Jobs Day!

From Yahoo Finance:

May jobs report expected to show more signs of cooling labor market

The May jobs report is expected to show further signs of cooling in the labor market.

The monthly report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 185,000 in May while the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.9% from the previous month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In April, the US economy added 175,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at compared to the previous month, according to data from Bloomberg:

  • Nonfarm payrolls: +185,000 vs. +175,000 previously
  • Unemployment rate: 3.9% vs. 3.9% previously
  • Average hourly earnings, month over month: +0.3% vs. +0.2% previously
  • Average hourly earnings, year over year: +3.9% vs. +3.9% previously
  • Average weekly hours worked: 34.3 vs. 34.3 previously

The report comes as the stock market has hit record highs amid a slew of softer-than-expected economic data, which increased investor confidence that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as of September. Entering Friday’s print, markets are pricing in a 67% chance the Fed cuts rates in September, up from a roughly 50% chance seen a week ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 103 Comments

First to fall

From the Daily Mail:

The cities where house prices are set to DROP – and most are in the south

The cost of real estate only continues to inch upwards in states like New York and Connecticut. However, a new report from financial analytics company CoreLogic indicates that several metro areas, mostly in the South, are likely to see a decline.

Despite skyrocketing home prices in cities like Miami and West Palm beach, two metros in the Sunshine State are expected to see a drop: the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville region and the Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach region.

In each city, CoreLogic analysists predict over a 70 percent chance of a price drop by spring 2025, classifying the risk level as ‘very high.’

This goes for other metropolitan areas as well. Just over the border, Georgia’s  Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell region is expected to see a drop, as well as the Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin metro in nearby South Carolina.

These turning tides aren’t limited to the South, either; on the opposite coast, Spokane and the greater Spokane Valley in Washington are due for a price decrease.

Nationwide, CoreLogic’s analysts expect the growth in year-over-year home prices to slow a bit into 2025.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 274 Comments

Don’t leave just yet

From InsiderNJ:

Stay NJ Task Force Releases Report Recommending Changes to Simplify and Improve New Jersey’s Property Tax Relief Programs

Today, the Stay NJ Task Force released its report providing recommendations for the State to implement the new Stay NJ program while simplifying and aligning its property tax relief programs – Stay NJ, ANCHOR, and Senior Freeze – with the goal to make the application process more accessible for New Jersey taxpayers. 

The report recommends for the State to create one streamlined application that would be used to determine a taxpayer’s eligibility for all three programs simultaneously. Each program currently has its own application, though some taxpayers may be eligible for multiple programs. 

The Task Force recommends for the new streamlined application to be available no later than February 1, 2025. This expedited timeline would ensure the application is ready in time for the start of what would be the next Senior Freeze application season. This recommendation also led the Task Force to recommend that legislation is enacted at least 90 days before the application becomes available.

The recommendations also include ensuring the calendar year for benefit determination for all programs will be based on the year immediately preceding the application year – with the exception of the Senior Freeze Program for first time applicants – addressing a common source of confusion for some taxpayers, as well as aligning the way income is calculated across all three programs.

The report was approved unanimously by the six members of the Task Force, which met seven times since December 2023. 

The goal of the initial Stay NJ law is to deliver a streamlined annual property tax benefit that shall amount to 50 percent of the property tax bill on a principal residence for senior homeowners with an annual gross income under $500,000. The Task Force was charged with reviewing all of the existing property tax relief programs and presenting a report to the Governor and the Legislature with recommendations on how to achieve that goal.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 37 Comments

Pending sales post biggest drop in 3 years

From CNBC:

Pending home sales in April slump to lowest level since the start of the pandemic

Signed sales contracts on existing homes dropped 7.7% in April compared to March, the slowest pace since April 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors.

These so-called pending sales are a forward-looking indicator of closed sales one to two months later. Pending sales were 7.4% lower than in April of last year.

Sales were expected to be flat compared to March.

Since the count is based on signed contracts, it shows how buyers are reacting to mortgage rates in real time. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage ended March at around 6.9% and then took off, hitting 7.5% by the end of April, according to Mortgage News Daily.

With home prices still climbing and supply very low, leading to increased competition, that jump in rates had a huge effect on sales.

“The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR. “But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.”

Sales were down in every region of the country, but they fell hardest in the Midwest and West. The former has some of the most affordable markets in the nation, and the latter has some of the most expensive.

Perhaps in reaction to the slow sales pace in April, the share of sellers cutting prices in May hit 6.4%, the highest level since 2022, according to a new report from Redfin. The median asking price also dropped for the first time in six months.

Active inventory in April was 30% higher than in April 2023, according to Realtor.com, which suggests the summer market could be more active than last year.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

Until AI takes over

From the APP:

College pays off in NJ: 7th highest median earnings for graduates

If you’re graduating from a New Jersey college, you might be in great shape.

According to a new study, the Garden State ranks in the top 10 of the highest median earnings.

The study, conducted by Teach Simple, uses data from the U.S. Department of Education to analyze institutions in each state based on the median earnings of individuals who began college 10 years ago to reveal the ranking. The study also looked at average annual cost that a student who receives federal financial aid will pay to cover expenses (e.g. tuition and living expenses) to attend a school, and the average graduation rate within eight years of entering the school. 

New Jersey ranks seventh, with an average of each institution’s median earnings at $57,381. It also says the average annual cost of NJ schools is $15,473 and the graduation rate is about 50 percent.

The top five states are Massachusetts ($65,319), Rhode Island ($64,818), Connecticut ($64,720), Maryland ($60,286) and Washington, D.C. ($59,364). California came in at No. 6 ($58,675), with Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Illinois rounding out the top 10.

The five states with the lowest pay are New Mexico ($38,417), Mississippi ($39,235), Arkansas ($41,481), Kentucky ($42,000) and North Dakota ($43,000).

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 119 Comments

PSA: Home prices and mortgage rates are not correlated

From CNN:

US home prices hit another record high in March

US home prices reached a record high in March, reflecting the housing market’s persistent affordability crisis.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, a measure of home prices across the country, jumped 6.5% in March from a year earlier to a record high. It is the sixth time the index has reached a new record high over the past year.

The report showed that there’s strong demand for housing in urban population centers such as San Diego, New York, Cleveland and Los Angeles. The 20-city index rose in March at a slightly faster pace than in February.

“This month’s report boasts another all-time high,” said Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets, at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “We’ve witnessed records repeatedly break in both stock and housing markets over the past year.”

In addition to unrelentingly high home prices, the housing market is also grappling with a chronic lack of homes on the market and elevated mortgage rates. Put together, it has resulted in a tough housing market, especially first-time buyers.

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell below 7% last week, after rates began to surge in mid-April. Still, mortgage rates are higher than anything seen in the decade leading up to 2022. Economists don’t expect mortgage rates to decline meaningfully this year and could very well remain above 6%.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 134 Comments

Will builders pull back?

From CNBC:

Sales of newly built homes tank in April, as prices and interest rates rise

Sales of newly built homes dropped 4.7% in April compared with March, and fell a larger 7.7% from the prior year, the U.S. Census said Thursday.

March sales were also revised significantly lower.

Higher mortgage rates are clearly hampering sales. The monthly reading is based on signed contracts, so it reflects people shopping during the month and inking deals based on current rates.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage was in the high 6% range at the end of March, but then shot up to 7.5% during April, cutting into affordability.

Adding to that, the median price of a new home sold in April was $433,500, 4% higher than it was in April 2023. Some of that is due to the mix of homes selling, which is mostly on the higher end of the market. Those buyers are not as influenced by mortgage rates, as they often use all cash.

Builders say they cannot lower prices due to high costs for land, labor and materials. The big production builders have been buying down mortgage rates to help boost sales, but they are able to do that because of their size. D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers reported strong earnings in their latest quarters, beating expectations and citing growing demand due to low supply in the resale market.

“For all the happy talk from the big builders (who are taking market share), the entire new build industry is selling new homes at a pace below the 5 yr average,” noted Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group and a CNBC contributor.

In the first quarter of 2024, 38% of a median household income nationally was needed to make the mortgage payment on a median-priced new single-family home, according to a new index launched Thursday by the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo. Low-income families, which it defines as those earning just 50% of the area’s median income, would have to spend 77% of their earnings to pay for the same new home. 

Prices continue to rise for both new and existing homes due to a lack of supply. There is very little available for sale on the lower end of the resale market. While the number of newly built homes continues to rise, up 12% year over year, new homes come at a price premium and are out of range for lower-income buyers.

“With a nationwide shortage of roughly 1.5 million homes, the lack of housing units is the primary cause of growing housing affordability challenges,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist. “Policymakers at all levels of government need to enact policy changes that will allow builders to construct more homes, such as speeding up permit approval times, providing resources for skilled labor training and fixing building material supply chains.” 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Development | 37 Comments

New high for Hudson

From NJ.com:

N.J. home got $350K over asking, making it the most expensive sale in its county this year

Five days is all it took for this Hoboken brownstone to go under contract for $350,000 more than its asking price.

The six bedroom, four full and one half bathroom home was listed March 7 for $3.3 million. It closed last month for $3.65 million.

“It was insane,” said Kaja Bolton of Christie’s International Real Estate, the listing agent. “I think we had 70 groups come through. That’s more like suburb kind of activity. But right now there’s not a lot on the market so we get a lot more people. Normally, 40 groups would be amazing.”

The 4,000 square foot single family home on tree-lined Garden Street, a premiere area in Hoboken, is the highest-priced single family home to sell in Hudson County this year.

The previous highest sale was of a four bedroom, four bathroom Jersey City home that closed on March 12 for $3.25 million.

The home got eight offers.

Jim Ristagno, of Coldwell Banker Realty, was the agent for the winning bidder.

“This was a unique property because it’s 21 feet wide,” he said. “For Hoboken terms that is huge — and it’s a 4,000 square foot home.”

Homes in Hoboken typically range from 12.5 feet to 24 feet wide. “Getting to 20 feet wide is really rare,” Ristagno said.

The home also has 11-foot ceilings on the parlor level, original trim and it sits on a large 21 foot by 100 foot lot, giving it a larger backyard.

Posted in Gold Coast, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 9 Comments

The next tech hotspot?

From the NY Post:

Time to buy in ‘Quantum Valley’? Upstate New York home prices are set to skyrocket as Big Tech moves in

Will the San Francisco Bay Area tech hub known as Silicon Valley soon be eclipsed by the Hudson Valley?

The sleepy, bucolic area north of New York City, known for its farmhouses, rural ambiance, and spectacular views of the Hudson River, is poised to become the next big tech area if Nvidia co-founder Curtis Priem has his way.

“We’ve renamed Hudson Valley as Quantum Valley,” the multimillionaire told the Wall Street Journal. “It’s up to New York whether they want to become Silicon State—not just a valley.”

While the co-founder of one of the world’s largest microchip companies cashed out long before the market cap topped $2 trillion, he’s not hurting for money. He is reportedly donating $75 million to his alma mater, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, slightly north of Albany, so the school can buy an IBM-made quantum computing system. It would be the first of its kind on any campus in the world.

Priem told the Journal he hopes this gift will make the Hudson Valley the epicenter of quantum computing research, attracting the kind of talent that started billion-dollar disruptors such as Google, Microsoft, and Apple.

“At first, prices may rise as demand outpaces supply, but ultimately, developers will increase supply if that is the case,” he says. “We’ve seen similar success up in Malta, NY, about 40 minutes north, with the microchip factories. That development took place mostly on vacant land. A similar revival within a city itself, instead of farmland, would certainly be interesting to witness and be a part of. Troy would be a great fit.”

Cahill notes there are a lot of well-built structures still standing in Troy that were part of the manufacturing boom in the early 20th century that could be repurposed for condos. There is also a lot of vacant land around Troy, something getting increasingly more difficult to find in large metropolises.

Local real estate agent Harriet Norris, of Douglas Elliman, agrees that values in the area might not stay affordable for long.

“Property values in the area would certainly rise with the need for more housing and commercial space,” she says. “And good jobs in this new technology sector would bring growth and expansion to all sectors of the economy in Hudson Valley and upstate region. I think it’s good news all around.”

Cahill notes that the area has plenty of technology and engineering students because of the two local colleges, RPI and Union. But those students normally take their brain power elsewhere—to New York City, Boston, or Silicon Valley—once they graduate.

“If we could keep the talent here because these new computers are housed here in Troy, there is plenty of room for housing,” he says.

“If a high-tech corridor develops and companies create more high-paying jobs in the region, it could push home prices higher,” says Hale. “Already, relative affordability in the Albany-Schenectedy-Troy metro area, where the median home listing is priced at $449,900, according to Realtor.com, just above the national median of $430,000, makes the area attractive. The typical home listing price has risen 10.3% from one year ago in the area while Realtor.com reported that nationwide home prices were flat in April 2024.”

The upsides of the area include lots of leafy green preservations, a short commute to the capital city of Albany, many local highways, an international airport, and proximity not only to New York City but also to Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, North Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 45 Comments

April sales dip

From Reuters:

US home sales post second straight monthly drop; house prices accelerate

U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly fell in April as higher mortgage rates and house prices weighed on demand, dealing another setback to the housing market.

Though the report from the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday showed inventory increasing last month to a 2-1/2-year high entry-level homes remained scarce, accounting for the second straight monthly decline in sales.

The housing market has taken a step back after residential investment, which includes homebuilding, grew at its fastest pace in more than three years in the first quarter amid a resurgence in mortgage rates.

“Supply constraints are doing as much to hold back sales as demand-side weakness,” said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Existing home sales will probably tread water, or perhaps even edge down a bit further, over the next few months.”

Home sales slipped 1.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.14 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would rise to a rate of 4.21 million units. Home resales are counted at the closing of a contract.

April sales likely reflect contracts signed in the prior two months when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was hovering just below 7%.

Sales fell in all four regions. The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has struggled to break back below 7% after surging to more than a five-month high of 7.22% in early May, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 94 Comments

How much higher?

From Yahoo Finance:

U.S. Home Prices Reach Record High Despite Slow Market

Amid a broader market slowdown, U.S. home prices reached a historic peak in April, with the median sale price rising to $433,558, a 6.2% increase from the previous year, according to data issued by Redfin.

The rise in home prices suggests a lack of housing inventory coupled with the reluctance of homeowners to list their properties. Even as new listings slightly increased, they remained about 20% below pre-pandemic levels, Redfin said, leaving potential buyers grappling with high prices and the additional challenge of rising mortgage rates, which continue to hover near a two-decade high.

“It’s not all bad news for homebuyers,” Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao noted in the report. “Mortgage rates are already inching lower in response to this week’s inflation report, which signaled that the Fed may cut interest rates this summer — a possibility that just weeks ago many thought was off the table.”

The demand and constrained supply continue to drive the U.S. housing market to a landscape where even a slow trend does not deter the ascent of home prices.

In regions like San Jose, California and Rochester, New York, a competitive fervor remains, with a high portion of homes selling above the asking price. In April, 75.8% of homes sold in San Jose fetched more than their listed price, indicating a market that is defying broader slowdowns.

The trend is similar in Rochester, where 72.8% of homes sold above asking.

April saw a modest increase in new listings, rising 1.7% month-over-month and marking a 10.8% increase year-over-year; yet the figures still trail behind pre-pandemic levels. The reluctance to list is often attributed to homeowners being “locked in” by low mortgage rates obtained during the pandemic, disincentivizing them from selling in a higher rate environment.

Active listings, which reflect the total number of homes available for sale, also suggest that tension exists between supply and demand. While they increased by 0.3% from March to April and were up 7.5% from April last year, the total count remains markedly below the levels seen before the pandemic.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 61 Comments

What would you trade?

From the Record:

What would you sacrifice to afford a home? A report shows the differences between generations

Generations often have differing perspectives on politics, work culture and family dynamics, so it might not come as a surprise that the real estate experiences of different generations vary, too.

While purchasing a home with a domestic partner or spouse is still the most common way (59%) that individuals across all generations are buying a home, millennials — who make up the majority of today’s homebuyers — are more likely than older generations to purchase a home in other ways, whether it be by themselves or with a friend or relative, according to Bankrate’s recent Homebuying Trends Survey.

“Our findings show a shift in how generations have purchased their homes. More millennials have opted for solo home purchases or co-buying with friends or family compared to their older counterparts,” said Alex Gailey, lead data reporter at Bankrate. “That’s likely due to a shift in generational norms. Younger Americans are partnering or marrying later today than in prior generations, but many still want to become homeowners.”

In the survey, 42% of millennials (ages 28-43) said they have purchased a home alone. This is compared to the 34% of Generation Xers (ages 44-59) and 22% of baby boomers (ages 60-78) who said they purchased a home alone.

When it comes to purchasing a home with friends, 10% of millennials said they’ve bought a house this way compared to just 3% of Gen Xers and 1% of baby boomers. And, 10% of millennials also said they have purchased a home with relatives, while only 5% of Gen Xers and 2% of baby boomers said they have done so.

In order to find more affordable housing, millennials are also willing to sacrifice more than their older counterparts, according to the survey. While 49% of Gen Xers and 62% of baby boomers are most willing to downsize their living space compared to other factors like moving out of state or buying a fixer upper, millennials are equally as likely (33%) to take any of these steps to find affordable housing.

Millennials are also more likely to consider moving farther from friends and family (29%), moving to a less desirable area (27%), taking on roommates or living with family members (24%) and moving farther from work (19%) than older generations are.

“Younger generations’ willingness to make more sacrifices amid ongoing affordability issues is a result of being at a point in their lives where they are ready to make the jump from renting to owning,” the report says. “On the other hand, older homebuyers are more likely to be repeat homebuyers who are driven by different motivations.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 48 Comments

Price Reduced! Jeter’s House!

From NJ.com:

Derek Jeter’s Greenwood Lake ‘castle’ back on the market at drastically reduced price

Known locally as “the castle” on Greenwood Lake, Derek Jeter’s longtime lake house near the New York-New Jersey border is back on the market at a drastically reduced price.

Listed last week for $6.3 million, the home was previously marketed at nearly $15 million. The property, dating to 1903, has been linked to Jeter’s family for more than 70 years.

The former New York Yankees shortstop took ownership of the property in the early 2000s from the Tiedemann family trust. The existing home had been partitioned into apartments and was in a state of disrepair.

The property was originally built by a New York City doctor, Rudolph Gudewill, for his wife in 1903. Jeter’s grandfather, William Connors, lived on the property after he was adopted by John and Julia Tiedemann, who bought the site in 1952.

A transformation under Jeter’s ownership developed the three-parcel estate with a main house, a guest house, a pool house and a boat house. The grounds hold an infinity pool, intricately manicured gardens and a lagoon and are bordered by 6-foot-high stone walls. Located on the western side of Greenwood Lake, the roughly 4-acre site also includes 700 feet of lakefront.

The stone home at 14 Lake Shore Road in the Town of Warwick, N.Y., is defined by two turrets that give it its castle nickname. There are also two conference rooms, six bedrooms, 13 bathrooms and five kitchens. Four are indoors. One is outdoors and comes with a wood-burning fireplace, says an online listing from Wright Bros. Real Estate Inc. The annual property taxes are roughly $75,000, the listing says.

Jeter, who grew up in Kalamazoo, Mich., was born in Pequannock at Chilton Memorial Hospital. For a short time after, he lived in North Arlington.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced | 20 Comments

Nothing is cheap anymore

From MarketWatch:

Rents just surged 10% in this affordable housing market. It was ‘bound to happen,’ one economist says.

Renters are running away from high rents in expensive cities and moving to more affordable ones — but that’s pushing up rents as much as 10% in some major metropolitan areas, according to a new report by Redfin.

In a monthly market report, the residential real-estate brokerage RDFN, -1.57% found that in April, asking rents across 33 major metro areas rose 1.1% from a year ago, which was the first such increase in more than a year. The median U.S. asking rent was $1,648 in April.

The biggest rent increases were seen in markets in the Midwest, the report found, while the biggest declines were in the Sun Belt and in Seattle.

“Rents are only up 1% nationally, and that’s mostly because less affordable rental markets are getting even more expensive, which is bound to happen as people start to move to more affordable metros from expensive ones,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told MarketWatch.

Higher rents are an additional blow to many aspiring homeowners who currently rent a home. Elevated mortgage rates and high home prices have made it so unaffordable to buy a house that in February, Realtor.com said that it was cheaper to rent than to own in all of America’s top 50 metro areas.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 30 Comments

First to fall?

From Mansion Global:

Florida and Texas Show Signs of Home Prices Falling

Gary and Karen Steppe listed a condo in Indialantic, Fla., in February for $294,900. They expected the two-bedroom vacation home, which is in an oceanside town near Melbourne Beach, to sell quickly. But the couple initially received no bids. 

One reason: A rising number of homeowners in the area were also looking to sell. With more properties on the market, “buyers didn’t have that fear of missing out like they did when the inventory was less,” Gary Steppe said. 

The Steppes cut the price, then accepted an offer in April for about $275,000. “I wish I had…sold it two years ago,” when similar condos were selling for higher prices, he said.

In most of the U.S., the limited number of homes for sale is pushing prices back toward record highs. Sale prices for single-family existing homes rose in 93% of U.S. metro areas during the first quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. The median single-family existing-home price grew 5% from a year ago to $389,400.

Yet the market is cooling and prices have started falling in some cities in Florida and Texas, where robust home-building activity in recent years has helped boost the number of homes for sale. The two states accounted for more than a quarter of all single-family residential building permits every year from 2019 to 2023, according to Census Bureau data.

In 10 Texas and Florida metro areas, the inventory of homes for sale in April exceeded typical prepandemic levels for this time of year, according to Realtor.com. In eight of those markets, pending sales in April fell from a year earlier.

In Florida and Texas, “we’re starting to get into a buyer’s market,” said Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Research & Consulting. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 80 Comments