Clear Capital: Return to peak in 2021

From HousingWire:

Home prices won’t return to peak levels until when?

Home prices are growing slowly but remain in line with inflation, Clear Capital reported Monday morning in its Home Data Index, but at this pace it will be 2021 before they return to peak prices.

National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth. Home prices have typically gained between 3% and 5% a year.

At the current quarterly rate of national growth, peak prices won’t be reached until the year 2021.

“With the majority of metro markets still so far below peak prices, it’s time for conversations surrounding price trends to shift away from the 2006 peak as the point of reference, and back to current trends and forecasts,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, vice president of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “While there are certainly investors and homeowners holding real estate assets that will be underwater for seven years or more, the current housing market is positioned to behave very similar or even below historical norms, given the current economic climate.”

He added that Clear Capital sees a steady growth pattern, and no bubbles in housing.

“Nationally, we don’t see evidence of a price bubble forming again. Double digit gains over the last year, while similar to rates of growth in the run-up to the bubble, are off a much lower price floor. Phoenix and Las Vegas, however, are showing signs of overheating,” he said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

142 Responses to Clear Capital: Return to peak in 2021

  1. Comrade Nom Deplume on a new device says:

    frist

  2. Essex says:

    Yeah Baby. Yeah.

  3. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Interesting Factoid That Is Only Interesting To Me:

    In the seven SB appearances for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, they have four wins.

    Every time they won, Adam Vinatieri was on the winning team.

  4. Michael says:

    I can’t wait for the Crabtree -Sherman matchup next season. Crabtree has plenty of motivation to work hard this offseason.

  5. Juice Box says:

    Snow is really wet and heavy today, commute home is going to suck if you went to work.

  6. I think your site is pretty fantastic. If you want to meet other people you also can check out weblog. I just wanna thanks for this.

  7. jj says:

    I went to work and I did not go to sb. Buddy bailed on me as ticket prices just started going higher and higher. I would have liked to have gone. But I heard the train was a nightmare and game was a blow out so not a total loss.

    Juice Box says:
    February 3, 2014 at 9:20 am
    Snow is really wet and heavy today, commute home is going to suck if you went to work.

  8. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [5] juice,

    Wet, heavy, suckage that disproportionately leaves a wet blanket over NJ and NYC.

    What else would you expect from a storm named Maximus?

  9. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Someone over at the DNC had better get Bowles back on the reservation. He’s making sense and if the proles ever catch on, well . . .

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101384122

  10. xolepa says:

    I’m trying to convince my wife to go to the Devils game tonight. 5 minutes to train station here in Hunterdon direct to Newark. Want to stop at Dinosaurs for a meal. I know hardly anyone will show up. Last big snow two weeks ago arena officials let everyone sit rink-side.

    My wife’s still not biting the bait.

  11. chicagofinance says:

    game sucked…..worst since Baltimore kicked the sh!t out of the Jints

    jj says:
    February 3, 2014 at 9:36 am
    I went to work and I did not go to sb. Buddy bailed on me as ticket prices just started going higher and higher. I would have liked to have gone. But I heard the train was a nightmare and game was a blow out so not a total loss.

  12. Ben says:

    I went to work and I did not go to sb. Buddy bailed on me as ticket prices just started going higher and higher. I would have liked to have gone. But I heard the train was a nightmare and game was a blow out so not a total loss.

    Are you kidding me…there’s no bigger total loss. I was waiting for the JJ story about how he hooked up with the entire Broncos cheer leader squad during half time.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    My final thought on the Super Bowl: You know that there had to be some weirdness that is unique to the greater NYC area. . . .

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/9-11-truther-interrupts-malcolm-smith-press-conference-042629643.html

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [13] ben

    Was thinking exactly the same thing. funny.

  15. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [13] ben

    And I think I pulled a muscle while laughing at that. Ouch.

  16. Fast Eddie says:

    I feel for Peyton Manning. The guy is humble… a true class act. All the Mannings are great guys. I was rooting for him. It would’ve been nice to see him hold the trophy and walk into the sunset.

  17. Ottoman says:

    Yes, being a paid shill and partner for a company like papa Johns that is openly hostile to its employees having access to affordable healthcare is classy. Especially when they have the resources to give away 1 million free pizzas. Meanwhile, how much has the non profit NFL paid in federal taxes the past 40 years?

  18. Libturd at Home says:

    Peyton never wins the big game, dating back to his college days. Humble yes. Clutch, he’s the opposite.

  19. Libturd at Home says:

    Yum…free pizza.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    National home prices are right in line — within 2% — with inflation adjusted long-run average levels, which Clear Capital says shows prices have normalized post-bubble and future rates of growth will look more like historical rates of growth.

    This article says nothing and regardless, it means nothing for our area. Property taxes doubled and will continue to rise while salaries are the same or lower over the last 10 plus years. Until we start putting those variables into the equation, it’s all bullsh1t and useless chatter. People are lemmings and see not much further past their noses.

    I attend these coin shows in the NY/NJ area and went to one yesterday. People were going crazy at some of the vendor tables who had silver bullion in various forms; whether it was 90% bulk coin or .999. Why are they buying this? Because someone told them it was a tangible asset? A store of value? Because silver rose 2 pennies this week? They’re the same ones who can’t look past the stainless and granite sh1t or convince themselves that the house is a good buy because interest rates are low.

  21. Ben says:

    I wouldn’t put all of last night on Peyton alone. His entire team came out like they were ready for the off season. Nerves and jitters are one thing, but there was just no effort. The game literally ended in the first 10 seconds with that safety. The entire team is to blame and not a single guy on the team had a decent game.

  22. joyce says:

    I have a tremendous problem with other parts of the gov/NFL (like them extorting taxpayer money for stadiums they can afford to build on there own… among other things), that said… doesn’t the NFL just pass the profits down equally to all the teams and they pay the taxes? Please correct me if I’m way off base.

    Ottoman says:
    February 3, 2014 at 11:18 am
    Yes, being a paid shill and partner for a company like papa Johns that is openly hostile to its employees having access to affordable healthcare is classy. Especially when they have the resources to give away 1 million free pizzas. Meanwhile, how much has the non profit NFL paid in federal taxes the past 40 years?

  23. NJGator says:

    Have to disagree Eddie. In 4 years at Tennessee, Peyton never beat my Gators and never won a national title. The year after he left UT, they won a national title with Tee Martin as quarterback.

    And he went back to play a 4th season at Tennessee (even though he had already earned his degree in 3 years) only because the Jets had the #1 draft pick and he was too good to play for them.

    Peyton can suck it. There’s no forgiveness in the SEC.

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    Ottoman,

    I know you are sleeping well by paying a greater share of your income to aid the poor souls that are victims of social inequality. Right?

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    NJGator,

    I like the Mannings. I’m not reading anymore into it. Compared to the antics and attitudes of a lot of celebs and athletes, I just like the way they conduct themselves.

  26. Marilyn says:

    Grim, you wrote a couple days ago about NJ not foreclosing on homes. Why is this? Whats the reasoning behind not foreclosing? Why and what will happen when they do? Thanks Marilyn

  27. chicagofinance says:

    Heads up Juice and BearsFan:
    I cleaned up my property between 9:15 and 10:15AM……I left my house to go to work at 11AM and it appeared as if another 3 inches or so fell in that window. Now my car has been parked in Red Bank for about 30 minutes and there is more than an inch on it……the stuff is very heavy and wet…..

  28. Westjester says:

    I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Seattle Globetrotters play the Denver Generals. They are all great showmen.

  29. Juice Box says:

    re # 28 – my back will regret not buying that snow blower.

  30. Libturd at Home says:

    I am looking forward to seeing how my Honda snowthrower performs in this heavy muck.

  31. NJGator says:

    Eddie 26 – Don’t doubt it. Still will never root for him :)

  32. Too busy beating my wife to watch the game.

    Real football is played with a round ball that rolls.

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: Snow;

    Working from home today. I shoveled the light fluffy stuff two weeks ago. I plan to call the plow guy when this stuff stops. Did the NFL dodge a bullet with this storm or what? 12 hrs. difference would have made it a very bad night.

  34. daddyo says:

    I am looking forward to seeing how my Honda snowthrower performs in this heavy muck.

    ——

    Did you get the single stage? or two stage?

  35. Best part of SB week was Namath admitting he has brain damage.

  36. You’d have to be brain-damaged to dress like a pimp for the SB coin toss.

  37. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat [33],

    Real football is played with a round ball that rolls.

    Does it involve pins and a wooden lane? :)

  38. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    knew the game was over the minute the first snap went over manning’s head. Still watched cause I could not find anything else on.

    normally would dump this all on Peyton but man the seahawks just smacked them in the mouth yesterday. The formula to beat Manning has always been to throw off his timing, but still thought they were in it at the end of the first. Manning throws a pick six plenty of time left still have a chance, then the defense, if you could call it that ,just stunk up the joint.

  39. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    eddie i think it is that game where south americans and europansies fall down and writhe in pain as if shot if they are looked at the wrong way. Can’t be rugby their ball is oblong and aussie rules football is clearly for crazies

  40. Libturd at Home says:

    http://powerequipment.honda.com/snowblowers/models/hs520a

    Single Stage 4-stroke. Wanted something I could put in the back of the CX-9 (by myself) to haul to our multi.

  41. Street Justice says:

    So I guess NJTransitgate is the latest scandal? Anybody from Seattle or Denver who came to watch the game in NJ is probably going to leave seriously p1ssed off. Between being treated like cattle at the stadium and the Secaucus station, then heading to the airport today to see a board full of cancelled flights. Whatever. That pessimistic p1ssed off feeling is how people from NJ feel every single day.

  42. No, it’s the sport that most of the people in the world actually follow, as it involves skill, stamina and intelligence. It also doesn’t stop every 10 seconds so everyone can hold a meeting.

    Throwball is about as exciting as one of jj’s executive presentations prolly is.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    test

  44. Soccer = Hand of God

    Throwball = Buttfumble

  45. daddyo says:

    http://powerequipment.honda.com/snowblowers/models/hs520a

    Loved mine. I bet it doesn’t even break a sweat today, except end of driveway might need a little effort.

  46. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    clot knew i could get you going if i made fun of soccer ;)

  47. Fast Eddie says:

    Throwball. lol! Meat, I’ll tell you my feelings regarding soccer when I visit you. This way you can strangle me personally. ;)

  48. Juice Box says:

    Bah soccer aka kickball has nothing on Hurling.

  49. daddyo says:

    so we watch a lot of soccer in our house, I can’t remember the last time the kids and I sat down and watched a football game. Both of my boys had been listening to friends talk about the game all week, so they were getting all jazzed up to watch.

    15 minutes in – they both started complaining about all the commercials and lost interest.

    I used to watch 6-8 hours of football every Sunday when I was growing up. Now after watching soccer for a few years, I find it almost impossible to sit through the 3.5 hours it takes to play a 60 min game.

    And I never noticed it before, but holy cow do football players celebrate a lot. Every tackle, every pass, every run, it’s a huge celebration. I can picture Messi jumping up and flexing muscles every pass or nice touch…I told my son to do that in his next game.

  50. Fast Eddie says:

    Libtard,

    Another 250 point drop on the DOW and I’m buying. You agree?

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Re: [42];

    So I guess NJTransitgate is the latest scandal? …heading to the airport today to see a board full of cancelled flights.

    So now the media is going to try and crucify CC because is snowed? Reminds me much of Palin — I’m not a big fan of either of them, but they are the target of such high-octane a$$-hattery its hard not to like them simply because their enemies are such douches.

  52. Anon E. Moose says:

    Spine [43];

    I’ve come to appreciate the sport, but let’s not kid ourselves — its the most popular game in the world because all you need are an open field, a melon, and four sticks to start a game.

  53. Lurker says:

    Or maybe the 12 hour difference in the storm would’ve made it special or even watchable!

    #34 Anon E. Moose says:
    February 3, 2014 at 12:19 pm
    Re: Snow;

    Working from home today. I shoveled the light fluffy stuff two weeks ago. I plan to call the plow guy when this stuff stops. Did the NFL dodge a bullet with this storm or what? 12 hrs. difference would have made it a very bad night.

  54. Libturd at Home says:

    Gary,

    I’ve been buying all along. Markets been on fire for half a decade without even the slightest cooldown. And I think now is one of the quietest periods we’ve had throughout, socio-politically. Plus, my gut tells me that when and if Yellin raises rates, the market will take it as a positive sign that all is good in the world of markets. Of course, this is all conjecture and my economics minor from Montclair State carries about as much water as a coffee filter.

  55. xmonger says:

    #45 Every 2014 world cup match will be better than the Sh*tbowl last night.

  56. Street Justice says:

    I was thinking about the weather, tranist, and quality of life in general in NJ compared with other areas. Not so much anything to do with CC.

    53.Anon E. Moose says:
    February 3, 2014 at 12:50 pm
    Re: [42];

    So I guess NJTransitgate is the latest scandal? …heading to the airport today to see a board full of cancelled flights.

    So now the media is going to try and crucify CC because is snowed? Reminds me much of Palin — I’m not a big fan of either of them, but they are the target of such high-octane a$$-hattery its hard not to like them simply because their enemies are such douches.

  57. anon (the good one) (skipping the SB to read “Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology”) says:

    you see, glad i missed the SB reading crazy. in the topic of stupid non-sense, “Introduction to Scientologist Epistemology” is up next.

  58. Paul Gascoigne aside, you also don’t see footballers hooked on pain pills and drooling with brain damage by the time they’re 50.

  59. NJ Transit blaming SB issues on anon.

  60. xmonger (57)-

    I’d include WC qualifiers in that statement…including San Marino vs Faroe Islands.

  61. Street Justice says:

    Just sayin’

    Soccer Players Show Signs of Brain Damage
    Frequently hitting the ball with the head may impair memory
    Oct 17, 2013 |By Ajai Raj

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/soccer-players-show-signs-of-brain/

  62. anon (the good one) (skipping the SB to read “Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology”) says:

    Chelsea v Man city on my HD iPad mini

  63. Street Justice says:

    Anti-gun Activists denounce ABC’s ‘The View’ for featuring Dana Loesch

    http://www.examiner.com/article/anti-gun-activists-denounce-abc-s-the-view-for-featuring-dana-loesch

  64. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Spine believe me my kids are never playing foolball, i have enough injuries and documented concussions to keep that away. thanks to the Mrs being German they will probably play soccer, the trade off is they play hockey and lacrosse. i grew up playing baseball I’ll be damned if I’m sitting through T-ball and little league games.

    Hell if the want to dance I’m fine with it as long as they are happy.

    Liquor sales down today your especially testy?

    Damn you Street i was going to post that link!

  65. JJ says:

    You dont see chinks, japs and indians playing sports growing up that is why you folks are losing all the good jobs

  66. JJ says:

    down 327 better get your buying list out you have 45 seconds

  67. Libturd at Home says:

    Snow blower worked decently. Had to push a little, but no comparison still to shoveling. Me happy. Off to do the multi.

  68. Libturd at Home says:

    Interesting…two stocks I own that are up are Apple and Annaly. I doubled down on my NLY in my IRA. Apple, my clubs still own some, but probably not for long.

  69. I’d rather take 1,000 headers than get planted once by Deacon Jones.

  70. Stu, I cannot believe you own NLY. That outfit is going to end in ruin.

  71. pain (66)-

    Cranky because I can’t even believe I made it here and opened the door.

    Nothing but sales to h@rdcore alkies today. The day after the SB is always rough.

  72. Hard to pick which team I hate more between Chelsea and City.

  73. JJ says:

    NLY is having a great 2014. Go Baby Go Baby

  74. GHDs Outlet says:

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  75. We can wholeheartedly recommend the Western Digital Red drives in their intended application: small affair NAS appliances. I/O generally isn’t emphasized in that scenario,plus the drives do demonstrate good streaming plus sequential read/write performance by 110 MB/s). This leads to fast transfers of large files,North Face Oulet, a common task in networkattached workloads.Among her best lines, “I’m admonition you to take your loss favor the lady you’re not directed toward Nicko upon wisdom Shelb

  76. Libturd at Home says:

    Yeah…I know NLY is a bit scary, but that crooked management team has some track record and they give us silly investors some decent crumbs.

  77. A screed worthy of Gary:

    “Reality will reassert itself in 2014, with lemmings, flippers, and hedgies getting slaughtered as the housing market comes back to earth with a thud. The continued tapering by the Fed will remove the marginal dollars used by Wall Street to fund this housing Ponzi. The Wall Street lemmings all follow the same MBA created financial models. They will all attempt to exit the market simultaneously when their models all say sell. If the economy improves, interest rates will rise and kill the housing market. If the economy tanks, the stock market will plunge, creating fear and killing the housing market. Once it becomes clear that prices have begun to fall, the flippers will panic and start dumping, exacerbating the price declines. This scenario never grows old.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-03/guest-post-warped-distorted-manipulated-flipped-housing-market

  78. Layeth down the smack:

    “Real household income continues to fall and nearly 25% of all households with a mortgage are still underwater. Young people are saddled with $1 trillion of government peddled student loan debt and will not be buying homes in the foreseeable future. Dodd-Frank rules will result in fewer people qualifying for mortgages. Mortgage insurance is increasing. Obamacare premium increases are sucking the life out of potential middle class home buyers. Retailers have begun firing thousands. The financial class had a good run. They were able to re-inflate the bubble for two years, but the third year won’t be a charm. In a normal housing market 85% of home sales would be between individuals using a mortgage, 10% would be all cash transactions, less than 5% of sales would be distressed, and 40% would be first time buyers. In this warped market only 40% of home sales are between individuals using a mortgage, 42% are all cash transactions, 16% are distressed sales, 5% are flipped, and only 27% are first time buyers. The return to normalcy will be painful for shysters, gamblers, believers, paid off economists, Larry Yun, and CNBC bimbos.”

  79. BearsFan says:

    Thanks for the heads up chi. I was home all day. Yes, way too heavy.
    Buddy of mine got my crew into the bud light hotel party sat night. Zach brown band was great! Had never seen them. They closed with some rage…place went nuts.

  80. Ben says:

    You dont see chinks, japs and indians playing sports growing up that is why you folks are losing all the good jobs

    They play tennis and golf. They pull it off and still manage to study because they manage their time effectively.

  81. Grim says:

    Key West feels extra special today

  82. Njescapee says:

    Grim,

    Have fun. There is lots of cool stuff to do. If you happen to golf our place is just behind the 8th hole.

  83. chicagofinance says:

    clot directs pop music video……
    Good song … kind of a mid-90’s British throwback sound….
    clot payoff comes at 3:41……I love the girl with the white gloves…..
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfihYWRWRTQ

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  85. Fabius Maximus says:

    Clot

    Finally some good news for you. Joking Joe has left and gone away!
    http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/26027652

    #topoftheleague

  86. That’s not good news for the rest of the league, gluteus.

    Enjoy your battle for 4th place.

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume, back as Captain Justice says:

    Everyone dig themselves out of the crap Maximus left behind?

    No, really, I was talking about snow this time.

  88. nwnj says:

    Hopefully they hit this hack with a perjury charge.

    Comrade Nom Deplume on a new device says:
    February 3, 2014 at 7:34 pm

    Cracks in the facade?

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/03/politics/christie-hoboken-mayor-zimmer-accusations/index.html?hpt=hp_bn3

  89. Comrade Nom Deplume, back as Captain Justice says:

    [88] Fabian

    A little Simon and Garfunkle humor? That was actually witty!

  90. jj says:

    Those are the high class ones. I am talking the ones that actually work.

    In their spare time they work second and third jobs.

    Ben says:
    February 3, 2014 at 7:13 pm
    You dont see chinks, japs and indians playing sports growing up that is why you folks are losing all the good jobs

    They play tennis and golf. They pull it off and still manage to study because they manage their time effectively.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, back as Captain Justice says:

    [91] nw

    Nah. Besides, she’d just tout it in her next campaign, kinda like an endorsement (indictment =Hudson County Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval)

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume, back as Captain Justice says:

    “Fast Eddie says:
    February 3, 2014 at 11:42 am
    Ottoman,

    I know you are sleeping well by paying a greater share of your income to aid the poor souls that are victims of social inequality. Right?”

    It’s been nearly 24 hours of crickets, Gary. I don’t think he’s coming.

  93. Fast Eddie says:

    typing from my cell phone at the most challenging job I have ever had. I am chock full in the middle of ivy league folks and mba folks.

    nom, yes, crickets!

    meat, I love the zero hedge post, spot on!

  94. Ragnar says:

    “The Skyboxification of America”
    Was this article discussed last year?
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/local/2013/11/09/washington-a-world-apart/
    Their map application isn’t working properly for me.

  95. njescapee says:

    Ragnar, I personally saw that coming at the end of the 90s. My deceased cousin employed by the CIA morphed from a happy go lucky guy to one totally preoccupied with power and money. He was almost unrecognizable after living in the DC area for a few years.

  96. Phoenix says:

    97 Eddie,
    Zerohedge article was interesting. Are these the culprits of “social inequality?”

    “Bernanke, Yellen and their owners have used their control of the currency, interest rates, and regulatory agencies to create the widest wealth disparity between the haves and have-nots in world history. Their depraved actions on behalf of the .1% will mean blood.”

  97. jj says:

    I laugh very hard when they say 120K is is a good income. At that income perhaps you are eating in mcdonalds driving a 1989 Taurus as opposed to sleeping in an abaondoned 1980 Taurus and eating out of the dumpster at McDonals.

    After Sandy I never realized truly how rich the average american was. I applied for grants and stuff which required my actual income with tax returns and paychecks. No one blinked an eye. One girl was like I know how tough it is we will get you something. Now the oddly odd part is I some stock vest in Jan 2013 and had to give in a paycheck which listed year to date income in January 2013 and it was about 110k . So hear I am giving a paycheck with 110K on it in January 2013. I am expecting to go into that first paycheck had one time vesting. No they did not ask. So a bi-weekly pay check of 110K can get you red cross money and NYS aid. How rich are the average, folk.

    One guy came and was an inspector and he likes classic cars and was talking about his antique mercedes, I mentioned how I lost one and my BMW in Sandy. He was saying how horrible that is. Meanwhile there is a brand new Denali sitting in driveway he was like dont worry we will get you some help.

    So in 2013 losing your Mercedes and BMW that were both insured anyhow is a victim. One social worker did give me free coffee to help me with my grief. She said if something happened to my BMW I dont know what I would do. I was going to ask for a BJ but coffee and a donut seemed like enough after all it was a BMW not a arm or leg.

    Clarksville sits in one of the nation’s “Super Zips” — a term coined by American Enterprise Institute scholar and author Charles Murray to describe the country’s most prosperous, highly educated demographic clusters. On average, they have a median household income of $120,000, and 7 in 10 adults have college degrees.

    Ragnar says:
    February 4, 2014 at 9:34 am
    “The Skyboxification of America”
    Was this article discussed last year?
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/local/2013/11/09/washington-a-world-apart/
    Their map application isn’t working properly for me.

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  99. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: you getting hammered with offers on bonds? You get this friggin 50 bps rally and everyone is looking to get their rocks off…..I am not paying for this sh!t so they can f off….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSUmLtWrI3g

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    phoenix,

    the culprits of inequality are middle class males of European origin who get up every morning and wait for a train at 7 am in single digit weather. they are the evil ones and deserve to be punished for the injustice inflicted on the less fortunate over the coursr of the last 5000 years.

  101. Marilyn says:

    JJ , I think your stories are funny!!

  102. It’s a subprime world.

  103. jj says:

    I had a big stock vesting Jan 4 and took cash on Jan 4th and bought all long term A rated or higher NYS munis. I also bought a lot of munis in the 4th Q.

    I was buyings 20-30 years maturity coupon 5.1% or greater in the 99-102 range for like four months straight. In big sell offes like Jan 2011 and 4Q 2013 I love long term investment grade with over a 5% coupon at par. Even nailed a few 5.75% non callable NYS bonds at 102-104.

    Also week before PSEG takeover and rulling if LIPA bonds would remain tax free during 4Q sell off bought 100K LIPA bonds . Sometimes going in balls deep feels the best.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 4, 2014 at 11:11 am
    JJ: you getting hammered with offers on bonds? You get this friggin 50 bps rally and everyone is looking to get their rocks off…..I am not paying for this sh!t so they can f off….

  104. Warren Buffett now bookmaking and disguising it as “insurance”. He even has convicted bookmaker Dan Gilbert in on it:

    http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/03/yahoo-sued-buffett-ncaa/

  105. Juice Box says:

    Lol – I did mention NJ transit plans for Hoboken in a previous post as tip of the iceberg?

    Seems they kept Zimmer in the dark on the new light rail station uptown.

    http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2014/02/post_468.html

  106. Michael says:

    97- This quote from the article supports my opinion on networking gets you ahead. It’s not what you know but who you know. Sure you have to have the skills to do the job but what’s separates who gets the job out of 100 qualified candidates is who knows someone. Plain and simple.

    “So much of opportunity in America depends on what sociologists call social capital,” said Stephen Klineberg, a Rice University sociologist. “Who you know. Who’s willing to invest in your skills.”

  107. Libtard in Union says:

    Apply for a job in the Public Sector Michael, it’s not just networking. In most cases, you must be blood related. I know. Back around the turn of the century, when I first noticed how lucrative a public sector job was especially in retirement, I pushed Gator to apply for some jobs in the Essex County Court system. Gator was quite overqualified for the positions she applied for (even though they represented well over a 50% pay cut from her private sector compensation), but never did she even receive a call back. In many cases, it’s who you know. In some cases, as was the case with the job I’ve obtained, it’s truly hard work, experience and a boat load of self-confidence and ego.

    “This quote from the article supports my opinion on networking gets you ahead”

  108. daddyo says:

    Snow blower worked decently. Had to push a little, but no comparison still to shoveling. Me happy. Off to do the multi.

    I actually had to push on my two-stage ariens. The way the snow was packing against the surface made it very difficult to clear all the way to the ground.

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [97] ragnar,

    We are so there.

    I was chastising my 10YO for complaining about not getting a chocolate covered donut earlier today. I reminded her she gets to be on her all star cheer team, sleepaway camp, horseriding, swim club, beach vacations in OCMD every year, ski vacations (in Utah no less) every year, an iphone (with the browser disabled though), etc. Even her own bedroom, furnished by PB Teen. She had been to more exotic locales by age 7 than I had been to by age 40.

    All things I never had. So STFU already about the donut.

  110. Libtard in Union says:

    Daddyo,

    I was impressed that the chute didn’t get clogged at all. On my old monster snow blower that my tenants seized, it would clog all of the time with the wet snow.

  111. JJ says:

    I came home last driveway shoveled, front walk way, deck, dog run. All with this tool I got for $15 bucks at kohls. Even better you dont even necessarily have to use if for it to work.

    It is called a belt, just snap it a few times on the way to work letting the kids know they will be tasting leather if Daddy sees snow when he gets home.

    Sadly the kids today know Dads are all Hat and no Horse so it does not work as well when they know you cant actually beat them. But I tell you what I guy with a cowboy hat and no horse looks more like a cowboy than a man with no hat.

    daddyo says:
    February 4, 2014 at 1:13 pm

    Snow blower worked decently. Had to push a little, but no comparison still to shoveling. Me happy. Off to do the multi.

    I actually had to push on my two-stage ariens. The way the snow was packing against the surface made it very difficult to clear all the way to the ground.

  112. JJ says:

    Re 114

    It is not who you know it is who you blow.

  113. Grin says:

    I know folks in various sheriffs departments statewide who were selected because their parents were big political contributors to the reelection campaigns. I’ll say no more.

  114. njescapee says:

    Grim , you’re in Key West for 2 days and you change your handle to Grin?

  115. njescapee says:

    Grim, I hear good things about Garbo’s Grill a food truck on Greene St. Guy Fieri was there a couple weeks ago.

    http://www.tripadvisor.com/Restaurant_Review-g34345-d1869416-Reviews-Garbo_s_Grill-Key_West_Florida_Keys_Florida.html

  116. NJGator says:

    Agents on the board. Is it possible to find out how many sales a listing agent has closed. Am looking Monmouth County area. I suspect my folks hired a real “winner” to sell their place. Would like to see if I can get the numbers to prove it.

  117. gwcesoqbmj says:

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  118. jj says:

    Hey I see a lot of ads for 55+ communities. Lot of my buddies are having kids later in life. So they will have kids in the school district from 55-70.

    Do these places with cheap school taxes allow kids? Just wondering. Also if folks keep marrying later and later and men have second marriages to younger women there wont be any 55-65 year olds to buy these units if they dont allow kids.

    My buddy in a rich town said recently half the Dads at the kindergarten orientation was over 55 and were there with their trophy wifes.

    Just wondering how this concept will work it assumes folks had their last child at 32 in order to have no kids in the school district at 55. Considering most men get married at 32 exactly how is that a sustainable business model in the NY and NJ area.

  119. NJGator says:

    JJ – Pretty sure your geezer friends with kids wouldn’t be able to live in these places, at least not in NJ. I’m pretty sure that at least one spouse must be 55+ to reside. The exceptions are generally for single adult children over the age of 18, and even that may be limited to one.

    My mother’s cousin lives in a 55 community in Central NJ. They almost were going to permanently take in their preschool age granddaughter, and had they done that, they were going to have to sell their place and move. For a while they had her living with them for month long stints each time and I think even that was causing an issue.

  120. Ragnar says:

    Comrade (116),
    My daughter is just as spoiled. Kids get used to what they have or don’t have as they grow up. When I was a kid I thought my family was “middle class” but I grew up in smalltown Florida so in retrospect was probably upper lower class. But when my kid starts whining about something she didn’t get, I let my wife take charge. My wife has even better stories to tell her about privations growing up – echoes of the Cultural Revolution, food shortages, handmade and hand-patched clothes as presents. “Vacations” involving 3 day train rides with only a seat on a bench, and a hole in the floor serving as bathroom for 100 people. 5 hour bicycle rides home from the train station. Bayonets from your own country’s army pointed a few inches from your chest when you dared speak up against the government.

    Of course because of this, my wife also has zero sympathy for anyone born in America who whines that “they weren’t given a chance” to make something of their lives, or were “underprivileged”. She knows that 99% of the kids born in America had easier to grasp opportunities than she had. And most didn’t take advantage of those opportunities.

  121. chicagofinance says:

    jj can suck it…………
    Puerto Rico credit rating cut to junk, S&P spokesman says

  122. jj says:

    Actually I think Marriage is what wears men down and ages them. My 35 year old cousins with three kids look the same age as my 50 year old friends wth three kids the same age.

    I think difference is when I have lousy days I think back on the good days. Folks who married the girl they dated in college have not much to look back on.

    Why do old folk hate young folk so much. The condo complex I own in only had two kids in entire complex and they were girls. Then a few weeks ago a women moved out and rented to a couple with a 2 and four year old. The spinster board president and old lady was like I hope they dont make too much noise and it is not really a place for kids. Since I only see them on board meetings and I had it rented to a couple with no kids I dont think they realize I had so many kids.

    Only five units have a lawn in front of unit. The rest have narrow strips of grass or just small patios. Mine has a lawn where I could set up tables, ballons etc. I told her I was thinking of having my daughter birthday party in July at Condo and take the kids to the beach for day and back for BBQ and cake. She was like how young are you kids. I was like I got three between 7 and 13. She almost had a heart attack.

    It seems prior to Sandy and RE turn down condos were more expensive and town is not known for its schools. Now that condos are a lot cheaper they have folks buying like me as summer places, investors, families with small kids.

    When units were all above 400 you had a different crowd when they are all below 300. If I get a hold of a second unit look out. Party Rock is in the house tonight.

    My friend the realtor said never buy in the expensive condo full of hip 30-50 year olds. Always buy in the cnodo with 60-80 year olds. I go why. He goes he buys and holds and rents them out. Then he gets on board and slowly they replace old folk with young folk. When he sells in 25 years he has the hip young building and the currently hip young building is full of old folks.

    Yes I know I cant live forever. But when my kids get older and want to test the waters of moving out I can have them live there to save up funds first. One daughter already likes idea. However, by time they grow up and are back from college that will be a super hip building. I have 10% of building right now in estate sales and another 30% of building over 70. My realtor is also buying in soon. For her 26 year old daughter. She is trying to raise prices too. We just sold a unit in one of the estate sales to a 30 something white guy who just got married to a hot 30 something asian girl. Now that is hipster cool. Need a few more of those hot asian bikini model girls and I will be a rich man.

    NJGator says:
    February 4, 2014 at 3:01 pm
    JJ – Pretty sure your geezer friends with kids wouldn’t be able to live in these places, at least not in NJ. I’m pretty sure that at least one spouse must be 55+ to reside. The exceptions are generally for single adult children over the age of 18, and even that may be limited to one.

    My mother’s cousin lives in a 55 community in Central NJ. They almost were going to permanently take in their preschool age granddaughter, and had they done that, they were going to have to sell their place and move. For a while they had her living with them for month long stints each time and I think even that was causing an issue.

  123. chicagofinance says:

    e-mail me at work and I will poke around quietly….also NJ Coast may be able to comment if she is watching…..BearsFan probably has the freshest perspective…although I don’t know whether he saw anything through Marlboro….

    NJGator says:
    February 4, 2014 at 2:18 pm
    Agents on the board. Is it possible to find out how many sales a listing agent has closed. Am looking Monmouth County area. I suspect my folks hired a real “winner” to sell their place. Would like to see if I can get the numbers to prove it.

  124. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    Needless to say, the Minister of Propagan. . . . er, the WH Press Sec’y has advised that this is a good thing.

    http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/04/news/economy/obamacare-work/index.html?iid=Lead

  125. chicagofinance says:

    jj: new story…..about 10 years ago my (married) aunt shacks up with a (woman) Starbucks barista…..my uncle has been in the emotional sh!tter ever since….he is 74 years old…..he visits my mom last week with his new girlfriend…..freakin’ 26 year old Japanese woman…..smokin’…I saw pictures…..I thinking …dude you rock….and my ex-aunt can go fuk herself…..there is hope for the good guys…..

  126. jj says:

    I stopped buying PR bonds around two years ago. I still have some but at this point I am just holding them.I used to have VI but I sold them all except one or two odd lots.

    Since 2012 I have only been buying NYS bonds. I think Cuomo is doing a good job. The credit spreads of NYS has really compressed these last five years compared to same maturity treasuries.

    I also really unloaded junk too. I bought my condo by selling most of my junk during March to May 2013.

    Sleeping in, playing on over 35 basketball leagues and telecommuting out in sticks is turning your mind to mush. Go home watch some old movies like Boiler Room, Bonfire of the Vanities and Scarface and get your butt back to wall street.

    You are still mad cause when I was buying Ford Bonds at 15 cents on the dollar during financial crisis you were sucking your thumb like a baby curled up in a ball like it was first night in prision.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 4, 2014 at 3:41 pm
    jj can suck it…………
    Puerto Rico credit rating cut to junk, S&P spokesman says

  127. jj says:

    White women think Cooking, Fuking and Suking are three cities in China.

    Please post pictures of the hot Japanese girl.

    That guys funeral is going to cost a fortune. The mortician will have to charge for 20 extra hours work to get the smile off his face.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 4, 2014 at 3:51 pm
    jj: new story…..about 10 years ago my (married) aunt shacks up with a (woman) Starbucks barista…..my uncle has been in the emotional sh!tter ever since….he is 74 years old…..he visits my mom last week with his new girlfriend…..freakin’ 26 year old Japanese woman…..smokin’…I saw pictures…..I thinking …dude you rock….and my ex-aunt can go fuk herself…..there is hope for the good guys…..

  128. Juice Box says:

    re: # 132 – Chi did he pick her from a catalog?

  129. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [131];

    Funny exchange between Carney and the press corps on Israel. The folk running the ship always like to think of themselves as the smartest people in the room.

    First Reporter: What city does this Administration consider to be the capital of Israel? Jerusalem or Tel Aviv?
    Carney: Um . . . I haven’t had that question in a while. Our position has not changed. Can we, uh . . .
    First Reporter: What is the capital?
    Carney: You know our position.
    First Reporter: I don’t.
    Second Reporter: No, no. She doesn’t know, that’s why she asked.
    Carney: She does know.
    First Reporter: I don’t.
    Second Reporter: She does not know. She just said that she does not know. I don’t know.
    Carney: We have long, lets not call on . . .
    Second Reporter: Tel Aviv or Jerusalem?
    Carney: You know the answer to that.
    Second Reporter: I don’t know the answer. We don’t know the answer. Could you just give us an answer? What do you recognize? What does the administration recognize?
    Carney: Our position has not changed.
    Second Reporter: What position?

    Carney ignored him and moved on to another question.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/07/26/whs_carney_refuses_to_name_the_capital_of_israel.html

  130. Godzilla knows about Influence says:

    Gentlemen, may I modify your saying about influence. One that applies in the intelligence field and in NJ politics, as Waldstein is using with Gov “Cartman” Christie.

    Is what you know about who you know.

  131. Blow the mf’er up and start again. We are firmly in the endtimes.

  132. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
  133. I’ll need a helmet to match that shirt.

  134. BearsFan says:

    Gator, I can ask my realtor (family) how it’s tracked and if accessible. I would imagine grim knows for sure. If there is a list available, I’ll holla if I get it.

  135. chicagofinance says:

    BearsFan….you are not related in any way to NJ Coast?

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