me, but in order to wait for the type of collapse that many here expect, I think you need to be willing to rent permanently. Few people who are middle class or better really plan to do this in real life. So if we assume that most people will buy here someday, the question becomes when will there be a better time? To me, it is a totally futile question because the market is so distorted by stimulus. And I think we all agree that the stimulus can’t be taken away, otherwise the market would collapse. So putting all this together, I do not see a coherent argument that any time in the future will be a better time than now.
#89 or is there something else in 2012?
You just can’t get any more blood from a stone??
Im hoping 2012 brings asteroids and tidal waves.
that should bring nj home prices right down into my ‘sweet spot’.
Veto.
Nothing to do with the Mayans.
A number of events and trends seem lined up to coalesce at about the same time in that period
Skep 91
I see your point. but i disagree simply on the basis that i make different base assumptions then you. to each their own
#91 I believe buying at prices around 2000-01 levels would make sense (even with a further declines in prices, and assuming you were staying long term). I have in some instances seen things now that could make sense price wise, but factoring in 12 or 13k a year in property taxes kills the numbers.
ket, why are you being vague?
You talk about nukes and illuminati andcivilization collapse but you cant disclose trends that coalesce in 2012?
cmon. i promise never to respond as if it was coming from Al.
3b –
92. ??
the best strategy from a financial perspective, of course, is to rent in the high cost/high income area, keep expenses low, save a bunch of money and then move to a low cost area (even if only relatively low cost). but the longer you remain in the high cost area, the harder this becomes to execute.
Veto,
i have nothing to hide. its simply the same debate we have here every few months.
maybe i should pull up one of the older google cache’s and paste from that ;)
#91 I do not see a coherent argument that any time in the future will be a better time than now.
I think the property tax argument is compelling,and also the continuing decline in wages. I don’t have a time frame, (although I believe sooner rather than later) but to think this can go on for a life time, makes no sense to me at all.
Stu, for shits and giggles, did you try emailing webmaster @ sec.gov remove spaces and asking for the numbers you want? Make sure you ask for the alt A filings… / A as well.
#98 Just saying perhaps that is how long the charade can last before collapsing.
oh stop, there is no debate
We just never spoke about trends
that coalesce.
The only trends you talked to me about was one that had a trough in 2019 – repeating cycles etc etc.
this time were talking about ‘a number of trends that coalesce in 2012’, which we have never spoke about before.
Im just wondering what that means, but you dont have to tell me if you dont feel like sharing.
87 Hyde:
“its relative. The liability is going from elephant sized to godzilla sized.”
Which is why Florham Park and the $6300 in taxes will be that much more attractive then Glen Ridge and their $1300 in taxes. If you figure tax increases will average around 8% a year for the next three years, you will be paying, $16,400 in 2012. An increase of $3400. In FP, the same 8% a year will result in a tax increase of $1600. I can handle an increase of $1,600 over three years. It’s the $3,400 without any increases that scares the cr@p outta me. Even in the good years, Gator and I rarely netted such an increase regularly.
How the F are the average income earners who are scraping to pay off their credit cards and mortgages going to handle continued $1,000 per year increases as health care costs and costs for everything are rising around them. You know, when you do all of this math, it almost makes me think taking the $50,000K or so loss on my multi by selling it might be the most fiscally prudent move. Perhaps I shouldn’t have refinanced three years off of it in December. :P
I guess I’ll never learn that behaving responsibly in this country is the absolute wrong thing to do.
As for the Citi card fees. We too do not carry balances so interest rates mean nothing. Haven’t received the fee letter, but we probably charged $50,000 on the card last year. Of that $50,000 we got back a solid $2,000. Sometimes paying a fee makes sense. My guess is that they will soon cut us off the responsible ones who cost them more in rebates then they earn on swipes. I would guess the gravy train will stop by next year.
to the person whom tried to send me a computer virus to my njrereport email saying you were interested in the interpreter spot.
bloke, you think I was born yesterday?
I got 2 personal IT guys around the clock.
your a rookie,
SAS
Already heard the NJEA crap on the radio this morning coming to work, won’t somebody think of the children, christies plans are evil, benefits only the rich.
I want to stand up in front of that cabal of thieves and basically state that if the children are so important, how about they pay benefits on par with the rest of us, save in a 401K with matching funds (I can support that) and not have their salary for life whence they retire.
To answer their usual response that they are not paid on par, and put in a lot of uncompensated hours. Point out the fact they work a 180 days a year, 6 hours a day. I work 220 if I can take all my time off and more often than not including travel i put in 12 hour days. The NJEA can go fcuk themselves. Don’t hold the children up as a holy grail you condescending fcuks.
I’m mad a educators today, tomorrow back on to politicians and other government leaches.
Ugh…I need to proof read. $13,000 in taxes in Glen Ridge and we took 5 years off of our mortgage in the refi. Just too busy. Sorry folks.
#105 I agree with the property tax debate. Also school wise, all the talk about good vs Ok/ mediocre schools is just that, talk. If one looks at the test scores as an indicator of good schools, the OK schools scores not much lower in many cases, than the so called blue ribbon schools.
If you want to help your children succeed, it begins at home. The whole chool thing is so over done.
Veto,
you have mail
3b,
a child’s performance in school is largely a result of parents involvement. That has been seen and studied time and again.
Screw blue ribbon. be an active involved parent, not a legally obligated baby sitter and half the issue is solved
#111 Agreed. it is what we have done,and it worked.
Pat (102): Thought of it and will try it. Thanks.
3b: I agree 100% about the importance of parenting over school quality, but once you reach the not being in the top 200, I feel a child that is not self-motivated could really get lost down there. Now paying an extra $7,000 per year in property taxes so your kid can attend a school ranked less than 10% above where the other school is ranked (and probably well within the margin of error), is insane.
New philospohical riddle for the Great Recession:
If a bulldozer destroys a house in the suburbs and no banker is around to hear it, does it still get foreclosed on?
I rent a 4BR in Colts Neck at a reasonable cost….it can be done…..one year anniversary is next Monday.
Mr Hyde says:
February 23, 2010 at 11:15 am
Skeptic, What Veto Said: I just want a reasonable price for a 4br. If that means i rent for the next 10 years, then so be it. I will save the difference.
Here is a home in Hamilton Twp selling for Feb 2002 price, after re comission.
It sold in feb 2002 for 345k
Asking 365k today.
taxes are about 9k.
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/96-Robin-Dr_Hamilton_NJ_08619_1110856376?mp=1
55.
I just did my part to hammer TD Bank (George Norcross’ old bank). No more of my money is going to be deposited.
Stu aka The Sausage Party says:
February 23, 2010 at 11:17 am
I have an off-topic question for you all. My company is trying to perform some projections of future demand of our services based on trends in the compliance and transactional markets. In order to do this, we need some relatively current data on the number of EDGAR filings performed in 2008 vs. 2009 and similar. We know what our market share is on most of the products and we could project off of this. The problem I’m having is obtaining EDGAR metrics that summarize how many filings and of what type occurred year over year. As a matter of fact, the closest summary data I could find on the SEC site contains 2008 data. And this is not organic enough. Perhaps the SEC should be fined? Ha ha.
Well if no one has an inkling of where I could obtain such data, would the Morningstars, Factivas, Accentures be able to provide this type of research assistance for a fee? And if so, who would you recommend?
Can you extrapolate anything from these guys?
http://www.broadridge-ir.com/ne/br210.htm
Chifi, go to NYSE or NASDAQ web site and you can see 2009-2010 IPO Info for that type of metric. Compliance Week web site also has that type of data.
Lessons from Argentina’s economic collapse from someone who lived through it. It never got better they just got used to it. http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf3.html
This is a great read. Some highlights:
“YES, you need a gun, pepper spray, a machete, a battle axe, club with a rusty nail sticking out of it, or whatever weapon you can get hold of.”
“One day the Minister of Economy declared that no one would be able to get more than 100 bucks a day from the ATM( correct?) nor close accounts. You could just get 100 bucks out of the bank a day. That was it.
Then came the devaluation. Before this happened 1 U$S= 1 $ Argentine peso. Suddenly this changed into 1 U$S dollar= 2 peso then 2.5 even 4 pesos. Today 1U$S= 3 Pesos.
The banks kept the people’s money, including their deposits in US dollars. If you had 1000 U$S dollars in Bank Boston for example, they turned it into 1000 pesos, that equaled 333 U$S dollars. They stole 666 dollars from you!
Prices went up 200%, 300% and sometimes more. Imagine for one moment what your life would be like if today you go to your local 7-11 and everything has gone up 200%. How would you survive with your pay check?”
Broadridge is kicking butt, lots of Bear guys in audit/compliance and they are hiring lots of people.
Thanks John… I’ll see what I can find out.
84. Thats awfully generous. I stick by my prediction of the fireworks starting between July and Oct and accelerating for 6 months until complete destruction.
Stu,
Another thing that people fail to cosider when purchasing a home is that basic repairs and upkeep to keep the place in decent shape can esily cost 3% of the homes value each year. So, over the cost of the 30 yr mortgage, one can expect to pay the cost of the house, the price of the house on maintenance, and then interest and insurance , which can be twice the cost of the house.
On the other hand, one does get the benefit of paying property taxes. It is a good feling doing one’s part for the treasury.
How it will look when the SHTF…..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZdp46Jen_w
Al Gore:
Just curious, what do you think things will look like once the SHTF?
Screw blue ribbon. be an active involved parent, not a legally obligated baby sitter and half the issue is solved
I agree. I think “Blue Ribbon” is often more a result of self-selection bias than “superior schooling”. In other words, parents who value education seek out “blue ribbon” school districts and are willing to pay a premium to live in those towns. These parents demand performance from their kids. As a result, their kids generally do well in school, thus making the school a “blue ribbon” school…which attracts parents who are willing to pay-up for “blue ribbon” schools…and so on…
126.
Like Argentina. Read the article at 120. Only difference will be the Zionists will drag us into a World War only after we get hit with a false flag big enough to have Americans begging the government for safety.
My question is which comes first the collapse or the war.
Nothing to see here folks, just keep buying:
“Stocks swayed on both sides of uneven in the early going, but turned lower after the release of the Consumer Confidence index. The Conference Board said its index fell to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall to 55.”
From MSNBC.
I guess the question here is, was this just a nut-job or was it a probing:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35539115/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/
asking prices are as low as ive ever seen them in recent history.
I would be shocked if case shiller for ny metor doesnt reflect that.
Zionists starting the war? Geez, they’ve had nukes for 30 years and haven’t lifted the finger yet. I’m actually surprised that you didn’t say Zionists started the war on 9/11 or did you mean to? And by the way, just use Jews instead of Zionists, you know you want to.
I went through the Garfield school system the majority of my life if not for an involved single parent and little bit of self motivation I’m sure I would have been less than the ditchdigger I am today.
My math skills are poor, but I consider that more lack of application than anything else.
The only benefit I can see of going to a blue ribbon school is having children whose parents find education equally as important as you do. It is more about the quality of your children’s peers rather than the education itself. kids in poor school systems fight a constant battle between distraction an better access to bad decisions. Couple that with inadequate parental influence and it becomes a self fufilling prophecy. i consider myself lucky.
132.
As a guy that spent a lot of time in Lakewood I know very well that not all Zionists are Jews. Where do you think they got the nuclear triggers from?
“a child’s performance in school is largely a result of parents involvement. That has been seen and studied time and again.”
add to that. People with higher incomes also have the means to afford private tutors or things of that nature, and higher incomes can have the ability to just have a one income working family to bring home the bacon, while the other member does the PTA or the involvements.
but, don’t get me wrong neither.
we got a lot of brain dead zombie, who would could careless about there child and snort cocaine, take serotonin reuptake inhibitors, and work 50+ a week to drive their rod and live large.
(at a cost).
SAS
#127 As one who is almost done with a blue ribbon, I do not agree. The kids who do well, would have done well blue ribbon or not, with the parental involvement.
There are more than a few who chose so called blue ribbon, and the higher taxes that go along with some of the blue ribbons, because they feel since its blue ribbon, than they are not required to do anything. It is all up to the school. Than if they are not happy with the out come, they scream about all the taxes they are paying for blue ribbon etc.
More than a few also go blue ribbon because of the so called ammenities blue ribbons might have, such as state of the art facilities, and star sports programs. All of that is just fluff with little to no benefit on education.
And there are more than a few who just wnat the bbragging rights of blue ribbon, and have never even seen the inside of the school
“Blue Ribbon”
just another word for classism.
if you think segregation ended back in the 60s.
you bad wrong.
SAS
Some nice predictions in here.
Harvard’s Rogoff Sees Sovereign Defaults
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaeViPPUVSw4
3b – if i had to guess, i would say you live in bergenfield?
Al (128): As an non-zionist Jew, I would prefer you to explain what you mean.
# 113Now paying an extra $7,000 per year in property taxes so your kid can attend a school ranked less than 10% above where the other school is ranked (and probably well within the margin of error), is insane.
And that is what I am talking about. in Bergen Co at least, most of the so called blue ribbons are surrounded not by inner city low income bad towns, but other towns that are not blue ribbon. When you comapre the test scores between them, there is not a great difference.
Dan,
At some point, some nasty folks in the Gulf will get a package launched from Zachariah on which someone will, in WWII “Kilroy” fashion, will scrawl “A special gift from your Zionist friends. It was the least we could do after all your hospitality since 1948.”
His 2009 book “This Time Is Different,” co- written with Carmen M. Reinhart, Rogoff charts the history of financial crises in 66 countries.
“We almost always have sovereign risk crises in the wake of an international banking crisis, usually in a few years, and that’s happening,” he said. “Greece is just the beginning.”
Greece’s debt totaled 298.5 billion euros ($405 billion) at the end of 2009, according to the Finance Ministry. That’s more than five times more than Russia owed when it defaulted in 1998 and Argentina when it missed payments in 2001.
#139 Nope. I am in a blue ribbon not far form Bergenfield. As I said earlier.
Like Blue-Ribbon BC children, the weapons that get the most attention are special weapons.
Ferguson: We’re One Downgrade Away From The End Of American Empire
“Ferguson, who has become one of the leading intellectuals of the deficit hawk camp, theorizes that empire’s don’t decline in the slow, cyclical process long assumed. Instead it is dramatic events that push them over the edge to oblivion.
Ferguson claims that it will take a simple, but dramatic event to shake the belief in the American Empire.
http://www.businessinsider.com/ferguson-were-one-write-down-away-from-the-end-of-american-empire-2010-2
I thought Zion was where Jah lived.
140.
I think this article explains it pretty well.
“It must be stated explicitly that while not all Jews are Zionists, not all Zionists are Jews. The motives of some of these non-Jewish Zionists, e.g. Lord Balfour and General Smuts, are at least open to question. From the beginning of the Zionist movement, some of the most articulate and fervent Zionists have been Christian clergymen, especially “fundamentalists,” who hail Zionism as an important “religious” movement and welcome it as a fulfillment of prophecy. They also, and significantly, serve the cause of Zionism.
Instead of being able to render assistance to Jewish communities in other countries, American Jews have been mobilized to concentrate on helping the Zionist state, making the USA the real and major source of Zionist power and influence. The Zionists, true to the nature of their movement, rely on technical superiority and on a forbidding military deterrent – provided largely by the USA – for their security. “
140.
Heres the main difference.
One most vital point deserves mention. A former president of the World Zionist Organization has stated explicitly that a Zionist owes unqualified loyalty to the Zionist state and that, in the case of a conflict, the first loyalty of a Zionist must be to the Zionist state. According to Jewish law, however, a Jew owes allegiance and loyalty to the country of which he is a citizen, and, of course, no faithful Jews owes any loyalty or allegiance to the Zionist state which has been condemned by the foremost rabbis of our age.
Nom,
Speaking of special weapons, if the SHTF, this NATO Field Manual could come in handy:
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/dod/fm8-9/toc.htm
Greenspan: U.S. recovery “extremely unbalanced”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greenspan-US-recovery-rb-1788218485.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
#151 What recovery?
Veto I wish The Maestro would just go away already. Really Al unbalanced kind of like your fiscal policies during the nineties.
On Mr Hyde chart http://www.scribd.com/full/27160591?access_key=key-p2lg0ro98f642ocl15m Prices were falling while interest rates were going down from 1987 to 1996 and home prices went up after 1996 due to low interest rates.2001 HPI is at 400 and 2003 HPI is at 450
$450,000 home at 5%
$2415.70/month $340,994.04 interest $394,761.17 balance after 10 years
$400,000 home at 8%
$2,935.06/month $303,105.81 interest $350,898.82 balance
if home price goes down another $100,000
$350,000 home at 8%
$2,568.18/month $265,217.58 interest $307,036.46 balance
cheaper to wait for prices to go down
“extremely unbalanced”
Sorta like Ted Kaczynski?
“The reason why the unemployment rate is going to be sticky is that as soon as employment starts picking up, a lot of the people who have not been seeking jobs are going to come back into the labor force, and they will keep the official unemployment rate in the 9 percent area, something like that,” Greenspan said.
He also said it was important for U.S. policy makers to prevent perceived expectations of inflation that could push up yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities, which would raise mortgage interest rates and prevent a recovery in the housing market.
“#151 What recovery?”
3b this is good question.
you and frank could go back and forth, would be an interesting conversation.
Veto,
Re e-mail,
in the next day or so i will try to kick a few charts your way Re 2012 timeline
Veto
“The reason why the unemployment rate is going to be sticky is that as soon as employment starts picking up, a lot of the people who have not been seeking jobs are going to come back into the labor force, and they will keep the official unemployment rate in the 9 percent area, something like that,”
hmmm. i see so they arent actually unemployed until they try to look for a job again?.?.?.
I believe the phrase is (pissing on my back and telling me its raining)
(not directed at you veto)
Summary of the President’s health insurance proposal:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/summary-presidents-proposal.pdf
I wonder what this means on page 3: “…prohibit discrimination in favor of highly compensated individuals.” Hmmm.
And it looks like in 2016, if you choose not to get insurance, the feds will take 2.5% of your pay anyway. Kinda like a protection racket, I guess.
skep (56)-
Your opinion is based on nothing more than hope, prayer and faulty conclusions drawn from an incorrect initial premise.
The US gubmint is currently insolvent. Most of what passes for economic activity is a cover-up of that fact. When thing get bad enough- and, they will- the entire gubmint and all vestiges of civil society will collapse.
They will also be collapsing all over the rest of the civilized world at the same time, so maybe we’ll feel better at our relatively superior position.
Kinda like we do now.
skep (59)-
The junkie can’t really get enough to feed his habit, but the dealer down the blcok- who is, himself, a junkie- fronts him some really bad dope from time to time.
“FDIC may be broke on paper but they have an unlimited line of credit from the treasury.”
“MTA Plans to Lay Off 1,000 Workers”
http://www.1010wins.com/MTA-To-Hand-Out-Pink-Slips-to-1-000-Workers/6423618
Hyde,
Charlie Munger, Buffet’s long time partner is out with a piece calling for the end of the american empire, our road to ruin. he says its all over.
He cites 2012 as the tipping point but he is mostly referring to that year because of the election.
But he puts it all on the table, talking about replacing work with gambling and saying that capitalism is dead in this country and our properity is over. He lists out all our unsolvable problems in a neatly organized list.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108901/death-of-american-capitalism-the-10-final-scenes
Stu (57)-
Agree with your conclusions 100%.
I only differ in that I think by June, it’ll be so bad, you’ll be scared poopless to buy anything, at any price and any rate.
Schump 165
That is unless you have pre-determined that you are going to play foreclosure-“chicken” with the bank. Then you likely costs for the next 2 years are simply the property taxes.
#165 Why by June??
rent (70)-
Inflation will not take hold in a universal, systemic sense. Everything being done all over the planet is an attempt to stim inflation, and it just won’t happen.
Eventually, the worm will turn, but it’s so far in the future as to be unusable as a component in predicting near-term events.
Too much debt destruction still ahead of us.
ok, need some info on Citi rewards. I have about 8 years stacked up and unused. I want to cancel the card and my accounts. What is the best strategy for getting the best reward? I’m clueless, never cashed out or worked with these types of programs.
much talk about “blue ribbon” towns.
So which towns are they (is there some sort of list somewhere, or is it implicit in town with higher median house prices)?
This daily barrage of Doomsday scenarios is likely to quicken the decline in confidence necessary to bring on the collapse. Get your battle axes ready. Marc Faber says the next war will be a dirty one.
““The next war will be a dirty war,” he told fund managers: “What are you going to do when your mobile phone gets shut down or the internet stops working or the city water supplies get poisoned?”
His investment advice, which was the first keynote speech of CLSA’s annual investment forum in Tokyo, included a suggestion that fund managers buy houses in the countryside because it was more likely that violence, biological attack and other acts of a “dirty war” would happen in cities. ”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article7035913.ece
#157 How can we go back and forth,when frank still thinks its 2005.
“NY comptroller: Wall Street bonuses up 17 percent
NY comptroller: Wall Street bonuses up 17 percent in 2009, profits to soar from bailout year”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/NY-comptroller-Wall-Street-apf-1588556564.html?x=0
Food for thought.
The SHTF at some point,2 yrs, 5 yrs, 2 months, who cares…
The current state of affairs is that a minority are essentially subsidizing a majority. How long does it take for the situation to break down to the point where the majority who receive state and federal aid of various sorts get cut off and get pissed. The state/FEDs then comes for another pound or 2 of flesh from the “rich”.
As al gore has pointed out look at argentina.
And if your not in a foul enough mood yet go look at the latest Market Ticker on dennigers blog
New lows for CASE SHILLER NY/NJ – SA
Non seasonally adjusted data is down too but not creating new lows just yet.
Case Shiller NY
Month NSA SA
Jan 2009 180.93 180.86
Feb 2009 177.84 178.30
Mar 2009 173.60 174.56
Apr 2009 170.67 171.96
May 2009 171.16 172.31
Jun 2009 172.36 172.66
Jul 2009 174.16 174.01
Aug 2009 175.48 174.78
Sep 2009 175.32 174.49
Oct 2009 174.94 173.77
Nov 2009 173.08 172.25
Dec 2009 171.91 171.46
http://njmonthly.com/articles/towns_and_schools/highschoolrankings/top-highschools08.html
I think this list is something that people pay close attention to when choosing a school system.
#170 Not to beat a dead horse, but blue Ribbon is no longer in existence. The program ended in 1998/99. So the schools that are calling themselves blue ribbon, that label is at least 10 years old or more. I wonder how many recent home buyers even know that fact. Oh well, just saying.
Anyone want to trade some .45 ACP ammo for some MREs? Better get ready because it is going to get rough.
Jim (114)-
If a guy bulldozes a house that the bank deems not even worth of the effort of foreclosure, what is the net result, and who is the biggest idiot in the equation?
NY Metro
YOY Changes NSA
Jun 2008 -7.04%
Jul 2008 -7.04%
Aug 2008 -6.61%
Sep 2008 -7.13%
Oct 2008 -7.71%
Nov 2008 -8.73%
Dec 2008 -9.21%
Jan 2009 -9.73%
Feb 2009 -10.31%
Mar 2009 -11.66%
Apr 2009 -12.36%
May 2009 -11.87%
Jun 2009 -11.49%
Jul 2009 -10.09%
Aug 2009 -9.30%
Sep 2009 -8.53%
Oct 2009 -7.77%
Nov 2009 -7.21%
Dec 2009 -6.30%
Im pretty sure that Jan and Feb were horrible months because i saw very few actual solds and a ton of asking price reductions.
Case Shiller releases will be really fun in the next few months.
hyde (166)-
If the bank escrows and pays taxes on your behalf, they will continue paying the taxes while you are in default.
You’re in your home for the price of your gas, electric and cable bill at that point.
Barb (169)-
Easy. Pipe-bomb the closest C branch to your house, then consider you and them even-steven.
At the same time, max out your C credit card and stiff them.
rent (176)-
Those ratings are a rigged-up pile of bullshit.
Schump 183
SWEET! I’m going for the 500 channel HD cable option with the adult channel package added.
3b (177)-
Not only that, but the “Blue Ribbon” designation had to be PAID FOR.
hyde (186)-
Don’t leave out the Onion Network.
Veto,
I have been following DC data and January was a bad month for us.
Bowie, MD 20715
Month – Average Sold Price
January-10 268,450$
January-09 307,673$
January-08 335,177$
January-07 372,656$
January-06 371,930$
I know that Bowie is a crap hole, blah, blah, blah…It is a major suburb of Washington DC and thus impacts the DC metropolitan area.
interesting:
steel per ton contracts from Port Authorities of New York and New Jersey and transportation to Tata smelters in India during the 00’s.
someone played a nice hand of shorting steel.
SAS
Just wanted to tell you that your blog is not showing up properly on the BlackBerry Browser. Anyway, Im now on the RSS feed on my laptop, so it shows!
On blue ribbon schools,
We dealt with this in our home buying decision when we decided to buy in Bridgewater rather than Warren or Basking Ridge, our first choices. I learned that 10 yrs ago, Bridgewater HS was ranked higher than say Warren, but then NJ mag changed their calculations, and they dropped down. Looking at the stats, 4 of 5 Bridgewater elementary schools pretty much score the same as Warren, but then there’s one school where some lower-income people live, and that school’s score is lower. Thus at the high school level, the average score on tests is a couple percentage points lower, as Bridgewater has fewer asians, a few more hispanics, and thus a few kids to pull the averages down. There are also a couple extra kids per classroom on average.
Basically, we got to buy a house for $300,000 less in Bridgewater than in Warren/Basking Ridge. All that we have to accept in return is that there might be some middle class hispanic kid in my kid’s gym class in 8 years (but probly not in her AP Mandarin or Calculus classes).
Since we’re not racists, and are used to our kid being ahead of her classmates, we took the discount, while most other Asians are competing to buy more expensive houses in Warren and Basking Ridge to guarantee a more “exclusive” neighborhood and school system without dusky-hued children.
Crofton, MD 20723
Month -Average Sold Price
January-10 310,644$
January-09 266,771$
January-08 354,350$
January-07 427,129$
January-06 451,840$
January-05 332,532$
Crofton has seen a small rise in prices over the last few months. Over the last few months I have been seeing large swings (40,000$+) in Average Sold Price which probably just means that sales have absolutely crumbled.
Nicholas, thats a nice trend you have there. Down 13% yoy, which means that your declines are picking up speed.
Im jealous! lol.
Does your monthly data track S&P Case Shiller pretty well? Or do you find a difference?
Yeah, there were 11 sales in the zip code last month with 108 active listings.
Over 9 months of inventory at that rate.
There is something fishy with the S&P Case Shiller data although im not enough of a detective to figure it out.
Basically each month, they re-state the previous month numbers, i guess as a result of contracts that were further ngotiated down at the last minute or whatever. But over the last few months, Case Shiller has been making bigger adjustments that goe back 4 or 5 years.
None of the adjustments are huge in any particular month but i wonder what these adjustments are and i also wonder if its severely skewing the overall picture?
Does anyone have original S&P Case Shiller data from 07 or 06 etc?
Would be interesting to see if they differ much.
#169 Citi rewards – I just asked for a check and they sent it within about ten days.
This data is directly from our multiple listing service. I’m certain that there are a large number of homes that are not reaching the MLS.
I lived in a townhome which had 5 empty units beside ours. They remained empty for over 1 year and only one made it to the MLS. I’m guessing that the percentage of homes being represented by the MLS has been on a constant decline since the top of the bubble.
These are average sale prices which correlate with CS but are subject to swings when a high end home or two gets sold. The numbers are also subject to “mix-shift” (thanks grim) since a historically disproportionate amount of lower cost homes are being sold.
Veto,
I have noticed the same thing and have been wondering how much “tweaking” they were doing.
It will be very hard to prove though, as you would need a large number of the monthly releases from when they were originally released so you could compare the difference.
The changes have been getting larger though
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/gov_chris_christie_issues_exec/1607/comments.html
fat boy wants to put down the donuts and get to business. If he turns this ship around maybe NJ won’t be such a bad state to live.
nicholas[193];
Bowie has the MARC train; commuting from Crofton requires sitting in traffic, at least to New Carrolton. Plus there is still no shortage of more farmland to build in Crofton. OTOH, Bowie is captive to dysfunctional Prince Georges Co. gov’t, while Crofton is comparatively better Anne Arundel Co.
Either way, If I’m ever forced back there I’m living on the VA side. Slug lines still fascinate me.
192: Remind me, are these the hispanic or asian children?
dusky-hued children
149-
How convenient. You quote one person’s opinion, a person no one really gives a crap about and has no influence anywhere to say how all people should act. And if someone doesn’t then what, are they removed from society? Are there zionist helicopters following their own people’s every moves. Remember, your imaginary big brother in theory has to watch over their own followings and keep them in line too. But Jews aren’t mysteriously disappearing are they?
Don’t let that inconvenient truth get in the way of your conspiracy theories, Mr. Gore.
192- Here’s a thought also. My children graduated from a great high school, but it wasn’t top tier material. What happens is that they still got placed in all the AP type classes, as long as they qualified and got the excellent teachers. I was glad they weren’t competing with an endless amount of other top-notch students. Why? Because that helped place them in a higher percentile of their graduating class. I don’t know if colleges still request this percentile info, but if they do, it’s better for your kids not to have too much competition.
200.
Yeah Im liking the fat guy so far. I want him to continue to drop the hammer harder and eventually switch off to a nail bat.
I enjoy listening to the union rats squeal on 101.5.
‘My heart, my choice,’ Williams says, defending decision for U.S. heart surgery
By Tara Brautigam (CP) – 18 hours ago
An unapologetic Danny Williams says he was aware his trip to the United States for heart surgery earlier this month would spark outcry, but he concluded his personal health trumped any public fallout over the controversial decision.
In an interview with The Canadian Press, Williams said he went to Miami to have a “minimally invasive” surgery for an ailment first detected nearly a year ago, based on the advice of his doctors.
“This was my heart, my choice and my health,” Williams said late Monday from his condominium in Sarasota, Fla.
“I did not sign away my right to get the best possible health care for myself when I entered politics.”
The 60-year-old Williams said doctors detected a heart murmur last spring and told him that one of his heart valves wasn’t closing properly, creating a leakage.
He said he was told at the time that the problem was “moderate” and that he should come back for a checkup in six months.
Eight months later, in December, his doctors told him the problem had become severe and urged him to get his valve repaired immediately or risk heart failure, he said.
His doctors in Canada presented him with two options – a full or partial sternotomy, both of which would’ve required breaking bones, he said.
He said he spoke with and provided his medical information to a leading cardiac surgeon in New Jersey who is also from Newfoundland and Labrador. He advised him to seek treatment at the Mount Sinai Medical Center in Miami.
That’s where he was treated by Dr. Joseph Lamelas, a cardiac surgeon who has performed more than 8,000 open-heart surgeries.
Williams said Lamelas made an incision under his arm that didn’t require any bone breakage.
“I wanted to get in, get out fast, get back to work in a short period of time,” the premier said.
Williams said he didn’t announce his departure south of the border because he didn’t want to create “a media gong show,” but added that criticism would’ve followed him had he chose to have surgery in Canada.
“I would’ve been criticized if I had stayed in Canada and had been perceived as jumping a line or a wait list. … I accept that. That’s public life,” he said.
“(But) this is not a unique phenomenon to me. This is something that happens with lots of families throughout this country, so I make no apologies for that.”
Williams said his decision to go to the U.S. did not reflect any lack of faith in his own province’s health care system.
“I have the utmost confidence in our own health care system in Newfoundland and Labrador, but we are just over half a million people,” he said.
“We do whatever we can to provide the best possible health care that we can in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Canadian health care system has a great reputation, but this is a very specialized piece of surgery that had to be done and I went to somebody who’s doing this three or four times a day, five, six days a week.”
He quipped that he had “a heart of a 40-year-old, so that gives me 20 years new life,” and said he intends to run in the next provincial election in 2011.
“I’m probably going to be around for a long time, hopefully, if God willing,” he said.
“God forbid for the Canadian public I won’t be around longer than ever.”
Williams also said he paid for the treatment, but added he would seek any refunds he would be eligible for in Canada.
“If I’m entitled to any reimbursement from any Canadian health care system or any provincial health care system, then obviously I will apply for that as anybody else would,” he said.
“But I wrote out the cheque myself and paid for it myself and to this point, I haven’t even looked into the possibility of any reimbursement. I don’t know what I’m entitled to, if anything, and if it’s nothing, then so be it.”
He is expected back at work in early March.
Copyright © 2010 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
west (192)-
Bridgewater separates out the high-performers and puts them on a different track very early on. Your kid will never have to mix with the hoi polloi.
Also, Bridgewater HS encourages all students to take SATs. This skews the scores downward. Plenty of “blue ribbon” body dumps discourage low performers from taking SATs and dragging down the school average.
If your local HS isn’t being used as a munitions dump or refugee center in five years, you picked a good school. Beyond that, the little distinctions are completely irrelevant.
BTW, while Ridge is a good (but grossly overrated) school, Watchung Hills sucks. You got a good deal.
I have case Shiller Data from September, November and December 2008 in spreadsheet form. Would that satisfy your curiosity?
outofstate,
thanks. will give it a try.
Make, Has Christie been putting on weight?
Im wondering how he gets any work done in between all that eating?
[201] moose
“Either way, If I’m ever forced back there I’m living on the VA side. Slug lines still fascinate me.”
My solution was to live inside the beltway (on the VA side, of course).
Schump means June 2008…no June 2009. Alright then, June, 2010!!
Dude, you have been making Doomsday predictions for years, always with a strike date of about 3 to 9 months out.
(If you are a long time follower, you know this is fact, whether or not you like to enjoy a Bourbon with Good Ol’ Schump.)
It’s not that I don’t share your general sentiment about our long-term prospects, but you’ve reduced yourself to the guy with a sandwich board that says “The World Will End Tomorrow”.
As a reality check, I would cite your analysis of the casualties suffered by Princeton students during WWII. Your Dad, who I have no reason to believe was anything but a great man, was referring to the fact that about 75% of the all-male student body enlisted. Truly impressive. The casualties, however, were heavy but inline with the overall statistics, thankfully. The Class of 1944 suffered 22 dead. I did not find a definitive number for 1945; I saw 32 cited by an alumnus but it is admittedly anecdotal. I’m not driving to Nassau Hall to find out the exact number, but I will stop in the next time I visit my friends in Princeton. All told, 355 Princeton men died in the course of the war, but they came from more than 20 classes.
I think you have unique insights into the real estate market that help us all, Schump. I think that insight would be much more effective without the hysteria and hopelessness.
FWIW, friends that I have visited in Argentina twice in the past five years are doing fine post de-val. Their quality of life is light-years beyond anything I’ve seen in the Dirty Jerz and they are worker bees. They had some worrisome months, but life goes on. Of course I am biased; I’m a rich man in Buenos Aires!
Have a lovely day. (That’s kinda like Lee Harvey Oswald offering some niceties to Jack Ruby..)
Veto, I always liked Munger’s stuff better than Buffet’s.
http://www.slate.com/id/2245328/pagenum/all/#p2
Here’s the most noteworthy part that Munger noticed:
“In its first 150 years, the government of Basicland spent no more than 7 percent of its gross domestic product in providing its citizens with essential services such as fire protection, water, sewage and garbage removal, some education, defense forces, courts, and immigration control. A strong family-oriented culture emphasizing duty to relatives, plus considerable private charity, provided the only social safety net.
The tax system was also simple. In the early years, governmental revenues came almost entirely from import duties, and taxes received matched government expenditures. There was never much debt outstanding in the form of government bonds.
As Adam Smith would have expected, GDP per person grew steadily. Indeed, in the modern area it grew in real terms at 3 percent per year, decade after decade, until Basicland led the world in GDP per person. As this happened, taxes on sales, income, property, and payrolls were introduced. Eventually total taxes, matched by total government expenditures, amounted to 35 percent of GDP. The revenue from increased taxes was spent on more government-run education and a substantial government-run social safety net, including medical care and pensions.”
203.
I dont blindly follow the mainstream medias promotion of Israel. As I recall it was Ben Stein that called Ron Paul an antisemite was it not?
It was Glen Beck that torpedoed Ron Paul in 2008 and Debra Medina 2 weeks ago. Rupert Murdoch is a Zionist and owns Fox news.
If mainstream media slanders any particular group I am automatically on the slandered groups side whether it be truthers, birthers, tea partiers, anti war protestors, Palestinians, etc.
Dont let the media shape your geopolitical views.
Dont let the media shape
[142] shore guy,
Kilroy was from Massachusetts.
Depending on which version of the story you believe, Kilroy was either a shipyard inspector at Fore River in Quincy, Mass., or a radioman-navigator on a B-24, from Everett, Mass.
I know Kilroy’s descendants (the Everett bunch).
On another note: I’m a freaking mutt but Al Gore’s anti-Semitic rants ought to qualify him for banishment. Has anyone ever been silenced here? Code words really bug me…
Veto,
In a quick compariosn of an origianl Nov 08 CS data set i had handy and the Nov 09 data set, i see the differences start to popup around 2006. All the changes are slight increases in the index ‘s, on the order of 0.1
It also depends on the region. The comp 10 has relatively few differences compared to the NY Metro data which has a large number of changes after july 2007.
The changes are small. when i run the YOY % on the 2 different data sets (08 and 09 data sets) the differences are in 1/10’s of a % i.e. (-9.22 Vs -9.19)
curm,
you have three posts on this board in total. Two of them are accusing different people that they are antisemite.
go away.
Curm (212)-
Since things are getting so much better by the day, please excuse the fcuk out of me for posting what I encounter in my miserable (and, indicative of nothing) daily existence. I guess the 1-2 short sale prospects I meet daily are just outliers…or the fact that my business is almost 100% short sales makes me a guy who just enjoys bottom-feeding. Please pardon my ghoulish tendencies. I will work on moving toward making a living doing only happy, shiny, win-win RE transactions between principals with buckets of cash and impeccable credit.
If I could ask for a do-over on my predictions of 1-2 years ago, I would…since, natch, the one thing none of us here predicted (except for John) is that the gubmint would prop up everything, in order to both deceive the world about the real condition of the economy and to allow the completion of the biggest daylight bank robbery of all time.
You don’t know me and you sure don’t know my Dad, but I’m pretty sure if you talked the kind of crap to him that you spew in the post above, he’d tell you to STFU. To your face.
216. What was antisemitic about what I said? Is not supporting Israel antisemitic?
ket, as long as they are not cumulative i guess its prob not a big deal.
But i wouldnt do yoy as a check.
Instead, i would do Dec 2006 vs dec 2009 for both data sets to see if there is any cumulative difference between the two.
You are completely reliable, Schump, which is a rare thing. You are also entertaining, equally rare.
Godspeed. (I’m ducking.)
The entire planet has been trying to kill off the Jews for centuries.
Now, the Jews are surrounded by nations that are- for the most part- filthy, willfully ignorant, breeding like rats, nihilistic, totalitarian, militaristic and completely devoted to the concept that exterminating Jews will somehow make their filthy, harscrabble lives worth living. These nations’ willfully-impoverished, degenerate lifestyles represent the intersections of hatred, ignorance and superstition.
So why is it that the nations continue to speak of the destruction of Israel? They should do us all a favor and kill themselves.
Veto
I did.
a sample of results
Dec 08 NY Metro data V Nov 09 NY Metro Data: (09 data – 08 data)
July 2008 0.010
August 2008 0.010
September 2008 0.010
October 2008 0.080
November 2008 0.200
All changes found were positive, meaning all changes have INCREASED the index value compared to earlier data sets
Curm is plg. Twit taken to the level of art form.
3B, you are right about the blue ribbon label. There are a lot of flaws in the NJMonthly charts, but I would say that they are probably right within 75 places or so. To look at it with more granularity than this is a waste of time. Unfortunately 95% of NJ consider this chart the holy grail and weigh a change in the rankings of 10 or so places as either the greatest thing to occur since sliced bread, or the impetus to move.
Veto,
for a thorough comparison we would need each individual data release in its original form and then compare all of them. Or as close to that as you could get.
“all changes have INCREASED the index value compared to earlier data sets”
Interesting ket. I wonder what happens if you take the earlies data you have and compare it to the most recent release today and calculate 2006 to today, (total %) for both?
If the percentage is different by 5% or more i will act out in a fit of conspiratorial rage.
Stu (226)-
Too bad that in the near future, the only impetus to move will come from the need to flee widespread violence and outbreak of disease.
Guess the gubmint needs to shove some Treasuries down everybody’s throat today.
Tomorrow, they may decide it’s OK to gun the S&P a little.
Does anybody else think this is as big a rig-up as I do?
Ket we dont need each month. Lets assume the changes are cumulative.
We just need the original 2006 or 2007 data and we can compare right now vs the today’s data. Im interested to see what happens when you try it with your 2008 data.
228 lol
Veto,
The question that bothers me is the changes appear to be small enough so as not to substantially alter or shift trends. But the changes become regular after late 2006.
What is the purpose of these “micro” changes that dont seem to significantly alter the trends. Why would you make them?
we are talking about changes to values of .01 to .1
Thats a rounding error depending on the details of their methodology.
“Does anybody else think this is as big a rig-up as I do?”
Final Doom, yes but its more of a rig down.
Shump, Im very intersted in seeing the results of tomorrows auction. Lets see if direct buyers can beat 24%.
Rick Santelli better take a valium.
Veto 229
The diff is less then 1%. Thats why the changes dont seem to make sense at first look.
Ket, what is an index data point for the earliest ny data you have? (original data from a year or two ago)
236 – ok ket,
I guess i got my hopes up thinking that we caught Carl Case working as an insider for the govt.
Veto,
The following are the only months with changes in NY metro data set when comparing the Dec 08 data with the Nov 09 data sets
September 2006
October 2006
February 2007
March 2007
April 2007
July 2007
August 2007
September 2007
October 2007
November 2007
December 2007
July 2008
August 2008
September 2008
October 2008
November 2008
December 2008
The Comp 10 has fewer changes and i did not look at the rest of the indexes.
Someone parking monaey at 0% in treasuries again…
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2010/R_20100223_1.pdf
Schump, I know it’s gotta be brutal working in a real estate market that is made up exclusively of short sales and foreclosures. It has been like that down here for 5+ years. People adjust. I know quite a few that lost it all then moved on to rentals. Hey, many of our local politicians, re agents, business owners, etc. found themselves in the same boat. life goes on…
At what point do we all start driving yaris?
At what point do we all start driving bicycles and who will build all the bike paths?
Veto had one as a rental in California (go figure) I pray to the flying spaghetti monster the day never comes when I crawl back behind the wheel of a Yaris
Eventually, the government will build bike paths through Camden. They’ll have to once they choose it as the setting for “The Running Man”. If you make it all the way, you move to Hawaii or whereever else the government has put their elites……
federal government is funding bicycle paths all the way from key largo to key west so i’m told. that’s 105 miles!!
I’m thinking about starting an inner tube business.
Buy Edward Cullen’s Twilight house
Even fictional vampires are getting hit by the housing market. The Vancouver house that was the home of the Cullen clan in Twilight: New Moon had its sale price cut to $2,998,000.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2009/real_estate/0911/gallery.twilight_cullen_house/index.html
192. West
Well, I’m glad you’re not a racist. Hopefully those Hispanic kids won’t disrupt your child’s gym class. Dusky-hued devils. Lucky for you they aren’t smart enough to get into any upper level math classes.
[229] clot
“Too bad that in the near future, the only impetus to move will come from the need to flee widespread violence and outbreak of disease.”
Got Nompound?
SFP Bill Sales Would Help Drain Cash, Jefferies’s McCarthy Says
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) — The Treasury may increase its borrowing on behalf of the Federal Reserve, which would offer the central bank a “gentle” means of draining reserves, according to Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co.
Westy, are you part hispanic?
I thought one of your posts referred to cuban ancestry but i could have been skimming.
Schumpeter thank you for your kind words.
If things are so bad why are lines of people putting in orders for the brand new 5 series and people are renting houses for the summer? That on top of high end stores are seeing sales picking up and walmart type stores see sales slowing.
Bonuses are up 17%, 401Ks are up 60% and lay-offs have ground to a halt. Banks are paying zero percent on CDs and not bonds and stocks are paying peanuts. Cash is piling up, I say spend spend spend!!!!!
It is a bull market baby!!!!
Toyota 2010 = GM/Chrysler/Ford of 2000.
But then again working gas and brake pedals are overrated.
Veto That says:
February 23, 2010 at 3:56 pm
At what point do we all start driving yaris?
Veto That says:
February 23, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Westy, are you part hispanic?
I thought one of your posts referred to cuban ancestry but i could have been skimming.
Vito: say “latino” …using the word hispanic makes you sound like you are old, blue collar, or a southerner….
wynn resorts going to manage a casino project on the waterfront in Philly.
another death blow for Atlantic City.
The NJ casino commission could not convince
Steve Wynn to come back to AC.
AC,, could be finished as we know it.
Chi,
According to a poll conducted by “Hispanic Trends” reported that a significant majority of Hispanics still prefer the term Hispanic.
Still, other polls show that older populations prefer Latino, while younger age groups prefer to be referred to as Hispanic.
Which is Politically Correct: Latino or Hispanic?
http://womeninbusiness.about.com/od/businessetiquette/a/pc-hispanic.htm
Do I call them Hispanic before or after they shit on my lawn?
223: Written 25 yrs ago, unfortunately prescient.
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“Do I call them Hispanic before or after they shit on my lawn?”
John, care to explain what the hell you are referring to?
“Do I call them Hispanic before or after they shit on my lawn?”
John, if they are landscapers with intent to fertilize, then yes.
Canada and Germany in hockey tonight.
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[243] dan
When we have our own Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution.
Which may be starting as we speak.
But Chairman Mao had one advantage over Chairman O: The Red Army had all the guns.
We live in the best of all possible worlds.
why couldnt the us govt ride this out for another 2-3 yrs? they have at least one more stimulus package coming. obama will probably trigger it this summer in hopes of things looking better by voting time.
if you guys are waiting to buy…might want to get a good rental with a great landlord.
re Hispanic vs Latino –
I can’t say what any community’s preference is, but I can tell you what the terms mean.
Latino is the more encompassing, referring to both Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking peoples of Latin America. Hispanic are the Spanish-speaking subset.
New in NJ says:
February 23, 2010 at 5:45 pm
re Hispanic vs Latino –
to my ear, it is the difference between saying Oriental versus Asian…..if you think there is no difference, then you won’t appreciate the point I am making….
How does your post refute my statement?
Vito: say “latino” …using the word hispanic makes you sound like you are old, blue collar, or a southerner….
Veto That says:
February 23, 2010 at 4:42 pm
Chi,
According to a poll conducted by “Hispanic Trends” reported that a significant majority of Hispanics still prefer the term Hispanic.
escape (241)-
True. There are days when it seems like those in NJ have a lot further to fall and more to lose than others.
However, it’s all the same everywhere.
I’m telling ya final doom. It’ll never get bad here. God loves New Jersey. Just ask Bruce.
“How does your post refute my statement?”
Chi, who has time for this?
Go read your original post at 255 and my response at 257 and it will be clear as day to you.
some you blokes sent me an email wanting to know what is “the ol’ quarter trick”.
well, one time in a Singapore lounge, near the red lights, where they swing from the poles. I left a dollar bill on the stage, the dancer leaned down picked up the dollar bill, and left 4 quarters.
with no arms or legs.
use your imagination.
SAS
273: Saw this performed in TJ. Left an impression.
Btw chi, what you posted in 269 is a quote. Its not my statement.
But you didnt paste the second half of that quote, which will prob answer your question.
273. oh my.
273: I would have asked for 100 pennies.
#277 – post of the day
[273] sas
Manko!
Remember Xmas Eve, when Kongress handed Phony/Fraudy a blank check?
Here’s probably the reason why:
“There’s been a lot of discussion lately (and on CNBC this morning) about whether the Fed really will discontinue its purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
No doubt the issue will come up today and tomorrow while Chairman Bernanke is on the hill.
But you should ignore this debate.
Remember that in December Obama announced a complete blank-check bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a move that enables them to snap up any quality of MBS in any quantities.
When the Fed stops buying mortgage-backed securities, Fannie and Freddie can easily pick up the slack. There’s no chance MBS will go unbought, the only question is who will be buying them. And it doesn’t matter, because the Fed and the GSEs are all now organs of the same government.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-you-should-completely-ignore-any-discussion-of-whether-the-fed-will-still-buy-mortgage-backed-securities-2010-2
I’ve said it time and time again; two things will survive a nuclear blast here: c0ckroaches and house prices in Bergen County.
Interesting story on NPR this evening.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124008307
The story is not about climate change, but on the polarized nature of the argument.
The following comment nails my views on the subject and why debate in this blog is at times very heated and divisive.
“Basically the reason that people react in a close-minded way to information is that the implications of it threaten their values,”
gary (281)-
Only c0ckroaches. I’m beginning to get a trickle of buyers who are not going to put up with Bergen prices. They can afford but will not pay (a giant tell, if ever there was one). If the buyers all go away or sit on their hands, prices will drop.
The general shitty quality of life, horrifying taxes and noxious inhabitants will kill Bergen prices.
No one and no area is immune. The devastation will spare no one.
Australia’s mtg debt blowout
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/australias-mortgage-debt-blowout-20100224-p1ex.html?comments=52#comments
The comments are great. Like when this blog first started. A mix of bulls and bears.
273.
sure it wasn’t a “ladyboy”? just sayin.
#190 Sas
Just back from the UK and Tata Steel is big news.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/indl-goods-/-svs/steel/Tata-Steel-Essar-overseas-ops-now-face-labour-pain/articleshow/5605060.cms
safe (284)-
We all know how this will end. Nice to see they’re blowing their bubble to maximum killpower by using the Chinese to ramp things up to an absurdly unsustainable peak.
Jamil
Early Christmas present for you.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124012937&ft=1&f=2
the life and times of NJ TPKE Tollbooth collectors (contains some dirty stuff)
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2010/0222101tolls1.html
289. EZ pass or nothing.
#287 Doom,
I laugh at the Aussie bulls. I try telling them that there are more people withing a 3 hour drive of Midtown Manhattan then all of Australia. If prices can go down over 20% here and still be unaffordable, why is Australia immune. I’m told it’s different there.
I’ve met a couple of unfriendly Australians and it always surprises me. I guess that means I’m racist.
Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
February 23, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Lessons from Argentina’s economic collapse from someone who lived through it. It never got better they just got used to it. http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.08/tshtf3.html
how much to keep at home? 5k? 10k?
as interest rates rise, its difficult to keep 10k at home when it could be making 3-4% in the bank (i know, we’re still months or maybe years away from 3-4%)
This story made me think of this blog for some reason….
http://uchiblogo.uchicago.edu/archives/2010/02/hairy_tales.html?msource=MAG10
like I said a few weeks ago
Toyota… gone..
but don’t worry, while we go slap happy on toyota, your child drinks melamine infant formula, and eats lead painted toys from the WalMart,
but, don’t you worry none. you just bought it at everyday low prices, now with the money you saved you can go buy a fat burger.
SAS
now, i like beef.
but, no way would I eat a hamburger.
I don’t like 100 cow trimmings ground into one.
oh yeah, they don’t regulate the so called “trimmings”, nearly as much as they do the nice cut steaks.
so, eat your E. Coli & unzip that zipper.
SAS
speaking of steaks.
I like to goto this place and have a steak with a glass of red.
prefer Park over Tribecca.
http://wolfgangssteakhouse.net/
SAS
are you kidding? I am going there tomorrow night to grab some drinks….
297.sas says:
February 23, 2010 at 9:59 pm
speaking of steaks.
I like to goto this place and have a steak with a glass of red.
prefer Park over Tribecca.
http://wolfgangssteakhouse.net/
SAS
oh…..my…..
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