Despite recession, Upper Haughtyville is most expensive

From Newsroom New Jersey:

New Jersey has most expensive ZIP code in country

Beverly Hills 90210? Forget about it.

Honolulu? The leafy suburbs of Westchester County and Connecticut? Great places to live, and hardly cheap, but they lack the distinction of ZIP code 07620, where the median asking price of a home is $4.14 million.

Sure, that’s a lot, but if you move in, your neighbors will include sports superstar Patrick Ewing, comic Chris Rock, and music mogul Sean Combs, as well as Stevie Wonder and Mary J. Blige.

It’s the most expensive ZIP code in the country, and it’s in New Jersey, nbcnewyork.com reports.

The tiny Bergen County community of Alpine tops Forbes’ annual list of America’s 100 priciest ZIP codes. But not even Alpine is immune to the effects of the economic downturn, Forbes.com reports.

That steep median asking price is down a whopping 23 percent from last year, making real estate in Alpine a steal if you have a few million to spend.

Farther down the list of the top 100 are several other New Jersey ZIP codes. New Vernon places 57th; Mantoloking is 76th; Far Hills, 84th and Saddle River, 85th.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 254 Comments

Recession Hits Upper Haughtyville

From the Record:

Wall St. fallout hits home

Juliette Kim sees the state of the economy in the drop in customers at her Ridgewood dry cleaning business.

A few doors down, Rick Breitstein sees it in the plummeting sales of his pricey cheeses, now so low that he expects to close up shop in October.

Business at Mufid Basna’s store, Joe’s Haircutting, is down 20 percent but would be even worse without the surge in jobless residents coming to spruce themselves up for interviews.

“If you don’t have a job, you have to look for one,” Basna said on a recent afternoon, and chuckled, “If you don’t have a haircut, no one will hire you.”

Last September, the collapse of Lehman Brothers started the cascade of Wall Street failures that would trigger heavy job losses and plunge us deeper into the worst recession in decades. A year later, the fallout is felt strongly in Ridgewood, where an estimated one in six workers are employed in financial services, where two dozen empty storefronts now dot a newly struggling downtown, and where growing evidence of an economic turnaround is still only a rumor.

Breitstein, owner of The Cheese Shop of Ridgewood, said his clientele, which heavily numbers bankers, bond traders, stockbrokers and other Wall Street workers, is down so much that he has told his landlord he will close in October.

He estimates his revenue has fallen 40 percent in the last two years. Some days, he says, he makes no more than $200.

And it’s not just the jobless who aren’t spending, Breitstein said. He recalled a still-employed senior JP Morgan executive, a regular at the store who he used to throw a party for 30 on July 4. This year he invited just three friends.

Nearby on East Ridgewood Avenue, the town’s main retail strip, Kim, owner of Ridgewood Cleaners, said business is 30 percent lower than two years ago.

“Some customers don’t come at all,” and some have reduced their trips, she said. “People try to wear clothes more times.”

Kim’s shop is next door to the shuttered Dolce Café, one of at least half a dozen Ridgewood restaurants and cafés that have closed since the recession began. Another one, L’Aragosta, carried the hopes of South Jersey restaurateur Giancarlo Presta.

He opened the Italian eatery in June 2008, attracted by the village’s affluence. The first six months were busy, he said, but then — as the recession kicked in — business fell off, and he closed in May.

“A lot of the customers worked on Wall Street,” he said. “The first thing they cut out is going to eat. They were spending less. I used to ask them, and they said they are cooking at home.”

The sweeping job cuts have helped push down New York-area house prices by 12 percent since June 2008, and more elsewhere. In Bergen County, the median home price has fallen from $515,000 to $430,000, or about 17 percent, according to figures from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service. Prices are down about 10 percent in Passaic County, to an average of $333,634, the figures show.

The median sale price in Ridgewood fell from $685,000 in the first five months of 2008 to $593,200 in the same period this year, a decline of 13 percent. The number of houses sold fell from 71 in the 2008 period to less than half that a year later. And other data show how much the village has been hit by the recession.

Eighteen village residents filed for bankruptcy from January to August of this year, more than double in the same period in 2008, according to Westlaw, the legal data company. Eight properties have gone to foreclosure sale in the first nine months of this year — two more than in all of 2008 and two less than in 2007 — and the number is expected to continue going up.

In May, the Citizens Community Bank — one of 20 in the village — became North Jersey’s first to close in the recession.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 211 Comments

Weekend Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labelled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 190 Comments

Mortgage and other loan delinquencies rising

From Reuters:

U.S. mortgage delinquencies up in July: Equifax

Rising unemployment continues to make more Americans miss their mortgage payments, a negative sign for the U.S. housing market that has lately enjoyed strong data on sales, prices and mortgage applications.

Among U.S. homeowners with mortgages, a record 7.32 percent were at least 30 days late on payments in July, up from about 4.5 percent a year earlier and 7.23 percent in June, according to monthly data from the Equifax credit bureau.

The rate of subprime mortgage delinquencies rose to 39.48 percent from 39.25 a month earlier, though it is still below levels reached earlier this year, according to the data obtained exclusively by Reuters.

Mortgage delinquencies are driven by three factors, two of which appear to be solved or at least improving, said Dann Adams, president of U.S. Information Systems for Equifax.

First, loose underwriting standards are largely a thing of the past, now that lenders demand higher credit scores and are more careful to verify income. Second, home prices are stabilizing, or even rising, in some U.S. markets, which puts less pressure on home owners.

But the third factor, unemployment, remains a worry.

“Even if it’s in the 200,000 to 400,000 (job losses) a month range, it will be a driver of these delinquency rates,” Adams said. “Until unemployment starts to flatten out and begin to return to hiring, these numbers will probably continue to push up.”

Against that backdrop, rising delinquencies suggest U.S. housing is not yet out of the woods.

Early-stage delinquencies are a leading indicator of future bankruptcy filings, and Equifax’s July data suggest bankruptcies will continue rising in coming months.

Bankruptcy filings were up 35 percent in July compared with a year earlier, accelerating from both June and May.

Still, while more Americans are late on their mortgage payments, they seemed to be keeping up with credit card bills.

Auto delinquency rates rose for the third straight month in July and are up about 13 percent over last year, to 0.75 percent. Subprime auto delinquencies, at 3.19 percent, are also up for three months running.

Meanwhile, student loan delinquencies are also up, partly reflecting graduates’ difficulty in landing jobs after college.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 227 Comments

New Jersey Home Price Tracker – August

The New Jersey Home Price Index Tracker has been updated to include:
* June S&P Case Shiller (Aggregate, Tiered, Condo)
* Q2 FHFA Home Price Index (HPI, Purchase Only)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)


(click to enlarge)

FHFA (Formerly known as the OFHEO) Home Price Index

HPI (Includes Refis) – Peaked in Q1 2007 and is down 10.02% from peak

Purchase Only – Peaked in Q2 2006 and is down 11.16% from peak

S&P Case Shiller NY Metro Commutable Area Home Price Index

Low Tier (Under $284606) – Peaked in October 2006 and is down 24.26% from peak

Mid Tier ($284606 – $417722) – Peaked in September 2006 and is down 22.14% from peak

High Tier (Over $417722) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 16.51% from peak

Aggregate (Overall Market) – Peaked in June 2006 and is down 20.54% from peak

Condo-Only Index – Peaked in February 2006 and is down 15.07% from peak

NY Metro Area Aggregate Year over Year Changes

Jun 08 -7.04%
Jul 08 -7.04%
Aug 08 -6.61%
Sep 08 -7.13%
Oct 08 -7.72%
Nov 08 -8.73%
Dec 08 -9.21%
Jan 09 -9.72%
Feb 09 -10.33%
Mar 09 -11.69%
Apr 09 -12.44%
May 09 -12.07%
Jun 09 -11.94%

Posted in General | 254 Comments

July S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index

The S&P CS HPI is due out at 9am this morning. Post will become updated as information becomes available.

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Probably Fell at Slower Pace, Confidence Up

Home values in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably decreased at a slower pace and consumer confidence climbed, signs the recession is easing as the real- estate crisis dissipates, economists said before reports today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 16.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the smallest drop in almost a year, according to the median forecast of 31 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A report from the Conference Board may show confidence rose in August for the first time in three months.

The S&P/Case-Shiller figures are due at 9 a.m. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 15.7 percent to 17.1 percent. Year-over-year records for the gauge, which was down 17.1 percent in May from a year earlier, began in 2001, and the measure has fallen every month since January 2007.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 111 Comments

Go West Stay East

From the Record:


Downturn hammers the Poconos

For buyers turned off by North Jersey’s high home prices and property taxes, the answer has long been: Go west, to the Poconos.

Transplants from North Jersey and the New York metropolitan area have swollen the population of what was once a rural vacation area. In Monroe County, Pa., just across the Delaware Water Gap on Route 80, the population has soared 72 percent since 1990, to an estimated 165,000.

But the housing bust has slammed the Poconos, with prices down 20 percent over the past year, to a median $140,000. At the same time, foreclosures have risen. And buyers who’d like to take advantage of the lower prices often can’t get mortgages.

All in all, veteran Poconos real estate professionals say, it’s the worst market they’ve seen in decades.

“We have more houses than there are buyers in the market who can qualify to get a loan,” said Kathy Louis of Kathy Louis Real Estate Inc. in Mount Pocono. “They [lenders] shut the valve completely off.”

Now, the question is whether the demand for housing in the Poconos will return as the real estate and mortgage markets recover.

But others say the rate of migration from New York and New Jersey is not likely to return to the levels of the first half of this decade. For one thing, said John Woodling, director of planning for Monroe County, environmental regulations and other restrictions will make home construction more difficult in the Poconos.

“The parcels of land that can be developed relatively easily — there aren’t that many left,” Woodling said.

Moreover, more people from New York and New Jersey may decide that they’re not willing to make the required trade-offs — especially the long commute, which could become even more burdensome if gas prices soar again.

“People say, ‘It’s only 80 miles to Manhattan.’ But it’s 2 1/2 hours in the morning and 2 1/2 hours at night,” said Christine Harvell, a Stroudsburg real estate agent who grew up in Lyndhurst.

Of course, commuters spend money as well as time: the bus to the Port Authority Bus Terminal costs more than $460 a month.

While the commute is tough, living in the Poconos meant the Marohns could build a large, four-bedroom house for less than what a Cape Cod would cost in North Jersey. When they step out onto their deck, they’re not looking into the neighbor’s yard, because the nearest house is “two football fields away,” Sylvia said.

“I couldn’t see us anyplace else right now,” she said.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 142 Comments

Jobs added in NJ, but unemployment rises to 9.3%

From the NJ Department of Workforce and Labor Development:

New Jersey Gained 13,000 Private Sector Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly to 9.3 Percent

Employment in New Jersey grew in July, led by a gain of 13,000 jobs at private sector companies, ending a string of 17 consecutive monthly contractions dating back to January 2008. The private sector growth was tempered by a decline of 7,100 public sector jobs. The state’s unemployment rate in July was 9.3 percent, remaining below the national rate of 9.4 percent.

According to preliminary estimates from the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development’s monthly survey of employers, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the Garden State increased by 5,900 jobs in July, to a total of 3,936,100. Over the month, six of ten private industry supersectors recorded gains while three realized losses; one was unchanged. The decrease in public sector employment was largely attributable to higher than expected summer separations in local government education.

From the APP:

Economists cautious about state report showing N.J. gained jobs last month

New Jersey’s economy added 5,900 jobs in July, the bulk of which were in the private sector, in a sign that the recession might be easing, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development reported today.

The figures were a 180-degree turn from the previous 17 months — and, apparently, what the rest of the nation was reporting — leading economists to caution about jumping to conclusions.

“This is apparently good news. However, it’s not time to pop the champagne corks yet,” Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes said. “Last year, we had a substantial revision (after the initial figures were released). We need several months of positive data like this to establish a trend.”

The report showed the unemployment rate rose last month from 9.2 percent to 9.3 percent, its highest level since June 1977.

From the AP:

NJ’s jobless rate inches up in July

New Jersey’s unemployment rate remains at a 32-year high. However, state officials say job gains in July reversed a 17-month trend.

The jobless rate last month inched up one-tenth of a percentage point from 9.2 percent in June to 9.3 percent.

Preliminary estimates from the state’s Labor and Workforce Development Department show the state’s economy added 5,900 jobs for a total of 3,936,100.

The department says six of ten private industry supersectors recorded gains while three saw losses.

Gainers included the leisure and hospitality, construction and manufacturing sectors. Trade, transportation and utilities saw the greatest losses of 4,500 jobs.

Since December 2007, New Jersey has lost 150,100 jobs.

From the Press of Atlantic City:

New Jersey unemployment rises in July

New Jersey’s unemployment rate rose slightly in July to 9.3 percent, although employers managed to create a net 5,900 new jobs, state officials said today.

It was the first month of job growth after 17 straight months of job losses, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development. Officials there estimated that a total 13,000 jobs were actually added in the private sector last month, but was offset by 7,100 job cuts in the public sector.

The cuts were attributed to higher losses in local government education over the summer.

“New Jersey’s private sector employment is trending in the right direction,” Labor Commissioner David J. Socolow said in a statement. “Governor Corzine’s economic recovery initiatives are fostering job creation, and the nation’s recovery program is helping to restore economic confidence.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 196 Comments

“So you have to ask, why all the optimism?”

From Diana Olick at the CNBC Realty Check Blog:

Homeowners Still Deluded

A new report from Zillow.com finds that 60 percent of homeowners surveyed believe their home lost value in the past twelve months. In reality, 83 percent of all homes lost value. Owners in the South were the most deluded and those in the West, understandably, were the least. And to make matters worse, 81 percent of all homeowners surveyed actually believe their home value will not fall over the next six months; this as foreclosure numbers rise and all of the action in the housing market continues on the lowest of the low end. I have not found one expert (and I know I will as soon as I write this) who claims that home prices have hit bottom. Sales, perhaps, but not prices.

So you have to ask, why all the optimism? As we all know, it doesn’t come from me. I swim in the deep end of the pool with all the real numbers. I think it’s possible that some are confusing increased sales activity with sudden total recovery. This will not be a V-shaped recovery, where housing suddenly bounces back to normal levels of appreciation (4-6 percent a year). Housing is likely hit bottom and sit there for a good long while, as foreclosures work through the system, the mortgage market finds its footing, and government intervention changes the way we buy, sell, build and finance homes.

Trust me, I’m all for home appreciation; like I always say, I own a home, and like most Americans, it is my single largest investment. But if we’re going to embrace a new responsibility in real estate investment (which I honestly hope we are), then we can’t let a few non-negative data points completely skew our vision of realty reality.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 167 Comments

REDC Auction Results

From Crain’s New York Business:

Foreclosed properties go for 14 cents on dollar

More than a thousand real estate bargain hunters spent $13.2 million Sunday snapping up foreclosed homes in New York and New Jersey during an auction in New York City. In addition, two successful bidders walked away with oceanfront lots in the Bahamas—at discounts of about 85%.

At its last New York City event for the summer, Real Estate Disposition Corp.’s Auction.com put 149 properties on the block, including 10 vacant lots totaling 2.5 acres located in Cistern Cay on the Berry Islands, just northwest of Nassau.

Other deals of the day included the sale of a 1,498-square-foot, four-bedroom house in Suffolk County, L.I., for $126,000, 67% less than its stated value of $381,000, and the sale of an artsy 3,150-square-foot, 18-room, seven-bedroom house in the Bronx, for $367,500, 37% less than its estimated value of $595,000.

“These auctions will clear up inventory,” says Bill Staniford, CEO of PropertyShark.com. “We will see more foreclosed homes auctioned off.”

Foreclosures in the five boroughs were up 14.8% in July, to 2,192, from the same time last year, according to market research firm RealtyTrac.

Auction.com’s latest event attracted a slightly smaller crowd than its previous auctions. Of nearly 1,500 pre-registered attendees, only 1,175 showed up at the Sheraton New York Hotel and Towers in midtown Manhattan. The company’s previous New York events in March and June drew crowds of more than 1,200 and drummed up about $28.2 million in sales from more than 300 properties.

“REDC has been pretty successful,” said Mr. Staniford, who did not attend Sunday’s event. “It’s a decent turnout considering most people are on vacation during this period.”

So far this year, Auction.com, a subsidiary of Irvine, Calif.-based REDC, has auctioned more than 20,000 foreclosed houses across the nation for $1.4 billion.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 149 Comments

Put away the champagne, for now.

From the WSJ (Hat Tip ChiFi):

Home Prices: There’s No Quick Recovery Ahead

So, is our long national nightmare over? Has the housing market finally hit bottom?

There has been some muted — albeit exhausted — cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before we break out the champagne, look out for further potential problems just down the road.

Prices may — may — be nearing the bottom in many markets. But beyond the headlines, there are plenty of reasons to stay cautious. There may even be fresh dangers just ahead.

And even if prices have stopped falling, it may be years before they start rising sharply again.

First, late spring is traditionally the strongest season in the real-estate market.

And it’s hardly a surprise the market saw some green shoots this time around. It’s enjoying not one, but two, gigantic taxpayer subsidies — an $8,000 refundable tax credit, or gift, for first-time buyers, as well as those cheap mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve has been spending billions of dollars to keep interest rates down.

Both are only short-term fixes. Any sustained economic upturn would be expected to send long-term mortgage rates rising again, dousing the real-estate market with fresh cold water.

The picture on inventories isn’t as good as it sounds, either. A lot of unsold homes have simply been put up for rent instead, especially in the most difficult markets like Miami. The result? A glut of empty rentals as well.

New waves of foreclosures and distressed sales may be coming, too. In states such as California, it can take many months for delinquencies to turn to foreclosures, which means last winter’s bad news may still be coming down the pike. Meanwhile, vast tranches of teaser-rate mortgages are due to reset later this year and in 2010.

As for the economy: Both unemployment and household debt levels remain at extremely high levels by the standards of postwar history. Either is bad news for housing. The combination is very bad.

Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argued in a recent paper that the fundamentals still aren’t great. It still remains cheaper to rent than to own in many markets, he says.

The biggest bubbles usually produce the deepest busts. And the 2002-2006 bubble was a doozy. The bad news may have ended after three terrible years, but maybe not. Japanese housing prices still haven’t recovered from the late 1980s bubble. Western U.S. markets took six or seven years to recover after the last big bubble burst there in the early 1990s.

Yes, there are some hopeful signs, but don’t let them fool you into thinking it’s all clear. It might not be. As ever, anyone making a major financial decision needs to think more about his or her own situation than what “the market” is doing. A real-estate purchase needs to make sense on its own terms. And measure it on cash flow today, not the hope for capital gains tomorrow. When you factor in all the costs, is the purchase cheaper than renting?

If you get a cheap mortgage and you are aggressive on price, you may get a bargain. That’s especially true if the owner has to sell. Foreclosures and other distressed sales are selling for about 20% below the rest of the market. There are opportunities out there. But you can afford to take your time to shop around.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 236 Comments

New Jersey Foreclosures Accelerate: Up 40% in June, 24% in H1

From the Record:

Foreclosure activity up sharply in N.J.

New Jersey’s recent good news of falling home foreclosure rates was interrupted in July, with default activity climbing higher than the national average, according to data from foreclosure information provider RealtyTrac Inc.

Home foreclosure activity rose sharply — by nearly 40 percent — last month statewide compared with a year ago, said RealtyTrac of Irvine, Calif. National foreclosure activity rose 32 percent from the same month last year.

Default filings had declined by 30 percent in the first half of the year, dropping 13 percent in June, 41 percent in May and 3.5 percent in April from those same months a year ago.

“Part of it [July’s dramatic increase] is due to a backlog in the courts, which process these documents,” said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac spokesman. “So they were able to catch up on some of the backlog in July.”

Blomquist said RealtyTrac was seeing a similar pattern in other states where foreclosures are filed through the courts, such as in New Jersey. July’s foreclosures of 6,467 homes was the highest since October 2008, he said.

Another factor in the foreclosure rate surge was that relief from the state’s Mortgage Stabilization and Relief Act was coming to an end. That provided several programs and funding to delay foreclosures for troubled homeowners in the hope that they could eventually repay their loans.

“There definitely has been a time when the numbers were looking good in New Jersey,” said Blomquist. “What that legislation did was not a long-term solution for a lot of borrowers.”

He said other states that enacted similar legislation also had temporary drops in foreclosure activity only to see it rebound in a few months.

“It [such programs] slows down recovery and keeps the foreclosure process on these homes in limbo and hanging over the market,” said Blomquist.

In New Jersey, 6,467 residences had foreclosure proceedings against them last month, or one in every 541 houses. Nationwide, 360,149 properties, one in every 355 homes, were in some phase of the foreclosure process.

From RealtyTrac courtesy of the Record:

* Foreclosure filing rates for New Jersey for July, by county:
* Bergen: 1/805 homes, ranked 18th out of 21 New Jersey counties in foreclosure rate
* Passaic: 1/384, ranked third
* Morris: 1/952, ranked 20th
* Hudson: 1/758, ranked 16th
* Essex: 1/375, ranked second
* Union: 1/326, ranked first

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 60 Comments

New Jersey Home Prices Decline in Q2

From the National Association of Realtors:

Metropolitan Area Prices

Metropolitan area / Year over year change in prices
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. -10.3 percent
Atlantic City -14.5 percent
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y., N.J., Pa. -16.3 percent
New York-Wayne-White Plains, N.Y.-N.J. -14.9 percent
Edison -11.2 percent
Newark-Union, N.J.-Pa. -9.7 percent
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. -10.5 percent
Trenton-Ewing -20.3 percent

From the APP:

Area home prices continue to decline

The median price for a single-family home in the area that includes Monmouth and Ocean counties declined 11.2 percent in the second quarter, tough news for sellers but a boost to housing affordability, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

The median price for a house in Monmouth, Ocean, Middlesex and Somerset counties dropped to $331,700 for the second quarter, down from $373,700, the price during the same period a year earlier, the association said. The median price for a condominium dropped to $254,100, down 6.3 percent.

The median price means that half the homes sold for more while the other half sold for less.

Other areas of New Jersey saw steep declines as well. The median price for an existing single-family home in the Atlantic City area fell 14.5 percent while in the Trenton area it dropped 20.3 percent, the association said.

The median price in Essex, Hunterdon, Morris and Union counties fell 9.7 percent while the area that includes Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties, as well as New York City, dropped 14.9 percent.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 175 Comments

NJ bankruptcies up 44%

From the Record:

New Jersey bankruptcies surge

The number of bankruptcies in New Jersey surged by more than 40 percent over the last year as recession-battered consumers struggled with debts and job losses while businesses suffered shrinking revenue.

Personal and business bankruptcies rose to 3,269 statewide in July, up 44 percent from the same month in 2008, according to the latest figures available from U.S. Bankruptcy Court in New Jersey.

In Bergen County, personal bankruptcies rose even faster – 63 percent higher in July than a year earlier. Passaic County personal bankruptcies in July were up 59 percent over July 2008.

Personal bankruptcies accounted for about 95 percent of the state’s filings in July, court records show. About three-quarters of these were Chapter 7 filings, in which the filer does not seek to restructure debts but goes straight into liquidation.

In the 12 months ending July 31, business bankruptcies increased by 37 percent in Bergen and fell by 6 percent in Passaic over the prior 12 months. Seventy percent of the business filings in the period were Chapter 7 cases.

Bankruptcy attorneys said the numbers weren’t surprising given the poor economy. They cited mortgage problems and health care bills as the main factors behind most personal bankruptcies.

“We are not just talking about sub-prime at this point,” said Eric R. Perkins, a Ridgewood bankruptcy attorney. “You are [also] talking about properties that were appraised very high so that they could cash out.

“So now they have to pay these mortgages and they have either lost their jobs (or) their income has been reduced,” he said.

Jay B. Yacker, a Fort Lee bankruptcy attorney, said about 70 percent of his cases stem from real estate debt, where a few years ago 70 percent came from credit card debt.

“When the real estate market goes down it seems like the bankruptcies go flying up,” he said.

Sirota said he doesn’t expect the figures to improve soon, even if the economy does.

“The companies that are suffering have been suffering for a while,” he said. “And depending on the circumstances (they) can only hang in so long, before they need a relief of a bankruptcy proceeding. The economy may not come back fast enough to save businesses that are in varying degrees of distress.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 220 Comments

NYC Shadow Supply

From Crain’s:

Shadow units cast pall

New York City’s condominium market may be in even worse shape than the commonly used yardsticks show.

In Manhattan in the first quarter, sales were halved from year-earlier levels even as more apartments flooded onto the market, leaving it choking on an 18.6-month supply of units. Meanwhile, in the recently red-hot neighborhood of Williamsburg in Brooklyn, sales in the period plummeted by 70% as even more units expanded the property glut there.

As bad as those figures look, they may actually overstate the health of the market. Industry experts point to a growing mountain of so-called shadow inventory that is not reflected in the data. This includes units that are held by developers in soon-to-be completed buildings, as well as those kept off the market by banks and by individual owners who are waiting for conditions to improve before they tack up “For Sale” signs.

“We are undercounting the housing stock,” says Jonathan Miller, chief executive of appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. “And when you have more inventory than the market can absorb, it places pressure on prices.”

In a report on Manhattan residential real estate this spring, Mr. Miller estimated that in addition to the 10,445 condominiums that showed up in unsold inventory, there were as many as 7,000 shadow units.

An analysis conducted by Crain’s, with help from Mr. Miller and brokerage firm Aptsandlofts.com, shows the scope of the problem in two bellwether neighborhoods: Williamsburg and Manhattan’s financial district.

In the latter, there are currently 410 condominiums for sale. But according to Crain’s research—which involved tabulating all the units in a dozen financial district condo buildings—there are also nearly 1,000 units lurking in the shadows. In Williamsburg, meanwhile, feverish building has helped put 2,820 units on the block this year, according to Aptsandlofts.com. But there are almost as many again not yet accounted for; 2,760 units will come on line next year.

With shadow inventory adding downward pressure to prices, some developers are abandoning hopes of selling their units and are offering them as rentals instead. Rather than collect lump sums at sale, as planned, they will collect monthly rents—and rack up big losses. But at this point, even the rental market is glutted, and the stream of new units shows little sign of slowing.

“More inventory will continue to lower rents,” says Marc Lewis, president of Century 21 NY Metro, who believes that Manhattan vacancy rates are closer to 5% than the 2% reported by most industry players.

Given the dismal market and a lack of financing, few new buildings—if any—will be started in coming months. But scores of properties that were already under construction before the credit crisis of 2007 will hit the market in the next few years.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 250 Comments