Or will it just tumble down?

Posted on July 11, 2025 by grim

From ROINJ:

N.J. to have nation’s 5th-largest homeownership affordability gap by 2030

You don’t have to tell prospective homeowners how difficult it is to buy a house in New Jersey in 2025. The bad news is it’s going to get even harder by 2030, according to HireAHelper, an online marketplace where consumers can find, compare and book local moving companies. 

New Jersey is predicted to have the ninth-most expensive median house price in the country by 2030 of $844,849. Garden State residents will need the second-highest household income to afford it, according to HireAHelper. With annual property costs, including mortgage and taxes, expected to top $70,104, households will need to earn $210,313, a 94.61% jump from current income levels to keep up affordability. That’s predicted to be the fifth-largest homeownership gap in the nation.

New Jersey is joined by eastern states New York, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire in the top 10 states with yawning affordability gaps. The rest of the top 10 are western states California, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

By 2030, home prices are projected to outpace income growth in all 50 states, with a national median of $615,103. Eight out of 50 states will have to see their household income double in five years to make predicted house prices affordable.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

Cool or crazy?

Posted on July 9, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Is North Jersey’s rental market finally cooling down? How hot the market is so far in 2025

There’s no doubt about it: Finding an apartment, especially an affordable one, in North Jersey is a difficult feat. But believe it or not, it’s a feat that has eased up — if only slightly — during 2025.

In RentCafe’s recent Hottest Rental Markets report, it ranked the top 20 U.S. rental markets based on how competitive they were during the first quarter of 2025.

North Jersey, which has consistently been named among the nation’s top markets, didn’t rank in the report’s top five. In fact, for the first time in at least two years, it didn’t even make the report’s top 10.

Instead, North Jersey — with Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Essex, Sussex, Hudson and Union counties included in the report — was named as the nation’s 11th-most-competitive rental market during this time. That is compared with this time last year, when our region ranked third overall.

“Interestingly, North Jersey’s rental market has softened, as shown by a sharp year-over-year drop in its RCI score,” the report says.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Last place to buy

Posted on July 7, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Detroit holding out as the last affordable housing markets

Priced out of your local housing market? It might be time to consider a move to the Midwest.

As home prices and mortgage rates remain high, just three US metropolitan areas — St. Louis, Detroit, and Pittsburgh — have homes for sale at prices that are, on average, comfortably affordable on a median income.

In all three cities, the median home was listed for under $300,000 as of May, putting a purchase in reach for households bringing in $70,000 to $80,000 a year, according to Realtor.com. Generally speaking, spending 30% of one’s income or less on housing is considered affordable.

Incomes haven’t kept up with home prices and interest rates, meaning the number of cities where most of the homes for sale meet the “30% rule” has shrunk.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 70 Comments

Sorry Sellers

Posted on July 6, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

NJ ‘mansion tax’ rates increase under new bill, now are paid by property sellers

Multimillion-dollar home sales in the Garden State will be subject to higher fees under the New Jersey mansion tax as part of a new bill that was passed in tandem with the state’s $58.78 million fiscal year 2026 budget.

The mansion tax, formally referred to as the “Assessment on Real Property Greater than $1 million” or “Additional Fees on Certain Transfers of Real Property Over $1 Million,” was originally signed into law in 2004 by then-Gov. Jim McGreevey.

The tax has historically charged homebuyers — unless negotiated to be paid by the seller — of properties worth $1 million or more a 1% supplemental realty transfer fee at the time of closing.

Taking effect on July 10, this new bill shifts the burden of the mansion tax, as well as the state’s controlling interest transfer tax for commercial properties, from property buyers to sellers.

It also maintains the original 1% fee for home sales worth $1 million to $2 million, but now also implements higher fees for increasingly expensive properties. This starts with a 2% fee for home sales worth $2 million to $2.5 million and increases by half a percentage point for every $500,000 more, topping out at 3.5% for property sales of more than $3.5 million.

Posted in General, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 25 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on July 3, 2025 by grim

From NBC:

U.S. job growth expected to have slowed in June as economy sends mixed signals

The U.S. economy continues to send mixed signals. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report job figures for June that may help clear up the picture.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast that 110,000 new payrolls were added in June. That would be the fewest since February, and it would be the fourth monthly decline in the past six months. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was expected to have climbed to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.

Consumers and businesses are still grappling with the uncertaintycaused by President Donald Trump’s policies, something further reflected in volatile data. 

On one hand, the inflation rate has so far proven stable, while average earnings continue to grow at a healthy clip. Stocks have returned to all-time highs, and in testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described overall economic conditions as “solid.”

“Look at labor force participation, look at wages, look at job creation,” Powell said. “They’re all at healthy levels now. I would say you can see perhaps a very, very slow continued cooling but nothing that’s troubling at this time.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 131 Comments

Jersey benefits most from SALT cap increase

Posted on July 2, 2025 by grim

From Axios:

Some homeowners could see tax breaks if Trump’s bill passes

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 61 Comments

Zillow Fights Back

Posted on July 1, 2025 by grim

From Business Insider:

The Zillow Blacklist is officially here

Pretty much every potential homebuyer looks for houses on the internet, scouring listings for the right facade and envisioning their couch in glossy photos of empty living rooms. A lot of the time, that digital touring pays off: The National Association of Realtors recently found that about half of purchasers end up finding the winning property online. For many house hunters, the never-ending cyberquest for that dream home includes a stop (or many) at Zillow.

If you count yourself among the 221 million monthly visitors who scan Zillow or one of its affiliated portals, like Trulia, you probably won’t notice any change in your home-scrolling habit on June 30. But it’s an important date for the biggest name in home search. Behind the scenes, Zillow is using its vast machinery to fight a battle that could determine where you find your next house — and whether it even appears on Zillow at all.

Starting Monday, Zillow will be banning home listings that have been marketed publicly by a real estate agent — which includes everything from planting a for-sale sign in the front yard to posting on Facebook — without being shared in the local databases that feed home listings to the rest of the real estate industry, including Zillow and other search websites, within one business day. The move is part of a broader fight over “exclusive inventory” or “hidden homes” — basically, properties advertised in some places but not others. In an attempt to seize more control over their listings, agents at some real estate brokerages have been advertising homes in internal databases or posting them only on their own websites, out of reach of the search portals.

While the fight has been going on for a few years, things have recently turned especially ugly. Compass, the largest real estate brokerage in the US by sales volume, sued Zillow in federal court last week over the new blacklist, and industry execs have spent months trading barbs via social media, speeches, and email blasts that reached thousands of agents across the country.

The back-and-forth leaves homebuyers and sellers in a weird spot. I’ve spent months talking to people around the industry about the hidden listings issue, and I’m left with one big conclusion: If you decide to hire an agent (which most people do), you should go into that relationship with open eyes. The rules of the game are changing. Consumers need to make sure they know exactly what they’re getting from their agents and how much they’ll be paying for those services. Buyers’ agents should also be able to explain how they’ll navigate a shifting landscape in which some listings may become harder to find.

Big companies are squabbling because they need your clicks, your home listings, and, ultimately, the commission checks that flow from your deal. Whether you’re a buyer or seller, your business is especially valuable right now. It can be daunting, but the upheaval may be advantageous if you play your next home transaction correctly.

Posted in General | 73 Comments

Sorry Millionaires

Posted on June 30, 2025 by grim

From WHYY:

Why are New Jersey housing costs continuing to rise — and who should pay for affordable housing?

On Monday, the New Jersey Legislature is expected to give final approval to the state’s fiscal year 2026 spending plan. The $58.8 billion budget is more than 2.5% higher than last year’s spending plan.

Part of the proposal calls for an increase in the real estate transfer fee for homes that sell for more than $2 million. If approved, sellers will pay $20,000 on  properties that are sold for $2 million. That fee will increase 2.5% on homes that sell between $2.5 million and $3 million.

Peter Chen, senior policy analyst for New Jersey Policy Perspective, said this increase makes sense at a time when housing costs are pricing many people, particularly low- and moderate-income residents, out of the state, and a lot of the funding for affordable housing already comes from the realty transfer fee.

“So increasing those funds to ensure that more people can actually afford to live in New Jersey who aren’t in the top 15% of home sales in the state, that’s important for ensuring the state is affordable for all,” he said.
…
Douglas Tomson, chief executive officer of New Jersey Realtors, said increasing the real estate transfer fee would be a serious mistake.

“A million-dollar home is a middle-class home in many parts of our state, so we’re talking average New Jerseyans that would be affected,” he said.

Tomson argued increasing the fee would hurt the state real estate market.

“It would definitely give a lot of buyers and sellers pause before they want to make an investment or before they get off the fence,” he said.

Grant Lucking, chief operating officer for the New Jersey Builders Association, agreed.

“It impacts the market and it’s just not something that lends to additional affordability in the state, which is something that the legislature has been working on,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 76 Comments

What happened with the house listed for $1?

Posted on June 27, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

Listed for $1, this suburban NJ home received multiple $550K offers: ‘Thankfully, it worked out very well for us’

In for a buck, in for $550,000.

A Newark, New Jersey real estate broker raked in more than half a million dollars yesterday on a listing asking just $1. The colonial-style home, located in a quiet suburban enclave of the city, was on offer for a mere seven days.

Brendan DaSilva made headlines last week when he listed his own three-bed, two-bath investment property on the outskirts of Newark for that pocket-change sum. His plan, as reported by NJ.com, was to let the market decide on a fair price. 

“Thankfully, it worked out very well for us,” DaSilva told The Post, saying he received three $550,000 offers. 

DaSilva’s ambitious sales tactic was more than just a clever gimmick — the endeavor was an experiment in markets and marketing. 

Although he’s never seen a broker list a home for $1, DaSilva said, he’s seen plenty of homes under-priced for the sake of optics. 

“What winds up happening is you go, ‘Oh, my God, this house in New Jersey sold for $200,000 over ask,’” he said. “It’s make believe.” 

So, DaSilva leaned into the fantasy. 

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 230 Comments

Tick tick tick

Posted on June 26, 2025 by grim

From Mortgage News Daily:

Home Prices Fell More Than Expected in April

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don’t, they were down 0.4% from March.

FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)

  • April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0%
  • YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025

Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%).

The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April’s declines to some extent.

Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

  • YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March
  • MoM (raw): +0.6%
  • MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

This marks the smallest annual national gain since mid‑2023—further evidence of continued deceleration.

Posted in General | 68 Comments

Strongest market in the country?

Posted on June 24, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s new home listings drop while these states see them skyrocket

Fewer homes hit New Jersey’s housing market last month compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com.

A total of 9,508 homes were listed statewide in May, making for a decrease of less than 1% compared to the same time last year.

However, most of the nation saw the percentage of newly listed homes increase.

North Carolina and Wyoming saw the largest increase in newly listed homes at over 18% and 17%, respectively.

According to a recent Redfin report, nationwide new listings hit an almost three-year high.

“My advice to homeowners: If you’re planning to sell in the next year or two, do it now because we don’t know what’s going to happen with home values or the larger economy,” Hazel Shakur, a Redfin agent based in Maryland, said in the report. “Buyers should know that because of the uncertainty in the air, they may be able to get a home for under asking price or get concessions from the seller.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments

Zillow revises down annual home price forecast

Posted on June 23, 2025 by grim

From Fast Company:

Housing market map: Zillow just released its updated home price forecast for 400-plus housing markets

Heading into the year, Zillow economists forecasted that U.S. home prices ​​were likely to rise 2.6% in 2025.

However, this year, the housing market—in particular in the Sun Belt—was softer than expected and Zillow has made several downgrades to its forecast for national home prices.

This week, newly released data from Zillow shows that U.S. home prices have decelerated to a year-over-year increase of just 0.4%. Zillow economists now expect U.S. home prices to decline by 0.7% between May 2025 and May 2026.

With inventory up nearly 20% over the previous year, buyers had more options in May than at any time since July 2020. Despite higher sales, sellers still outnumber buyers,” wrote Zillow economists. “This gives buyers more time to decide and more power in negotiations. Zillow’s market heat index shows a balanced market nationwide, one that’s a lot more buyer-friendly than in recent years. Competition among buyers declined to the lowest level seen in May in Zillow records, reaching back through 2018.”

Not only do Zillow economists predict soft national home price growth this year, but they’re also predicting that the housing market will only see 4.1 million U.S. existing home sales in 2025. That would mark the third-straight year of suppressed existing home sales. For comparison, in pre-pandemic 2019, there were 5.3 million existing home sales in the U.S.

Zillow economists added: “Home values have fallen in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas over the past year, and sellers cut prices on almost 26% of listings nationwide—another May high in Zillow records. Homes that sell typically do so in 17 days, about four more than last year and only two days fewer than pre-pandemic averages.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 55 Comments

Get real…

Posted on June 22, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

This New Jersey home, worth more than $500K, is on the market for just $1

Got a buck?

A New Jersey Realtor has listed a Newark house for $1, calling the move a social experiment intended to evaluate the current state of the housing market.

Broker Brendan DaSilva said he bought the colonial-style home on Reynolds Place for $300,000, and then invested $100,000 into renovating it.

Prior to that, records show the home, which is situated on a dead-end street, was sold in 1974 for $36,500.

The three-bedroom, 1½-bathroom residence was first built in 1945 on a 4,791-square-foot lot on Newark’s border with South Orange. Seton Hall University is just down the block.

DaSilva believes the house is worth at least $525,000. The new owners should expect to pay at least $6,564 in property taxes.

But the $1 listing is no joke. 

Bids can start at that price, and DaSilva told NJ.com that “whoever comes up with highest bid is the offer we’ll go forward with.”

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 42 Comments

I’ll die before I sell you my home

Posted on June 21, 2025 by grim

From the Hill:

1 in 3 baby boomers say they’ll never sell home: Redfin

About a third of baby boomers who own their homes don’t expect to ever part with them, according to a new poll.

The survey, which was conducted by Ipsos last month for nationwide real estate company Redfin, found that another 30 percent of the post-World War II generation said they might sell at some point — just not within the next decade.

Comparatively, about a quarter of homeowners who are part of Gen X — loosely defined as people born between 1965 and 1980 — say they will never sell their homes. About 20 percent of Millennials and the Gen Z cohort who own homes said they will never sell.

According to Redfin, the tendency among older Americans to stay in the homes they own is putting additional stress on the housing market and making it more difficult for younger people to find affordable places to buy that are fit to raise families. Nearly 90 percent of the boomer-owned dwellings are single-family homes.

“While inventory is improving, supply is tight for young house hunters looking for family homes, especially in suburban areas where homes priced like starter homes, yet large enough for families, are scarce,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an analysis of the poll’s findings. “With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it’s challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 30 Comments

Can’t afford to live there either…

Posted on June 20, 2025 by grim

From News12:

Report: Home prices hit record high in Suffolk; Nassau market slows slightly

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000 and the average price of a single-family home is up to $690,000 in Suffolk.

According to by OneKey MLS, the median price of a single-family home in Suffolk in May was $690,000, up 6.2% from last year.

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000. The number is still up from this time last year, but not a record high.

Nassau’s all-time high was $835,000. That number was hit last August.

Huntington-based realtor Nick Orlando says it’s now common to see someone go at least $100,000 over asking price.

“That’s what’s really keeping prices up, are these few buyers that are just really trying to be as competitive as possible,” he said.

Part of the reason why prices of homes in Suffolk are more expensive now, according to realtors, is that prices in Nassau are even higher, causing people to house hunt further east and creating more demand.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 55 Comments