Men, evidence that your wife should be responsible for picking your house

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 78 Comments

From the Philly Inquirer:

Study: Homeownership favors men, but not in Pa., N.J.

Homeownership is more profitable for men than for women, a study released Thursday by the real estate search engine RealtyTrac maintains.

Analyzing 2.1 million single-family homes nationwide, RealtyTrac found that homes owned by single men on average are worth 10 percent more and have appreciated $10,112 (16 percent) more since purchase than those owned by single women.

Single male homeowners accounted for 1.14 million of the total, and single women for 1.01 million, based on public record tax assessor data collected by RealtyTrac.

Pennsylvania and New Jersey do not quite follow the national trend, RealtyTrac data show.

Although single men in Pennsylvania own houses worth $8,160 (5 percent) more than single women – $149,486 versus $141,326 – the average gain since purchase is $689, or 2 percent, in favor of women, RealtyTrac showed.

The actual return on purchase is 31.95 percent for women and 28.9 percent for men, data show.

In New Jersey, the gap at purchase is 5 percent in the men’s favor – $257,805 versus $246,188.

The average gain in value since purchase, however, favors the women – $8,546 or 29 percent more, the RealtyTrac data show.

“Single women I sell to gravitate to smaller, less expensive houses that offer an easier lifestyle,” said Val Nunnenkamp, an agent with Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Fox & Roach Realtors in Marlton.

“I’d say 89 percent of them do, and what they do with the houses and how that is presented to the next buyer at sale time makes the difference,” he said.

FHFA: 19 consecutive quarterly price increases

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 135 Comments

From HousingWire:

FHFA: Home prices increase again, rise 1.3

While home prices only increased a meager 1.3% in the first quarter of 2016, it’s added onto a long string of increases; 19 consecutive quarterly price increases to be exact.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index, this chart shows the seasonally adjusted and unadjusted monthly appreciation rates.

From first quarter 2015 to first quarter 2016, house prices rose 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive year in which prices grew more than 5%.

The FHFA added that its seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 0.7% from February.

“While the overall appreciation rate was robust in the first quarter, home price appreciation was somewhat less widespread than in recent quarters,” said FHFA Supervisory Economist Andrew Leventis.

Skipping the starter

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery | 96 Comments

From NJ101.5:

NJ millennials are skipping ‘starter homes’ and going for these instead

The term “starter home” may be on the path to extinction, at least here in New Jersey. It seems many young buyers are skipping that first step and going big right out of the gate.

Randi Dickman, broker associate for Re/Max Signature Properties, has been in the real estate business for 17 years and lately she’s been noticing a decline in interest for homes that let buyers enter the market and get their feet wet before eventually transitioning into a “forever home.”

Instead, that forever home — one with multiple bedrooms and bathrooms, along with a garage, basement and yard — is what many young buyers are searching for on their first trip through the real estate market.

“A lot of them are living at home until they’re 25-26 years old, so they have those first years from 20 to 26 to save the money, and that’s where they’re coming up with these large down payments,” Dickman said. “The millennial generation is living home longer, and so that’s giving them the opportunity to save their money.”

Moving into a larger home, to young couples, means no need to move again later on, even if a couple children are added to the equation.

The millennial generation is a “different beast,” according to Dickman, who handles properties in Monmouth, Ocean and Middlesex counties.

Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at CohnReznick in Roseland, also points to changing patterns among generations. Baby Boomers, for the most part, followed an immediate pattern of school-job-home.

“That still is probably the predominant map that most people are following, but it is no longer the only route that particularly-young adults view themselves traveling,” O’Keefe said.

South Jersey recovery key for NJ

Posted in Housing Recovery, South Jersey Real Estate | 50 Comments

From the Press of Atlantic City:

South Jersey real estate sales jumped last month, prices mixed

Homes sold faster all over South Jersey last month, with the number of closed deals up sharply in most of the region from April 2015.

Atlantic County led the way with an increase of almost 27 percent in completed sales of single-family homes over the year before, but prices continued to drop in the county, according to data from the New Jersey Association of Realtors.

The median price of a single home fell to $168,500 this April, down more than 12 percent from last year.

Cumberland and Ocean counties also saw double-digit increases in their volume of closed sales, with Cumberland’s going up 10.3 percent and Ocean’s up by 13.2 percent.

Cape May County had the smallest increase the number of single-home sales, at 4.4 percent, and prices for those properties dropped by more than 10 percent. The median price went down to $269,000.

But in the category of townhouses and condos, a popular option near the beaches and bays in many of that county’s shore towns, the number of deals was up nearly 35 percent from the year before.

And prices for those places also increased 6 percent, to a median of $429,000, all according to monthly figures from the New Jersey Association of Realtors.

Ain’t no America left for Americans like me

Posted in General | 74 Comments

April Existing Home Sales beat estimates

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 18 Comments

From CNBC:

Existing home sales hit 5.45 million units in April, vs. expectations of 5.4 million

U.S. home resales rose more than expected in April, suggesting the economy continues to gather pace during the second quarter.

The National Association of Realtors said on Friday existing home sales increased 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 5.45 million units.

March’s sales pace was revised slightly higher to 5.36 million units from the previously reported 5.33 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales rising to a 5.40 million-unit pace last month. Sales were up 6.0 percent from a year ago.

However, there were regional variations. Home sales surged in the Midwest by 12.1 percent last month and also rose in the Northeast while the South and West lost steam.

The number of unsold homes on the market rose 9.2 percent to 2.14 million in April from March, but was down 3.6 percent compared to a year ago.

“Housing shortage is still present,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.At April’s sales pace, it would take 4.7 months to clear the stock of homes on the market, up from 4.4 months in March. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

The share of first-time homebuyers rose to 32 percent from 30 percent last month and a year ago.Nationwide, the median home price stood at $232,500. That was an increase of 6.3 percent from one year ago.It was the 50th consecutive month house prices rose on a year-on-year basis, Yun added.

The Zombie Census

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 38 Comments

From the Philly Inquirer:

Still No. 1: New Jersey’s supply of ‘zombie’ homes

The number of U.S. houses left vacant because of foreclosure was down at the start of the second quarter compared with the same period last year. But New Jersey’s share of these “zombies” continues to be tops in the nation, real estate information provider RealtyTrac said Thursday.

Zombie homes are defined as houses that mortgage borrowers vacated for which the foreclosure process was never completed.

In the United States overall, just 19,187, or 4.7 percent, of residential properties in the foreclosure process were zombies as of May, according to the Irvine, Calif., company, which monitors foreclosures nationwide. New Jersey claimed 4,003 of them. Pennsylvania had 572.

In South Jersey, zombies totaled 1,268 as of May, making up 11.2 percent of homes in foreclosure in Burlington County, 9.4 percent in Camden County, and 8 percent in Gloucester County.

RealtyTrac reported that Gloucester County had the fewest foreclosures, 2,975, and the fewest zombies, 237. Burlington County had 468 zombies among its 4,185 houses in foreclosure.

Only Camden County showed a year-over-year decline, 5.5 percent, in the number of zombies. Of the region’s three South Jersey counties, it had the most foreclosures, 5,967, and the most zombies, 563.

Typically, New Jersey has a roughly three-year timeline for moving houses in foreclosure’s many stages through the courts. At an average 1,103 days, it is the longest in the country. (Pennsylvania’s timeline is about 554 days.) High volume has exacerbated the Garden State’s situation, lawyers and experts say.

Price Reduced! Frick Mansion Still Empty

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate, Price Reduced | 38 Comments

With the Realtors posting snarky lowball pieces about overpriced NJ houses – maybe it is time to call it quits. From Realtor.com:

6 Years Later, New Jersey’s Most Expensive Home Still Waiting for Its First Resident

In this age of tiny houses and the less-is-more aesthetic of millennials, can a house be too large for its market—even when that market sports a median home price around the $5 million mark? That has to be a question that occurs when viewing this massive 30,000-square-foot home listed for $48,880,000 in tony Alpine, NJ.

New Jersey’s most expensive home is only 30 minutes from Manhattan, and the property has been on and off the market since being built in 2010 by real estate mogul Richard Kurtz. Currently, Alpine’s median listing price is $4,995,000, and an estate just down the road from this mansion is listed for $27.8 million.

Kurtz originally had the home built for him and his wife, but they decided it was too much house after construction was done. He put it on the market in 2010. The home has apparently never been lived in, although one report noted Kurtz has been paying roughly $300,000 a year in property tax since it was built.

Listing agent Sharon Kurtz with Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty–Alpine didn’t return a request for comment on the mansion.

The listing price for the home, known as the Stone Mansion, has fallen from $68 million in 2010 to $56 million in 2013 to $49 million later that year to today’s price of $48.88 million. The manse features 12 bedrooms, 15 full bathrooms, and four half-baths. And, of course, there is every imaginable amenity, including an indoor basketball court, a 4,000-bottle wine cellar, gold fixtures in the bathrooms, and a master suite that is larger than most New York City apartments just across the Hudson.

A billion dollars in the hole

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 76 Comments

From the Record:

N.J. facing possible $1.1B budget gap over 2016, 2017, official says

New Jersey’s state budget could face a revenue shortage of $1.1 billion over two fiscal years, the state Legislature’s nonpartisan budget office said Tuesday, a dire assessment that came after lackluster income tax collections in the key month of April.

The revenue gap could lead to budget cutbacks or further reductions in the payments Governor Christie has been making in recent years to the state’s financially stressed pension funds for public workers.

Acting state Treasurer Ford M. Scudder and financial analysts from the Office of Legislative Services are scheduled to testify before the Assembly Budget Committee on Wednesday about Christie’s $34.8 billion budget proposal for the coming fiscal year. Experts are also expected to provide lawmakers with an update of New Jersey tax collections in recent months and of broader economic trends.

In total, the OLS is now forecasting that the state will collect $1.1 billion less in taxes than Christie is assuming for the budget that ends in June and for the one now being considered by lawmakers.

In the current fiscal year, OLS forecasts a shortfall of $487 million for the $34 billion budget. That shortfall would have to be balanced with either cuts or more revenue before June 30.

Lawmakers must approve a new, balanced budget before July 1. The proposed $34.8 billion plan Christie proposed earlier this year is off by $622 million, according to the OLS revenue estimates.

The $1.1 billion hole could intensify New Jersey’s budget problems, since Christie would have to find ways to balance the budget for both fiscal years — likely by scaling back some services or further slashing his proposed payments to New Jersey’s troubled pension system.

The revenue shortage could also complicate plans to phase out the estate tax and lower other rates as part of a deal between Democrats and Republicans to raise the gas tax to fund road construction and maintenance projects. The estate tax generates around $400 million for the state budget every year.

Lawmakers received an advance summary of the OLS budget testimony on Tuesday. In the memo, a copy of which was obtained by The Record, a budget analyst wrote that OLS had lowered its two-year revenue estimate by $943 million for the current fiscal year and fiscal year 2017, which begins in July, after measuring tax collections for “the important spring filing season.”

Of that $943 million revision, “Almost all (93 percent) … can be ascribed to the recent performance of the gross income tax,” wrote Catherine Brennan, an OLS analyst. The total revenue difference between Christie and the OLS is now at $1.1 billion, she added.

Warehousing Seniors Cheaply

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 77 Comments

From the NYT:

New Jersey Groups Convert Empty Buildings Into Homes for Seniors

Walk the halls of the Senior Residence at St. Peter the Apostle and you can see remnants of the convent that once was.

The modestly sized rooms hold only single beds. The round-topped design of some windows hints at the stained glass that once filled their frames. The former chapel transformed quite handily into a library and sitting room. An old confessional now serves as a medicine closet.

The nonprofit organization Build With Purpose opened this boarding-home-style residence for older adults in River Edge in 2013, the first of what it hopes will be many other converted buildings like it in New Jersey.

The mission is to find shuttered buildings that can convert easily into housing for the state’s aging population. The nonprofit, based in Metuchen, is renovating another convent in Edison into a similar congregate home, and it has plans to open 100 new units of senior housing in 1,000 days, hoping to change not only former convents but also decommissioned school buildings and some of the abandoned motels that line the Jersey Shore.

“We’re looking for the kind of real estate that best lends itself to use as senior housing,” Brian Keenan, president of Build With Purpose, told The Record of Woodland Park.

Repurposing is the name this charity uses. But the strategy — also called adaptive reuse — is a trend that has recently taken hold in New Jersey, although it can sometimes face as many financing and bureaucratic hurdles as developing a vacant lot, affordable housing experts say.

In Montvale, the United Way of Bergen County is transforming a long-shuttered school into a 10-apartment building for older adults, a renovation expected to cost $1.6 million to $2 million because the classrooms are about the size needed for the one-bedroom apartments they are scheduled to become. Building from scratch could have cost more like $3 million, and “this is certainly greener,” Thomas M. Toronto, president of the organization, said.

Similarly, three Burlington County schools were converted into apartment buildings for the elderly in the past few years by an ecumenical housing organization.

Affordable housing for older adults and others with special needs remains in high demand in North Jersey, with spaces often filling up before the buildings open and waiting lists stretching several years long. Affordable housing developers often bemoan the high cost of land and the lack of centrally located open spaces that are better suited to those in need of supportive services.

Transforming schools, convents and motels makes the most sense because the original buildings are often the right size and layout to convert into housing, Mr. Keenan said.

“Our mission is to find a new purpose for abandoned properties,” he said. “The question we try to answer with every project is: How do we use real estate for social change?”

Sandy wrecks go cheap

Posted in Housing Recovery, New Development, Shore Real Estate | 53 Comments

From the Record:

Buyers line up for 400 homes wrecked by Superstorm Sandy

Matt Price and his wife, Carla, are gambling that the devastation inflicted by Superstorm Sandy will be their key to the American dream of home ownership.

The couple was among the successful bidders at an auction Wednesday that sold off the last of more than 400 flood-damaged houses that were purchased by New York state after the superstorm devastated shoreline communities in 2012.

Their prize was a modest, four-bedroom cape in Babylon that sits across from a boatyard and a canal that spilled over its bulkheads during the historic storm.

As part of a program to bail out distressed homeowners in the most flood-prone neighborhoods, the state paid $435,000 for the property, based on an estimate of what it was worth before the storm. Matt Price, a 30-year-old real estate broker, got it at auction for $145,000.

While the building was salvageable and partly repaired after the flood, he plans to tear it down and spend as much as $200,000 to build higher and sturdier to protect his investment.

“Sandy was a very unique situation,” he said, standing outside the Babylon home Friday. “Not to say that I don’t think it would happen again. I think it’s going to be a very rare occurrence if it ever did. The goal is to make it as resistant or stormproof as possible so that’s not an issue.”

This week, the state completed a series of auctions that began a year ago, selling 417 homes for $66 million. The state purchased the homes for $140.5 million, using funding provided by federal disaster relief after Sandy and Hurricane Irene, which struck in 2011.

State officials say there is an advantage to selling the homes for deep discounts to restore neighborhoods devastated by Sandy, which damaged thousands of homes, killed 182 people and caused about $65 billion in damage.

The houses “are properties we want to see on the tax rolls,” said Lisa Bova-Hiatt, executive director of the Governor’s Office of Storm Recovery.

The state demands all redevelopment of the properties be consistent with local zoning regulations, many of which have been strengthened after Sandy to require fortification against storm damage, including requirements to raise the living areas of rebuilt houses above the flood plain. Many shoreline neighborhoods have been filled with construction workers lifting structures higher.

NJ Foreclosure Plan – We’ll deal with it tomorrow

Posted in Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

From the Record:

N.J. continues to lag nation on clearing foreclosures

New Jersey led the nation in foreclosure starts in the first quarter, as the state continues to grapple with the fallout from the housing crash, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

About 11.5 percent of New Jersey mortgages were either in foreclosure or late on payments in the first quarter, almost double the national average of 6.5 percent, the MBA said.

While national foreclosure rates are back to pre-recession levels, New Jersey’s court system is still dealing with a large backlog of distressed properties. Last year, almost 36,000 residential foreclosures were filed in the state. So far this year, an average of about 2,500 foreclosures have been filed each month, according to the state Judiciary.

Mortgage troubles don’t just affect the homeowners involved, said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with the accounting firm CohnReznick in New York and Roseland. They also “influence the value of neighboring properties,” he said, because homes in foreclosure tend to be poorly maintained and sell at a discounted price. That affects appraisals and prices of nearby homes.

The national foreclosure and delinquency numbers in the first quarter reflect “a consistent downward trend that began in the second quarter of 2012,” according to Marina Walsh, an MBA vice president.

A check of the properties heading for foreclosure auction in North Jersey showed many properties in lower- and middle-income places like Hackensack, Garfield, Elmwood Park and Paterson, with unpaid mortgages in the $100,000 to $300,000 range.

But more affluent towns have not been immune. Lenders have filed foreclosure actions against properties with million-dollar mortgages in Allendale and Upper Saddle River, as well as an Alpine home where $2.6 million is owed.

Hubler does somewhat better in the real-world market

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, Risky Lending, Unrest | 103 Comments

From the Star Ledger:

Notorious ‘subprime villain’ Howie Hubler unloading Rumson estate for $4.5M

The former Morgan Stanley bond trader believed to have lost more money than any single trader in the history of Wall Street has put his Rumson estate on the market for $4.5 million, according to its Zillow.com listing.

Howie Hubler’s disastrous bets against risky subprime loans cost Morgan Stanley $9 billion and was chronicled by Michael Lewis in his book about the 2008 financial meltdown “The Big Short.”

The 6-bedroom estate, built in 1928, includes a pool, spa, cabana and tennis court on four acres. The home has an “awe-inspiring kitchen” with high-end appliances, a walk-out lower level with a 10-foot coffered ceiling, full kitchen, wine room, gym and second laundry room, according to the listing.

He paid $4.65 million for the home in 2006, near the peak of the housing bubble. That’s $150,000 more than the current listing price.

It’s the eighth most expensive listing in Rumson, according to Zillow. Taxes are $65,754 a year, records show.

Hubler, according to Time, “was a thriving derivatives trader up until his excruciating blunder. From 2004 to 2006, he placed big bets against the U.S. real estate bubble using credit default swaps — complex financial instruments that pool and repackage risky sub-prime mortgages to sell on to investors.

But the economy’s decline happened slower than he expected, and Hubler had to cover his costs by delving even deeper into the CDO business. When the real estate market collapsed in 2008, he was wiped out — nearly taking Morgan Stanley itself with him.” The Observer called him a “subprime villain” and “an unwitting icon of the financial crisis.”

Long road to recovery

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, National Real Estate | 113 Comments

From DSNews:

Three States Hold a Quarter of Foreclosure Inventory

While the nation’s foreclosure inventory and volume of 90-plus day delinquent mortgage loans have been on the steady decline nationwide as a whole, those levels remain elevated in some areas.

Namely in three states—Florida, New York, and New Jersey, which hold approximately one quarter of the nation’s homes currently in foreclosure and mortgages that are three months or more past due, collectively known as non-current inventory, according to Black Knight Financial Services’ March 2016 Mortgage Monitor released on Monday.

Florida leads the nation with slightly more than 145,000 in the two categories combined; New York is second with 133,000, and New Jersey is third with 107,000. But despite the high number of loans in foreclosure or three months delinquent in Florida, Black Knight estimates that at the current rate of reduction in the Sunshine State (36 percent), non-current inventory in Florida will normalize close to the same time as the national average—which Black Knight estimates to be mid-2018.

New York and New Jersey, with lower reduction rates of 21 percent and 22 percent, respectively, are estimated to take much longer to normalize in the areas of foreclosure inventory and severely delinquent loans. Black Knight estimates that New York and New Jersey will take five and six years from now, respectively, at their current rates of reduction to achieve their normal pre-crisis levels of serious delinquency.

“Despite the concentration of inventory in the two states, New York and New Jersey are not the slowest to recover when we look across the country,” Black Knight stated in the report. “They are actually number seven and nine nationally, respectively.”

Black Knight estimates that Wyoming, Maine, and Rhode Island, at their respective rates of reduction, would all take more than seven years to reach their 2000 to 2005 average severely delinquent levels.

We’re all going to struggle

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 79 Comments

From NJ Spotlight:

SPECULATORS, CASH SALES CROWD OUT HOME BUYERS IN SOME NJ TOWNS

Just off Route 9 in Forked River, blocks of newly rehabilitated and elevated homes are interrupted by the occasional lot overgrown by weeds on which might sit a damaged or vacant home or a foundation naked since superstorm Sandy.

Similar circumstances are visible on Passaic St. in Trenton, scarcely four blocks from the State Capitol, although the initial cause is different. There, the mix of homes includes some newly renovated, well-maintained, deteriorating or boarded-up, and a vacant lot. The city has been busy working on foreclosures.

To real-estate analysts and academics, the circumstances reflect New Jersey’s slow recovery from the big storm and the Great Recession. That has created problems for long-term residents, but buying opportunities for property investors, the experts said. The combination feeds into changing real-estate dynamics in much of the state, they said.

One thing both towns have in common is the number of speculators purchasing properties in all-cash sales. This is worrisome given that speculators often use the properties to build rental housing or simply sit on. In order to truly turn things around, locals want are buyers that will be invested in the community. Still, speculators can be seen as a positive: They usually choose up-and-coming communities to invest in.

In both towns, “if some of these properties had been sold earlier on, they probably would have brought good prices,” said Daren Blomquist, a vice president at RealtyTrac of Irvine, CA, a leading real-estate data firm. “Now, they’ve been sitting there for several years, in many cases empty.”

That wards off individual homebuyers. “There isn’t the interest that there might have been, because these properties may be in poor condition,” Blomquist said. That brings values down and when they finally do sell, it starts yet another cycle because the low values are reflected in comparables. This means local residents have trouble getting equity loans or get lower prices when they do want to sell.

Rogers acknowledged that some properties have been changing hands, but not necessarily to the new homeowners the city wants. They want homebuyers who will contribute to the community now, in order to turn things around. Thus, another goal of the redevelopment efforts, she said, is to “slow down speculation” by large investment interests amassing property.

The high rate of cash sales is not unknown. Some deals are always made for cash or its equivalents. Big developers write big checks for farmland. Real-estate trusts trade apartment complexes or office buildings. Cities like Newark and Trenton make single houses or lots available cheaply to new buyers. Parents transfer property to children.

But in a stable market, those deals account for about one-quarter of transactions, according to the real-estate firms. Thus, Morris County, a generally well-off area with employment centers and transportation links, had a cash sales rate of about 27 percent in the second quarter of 2006, according to RealtyTrac. It shot up for a bit, but it’s about 26 percent now.

In Ocean County, cash sales also were about 26 percent in the second quarter of 2006, according to RealtyTrac. When the recession hit, they climbed. By the first quarter of 2011, they were 46.6 percent.

There is another factor at play, according to James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, who scrutinizes development trends around the state.

Areas on the far fringes of metropolitan areas, with scant public transportation or indigenous industries, already are under stress, Hughes said. He has seen that in his own Hunterdon County, where he serves on an economic development group. There, rapid growth has halted and reversed.

In a 2014 study with fellow Rutgers professor Joseph Seneca, “New Jersey’s Postsuburban Economy,” Hughes documented some of the changes taking place as older, suburban residents leave the state and millennials and immigrants flock to urban areas.

In a five-year period, Brooklyn, NY, attracted one of every five people moving into the area, Hughes said. The fastest growing New Jersey suburb is Bergen County, “which had been losing people in the 1990s,” he said. Its public transit, employment centers, and proximity to New York City give it advantages over more remote areas, he said.

That trend is good news for communities on bus and rail lines, with downtowns for business, arts and restaurants, according to Hughes. Places like Somerville, and Asbury Park already have made gains, he said.

That is also good news for Trenton, according to Blomquist.

“As far as I know, it’s unique among state capitals, sitting on a river that is also the border, so it draws from another state,” he said.

But the gap between where New Jersey Transit’s Jersey Coast Line ends in Bay Head and the Atlantic City Line connects to Philadelphia leaves many communities without significant mass transit, Hughes said. The precipitous decline of Atlantic City jobs damages the same region’s economic prospects, he said.

“Even in parts of Monmouth County, millennials are saying it was a good place to grow up, but they don’t want to live there now,” Hughes said. “Their parents couldn’t wait to get out of Brooklyn, and the children can’t wait to get back to Brooklyn.”

In the near future, Reinhart said, “the Holmdels, the Colts Necks, the Howells, the West Windsors, those communities are going to be 60, 70 years old. And they’re not Hoboken, they don’t have a lot of homes with architectural significance.”

Farther south, those who can afford the cost of building Shore homes to withstand rising tides and strong storms are still making good investments, he said. But buying a home on a large lot in a sprawling suburb no longer has the same cachet.

“I think those places are going to struggle,” Reinhart said.