Home prices are growing slowly but remain in line with inflation, Clear Capital reported Monday morning in its Home Data Index, but at this pace it will be 2021 before they return to peak prices.
National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth. Home prices have typically gained between 3% and 5% a year.
At the current quarterly rate of national growth, peak prices won’t be reached until the year 2021.
“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as the point of reference, and back to current trends and forecasts,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms, given the current economic climate.”
He added that Clear Capital sees a steady growth pattern, and no bubbles in housing.
“Nationally, we don’t see evidence of a price bubble forming again. Double digit gains over the last year, while similar to rates of growth in the run-up to the bubble, are off a much lower price floor. Phoenix and Las Vegas, however, are showing signs of overheating,” he said.