The new New Jersey

Posted on January 7, 2022 by grim

From NJ Monthly:

How Covid-19 Changed the Way We Work in New Jersey

When Governor Phil Murphy signed an unprecedented executive order in March 2020 directing New Jersey’s 9 million residents to stay home, the state’s schools and nonessential businesses to shut down, and employers to let their employees work from home if possible, O’Daniels and her colleagues worked remotely for a few weeks. Then, they were furloughed. Finally, in July, O’Daniels was laid off, and her nearly 20-year tenure in the hotel industry came to an end. Her husband, who was also working in hospitality, was laid off around the same time. “I was devastated,” she says.

Between February and April 2020, New Jersey lost jobs in all of its major private-industry sectors, and unemployment spiked from 3.8 to 16.6 percent, according to the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. By June 2020, 1.24 million New Jersey workers, or about 28 percent of the labor force, had filed for unemployment benefits, either to make up for a lost job or lost hours.

O’Daniels was able to secure a job three months later as a sales consultant for the catalog-websites Wine Enthusiast and Wine Express, in a different industry where her skills were transferable. “I sold myself,” she says of convincing the hiring manager that she was the right person for the position, even though she didn’t fit the typical mold for an employee. But not every local job seeker has been so fortunate.

Now, almost two years later, the job market and the economy are being reshaped by a global pandemic that has had unpredictable repercussions. New Jersey workers and employers continue to pick up the pieces and adapt to an ever-changing situation.

“We are going through a reset,” says James W. Hughes, dean emeritus of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy and a professor at Rutgers University. “We are not going back to the old normal. We are going to the next normal. We are going to have to live with Covid-19 and its variants. It’s not going away.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 156 Comments

Strong GDP growth for NJ

Posted on January 6, 2022 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Good news: There’s been a wholesale transformation of New Jersey’s economy

You might have missed it amid the holiday rush, but 2021 ended with some incredibly positive economic news: for the third quarter, the Garden State ranked fourth in Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, growth. Not fourth in the region, or fourth among states that start with “New” in their name — fourth in the nation.

Economists describe GDP as a calculation of the size of a given economy, and New Jersey grew faster than states that critics often point to as role models — places like Texas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which published this data, New Jersey’s strong performance was fueled by notable growth in core industries like finance, professional services, and manufacturing.

This top-five ranking is particularly remarkable given our state’s recent history – in the eight years prior to Gov. Phil Murphy taking office, New Jersey ranked 47th in the U.S. in GDP growth. And this GDP data follows other recent data indicating New Jersey is regaining its market share in venture capital dollars invested in the state, as well as outpacing the region and the country for new business formation.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Great Reshuffle Continues

Posted on January 5, 2022 by grim

From the Washington Post:

A record 4.5 million workers quit or changed jobs in November 

The labor market’s record churn reached new heights in November, with 4.5 million workers quitting or changing their jobs, the highest number in the survey’s history, according the Labor Department’s monthly report on job openings.

It was the fourth time in 2021 that the number of workers quitting reached a record, with previous highs in April, August and September. Workers took advantage of a hot jobs market, with employers reporting some 10.6 million job openings in the survey — down from recent records but still well above pre-pandemic averages.

The data provides yet another illustration of how profoundly the pandemic has transformed the dynamics of the labor market. Nearly two years after some 20 million workers lost their jobs in the wave of shutdowns in spring 2020, the imbalance between available workers and job openings has given many workers more leverage than they’ve had in recent memory.

“This is the tightest labor market ever,” said Julia Pollak, economist at the jobs site ZipRecruiter. “These are not quits from the labor force but quits from lower-paying jobs to higher-paying jobs, from less prestigious jobs to better, more prestigious jobs, from less flexible jobs to more flexible jobs.”

Posted in General | 133 Comments

Not such a deep dive

Posted on January 3, 2022 by grim

From News 12:

Deep Dive: Where things stand now for real estate in New Jersey heading into 2022

Where did 2021 stand when it came to real estate in New Jersey?

“Home sales were really hot, especially in the beginning of the year,” says Caleb Silver with Investopedia. “If we look at the national average it is up 20% year over year in terms of home prices, but Jersey slowed a lot since the beginning of the year. Monmouth County, the biggest increase, up 19%, Morris County up 12.4%, Bergen County up 11.5%, and Hudson only up 6.1%.

“Does Silver have any projections for the new year?”

Well you could probably bet on the fact that interest rates are going to rise which means mortgage rates are going to rise too. We know inventory has been tight so we probably will see a slowdown in sales and more of a drop in home prices as we get into the new year,” says Silver.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate | 271 Comments

Predictions 2022!

Posted on December 31, 2021 by grim

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Economy

Commodities

Inflation

Posted in General | 189 Comments

Whatcha waiting for PA?

Posted on December 29, 2021 by grim

From CBS Pittsburgh:

Pennsylvania Stands Still As Neighbors Hike Minimum Wage, But Some Lawmakers See Action In 2022

What do Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Delaware all share in common besides a border with Pennsylvania? They each have higher minimum wages than Pennsylvania, and some are raising them in 2022 – but Pennsylvania is not.

“It’s 5,651 days since the Pennsylvania Legislature last gave a raise for the minimum wage. That’s a long time,” PA Sen. Christine Tartaglione, a Philadelphia Democrat, told KDKA political editor Jon Delano on Tuesday.

While Pennsylvania’s minimum wage is stuck at $7.25 an hour, neighboring states will be offering more on Jan. 1: $8.75 in West Virginia, $9.30 in Ohio, $10.50 in Delaware, $12.50 in Maryland, $13.00 in New Jersey and $13.20 in New York.

Tartaglione authored the last minimum wage in 2006 and has a bill to raise the wage for everyone, including all restaurant and tip workers.

“Now I have Senate Bill 12, which will bring the minimum wage to $12.00 with a pathway to $15.00. It’s not going to start right at $15.00,” said Tartaglione.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Philly | 121 Comments

“How high is too high?”

Posted on December 26, 2021 by grim

From CNBC:

Sales of newly built homes tank as affordability hits buyers

At some point the price is just too high. That may be increasingly the case for potential buyers of newly built single-family homes.

Sales of those homes in November came in well below analysts expectations, down 14% from a year ago. And October’s sales numbers were revised to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Census Bureau count.  

Despite slowing sales and rising mortgage rates, the median price of newly built homes sold in November rose nearly 19% from November 2020. This came even as the supply of new homes rose. That rising inventory should push prices down, observers say. However, with inventory in existing homes historically low, prices in newly built homes are continuing to jump. The question for now is, how high is too high?

“A hefty correction appears to be due, but the rapid increases in existing home prices — inventory in that market is only one-third the level in the new home market, relative to sales — is putting extra upward pressure on new home prices,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note to investors. 

Prices for existing homes sold in November were up just over 13% year over year, a slight increase from the annual gain in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Development | 114 Comments

Not slowing down yet

Posted on December 23, 2021 by grim

From the WSJ:

Homes Sold in November at Fastest Pace in 10 Months

Existing-home sales, which rose in November to the highest seasonally adjusted annual rate since January, are on track for their strongest year since 2006 as low mortgage-interest rates and a robust job market drive up demand.

Sales of previously owned homes rose 1.9% in November, climbing for the third straight month, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. 

The booming housing market comes against a backdrop of an economy that is growing but facing pressure from high inflation and worries about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The new fast-spreading variant could crimp consumer spending during the holiday shopping season, particularly outlays on in-person services like travel, entertainment and dining out. 

…

Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale dropped to a record low at the beginning of the year and has stayed well below normal all year, according to NAR. Home prices have soaredas buyers have competed for a limited number of homes. The median existing-home price rose 13.9% in November from a year earlier, NAR said, to $353,900.

The holiday season and cold weather in some parts of the country typically curtail home sales near the end of the year. But activity hasn’t slowed much in recent weeks. Buyers might have been in a rush to purchase before home prices rose further or interest rates ticked upward, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 137 Comments

Where is everyone?

Posted on December 22, 2021 by grim

From Politico:

U.S. population growth in 2021 slowest since nation’s founding

The U.S. population grew just 0.1 percent in 2021, the slowest rate since the nation was founded in the 18th century, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Census Bureau attributed the slow population growth to the Covid-19 pandemic, though the country has been experiencing low birth rates for several years. Low population growth in recent years has historically been attributed to simultaneously rising death rates of an aging U.S. population and falling declining rates in both births and migration.

Studies showed that net migration from Puerto Rico and foreign countries declined during the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the Census Bureau, 2021 is the first year since 1937 that the population has grown by fewer than one million people and is also the year with the lowest number of people added to the population since 1900. The population growth rate also stalled to historically low levels in 1918 and 1919, due to the Spanish Flu pandemic and World War I. 

Idaho added the most to its population in 2021, with 2.9 percent growth. The District of Columbia and New York had the greatest population declines, losing 2.9 percent and 1.6 percent of their populations, respectively.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

Grim beginnings

Posted on December 20, 2021 by grim

Thanks CNN:

US could be in store for a ‘grim beginning’ to the new year, experts warn, as dual variants of Covid-19 spread

With the Delta and Omicron coronavirus variants spreading across the nation as the new year approaches, health experts are urging Americans to get vaccinated or boosted to protect themselves and others before they face greater chances of infection.

Airport travel before Christmas is up by nearly double from a year ago, according toTransportation Security Administration data, with more than two million people screened each day from December 16-18. And the indoor gatherings among friends and family that highlight the holiday season could ultimately infect more who are at higher risk for Covid-19 complications. 

“We’re all anticipating with Delta, with all the travel that we’re doing and all these holiday get-togethers, the beginnings of Omicron and its spread as well as … influenza also making its appearance, we could be in for an ominous winter season and a kind of grim beginning of the new year,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told CNN’s Jim Acosta Sunday.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 238 Comments

When do we get our recovery?

Posted on December 19, 2021 by grim

From the NY Federal Reserve:

The Region Is Struggling to Recover from the Pandemic Recession

The pandemic struck the New York-Northern New Jersey region early and hard, and the economy is still struggling to recover nearly two years later. Indeed, employment fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region wasn’t far behind, creating a much larger hole to dig out of than other parts of the country. While the region saw significant growth as the economy began to heal, growth has slowed noticeably, and job shortfalls—that is, the amount by which employment remains below pre-pandemic levels—are some of the largest in the nation. Among major metro areas, job shortfalls in New York City, Buffalo, and Syracuse rank among the five worst in the country. Thus, despite much progress, the region is struggling to recover from the pandemic recession. By contrast, employment has rebounded above pre-pandemic levels in Puerto Rico, reaching a five-year high.

The New York-Northern New Jersey region saw particularly sharp job losses during the pandemic recession (February to April 2020), and the region has not yet caught up to the rest of the nation during the recovery. The chart below shows employment trends through the pandemic, indexed to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels. With New York City emerging as the epicenter of the pandemic early on, the initial job loss of more than 20 percent in the downstate New York region greatly exceeded the national decline of 15 percent. Similarly, job losses in Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County, and upstate New York were greater than for the nation, at around 17-18 percent.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 73 Comments

NJ gets back to work

Posted on December 17, 2021 by grim

From NJ101.5:

As jobless benefits end, NJ sees surge in hiring

As enhanced unemployment benefits expired and tens of thousands of New Jerseyans faced the end of jobless benefits altogether, there are signs the hiring crisis is easing.

The Garden State added back thousands of jobs to the economy in November across nearly all private sectors. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down 0.4%.

New Jersey Department of Labor figures show strong hiring, with 25,800 jobs added in November and 76,000 jobs over the last three months.

The best performing segments of the recovering economy in New Jersey is the professional and business service sector, which added 8,600 jobs.

Strong growth is also seen in the leisure and hospitality sector with more than 3,000 jobs added back.

Only the construction sector saw negative growth, and that is likely due to an annual seasonal fall back as well as supply chain issues with construction materials.

Despite the strong job growth, however, many private employers continue to report issues finding workers and New Jersey still lags behind much of the nation when it comes to pandemic recovery. New Jersey’s unemployment rate remains more than two full percentage points above the national rate of 4.4%.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 247 Comments

Thanks Millennials!

Posted on December 15, 2021 by grim

From the WSJ:

Millennials Are Supercharging the Housing Market

Alex and Michelle Angert lived the last years of their 20s without a permanent address. They moved out of a small Manhattan apartment in 2018 to stay in short-term rentals around the U.S. before embarking on a yearlong honeymoon to travel the world, starting in the Philippines.

When the pandemic cut their travels short last year, Mr. Angert, 31, decided to take a job in public relations in Richmond, Va. He and Mrs. Angert, who is also 31 and works at a healthcare tech company, started house hunting this spring. After losing out on multiple offers, they raised their $400,000 budget. In July, they plunked down $635,000 on a three-bedroom ranch in a tree-filled lot near a Richmond country club.

“I would have had all of these regrets in life if I didn’t travel,” Mr. Angert said. “But it feels like the right time to settle down and put down some roots.”

For years, conventional wisdom held that millennials, born from 1981 to 1996, would become the generation that largely spurned homeownership. Instead, since 2019, when they surpassed the baby boomers to become the largest living adult generation in the U.S., they have reached a housing milestone, accounting for more than half of all home-purchase loan applications last year.

The generation’s growing appetite for homeownership is a major reason why many economists forecast home-buying demand is likely to remain strong for years to come.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 303 Comments

Realtors: Just 2.9% in 2022

Posted on December 14, 2021 by grim

From Fortune:

How much 2022 home prices are forecast to shift in each of America’s 100 largest markets

It’s official: The rate of U.S. home price growth is finally beginning to decelerate after 16 consecutive months of price acceleration. 

That deceleration could be the start of a bigger cooldown. At least that’s what Realtor.com, a real estate listing site owned by News Corp., is forecasting. By the end of 2022, the site is predicting U.S. home values will climb just 2.9% as rising mortgage rates take some steam out of the market. That would represent both the smallest annual uptick since 2012 and also a big-time slowdown from the 19.5% U.S. home price jump posted in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from September 2020 to September 2021.

That said, buyers and sellers alike shouldn’t necessarily expect Realtor.com’s forecast of 2.9% home price growth in their local market. Separate from its national forecast figure, Realtor.com also modeled predictions for year-over-year home price changes in the nation’s 100 largest housing markets. Those projected growth rates vary from 10% in Portland, Maine, to 0.2% in Honolulu. The former represents a bullish market that would look a lot like the 2021 frenzied landscape, while the latter would be a margin of error away from seeing prices fall.

Joining Maine’s largest city in the bullish camp are markets like Providence, R.I. (forecast to jump 9.5%); Salt Lake City (8.5%); Worcester, Mass. (8.2%); Boise (7.9%); Palm Bay, Fla. (7.9%); Stockton, Calif. (7.8%); Spokane, Wash. (7.7%); Boston (7.5%); and Seattle (7.5%) rounding out the top 10. Many of these markets, like Boise and Portland, have seen an inflow of remote workers during the pandemic looking to escape high-cost markets like San Jose. That trend, Realtor.com says, is likely to continue to shake up the market in 2022.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 81 Comments

Prognostication Season

Posted on December 12, 2021 by grim

From HousingWire:

Will the housing market continue its hot streak in 2022?

1. Demand will continue to be strong into 2022.

The first signal we look at to forecast the strength of the housing market is days on market – how fast are homes moving? Right now, we’re seeing a median of 49 days on market and climbing, as it normally does this time of year. A typical December would see market time at 85-100 days, so you can see from the chart that demand is staying elevated later in the year, which is a bullish sign for next year.

Due to the strong seasonal patterns, I predict days on market will hit a low of 21 days in April, tying the record-fast market times from earlier this year.

2. Low inventory will continue to be a major issue.

Unfortunately for all these eager homebuyers, inventory continues to be at record low levels. We are currently at just over 350,000 single-family homes on the market. You can see from this chart that inventory has been on a downward trajectory for years, and recent strong demand has only accelerated this trend. You can also see that it’s normal for inventory to drop at this time of year, but it’s actually declining faster than I expected even a few weeks ago, which indicates that we’ll start 2022 with record- low levels of available inventory, even less than in 2021.

At this point, it looks like we’re going to end the year at just under 300,000 single-family homes for sale. If we’re lucky, we’ll start getting greater inventory in the housing market in February, then it’ll start climbing and be at a more normal curve next year, but we’re still miles away from a normal level, with no indication that we’ll return to our usual million homes anytime soon.

3. Home prices will remain high into 2022.

With demand showing no signs of cooling and record-low inventory, I expect home prices to remain high into next year. The median home price for single family homes this week is $375,000, which is about 10% higher than last year and where we are likely to end the year.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 81 Comments