From the Street:
Something Strange is Happening With Home Prices
The latest news out of the housing market isn’t good. Mortgage rates are soaring, and sales are dropping.
The one puzzler is what’s happening with prices.
…
“Fixed mortgage rates have increased by more than two full percentage points since the beginning of the year,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
…
Existing-home sales fell for the fourth straight month in May — 3.4% from April and 8.6% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“Home sales have essentially returned to the levels seen in 2019 — prior to the pandemic — after two years of gangbuster performance,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
…
However, prices aren’t behaving intuitively, yet.
The median existing-home price hit $407,600 in May, up 14.8% from May 2021. This marks 123 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest streak in NAR records.
“Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a statement. “The strength of the [data] suggests very broad strength in the housing market, which we continue to observe.”
As I’ve mentioned, I think you’ll see a traffic jam as the fence-sitters decide to list, get what they can due to changes in dynamics and leave the state. And I really do think they’ll leave the state. Politics has become as important as economics but that’s another discussion. The inventory will increase as we enter the fall months. Then we can get a better picture. If the monthly payment is the key indicator for muppets, then price needs to come down to meet the number.
If the fed continues to raise rates prices will drop, those 20% gains will all be gone and then some. It will only happen if Powell can be as strong and nasty as Volcker was, free money should be a thing of the past.
Pull up a chair and enjoy the show, it will be educational for people who have never witnessed 9 to 10% interest rates. Inflation will be a thing of the past only if Powell can handle the critics.
I remember 16% mortgage rates in the early 80s. It would be nice to have a CD paying 6% or 7% at minimum. Parking 50K or 100K cash for a few years would be nice. Let’s see what Powell will do. The FED needs to push the throttle and shake the tree vigorously.
By the way, the Delta T between the air return and flow in my downstairs zone appears to be 10 degrees but I have one return in the basement near the air handler and the others are in the living room where cool air is already there. It’s hard to get a fix on it. I’m probably over-analyzing it but it’s what I do for a living. lol. The house is comfortable, maybe I should leave it there. :)
Looks like I have been correct so far with housing prices. Raising rates will not destroy pricing. Going to lead to low sales volume and not much of a price drop. Unless economy falls off a cliff, not happening. Need lots of people to lose jobs to see major correction in pricing. Doubt the FED let’s that happen. They do not want a deflation Spiral because it’s almost impossible to stop once it takes hold.
You have to understand how much demand is out there from millennials. They don’t care about the price, they just want a house so they can move on with their life.
Like I said, this would destroy the economy and lead us down an deflationary spiral. Every single wealthy individual would take their money out of investments to grow the economy and park it in cd’s to collect easy money with no risk. Would destroy the stock market. Would destroy growth.
Fast Eddie says:
June 26, 2022 at 8:45 am
I remember 16% mortgage rates in the early 80s. It would be nice to have a CD paying 6% or 7% at minimum. Parking 50K or 100K cash for a few years would be nice.
Jim,
The FED should have used the term “unsustainable” instead of “transitory.” That’s what they meant when they said transitory. Understand the FED is at war with deflation. Inflation is anomaly of the pandemic broken supply chain. That’s all it is and that’s not sustainable as we already see commodity and energy getting smashed. This is not the 1970s. That was real inflation.
Understand that this war with deflation has been happening for 40 years. Evidence? They have been lowering rates for 40 years straight. Just think about that and tell me I’m wrong.
You guys call it easy money, but what did that easy money do from 2009-2020? It barely kept inflation going to the point European nations went with negative rates. Think about that before you yell at me and call me the village idiot.
If fed stimulus is to blame for this current inflation, why did it not come to japan for 30 years? They have been trying their damn best to create inflation in japan for how long to no avail. Why didn’t we see massive inflation with QE going for 14 years? Why only when they shut down the economy and created supply chain distortions did we finally get inflation? That inflation is not sustainable unless you keep f’ing up the supply chain causing companies to sit idle with production till they get the supplies needed to build their their products.
Nobody is leaving the state. You, for one, ain’t leaving. Right wingers enjoy a very high quality of life in liberal NJ
At last! Expectations for Fed rate CUTS are finally increasing, which is the main reason why the stock market rallied last week. See the emerging red ink below 0 for 2023.
We saw the biggest drop in 10 years in the June US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Further, we finally saw a decline in oil prices this week.
If the trend continues, then it is likely we will see clear signs of inflation peaking once the July data comes out in August. We might even get positive June inflation data out in July.
If this is the case, 3.5% was likely the peak for the 10-year bond yield. With less fear of a further rise in interest rates, risk appetite should increase, resulting in a rebound in equities in 2H2022.
This thought process also implies 3,666 on the S&P 500 may be the bottom of this latest bear market. Obviously, there are no certainties when it comes to investing.
However, if the S&P 500 drops below 3,700 again, I will be a more aggressive buyer as I mentioned in last week’s newsletter. ~15X earnings is reasonable.
What About The Real Estate Market?
If the equities market has reached a bottom or is forming a bottom and will rebound in 2H, how should one invest in the real estate market?
The U.S. median housing price has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 25% year-to-date because the median home price is up year-to-date.
However, the real estate market tends to lag the stock market by 6-12 months due to a lot more friction when it comes to selling. You’ve got to find a new place, pack, list, give up your low mortgage, find an agent, pay taxes and fees, etc. What a PITA!
Therefore, real estate buyers can probably still find deals 5% – 10% lower than January 2022 prices over the next six months. But anything more than a 10% discount will be hard to find.
If equities resume their upward trend and interest rates resume their 40+-year downward trend by end of 2022, then the demand for real estate will likely rebound again.
As a result, if you’re in the market for a new home or investment property, I say the time to look aggressively for deals is from now thru this winter.
Esp since housing became on par in these other locations. You are going to move to a location that is on par with housing prices, but pays way less when it comes to jobs? Sounds like a genius move to me…but but but there is no income tax. Yes, and you make no money in these locations. Only people that benefit from the no income tax are wealthy individuals making huge money off passive income. They aren’t moving to florida to work.
Very Stable Genius says:
June 26, 2022 at 9:14 am
Nobody is leaving the state. You, for one, ain’t leaving. Right wingers enjoy a very high quality of life in liberal NJ
This below is from WolfStreet regarding housing prices. He’s more SF area driven. His point is higher mortgage rates take out the lowest price buyers, so sales completed are those of higher prices.
My favorite illustration: To get the median price in a market where 9 homes sold, you list them by price from the highest to the lowest, and the price of the fifth house from the top or the fifth from the bottom (same house) is the price in the middle = median price.
But if the two cheapest houses don’t sell, and if the remaining seven homes sell, the middle is now the fourth house down, or the fourth house up. This change in mix skews the metric of the median price, though the actual prices of the homes haven’t changed:
This change in mix is what happened in the US too.
Sales of homes priced below $500,000 have plunged, while sales above $500,000 have surged year-over-year, and these dramatic changes the mix have skewed the median price upward, according to data from the NAR:
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 26, 2022 at 9:08 am
Think about that before you yell at me and call me the village idiot.
Pumps, You have earned that name , wear it proudly! If we followed all your advice we would be bankrupt and living in poverty… maybe your gramma could gives us all a four unit building. That would even the playing field.
You should sign yourself as the Village Idiot instead of Great Pumpkin, that way we could enjoy your cut and paste articles more.
Jim: This one day euphoria in the market is reflective of the Fed perhaps not being as aggressive going forward with rate hikes, but they will still be hiking going forward. 75 bps increase is a given at the end of July. The Fed is not going to reverse and cut rates, they may stand out for a while, but to think they will cut rates and start the madness all over again is irrational. This belief that they saw no inflation and thus continued to cut and go forward with massive quantitative easing was disastrous on their part, and they have pretty much acknowledged it. The Fed is supposed to be anticipating what the results of their actions will be going forward, and it takes time for the impact of their actions to appear in the economy, away from that the Feds metric for measuring inflation is flawed in my view , and in the view of people much smarter than I am. That last 20 percent run up in house prices in a year was pure bubble madness, nothing more.
Say what? You would be bankrupt from my advice? Whoa…get a clue. You are the one’s that were saying housing was dead when I said to buy.
As for ark…yea, it was the canary in the coal mine for the stock market. You all LOST. You should have listened to me and exited 100% first week of the year like I did.
Jim says:
June 26, 2022 at 10:58 am
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 26, 2022 at 9:08 am
Think about that before you yell at me and call me the village idiot.
Pumps, You have earned that name , wear it proudly! If we followed all your advice we would be bankrupt and living in poverty… maybe your gramma could gives us all a four unit building. That would even the playing field.
You should sign yourself as the Village Idiot instead of Great Pumpkin, that way we could enjoy your cut and paste articles more.
Doi doi!! You mental midget. No chit! You don’t think I understand this? Stop insulting me.
PumpkinIsABadTeacher says:
June 26, 2022 at 10:27 am
Nobody is leaving the state. You, for one, ain’t leaving. Right wingers enjoy a very high quality of life in liberal NJ.
You mean, unlike the deplorables in Red states? You know, the ones who love classic America, that version of America you despise?? The ones willing to fight and die so you and your ilk can finger each other freely? At least you’re being honest and showing your true colors.
Was driven by overwhelming demand from millennials. Simple as that. That’s what happens when you have a huge wave of buyers that were not there before. This isn’t rocket science, yet most people are completely clueless when it comes to this. It’s wild. Yes, the pandemic and FED drove housing 20% up. Sure.
“That last 20 percent run up in house prices in a year was pure bubble madness, nothing more.”
I love when people claim pandemic stimulus drove pricing up 20%. Lmao.
Grand Wizard Jerko Eddie of The Order of The KKK Retards,
Your true colors are showing fat boy, this is your red state army fighting Bezos Amazon new drone. https://youtu.be/s8fnaXiHxUs
You can take the fat out of the dumb bigot, but you can’t take the dumb bigot out of being a jerk.
Just move to Mississipi little fat boy, you should be happier there. Only problem is that you’ll be the smarty pant in the neighborhood, and worse a yankee, or even an italian or other weird ethnicity yankee. So you are not going to have many friends, except the poor mexicans or indian contract workers.
Jim, not true. We wouldn’t be bankrupt. Just our stock portfolios would be down 80%.
“U.S. Rep. Mary Miller immediately drew fierce backlash…when she credited him for the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade calling it a “victory for white life.”
Hmmmmm….so you are aware of the beliefs and motivations of Margaret Sanger, founder of Planned Parenthood, right?
Some gems from a fairly cleansed piece…
After World War I, Sanger increasingly appealed to the societal need to limit births by those least able to afford children. The affluent and educated already limited their child-bearing, while the poor and uneducated lacked access to contraception and information about birth control. Here she found an area of overlap with eugenicists. She believed that they both sought to “assist the race toward the elimination of the unfit.”…
Sanger was a proponent of negative eugenics, which aimed to improve human hereditary traits through social intervention by reducing the reproduction of those who were considered unfit.
Sanger’s eugenics policies included an exclusionary immigration policy, free access to birth control methods, and full family planning autonomy for the able-minded, as well as compulsory segregation or sterilization for the “profoundly retarded”.
Initially she advocated that the responsibility for birth control should remain with able-minded individual parents rather than the state. Later, she proposed that “Permits for parenthood shall be issued upon application by city, county, or state authorities to married couples,”…
She was supported by one of the most racist authors in America in the 1920s, the Klansman Lothrop Stoddard, who was a founding member of the Board of Directors of Sanger’s American Birth Control League.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margaret_Sanger#Eugenics
LOL. You liberals are priceless.
LoL
To be fair, you would have had to go all in at the top to lose 80%. And if you DCA since making your first purchase at the top, you would have been buying a lot of cheap shares and in time that would be worth a lot of money when the next bull goes off. You live too much in the present when it’s a long game.
BRT says:
June 26, 2022 at 2:07 pm
Jim, not true. We wouldn’t be bankrupt. Just our stock portfolios would be down 80%.
My tinfoil hat says this abortion ruling has to do with the pathetic population growth that is nonexistent. I honestly wouldn’t doubt it. Not saying it’s true, but population growth needs all the help it can get…it’s a huge deflationary headwind.
Trump won again. Not even in office and he’s beating the liberals. Lol
Arkk hovered between 130 and 110 for an entire year while you pimped that strategy. Forgive me…down 60%
Just do the math on next bull run and not at the bottom of a bear market. Fair?
Looking not looking for financial advice: Does it make sense to max out on i-bonds in the current environment? J Pow is dragging his feet on rates, and I might as well collect the ~ 8-9% on idle cash over 12-18 months. Thoughts? Just seems like a great place to park.
I’ve more idle cash looking to scale into ETFs in nontaxable and 529 accounts.
So you are not going to have many friends, except the poor mexicans or indian contract workers.
Who’s the bigot here? Once again, showing true liberal colors… all for the common man as long as someone else handles it. You didn’t even capitalize ‘Mexican’ and ‘Indian’. Pretty insensitive but, you’re an ivory tower elitist so it goes with the territory.
I work with a lot of Indians and have for years. I’m on calls with them every day, conversing on Slack every day. As for the Mexican guys, they work their asses off. Lawns, pouring concrete, working kitchens… doesn’t matter. I kid with them all the time when they come to do the lawn. I sat on the porch and had a beer with them last week.
If that’s I’m left with if I move out of state, I’m in good company. These ethnic groups you mentioned love America and they both vote Republican in overwhelming numbers. Your side lost the Hispanic vote and is staring to lose the Black vote. Your side is becoming angrier by the day because you’re losing. Enjoy your misery.
Fast: It’s amazing how little the elitists know about minority voters , and how conservative they are. I can speak from my own extended family, and they are educated, in case the liberals would say they are just poor and ignorant and do not know any better.
Just do the math on next bull run and not at the bottom of a bear market. Fair?
lol, not my fault you cherry picked the top. But that being said, you still supposedly refuse to buy at the prices the past 3 months so no, that’s not fair.
That’s fair enough.
But this is why Lib is correct when he says it’s not worth managing other people’s money. They don’t have the patience, and the minute a down market hits, they will clobber you. In their mind, market only goes up. Even though you explained to them over and over that investing in disruptive tech is a long-term volatile strategy with enormous swings.
BRT says:
June 26, 2022 at 3:52 pm
Just do the math on next bull run and not at the bottom of a bear market. Fair?
lol, not my fault you cherry picked the top. But that being said, you still supposedly refuse to buy at the prices the past 3 months so no, that’s not fair.
Nice what-aboutism from the 19th century, left. Does it have a point for what Miller said?
Fat little Eddie,
Just admit what you are. Sort of Barry Manilow, instead of coming out of the closet, you take off the hood.
I don’t have a pussycat in the fight, he’ll my beef is the higher taxes and crime wave from the upcoming generation who won’t have a job because both Jerry Springer and Maury Povich quit .
3B
I know immigrants minority voters are conservatives. They are the product of their shithole countries they come from, where dogma, subservience, traditions, obidience, shame rule the day. Just take a look at the muslim and catholic countries they are wrecks. That wreck mindset is what they are bringing here.
Beautiful: The people I reference are all highly educated some born in foreign countries, and some first generation.
You sound like one of those closest Liberal racists, who believe that only white liberal elites views are correct, everyone else is wrong. Liberal/ radical leftist’s, the new state religion.
3B
On the contrary. I’m a classic free-thinker. Hell, going back in the family tree 300+ yrs, there are a very large number of Freemason and very old links to the old Bavarian Illuminati. We were always against superstition, tradition and bs.
Just because they are highly educated does not mean that they are not a backward bunch, if you view it from the European enlightenment/ free thinkers point of view.
You want highly educated foreigners and backwards. Look at all the 9/11 hijackers. Looks at the conservative catholic opus dei cultist in the clown court.
Billie Joe from Green Day renouncing citizenship and moving to UK bc of RvW. He won’t be alone in celeb crowd if he does it
Sanger/Planned Parenthood was 1920, which last I checked was 20th century not 19th…you don’t code dates at work I hope…
But, hey, you’re right anyway. No big deal. Not like many of you wouldn’t be here if they had their way…hard to tell if she disliked the Irish or Italians more, both of whom were targets of her ‘uneducated, unwashed’ zero birth policies…
Guess we can take a pass on the Klansmen as well…I mean their 1920s shit was pretty bad too, but right now they:their roots are pretty analogous with PP. I mean that earlier lynching stuff is all just – what is the scientific term you libs use – oh, yeah, “what-about-ism”.
Re: Billie Joe, is he another confused liberal as to which gender (if there even is gender) can get pregnant? Guess he’s worried that he didn’t hit menopause yet so if he has a ‘whoops’ pregnancy he may not be able to terminate in the US?
Maybe have a discussion with him about hemorrhoids and menstruation. Assuming that’s still allowed.
11:54 sigh. Seriously. It’s more nuanced than that. Flyover country has as many folks who think military service is s crock of shit.
3:37 most people are stupid. Face it.
6:56 re-arranging chairs on the titanic. Nothing more.
Enjoy the ride, because we ‘ve been f-cked as long as i can remember.
Education only goes so far. Things like integrity are elusive.
9:41 fact: rich people can literally live anywhere.
Just because they are highly educated does not mean that they are not a backward bunch, if you view it from the European enlightenment/ free thinkers point of view.
//////////////// this person gets it.
Lmao…
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/this-centurys-best-performing-us-stock-sells-energy-drinks-not-iphones-2019-4-1028114374
Boomer Remover,
When interest rates are rising, I bonds are a smart place to park ‘some’ of your portfolio. Think of it as part of your diversification. I’ve been advocating it to friends for the better of the past nine months.
Y’all file for your concealed carry permits?
Like Ross Perot said….giant sucking sound. It would absolutely take the entire economy down with it. I pray it doesn’t happen because once that ball gets rolling, it’s impossible to stop.
“People are massively underestimating how much of a deflationary force housing is about to become.”
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1541124181370232832?s=21&t=Y-lxLLqe_1I-gYft9xaNWg
3b,
Spent the last 5 days up in Lake George (for the first time). It’s early season, but things started to hop yesterday. There has been no slowing of inflation, no slowing of demand and as predicted late last year, I would not be surprised if the next leg down in the market does not occur until September. We are a family of five. Most dinners averaged $120. The crappiest meal we had was at the fanciest place (tourist trap I suppose) was $180 with tip. Even with fuel at $5.05 a gallon. the amount of traffic we hit on the way home in the early afternoon on the Northway was outrageous. It’s going to take a lot more than where we are at interest rate wise to stave off people’s pant-up demand to spend money this summer. I wouldn’t be surprised if prices continue higher in the next month or two.
Billy Joe Armstrong
Don’t wanna be an American idiot
Don’t want a nation under the new media
And can you hear the sound of hysteria?
The subliminal mind f*ck America
Billie Joe from Green Day renouncing citizenship and moving to UK bc of RvW. He won’t be alone in celeb crowd if he does it
Buh bye.
Why would you pay that kind of money for Texas? Good luck.
Laughable that they thought this was the new cali…aka Silicon Valley.
“I sold in Austin last June 2021 … so much bad now: 1) investor market shattered by interest rates and re taxes without a homestead exemption; 2) tech industry retrenching; 3) household income can’t handle current prices/interest rates; and 4) inventory exploding.”
Lib: I am not surprised, and I agree, it’s going to take higher inflation and higher interest rates to get people to stop spending. There seems to be this attitude of , we have been locked up for 2 years, so screw it we are spending money. Seeing this on the shore too, which was packed this weekend. And restaurants charging all sorts of fees and surcharges, some are actively encouraging people to pay with cash.
The Feds Bullard now recognizing that rates have to rise big and fast, so inflation does not become embedded in the economy; I think they missed the boat on that one.
Now and not unexpectedly we have the relief rally in the market, with the assumption being the Fed won’t have to raise as hard as previously expected. Guess, they are not paying attention to Bullard.
The only thing high rates have done at this point is slow the housing market, even seeing price changes now, but the last 20 percent surge in house prices in a year needs to be blown off; that was pure bubble mania, not demand.
This silly talk about the deflation bogeyman is just nonsense. And horrors of horrors, deflation is not all bad. We need some in this economy to clean up the excess of the last decade.
That was just another sign of the bubble…when Silicon Valley started pouring into Texas because Cali became too expensive.
Fast: I guarantee almost no celebrities will be leaving the US, because of Roe, or any other issue.
How can you have high inflation and falling house prices? It’s impossible. You do you, and ignore what I say if it makes you feel better. The deflationary bogeyman is knocking on the door. How much did it wipe out of the stock and crypto market?
Just remember, if the housing market crashes, no one is going to want to buy it. The conditions will be so bad that no one will want to take on the risk. If that’s not the case, why aren’t you taking out loans to buy bitcoin after it crashed? Don’t tell me it’s different, it’s not.
3b says:
June 27, 2022 at 8:43 am
Lib: I am not surprised, and I agree, it’s going to take higher inflation and higher interest rates to get people to stop spending.
3b,
They always say they’ll leave, take selfies of themselves in faraway places and then a year later, you see them again back in the states as if nothing happened. There! We told you!! I also see two celebrities who’ve donated $1,000,000 apiece to Planned Parenthood. A few years from now, when there’s no more earnings and the lavish lifestyle becomes too rich, they’ll regret the decision.
Billies not going anywhere. There were scores of virtue signaling celebs who said they would leave if trump were elected. None did.
Can I ask – who are these folks who can afford all these $1m houses with 25K taxes?
Income 1: $250K, Income 2: 100K?
Montclair filled with only millionaires?
And to add to my last post….if the housing market does crash, it will mean the economy will be down for years or even a decade or more. And it would prob be the end of the housing market as we know it (the housing market with strong population growth). Housing might never recover till there is strong population growth to support it. If that’s the case, better believe you want to own NYC real estate in that kind of a market. Population will consolidate into centralized locations in big cities. Rural areas/small towns will be dead.
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 9:31 am -AKA Village idiot
Pumps, don’t forget this little saying ” DON”T FIGHT THE FED” . Right now the Fed is trying to curb inflation( not the deflation you keep predicting) , they won’t stop until they do, even if it means 16% interest rates. Open up one of your history books and read what Paul Volker did to stop inflation.
My advice for you is to stop, look and listen because reality is going to slap you in the face. Time will tell, and only if J. Powell has the balls.
““More people flying than ever while it seems like every flight is delayed or canceled” sums up the economy in 2022.”
Jim, deflation is already happening. How much did the stock market and crypto market lose?
How much have commodities lost? Is housing going up? How bout cars?
And unless the FED lowers rates( prices will keep dropping). And just like they overshot with inflation, i bet they will overshoot to the other side with deflation. We will see. Remember, deflation is very hard to stop once it gets going.
Forgot about the bond market…it was destroyed.
Mike S,
Libturd is supposed to know the Montclair demographic better than most of us.
Traditionally NYC commuters I thought. And upper-middle level NY Times people who like to feel good about living amidst “diversity” and everyone on the block having the same “in this house we believe…” signs. Top 3% income rank liberals. They were probably already using their reusable NPR or PBS shopping bags at Whole Foods before the governor mandated it, and are happy that the rest of us are forced to join them.
Your dual income household proposal looks about right to me. One upper middle or lower upper management, one middle management spouse, or media person.
WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.
But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back.
Tick… tick… tick… tick…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-million-voters-switch-040817454.html
Grim – As if you will see some regular Joe or Nancy standing in the checkout line at the local store with a holstered gun at their side. New Jersey is going to be like plenty of other places now, signs up everywhere “Gun free zone”. Sure you can carry but literally no business or public place or space will allow it.
And for those that actually get a permit to carry, the legislature is cooking up new restrictions now, the guy who beat the old Senate President Steve Sweeney – Ed Durr even introduced legislation requiring training classes etc. Then there will be insurance, and well and ammo tracking laws passed quickly including restricting on carrying nearly everywhere. King Murphy said he wants a law passed that you need pre-approval to carry on any other property but your own.
I against illegal guns, the iron pipeline that brings in thousands of illegal firearms into our cities and towns every year. That would require a federal law. Won’t happen anytime soon that is for sure.
We’ll Eddie if you listen to the leaders of the left including Billie Joe, America is supposedly “miserable”. Lawlessness and socialism are the cure.
Meanwhile, you have open borders and millions are fleeing those things. They have a marketing problem with their platform for sure.
Corrupt old Joe was elected as a Trojan horse. Sell himself As moderate and let the radicals and lobbyists run the show one you get in. That will worries one but a lot harder to do twice.
No One says:
June 27, 2022 at 9:58 am
and one job loss away from not making the $800 payment on their luxury suv lease
He’s prob finally going to be correct.
“Busts are usually proportionate to the artificial booms that precede them. We had a financial crisis in 2008 and Great #Recession because the boom the #Fed created with 1% interest rates for about two years was so large. Imagine what follows 0% interest rates for nearly 14 years!”
https://twitter.com/peterschiff/status/1541434760790147072?s=21&t=nhNzipIgXBWr9ZvcRH-ZHQ
Wall Street layoffs likely ahead as two-year hiring boom turns to bust
https://stocks.apple.com/A-P14a7msRrKnX5IUXrQjKw
left,
I see the usual stick has returned – insult person then a verbal diatribe/ rant that points to nothing about topic. Sanger was born in 1879 FYI (a woman in 19th century) in completely bigoted society so why anyone shocked on her thoughts about limiting poor births/poor outcomes for minority women. Imagine a time of abandoned children in streets, no vaccines/health care, no child labor laws, no modern adoption or foster care programs. Nice try but obviously Planned Parenthood and pill were for better outcomes for women. Who really cares about WW1 era eugenic thoughts that she later denounced? Only what-about people on right. Do I need to bring up right-god Regan’s thoughts on African people from 1972? Would that take away everything the right thinks he did?
Liberal NJ is the real America.
That’s why you chose to live in it after all.
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 9:56 am
Jim, deflation is already happening. How much did the stock market and crypto market lose?
Sorry I do not respond quickly to your posts , some of us actually work for a living , just a clue for you. The deflation in the stock market is from inflation…an absolute direct response from( get ready for this) INFLATION and interest rate increases. You can’t be serious can you???
I remember you stated you were all in on buying crypto, just curious how much did you buy? Or was that just BS.
On a check with reality note, closed another multi, and all money is going into CDs, which are now up to 4.30%, looking forward to next rate increase.
Charlie Gasparino just did a piece on Coinbase (coin), saying they are probably going to go into Chapter 11. One of coins biggest shareholders is Cathie Woods, she purchased this stock in the $300 area… it is now $56. Her innovative ways may just burry her. This could possibly the nail in the coffin for Woods. Just imagine how much Pumps bought of this. It was a steal all this year, I will bet he bought 0. Typical for him.
Ps. I also bought Coin , but at a much lower price, painfully $166 x 100 shares.
File under the FWIW category. I normally have about 30 recent views on my Linked-In profile, most of which are blocked from my viewing. I think the vast majority of the traffic is related to recruiters performing database searches, and because of my background, I end up getting unsolicited hits.
Well, I hadn’t checked my profile in about a month, and I was shocked to see the number drop to 11. I don’t think I have ever seen it that low……… draw your own conclusions….
chi,
I am not seeing this. Think it is more about you not checking profile often. I can assure you that recruiters look for active people with updated profiles bc better chance you are looking for change. I update my profile slightly every day on all job sites. Bigger problem I see is that companies turning lots of roles into contract bc desperate to get someone at their rate. I have seen some improvements. Citi and MS were both culprits of low rate strategy. Seeing way more over $100/hr than any time in last 5 years. Still not best rate as inflation eating it away. If you want a contract role, the world is your oyster. WS is absolutely desperate for support and delivery roles, maybe not M&A or mortgage FO
Jim, I don’t know wtf you are talking about going all in with crypto, but you need to stfu with your bs talking down position. You got a big mouth after the fact…why don’t you tell us some plays tough guy. Just here to bash people on anything they didn’t get correct? Go f’k yourself you mental midget. Know your type well…all talk, no action.
Says the guy who claims he is retired in his 70s. Stfu, you are full of chit.
“Sorry I do not respond quickly to your posts , some of us actually work for a living , just a clue for you.”
Tell me you don’t understand wtf you are talking about without saying it. You bring nothing of value to this blog.
“The deflation in the stock market is from inflation…an absolute direct response from( get ready for this) INFLATION and interest rate increases. You can’t be serious can you???”
As for Cathie…enough said. Money talks, bs walks. You don’t even understand her investment thesis or style. Keep attacking her, and in time you are going to look stupid. It’s easy to attack anyone in a market crash. You will never be on her level, so save the bs.
“Say what you want about Cathie Wood and some of the companies I personally don’t like, but show me someone who’s getting more inflows than her right now? Now that’s impressive to me.”
“It’s easy to attack anyone in a market crash”
Its also easy to talk up any old coffin-dodger when the market is red-hot due to socialist bailouts.
Her fund is on par with Berkshire Hathaway since her inception in 2014….and this is after taking a severe beating these past two years…just saying. Just because she is not a value investor doesn’t make her an idiot.
Bystander says:
June 27, 2022 at 5:43 pm
“It’s easy to attack anyone in a market crash”
Its also easy to talk up any old coffin-dodger when the market is red-hot due to socialist bailouts
https://bit.ly/3OJU0YX
Now thatsa spicy meataball!
For all the Fast Idiots on this group, this article sums Red vs. Blue States nicely.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/06/red-and-blue-state-divide-is-growing-michael-podhorzer-newsletter/661377/
Tl;dr
“But the big story remains that blue states are benefiting more as the nation transitions into a high-productivity, 21st-century information economy, and red states (apart from their major metropolitan centers participating in that economy) are suffering as the powerhouse industries of the 20th century—agriculture, manufacturing, and fossil-fuel extraction—decline. “
… “The gross domestic product per person and the median household income are now both more than 25 percent greater in the blue section than in the red, according to Podhorzer’s calculations. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. “
all talk, no action and idiot should be branded on your forehead
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Jim, I don’t know wtf you are talking about going all in with crypto, but you need to stfu with your bs talking down position. You got a big mouth after the fact…why don’t you tell us some plays tough guy. Just here to bash people on anything they didn’t get correct? Go f’k yourself you mental midget. Know your type well…all talk, no action.
“Blue states are benefiting more as the nation transitions into a high-productivity, 21st-century information economy”
For example. Right here in NJ (SFW):
https://youtu.be/BZEbT_k0OnY
“Yeah. People forget that ARKK are contrarians. A lot of people came to know them because of Tesla, but remember that for many years they were ridiculized for believing in TSLA. Basically I’m saying they’re used to taking the heat.”
Baby want a cookie? Keep hating…means i’m doing something right.
PumpkinFace says:
June 27, 2022 at 6:07 pm
all talk, no action and idiot should be branded on your forehead
If you are still in the camp of “inflation is out of control and only going higher how can you explain:
1. 5yr breakeven rate peaking in March (3.5) and it now at 2.82
2. All the metals breaking down
3. Cmdty like Cotton breaking down
4. FF futs now pricing cuts in 2023
https://twitter.com/bullandbaird/status/1541435769579048962?s=21&t=Pn3wfrnEG7z4XtPuQCSMyw
all of your terrible stock predictions are screaming buys right now, yes? you can’t lose by buying now, yes? and yet you’ve bought nothing… saying you want it to go lower. you’re an idiot… simple as that, aka an idiot, blood in the streets idiot
$ARKK took in $370m last week (Top 1% among all ETFs) has seen inflows 8 out of last 11 weeks, YTD total now up to $1.9b (top 3% among ETFs). Had a big bounce in price up, up 18% yet is STILL down 57% on year.
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1541386869623103493?s=21&t=Pn3wfrnEG7z4XtPuQCSMyw
The loudest critics of ARKK were all telling investors to buy Oil and Bank stocks over the past few months. Reversions to the Mean work in both directions. People like a bargain when they see it in ARKK, particularly if they have 5+ years ahead of them invested in the market.
There are some really well known people that are the loudest critics of ARK. Their safest investments have been knee-capped lately. Shooting off one’s mouth has humbling consequences. ARK is not competing with Berkshire, $VOO or $VTI. It’s a 5-10% blindspot portfolio enhancement
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Jim, I don’t know wtf you are talking about going all in with crypto, but you need to stfu with your bs talking down position. You got a big mouth after the fact…why don’t you tell us some plays tough guy. Just here to bash people on anything they didn’t get correct? Go f’k yourself you mental midget. Know your type well…all talk, no action.
Just follow my game plan Pumpkin ( Or should I just say Village Idiot) I have sold 3 Multi’s at the absolute height of the market, and I have put $500,000 into cd’s and bonds ranging from 2.2 % to 5%, by the end of the year I will double that amount, except I am going with the fed flow and will be expecting 2-3% more by year end.
You are completely lost if you do not know what raising interest rates do to the stock market, the answer is not deflation it is called preserving capital and people suck out their dollars. You are one of the best Trolls I have ever seen , but still an a-hole. Just sayin.
Did someone say something? Didn’t think so.
Go buy oil…
PumpkinFace says:
June 27, 2022 at 6:51 pm
all of your terrible stock predictions are screaming buys right now, yes? you can’t lose by buying now, yes? and yet you’ve bought nothing… saying you want it to go lower. you’re an idiot… simple as that, aka an idiot, blood in the streets idiot
Hey if you call someone an idiot enough do you think it will result in them becoming an idiot? Asking for a friend.
so how much did you buy? still nothing?
Biggest hypocrites in the game. Live here for a reason, but bash it all day long. And when it’s finally time to stop making money, they leave on their bill because they are nothing more than complaining leeches who only care about themselves. They didn’t raise their family in Florida, but quick to bash people for raising their family in blue states now that they are retired in Florida.
Very Stable Genius says:
June 27, 2022 at 1:18 pm
Liberal NJ is the real America.
That’s why you chose to live in it after all.
Truth hurts. Blue state economies put the money in your pocket. They are the only reason the USA is not some third world nation.
“The gross domestic product per person and the median household income are now both more than 25 percent greater in the blue section than in the red, according to Podhorzer’s calculations. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. “
I’ll buy when I want to buy. Cool? I’m waiting to see if more pain comes, maybe I will win, maybe I will lose by waiting. If you buy now, and hold long-term almost impossible to lose.
PumpkinFace says:
June 27, 2022 at 7:11 pm
so how much did you buy? still nothing?
https://ifunny.co/picture/a-homeless-woman-came-up-to-me-outside-our-hq-vAEWnjBN9?s=cl
Libturd says:
June 27, 2022 at 7:25 pm
Perfect and excellent. Keep up the good work Stu.
Lib,
Who’s fault is that? Who puts all their money into a single investment, esp a volatile one? If you need that money, you shouldn’t be investing in high growth. High growth is for money you don’t need and can wait to collect. It’s money that can be lost. It’s the hot sauce to your entire portfolio, not your protein.
Lol he still thinks she’s up
Hot sauce, canary, buy blood, disruptive, none of us understand her genius… but he does. Logic! simple as that
It’s like when all of the Pontiac Fieros were igniting. As CEO of GM, Pumps would be making statements like, “Do you know how valuable that will make the Fiero for collecting?” He’d continue, “Sales are literally booming!”
I get it, it’s the cool thing to do. I see it everywhere. People love to bash her. It’s been going on forever. They hate her. You know why? She proves them wrong.
She started a fund with her own hard earned money because none if the “boys” on wall st thought her fund would be successful. Who’s laughing now? Of course, while the sector she invests in gets beat the chit, they all love to gang up on her and attack her to get back some of the ego they lost when she proved them wrong. F’ing great. I love how much anger comes from her success. I hope the negative energy gets body slammed again.
Imagine all the wall st wolves trying to take you out, but can’t. F’ing love to see it, esp by a woman. Lol
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 9:22 pm
She started a fund with her own hard earned money because none if the “boys” on wall st thought her fund would be successful. Who’s laughing now?
I am really confused, Cathie Woods lost her clients billions of dollars and you think that is successful ???!! Your a Teacher ?? Give her a participation trophy.
Pumpkin you should not share whatever drugs you are doing , although I don’t partake it sure makes you stupid. Success is measured by how much $$$$ you make not how much you lose. She will be gone within two years.
Jim, you are an idiot. I’m just the messenger….
Guy is on point..
“Crypto and the apes joining forces was inevitable IMO, I somewhat called it: twitter.com/EricBalchunas/…”
https://twitter.com/ericbalchunas/status/1541567453972635648?s=21&t=Pn3wfrnEG7z4XtPuQCSMyw
The Great Pumpkin says:
June 27, 2022 at 9:57 pm
Jim, you are an idiot. I’m just the messenger….
That’s better than being Fcking asshole and that is a consensus here , ironically the vote was taken and there was only one person who disagreed…… somebody called a Village Idiot. You Win!
12/14/80 – enjoy! Grateful Dead:
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