Homeownership vs Headship

From the Atlantic:

Why We Shouldn’t Obsess Over the Falling Homeownership Rate

In the midst of the recession, millions of Americans began to “double up,” in the language of demographers: Parents moved in with their children, recent college graduates returned home with their parents, unrelated families combined households, while single adults who might otherwise have lived on their own found a room to rent instead.

We seldom describe these people this way, but they essentially dropped out of the housing market, in precisely the same way that would-be workers who give up on finding a job “drop out” of the labor pool.

Now, six years after the recession began, many of these people have yet to re-emerge – to move out of the basement or the spare bedroom, to form their own households. And as Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, pointed out in The New York Times last week, this “doubled up” population points to a key flaw in how we think about America’s homeownership rate.

That figure has been declining since about 2005, and on Friday the Census Bureau confirmed that it was still languishing. At the end of 2013, the homeownership rate was 65.2 percent, down slightly from where it had been a year earlier and still down substantially from the all-time high.

“You would never guess from the falling homeownership rate that there’s right now a big boom in apartment rental construction, but there is,” Kolko says by phone. “At the extreme, if all that were happening right now in the housing market were young people moving out of their parents’ homes into rentals, that would clearly be good for the economy. That would stimulate a lot of apartment building construction. And there would be no change in the number of homeowners.”

In fact, the homeownership rate might actually go down as a result.

Declining unemployment can be deceptive, as can declining homeownership. We don’t typically bring this same skepticism, though, to homeownership statistics. But, as Kolko points out, there is a way to do this. We can look at a more obscure statistic called the “headship rate,” which reflects the share of all people who head a household. As more people double up, the headship rate goes down. As more twenty-somethings move out of their parents’ homes and into their own one-bedrooms and studios, the headship rate will go up.

If you work in the housing construction industry, this is the number you care about. When the headship rate goes up, that stimulates demand for new housing. And that can happen even as the homeownership rate goes down.

The government doesn’t currently produce a single, official headship statistic in the same way it does with labor force participation (the number looks a little different depending on which Census data you rely on to produce it). But the government probably should, because this one data point has value for two big reasons: It gives us a fuller picture of what’s going on with homeowners. And it tells us something about the health of the housing market without implying that everyone should aspire to own a home.

If you’re agnostic on this point – if you think we should stop behaving in America as if homeownership were the ultimate sign of personal financial responsibility – then the headship rate recognizes that renters are a crucial part of the picture, too. A housing recovery will be good for the economy. But that’s not because more people will own homes; it’s because we’ll need to build more homes, regardless of whether the people living inside own them or not.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, New Development. Bookmark the permalink.

65 Responses to Homeownership vs Headship

  1. Essex says:

    Not to brag but my bank says I have an outstanding balance.

  2. Essex says:

    ADP’s January National Employment Report is out.
    The payroll-processing firm estimates 175,000 workers were hired by private-sector firms in January. Market economists were looking for a 185,000 estimate.

    The December estimate from ADP’s previous report was revised down to 227,000 from 238,000.

  3. Bad employment numbers and downward revisions to previous reports.

    Same old shit, different day.

    Want fries with that?

  4. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: What is your “headship” rate?

  5. chicagofinance says:

    The boy your daughter’s love…..
    The leased jet Justin Bieber and his entourage flew to the Super Bowl was so full of weed smoke that the pilots had to wear oxygen masks, according to a bombshell new report.
    And Bieber and his father Jeremy were so abusive to a flight attendant that she had to hide in the c-ckpit.
    NBC News, citing an official report of the incident, reports the captain of the flight warned the passengers several times to stop smoking weed.
    “The captain also stated he needed to request that the passengers stop their harassing behavior toward the flight attendant and after several warnings asked the flight attendant to stay with him near the c-ckpit to avoid any further abuse,” the official report said.
    “The flight attendant stated the passengers, including Bieber and his father, Jeremy Bieber were extremely abusive verbally and she would not work another flight with them.”
    Sources told NBC the pilots had to wear oxygen masks because they risked inhaling the marijuana and failing any later drug tests.
    The flight from Bieber’s native Canada arrived at Teterboro Airport in New Jersey Friday and was promptly searched after authorities noticed a strong smell of marijuana.
    The 19-year-old pop star spent several hours in custody but was released after drug-sniffing canine cops came up empty.
    None of the flight crew were willing to file charges against their passengers, NBC reported.

  6. jj says:

    People forget after crash of housing in 1989 kids who graduated college from pretty much 1984 to 1996 wanted nothing to do with buying a coop or condo or starter home. They saw so many folks ten year older rush to buy in their 20s and had an anchor around their neck for a decade.

    My buddy who was same age as me used to be pissed he got married right out of college bought a fixer upper levitown capt at peak of market in 1980s and in the early 90s I used to go skiing, hamptons, had convertibles, spring break you name it on the same salary as him except he drove a 15 year old car and made his own lunch and was deadbroke as the peak priced house was an anchor around his neck.

    Many of my friends rented till around 35 – 40 and then just bought the trade up house as their first house.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 5, 2014 at 9:22 am
    JJ: What is your “headship” rate?

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    #6…thanks for describing me….did we know each other!

  8. xolepa says:

    (6) On the other hand, JJ, some of us who bought (or built) at the nadir in the early 90’s made out quite well with housing. Unfortunately, JJ, the train passed you by while you were attempting to board for the Hamptons.

  9. Essex says:

    JJ needs to write the definitive recent history of Wall Street from the POV of the average guy. P.S. get someone other than DeCaprio to star in it. Someone like a regular guy type. As hard as Leo tries he’s still that little fruitcake from Gilbert Grape.

  10. ?? ?? says:

    白目の部一人で大きくなったよ行列はゆっくりと動き、|真鍮《しんちゅう》の|柵《さく》が|嵌《は》めこまれた出納室の窓口に、ト&#12

  11. 1987 Condo says:

    Question for JJ: My son is Accounting major and looking for summer work. He is completing sophomore year, but seems most firms are just looking for juniors for internships and even “seasonal” help…any thoughts?

  12. Anon E. Moose says:

    Sx[9];

    Matt Damon?

  13. Essex says:

    12. Winner! But if JJ’s character is true to form it would have to be Johnny Knoxville.

  14. Juice Box says:

    re # 5 – Chi his deadbeat old man finally got his hooks into the kid and acts like the rest of his mangy entourage and generally encourages all of the illegal and just plain bad behavior instead of being a parent. The kid if he is to survive the next few years needs to jettison his old man and the entourage. A few months in jail would probably be good for him with bubba in the next cell to remind him what comes next if he continues to burn through his money and act like a moron.

  15. 1987 Condo says:

    For Gary: Pocket Listings!

    One of the worst things a home seller can do when listing a home is price it too high.

    Why? Because when a home sits on a Multiple Listing Service for months, and undergoes a few price cuts, prospective buyers will suspect there’s something wrong with it. And those who eventually are interested are more likely to fight for a lower price.

    That’s why some sellers are asking their agents to market the home by word-of-mouth among colleagues and brokers, before the property ever is entered into a Multiple Listing Service, a database real-estate agents use to locate homes for clients. At a time when home prices are on the rise, sellers are able to test the market with these “pre-MLS,” or “pocket,” listings, using prices that may be slightly higher than some comparable homes. These typically aren’t people who need to sell in a hurry; they’re often homeowners who are willing to wait to get the best price for their home.

    “It’s a good way to tap into the market prior to going on the MLS,” said Hope Firsel, who with her husband, Chad, is putting a home in the North Center neighborhood of Chicago up for sale—but has not listed it officially just yet. It’s a custom-built, upscale home—complete with six bedrooms, a wood-burning fireplace and a decked-out home theater—and they want to make sure that their price is in line with the market before listing. “We don’t want to burn time on the MLS before we know what the honest feedback is,” she said.
    ‘If that’s a listing in your pocket, I’m happy to see you.’
    It’s not only sellers who have something to gain from going this route, said Jennifer Ames, the Chicago-based Coldwell Banker broker who represents the Firsel family.

    Given the inventory shortage in some markets, bidding wars are more common. Would-be buyers sometimes lose bids on multiple properties. Frustrated, they ask their agents for help in locating homes that haven’t hit the market yet—with an intention to lessen their odds of being burned again.

    The seller may not negotiate as much in the sale, but the buyer is happy to get the house, rather than engage in another dogfight, Ames said.

    On a recent weekend, half of Ames’s 25 showing requests were for her pocket listings. “It’s almost an underground market,” Ames said.

    This concept of sharing information prior to listing isn’t new, said David Faudman, founder and chief executive of Top Agent Network, an online community where the top 10% of real-estate agents in local markets (based on sales volume) collaborate, in part to share information on pocket listings with each other. It’s just that technology is making it easier to connect with other agents.

    “Despite what you might read in the newspapers about pocket listings being more popular, now systems and technologies make it easier for agents to communicate about them,” Faudman said. “It used to be that agents would whisper to each other, ‘I have something coming up.’ ”

    While pocket listing is a strategy that can be used at any price point, it often has particular appeal to luxury buyers. Sometimes, as in cases of high-profile sellers who don’t want many people walking through their home, sellers never intend to list. More often, a seller’s agent will create some word-of-mouth buzz while marketing materials are still being assembled or closets are being cleaned out, Ames said.

    “Sometimes you and the seller don’t see eye to eye, and as agents we are posed with: Should we bring this on the market at $8.5 million [when] it’s really like a $6.5 million house,” said Billy Rose, broker with The Agency in Los Angeles, which specializes in luxury properties. “We will bring something on as a pocket to give the seller their chance to feel like they got a look at the price.”

    If there are no takers, the home can be priced more competitively before it’s listed. (The time on market officially starts ticking when the home hits the MLS; its time as a pocket listing isn’t on the record.) Or, if the home is purchased before it is listed, “the seller can say, ‘See, I told you,’ ” Rose said.

    The risks of pocket listing

    Buyers may like the reduced competition of a pocket listing, but they risk overpaying when home sellers test the market. Sellers risk losing out, too, if they underprice their property.

    That’s why some agents will always recommend listing. “As a broker, I think I would deliver more value to my client if I marketed their listing widespread and deep, and to as many avenues as I can, making it look as good as possible,” said Ron Escobar, a Century 21 broker in Los Angeles.

    One recent example of when listing a home paid off for the seller: Shortly after listing, one Leonia, N.J., property had eight offers in a week, said Johnny Rojas, a Century 21 broker in New Jersey. The original listing price: $389,000. The best and final offer: $425,000.

    In fact, if a seller who is working with a real-estate agent wants to delay or decline listing on the MLS, they may need to sign an opt-out form—after receiving an explanation of the benefits of placing a home on the MLS, said Lesley Walker, associate counsel with the National Association of Realtors.

    Sellers interested in the pocket-listing route should employ the services of a real-estate agent who has a clear strategy for marketing the property to interested parties and, above all, will place the seller’s interests ahead of their own. For instance, an agent in this situation may try to find a buyer who is their own client; some would argue that makes it impossible for both sides to get a fair deal.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-some-homes-have-a-secret-for-sale-sign-2014-02-04?link=mw_story_kiosk

  16. jj says:

    If you take the housing downturn chart by month of late 80s and early 90s I bought my coop the month of the all time low. Fully renovated from Resolution Trust Company to boot. My only complaint is I did not cash out 401K and sell car to buy a bigger place. Back then everything was on sale.

    I bought my current house x-mas week 1999. Remember Y2K panic. Realtor told me to withrawl month for closing and bring it home in case of crash. I was laughing.

    Condo I bought at beach Spring 2013 after Sandy.

    My only big problem. I time the dips but my balls are not big enough. All three times I bought little cheap places during firesales. That was stupid. Kinda like my brother in law who bought Citi Stock at all time low around 99 cents a share. Perfect timing. I ask him so how much did you buy, he goes 500 shares. I go why so little he is like I was scared. He had it right, but like me when 99.99 percent of folks are calling you an idiot for buying it is hard to go all in.

    BTW in regards to wall street stories Wall street has been boring since the crash of 1987. The real characters folks like Chi-fi never me. I had the opportunity to work with REAL wall street folks. They were very colorful.

    For example I worked at EF Hutton first job on Wall Street. Anyhow they were around a very long time and folks started at the firm back in the day when they were 16 to 18 years old and no one had a college degree back in the day. The two Senior VPs in my dept only had HS degrees. Since Hutton paid pretty good folks stayed a long time and since folks like my SVPS who were making 100K a year in 1986 with a HS degree certainly would not leave you had some interesting folk.

    Most interesting was over in the coupon clipping area we had a women who was a 67 Year employee. Started at 16 as a Chalkboard girl over at 2 Broadway which had the largest Chalkboard in the world. Anyhow you were assigned certain letters. Yes most stocks were single letters back them. F was Ford, C was Chrysler, Z was Woolworth you get my drift. So all day she got prices erased and re-wrote the prices.

    Folks sat in the Auditorium with physical securities they wanted to sell. Folks came with checks if they wanted to buy. The EF Hutton Brokers were in the room with a table in the back. When you wanted to sell when it hit your price you would yell out, someone in the room would yell out they wanted to buy it and went to back and EF Hutton Broker had you sign stock power and then take out his medalions and stamp it to assign it to you and make sure check was good and you exchanged certificates.

    Amazing we had folks like that still there. They all got let go, fired, retired from wall street from 1987 to 1992 and by the time 1993 came and marker recovered they were all gone. Folks like Chifi came and stole their jobs. Wall Street went from needing a HS degree, to a college degree to a MBA from a top school in the space of just 25 years.

    xolepa says:
    February 5, 2014 at 9:51 am
    (6) On the other hand, JJ, some of us who bought (or built) at the nadir in the early 90′s made out quite well with housing. Unfortunately, JJ, the train passed you by while you were attempting to board for the Hamptons.

  17. Bystander says:

    Hope nobody was dabbling in DDD stock…geez.

  18. Juice Box says:

    Pay up Deblasio..we put you in office it is time to pay up……teachers want their 3.4 billon in back pay and raises. Only the first of 152 Unions lining up.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/nyregion/teachers-push-for-back-pay-may-pinch-city.html?ref=nyregio

  19. jj says:

    I once dabbled in a triple DDD the girls bra had more hooks and rivets that the hull of a battleship when the monsters were unleashed I felt like a five year boy with a 50 pound lollipop

    Bystander says:
    February 5, 2014 at 11:21 am
    Hope nobody was dabbling in DDD stock…geez.

  20. Carlito says:

    JJ: DDD, that’s right from the Amardord movie!!! see pic at the bottom of the link…

    http://www.jonathanrosenbaum.net/1974/09/amarcord-1974-review-2/

  21. joyce says:

    [Don’t bring a snowball to a gun fight]

    Note the following: the non-costume wearing people in the story who did nothing wrong were criminally charged, thankfully dismissed… and the guy in blue is never charged criminally and the taxpayers will pay for his crimes via a CIVIL suit

    http://benswann.com/video-cop-brings-gun-to-a-snowball-fight-could-cost-nyc-10-million/

    In February of 2010 off duty NYPD officer, Sgt. Adonis Ramirez, 34, after being hit by a snowball in the leg, drew his concealed weapon on a group of young men and ordered them to kneel against a fence. He now stands accused of false arrest and battery.

    Inconsistencies in his story have been revealed during his recent testimony in a $10 million dollar civil suit brought against the NYPD.

    In his initial report to officers Ramirez claimed that while walking, “he felt himself get struck on the back by multiple snowballs.” While testifying in court last Tuesday he admitted that it was only “one” snowball and that it struck him in the leg.

    He then went on to claim that he didn’t recall telling police that the young men had chased him, although he had stated in police reports that he feared for his “immediate safety”. Previously, Ramirez had claimed the group chased him down the street and threatened him while pelting him with multiple snowballs.

    Ramirez also changed his statement about how long it took him to draw his weapon after being hit a snowball, from an earlier estimate of over a minute, he revised that to 15 to 30 seconds in court testimony.

    It appears that Ramirez was forced to amend his statements after surveillance footage surfaced that contradicted the officer’s version of events about multiple snowballs being thrown and the men chasing him.

    Manuel Rondon, 22, Christian Perez, 23, Johnathan Rodriguez, 26, Anthony Aquino, 19, and Ariel Lopez, 21, were all arrested and charged with criminal possession of a weapon, attempted assault, menacing, and harassment and were forced to spend the a day and a half in jail.

    The alleged weapon in question… a snowball.

    None of the young men had ever been in any trouble before. 18 year old Ariel Lopez said, “We’re innocent, we didn’t do anything wrong and he overreacted.” Manuel Rondon went on to state, “I felt that at that moment one of us was going to get killed or shot.”

    The attorney for the five young men claims that Ramirez, “made up facts. He never got hit with a snowball. This guy brings a loaded gun to a snowball fight. It’s an incredible abuse of power by a bully with a badge,” said attorney Neil Wollerstein.

    Eventually all charges against the young men were dropped by the Bronx district attorney.

    According to Ramirez, while he may not have had all his facts straight, he felt a possible threat existed and that his actions were fully justified, claiming, “I was outnumbered, and I wasn’t taking any chances.”

    In the “officer needs assistance” call made to 911 to get assistance from New Yorks finest, to protect this officer from the brutal snowball “assault”, Ramirez can be heard telling the young men, while held at gunpoint, “Do not move, Do not move. You brought this upon yourself. You want to be a d–k?” His words come off as strikingly retaliatory rather than based on a fear for his own personal safety.

    The abuse of authority and lack of training exhibited in this case are stunning. Mr. Ramirez must have missed the memo that badges don’t grant extra rights. The militarization of the police across the US has seemingly created a pandemic of officers acting as though they are above the law they are sworn to uphold. Hopefully, Officer Ramirez, the NYPD, and the city of New York get the memo on this one.

  22. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    Hah, DDD is just insane. Back when I was 22, I worked part time at arcade. This girl used to come in who worked in mall too. She used to wear baggy sweaters but could tell there were huge chesticles lying beneath. We went for drinks one night then back to her place. She was lying on her back on the couch and when I unhooked, it looked like she had two bald men in headlocks. It was part mesmerizing and part holy sh*t where do I begin. Honestly that is too much boob.

  23. Libturd at home now that son has a fever. says:

    P/E of 143 after today’s 20% drop. I don’t touch anything with a P/E over 30.

  24. jj says:

    Want to hear the weirdest I once had a one large, one medium girl.

    The second one was padded to match the bigger one. Looked like a tall bald man standing next to a short bald man. Honestly I was scared to touch them. Do you touch them both,?Do you touch the bigger one only? Do you touch the little one only cause maybe no body touches it?

    In the end I kinda touched them but somehow it was like stale beer. I wanted them but somehow when I got them I didnt want them.

    Bystander says:

    February 5, 2014 at 12:10 pm
    JJ,

    Hah, DDD is just insane. Back when I was 22, I worked part time at arcade. This girl used to come in who worked in mall too. She used to wear baggy sweaters but could tell there were huge chesticles lying beneath. We went for drinks one night then back to her place. She was lying on her back on the couch and when I unhooked, it looked like she had two bald men in headlocks. It was part mesmerizing and part holy sh*t where do I begin. Honestly that is too much boob.

  25. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    You gotta hope you drank enough beer to deal with those situations. I hooked up with a girl who looked like she had Art Gurfunkel in a leglock. She was a parole officer in Maryland so pretty aggressive gal. You gotta roll with it.

  26. Avid NJRER reader says:

    Grim, thanks for running this blog. I appreciate all the regulars that provide my daily entertainment and education.

    I’m a NJ resident and homeowner (not a bank-renter) who’s seeking guidance for restructuring a 6 figure portfolio… any CFPs here accepting new clients? Chifi perhaps?

  27. jj says:

    And pray you have a good tail wind to keep it up. Once ended up with a 1NS wtih a girl from the tough part of Philly who was the Logistics Manager at the loading Dock at UPS. Man she was barking out orders like it was xmas even and she had a loading doc full of teamsters. I swear I need a plank strapped to my butt to keep from being sucked into the vortez.

    She cleaned me out so much I saw a cheerio I stuck up my nose when I was three years old get sucked out.

    Bystander says:
    February 5, 2014 at 12:44 pm
    JJ,

    You gotta hope you drank enough beer to deal with those situations. I hooked up with a girl who looked like she had Art Gurfunkel in a leglock. She was a parole officer in Maryland so pretty aggressive gal. You gotta roll with it.

  28. Fabius Maximus says:

    #27
    If you are low to mid sixes and above, I would go with a fee only planner and keep it simple. You pay for what you need and you are not paying for all the crp that comes along with the bigger chains and even the boutique shops.

    Regardless who you go with, watch the fees and check the qualifications.

    http://www.feeonlynetwork.com/NJ-financial-planner

  29. Avid NJRER reader says:

    @ #29 Fabmax: Thanks for the advice!

  30. BearsFan says:

    gator/chi – Gator, I think I can get you a chart, but I’d need the agents name. Feel free to ask Grim for my email. Chi – no, I am not related to/do not know NJ Coast. Why did u ask that?

  31. jj says:

    I offer financial planning between my rants and raves occasionally there are tibits of finanical advice.

    Somewhere in a box with an old collection of concert ticket stubs that fainly smell like stale beer and pot is my a picture frame that contains my MBA in Finance Certificate. It is almost as valuable as my scratched Led Zep Record colleciton.

  32. chicagofinance says:

    Totally chickened out an dumped everyone out on November 18 area….mostly $83-ish…..it is a great concept, but I can’t screw around because I am regulated and when things get stupid I have to get out of dodge…..

    Bystander says:
    February 5, 2014 at 11:21 am
    Hope nobody was dabbling in DDD stock…geez.

  33. chicagofinance says:

    I offer an hour to pick my brain free of charge and no strings attached…..just don’t abuse my good faith and intentions…..that is all…..

    Avid NJRER reader says:

    February 5, 2014 at 12:47 pm

    Grim, thanks for running this blog. I appreciate all the regulars that provide my daily entertainment and education.

    I’m a NJ resident and homeowner (not a bank-renter) who’s seeking guidance for restructuring a 6 figure portfolio… any CFPs here accepting new clients? Chifi perhaps?

  34. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: best I ever managed was topping out at DD……I used to love to do this to them with my face….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpibmkp7Iw8

    jj says:

    February 5, 2014 at 11:43 am

    I once dabbled in a triple DDD the girls bra had more hooks and rivets that the hull of a battleship when the monsters were unleashed I felt like a five year boy with a 50 pound lollipop

    Bystander says:
    February 5, 2014 at 11:21 am
    Hope nobody was dabbling in DDD stock…geez.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    What Flabmax fails to disclose is that with fee-only, only those with roughly $750K+ need apply…..if anyone works with you for an amount less than that figure, they are either underqualified or desperate, or you will be overcharged (yes, on a fee-only/conflict-free/ and fuk you basis).

    Fabius Maximus says:

    February 5, 2014 at 1:26 pm

    #27
    If you are low to mid sixes and above, I would go with a fee only planner and keep it simple. You pay for what you need and you are not paying for all the crp that comes along with the bigger chains and even the boutique shops.

    Regardless who you go with, watch the fees and check the qualifications.

    http://www.feeonlynetwork.com/NJ-financial-planner

  36. Avid NJRER reader says:

    @ #32 JJ: Appreciate the offer and love the ‘riveting’ stories!

    @ #34 ChiFi: That’s a very generous offer I’d like to take you up on – I promise not to be ‘the thing that wouldn’t leave’. Let me know how to contact you.

    @ #35 ChiFi: Motorboat!

  37. jj says:

    Chifi only an hour to pick your brain?

    I need to first find out if Avid NJRER reader is male or female, married or single, before I would tell her how much time.

    If she is a hot women I would do three hours instead of one as the hot sheets hotels charge you fora minium of three hours anyhow.

    If it is a man it also could be longer if it involves free beer and chicken wings.

    chicagofinance says:
    February 5, 2014 at 2:20 pm
    chicagofinance@yahoo.com

  38. Avid NJRER reader says:

    @ #36 ChiFi: Appreciate you pointing this out. My parents, who are by no means skilled investors, used a fee-only CFP that had a listing on that referral site that charged them thousands for advice they probably could have gotten on a blog (assuming they’d read the correct one of course)…. left me very wary of getting minimal value for that kind of coin.

  39. chicagofinance says:

    Any longer creates irreversible long-term damage…..

    jj says: February 5, 2014 at 2:25 pm
    Chifi only an hour to pick your brain?

  40. Avid NJRER reader says:

    @ #39 ChiFi: Thanks… will contact you within the next day or two.

    Hope you’ll settle for brew and wings. :-)

  41. chi (38)-

    Magpies need a dose of that.

  42. Statler Waldorf says:

    Has investing improved, or worsened, since?

    “Wall Street went from needing a HS degree, to a college degree to a MBA from a top school in the space of just 25 years.”

  43. chicagofinance says:

    track computing power…..

    Statler Waldorf says:
    February 5, 2014 at 2:41 pm
    Has investing improved, or worsened, since?

    “Wall Street went from needing a HS degree, to a college degree to a MBA from a top school in the space of just 25 years.”

  44. joyce says:

    Improved for whom?

    chicagofinance says:
    February 5, 2014 at 2:47 pm
    track computing power…..

    Statler Waldorf says:
    February 5, 2014 at 2:41 pm
    Has investing improved, or worsened, since?

    “Wall Street went from needing a HS degree, to a college degree to a MBA from a top school in the space of just 25 years.”

  45. jj says:

    Here is a true and interesting story about how useless computers are in banking and brokerage.

    On September 2, 1969, Chemical Bank installed the first ATM in the U.S. at its branch in Rockville Centre, New York. The first ATMs were designed to dispense a fixed amount of cash when a user inserted a specially coded card. A Chemical Bank advertisement boasted “On Sept. 2 our bank will open at 9:00 and never close again. Chemical’s ATM, initially known as a Docuteller was designed by Donald Wetzel and his company Docutel. Chemical executives were initially hesitant about the electronic banking transition given the high cost of the early machines. Additionally, executives were concerned that customers would resist having machines handling their money In 1995, the Smithsonian National Museum of American History recognised Docutel and Wetzel as the inventors of the networked ATM

    Fast forward 20 the year 2012 after Sandy. All bank branches were knocked after Sandy pretty much South of Sunrise. That Chemical Bank Branch from 1969 is till there now a JP Morgan Chase branch. I went to it several times after Sandy to get cash and do transactions. All the teller windows had tellers and I was taking out cash for contractors, depositing checks etc.

    But wait in 1969 the future of banking was announced to be ATMs to replace Tellers, wait in 1999 on line banking was to replace the tellers, in 2011 the new Apps where you snap pictures of checks on your smart phone was to replace tellers.

    Guess what Chase now managers a network of ATMs, a huge internet online banking site, has aps developers etc. But the tellers are still there.

    Only difference I noticed when I was in HS Chemical gave out free pens and calenders. Now that branch gave out free lollipops and coffee.

    On a total side note my wife when she was 21 appeared in advertisements for Chemical bank. The ads showed her using the ATMs and was part of a brochure given out at the branches when you opened an account with an ATM card.

    My kids laughed so so hard when they saw the print ads and brochures my wife had they were like who needs insturctions and pictures how to use an ATM card you just stick it in slot and money comes out!!!

    Statler Waldorf says:
    February 5, 2014 at 2:41 pm
    Has investing improved, or worsened, since?

    “Wall Street went from needing a HS degree, to a college degree to a MBA from a top school in the space of just 25 years.”

  46. jj says:

    I ment fast forward 43 years!!! 1969 to 2012

  47. There is no such thing as investing anymore.

    It’s all gambling.

  48. Fabius Maximus says:

    #36 Chi

    Fees or commission, pick your poison. I think $750K is the level where you start looking at a more active portfolio management. I think $300K is a good level for a basic set and forget portfolio.

    I prefer fee only as it is more transparent than a BAML desk jockey funneling you into the firms funds or the independent taking a payout from the firm for placing money in a fund.

    I take the point of “used a fee-only CFP that had a listing on that referral site that charged them thousands for advice they probably could have gotten on a blog ” and would say they are not paying for advice, they are paying for confirmation and reassurance. In the same vein ask the questions why am I paying this person 1% to manage something I can manage myself.

    I’m not in this game, so these are my own personal views.

  49. Bystander says:

    Lets get back to DDD. JJ, check this out. This is greatest tennis footage ever. Could watch for hours. Consider that this woman is wearing athletic bra which restricts those puppies.

    http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AcpXYb6Kma0&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DAcpXYb6Kma0

  50. jj says:

    My favorite memory or as I should say is mamory of all time was back when I was 27.

    My GF was in a summer house with of all people my sister and my friends GF. At that point I moved back home for awhile as my lease was up on my apt and I was looking for anothe place.

    So I knew this girl was just turned 20 with massive massive boobs. But she hid them the best she could. I swear the girl had a washboard stomach, thin bikini model legs and a pretty face but in her business suit all strapped in to be honest you could not see that body, in fact her shirt could not tuck in properly in her work clothes as she had to buy larger shirts to cover her 38 Ds. But she lived at home in NJ.

    So I devised a plan to take her to my Hampton house, my sister and my friends sister kept my GF busy. Even offering them a ride and off went my master plan.

    I recall couple of guy in house really did not think much when I showed up Friday night wtih her. She was tired from work and had not changed as we left straight from city. The next day I am taking her to beach and she has a bikini on with short short and cut off shirt. One guy in house a bit older than me tried to dog me right in front of me. He was like you know what after you get back from beach I know a great little bar to go for drinks. She then says that sounds great but I am too young to go to a bar as I am not 21 yet. He bit his freekign lip and starting biting his tounge. Five minutes later he tells me I just took a shower and you dont want to use it as after I talke to that barely 20 year old girl in a bikini I shoot my load all over.

    Later I found out the girl was a crazy nyph, omg like 8 times. Enough of a good thing already and she liked to yell at top of lungs. OMG, what is it with Jersey girls.

    My favorite is I had two cars, I left one the week before in back yard. So when I went out with girl to beach I took the one from behind house and left one in front of house. The GF came by twice and once I was in the shower and once walked up to store. She kept thinking I was around do to my car in driveway. Finally she comes back a third time and goes I know you are in there and this time I am home. I jump in the car in back over the back rail and peeled out of driveway leaving girl then parked car in neighbors back yard and walked through bushes back the next day she goes did you see me. I go no I got invited last minute to a hot bbq and we were just speeding off.

    End of weekend driving home the girl from NJ had no clue what was going on. Meanwhile some of the girls in my house could not stop laughing and half the men had to spank the monkey after breakfast.

    Too bad she coould not lay on her stomach at beach. Craziest at beach I took her up to bar and guy ask for proof she goes I dont have any he goes jesus christ just come one in who am I to say no. Then he high fived me.

  51. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    god bless you JJ

  52. Avid NJRER reader says:

    @ #51 Fab: You read into my comment correctly… I think prior to their meeting with that firm (6-7 yrs ago) my parents were mostly in CDs and treasuries, appropriately enough for retirees. I believe their advice was to stay the course. “That’ll be $7000 please.”

    >>
    I take the point of “used a fee-only CFP that had a listing on that referral site that charged them thousands for advice they probably could have gotten on a blog ” and would say they are not paying for advice, they are paying for confirmation and reassurance. In the same vein ask the questions why am I paying this person 1% to manage something I can manage myself.
    >>

  53. Bystander says:

    JJ,

    I fear for your grandkids and stories they will hear from gramps…especially if you develop Alzheimers.

  54. NJGator says:

    BearsFan 31 – Thanks! I will email Grim.

  55. Essex says:

    23. Once you experience DDDs you are done. If the woman is blessed with a pretty face and is tall enough. Marry her. I did! 20 years later — never regret.

  56. chicagofinance says:

    We don’t agree on much….but that is gospel…..

    Essex says:
    February 5, 2014 at 6:01 pm
    23. Once you experience DDDs you are done. If the woman is blessed with a pretty face and is tall enough. Marry her. I did! 20 years later — never regret.

  57. chicagofinance says:

    I’m sure I’ve posted this item in the past…..interesting, but then it begins to veer into arcane mathematica…….
    http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/moneydoc_aug2013_web.pdf

    Fabius Maximus says:

    February 5, 2014 at 3:25 pm

    #36 Chi

    Fees or commission, pick your poison. I think $750K is the level where you start looking at a more active portfolio management. I think $300K is a good level for a basic set and forget portfolio.

    I prefer fee only as it is more transparent than a BAML desk jockey funneling you into the firms funds or the independent taking a payout from the firm for placing money in a fund.

    I take the point of “used a fee-only CFP that had a listing on that referral site that charged them thousands for advice they probably could have gotten on a blog ” and would say they are not paying for advice, they are paying for confirmation and reassurance. In the same vein ask the questions why am I paying this person 1% to manage something I can manage myself.

    I’m not in this game, so these are my own personal views.

  58. Ben says:

    I’m sure I’ve posted this item in the past…..interesting, but then it begins to veer into arcane mathematica…….
    http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/shleifer/files/moneydoc_aug2013_web.pdf

    I always chuckle when I see integrals and summations trying to model human behavior with four floating variables. I have 10 friggin fingers on my hand.

  59. Ben says:

    err, my hands. That would be cool if I had 10 fingers on one hand.

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